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Why It's Going To Be A Whole Lot Worse Than In The 1930s

Tyler Durden's picture


As Mike Maloney forecast in the mid-2000s, the roller-coaster ride continues in world markets and economies. His - so far - spot on projection that "first the threat of deflation (1), followed by a helicopter drop (2), followed by big reflation (3), followed by a real deflation (4), and then followed by hyperinflation (5)," appears to be rotating from stage 3 to stage 4 (as we noted here). However, as Maloney explains in this brief clip, while we have seen great deflations before, in the '30s one-third of the monetary base was backed by gold, now we virtually nothing as "people do not understand the scale of the emergency that's going on right now."


Five brief minutes on a Sunday... watch!



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Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:54 | 4204511 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

So which stage is Japan at?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:56 | 4204523 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:18 | 4204577 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

the 30's didn't have drones or fukushima. i'm long pain and deprivation

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:45 | 4204667 fonestar
fonestar's picture

This is more fear porn from FUDmaster Flex and the gang.  Anybody who knows history knows that people in the 1930's didn't even have Bitcoin to protect their wealth (Satoshi was still apprenticing).  Obviously things could never get that bad now that we have Bitcoin nodes spread around the globe.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:59 | 4204705 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

^ Definition of self parody right there.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:27 | 4204968 Popo
Popo's picture

Executive order, June 1 2014 - "Domestically based US businesses forbidden from accepting Bitcoin or non-US Currency"

That's all it takes. Followed by similar bans in foreign nations.

BTC loses 90% of its value overnight.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:37 | 4205027 fonestar
fonestar's picture

False.  An attempt to ban Bitcoin would make it the currency of choice for the black market.  Bitcoin would double or tripple in value almost immediately.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:51 | 4205097 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

You went overbord with your previous response in this thread and it is now obvious that you are a troll.

Carry on.


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:54 | 4205109 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I am hardly a troll.  I am here to spread the wisdom and gospel of Satoshi.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:05 | 4205147 akak
akak's picture

Is "Satoshi" one of the given names of the one true deity, the Holy Flying Spaghetti Monster (meatballs be upon him)?

May you be blessed by the touch of his divine noodly appendage.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:08 | 4205562 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I just want you to know I appreciate your humor every day.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:33 | 4205605 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'Any transaction not settled in a formalised currency will not be deductible for tax purposes'.

Boom, bitcoin goes to zero instantly.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:53 | 4205646's picture

We are huge fans of you and what you add here on ZH, but this was a little bit lame :) (sorry, had to)

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 02:46 | 4205788 economics9698
economics9698's picture


Mon, 12/02/2013 - 12:39 | 4206693 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Bitcoins, are they the new Wooden Nickels? And about storing the bitcoins on a harddrive... you really need to tune up your EMP-proof, compression algo failure-proof, dual and quadruple mirror site, fail-proof procedures. Also, write down that password! Wot if hackerz scramble yer data or the Bitcoin site closes down or yer aksess to da 'net goes "way down"?

Maybe security in a buried Mason jar is not as obsolete as many think..

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:54 | 4205099 Popo
Popo's picture

Huh? Stupidest argument ever, Fonestar. Try again.

Payment regulations for US businesses are extremely easy to enact and the effect on BTC will be nearly instantaneous.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:57 | 4205116 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Payments are extremely easy to conceal using Bitcoin for those who know what they're doing.  Your government can do nothing about Bitcoin because Bitcoin is a global phenomenon and it doesn't care about what some grey suits in Washington do or don't do.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:04 | 4205148 Popo
Popo's picture

That's very true.

But the entire argument being put forth by Bitcoin enthusiasts is that mainstream acceptance is driving value.

Now you're making the opposite argument.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:13 | 4205183 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I have not personally made that argument.  It is partially true but there are many different user groups who are getting behind Bitcoin for their own reasons.  The biggest reason it is rising in value is that it is a superior product to the dollar-banking system.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:39 | 4205271 daveO
daveO's picture

Yet, it is illegal under Legal Tender law. If I have gold or silver in hand, I can trade on a local basis w/o gov. interference. 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:57 | 4205328 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Whose laws?  Do you think everyone on Earth lives in the lower 48 or something?  Do yourself a favour and take a trip, your laws are mocked and made fun of all around the globe.  In fact, pretty much the only thing that you can do inside the United States that you can't do in many other places is own guns.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:54 | 4205524 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

"you can't do in many other places is own guns."

Yes, and I thank God almighty often for this very fact, so that when trolls who don't know when to STFU about digital promises and imaginary wallets that come crashing down and are knocking on my door for some help, allows me the right to defend myself. 

Worst case scenario? You come to my door and bore me almost to death, at that point owning a gun allows me to take myself out of my own misery because you STILL don't STFU.

Good grief man, get a life!

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 03:41 | 4205831 Doña K
Doña K's picture


I admire your tenacity, but just think that the weak link is the internet(s). By your own acceptance that .gov is in panic mode with bitcoin, when things get rough, the internet or parts of it or certain web pages, or some other combo will be restricted and your local farmer only recognizes silver.

In the 30's grandpa made some great silver deals for real estate. Careful you don't put too much money in bitcpoin.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:19 | 4205198 WOAR
WOAR's picture

I like how you think non-transferable wealth has value.

I could value dog shit at $1,000,000,000 but, if nobody takes it, it is absolutely, positively, completely, worthless.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:35 | 4205262 daveO
daveO's picture

Legal Tender law makes that redundant. So, why aren't they yet enforcing it? Incompetence, or setting a trap?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 01:15 | 4205673 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

I agree, there is no way they would talk nice about a true competitor to the dollar. They already have a way of controlling it. I've covered how the gov could manipulate it, but lets try another tack. Hackers have already said it is traceable, the gov may have perfected tracing and throws hundreds of bitcoin lovers in jail in one tax evasion raid. There are a million ways of crushing this thing. Don't think for a second it will go main stream.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 16:17 | 4207415 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Also, the way big retail accepting bitcoin blah in the news would never be allowed. You have to think they are establishing another network/crush this one. Bitcoin's best friend is tptb one way or another.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:07 | 4204727 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

very confident of you.

Hows ur cyber stash going, Bots cracked your wallet yet?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 12:01 | 4206547 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

THAT is Bitcoin's huge flaw as far as I'm concerned.  Digital money that can be stolen remotely and anonymously with no trail.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:07 | 4204728 negative rates
negative rates's picture

That's why they call her skippy, cause she spreads so easy!

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:43 | 4205063 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Damn! I never heard that one before! That cracked me up!


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:00 | 4204885 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

fonestar, how can bitcoin protect your wealth when it too is backed by fiat currency?  bitcoin is just another way to use it.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:03 | 4204895 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin can facilitate transfer of wealth just as easily under a gold standard as a fiat standard.  Bitcoin is not money but it is a measure of account.  I look at each Bitcoin as a share in the Bitcoin network.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:28 | 4204998 Popo
Popo's picture

That's a very good way of thinking about all Ponzi schemes.

I looked at my Madoff investment as a share of his empire. The underlying zero value never bothered me because the value of my "share" was growing so nicely.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:42 | 4205052 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Ponzi schemes are by nature centralized.  Bitcoin is an anarchal network.  So your comparison makes no sense.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:03 | 4205142 Popo
Popo's picture

You're really out of your league in this discussion and you should go back to your halfwit BTC blogs.

And centralization is not a requirement of Ponzi schemes. Many famous schemes like the Airplane game were decentralized and rapidly spawned thousands of separate distinct ponzi's. Matrix Ponzi schemes are also by definition decentralized.

Try again, fonestar.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:12 | 4205168 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Out of my depth hey?  I guess that is why the Bitcoin forums are filled with computer scientists and yours is filled with uh, well, ah.... people who can touch things?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:43 | 4205288 daveO
daveO's picture

That does it. If computer scientists are involved, I'm going with 5000 yrs of history. It's a trap.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:00 | 4205544 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

If you've lived your life looking at a little screen and twiddling your fingers you would think that you were a computer scientist too.


Stack On


Mon, 12/02/2013 - 05:57 | 4205940 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

fonestar's point here, for me, is precicely the weakest link for bitcoin. its an elitist currency that only computer nerds can use with full confidence. I'm technically savvy enough to use bitcoin, but not enough to appreciate how robust the coding may or may not be. my parents, who can barely use email, would never trust it.

so i cant see it ever being used for more than a fraction of the worlds transactions

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:09 | 4205566 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Computer scientists are just nerds for math and obscure programming language, it's not like they are economists or historians...


Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:38 | 4205618 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Computer scientists? Until tax advisers tell you it's a good idea forget it.

Computer scientists. Do me a fucking favour....

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 04:20 | 4205871 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

are they the same scientist that worked on obombercare?


if you like your scientist you can keep them ;)

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:16 | 4205403 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yeah, tell that to the douchbag who has $9M of BitCoins sitting at the bottom of a Jersey dump right now, because he threw out his fried hard drive with his BitCoin info on it-  whoops.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:55 | 4205528 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

You sure that fat fucker RINO Cristie didn't snarf it down?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 05:09 | 4205907 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Jersey is in England. New Jersey is a State in New England, USA.


It was a Brit that trashed his Hard Drive.


If Chris Christie boarded a Jet for England the plane could not leave the ground until they offloaded some Fuel to compensate. Thus the jet will run out of Kerosene before ever making it to England. Therefore it is a physical impossibility to fly that fat fucker to England. You are stretching for miracles as a jet crash eliminating him would be a miracle. /sarcasm



Mon, 12/02/2013 - 06:49 | 4205980 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Just out of curiousity what are you hedging with, the Iraqi Dinar?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 10:02 | 4206177 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"Bitcoin is not money but it is a measure of account."

Hmmmmmmm . . . .

I'm skeptical about BC, but not totally against it. Mainly because I need to know a lot more about it than I do now.

But statements like the above do not make a good case.

It sounds more like an ex - Amay pusher.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:34 | 4205258 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

I'll see your bitcoin and raise you a junkcoin that Maloney isn't far off from the mark.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:32 | 4204793 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

This isn't at all like the 30's. The 30's did not have the organized global governance (of banks) we have now, or the IMF.

If this gets anything close to 2008 levels of scary, the PTB will meet in a remote location and decide how to divide up the global spoils. The Fed Chairman and the IMF will be hailed as heros by the American't sheeple for "saving the economy again". And they will embrace their new heavily devalued international currency - they might even still call it "the dollar" so as not to stir the Walmart / Facebook farm animals. They may notice less beef and more Soylent Green in their slightly more expensive McDee's combo meal, but other than that it will be a non-event.


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:12 | 4205167 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

@diesheepledie...............your comment is why I read 0hedge....

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:51 | 4205301 daveO
daveO's picture

Assuming you're not being sarcastic.

International Bankers were every bit as sophisticated back then. Inflation of the 20's was created by the US bailing out the British cost of WW1. When things collapsed they got their man, FDR, elected in '32 to promote re-inflation thru debt, since Hoover wasn't doing enough for them. Things really haven't changed at all. They're stilling cheating us via inflation. 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 19:09 | 4208044 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

No sarcasm whatsoever. The bankers were sophisticated back then, yes. But nationalism prevented a true global banking system like we have now. The two R's and JPM did operate with impunity across borders, but it was nothing like we have today. Not to mention that the major currencies were still backed by precious metals back then.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:07 | 4204729 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

Great Doom Porn. I almost messed myself!

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:21 | 4204768 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Almost?  I did suffer a brownout!

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:43 | 4205061 tsx500
tsx500's picture

I sharted

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:59 | 4204526 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Glow worm and/or Flied Lice?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:06 | 4204538 akak
akak's picture


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:57 | 4204694 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Wasn't "Glow Worm" that Argentine prison guard that totured people under the Junta? 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:56 | 4204521 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Great piece, but it's not all about money. 

Two points.

1  What Bernanke/Yellen are doing is an effort to save the largest banks at the expense of everything and everyone else.  Nothing more or less.

2  It's much worse than the thirties.  In the thirties most people lived on self-sufficient farms or in small towns serving farms, ranches or fishing.  You produced your own food and energy or had extended families who did.  It was much closer to the Amish way of life than most modern people can imagine, and it was sustainable.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:43 | 4204660 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

massive private bankruptcies in the 30's...massive public one'e this time around? we just didn't have much Government back then either.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:45 | 4204662 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

When you are accustomed to 'food' in plastic packaging, you are fucked son.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:11 | 4204740 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Or- When more than 40 million people are accustomed to the SNAP program for food, and there are 90 million people who have dropped out of the work force, and many are reliant on welfare, and those programs disappear, you are fucked.  I'm afraid that when the SHTF, these people along with their government enablers will come for the resouces, including gold/silver, food, weapons, bullets, of the few remaining productive people.  I don't know if gold can protect anyone from that.

Just a thought.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:23 | 4204777 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

"I'm afraid that when the SHTF, these people along with their government enablers will come for the... bullets of the few remaining productive people."

So give them to them

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:28 | 4205235 ImReady
ImReady's picture

Yep, they better have good reflexes though beacause mine will be coming at them from 800-3500fps.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:40 | 4205051 10mm
10mm's picture

Gold is insurance only

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:02 | 4204718 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Zombie hoards cometh!

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:52 | 4204861 Promethus
Promethus's picture

After watching the Black Friday store fight videos with people going at it for discounted crap, I think it will be worse than the thirties. The thirties were tough times for self reliant people. The next crisis will be tough times for fat, lazy, stupid people with an overweening sense of entitlement.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:05 | 4205346 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Excellent point re Amish

This is some very good research that anticipates what collapse looks like

The author argues that there are many key hubs (e.g. global finance... just in time supply chains) - when one hub busts the whole thing unravels and nobody can put it back together again (a market economy does not react well to central planning... too many moving parts)


I was just think about how food is one of these key hubs - in the US huge amounts of natural gas is used to make fertilizer ---  now imagine what happens when capital dries up for fracking when the economy tanks ----  no more printed money flowing in to drill ---  and the price of energy plummets.


That means the end of fracked gas --- which means the price of gas will then go through the roof ---- and that means VERY expensive food ---- or more likely MASS STARVATION --- there will be no new investment in expensive extraction like deep sea and fracking because the market will not be able to pay the price --- because people will not have jobs....

So what will happen is the fields --- which are effectively dead soil without chemical fertilizer and pesitice ---- will yield nothing.

This is just one of the infinite number of Black Swans coming our way



Mon, 12/02/2013 - 11:00 | 4206308 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

kaiserhoff:  "What Bernanke/Yellen are doing is an effort to save the largest banks at the expense of everything and everyone else.  Nothing more or less."

Exactly. All the 'save the economy' stuff is nothing but b.s. propaganda.

(And there may even be a bigger & higher level objective of crashing the global economy in order to raise a new global governance from the rubble. It's more difficult to determine if this is the case, however.)

Its all a big scam which is only held in place by the victims ignorance.

I'd be curious to know what percentage of the population was aware of the scam in the 1930s versus today. We do have the internet, but most people that I know personally are clueless and resist waking up.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:23 | 4204966 tempo
tempo's picture

My 20+ year old grandson was a C student in HS. Is going to college on financial aid, free Obamacare, and food stamps. He is majoring in cultural studies with a C- average, taking minimum 12 hours per semester, smoking a lot of weed and sexing all the time. He has plenty of free time to sleep in till noon, eats fast food and drinks lots of beer, plays the latest most violent video games all night or watch the 200 channel HD TV that he and his new friends have. He has the latest iphone and loves to post on facebook and twitter. He expects to stay in college 6 years+. He never expects to have a full time job and will likely move back in w Mom. His dream job is protesting inequities between the rich and poor. Would like to shut down freeway to make life unbearable for the fools who work full time and pay taxes.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:39 | 4205045 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Sounds downright 'mercan, exceptional even.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 11:39 | 4206471 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

I've seen lots of times where Mexican guys (probably a few illegals among them) were standing out at the Home Depot parking lot looking for work. I've never seen one of those guys begging for handouts. Seen lots of Americans doing that though.

If you provide incentives for behavior, that's what you get.  Too many people are getting fat off of this including colleges, banks, politicians buying votes, contractors, and this lazy ass kid.

This whole damned thing is coming down. It'd be nice if it got it over with so maybe we had a chance of making something better out of the freakin' rubble.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:54 | 4205102 tsx500
tsx500's picture

put this kid in the oval office , now !      he sounds just as qualified as the current occupant .

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:12 | 4205573 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I would disown any dipshit like that.


Mon, 12/02/2013 - 16:34 | 4207496 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Wow, shoot him before he breeds.   My condolences in advance. 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:38 | 4204460 seek
seek's picture

I have no doubt that once this financial system works its magic in the next 5-10 years, that the events connected to its collapse will be written about for centuries, if not millenia from now, not unlike how the fall of the Roman empire is discussed today.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:14 | 4204564 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Large scale war will almost certainly come into play.  It will be interesting to see how the "victors" will record history.  Depending how things play out, will anyone be left to document this clusterfuck?  There are some fucked up SOB's with access to lots of firepower, and they won't go quietly when things really disintegrate.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:06 | 4204725 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

War is hope.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:48 | 4205077 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Truth is treason, in the empire of Lies.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:26 | 4204980 PLira
PLira's picture

Just dial "00000000" :-)

This news is about 10 years or more old. Rcycle and repeat. Now the code under the currnt admin is "NO"


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:26 | 4204981 PLira
PLira's picture

shit double posted, apologies


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:09 | 4204927 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."  Albert Einstein.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:52 | 4205098 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And BitCoins!

Don't forget the BitCoins!

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:55 | 4205107 tsx500
tsx500's picture

fonestar ?    paging fonestar !

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:59 | 4205542 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Please NO! No more paging pornstar please! Don't feed him, he may spit or throw more feces at his handlers.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:57 | 4205325 daveO
daveO's picture

World wars are financed by banksters. When banking was local, so were wars.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:26 | 4204609 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

I have no doubt that once this financial system works its magic in the next 5-10 years, that the events connected to its collapse will be written about for centuries, if not millenia from now, not unlike how the fall of the Roman empire is discussed today.


Yeah... as long as there are still enough non-iradiated bipeds to write the books.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:37 | 4204462 centerline
centerline's picture

financial crisis (theft) = sovereign crisis (global in nature) = political crisis (moprhed into public crisis) = currency crisis.  Hyperinflation is last stage, short lived, and will be seen at first as welcome relief.  Scary.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:38 | 4204464 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Wizard of OZ

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:41 | 4204471 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And why the Kardashians will be alright because celebrity trash in Murica make tens of millions a year to be celebrity trash... that biatch will never work one day in her fucking pathetic life yet she'll live better than 90% of Americans. Disgusting.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:09 | 4204556 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

...better than 98 to 99% of Americans. Big difference, trust me.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:59 | 4204707 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

If you call being married to Kanye West living well.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 00:28 | 4205596 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I, for one, would certainly consider being married to Kanye West a living hell. That guy is about the douchiest mofo on the planet.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 03:48 | 4205835 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

I can't believe I'm replying to this, but the Kardashians make their own money.  They have several TV shows, a clothing store, their own clothing line at Sears, modeling/appearance gigs, etc.  You may not like the WAY they work, but they DO work.  

I'm not a fan of theirs, but I don't hate them or their success.  Why do you?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:41 | 4204472 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Predictions that don't focus entirely on oil are of no value.  The 1930s didn't have 7 billion people and it had a presumption of infinite oil.

So don't bother making predictions until you look at this site

and its oil consumption numbers for the China and India dropdown selection on the left.  Have a look at that black line's curve on the right.  Understand what's what.


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:45 | 4204496 centerline
centerline's picture

Been awhile since someone mentioned EROEI on ZH from what I have seen.  I haven't even bothered.  It is the ultimate "up yours" to the whole infinite growth concept that is the human ponzi scheme we were born into.

Realistically, I think the shit storm that we are now firmly within is going to seriously reduce demand and skew what otherwise would be a peak oil disaster.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:14 | 4204568 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I think that what we are experiencing is, in part, due to oil supplies and EROEI.  I remember bitching bcause gas was $1.10/gal.  Now, I'm hoping that it stays below $3.00 where I am until at least the end of my elk hunt that starts in a week.  The more expensive energy is, the less time that our ponzi economy can stand, and energy has gotten more expensive.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:33 | 4204634 Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

Demand may plummet, but think of all the oil and gas company debt tied to the banking system.  There will also be a complete and utter decimation of credit and thus to the machinery to continue drilling and exploration.  Supply will deadpan even worse than demand crater, since people will still need to eat, and transport at least some of their goods and food.  Peak oil is the death knell we will finally wake up to.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:11 | 4205170 Matt
Matt's picture

Only a 10% tightening in credit? Seems pretty optimistic to me.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:17 | 4205347 daveO
daveO's picture

Peak oil = Big Oil Monopoly. I guess I'm the only one who remembers them (gov) touting, back in the 70's, that we'd run out by 2000. Still works, on a new generation today. Oil will eventually be replaced, after it gets priced out of the market, unless they can get a Legal Energy law passed similar to Legal Tender law(they're currently using the EPA for this purpose). The thing we have in common with the 70's is FIAT dollars not backed by gold since Aug. 1971. Back then, just like now, people started drilling like mad. Now, unlike then, most production is controlled, since the late 90's, by a handful of companies. We're not witnessing Peak Oil, we're witnessing FIAT inflation and oil market monopolization. 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 03:26 | 4205822 smacker
smacker's picture

"Peak oil = Big Oil Monopoly."

I don't think these two things are directly connected.

The EROEI for oil has been falling for ~10 years and it's quite likely that in some cases it is now negative. Except that some energy costs for extraction are being hidden, eg: the energy costs of cleaning up tar sands and the environment etc.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 12:14 | 4206579 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"the human ponzi scheme we were born into"

The Ponzi scheme requiring constant growth is caused by a monetary system where "money" is created via the issuance of debt, but the additional "money" required to pay the interest on that debt is not. Like Henry Ford said, if the common people understood how the monetary system works there'd be a revolution tomorrow.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:18 | 4204576 smacker
smacker's picture

Yeahbut...although Mike didn't specifically refer to oil in the equation, he did say "it's gonna be a whole lot worse than the 1930s". Oil (energy) is one reason why it will be.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:23 | 4205196 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Dear 'Crashis',

I am astounded that you are here schilling the 'peak oil' thingie (theory) in the guise of commenting on an unrelated article. Kind of expected, though, your misdirection...

Of course, the Russians (as well as other oil magnates) have long-since disproven this bullshit line of 'peak oil'. Oil is taught to children as being made of 'animal and vegetable matter' (you know, the 'dead dinosaurs' crap).

The scar in the Gulf of Mexico is testament to your stupidity (or out-and-out ignorance).

Tell me it ain't so...

Mancondo 252...A, B. AND C... (BP reached the depth of 30,260 feet (below the seafloor, which is about 5,000 feet down itself), before a drastic and uncontrolled pressure rise from the mantle split the seafloor ,and blew the rig the fuck up). Those fuckers tried to hide the leak of the blood of the very Earth, by spraying that Corexit 9500 shit all over in their aerosol spray planes. People are dying, and the oil is still leaking. The Gulf Conveyor is all but stopped, and the weather globally is looking kind of crappy because of it...

Physical evidence tends to prove the 'abiotic theory', you dipshit. Them 'dinosaurs' sure died DEEP!

Try opening your eyes, and researching stuff a little, instead of quoting some tweaking 'reports' about 'oil deliveries'.

Ah, hell, 'The Report From Iron Mountain' was just a 'bullshit story', wasn't it?

'WTC 7 collapsed, due to normal office fires.' I read THAT in some rep[ort somewhere as well, but I watched the collapse, and the report IS BULLSHIT (much like the 'theory' of 'Peak Oil').


Mon, 12/02/2013 - 03:54 | 4205839 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

Wow.  You have a lot of nerve showing up here and calling CrashIsOptimistic a dipshit.  He is anything but.  

Suffice it to say that he will mop the floor with you on this topic if he so chooses.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:42 | 4204479 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Maloney = broken record. Blah, blah, blah, buy gold, blah, blah. Gold is shit. Get a new act.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:21 | 4204525 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

The dumbed down masses need to have Maloney's message reiterated.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:11 | 4204560 Magnum
Magnum's picture

In one of his videos he was holding Russian gold coins with some red spots. Anyone who knows physical gold is familiar with red spots. Maloney made the case that this was proof of fake gold coins all over the world. He is a clown.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:54 | 4204685 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

i mean if u got beef with the dude for some personal reason then ok do and say what u gotta....

but have u viewed the Hidden Secrets of Money series????

have u ordered any metal from him and been ripped off????

Ive placed 2 orders with the company for Pegasus rounds which i normally dont do as my normal purchases r with my local dealer as to avoid any and all counter - party risk... the coins were assayed and r .999....



Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:02 | 4204715 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Have to correct you Magnum, refer to ZH link.

“Sberbank of Russia released an internal memorandum ordering the purchase of the defective coins with the spotted appearance. The Russian Central Bank would buy back the coins at a price of 9,300 rubles, despite prevailing prices for the bullion at well over 10,000 (2010 prices).”

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:01 | 4204893 Magnum
Magnum's picture

A video exists of mike boloney in Russia whispering as if to announce a global breakthrough proving fake gold coins (maybe so he could sell more of his own). His camera pans to display five or six gold coins with red spots! Big freaking deal. Half of my buffalos had red spots before I lost them in a boating accident. I feel sorry for this guy. He offers nothing original.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:59 | 4205123 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

He was one of the many asswipes recommending people to jump into real estate back in the oughts.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:01 | 4204710 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"Maloney = broken record. Blah, blah, blah, buy gold, blah, blah. Gold is shit. Get a new act...."

yeah, keep talkin....

"In the first ten months of 2013 China has imported a net amount of 957,22 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong. With two months to go it is quite obvious that China will surpass the 1.000 tonne estimate by the World Gold Council. Gross imports for this year stand at 1.262,82 tonnes, double the amount in the same period of last year. Whether net imports increased by the same amount remains to be seen, but the increase in 2013 is by all means very significant.
The Chinese don’t seem to worry about the biggest decline in goldprice in years. Year to date the price of gold has dropped about 26 to 28 percent in euro’s, dollars and Chinese yuan. The Chinese government is promoting private ownership of gold and we expect the Chinese central bank to be adding gold to their reserves as well.

Gold imports from Shanghai

China does not publish data on the total imports of gold, but because most of the precious metal is imported through Hong Kong these data is used as a proxy for the Chinese gold demand. Last week Reuters published an article on direct Chinese gold imports through Shanghai, a growing import channel which was overlooked for a long time. According to research by Reuters, China imported about 133 tonnes of gold via this alternative route. The gold imports through Shanghai are expected to increase even further, because of strong demand for physical gold among the Chinese consumers. According to Philip Klapwijk, analyst at consultancy firm Precious Metals Insight, the increasing gold imports through Shanghai are the result of efforts by the government to promote gold ownership among the Chinese population."

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:17 | 4204949 Magnum
Magnum's picture

FYI gold is $700 off highs and $500 lower now than it was 1 year ago.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:37 | 4205032 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, paper gold has collapsed while physical gold is being hoarded at an ever increasing pace around the world.

Did you actually have a point, or are you just showing your ignorance of the situation?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:51 | 4205095 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

the later i can assure u....

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:27 | 4205231 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture


Jane Standley! Is that YOU?

What's that building behind you? Is it the 'Solomon Brothers Building'?


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:58 | 4204504 cabernet
cabernet's picture

I do not think gold does well during the real deflation (stage 4). Deflationary episodes are characterised by a scramble for liquidity. When that happens, people sell what they can, not what they want. You will be able to get a bid for your gold, but not your junk bonds and NASDAQ equities. So I expect the gold price to get hammered during the deflation. Sometime during that process you will want to buy gold, silver, etc. Ideally just before people realise a hyperinflation is about to start. Who knows how low the price goes before it takes off. TheAngryGrapes.Com

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:46 | 4204668 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

I don't think anything does well during a real deflation.  You hold gold during that to avoid counterparty risk, not because you think you'll make a killing. 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:16 | 4204756 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Correct you are. During a severe deflation gold will get hammered. HOWEVER, it won't go to 0. Equities and bonds will. Gold is the ultimate insurance. It survives both hyper inflation and deflation.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:01 | 4205285 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

You want to buy gold during a deflation. However, sometimes you may have no choice but to buy gold prior to the deflation. If there are no safe assets in your country, converting your deposits to hard assets that won't disappear might be a good idea, and gold is one such hard asset. It is also good if you fear confiscation of  titled assets like land, buildings, etc..

A real epic deflation is the one time where US Gold Eagles are of real advantage, since they can never drop below $50 no matter what happens to the price of gold. If gold ever goes below $50 you want to get all the gold eagles you can.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 23:30 | 4205452 daveO
daveO's picture

Gold was last below $50/oz. in 1971. It increased from $20/oz. to 35, overnight, in 1933. It had been at $20/oz since 1900. Inflation (tax by debasement) is all that has been allowed for 100+ years. Hyperinflation and collpase of dollar will occur before $50/oz. Gold or silver in the hand! 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:54 | 4204506 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I like you, mike maloney. I think i will buy some of those pegasus rounds for my next purchase. they look good and are a pretty good price. An aside question, for those of you with more knowledge than me: during this period of deflation, which since mike and other call for it, i have no reason to doubt will happen, will this cause gold and silver prices to drop even further, presenting us with another great buying opportunity, or will this cause the price to sky rocket as people dump stocks and bonds in a quest for safety? I understand that during a deflation, cash is king, but that cash has to go somewhere, especially since its the last thing you want to be holding when they turn up the printing press to ludacris speed. Won't people eventually grow tired of getting burned by these constant bubble/bursts in equities and bonds?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:04 | 4204539 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The answers to all your questions are YES, NO, and MAYBE.  But not necessarily in that order.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:53 | 4204510 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

As long as MLB, NFL, College Bowl, MLB, kardashians and IPHONES work sheeples do not care about this. Look around and you willo see. Corp Amerika is fooling its workers. Waiting to see when this is going to come undone. 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:54 | 4204512 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Makes sense to me, I guess? Stay long till you can't ?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 18:58 | 4204524 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Yeap, looking that way. Preparing . 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:28 | 4204613 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why do you think "til you can't" ever happens.  Why would you think there will be any buyers during a descent?

Why can't markets open -80% on a Monday pre market futures and trigger 3 days of circuit breakers each morning.  Then you open for trading Friday down 80% and what the fuck do you think you'll do?  Buy?

Do you think the government will let it open at all?

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:07 | 4204543 Magnum
Magnum's picture

This is the same guy who was pumping real estate investing in 2007. 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:14 | 4204563 dryam
dryam's picture

Do you have a link?

I agree with the message in the video, but I'd like to know if Maioney is full of shit otherwise.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:20 | 4204584 Magnum
Magnum's picture

He works with a guy named Kurosaki (?).  Huge real estate pumper.  Maloney was the mouthpiece who went around to various cities to sucker people into paying for advice on buying real estate. They pumped it until the bitter end.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:26 | 4204610 dryam
dryam's picture

Thanks, I'll do some searching.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:25 | 4204598 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Robert Kiyosaki. You can probably find Maloney videos whoring for Kiyosaki 

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:40 | 4204650 ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

Nope.  Maloney wrote a book under the "Rich Dad Poor Dad" brand, but he was never about real estate.


I read the physical book in 2008 or so, so his views have been consistent.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:41 | 4204656 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

i would be careful if in fact u r disparaging.....if u r really up on Maloney u would know that he believes in wealth cycles....

there r times to be this asset and there r times to be in that asset...

the crash in the real estate bubble happened in 08'...if u were in and out by 07' then u might have made some dough...

nonetheless he is a REAL MONEY advocate and has endeavored to inform and educate as many as are willing to listen to the fraudulent nature of this debt based monetary system and the creature from Jekyll ilse that created it.....

give props where props r due................

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 20:56 | 4204871 Secede Or Die
Secede Or Die's picture

Dude....what the hell kind of school did you go to? Did you drop out of 3rd grade where they teach grammar, sentence structure and spelling?

Now to my point: The end is near....secede or die.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 21:49 | 4205087 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

mother fucker i multi task which means that very little time is paid to spell checking or making sure every fucking word i submit is gramatically correct for the "grammar hoes" like "URSELF"

fuck off ass "whole"....

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:09 | 4205163 akak
akak's picture


mother fucker i multi task

Which means, "I waste a lot of time trying to do multiple things at the same time --- all of them poorly".

Got it.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:45 | 4205293 fencejumper
fencejumper's picture

Deepak says in this Forbes interview:

"Your conscious brain cannot multitask. If I’m speaking to you and checking my I-Phone at the same time, I’m doing neither. This is why our society is frazzled; this misconception that we can consciously do more than one thing at a time effectively."

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:55 | 4205317 akak
akak's picture

It has been repeatedly demonstrated scientifically that so-called "multi-tasking" is both inefficient and counterproductive, as anyone who has ever lived or worked with a chronic multi-tasker can attest.

I blame the virtual non-stop use of e-gadgets and cellphones for a large amount of our current social fragmentation as well.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 22:40 | 4205276 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

M F'er thinks 'huuked on phoniks' werks, I see.

When you fuck your wife (or girlfreind or boyfreind), and you come too fast (as you obviously MUST do), do you state that 'I multi-task, so I don't have time to enjoy the moment, so fuck you!'? Is THAT your excuse for not taking the time to eludicate, spell, and communicate in complete fucking WORDS (hell, not sentences, WORDS, for God's sake!)?

I met a crack whore like you once. She was never able to complete a sentence. (You could blame me for it, though. I kept her pipe full...)

SAY: You're not 'Skippy', are you?


Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:10 | 4204555 Platinum
Platinum's picture

I'm just going to keep on stacking and prepping. Just like my friends and neighbors.

Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:24 | 4204595 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Japan has done this - printed until their fingers bled - and they still have deflation / stagflation.


Nikkei was 38,000 in 1989 and over 20 years later, it's sits near 16,000.



Sun, 12/01/2013 - 19:35 | 4204638 akak
akak's picture

For the last fucking time already, the popping of an overinflated asset bubble does NOT constitute deflation!

Get your terminology (and thinking) straight, or shut the fuck up.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!