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Even Goldman Can't Explain Away The Market Exuberance

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From the start of 2012, the S&P 500 up over 40% with the bulk of that surge coming since QE3 (and 4EVA) was unleashed. Until that point, Goldman's global risk and macro models had stayed relatively well synced with stock market 'reality' but once that torrent of liquidity was released, all bets were off. As the following chart shows, more than half the equity market performance is due to factors unrelated to risk, macro fundamentals, or country-specific factors. So, BFTATH of course?

 

 

Chart: Goldman Sachs

 


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Mon, 12/02/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Those lines look pretty well programmed to me....

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

about those "diminishing returns" or QE.......

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

It's a good sign when it sells off in the last 10 minutes, right?  Means storing up energy like a spring, for a big jump up tomorrow?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:07 | Link to Comment doggis
doggis's picture

it is EASY to explain.

THE BANKING CARTEL WAS ENTICING EL STUPIDO RETAIL PUBLICO BACK INTO THE MARKET.

THEY WOULD GO AS HIGH AS THEY NEEDED IN ORDER TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL.

GOAL HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED! 

 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I thought the retail shmo was dead?

 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

When the numbers come back and reality sets in, it will be dead. They are already spinning it by saying the "other" days took a large chunk of sales from Black Friday. 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

That looks pretty damn bullish if you ask me!  

Today was a great day for buying the dip seeing as the probability of closing the year below 1800 is basically zero.  Just watch, tomorrow we will entirely erase any losses from today and then some. 

 

The FED has got our back; just close your eyes and buy them, you can't lose!

 

Those trying to frontrun some sort of taper by getting short here are going to get destroyed when the FED makes their statement about increasing QE this month and we shoot straight up past 1900.   

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I love the FED - those altrustic millionaires spend all their time looking out for us, it almost doesn't seem right.  They've been so good to the people...

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And the I.R.A./401K/Pension crowd along for the ride of course.

They will be strapped in their seats when the roller-coaster goes down that harrowing drop, as the Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, and other players (ride operators) laugh from the platform.

What a scam; it's a grifters dream, trillions of suckers money for the stealing.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Double POMO tomorrow insures a new record close for the dow and sp.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

My Estate Law lawyer, who knows fuck all about invesment, had a 19.5% Gain in her Retirement plan, thanks to her Planners at RBC and TD.

She held neither PM nor BTC. 

/ Somebody remind me again how we "smart fuckers" at ZH are front-running anything that's making us richer or happier? /sarc [steam coming out of ears]

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

Don't be a FOMO.  Nod and say that's great! Because do you really think she's going to see that 19.5% when the FED runs out of tricks?

Make your money, run Forrest run, and turn your wealth into hard assets.  Wait and watch the crash. 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup; the "wealth effect" at work because it looks good on paper but that's all it is.

Wonder if those folks remember losing 50% or more in 2009?

Even mice learn not to go back to the door that shocked them.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

It's not a gain until you sell.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

You can't explain away bullshit.  You just nod your head and cash your check. 

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Unbelievable.

Might as well call all of their clients what they truly are "suckers".

P.T. Barnum would have been proud!

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment billsbest
billsbest's picture

Sure, they can explain it. You don't think Goldman's gonna tell the serfs do you?

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

With some gray hairs in my head I still wistfully remember when a thing called fundamentals still mattered?

I'm going to bet that if Goldman sauntered Lloyd out to the mic in front of today’s "gambler", he could probably get away with calling them all suckers to their face on a live broadcast of MSNBC as long as the rigged slots continue to shit "matching 3s” in the imaginary casino called investing.

That's when you know you've sunk to the lowest denominator and the majority out there that still call it trading are no longer capable of rational thought.

Mon, 12/02/2013 - 19:08 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

the s&p goes up and bond yields go up. what is wrong with this picture?

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