Goldman Slashes Q4 2013 GDP Growth To 1.3%

Tyler Durden's picture

Of the 92 firms that offer their guesses at the GDP data, Goldman is now 6th lowest as today's construction spending disappointment pressured their estimate for Q4 2013 GDP to a mere 1.3%. Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna still tops the list at 3.5% - so quite a dispersion.



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Headbanger's picture

Goldman Q4 GDP Translation:


kliguy38's picture

QUICK.......Taper Ben!!! while there's still ten people out there that watch CNBS and believe the "economy" is improving ........then Honeymunch can move in with the real helicopters.

ZH Snob's picture

I guess 1.3% looks better than the -2% it should be advertised as.  one thing for sure, we know they haven't altered it out of any kind of honesty.  that's an unknown in GS circles.

Wolferl's picture

Goldman: Give us moar QE.

Dr. Engali's picture

It's been five years now. I'm still hoping for that change.

depression's picture

Taper OFF

how's that for change ?

I am Jobe's picture

More Slurpees and TV's


Al Huxley's picture

Is GDP still relevant?  Perhaps in the name of economic stability we should stop forecasting and reporting on it.  Along those thoughts, rather than having all the volatility that's embedded in the market, could the government not mandate a daily S&P increase of say .8%, or at the very least, an 'acceptable daily range' of say .1% - 1.1%?  I think that would make forecasting and planning a lot easier.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Let's note the June redefinition that added 0.6% via movie libraries and books makes this number 0.7%.

Merry Christmas.

NoDebt's picture

I can imagine the day that "investment professionals" will complain their job has become too hard because it will require something other than just reading and interpreting Fed minutes.

"Wadda ya mean we gotta look at the company's financials!?!?!  Are you crazy?  That stuff is COMPLICATED!"

SDShack's picture

Well the change in calculated GDP using R&D money was necessary for business & govt. liars to be able to not only fudge the numbers, but actually get credit for fudging the numbers. A Two-Fer! Winning!

buzzsaw99's picture

for the best squid pro quo buy chinee stock

Kaiser Sousa's picture

"Iceland’s government has announced that it will be writing off up to 24,000 euros ($32,600) of every household’s mortgage, fulfilling its election promise, despite overwhelming criticism from international financial institutions. The measure was introduced by the country’s prime minister, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, the leader of the Progressive Party which won the late-April elections on a promise of household debt relief. According to the government’s website the household debt will be reduced by 13 percent on average. 

Citizens of Iceland have been suffering from debt since the 2008 financial crisis, which led to high borrowing costs after the collapse of the krona against other currencies.  “Currently, household debt is equivalent to 108 percent of GDP, which is high by international comparison,” highlighted a government statement, according to AFP. "The action will boost household disposable income and encourage savings.” The government said that the debt relief will begin by mid-2014 and according to estimates the measure is set to cost $1.2 billion in total. It will be spread out over four years. 

The financing plan for the program has not yet been laid out. However, Gunnlaugsson has promised that public finances will not be put at risk. It was initially proposed that the foreign creditors of Icelandic banks would pay for the measure. International organizations have confronted the idea with criticism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have advised against it, citing economic concerns. Iceland has “little fiscal space for additional household debt relief” according to the IMF, while the OECD stated that Iceland should limit its mortgage relief to low-income households."

Tsar Pointless's picture

I like it. This is what we here in the USofA should have done back in 2008. THAT would have been real change.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  Just more confirmation that you will lose whatever "investments" you have in the system.  When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.  That is all.

BandGap's picture

Very good point. Convert all paper/electronic assets to those with weight, area, mass, etc.

Step two would be maintaining the possession of said goods.

Quinvarius's picture

No.  The plan is to buy your mortgage off the banks using printed money and tax money so they have less risk.  That way you actually pay the mortgage twice.  Once because you keep paying your monthly mortgage bill.  The second time in extra taxes, and in loss of purchasing power due to devalued currency, so that you mortgage can be bought off the banks . 

MickV's picture

Happy Holidaze Tsar. Good to see you here. I miss "Economic Edge". Notice how everyone else is starting to talk about "the most important chart" (diminishing return on debt)?

101 years and counting's picture

this is great news.  in new normal, growth is bad.

Yen Cross's picture

   SSDD> When the GDP comes in at the previously lowered to 1.6% number, all will rejoice and BTFATH as usual...

Rainman's picture

Intellectual property valuations will be soaring to infinity .... but I'll be conservative ... 5% for a big beat !

knukles's picture

And wait till you see the 2014 forecast, boosted significantly by Oblahma's next 1,754 hours of meandering unintelligible speeches.

Christ, it's getting like the Dear Leader Speech-a-Thons from the fascist camps during the days of yore....
Er, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaait....

depression's picture

Long Teleprompter Futures

Ignatius's picture

Growth?  I guess that explains the constant layoffs I keep reading about.  /sarc

NOTaREALmerican's picture

GDP is so old-school. 

maskone909's picture


G oldman D uped the P ublic

Bosch's picture


I'll have one of whatever that guy is having. 

knukles's picture

I think he's over in the corner drooling all over himself, rubbing one out

youngman's picture

Its not what the number is...its when you know what the number a few seconds before...then you can make some serious bitcoin

TrustWho's picture

Who cares....Buy the F*&^%$# Dip!!!!!!! says Daddy Bernanke and Mommy Yellen. 

Bastiat's picture

With an education system like this, the US will be coming back!!

A bit one-sided but many valid and horrific facts:

Quinvarius's picture

On one hand the stock market is breaking all records on bad GDP and money printing.  On the other hand...there is no counter to the first hand.  No banking crisis, no market collapse.  GDP is not worthy of your study.

starman's picture

lets be honest, they can not taper at least for another 10 years, when by that time will be glowing human maggots from radiation.

robertocarlos's picture

There's no point in borrowing or lending when there is no possibility of earning, at least on average, a return on investment. Death spiral indeed.

Hal n back's picture

GDP going to be great--inventory growth wil see to that, and then we have to start constructing buildings to house the inventory--this is teh way to a recovery.


Even better, if yo9u can run your factory at 100% capacity even if building inventories, you will have a favorable variance to standard costs (assuming we have any manufacturing left in this country) so you get to overstate profits for overabsorbed overhead. Win win for everybody. Untill of course you have to do somehting about the bloated inventory, like shut down production for a month.


folks, they are trying every trick in the books to keep this going. when it stops though you had better have you helmet and full body protection on cause it ain't gonna be pretty.