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GM Channel Stuffing Surges To Second Highest Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Confused why the various US manufacturing indices have been on a tear in the past few months? Perhaps the fact that GM dealer lots are so full of cars they just couldn't wait for even more deliveries has something to do with it. Which is also why in addition to reporting sales numbers for November that were largely in line with expectations, amounting to 212,060 (even if total Chevy Volts sold YTD of 20.7K were -0.6% less than in the same period in 2012), or 13.7% more than last year (estimated called for 13.% increase), of which a whopping 51,705 was in the form of "channel stuffed" units to be parked on dealer lots.

In fact, as the chart below shows, in the past three months, GM channel stuffing has exploded and soared by 150K units (the most ever for a 3 month period) from 628.6K to 779.5K. This represents the second highest amount of channel stuffing and is lower only compared to the 788.2K units "stuffed" exactly one year ago.

And while the topic of channel stuffing is not new here, as we have been covering it closely for the past three years, it is of note that even "serious" media such as Bloomberg pointed out yesterday that across the entire US car industry, and not just GM, channel stuffing is now the highest it has been since 2005. Surely all this pent up demand is there for a reason: after all, as in every centrally-planned economy, if you build it they will surely come...

Source

 

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Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:19 | 4210286 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Like A Rock

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:22 | 4210308 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

So...

 

Detriot is bankrupt, detriot pensions are getting a haircut and... autos are still grossly oversupplied?

 

Gee that bailout back in 2008 wasn't the epitome of kicking the can was it?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:23 | 4210316 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

And why should this matter now, if it didnt matter a year ago?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:30 | 4210341 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Pssssssst ...

AnyOne Wanna Buy A Shitty New Truck... Cheap ???

AnyOne Gata Credit ???

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:55 | 4210464 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Gee, November gets mega stuffed every year. Too much turkey?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:25 | 4210591 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Calling Max Fischer..... mr. civis mundi idioso.

 

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 14:23 | 4210816 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Autos are selling very well to both fleet & retail customers, actually.

The new model is rental rather than ownership payments, stretched out over longer & longer periods of time, with a lot of profitability & revenue coming from the bankster F&I showroom floor office.

"Just tell me the monthly payment!" is the new mantra, depreciation, residual value, running & operating/repair/maintenance costs be damned.

Salesman: "Can I interest you in this shiny white Hyundai Santa Fe for $41,000...errr...I mean $440 per month, for 120 months, Mr./Mrs. Stanley Johnson? Don't worry about your negative 780 FICO score. We'll get to that later."

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:16 | 4210467 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Does this mean manufacturer's $15k instant rebate and zero-interest 84-month loan, no documentation required?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:58 | 4210474 MonsterBox
MonsterBox's picture

Pass ObamaCar requiring every household to own a newer American car, whether you want it or not.  Poor, can't afford it?  Apply for the Fed-backed assistance.  This'll Float the US economy, save the children from older cars (like cash-4-clunkers) and let Algore push more Volts.  /sarc

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:47 | 4210427 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Nothing matters until it does, the Housing Bubble did'nt matter for years. Afterwords Sir Allen declared "Nobody Saw It Coming"... Mozillo saw it coming and sold 400 Million in shares at the tip of the top.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:35 | 4210374 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Uh, more like a stone, as in dropping once the next down leg comes.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:15 | 4210553 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F GM-Oba-MA-UAW!  Their vehicles are total shit.  Democrat union goons. 

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:23 | 4210305 moneybots
moneybots's picture

When is the channel going to stuff GM back?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:35 | 4210372 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Ya can't fight City Hall.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:58 | 4210483 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

You can if you have enough people!

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:36 | 4210376 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

The worst case end game will be when they have to drive the new cars around the block a few times and sell them as used ones so they have more latitude on the price. remember this post when it happens. That was the result of a german exec from chrysler doing the same thing.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:33 | 4210362 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

The illusion that there is some aggregate demand for credit as well reported here seems firmly dependent on student loans and cars. THat is on one hand.

 

I used to follow the auto industry very closely and this illusion is a companion one which allows the companies to book sales profits based on what flies out the factory door, not the showroom floor. When Daimler was bleeding chrysler dry one of their german executives parachuted into chrysler, joltin Joe Eberhardt vp of global sales for chrysler was famous for this. He had mandated overproduction such that they literally had nowhere to park the unsold vehicles. Dealers were in open revolt for being strong armed into taking stock they didn't need. He then stepped down and was made manager of several mercedes dealerships.

http://www.autoblog.com/2006/12/05/was-it-something-i-said-chryslers-joe...

 

As we've read here many times before, don't expect anyone to report this in the mainstream - because when your job relies on you not knowing or saying something, you don't know it and you don't say it.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:37 | 4210384 TheFreeLance
TheFreeLance's picture

And the US auto press is full of hacks who know that glossy display ads keep a roof over their heads. Speaking truth to their readers is not exactly a priority.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:02 | 4210386 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I can't wait for the day when the majority of Amurikans realize the biggest channel being stuffed is their ass by the Federal government.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 15:50 | 4211189 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I disagree with the premise that the american people don't know this or, at the very least, should have some reasonable idea it's happening.  Rather, the real issue is that americans accept the "back door" channel stuffing in exchange for bread and circuses.  The outrage isn't that the government is fucking us, it's that we've made a terrible bargain once the fucking continues in earnest yet the bread and circuses wane.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 02:40 | 4212924 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I respect your opinion but I still believe many don't know (care) since they're on the government dole.  It may not be a true majority but it's certainly a large percentage minority.  JMO

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:52 | 4210448 666
666's picture

If this happens every November, maybe Government Motors management thinks people will stuff their turkeys with Chevy Volts. Wait... isn't a Chevy Volt a turkey? I'm confused.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 12:58 | 4210481 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Even more impressive when you take in the lower number of dealerships out there....

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:04 | 4210504 starman
starman's picture

GM domestic auto sales 2007 - 4.3 million units

2013 - 2.2 million

Interesting.......

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:14 | 4210544 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Well since they can't make it up in volume, they'll just make it up in higher prices.

Ahahahaha, ok sorry I couldn't keep a straight face after saying that.

According to all the authoritarians....errrr authorities....we're in recovery.

FORWARD slaves!

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:12 | 4210543 Iceobar
Iceobar's picture

Obamacar =  New law that each household must buy a GM product every 3 years

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:16 | 4210552 earnulf
earnulf's picture

I noticed that vacant parking lots near dealerships seem to fill up will cars that never, seem, to move.   Despite the fact that the businesses they are parked in close for the night, the cars, still, stay.     I just thought the cars had finally gained sentience and were waiting for orders to back up SKynet.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:23 | 4210580 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Obama cash for clunkers #2 on it's way.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:27 | 4210600 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The tri-fecta of Obamafone, Obamaplasma, and Obamavolt, would ensure his re-election in 2016.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:37 | 4210634 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

interesting in that MacNeil, the VP of GM said that the 212k units sold were sold by dealerships. which are privately owned and not part of teh GM consolidation thus how can GM calim the 19%. So many inconsistencies.

 

the difference this year vs last is the economy is slowing, jobs not as good (vs macneils saying the economy is creating jobs) Obamacare ripping disposable income from normal consumer spending and it looks like this holiday season retail sales will be a stinker.

 

but, one can buy a car for nothing down and 6 years of zero interest.

 

 

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:40 | 4210645 Michigander
Michigander's picture

They're shipping to Venezuela.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 13:42 | 4210656 Laughing Stock
Laughing Stock's picture

I don't know about GM channel stuffing

But I sure would like to "stuff" Melisa Lee with my "stuff"

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 14:19 | 4210802 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

They can be used to build artificial reefs and thus help our depleted fishing stocks.... Is that a Grouper in that Cadillac?....

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 14:20 | 4210807 Frostfan1
Frostfan1's picture

I know everyone here is waiting for the apocalypse and collapse of the USA but maybe one commentor (since the writer obviously has no clue), just one would know something about accounting.  If the article states that the record inventory was last november and they're back at the same level now, then what they are reporting as sales is actual sales.   Opening inventory plus purchases less ending inv = sales.  Anyone anyone Bueller Bueller???????   I'd see the writer's call of BS if inventory had skyrocketed but all he's saying is it's back to last year's level.

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 14:36 | 4210871 johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

I went to a Chevy dealer the other day and I checked on the new Stingray, I was told they are sold out and have orders stacked up until April, so if you were to order a new one the best would be to get it by May... not sure if this model is a representative of the whole GM portfolio but it seems they can't keep up with the demand on that car yet

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 17:12 | 4211465 Trample the Wea...
Trample the Weak. Hurdle the Dead.'s picture

C'mon Guy!---ya Fucked up---you believed him.

 

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 18:57 | 4211836 johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

look on autoblog or any car site, they are pretty much sold out. Why would he not even try to sell me a car and make his comission if he could?

Tue, 12/03/2013 - 18:58 | 4210873 johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 08:38 | 4213227 esum
esum's picture

ya want numbers ..... i'll give you numbers....if it keeps you happy and docile and maleable... soon you will be wearing a number... in a FEMA camp

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