ADP Soars To 215K Smashing Expectations, Prior Months Revised Higher Reviving Tapering Fears
Judging by massive revision in the October print, from 130K to 184K, or nearly a 50% error, one would think that instead of actually tabulating specific private jobs as it by definition does, using the data entering the ADP private payrolls system, the ADP makes its estimate of jobs based on high inaccurate surveys just like the BLS. Either that, or it was desperate to catch up on the upside to the BLS' own propaganda numbers, which are just as "realistic." That said, the November ADP print soared from 130K to an upward revised 184K in October blowing through expectations of 170K and printing at a whopping 215K. And so the Taper dance is back on as everyone will now expected Friday's NFP to come in scorching hot, and force the Fed to cut its monthly flow by a whopping $10 billion to $75 billion.
The punchline from the report:
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market remained surprisingly resilient to the government shutdown and brinkmanship over the treasury debt limit. Employers across all industries and company sizes looked through the political battle in Washington. If anything, job growth appears to be picking up.”
But... but... all the fearmongering.
This is what the current and revised data looked like:
The main driver for today's major revision and beat: the ADP's desire to mimic the NFP numbers. Which makes one wonder: what's the point of having an ADP number if it has an error range of +/- 50%?
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands):
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
A more detailed breakdown:
Of course, since ADP is a joke, the greatest utility from this irrelevant service is that it is now social-media friendly and provides a ready to go infographic:
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