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ADP Soars To 215K Smashing Expectations, Prior Months Revised Higher Reviving Tapering Fears

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Judging by massive revision in the October print, from 130K to 184K, or nearly a 50% error, one would think that instead of actually tabulating specific private jobs as it by definition does, using the data entering the ADP private payrolls system, the ADP makes its estimate of jobs based on high inaccurate surveys just like the BLS. Either that, or it was desperate to catch up on the upside to the BLS' own propaganda numbers, which are just as "realistic." That said, the November ADP print soared from 130K to an upward revised 184K in October blowing through expectations of 170K and printing at a whopping 215K. And so the Taper dance is back on as everyone will now expected Friday's NFP to come in scorching hot, and force the Fed to cut its monthly flow by a whopping $10 billion to $75 billion.

The punchline from the report:

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The job market remained surprisingly resilient to the government shutdown and brinkmanship over the treasury debt limit. Employers across all industries and company sizes looked through the political battle in Washington. If anything, job growth appears to be picking up.”

But... but... all the fearmongering.

This is what the current and revised data looked like:

 

The main driver for today's major revision and beat: the ADP's desire to mimic the NFP numbers. Which makes one wonder: what's the point of having an ADP number if it has an error range of +/- 50%?

 

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands):

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

A more detailed breakdown:

 

Of course, since ADP is a joke, the Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 215,000 Jobs Added in Novembergreatest utility from this irrelevant service is that it is now social-media friendly and provides a ready to go infographic:

 

 


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Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

So silver and goldbugs should keep their helmets on? ?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Actually both metals are currently rallying. Strange how things react when under constant manipulation.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I swear Bloomturd said gold was down this morning. Good to see Bloomberg is getting as bad as CNBC. May their viewership follow CNBC's path.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

One good railroad deserves another.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We're going to keep shoving this data down your throat until you believe we're in a recovery (and start borrowing and spending again), dammit!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 12:59 | Link to Comment zaphod
zaphod's picture

The data is real.

It is a reflection of what happens when you print $85B/month and run government deficits around $1T/year.

The "real" data is what happens when this artificial support finally ends, either by stoping the crazy (not going to happen) or by the market forcing the government to stop (dollar loses reserve status). Hint: the data then will not be pretty.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

CNBC should run this. It's a good representation of our economy

http://vimeo.com/macncheese/supermarket

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

After a lot of independent reading (numerous books about economics, finance, trading, investment, etc.  on top of multiple graduate degrees & extensive fins svcs industry experience) & study since 2008 .... have concluded that B'berg is a borderline fr**d.  It is a polluted newsstream.  Any 'successful' investor or analyst who relies on it for 'news' is either deluded or idiotic. 

Some graduate students ought to write some PhD theses on how polluted these 'news' sources are ... little objectivity .... largely parroting source public relations/information releases.  Even the once trustworthy financial news industry has deteriorated severely (e.g., WSJ, FT & Economist are 'branded' hollowed out shells compared to what they were as recently as 20 years ago).

This is not ideology or philosophy masked as criticism; this remark is directed to trying to obtain  basic information and understanding of what is going on in the world to function adequately

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

In their defence, it is only self preservation.

Lets see... Tell the truth, market flames out and crashes, wholesale financial destruction, no advertizing revenues, job loss...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:37 | Link to Comment 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Economic good news and thus tapering will expose the Government's insolvency.  They are trapped.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

Release the Taper! I'm ready bitchez

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Tyler, you misspelled "hopes" in the title.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Im watching the charts, as usual, like a child peeking at a horror movie. So far so.. Not bad..

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> Strange how things react when under constant manipulation.

There are large piles of bullshit, small piles of bullshit, steaming piles of bullshit, smoldering piles of bullshit ...

... we live in a world of shit.

 

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Silver is up this morning. Silver is also an industrial metal, not just an inflation hedge.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

I don't remember any announcements from the Fed promising to let us little people know when they taper.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I still don't think the Fed will taper. Yellen is a QE4EVA type. I guess if Bernanke started the taper before she got into the office, she would have to continue it until the government produced economic numbers start to reflect reality.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Fed has a built in public excuse not to taper. The US debt ceiling and budget matters have still not been 'resolved'.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

If there is no debt to buy, what does the Fed buy if they continue QE? 100% MBS's? Maybe they start to buy the sub prime car loans a bit early (before the crisis breaks out).

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"If there is no debt to buy, what does the Fed buy if they continue QE?"

Stocks? REITS? Junk bonds (the original junk bonds, not the junk US Treasury bonds they buy today). Vintage cars? Comic books?

The list is endless once you put aside your silly ideas that the Fed is trying to 'fix' things' :)

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:22 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Good answer.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Student loans.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:22 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Even better answer.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

If I'm not mistaken, the Fed can only buy assets that are guaranteed by the government. Of course, they have little tricks like Maiden Lane. 

 

http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/wmblr/vol1/iss1/5/

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

bitcoins

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Oh just look at the "no taper market goes up forever" cheerleaders here!

Where are you mooks from anyway?  CNBS?  GS?  JPM?  OBAMA!!??

And don't even look at what the 10 Year Treasury is doing now!

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

 

 

I told you not to look!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Stop banging your head against things and understand our real message: QE will go on forever, the stock market bubble will go on until it pops. None of us said the market goes up forever.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

NOTAPER4EVA

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

Waiting for the 10 year crosses 4%. That's when the fireworks start. 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Yellen isn't going to taper. If the stock market goes down, she will initiate QE5 and start buying stocks directly. Until the printing comes to a halt, It's all Bullshit!!!!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The media and the government continue to spit in our faces and tell us it's raining.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Smells more like piss, but perhaps you were trying to be polite.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment STP
STP's picture

Another name for it is the "Trickle Down Economy"....

<Sarc>

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Oh good maybe that spot beside the Red Box in front of the 711 has opened up.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment OwnSilverPlayMusic
OwnSilverPlayMusic's picture

What explains oil moving towards $100...in December...after a deal to put Iran's oil back on the market?  Anyone have any insights?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

What is it in the definition of chaos that you do not understand?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

a healthier economy means more demand for oil so more bids driving up the price worldwide,.........it should be a beautiful spring, green shoots, unicorns, rainbows,  oh my it's cold outside though....brrrr...better button up to be safe eh?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

 

 

The American middle-class has not yet been squeezed dry...

Sock-of-the-Month Clubs Rise Online, Bringing Subscriptions to Feet

 

 

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Sock of the month? I have not seen something this stupid in a long time.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

I once had a girlfriend who was in the sock-in-the-mouth club, what a moaner

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Handicapping central banker/politician actions is fools gold and I understand this.  But, one possible scenario:

- cutesie little taper of say $10B/month

- jawbone the strength of economy and ability to exit QE when the time is right

- lower flow and debt ceiling resurfacing sends the S&P down 40%

- use this "crash" and begging by wall street whores to raise QE to over $100B/month

- Obama/Yellen pat each other on the back at moving even further towards a dependency society

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

They do not need to be cutsie anymore.  The FED can just raise it to $150 billion /month and who is going to say anything other than ZH and usual suspects.  Print on, baby, print on.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

cutsie little taper of 10 Bil. yanks gold down 100, any takers?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Be careful what you wish for, bitch.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:08 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Indeed, I often wonder at  comments such as ; Bring it on, End the fed, Crash this Bitch.

Do people really not see the end result of the failure of our system, or loss of reserve status?

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This happens every holiday year.  Wall St whore shout to the rooftops, "It's a beat, we are recovering!!!111" when they fail to realize the reason the Dec jobs report is always inflated is because of (temp) retail jobs. 

Then when February comes around, 80% of these folks are laid off.

I agree 100% with ghostzapper.  It was never *if* they taper - they will eventually - that is the question. 

The question is: if they EVER stop QE all together.  And they won't.  For maybe a decade or more.  And once the market sells off once they do taper, it gives them a reason to PRINT MOAR!!!!!!111111CTRL-PPPPPP

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

I believe that Bernanke/Yellen and the politicians are indeed so academically/keynesian oriented that they really can't or won't open up their minds to other options and possibilities.  I also believe they are not nearly as intelligent as they claim to be.  However, things have gotten so absurd and ridiculous that I feel that they are not THAT dumb that they can't see this.  At this point it looks like we are well on our way to an intentional destruction of the existing system.  It's mathematically impossible to pay off all of the sovereign and financial debt globally if interest rates were ever allowed to move in "free market" fashion.  So it's an intentional race to the bottom to see if they can pay off fixed debts with worthless fiat or just crash the whole damn thing.  

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I am more pessimistic than you. I believe Obama, Yellen and Bernanke are sociopaths who COMPLETELY UNDERSTAND what they are doing and just don't give a fuck. Obama was "purchased" by Wall St.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Jimmy Carter wa...
Jimmy Carter was right's picture

I miss Bush too...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE

Obama was "purchased" by Wall St.

Oh the irony of that statement!

The best part is, back in the 1700s, "elites" used to buy black slaves.  Now, they buy politicans to do their dirty work, and the best part is, it doesn't matter what color these "new slaves" are.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

I refuse to use the word taper in any other context than a turd, so I will say reduce QE. I'll eat my own tapered turd if QE is ever reduced!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

And I will join you at the dinner table.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

sell-in Yellen.   

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

economic news is better than real economic life, keep me happy things are reallly greaaat, you look marvolus darling

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

going by yoy it is worse then last year, the trend is set

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

The new numbers do not matter, nothing matters.

They. Cannot. Taper.

The fundimentals have been toasted. Real production of value has crashed. The only thing holding up our delusional fantasy of a world economy is the hot liquidity provided by the Feds QE program.

Think of a patient in cardiac arrest being kept alive by a constant direct infusion of adrenalin. Stop the infusion, heart stops, instant death.

They are backed into a corner with no other option.

They will not stop. To do so is suicide.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Exactly. Until fundamentals meet the government's bullshit numbers, QE must go on. My guess is a collapse before that happens.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

The collective fantasy will continue until overwellming imperical evidence forces reality onto a majority.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:54 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

No one on the planet will drink the US kool aid anymore.  Fuck you to all of the people who are intentionally misleeding this country!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment rustymason
rustymason's picture

I guess it can just go on like this  f o r e v e r   . . .  

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

And how many people were removed from the employment rolls as having "stopped looking", when in fact their benefits stopped? The BLS is more full of shit than the CBO. 

 

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

We have too much Financial assets (or the debt of someone else ) to GDP (goods and services, consumable commodities, Gold). The ratio can be restored with massive deflation and bankruptcies all around or with stagflation. Either way financial assets are over abundant in the US, buy the present goods.

This reports suggest stagflation rather than debt collapse....

 

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:12 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

70's style stagflation difficult with 85 billion at least a month, they were not doing that in the 1970's

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

This report suggests to me that no number or metric has any meaning. Historical numbers are in the past and have no meaning to future numbers as that is the very purpose of our "leading manipulators". When rules are clearly defined and obvious to all, there are very few opportunities for those who seek to profit from ignorance and greed. Those leading the charge towards "investing" do so because they are inducing people to place bets on the unknown, otherwise it would not be a bet at all. Therefore, the more unknowns, the more the bets and more chances at being fleeced. Conservative investing is based on placing bets with fewer unknowns and more sense of controllable outcomes. Those opportunities exist less and less, with the single primary safe bet being government cronyism. Corruption IS the only safe bet now.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Ass hat magic

Service providing= pt xmas

Transportation= shipping of cheap stuff to walmarts

Goods producing= all the UTUBE videos of sheeple buying junk stuff.

Professional & business= all the mental midgets hired for Healthcare.gov

ADP = american douche puffery

 

nuff said

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Hubbs
Hubbs's picture
As I have said before, manipulation of the data (jobs report) upward was formerly for political purposes--"the economy is improving, don't despair, re-elect me".   But now, it seems that the data is being manipulated to get more bang for the buck effect from a monetary standpoint, soley because the FED realizes it can't keep printing, and therefore needs to install fear that it might taper, even though as Schiff and others propound, the FED really can't taper .

 

 

We have been through this several months ago, but the BS numbers make it sound as if the FED is really desperate now.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

I've been reading ZH for a few years, posting for 2 maybe.  I read Adam Taggart's article yesterday on here.  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-03/wisdom-looking-idiot-today

It made me feel better, but I'm wondering, maybe, we....really...aren't....all....that bad off???

Maybe there is a recovery.   Maybe there is no reason to be negative and bearish.  Maybe gold is a bad play.

Then I clicked my heels together and was back.

"And you....President Reagan, I missed you most of all!"

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

Where the secton for seasonable retail workers, and part time retail jobs?

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

I'm not sure how anyone really trades the ADP number. As the article says, if your number is +/- 50% then let's just throw in the towel and admit it's going to be somehow self-serving for TPTB.
In theory ADP could be a primary data source with their payroll numbers, but they are actually utilizing BLS surveys? WTF.

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