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"Good News" Spikes USD & Bond Yields (But Bullion Bid?)
Treasury yields are surging on the ADP's Good news this morning with 10Y topping 2.84% - its highest yield in almost 3 months. The USD is surging, stocks are fading; but despite an initial dip... gold is rallying.
Chart: Bloomberg
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Buy gold
Sell DJIA
Been saying it all week. Now is the time to make that trade everyone has been talking about for 5 fucking years.
Optimist.
This is like that Seinfeld episode where George starts doing the opposite of whatever he thinks he should do.... and becomes wildly successful.
I'm so there.
Another one of those days in Goldland..
https://www.quantsig.net/live.html
About time gold removed its tail from its balls and made a shot for the moon..
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
I've been waiting a very long time to call this top.
It's so obvious everyone is blind to it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-21/dow-closes-above-16000-first-time-retirement#comment-4178931
maybe. One thing is for sure, sovereign debt on the planet earth must increase. just ask yourself, what's the easiest way to motivate capital back into sovereign debt?
Two things I have zero doubt about. The 10yr will be over 3% next year and teh S&P will be over 2k.
If for no other reason than the fact that no one on here believes it's possible.
Bitcoin testing all time highs on all exchanges as well.
Well I am not sure how they will pitch it, but I can safely assume that I will be on the business end and in need of some Astroglide.
cough *401k* cough
pods
This is what The Fed has wrought, and it will only get worse. I dare them to taper. Then, they will really see what they have done.
When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law...
the only thing anyone needs to know about this "market".
Taper? Who the fuck would buy USTs then?
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
Foreign holdings have increased an impressive... $180bn over the past year, ie, 15-20% of the deficit.
"$180bn over the past year" - So ~18% of QE (what the Fed is directly monetizing). LOL!
looks like some kind of test/gold
PM short squeeze? Chinese?? very bizarre price action after the last few days, and with that ADP you would have thought they would have smashed it out of the ball park...
The fuckers tried
Strange and "unexpected" things happen in a manipulated market...
hedge accordingly.
And there goes 1,225....to the upside. We shall see. Might be time to take the helmets off.
This is Armstrong theory ... so far he is spot on
...until he isn't, then he'll retune his magical fork, and be right back on again.
Guess what, it's a fix.
I would be selling my stocks for gold and silver right now.....but I.... like most of us..did that years ago....
>> did that years ago....
Tis odd who you find sharing your fox hole.
Headfakes. Friday payroll number will be 65,000. Whiplash.
Hi hedgers, or should I say non-hedgers. I haven't been to this site for a year. How are your gold positions suckers? Oh you're just going in for more? hahaha suckers.
The last time I took delivery of physical gold, it was under $300 an ounce. Wake me when we get back under under $1,000. I might take delivery again. Let me guess, you also accept spent chewing gum as collateral.
Not very good at understanding counterparty risk are you, print all the paper promises you want, the calories avialable for consumption (require in order to actually create anything of real value and survive) are what they are. By the way, silver is an industrial metal as well as a safe store of value.
Still sore you missed the rally (over the last 30 years) I see.
Suckers indeed.
LMFAO!
Silver at $5 - $6 was a nice pickup also. Where do these dumbass trolls come from? DUH!
Hey, I hope these trolls are correct. I'd love to see those prices again. It's time to switch from focusing on a "return on capital" to a "return of capital" and wealth preservation. In a debt-is-money system, debt must increase, period. The cost of servicing debt is going up, not down, unless there is going to be a massive debt jubilee, this trend will continue. Unfortunately, their are people on the other side of that debt and WWIII is more likely than a jubilee. The easiest way to get people to rush back into sorvereign debt is to crash the "market". Same as it ever was...
Warning!! Warning!!! Please do not feed the trolls.....not even the lesser trolls like this one!
It would be pareto efficient here at ZH (at least one person is better off, while no on person is made wrose off) if you were to just leave again for another year given the immature and uninformed post you just laid down.
Oh BTW how did bankrupting JP Morgan by buying silver go?
The stock market goes down in flames if the 10y tops 3%.
bet on taper only AFTER taper
I say another head fake. If you notice gold is "in your face" now as to how it is manipulated. Just like during the no taper deal and when it was hit during the gov shut down.
I call this period the "in your face" period of manipulation, where the do the complete opposite to screw with gold investors.
But notice folks, the in your face gains are always paltry, while the in your face take downs are huge. I will wait for some more december waterfalls.
gold "rallying"? you've got to be kidding. bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
That was my initial reaction as well.......I went to coinflation for the first time in a week expecting to see a 20$ upside and just lol'd.
I think it's what they call grasping at straws.
dup
This BS ADP number is all about selling $4.5 billion IPO's this week. They will sell treasuries, buy IPO. I am picking up some TLT.
Although I bought all in on the Spring drop and cannot take advantage of any more major drops in Gold (although I guess I can go without food for a few days to buy another ounce if need be).....I sleep well knowing I had the Gold in my possession (until it was lost) and even if you buy @ 900 , you have to worry until the minute the FedEx man rings your doorbell...
If you can't touch it, you don't own it, until you can touch it.
There is only one thing that will stop manipulation in the gold/silver markets, and that is the destruction of the tool used to manipulate. That is the paper markets, what can destroy the paper markets, a default of the Comex. They will push it to far one of these times and a few to many people will want delivery, and the manipulation at least in the current form will end. Keep stacking.
3% here we fucking come.
Only way to stop it, at least temporarily, is to let stocks tank in the hope that the money will flow back into the 10yr.
Thats quite a choice. Hopefully this is giving Yellen a severe case of the shits.
Why? The fed is buying ~ 80% of the issuance now. What's to stop them from buying 150%?
Well because, though the fed has some control over the long end of the curve they do not have complete control. If they attempt to buy 150% that means an additional 30 billion or so a month in money creation on top of what they are doing now, the more money they pump into the system the more likely it will not just stay at the fed, going into stocks, bonds, and and foreign central bank coffers and the more likely it becomes that it will go into consumer goods and final effect the CPI. When the government recognized price inflation starts to rise market participants will want more yield, and when this mechanism takes over, more money creation to buy bonds will only exacerbate the drop in bond prices/increase in yield. The fed is a big player but not the only player and unless they are willing to add 150% to the monetary base they can not be the only player. Can you imagine if they did manage to pump that much more money into the system, not to mention the money getting pumped into the mortgage market. That is the rock and a hard place the the Fed is stuck in, the catch 22 that the Austrians are talking about.
i fail to see how it would go into consumer prices
other asset prices would go up indeed but consumer goods i do not see how ?
Leakage buddy. If even a small amount of the QE money escapes into the general economy it’s velocity jumps by leaps and bounds. That causes consumer prices to rise. For example a bank sells some mortgage backed securities to the fed at top dollar, 90% of it they keep on the books at the fed (it has zero velocity and doesn’t cause consumer inflation), but they make some loans based on the other 10% and maybe pay some of the bankers salaries. Those bankers then get a gardener, stripper or whatever and the gardener or stripper spend it on consumer goods, and so on and so on, now that money is picking up velocity and can effect consumer prices. The fed can only persuade what is done with the money by things like paying interest on excess reserves (also money creation), but they do not have total control and I call the money that escapes their control leakage. Sure the bankers get ahold of it first and buy stocks and art and maybe more bonds so those things see price inflation, a lot of it might go to the Chinese or other foreign central banks causing price inflation in their countries, but some stays here and causes price inflation in consumer goods. We good now?
Many "smart" people said exactly the same thing in the 70's and yet, here we are....
Good point, but here is why we are in a different situation then in the 70’s. The fed and Volker had the ability in 1980/81 to get control of the mechanism described in my original post by jacking up interest rates to well above inflation. At that time he had to jack up interest rates up to the mid teens, we’ll say 15%. The government had the ability to handle the debt service at that rate since the federal debt was about 1/8th the GDP. The ones you are referring to in the 70’s assumed we were at debt saturation but we we’re not even close, now we are. Just try and do the same thing Volker did in todays market. We’ll say when they try to kill inflation by raising rates to 15% the Government debt is 20 trillion and GDP is 17.8 trillion. It would take a little time to roll over to 15% across the bond market but not all that long. At that point the government would be paying 3 trill in debt service, well over tax revenues, and that is assuming tax revenues wouldn’t drop which they would. That is an example of debt saturation but all debt markets are the same private, corporate ect. It was shown pretty clearly that we are debt saturated in 2008.
Another way to put this is, how do you know if someone can handle a certain level of debt, well you compare that debt level to income right? Well in ’81 we had a GDP (income) that was larger than our total debt credit market debt, now total credit market debt is about 4 times our GDP. See different world, its almost over the signs are there.
Good question though, keep um coming I like to test my logic.
Exactly what I have been saying since 2001. It will eventually "end" the exact same way it has ended every other time a monetary system becomes corrupt and detached from reality.
Print all the paper promises you want, the calories available for consumption (required in order to actually produce or do anything of real value) are what they are. More and more, this will be all that matters. If you read any of my posts, you know that I have been long sharecropping and black markets for quite some time. When fraud is the status quo (as it is now), possession is the law.
Hedge accordingly.
@LawsofPhysics. Sounds like your on point. I agree with your Fraud comment. It was fraud when the gold smith gave out to many receipts compared to the gold they held, just like fractional reserve banking is fraud, easily fixed by saying that deposits are not "on demand". But instead of fixing the real problem of a debt based monetary system, that must grow credit and money independent of the economy, they perpetuated the fraud through patches. The expansion and contraction of the fractional reserve created debt money, not the gold standard, is what caused the booms and busts of the 19th century, that cycle reaching a pinnacle in 1906, the patch they created was the “lender of last resort”, the Fed in 1913, who created an even larger boom in the ‘20’s and bust in the great depression. So they, through some more patches (FDIC insurance, confiscating gold ect.) attempted with all their new tools to perpetually create credit after WW2. Unfortunately with the Brettonwoods, they were still tied to gold, and gold in an economy can only grow based on trade surplus or mine production so they had to patch it again in 1971’. During the past 70 year they have used every trick in the book to keep credit growing, and keep all entities borrowing, longer loan duration, like 30 year mortgages, abandonment to any tie to gold, and now the last trick keep interest rates down as low as possible.
The system is failing now. I’m just curious what they will do to try and patch it. Here’s one way…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-electronic-currency-could-save-1212...
The above story is just like in 1913, 1933 and 1971, stealing from savers to benefit debtors. Penelize producers to the benefit of the banks and government. Its theft, its fraud, and the only solution to a system based in fraud is to eliminate it not patch it to make it work a little longer.
Any thougts?
Let's cut the Crap and the National Enquirer style headlines, shall we?
FACT is, there has been no Rally. Only the (almost) predictable "porpoising" of PM prices in a SIDEWAYS market that we've had for 6 months. And no end in sight.
But tons of speculation, whining and attempts to "pump & dump" from the Usual Suspects who have "skin in the game".
Pffff!
They are just burning shortside everywhere today. That is Them.