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Guest Post: Looming U.S. Retail Implosion: DeGrowth 2014

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Overbuilding and overconsumption as models of "growth" have reached exhaustion.

I recently addressed the bogus model of "growth" based on adding retail space and the DeGrowth movement, which is based on a sustainable model of doing more with less.

The American Model of "Growth": Overbuilding and Poaching November 19, 2013

Have a Merry DeGrowth Christmas--Boycott Black Friday November 20, 2013

Gordon Long invited me to discuss these topics with him, and the result is this 25-minute video of informative slides and our unscripted discussion of the exhaustion of the consumerist/expanding retail space model of growth.

 

 

LOOMING US RETAIL IMPLOSION: An Urgent Re-Think Required

Various propaganda attempts are being made to air-brush lackluster holiday spending into a happy story of strong "growth," but the over-all picture is of stagnation, not "growth."

The propaganda will soon shift to predicting "strong after-Christmas sales" and gift card redemptions in January; if after-Christmas sales are the foundation of "growth" and earnings, the U.S. economy is in real trouble.

Santa, Please Let This Be the Last Christmas in America That "Saves" the U.S. Economy(December 19, 2012)
Santa, please, please, please strangle the idiotic fantasy that Americans buying a bunch of junk (or gift cards for after-Christmas purchases of junk) will "save" the U.S. economy.

 


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Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

BY order of the Brown Shirts you must buy. Now!

March !

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Kaufe macht frei.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:26 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Bigger news to save the regime and retail sales:

 

12/4 1806 ET BREAKING NEWS: Hijacked truck with Radioactive Materials in Mexico City recovered-cargo gone!!!

 

Now go out and buy something to be patriotic you asses!!!!!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 04:21 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

You are a bit late. That story is about 3 days old and the current news is that the Radioactive Materials have been recovered.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/12/04/stolen-radioactive-material-foun...

BTW, I heard a statistic that about 100 incidences of stolen or mislplaced radioactive materials happen each year. I have no verified that statistic.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

You mean Obama Youth.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:58 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I don't get it. You want us to buy, start mailing us 2500.00 checks per month. You can print free money for your bankster buddies, but not for the people? Is that it? Is it a big club, and we're not in it?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

That would be 10 times the current amount of stimulus, at $850 billion per month. A one-time $3000 per person Christmas shopping bonus would be more in-line, on prepaid credit cards set to lose 10% of their balance every month would work splended, I think. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

If you like your economic misery, you can keep your economic misery.

Idiots voted for this in 2008 and 2012.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment IdiocracyIsAlre...
IdiocracyIsAlreadyHere's picture

And in 2000 and 2004 as well.  Your partisan blinders never cease to amaze me.  A vote for ANY member of the Republicrat duopoly cartel is a vote for slow suicide.  Get a clue.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Prosperity through waste...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 22:24 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Nah. The ChiComs warned us the retail implosion was coming....the container data does also...

 

How Chinese Data Predicted a Crappy Christmas Retail Season

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment skank
skank's picture

I Want a Hippopotamus For Christmas...(Lyrics in MORE)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oOzszFIBcE

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

If a hundred million people spent a hundred bucks for Christmas, that's three and a half days of QE.

Oh noes, what about the other days!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 07:26 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

QE IS abiotic! (salvation!)

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:20 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT... the ChiCom data tells the tale of the tape. More on that later tonight...after one more martini....:)

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Up voted based on your screen name alone.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Wyatt Junker
Wyatt Junker's picture

Its aiight.  Just go buy s'more shit. 

Ever been to the Dollar Store?  They have lots of cute little ponies that someone in Tijuana slathers with a glue stick and sprinkles glitter on.

Get some of those.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

And just nibble on one to get your RDA in lead.

Miffed;-)

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:00 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Last dollar store pony I bought was defective; I dropped it and an package of coke fell out of its ass.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

Pretty good return on Investment  :)

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 07:26 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

So, you're just pulling shit out your ass now? :-)

Thanks for the great laugh!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment StillSilence
StillSilence's picture

The idea of growth sounds good, until you realize whats growing is cancerous.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 07:29 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Growth itself is cancer.  This here is a finite planet, perpetual growth is NOT possible.  Yet!  We've predicated everything on the mantra of growth.  Clearly our problems are much deeper than that of being the result of "voting" for this or that, of "taxing" (or not taxing) this or that, or "worshiping" this or that...

Go forth and multiply until...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I refuse to buy anything more than necessities.  Starve the beast!

Your only true way to fight back is via your wallet.  Money is all that keeps government and fascism alive.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

When .Gov starts ordering toilet paper in the billions of rolls, driving the price up and introducing scarcity into the market, you know we're gonna be in deep shit...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'd rather wipe my ass with government but they're not even useful for that.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Platinum
Platinum's picture

The American Dollar will be recycled into new materials after the collapse. Toilet paper being the most likely outcome.

Shit in, shit out. In the end.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:55 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

they made it very difficult to do (the globals), but shop or eat, drink (coffee, whatever) at establishments that have one (or two at best) cash registers, that have owners and take CASH.  (and will sometimes extend credit and even barter).  support other people, not corporations.  it's that simple.  i'm very fortunate because the urban area where i live, this still exists.  my uncle crys about having to go to home depot, but i've still got a hardware store, and a lumber yard and they are cheaper and know what they have, how it works, what i need.  i still have a drug store, two actually, and they are almost 30% less than the national chains.  and again, they stock good stuff and know what i need when i ask for it.

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 07:35 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I view it more as doing it because it's the RIGHT thing to do.  It's prudent.

The "beast" is "unsustainability."

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Suisse
Suisse's picture

Retail is dead, the retailers just don't realize they're mostly walking corpses yet. 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I think that most retailers do realize it. I firmly believe that after the post Christmas/New Years sales the decline in retail sales will rapidly accelerate. By Mid-March there is going to be a widespread retail crisis with only those stores selling 'essentials' like food being able to marginally survive. Strip malls that are not fully abandoned now soon will be. The only areas that will see steady customers are those specialty shops that sell goods and services exclusively to the top 20%.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

One can only hope.  Next will be hitting services companies since it's 70% of the eCONomy.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:06 | Link to Comment tvdog
tvdog's picture

Can the top 20% consume enough to sustain the entire economy? If so, then economically it's not an issue if 80% of the people have nothing.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 07:36 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Can the top 20% consume enough to sustain the entire economy?"

I'm sure they'll give it their patriotic best...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

My daughter is a senior buyer for a leading  menswear site - growth quarter to quarter continues to increase showing momentum is escalating  - increasing  / gaining over bricks and mortar as compared to A & F for example with multiple down quarters - focused on men less than 36 years old while this demographic  shops price they are looking for style more than not  and the diversity of the internet offers them possibly more alternatives and selection

another anecdote - i replaced brakes and shocks recently all with internet purchases - the mechanics say that this year the majority are bringing their own parts to the shop for install - each time tried to source local and the prices were 30% more

then i rehab'd a kitchen and bath - all electric & plumbing fixtures, cabinets, stone, etc were web based purchases - contracted out the install and basic materials - the richness of selection was far greater than local retail and much cheaper (24%) aside from no sales tax - and the site management was great interface even with returns or other issues

i think retail may be coming for a cliff of a disaster - those jobs are going and then.....fast food maybe the only thing left for most of these people

 

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I'm ordering replacement side mirrors for my car and found a youtube video on how to install them. Its so easy I can do it myself. 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 22:31 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

There seems to be newly opened businesses lately that are giving away everything for free to get customers through the door. They'll burn up a lot of captal giving away freebies.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 04:16 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

That reminds me of the joke that the banks are so broke that you buy a toaster and they give you a bank as a gift

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:24 | Link to Comment brettd
brettd's picture

Might want to get a second opinion from your wife/girlfriend....

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Amazon and it's minions, coupled with dozens of 1mn sf. warehouses will take over the web-space.  So when the sheeple order in droves and you're on (N)SAnta's naughty list, the drone you ran outside for, thinking it's your package, will just drop a grenade on your ass.  Amazon will keep your order $$ and rack up a reward from .Gov for thinning the terrist herd.  Welcome to Ecommerce 2.0...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Until further notice, at my house Santa will be refered to as THAT CHEAP BASTARD !

Die Walmart and take all that cheap Chinese shit with you to your grave.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:45 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

That's THAT CHEAP FAT BASTARD to you, slave ... now get in me belly!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment markovchainey
markovchainey's picture

How does reindeer taste?  "Thanks for bringing dinner Santa!"

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 08:06 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I couldn't really tell.  And, given the season we're in, I'm thinking I don't want to run around telling everyone how that dinning experience was...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Wal Mart is becoming just an EBT grocery store.  I have seen newer prototype stores and they are very little merchandise and lots of food plus much of it is boxes with processed shit/treats with corn syrup.  If it wasn't for food stamps - WMT would be in big trouble.

Don't forget to F TV and Hollywood by pulling the plug on TV and Hollywood's shit.  If not then you are not really straving the beast.

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

The Horror... the Ho Ho Horror.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxvDMWRG-gQ

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment logos5
logos5's picture

God gave us one mouth and two hands for a reason.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Time for fed plan Z:

A credit card with a 25 grand limit for anyone between the ages of 12-25 *

 

 

 

 

 

 

*25% interest, same bankruptcy status as student loans.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:56 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Die retail...die!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Hail Spode
Hail Spode's picture

Localism is the only poltiical philosophy which can address the serious issues Evans-Hughes raises, not just about monetary policy but also international corporations.   Power will be centralized, and therefore freedom lost, unless both money and commerce operate within rules which have the effect of DE-centralizing power rather than the current set-up which operate to centralize it.  http://www.amazon.com/Localism-A-Philosophy-Government-ebook/dp/B00B0GAC...

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 08:14 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Conservation of energy law pretty much guarantees this.  And as less and less energy is in our future it'll only be that much easier to withdraw our energies from the NWO path.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Christmas cancelled due to disappointed commercialism?

Who knew?!

Meanwhile, traditions happen happily, regardless of cynical cronies.

Wise men brought gold, and other valuable tributes.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Meanwhile, traditions happen happily, regardless of cynical cronies."

Yup, looking forward to winter solstice.  Those far enough north will be closer on track to see the "Sun" rise again... followed by the spring of life.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 23:08 | Link to Comment The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

Give the Gift of the MAGI... Gold..

  because i don't know where to buy Mir & Frankincense

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 02:35 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Detroit being allowed to go down the Chapter 9 route is where this is all headed. your pension and benefits as a state retiree are not safe. I think this goes a long way towards explaining both the huge sell off in long dated treasuries yesterday and "taking that gift of the magi" thank you very much. in other words we're heading into a possible wave of defaults and restructuring at the State and local level as the "jobless prosperity" continues to run it's course. simply pit there not only has been zero money multiplier for the economy as a whole but in fact it looks like the exact opposite is happening. a market soaring on inflation expectations versus soaring on real growth numbers are two very different things. I agree you could get a huge downdraft in sales in the immediate term...so sure...there is a huge spread between short and long term rates right now (historic actually)...and this puts the goods on the shelves "just in time for the holiday season" ... but as any retailer will tell you "the only thing goods on the shelf are worth are what the customer will pay for it." and yes the retailer is paying for those goods to sit there. so "as with a collapse in M2 so you get a huge reduction in sales activities and cash flow." Post Christmas is when the bill comes due for the channel stuffers...we'll see if "all cash all the time" USA hits an air pocket then and rates on overnight money goes through the roof. the dollar has had a fantastic year once you dump the euro out of the index.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 08:25 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Good analysis.

I suspect that "retirement" in general is something that is going to perish from our lexicon.  When there's no "excess" to pull from the future it was always inevitable: on the wall is written "demographics" (an inability to sustain enough younger people to carry the load).

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