The Last Two Times This Happened, Things Didn't End Well

Tyler Durden's picture

With the almost extinction of 'bears' we noted last week, the bull-bear index has now crossed the Rubicon into a euphoria mode that marked the turning point before the last 2 major corrections in the US equity market. Of course, we are sure, this time is different; but hasn't the Fed 'always' had our back? Perhaps, as GenRe's CIO notes, "gravity will win," after all?



Shrugging that off... this has happened 15 times in the last 24 years with stocks falling 79% of the time in the following 3 months...


h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Occident Mortal's picture

Buy Gold

DJIA hits epic resistance and reverse on profit taking.

Four chan's picture

i just went 100% short this mother.

Occident Mortal's picture

Buy Gold

Simple charts work best

Sell -
Buy -

Dow has hit its Master resistance level and is reversing on monumental profit taking.

Gold has fallen to its long term (20 year) support level.

Both pivots happening at the same time? Same month? Same week?
This is not a coincidence.

This is THE TRADE everyone has wanted to make and everyone has fired all their bullets at for the past 5 years. They were all premature.

Price exploration obeys market depth and market depth is ruled by technical pivots. These pivot mark the end of the credit expansion, the market is too deep here, too deep with profit takers.

Obchelli's picture

Bullish with infinite rising QE

What's not to understand there?


Occident Mortal's picture

A higher low above the Dow resistance would invalidate the setup.

A lower high below the gold support would invalidate that.


You don't hold counter trend forever. You plan an exit strategy for both success and failure.

flacon's picture

I have GDX calls, DIA puts and today I initiated PCLN puts. 

I can't believe is where it is today. It's just a travel agency!

Sonic the porcupine's picture

Must be nice to know when the DJIA has topped and gold has bottomed. Oh, that I had your clairvoyance!


I agree with you, sell DJIA and buy gold. But do you really think you can time the market?

draghithebearslayer's picture


it's impossible. you can't time the market, period. if someone could, then it means there's a certain way - a logical process involving data gathering and analysis - and if there's such a way, soon people will identify it and exploit it, rendering the said process inapplicable.

all those people who made fortune timing the markets were nothing more than lucky winners. there're probably more lottery winner millionares than those who made their fortunes timing the market.

Zero guest's picture

Last spring the S&P was at this exact spot on its chart. It stumbled but then pushed right up through its trendline. We wont have to wait long to see what happens to the Dow.

RockRiver's picture


i just went 100% short this mother.


good luck.


You have bigger nuggets than I to fight this trend.

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

You're nuts. Unless the Fed fucks up momentarily and we get a short sharp plunge in the DOW which will take gold with it and you manage to time the exit before the Fed panics and doubles down on QE. At which point things will get chaotic ito say the least. 

The only way I think this cluster fuck can be traded is with a straddle position on <insert market index here> but with a guaranteed stop loss on the long position. We all know this cluster fuck is destined for a crash but it will not go out with a whimper. The Fed WILL print more money, get this straight, THEY WILL NOT STOP. These are sick mother fuckers who are now deep in the hole and will double down like a chronic gambler to dig themselves out.

Your long position will simply protect you from a margin call as the markets keep going up, your guaranteed stop loss on the long side will protect your short position during the crash. There's mo other way unless you sit on the fed board. The risk, and I think it is significant, is that the short position when it finally gets into the money will not be paid out because there will be no system left and no man standing, everyone will be broke one way of another. Well except for the Dimons and Blankfeins who know what the Fed are going to do every step of the way.

Sonic the porcupine's picture

What percentage of investors is bullish/bearish?

70% bullish 30% bearish?

60% bullish 20% bearish 20% undecided?


Jumbotron's picture

Fuck ALL of these charts.

Hugh Hendry knows the score.   The FED is in control.  Ain't NOTHIN' going down with the Fed backstopping the WHOLE FUCKING UNIVERSE !!


Nobody For President's picture

And please to remember: The Market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. (Keynes - probably the most accurate thing he ever said.)

NOT, mind you, that we really have a market any more, we have a Fed manipulated big bank casino and I have an uneasy feeling who the sucker is...

Holding cash, ready to TZA on the morrow if it is looking good. I mean, the fucker went down on a double pomo day this week - that is telling me something.

frankTHE COIN's picture

" So you're saying I've got a chance. "

Quant Jockey's picture

I ask the wife that every night, to which she replies, "not a chance."

Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

What is special about what you are asking?  Anal perhaps?

Legolas's picture

But they didn't have the 3:30 ramp up, like we have today.  Uncle Ben, he's gonna hold this thing up for another month, and then turn it over to Tootsy Yellen to work her magic.


rosiescenario's picture

Exactly....things are different this time...the inmates are in absolute control of the asylum.

Legolas's picture

Uncle Ben must have just climaxed.  3:42 and Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all green again.  


Shoot, we still have 15 minutes to go!  Enough time to monkey-hammer PM's  !!

BringOnTheAsteroid's picture





We are standing on the stern of the Titanic just at the moment Jack instructs Rose to hold her breath. Hearing in my mind that melancholic Titanic theme as a once great nation heads to the bottom of the ocean. Indeed, very sad.

gjp's picture

Another magic stick save today, erasing all losses, it's so easy.  But volatility does seem to be building ... come on China, pull the fuckin plug already!

goatmug's picture

Apparently the last 2 times it did this, it only delayed the non-stop melt up.  We've finally got it right and the market understands that non-GDP, full on socialism, and destruction of the constitution is good.  3rd times a charm I'm sure.  (sacr off)

FieldingMellish's picture

"Don't tell me the valuation, it is trending." #HughHendrysMirror

CClarity's picture

Insiders "know" that when the Fed runs out of Tbonds to buy they can scoop up corp bonds to try to hold l-t rates down. And if necessary for the wealth effect and pension returns to be > 3%, Yellen will start buying equities. Why not? There are no rules.

LooseLee's picture

'Insiders' are Pinko Commies and will suffer the fate pre-determined for them.....

Bastiat's picture

Yellen can buy muni restructuring bonds and pension obligation bonds -- or the sneaky way - lend the money to banks to buy them, then buy them from the banks when they go bad.

material girl's picture

i think it crossed 40 last week.

FieldingMellish's picture

The deck chairs can be rearranged in a thousand different ways but the Titanic will still sink.

youngman's picture

I think the Fed will be buying Chinas bonds first......they should start dumping soon I think....afterr they drop a Jap plane or two first

20-20 Hindsight's picture

Christ almighty!  If I had a dollar for each time I've read that "this will end badly" in the past three years alone,  I would be a fucking billionnaire today.  

A82EBA's picture

yeah, after she doubles QE we can repeat the same conversations for 4 more years.

LooseLee's picture

...and if you're a billionaire, by definition, you are a Pinko Commie. Comprende?

Tall Tom's picture

But this time it is different?


When it ends badly that Billion will not buy you a Loaf of Bread. So you are disappointed that it hasn't?


Come on baby...end badly. Will you be any happier after it has ended badly?


Yeah..."Good news. We survive to eat another day..."


"Oh shit. I did not want to hear that noise. I wanted it to end badly."

Ham-bone's picture

the last couple times there was a "safe" option to move to bonds and get paid while you wait for the smoke to clear...that option really isn't an option any more...thanks Fed for pushing everybody in this room w/ the sign "risk" over the doorway and barring all the exits...just hope there aren't any sparks cause there seems to be an awful lot of flamable stuff all around.

Clowns on Acid's picture

The Fabian socialists at the Fed have "collectivized" the "free" markets. The USSR failed because they ddin't allow "free" markets. Had they known that all one has to do is to control the markets rather than the prices of all outputs, they would have had a better run.

"Fairness" according to the Fabians at the Fed, dictates that interest rates must remain at zero (imagine...the US w ZERO% interest rates !), and that printing money into the banks must continue until unemployment magically reaches 6.5%. The fact that equity markets rise parabolically is just a convenient by product of their policy.

 WTF !!  

max2205's picture

QE on...throw charts away

Ham-bone's picture

actually the charts make it so easy today...for when to get long, longer, longest.  It's like the Fed is ringing the dinner bell and the algo's play right along.  Only thing many have trouble with is understanding, believing, trusting there is a floor under everything...just trust the money printing, click your heels together, and winner winner chicken dinner every time.

It's an environment where both morons and machiavellian genius is equally rewarded.  Only those "contrarian" fools or smart guys who "know better" than the herd get destroyed. 

starman's picture

I beleive this Christmass will be one where many wont forget!

this shit circus is about to fold! 

Teddy Tenpole's picture



You Doomer Douchebags crack me up.  Look at the chart -- what didn't end well about 2011 tyler?  even if you bought it as stoopid as possible the ES is still up 400 points!


this whole, "last time it happened... is such garbage


For the hundreth time -- ZH has great info, why the dark spin?

mommy didn't love you Ty?

Did you get fired or lose your mandate running money for being that "mayor mccheese of planet stoopidhead" portfolio manager guy?  and did the other ivyleague cunts laugh at you?


poor baby, get over it dude.


We've all lost lots of money and have been humbled by the market.


Fight Club means you keep fighting and get stronger, you are going the wrong way tyler.  it's sad.


now don't go and pull a hugh hendry (cocksucker move or what?) but don't turn into a doomer boomer douche.


don't turn into bill fleckendouchesteinmeoff or marc ladyboidocenfarbio heck, even david rosinpennis came around 

...and another tremendous interview with tyler durdendouche is sponsored by eric sprottinfucker...  LMAO


peace out Douche Club

yofish's picture

I think you're being a little harsh with the truth. Um, I mean MOAR truthiness. Also, I decrement for not including an acronym using A, T, B and another cap or three of your choice. 

nightshiftsucks's picture

 Wow Teddy Turdpole licker, what happened to you ? It seems like you must have killed your boomer parents and went back on your meds. Everything is right in the world for you now...or did you find yourself a new boyfriend with a big penis ?

Teddy Tenpole's picture



haha, naw nothing that serious

just havin' fun on here, that's all


you ever come up with something funny to say?


Tall Tom's picture

If you really think that we want it to end badly...WE DON'T.


Yeah. I want to be starving to death, suffering miserably, so I can say, "I...WAS...(GASP)...RIGHT", then Die?


Maybe we post as we see what you see as the Light at the End of the Tunnel...except that...Oh shit...It is the headlight of an oncoming Freight Train...


Man you have no clue how often I have prayed to be shown that I am wrong. But it is the fucking Math. And we are so damned cooked.


Tears well up in my eyes just typing this. Of all of the dumbfuck things that we have done...It might have been different. But it is not.


There is nothing funny about it except that of the Gallows Humor.

LooseLee's picture

Pinko Commies pretending to be Freedom-Loving Americans will die a horrible death...