This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

The Last Two Times This Happened, Things Didn't End Well

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the almost extinction of 'bears' we noted last week, the bull-bear index has now crossed the Rubicon into a euphoria mode that marked the turning point before the last 2 major corrections in the US equity market. Of course, we are sure, this time is different; but hasn't the Fed 'always' had our back? Perhaps, as GenRe's CIO notes, "gravity will win," after all?

 

 

Shrugging that off... this has happened 15 times in the last 24 years with stocks falling 79% of the time in the following 3 months...

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:32 | 4214898 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Sell DJIA
Buy Gold

DJIA hits epic resistance and reverse on profit taking.
http://i43.tinypic.com/71mj5f.jpg

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:40 | 4214942 Four chan
Four chan's picture

i just went 100% short this mother.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:44 | 4214952 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Sell DJIA
Buy Gold

Simple charts work best

Sell - http://i43.tinypic.com/28ib6fk.png
Buy - http://i47.tinypic.com/2639f5y.jpg

Dow has hit its Master resistance level and is reversing on monumental profit taking.

Gold has fallen to its long term (20 year) support level.

Both pivots happening at the same time? Same month? Same week?
This is not a coincidence.

This is THE TRADE everyone has wanted to make and everyone has fired all their bullets at for the past 5 years. They were all premature.

Price exploration obeys market depth and market depth is ruled by technical pivots. These pivot mark the end of the credit expansion, the market is too deep here, too deep with profit takers.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:02 | 4215017 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Bullish with infinite rising QE

What's not to understand there?

BTFATH

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:07 | 4215039 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

A higher low above the Dow resistance would invalidate the setup.

A lower high below the gold support would invalidate that.

 

You don't hold counter trend forever. You plan an exit strategy for both success and failure.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:12 | 4215051 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I think my taper fuse is getting shorter everyday.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:19 | 4215067 flacon
flacon's picture

I have GDX calls, DIA puts and today I initiated PCLN puts. 

I can't believe priceLYING.com is where it is today. It's just a travel agency! http://scharts.co/IsLUmn

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:56 | 4215429 Sonic the porcupine
Sonic the porcupine's picture

Must be nice to know when the DJIA has topped and gold has bottomed. Oh, that I had your clairvoyance!

PS

I agree with you, sell DJIA and buy gold. But do you really think you can time the market?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 00:47 | 4216588 draghithebearslayer
draghithebearslayer's picture

exactly.

it's impossible. you can't time the market, period. if someone could, then it means there's a certain way - a logical process involving data gathering and analysis - and if there's such a way, soon people will identify it and exploit it, rendering the said process inapplicable.

all those people who made fortune timing the markets were nothing more than lucky winners. there're probably more lottery winner millionares than those who made their fortunes timing the market.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:45 | 4215613 Zero guest
Zero guest's picture

Last spring the S&P was at this exact spot on its chart. It stumbled but then pushed right up through its trendline. We wont have to wait long to see what happens to the Dow.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:23 | 4215089 RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

 

i just went 100% short this mother.

 

good luck.

 

You have bigger nuggets than I to fight this trend.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:01 | 4215215 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

What about the Gold trend?

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/2utjeo1.png

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:01 | 4215876 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

You're nuts. Unless the Fed fucks up momentarily and we get a short sharp plunge in the DOW which will take gold with it and you manage to time the exit before the Fed panics and doubles down on QE. At which point things will get chaotic ito say the least. 

The only way I think this cluster fuck can be traded is with a straddle position on <insert market index here> but with a guaranteed stop loss on the long position. We all know this cluster fuck is destined for a crash but it will not go out with a whimper. The Fed WILL print more money, get this straight, THEY WILL NOT STOP. These are sick mother fuckers who are now deep in the hole and will double down like a chronic gambler to dig themselves out.

Your long position will simply protect you from a margin call as the markets keep going up, your guaranteed stop loss on the long side will protect your short position during the crash. There's mo other way unless you sit on the fed board. The risk, and I think it is significant, is that the short position when it finally gets into the money will not be paid out because there will be no system left and no man standing, everyone will be broke one way of another. Well except for the Dimons and Blankfeins who know what the Fed are going to do every step of the way.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:52 | 4214985 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Setup of the year 2013!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:05 | 4215460 Sonic the porcupine
Sonic the porcupine's picture

What percentage of investors is bullish/bearish?

70% bullish 30% bearish?

60% bullish 20% bearish 20% undecided?

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:30 | 4214899 hedgeless_horseman
Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:59 | 4215202 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Fuck ALL of these charts.

Hugh Hendry knows the score.   The FED is in control.  Ain't NOTHIN' going down with the Fed backstopping the WHOLE FUCKING UNIVERSE !!

BUY THE TREND !!!!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:34 | 4215793 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

And please to remember: The Market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. (Keynes - probably the most accurate thing he ever said.)

NOT, mind you, that we really have a market any more, we have a Fed manipulated big bank casino and I have an uneasy feeling who the sucker is...

Holding cash, ready to TZA on the morrow if it is looking good. I mean, the fucker went down on a double pomo day this week - that is telling me something.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:29 | 4214905 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

" So you're saying I've got a chance. "

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:42 | 4215378 Quant Jockey
Quant Jockey's picture

I ask the wife that every night, to which she replies, "not a chance."

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:06 | 4215463 Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

What is special about what you are asking?  Anal perhaps?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:31 | 4214911 Legolas
Legolas's picture

But they didn't have the 3:30 ramp up, like we have today.  Uncle Ben, he's gonna hold this thing up for another month, and then turn it over to Tootsy Yellen to work her magic.

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:37 | 4214925 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Exactly....things are different this time...the inmates are in absolute control of the asylum.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:46 | 4214950 Legolas
Legolas's picture

Uncle Ben must have just climaxed.  3:42 and Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all green again.  

 

Shoot, we still have 15 minutes to go!  Enough time to monkey-hammer PM's  !!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:08 | 4215902 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

IT IS DIFFERENT.

THE DOLLAR AND ALL OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY SACRIFICED.

NO OTHER TIME IN MARKET HISTORY HAS THIS HAPPENED.

HOW CAN IT NOT BE DIFFERENT.

We are standing on the stern of the Titanic just at the moment Jack instructs Rose to hold her breath. Hearing in my mind that melancholic Titanic theme as a once great nation heads to the bottom of the ocean. Indeed, very sad.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:36 | 4214923 gjp
gjp's picture

Another magic stick save today, erasing all losses, it's so easy.  But volatility does seem to be building ... come on China, pull the fuckin plug already!

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:37 | 4214926 goatmug
goatmug's picture

Apparently the last 2 times it did this, it only delayed the non-stop melt up.  We've finally got it right and the market understands that non-GDP, full on socialism, and destruction of the constitution is good.  3rd times a charm I'm sure.  (sacr off)

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:39 | 4214930 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

"Don't tell me the valuation, it is trending." #HughHendrysMirror

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:40 | 4214933 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Insiders "know" that when the Fed runs out of Tbonds to buy they can scoop up corp bonds to try to hold l-t rates down. And if necessary for the wealth effect and pension returns to be > 3%, Yellen will start buying equities. Why not? There are no rules.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:29 | 4215774 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

'Insiders' are Pinko Commies and will suffer the fate pre-determined for them.....

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:43 | 4214946 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Yellen can buy muni restructuring bonds and pension obligation bonds -- or the sneaky way - lend the money to banks to buy them, then buy them from the banks when they go bad.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:44 | 4214947 material girl
material girl's picture

i think it crossed 40 last week.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:43 | 4214953 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The deck chairs can be rearranged in a thousand different ways but the Titanic will still sink.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:58 | 4215005 Uber Vandal
Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:39 | 4215142 W74
Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:45 | 4214957 youngman
youngman's picture

I think the Fed will be buying Chinas bonds first......they should start dumping soon I think....afterr they drop a Jap plane or two first

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 16:56 | 4214994 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

Christ almighty!  If I had a dollar for each time I've read that "this will end badly" in the past three years alone,  I would be a fucking billionnaire today.  

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:33 | 4215130 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

yeah, after she doubles QE we can repeat the same conversations for 4 more years.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:33 | 4215785 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

...and if you're a billionaire, by definition, you are a Pinko Commie. Comprende?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:30 | 4215955 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

But this time it is different?

 

When it ends badly that Billion will not buy you a Loaf of Bread. So you are disappointed that it hasn't?

 

Come on baby...end badly. Will you be any happier after it has ended badly?

 

Yeah..."Good news. We survive to eat another day..."

 

"Oh shit. I did not want to hear that noise. I wanted it to end badly."

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:16 | 4215036 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

the last couple times there was a "safe" option to move to bonds and get paid while you wait for the smoke to clear...that option really isn't an option any more...thanks Fed for pushing everybody in this room w/ the sign "risk" over the doorway and barring all the exits...just hope there aren't any sparks cause there seems to be an awful lot of flamable stuff all around.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:08 | 4215040 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

The Fabian socialists at the Fed have "collectivized" the "free" markets. The USSR failed because they ddin't allow "free" markets. Had they known that all one has to do is to control the markets rather than the prices of all outputs, they would have had a better run.

"Fairness" according to the Fabians at the Fed, dictates that interest rates must remain at zero (imagine...the US w ZERO% interest rates !), and that printing money into the banks must continue until unemployment magically reaches 6.5%. The fact that equity markets rise parabolically is just a convenient by product of their policy.

 WTF !!  

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:17 | 4215071 max2205
max2205's picture

QE on...throw charts away

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:27 | 4215099 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

actually the charts make it so easy today...for when to get long, longer, longest.  It's like the Fed is ringing the dinner bell and the algo's play right along.  Only thing many have trouble with is understanding, believing, trusting there is a floor under everything...just trust the money printing, click your heels together, and winner winner chicken dinner every time.

It's an environment where both morons and machiavellian genius is equally rewarded.  Only those "contrarian" fools or smart guys who "know better" than the herd get destroyed. 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 17:25 | 4215102 starman
starman's picture

I beleive this Christmass will be one where many wont forget!

this shit circus is about to fold! 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:18 | 4215254 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

You Doomer Douchebags crack me up.  Look at the chart -- what didn't end well about 2011 tyler?  even if you bought it as stoopid as possible the ES is still up 400 points!

 

this whole, "last time it happened... is such garbage

 

For the hundreth time -- ZH has great info, why the dark spin?

mommy didn't love you Ty?

Did you get fired or lose your mandate running money for being that "mayor mccheese of planet stoopidhead" portfolio manager guy?  and did the other ivyleague cunts laugh at you?

 

poor baby, get over it dude.

 

We've all lost lots of money and have been humbled by the market.

 

Fight Club means you keep fighting and get stronger, you are going the wrong way tyler.  it's sad.

 

now don't go and pull a hugh hendry (cocksucker move or what?) but don't turn into a doomer boomer douche.

 

don't turn into bill fleckendouchesteinmeoff or marc ladyboidocenfarbio heck, even david rosinpennis came around 

...and another tremendous interview with tyler durdendouche is sponsored by eric sprottinfucker...  LMAO

 

peace out Douche Club

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:24 | 4215314 yofish
yofish's picture

I think you're being a little harsh with the truth. Um, I mean MOAR truthiness. Also, I decrement for not including an acronym using A, T, B and another cap or three of your choice. 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:28 | 4215325 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

 Wow Teddy Turdpole licker, what happened to you ? It seems like you must have killed your boomer parents and went back on your meds. Everything is right in the world for you now...or did you find yourself a new boyfriend with a big penis ?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 18:39 | 4215372 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

haha, naw nothing that serious

just havin' fun on here, that's all

 

you ever come up with something funny to say?

 

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:48 | 4216027 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

If you really think that we want it to end badly...WE DON'T.

 

Yeah. I want to be starving to death, suffering miserably, so I can say, "I...WAS...(GASP)...RIGHT", then Die?

 

Maybe we post as we see what you see as the Light at the End of the Tunnel...except that...Oh shit...It is the headlight of an oncoming Freight Train...

 

Man you have no clue how often I have prayed to be shown that I am wrong. But it is the fucking Math. And we are so damned cooked.

 

Tears well up in my eyes just typing this. Of all of the dumbfuck things that we have done...It might have been different. But it is not.

 

There is nothing funny about it except that of the Gallows Humor.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:34 | 4215792 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Pinko Commies pretending to be Freedom-Loving Americans will die a horrible death...

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:07 | 4215893 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

 

What about Negroid ones?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 19:35 | 4215570 Zero guest
Zero guest's picture

Last spring the S&P was at this exact spot on its chart. It stumbled but then pushed right up through its trendline. We wont have to wait long to see what happens to the Dow.

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 20:24 | 4215743 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Pinko commies are long equities; Freedom loving true capitalists are SHORT equities. If you're not part of the SOLUTION you are part of the problem. Understand?

Wed, 12/04/2013 - 21:10 | 4215904 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

Which is Roper and which is Williams?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:06 | 4220476 FearedDevil
FearedDevil's picture

you are right... the last time was in Gold

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!