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October New Home Sales Surge By Most Since 1980 As Median Price Drops To One Year Low
With the government shutdown which apparently had zero impact on the economy, moments ago the Census Bureau released not one but two New Home Sales reports together due to the delay in data reporting. The data showed that while in September new home sales declined from 379K to 354K annualized, or the lowest since early 2012, the subsequent rebound sent New Home Sales to 444K, or a 90K increase, +25.4%, in one month was the biggest month over month jump since May 1980! What was less noted is the prior revisions, with June revised 0.9% lower, July down 4.4%, and August revised by a whopping 10% lower. So what caused the October surge? Possibly it was pent up demand, because as the first chart below shows, an unbroken trendline suggests a modest decline in sales data net of the prior downward revisions. However, what was most likely the reason for the increase is that the Median new home sales price tumbled to $245,800, down from $257,400 and well below the recent highs of $279,300. In fact, this was the lost median new price in one year. Supply - meet demand, and equilibrium price.
New Home Sales:
The Sequential change: biggest jump in over 30 years!
And the other variable: Median home prices.... which keeps on sliding.
Finally, it is unclear why stocks soared as a result of this report. It was hardly bad, and all the evidence points to the big Service ISM miss as being the culprit for the stock ramp.
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WTF is going on today? First ADP soars, then ISM shits the bed. And first new-mortgage applications tank, and then home sales soar?
Wait a minute.... Are you suggesting that someone in the government is manipulating market data?
Can't happen here in the USA
Baffled! Especially since last month we were told that home sales were down because there was no inventory. Miraculously, a bunch of new homes were built and sold the very next month. But then did I see a report showing that sales of appliances was down.............
What does $250,000 get you in Houston?
7138 Windwater Pk Houston, TX 77036
2,368 sf + 2 car garage + yard
24hrs gated community with guards on-site. Modern contemporary house with red tile roof, wood floor, granite countertop with granite splash, gaslog fireplace to warm-up living and dining rooms at the same time! Great spaces for family and friends! All bedrooms have good size for bed and furnitures. Wonderful pool views from all 3 stories and quiet, neat community. Downstair formal living has half bath and can turn into great spacious office area!
$250,000
What does $250,000 get you in the SF Bay area?
763 Franklin St Apt 423 Oakland, CA 94607
679 sf
In the heart of Oakland Chinatown. Easy access to public transaction, freeways, walking distance to restaurants, banks and medical center.
$250,000
What does $250,000 get you in the NYC area?
6600 Blvd E West New York, NJ 07093
850 sf
Beautiful apt. w/ breath taking views of NYC skyline & Hudson River. Luxury hirise bldg w/ full amenities. EZ commute,minutes by ferry shuttle or 20 minutes by bus to NYC at door step. Close to waterfront shopping,restaurants,movie theater...Near parks,lake,tennis courts,jogging trails and many other sports activities.
$250,000
20 minutes by bus [ON A GOOD DAY] over the GWB gets you to the Washington Heights terminal, only. Ferries are expensive.
For a reliably 40 minute mass transit commute to midtown within the three boroughs (good luck with 40 minutes from SI or anyplace you would want to live in the Bronx), door-to-door, the price starts around $225k per bedroom, adding about $100k for each 10 minute increment knocked off that commute. Key word there is "starts".
In San Diego $250K will get you a rat infested condo with a thirty mile commute. Check out RedFin. Prices are absolutely ridiculous right now. Higher than 2006.
Bethesda, md $250K gets you a 2bed/2bath apartment.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5301-Westbard-Cir-Apt-2...
True dat, HH. My cousin dumped his IT job in SF and headed to Fuki radiation-free Houston where his $400k bought him a beautiful place, crime free, Master Planned Community with open spaces, clean air, parks, paygrounds (free of drug needles), excellent hospitals, and so on.
I <3 Houston
That Oakland one is 25 years old and in the middle of Chinatown.
Some may like the latter, but don't try to find an affordable parking spot (and don't even dream of a free one in less than 10 min walking distance).
Yah right its callled BULL FUCKING SHIT!!!!!
Anyone else feel like they are loosing their minds?????
Dont fight it!
I recall many an episode where Jack Bauer would say that very thing right before someone passed out from his choke hold.
Gotta keep everyone guessing on the paper taper.
Exactly. What I'm seeing are massively discounted Brand New Houses since builders are desperate to dump a handful at end of year, esp inventory houses. My friend grabbed one in the city he was transferred to 22% below the listing price last Spring. Areas with solid job growth (very few) are seeing activity but most other areas are sinking with dozens of For Sale signs and empty boxes esp on the used homes.
December is supposed to be the best time to buy but you still need a huge discount to protect you when this Housing Buble Bursts. You'll lose less if you need to sell during the next downturn.
If you didn't buy the "market" yesterday, you missed your chance to BTFD.
You gotta be fast around here, if you want to make some monex in this market.
it went left , right, up and down all at the same time, like a cheap hooker
Allowing government the luxury of 'manipulating' 2 months of data in their goal-seeking is unacceptable!
From now on......all Monthly statistics will be released every 3 months until the World, Markets and Reality meet in the deserved Singularity of UTOPIA!
Fucking seasonally adjusted bullshit. Let me guess, if you looked at a new home it counted as buying it.
You know when you go to check out a house and they ask you to sign in. What the fuck do you think that was for!
I've done my part; I put ten thousand health insurance policies in my basket.
Who exactly is buying these homes?????
Its Boris,,,, He needs new spots for his Traveling Russian Brothels....I for one wish him luck!
"Investors" waiting for the next Big Pump.
Is anyone else concerned that there appears to be a lot of temporal noise in data that should be trending more smoothly together in the last few months related to housing: sales, mortgage applications, etc? I'm loosing faith in the data.
nice work gaoptimize. A confused MDB. That is new. Keep it coming.
I submit the data has become so corrupted as to be completely useless. These gyrations are simply unreal.
Distortions covering up for distortions and lies covering up for the lies on top of the other lies. They can barely keep their lies straight anymore. We are using China bureau numbers.
unreal, and i might add, part of the new normal.
It's pure BS, the revisions will drop October numbers like a rock. Somebody (or everyone in gov) is smoking crack
Real estate is still a rip-off in my neck of the woods...
Prices up a jillion percent here in silicon valley. It will come crumbling down and send people back to reality. 800K homes where people make 100K average lol.
Downsizing?
1980 was a housing bubble peak... just sayin'
Yep. And how many people living in the country back then?
If things are so rosy, how come the hedge funds that bought billions worth of s/f foreclosures, are now exiting the business?
Inconsistent data is usually wrong.
How will it look if the data is being actively managed?
Or it points to something else going on to account for the inconsistencies. Is this a case of the rich and institutions paying cash for homes while everybody else is left to rot? Or is this a case of the data being manipulated? Or how about some of both? It is very difficult to know what is actually going on because we know that our government does manipulate the data and we know that the market is very distorted, and it is very hard to tell what is a result of what when we see "facts" and figures.
Regardless, whether the figures are accurate or not, it's all one big lie. Even if the figures are accurate, the system is rigged.
One of the months of revision was 10%. This one may be another such.
They party is over, send in the clowns to wipe the tears of the soon to be fallen.
Absolute and total BULLSHIT !
sell-in Yellen......In Fiat we trust.
And just to think, just this morning I promised myself to give up drinking methylated spirits, crack cocaine and sniffing glue.
'Darling, could you pass me the cold turps please'.
??
$250k in the DC area gets you a roach infested townhome in an illegal alien/section 8 neighborhood. I should know since I just sold one. No fucking way we ever buy a house in this area again unless or until prices here crash 50% or more and I don't see that happening. Renter for life unless we move out of the DC area and good luck finding a job anywhere else.
In Maryland, I know the deal. Hey, if you're looking for less there's always Prince George's county or Baltimore!
I just up-voted every comment that the serial down-voter hit...
all in time for the obama to shout his victory cheeer to the cluless sheeple
More of trying to make people feel better about being screwed and their wealth being transferred to the 1%.
For the past month mortgage originators being layed off by the thousands!
Check:
dailyjobcuts.com
Maybe an arb play here where the builders are selling direct to the hedge funds who buy their stock. All with cheap,easy Bennybucks.
Bullshit and bass ackwards. Let it all burn.
Janet Yellen in Nazi lether gear will spook the markets. Wake them up a bit.