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Initial Claims Tumble To 298K As BLS Warns Of "Holiday Volatility"

Tyler Durden's picture


If yesterday's "great" news in the form of a 200K+ ADP, which sent the market sliding, was offset by the "ugly" news of the Service ISM which sent stocks soaring, today there are only "good cops" - first it was the revised Q3 GDP number print far above most expectations, purely on the back of inventory accumulation which however will now detract materially from Q4 growth, and at the same time, feeding the taper fire, the DOL announced that claims for the week ended November 30, which tumbled to 298,000 a 23K drop from a last week's upward revised 321K, the best print since September 2013, and the biggest beat of expectations of 320K since also September 2013, which was when the DOL started upgrading various computer systems making all data unreliable.

Continuing claims also declined by 21K to 2,744K, below expectations of 2800K and down from a revised 2765K.

And while futures assume the number immediately means the probability of a December taper surges, the DOL quietly added that it is "not unusual for claims to be volatile in holidays."

In other words, the random number generator was working overtime and expect next week's claims print to be well in the mid-300s.


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Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:16 | 4217348 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Fewer people working, fewer people to lay off.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:20 | 4217363 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

welcome... to... Mc... donalds.... can... I... take.... your.... order?....

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:45 | 4217430 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

 "Holiday Volatility"  I thought they were referring to Black Friday shoppers having a 'Wampede' at the local Wally World...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:17 | 4217354 Sudden Debt
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Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:20 | 4217364 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Expanded inventories means there is a need for more warehouse space to hold all of it.  Go long warehousespace.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:24 | 4217382 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I wanted to sell Obama's EGO but I can't find a warehouse big enough to store it. So if you stumble onto something really... really big, you just give me a sign okay?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:45 | 4217630 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Railex has just built 1,000,000 sqft building with climate control. Big enough?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:22 | 4217367 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dog bless us...everyone!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 10:55 | 4217461 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Being as there really is no market, no truth, reality has been temporarily hijacked and all...................I'm still thinking that the idea of a December taper is absurd to the extreme. These sociopaths won't want to dump the 'market' leading into 'the holidays'. Dear Leader is trying to run a new game pickybacking of his new found friend the Pope, he needs good news all around to pull it off.

If a 'taper' occurs it likely won't be untill Feb/Mar.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:10 | 4217508 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If they announce a taper, it will only be because they are backdooring the whole QE program.  They need to move deeper into state, local, and city debt to stop the pension seizure holocaust now.  They can't afford city worker strikes and down services.  if they want collectivism to maintain power, they have to pay for it. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:40 | 4217614 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The dog is catching its tail and when it bites it is going to hurt.

Pension funds, public and private, need unnatural returns from the market to appear sustainable or the system collapses, yet the msm and the potus are starting to point out the fact that everyone is struggling while the market is going hyperbolic and the banksters are getting richer.  The only way to reign in the banksters is to taper but then taper crashes the market ergo crashing the pension funds ergo bankrupting cities.

I like the view from the bleachers.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:57 | 4217673 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And the problem for pensions is now beyond returns.  They need to worry about State and City government seizure.  The Fed needs to start feeding the smaller fish.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:00 | 4217490 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

There is no way they are going to admit what Obamacare is doing to the economy before Christmas.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:15 | 4217533 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Unadjusted claims down 187K year over year!  Yowsa!

Warning: this data has a large margin of error.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 11:31 | 4217587 orangegeek
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