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Kyle Bass Warns When "Everyone Is 'Beggaring Thy Neighbor'... There Will Be Consequences"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

"There are going to be consequences to central bank balance sheet expansion all over the world," Kyle Bass tells Steven Drobny in his new book, The New House of Money, adding "It’s a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, but everyone is beggaring thy neighbor." The Texan remains concerned at QE's effects on wealth inequality and worries that "at some point this is going to ignite and set cost pressures off." While Gold-in-JPY is his recommended trade for non-clients, his hugely convex trades on Japan's eventual collapse remain as he explains the endgame for his thesis, "won't buy back until JPY is at 350," and fears "the logical conclusion is war."

Excerpted from Steven Drobny's The New House Of Money,

Drobny: You’re on the tape saying that dollar/yen is going to 200.

Bass: If I’m right, it will go much further than that. I don’t think it will hit 500, but in crises, currencies swing too far. They can start discounting 15% or 20% rates out ad infinitum because they are in a full bond crisis. But once they flush the debt and have a reset, you’re not going to have 20% rates ad infinitum. We’ve committed more capital to the currency market, but all of the convexity is in the bond market.

Drobny: Recently we’ve seen the yen move your way and everyone is getting excited about “The Japan Trade” – is this the big move you’ve been looking for?

Bass: No, this is just the beginning. It’s not the real move. The real move happens when it runs away from the authorities and they lose control.

Drobny: At what point do you go the other way and buy Japan?

Bass: When the yen is 350 and they’ve wiped out their debts.

Drobny: Let’s play out your Japan scenario. If the yen goes to 350 and Japanese government bond yields go to 20% and they can no longer finance themselves such that it becomes a financial disaster, what are the implications for the rest of the world?

Bass: Well, policymakers have been changing the rules, which is challenging for macro hedge funds. But that’s the beauty of this situation.

Drobny: What if they decide to just knock a few zeros off the debt?

Bass: In the end, they may be forced to do so.

Drobny: What if they bought the whole debt stock at 1% yield?

Bass: That’s the St. Louis Fed’s school of thought, which contends that countries that have their own central banks can print their own currency and will never fall. For the world’s sake, I wish that were true. For the last 2000 years, it hasn’t been true, and I don’t believe it to be true. If it is true, I’ll lose 150 basis points a year and move on. Our core portfolio will be fine. Still, if it were true, then why even have fiscal policy? We don’t need a fiscal policy if that’s the case – we could just spend the money however we want. Policymakers don’t believe there are consequences to their actions, but the consequences will come. Economic gravity will actually set in.

Drobny: But you don’t suffer the consequences if you are out of office. That’s the next person’s problem.

Bass: The point is that no one will make those difficult decisions unless they’re forced to make them. The politics of all these situations tell me how this is going to play out, and that’s through massive central bank balance sheet expansion and capital controls.

The Fed recently wrote a paper that actually endorsed capital controls if done concurrently with other nations. It’s hard for me to fathom that capital controls can ever be a great idea, but this is what you’re going to see.

We are in a period that will be characterized by enormous cross-border capital flows. How will it play out? Let’s assume that I’m right about Japan. What happens then? Nominal interest rates in the US and Germany go negative. The Pavlovian response is to fly to perceived safety; this is why we’re not betting against US rates. In fact, we’re receiving rates in Europe and Australia right now because some sort of stagflation will play out first, before you start to see the real problems in Japan. If you look at history and try to understand what has created despotic rulers and wiped out populations financially in the past, and what happens next, the logical conclusion is war.

Drobny: Who is the war going to be between?

Bass: I’m not exactly sure, but it seems to me that the aggressor in Asia is China and they don’t get along with Japan.

Post-World War II, Japan has been constitutionally limited, such that they cannot declare war. But current Prime Minister Abe is talking about rewriting the constitution so that they can actually declare war again. That’s not stabilizing for the region. Nationalism is rearing its head as we speak.

A third of the population in Japan is over the age of 60, and a quarter is over the age of 65. To put this into context, in the broader developed world only about 8% of the population is over 65. At a point when these people need the money the most, they could lose 30-40% of their savings, maybe more in terms of purchasing power. The social repercussions bother us more than the financial repercussions because the social fabric of Japan will either be stretched or most likely torn, and we don’t know what’s going to happen next.

Drobny: Besides Japan, what bothers you?

Bass: There are going to be consequences to central bank balance sheet expansion all over the world. Look at currency cross rates. If all central banks are expanding at the same rate, the cross rates aren’t moving, but your purchasing power, in terms of goods and services in the country where you live, is diminishing. You’re not focused on real returns, you’re preoccupied with the cross rates. It’s a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, but everyone is beggaring thy neighbor.

I really worry about the true cost of goods and services, but people are preoccupied by the dollar/euro exchange rate to gauge the relative strength of the European economy. You see this preconditioned response and even macro players say things like, “Oh, buy the Nikkei at week end.” They’re picking up a dime in front of a bulldozer. Japanese industry has been hollowed out. The exchange rate may stop the decline for a certain period of time but it’s a secular decline. The people that own Japanese equities right now are tourists. But this creates opportunities in the marketplace.

Bass On inflation,

When you look at what’s going on from an inflation perspective, central banks have printed about $10 trillion dollars since the beginning of the crisis. The first $4-5 trillion went into re-equitizing heavily leveraged structures and bringing down rates. The second $4-5 trillion is making its way into the monetary base, and even though the multiplier is not working, at some point this is going to ignite and set cost pressures off. Again, it won’t be demand-pull, which is technically a good kind of inflation. Rather, it would result from too much money in the system.

Bass On QE's effects on wealth inequality,

It will show up in food in the early stages. Global QE is filtering its way into asset prices. Those closest to the proverbial spigot are enjoying the printing the most with most in the middle and lower class not feeling the love at all. All you have to do is look at the gap between median income and mean income growing ever wider. This means the rich are getting richer while the rest stay stagnant or even decline.

Drobny: If you could do only one trade for the next ten years - non-risk-managed...

Bass: Actually, the answer to this one is easy – I would buy gold in yen.

 

 


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Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:37 | Link to Comment nuclearsquid
nuclearsquid's picture

luh-loh

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

"....There Will Be Consequences"

Sooooo, go long Herbalife?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Life of Illusion
Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

If Bass is saying his #1 10yr trade is to buy gold in Yen, then he has tremendous faith in the system, because he is buying paper.

Contradicts his feduciary recomendation to U of T?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Life of Illusion
Life of Illusion's picture

 

WAR,,he should of purchased 7011 back in 2012.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO%3A7011&ei=PuugUujTOsTzqwH_Ww#

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Freudian slip.

Meant to say buggering their neighbor.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Not all agree with Kyle.

Watch Kyle Bass go head-to-head with John Mauldin, Mohamed El-Erian, David Rosenberg, Barry Ritholtz and John Hussman.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/08/john-mauldin-mohamed-el-erian-davi...

 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Seriously, what the fuck would Kyle Bass know? It's not just that he's been consistently wrong since 2008, it's that he has consistently presented his arguments as inescapable mathematical certitudes.

This form of presentation is appealing because it lulls readers and viewers into thinking that somewhere behind the curtain he has performed mathematical proofs and that the path we are on is inexorable. Coupled with he fact that Bass is a seriously well-spoken, charming motherfucker, his fame clearly outperformed his returns.

But ... He's been wrong. Not just a little wrong, but major-fuck-up wrong. His bets against JPY (a legendary widow maker trade) turned out to be ...well.. widow-makerish.

So now he's bullish?

A man can change his mind right?

Well. No. Not quite. ... And by the way fuck you, Kyle.

It's not that you just presented a thesis and now you're amending your thesis. It's the *way* you presented your thesis as (in the words of John Maclaughlin), "metaphysical certitude". Everyone else was clueless and you were right. Right?

Sorry but you own that shit Kyle. And never again will your theses carry quite the same weight.

You can only play the "I'm smarter than everyone else in the room, and I'm going to make you all look like buffoons" card once. ...Because the second time around, you're the buffoon.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:10 | Link to Comment anonymephistopheles
anonymephistopheles's picture

I think that you are talking about short JGB, short JPY has done pretty well over the past year.

His view (and I agree) is that you can keep JGB high (through CB JGB purchases) or JPY high, but due to the massive imbalances, one of them is going to give.  The primary focus of Abenomics is pretty much that JPY has gotta go.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 04:33 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Kyle Bass is now bulish GM as per bloomberg interview. Just like Hugh Hendry changed his view. I wonder if they get rewarded by TPTB to turn bulish in exchange of the exit signal ahead of the heard.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 07:36 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

GM.....the car company?

 

Are we all gonna get free Obama cars now?

Might as well start passing them out....they're just sitting there idle in the parking lots now.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Centuries from now, when archaeologists study the fall of our civilization, they will note that it was capped by a single, distinct, black layer--of compressed T-Bills.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 02:11 | Link to Comment secretargentman
secretargentman's picture

That or shoes.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment explosivo
explosivo's picture

That's what I thought. Gold is gold. Once you have it you can sell it for whatever fiat currency you want including Yen. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

It's confusingly worded.

I think he means long gold/short yen as a pair trade.  It isn't a hedge, but pair trades are popular among the hedgies, which is why they are so dangerous.  Just add leverage and all hell can break loose.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Martel
Martel's picture

I think he means long gold/short yen as a pair trade.

Yes, this was evident. Borrow JPY, invest it in gold. Not many common people manage this with reasonable costs. So, they do it via some broker. They end up paying all kinds of rolling costs for their short JPY position, and owning paper gold.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Yep, that's why in one of his presentations he said there's no way for the small investor to easily capitalize on this. I believe the minimum investment with his Hayman Capital is $5 million.  As usual, only the rich get richer from the policies of their central banks and the eventual consequences.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 04:37 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

You can sell a few Yen contracts with $15k margin and buy GLD as a poor man's trade. But you are not going to become rich quick or slow. 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 07:11 | Link to Comment Martel
Martel's picture

It would work for somebody living in Japan. Borrow from your bank, invest in physical gold. That gold part would have to be kept secret.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:58 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Isn't this exactly what the Chinese have been doing for awhile?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

There are many versions of the carry trade.  Have been for decades.  Just borrow for almost nothing in yen, and play momentum, buy whatever is going up.  It hasn't always worked out that well.

China is such an elephant these days, that any mistake there creates a safe haven run to Japan.  WB7 has a great feel for Asia.  Orly is fearless trading this stuff.  I prefer to trade corn and beans and watch the blinking lights.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:59 | Link to Comment Frozen
Frozen's picture

Three months ago I put all my money into a full-fledged contract SCUBA outfit.  Mainly we specialize in the area of underwater loss and metals recovery.  Sad that boating accidents are trending up, but we work where needed.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

bass will tell you he needs to dance while the music is playing. he is a dance instructor. or perhaps a choreographer. he gets paid based on his artistic performance. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Yup.  The alternative for anyone running a fund is a pink AR and lectures on the evils of the penis.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment ClassicalLib17
ClassicalLib17's picture

I wonder what she looks like naked without that pink AR in her grip? 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:42 | Link to Comment TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

I've wondered that too, followed quickly by which of us would end up pregnant.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

When a financial titan says buy gold in yen, I think what he means is short (or borrow) yen and use the proceeds to buy gold.  It doesn't necessarily mean buying paper gold.

N.B. Bass also took a stake in channel stuffer supereme (per ZH) General Motors, and touted it as a great value, according to the MSM.  ZH brushed by that one.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:58 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If so it would be insane.

Yen 350 to the dollar DESTROYS GM.  How could they sell any cars when a Camry is $6000?

As for war, come on.  China and Japan both survive on imported oil.  No one would bomb either's cities.  Why bother?  Just blow up one tanker enroute Shanghai and one enroute Tokyo and the Lloyd's people would not let any others sail.  Both countries then starve in a week or so.

This is not the old normal, people.  This is the age of oil scarcity and never ever ever forget . . . it decides everything.

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Hughing
Hughing's picture

Absolutely, killing is out, poverty and hunger are in

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:11 | Link to Comment Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Well.... Poverty, hunger (and more importantly to the neck nervous politicians) civil insurrection.

Tptb won't go quietly.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:04 | Link to Comment formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

Toyota (and every other industrial concern in Japan) has a lot more to worry about than competing with GM with Yen 350 to the dollar.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Not really.  He's basically saying buy gold and short the yen. The only part of that trade that is paper is the short yen, and you're selling the paper now in the hopes/expectation that it will be worth(less) later.

Gotta say, that Bass is off his game lately.  Didn't he get creamed jumping into JCP?  He just bought government motors.  So far, he's been wrong/early on the Yen trade.  Maybe it will work out eventually, his investment thesis is certainly sound and logical.  That said, shorting the yen and JGB's has been a widowmaker for two decades now.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:12 | Link to Comment saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

That said, shorting the yen and JGB's has been a widowmaker for two decades now.

Yep, that is indeed interesting. I assume the fiat-system continues working until there is a shortage on the supply side. So far we live in a world of complete abundance.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:03 | Link to Comment saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

@Pladizow: actually not. He has been saying that if you own Yen - i.e. you live and work in Japan - buy Gold.

Living outside the Yen currency area you should invest in his fonds ;-) - if you can spare at least 5 Mio. US$ equivalents - he says, because as a private investor you can't handle mathematics and paper as a pro can.

Found someone arguing against Kyle Bass: http://youtu.be/QWmOmt1zJ7Y

Starts arguing with arguments ad-hominem. Judge yourself.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Open letter to the Power Shares banner ad that I cannot dismiss and blocks my reading, scrolling, and takes me to your site when I inadvertently clik on it:

As Christ Himself is my witness, I will shit in your mouth should the opportunity arise.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment drdolittle
drdolittle's picture

I laughed out loud, thanks. Isn't it great how that shit is an advertisement and not a malicious virus?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Flashblock and Adblock are your friends.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Life on this site has become much easier after installing Ad Block. Thanks for that Heads Up. If I remember correctly it was you who published the link. Thanks again.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment fedupwhiteguy
fedupwhiteguy's picture

I use adblock with firefox. no problems, as you describe, anymore. :)

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

whatever Mr Bass.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:13 | Link to Comment augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

what happened to all the man - crushes on bass?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

How did Sally feel after she missed tricks or treats waiting for the Great Pumpkin?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:59 | Link to Comment Midas
Midas's picture

They say being early is the same thing as being wrong.  I'm sticking with him though, I absolutely cannot fathom how Japan gets out without a meltdown (sorry).  Considering debt, fierce competitors, demography, and a lack of resources, why be optimistic?   Matter of fact, do they have any positives?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment fedupwhiteguy
fedupwhiteguy's picture

Hell yeah!! Beautiful women with a penchant toward serving the males in the family.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

what a colossal mess when the only way out is WAR.  mankind will never fix this world without God in charge.  right now satan runs the show, and the results are quite evident.  but still people insist on the cleverness of man and how we are destined to be superman, but we can't even take care of our world or each other.  this is why we are eventually headed to our biblical fate.  God is just giving us a chance to see for ourselves.   He offered us a chance at redemption long ago and till this day through the sacrifice of His beloved son, Jesus.  and all people can do is laugh at the notion of a savior from sin.

party on, unbelievers.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:41 | Link to Comment N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

Well said ... ZHS

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

War or a totalitarian coup. The japanese are well underway on that last count. Or totalitarian coup and then war.
As Mycle Schneider (Nuclear expert of the U.N.) said after a visit "no one trusts anyone anymore in Japan"
So it's all or nothing now.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2013-12/05/c_132944619.htm

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:16 | Link to Comment slobbermut
slobbermut's picture

Amen Brother.....in time, they won't be laughig anymore.  Let not your heart be troubled, nor afraid - look up and rejoice for.....

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:12 | Link to Comment Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

look up and rejoice for.... the annunaki have arrived.

Looking for their gold.

amen has lost some of his gold, gone to cathay, it belongs to a different god now.

 

Stack On

Get a free ride to heaven. Yeh Haw

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:27 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

he gave us the choice at some tree. " believe all your parents tell you as truth, or go  and  find the truth yourselves. "  we chose scince.

 

edit,  well the devil said that, but he was made by god, so  indirectly theyre gods words

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 07:19 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

I like bass but i am confused..

how do you buy gold in yen?
If the yen collapse how do i unwind my trade originally in fiat ?

helppppp

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Jannn
Jannn's picture

Alex Stanczyk: Physical Supply Never Been Tighter http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/alex-stanczyk-physical-supply-never-been-tig...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Excellent article.  I have learned that we need to use our /sarc tags on here sometimes so:

 

sarc

It's amazing to see just how many crazy people have bought into, and are now contributing to these utterly made up stories about some kind of huge run on physical gold.  But all of this is put to rest with a quick glance at the comex pricing over the last 6 months which shows beyond any doubt that there is simply no investor interest in the yellow metal.

When the price of something collapses so utterly and all its proponents can resort to is wild stories about "our most valuable treasure being sold off for nothing at the behest of psychopaths" you know you are hearing the last gasping and bleating of completely defeated minds and broken portfilios.

 

So sad.  How do we help these people?

/sarc

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Wow, I think I'm being stalked by G&M commentors

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Jafo
Jafo's picture

And as the whales exit their positions in physical gold the price will drop.  Probably at a precipitous rate. Most of the gold will be bought by Asia and it won't be coming back.

This is exactly what is needed to find a bottom  Too bad nobody will have any when the next market rally in gold takes off.  It will probably be the big one.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

I'd buy gold with any paper currency.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:41 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Kyle Bass should stick to the world he understands : American capitalism and its decrepitude as he sees it since Subprime meltdown. Its the same story only worse since 2008. 

As for the rest of the world his assumptions are based on preconceived notions that do not take into account cultural constraints and irrational reactions whose outcomes, as for Japan, can be the contrary to what he expected; and which can result in geographical tsunamis which are beyond our ability to see around corners and predict. One thing is sure Pax Americana is where all tsunamis end as its portal to global Empire, port of last call. 

Its now a complex and increasingly fragile game as Pax Americana has broken the sacred tenets of capitalism and once confidence evaporates anything becomes possible as truth and lies are lodged at the same roach motel. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

So many words, so little said....

Bass does just fine without your endorsement, dude-  plus he actually says something when he speaks....

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

1° He incarnates this financialista world. He was a predator from day 1. He never made a product in his life. He just stole from others more predatory than himself. The age of financial predators.

2° He thought he could wage war on the back of Pax Americana fire power on the world like a financial conquistador, the guys who raped Greece and tried to rape Japan; pure financial predatory play, the NAME OF THE CANCER that eats the world today; like the spanish conquistadors of old; predators for God and Emperor. He is for MARKET and Dollar hegemony. That's what allowed him to play generalissimo of the Japan short; now he has shat his pants on that like Hendry. All predators; may they die like the Conqistadors of old.

So many words and nothing said? 

Do I make myself clear about Pax Americana scam plays, in destroying what it so proudly held as its greatest contribution to civilization: Free Markets and Democracy; now lying BOTH debased; with the likes of Conquistadors of KYle Bass predatory gut wrenching hubris, who will be eating humble pie, if there is any justice in this world.

Hows that for clarity? 

ANd, for your info the logical conclusion is not that there will be WORLD WAR, as Oppenhiemer's toy now makes that route VERBOTEN. So our wars will be financial and commercial and in this realm if democracy reigns it won't be survival of the fittest, and the most unethically unscrupulous like of OLD, but general good if people have their TRUE say; not the same focus...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

falak is projecting his anger of the failings of central planning on those who simply predict it will fail. one must wonder why it is ok for those who perpetuate the failing states of Japan or Venezuela et. al. to place the blame on speculators such as bass.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

One of my favorite things about Bass (and Fleckenstein and others) is that they come out and tell you they plan to make bank on the collapse of all of our standards of living and that if we don't like it we could get off our couches and do something and the only change would be they would make money instead on increased economic activity which is what they originally set out to do until they realized they couldnt, this sentence is long enought already I should stop.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

lol, I love this lack of respect for the chronology of the time line of this collapse.

1° Reaganomics at inception was not Central Planning, it was just the opposite. It got the ball rolling via deregulation to help PRIVATE ENTERPRISE; no holds barred.

2° Clinton's GL_ST revoke and Greenspan's ZIRP were not CP they were more deregulation of what Reagan Bush had already started.

3° GWB CHindia Play via WTO China admission was not CP it was more Private ENterprise gone Global to use labour arb bigtime.

4° THE 2008 meltdown was pure Private enterprise exuberance based on cheap money and P/E going beanstalk.

5° TARP was CP under GWB to stop private banking collapse by socialising debt; aka impoverishing the middle class.

6° QE /ZIRP and what has followed has been CP to serve Oligarchy aka Private Banks, Private Caymanista wealth by using FED to increase the debt of People and nation, to SAVE Private Oligarchy. And its getting worse every day...We are HERE now.

So tell me Central B what has CENTRAL PLANNING got to do with this Scam EXCEPT to SAVE PRIVATE BIG ENterprise.

Funny how when we REMEMBER the time line and chronology things become clear and CAuse and Effect are like foot prints in the sand, before the tide of disinformation and inuendo washes them out.

Kyle is a PURE product of that triple decade of no holds barred, winner take all, damn the consequences, let the people suffer, hubris; all for the glory of the PRIvate sector. And CP was their tool and stays their tool.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The problem is that Reaganomics NEVER HAPPENED. It was Central Planning that was behind the deregulation. They planned it...NOT Reagan.

 

A funny thing happened in March, 1981, two months after Reagan took office. Reagan took a bullet to the chest. Yes John Hinckley did that.

 

Who was John Hinckley's father? Did you know that John Hinckley was a Yale Student (influenced by Skull and Bones, George HW Bush's Alma Mater) and was in a DATING RELATIONSHIP with Jodie Foster? (It was a Canned Media story that portrayed Hinckley as a nut who was trying to impress an actress so far beneath him. That is the way that they wrote the story.) 

 

It is amazing what the media does not tell you. That is much more important than what the media does tell you.

 

Shortly thereafter all of those Economic Reformers in Reagan's Cabinet began submitting their Letters of Resignation as George HW Bush began running the White House...in 1981.

 

Years later, when Reagan was questioned about Iran-Contra and testified that he had no knowledge of it...HE WAS NOT LYING.

 

Reagan was just playing the greatest Lead Acting Role in his life. He was acting as the President. The truth is that George HW Bush was running the show.

 

Governments are figureheads and will be collapsed, crushed, by the Corportocracy as necessary.

 

And as for Oppenheimer's toy. Do not bet against it being used as the PSYCHOPATHS are like the "Dog in the Manger". If they cannot eat (because it is grain and not meat in a manger) then they will make certain that no other animal will. They will destroy everybody when threatened with their own destruction. They do not plan to die alone. So do not bet that Oppenheimer's Toys willnot be used.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 00:21 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

I love it when people think George HW Bush is some evil mastermind. People also say he was responsible for Kennedy's death. If he is such an evil mastermind and powerhog, why would he have lost his second election? ...nevermind, I know, I know, he lost on purpose so Clinton could come in and do X, Y, and Z. You are so far out in right field that I shouldn't even waste my energy.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 00:54 | Link to Comment Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I just published a chonology of events....coincidences.

 

George HW Bush actually says it so well in his biography on the reason that he lost his re-election bid. It is funny that you brought up Slick Willie Clinton. But that was NOT his reason. DO YOU READ?

 

Like ALL SOCIALISTS, as yourself, George HW Bush blamed his loss on H Ross Perot. Slick Willie Clinton only garnered 39% of the vote and if the vote had not been split through the ranks of the "so called Conservatives" then George HW Bush would have served a Second Term. He just refused to take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY for raising taxes that brought about the 1991 Recession. "Read my Lips. No new taxes." He was just another "Tax and Spend" President, without any Fiscal Constraint, a Fake Conservative.

So you are just another statist who believes in the fake Left-Right Paradigm? Give me a break. There was a Coup d'etat in 1981.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:37 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Yes I read. I read a lot, but I do not read faux history, illuminati voodoo fiction, or silly conspiracy spy-novels. I do not believe in Red Team, Blue Team, Green Team, or Yellow Team politics. Libertarians are as silly as Progressives, Liberals, Conservatives, and, like yourself, Cave Dwellers. Humans are an animal too smart to know how dumb they really are, living in the tiniest sliver of time where both the planet and the universe allow it to survive. I cherish the fraction of time I occupy, and want to know everything about it. But in the end I only care about myself, my family, my business, and the few people in this world whom I can help through volunteer efforts. You... you're beyond help.

(j/k Tall Tom, I like you but I thought my response was too good to just delete. Internet = bitching at strangers.)

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:39 | Link to Comment Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

And likely not the last coup d'etat of many before.

The crown has been winning back the colony over the last 237 years.

The crown will make the colony pay for its' transgressions.

Unless Americans use the power that was granted to them by their forefathers of independence,

Then, I'm afraid, all is lost. And very soon too.

 

Stack On

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 07:32 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

@Tall Tom  :

I knew of a banker, a personal acquaintance, who was very active in Saudi as he worked for a TBTF ME regional HQ. He accompanied Bush team to Riyadh after the incumbent president had lost the election to Clinton. He heard the departing President saying to his Arab Saudi hosts verbatim : I lost that election because I UNDERESTIMATED the Jewish lobby who didn't like my Saud-Oil policy...They massively supported Clinton thanks to his Media and Hollywood celebrity connections...'

Apparently his son retained that lesson in 2000...SO from the Horse's mouth, and father to son.

As for Reaganomics, it was the LABEL and I agree as I have always said in my posts here that Reagan was "Elmer GAntry" spreading the good word of "neoliberalism" (european connation of "liberal", aka neocon in US parlance) for the Oligarchy that Kissinger had so patiently built.

So if the label was Reaganomics the substance was Bushonmics...follow up to Kissinger/Nixonomics/BW revoke/Petrodollar spawn and followed by Bush's NWO outsourcing; Oligarchy Corpocracy now full blown and globalised.

We agree on substance, even tho' I don't buy your easy use of word "socialist"; it sounds too much like "commie baiting" of McCarthy years and that was pure unadulterated shit IMO. There was nothing socialist about the Bushes...they were TRUE AMERICAN ROYALS...top down oligarchs.

Socialism when sincere is bottom up; until it goes totalitarian which it inevitably does!

We need Montesquieu spirit of laws and checks and balances; always, in a true republic.

 

 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 08:14 | Link to Comment bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Read My Lips:  No New Taxes.  Then, GHWB raised taxes.  He was ridiculed into an unelectable state after reneging his pledge to not raise his base's taxes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MW44jsYi0g (Bush Sr himself)

 

http://millercenter.org/president/bush/key-events

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

If he is right and Japan blows up, do you think people will finally listen to him?  I'm doubtful.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:51 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

It will be very psycholigically important to people that NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN IT COMING, so thats how it will be seen.  

 

Any victory lappers who grab people by the back of the head and fucking MAKE them look at the truth will be told that Kyle Bass and those like him CAUSED the meltdown with their manipulative practices even though the regulators worked so very hard to stop them.

 

That said, Kyle seems like the sort of guy who can take care of himself, unlike the small-fry types with their $50K in gold bullion and cash.  They may want to keep the "I told ya so" remarks to a minimum when the day of reckoning arrives.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

something about history repeating itself and not learning from our past mistakes. im not a huge follower of the man, but ive always enjoyed martin armstrongs writings about ancient monetary history. i am not so sure about the accuracy of his predictions for which I am not vouching.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:04 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Im in that "not looking for heros, just information I can use" category.

 

So Armstrong is an interesting case because he is so shockingly arrogant that I almost can't take him.  That said, he was calling for a gold correction and promoting the idea that gold is no monetary panecea several years before all of this. 

 

More importantly he made some interesting arguments about the practical impossibility of hyperinflation in a reserve currency and it sure is interesting the US has not yet had its "imminent hyperinflation" event yet despite the multi-trillion dollar printing spree.

Of course the other side is that hyperinflation very much *is* possible for a regional currency and the USD might become that in a matter of a few more years at the rate things are going.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Agree with you about Armstrong's self ego stroking, its quite distasteful.

 

I think he might be right that hyperinflation in the dollar will not come until other major currencies fail (Euro, Yen etc).

 

I find his historical perspectives on financial histories of Rome, Greece, France, England, and cyclical relationship analysis interesting.  When you realize every problem we face has been seen before many times, and every solution we are doing has already been tried and has failed before, it helps you mentally plan for the future.  You get an idea of what is likely to happen, but no certainty of how or when.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:04 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  If he is right and Japan blows up

People have been sayin' Japan is blowing-up for quite awhile now.

What if it already did blow up and nobody actually noticed?

What if the US economy already blew up and nobody noticed?

What if "they" put a new economy in place world-wide and nobody noticed?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:01 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Fukushima has been blowing up for many months , only the dead fish have noticed... so far.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:00 | Link to Comment Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Well actually you are half correct as everything already blew up. But do not think that nobody has noticed. Everybody has noticed.

 

We have noticed the new normal in Oil Expenses everytime that we fill up the Gas Tank.

 

We have noticed the new normal in food prices everytime that we shop for our GMO Foods.

 

We have noriced the new normal in Taxation.

 

We have noticed the new normal in Housing Costs.

 

We have noticed the new normal in Employment Rates.

 

We have noticed the new normal in Health Insurance expenses.

 

We have noticed the centralization and growth in power of the Government.

 

We have noticed the loss of our personal liberties and freedoms.

 

Haven't the Socialists noriced that we are extremely pissed off...to the point of overthrowing it?

 

Of course they have. So it will be one bloody Civil War.

 

So the real question is...

 

Are you ready to DIE for what you believe? Far too many of us are willing to do just that.

 

Do you know how to make a Fragmentation Grenade? It is simple.

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=fba_1384397678

 

Who needs a gun?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:44 | Link to Comment Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

I'm ready to die for what I know, but I can do more good alive. 

If the system is crumbling let it crumble.  If you want to help it on its way check out of the system. 

less violence - more creativity.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Bass is crazy with all this Japan nonsense. everyone knows just stay safe and own GM?Herbalife.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Oh my!?

But Kyle's sermon certainly gets your complete and undivided attention.  Especially the part about the "logical conclusion being war"...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:51 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

How to crash the yen to achieve Abenomics... just start a war with China... or save Japan and the west... BAN IMPORTS FROM CHINA.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

Right. Dont forget to close the door to the world too. Ban imports from China actually will be a good thing. You will get the inflation helicoptor Ben wants and China will turn inward to develop its own consummer market.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

They'll crash and burn before that happens.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

As a non-trader, could someone well-versed parse out the "gold in yen" trade? Are there any 'swing for the fences' permutations worth considering?

Thanks.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

It's just a paper trade which will be rolled back and cancelled if your trading platform isn't crushed first.  Permutations include: owning gold in bitcoins, raising a family in Sim City, cryogenically freezing your soul or casting outrage on forums.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

Wonder what defrost setting that requires?  I don't have a Nuker with Kelvin settings.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:27 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You could tray FAZ and TZA, but don't play with what you can't lose.  That's a big knife to catch.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 16:51 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bass jumping into GM?  WWIII must be getting closer.  I can't think of any other reason Bass would make such a play.  Think about it, GM plants can be re-tooled for many applications folks.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

A think GM is part of a larger secular long strategy on ponzi stocks by Bass.

GM >>> channel stuffing

HLF >>> multi-level marketing

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

GM does business with Nova Scotia Bank.  I've already been told that Nova Scotia Bank is getting acquired next year. 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:52 | Link to Comment Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

After JPM forces a bullion default? Bank of Nova Scotia can't deliver gold to JPM in December 2013?

Silly Canadians. Sounds like bail in time to me.

 

Stack On

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

I'm long Horses and Swords. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:01 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

No guts no glory, dude.   Keep printin'!!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

Does he mean buggering?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

Wait a minute. Is is 'Beggaring Thy Neighbor', or 'Buggering Thy Neighbor'?

I need to get this right....

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  I need to get this right

Why limit yourself,  experment in life:  try both on the neighbor.  See what happens.

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

Good point; I may be trying to draw too fine a line on this.

 

Ok, I'm going to jump in fist, I mean feet, first.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:40 | Link to Comment SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

double post...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bass could be the BitCoin alchemist that is out there monkey-hammering bitcoin everytime it exceeds the price of gold.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment kurt
kurt's picture

There's something fishy about Bass. Smugo the Prettyboy.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment d_taco
d_taco's picture

Japan is the single biggest holder of foreign assets. Their taxes are far lower than does in Europe. They hold a stack of worthless treasuries. Imagine Bass is right, what will happen with these assets?
They start to repatriate this money; that is a run on the Bank called the US.
When markets start to crumble, we will see a rewind of the carry trade.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Douglasnew
Douglasnew's picture

Notice Bass is not all in on his Japan theory. He's got a "core portfolio" as the bulk of his money while the 150 basis points a year goes to the lottery call on Japan. One smart dude with a thesis that looks very sound, yet knows that government can change the rules on all of us at anytime. AND THEY WILL.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Why bother to make a huge bet about something you believe will happen, but you cannot be certain about *when*?  Also, considering the risk that the central planners love to change the rules on a whim (short selling bans in European Banks for example?) it doesn't make much sense to place a hail mary trade for a large portion of a porfolio for which he drains a management fee from.  The man is just very practical in his decision making.  Hell, he might even be right, make a lot on those 150 basis point trade hes placed as %, but lose more on his core investments in nominal terms during the immedite crisis itself (assuming some kind of japanese bond meltdown probably means a short term deflationary event where his core position would lose pretty handidly).  Undoubtedly, Bass is just planning on winning his core portfolio to general inflationary trends over the long run (based off of his many public statements).

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Douglasnew
Douglasnew's picture

Notice Bass is not all in on his Japan theory. He's got a "core portfolio" as the bulk of his money while the 150 basis points a year goes to the lottery call on Japan. One smart dude with a thesis that looks very sound, yet knows that government can change the rules on all of us at anytime. AND THEY WILL.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"AND THEY WILL." - hence, all the physical assets.  When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.  I'll only add that government's power is derived from the consent of the governed.  This has been a fundmental truth throughout history, admittedly it can get bloody before this is rediscovered.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

The logical conclusion is always war - my dad said it nearly every other week for 35 years of my life. Its not a logical conclusion though, its just an unfortunate conclusion. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Can't imagine listening someone being constantly wrong for 35 years...

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:30 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wrong?  LMFAO!!!!!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:21 | Link to Comment GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

So you've never heard about William Lloyd Garrison then? That glorious motherfucker was "wrong" for 40 years (i.e., his ideas didn't gain traction), but he was 100% right the whole time.

 

Also - now that you're awake a little... have you fucking looked at how many wars the US has been involved in during the last 35 years?

Put another way: how many out of the last 35 years has the US Death Machine not been undertaking 'kinetic operations' in some place outside the US border? (I'll restrict it to kinetics just to give you the benefit of the idiot: obviously occupying chunks of Germany and Japan is not 'war' as such, but it does wonders for the military budget).

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

The logical conclusion is always war - what can you expect from a cut throat ?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

If Japan is broke, has no oil and a third of their population is over 60, who is it that they are going to go to war with?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

I dunno but if I was a bingo caller I would promptly increase my life insurance coverage and call the local temp agency to see if the TSA had any recent layoffs... you know for increased security during the bingo halls busiest hours.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Maybe they will reprise "The Mouse that Roared" by attacking Pearl Harbor and hoping the US will rebuild them (again).  That script would not fly with China.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Herodotus
Herodotus's picture

Japan plans to institute a Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.  This will restore them to top dog status.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Phillycheesesteak
Phillycheesesteak's picture

If Japan is broke, has no oil and a third of their population is over 60, who is it that they are going to go to war with?

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:13 | Link to Comment cape_royds
cape_royds's picture

Japan has an aging demographic and a limited resource base, but that country still has considerable existing armed forces, plus nuclear breakout capacity.

In domestic politics, an external crisis can be used as a convenient excuse for the rapid and undisguised repression of the people's overall standard of living. Bearing this in mind, it's not hard to understand why some idiots among the Japanese political class would find a more "muscular" foreign policy attractive.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment rp1
rp1's picture

JGBS is flat as a pancake.  It is inevitably going to explode like in April but I'm not sure you can make money off it.  Last time it screwed over gold and bonds and lifted the Nikkei.  This time who knows but I'm sure it will be fun to watch.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Watch out for the kornhole!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

The first one of the US should live so long.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:49 | Link to Comment RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

The first one of the US should live so long.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Duc888
Duc888's picture

Human Centipede.

 

Roll with it.  Learn to love eating shit.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Duc888
Duc888's picture

"Core portfolio"

 

Rhymes with Corn-holio.

 

Nice.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:55 | Link to Comment El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

.... and Brown-holeyo

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

bass is right on japan. i don't agree with the why or how or what, though. japan has known for 20 years that their future is ultimately tied to china with the usa, hopefully kept in good grace. china knows this, also. when japan makes the leap onto the dragon's back(along with the rest of se asia and s pacific) they will have to recount their yen in yuan, the only logical course for japan.

the yen could go to 350 and there will be 100 yen ramen for everyone.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 03:08 | Link to Comment Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

ramen

 

Stack On

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

 

ya ya ya, blah blah blah, you know what I fear Kyle?  That Gold in JPY breaks down!!!  I'll say it, i've gone inssne!!!!

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

I think Bass has this trade wrong.  I think it could back fire.  I dont think the Y is EVER going to 350.  Japan's problem is debt - just like everywhere else only they won't monetize it - they will just default.  Its the American currency we ought to be worried about, IMO because there is SO much of it "out there" that as it comes home (which shitty currency eventually does), it will overwhelm the commodities markets, so this will crush the $USD by its own fat weight relative to everyone else.  I like him, but this trade won't go as he thinks it will, in my opinion, because if it were, it would have already happened - we would have seen catalysts but instead JPY is behaving as if its about to appreciate, not depreciate.  I think the trade to have made will end up looking a lot different than what he thinks.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:21 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

he is implying that the dollar will spike on a yen default. the real pair is yen/yuan. they already have a currency swap agreement and are each others' biggest trade partner. japan will use the convertibilty of the yuan to yen and dollars to cushion the quadrillion yen rollout and crack 200yen/dollar but the dollar may be caput already so all bets are off.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

thats exactly that i'm talking about bes!  you said it better.  for me - there's too many $USD out there that increasingly people are demanding less and less of.  This cant be ignored, Bass's trade included. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment cape_royds
cape_royds's picture

1. Excuse me, Reagan used a lot of CP. Dramatic rise of public deficits (i.e. future taxes or inflation) to enable centrally directed allocation of capital towards armaments.

2. Greenspan ZIRP was deliberate CP decision to overstimulate housing sector, in conjunction with CP'ed preferential tax treatment of residential housing. That ZIRP also massively enabled a "guns and butter" policy of simultaneous aggressive war and tax cuts.

3. Clinton was luckier in his circumstances than his predecessors and successors. But his policies (NAFTA, WTO) could even only seem to work with frequent centrally directed monetary policy rescue missions. History will see the 1990's as the biggest blown opportunity of all time. I call the 1990's the Decade of Dumb Ideas. It was a chance to clear up most of the mess caused by the 20th century, but instead Clinton set up the catastrophe of the 21st.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

I believe you're right, it was a missed opportunity to get the government under control.

The 50s -2006 was just a golden time to be alive and the period from 2008................until ? will probably be the worst.

 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Paper gold in yen, convert to dollars/yuans/euro's and buy physical? I would have to go through several fire exits with piled up dead bodies in front of it. Don't get it. It's an advise for mrs. Watanabe ? Japan has got a front seat in the train wrack.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:26 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I marvel at people focussing on this or that trade. Bass can afford to mull that shit over. Not saying he above all of this, just saying. Ordinary people have to do things differently.

Even Kyle doesn't know who is going to light the fuse, which I believe resides in SE Asia. But he has enough insulation to cover his, and those he loves, asses. You and me, not so much.

Funny - Yen to buy gold. This is precisely what the Chinese have been doing with the yuan tyhe past five years.

Sheep.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:37 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Problem with picturing Yen$ at 350 is that it loses sight of what $-everything else will be.  

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 19:45 | Link to Comment bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

i don't understand how inflation and enormous wealth inequality can exist together, print another 10 trillion and it will go to the same winners ok you pm loving zhers don't understand so i'll explain it another way the only people seeing inflation are the winners, want proof? yesterday a winner paid about 50 million dollars for a norman rockwell painting 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:44 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

What you are missing, because not even ZH mentions this very often, is that the predators-that-be and powerful rich keep manipulating gold and silver downward for these reasons:

#1:  They punish their enemies (liberty and free-market advocates).

#2:  The predators are loading up on gold quietly but BIG TIME.

#3:  Once most of their enemies give up and sell their gold.

POP GOES THE GOLD PRICES
POP GOES THE SILVER PRICES

And as always, only the most insanely persistent PM bugs still have their gold and silver.  And as always, the predators-that-be and rich bastards end up with the gold, and thus make the rules for the next major leg down into even deeper darkness on planet earth.

And yes, before the big pop, the predators-that-be will probably confiscate all gold that isn't burried deep in the extreme boonies of some foreign land.  And better make sure you are in the extreme boonies of some foreign land too, because quite possibly they won't take "no, i don't have it anymore" as an answer, and will torture you until you relent or die, whichever comes first.

In other words, most of their spending isn't for inflated assets.

-----

Oh, one related thought I don't have anywhere better to vent...

The predators-that-be have been intent upon breaking the 12-year runup in gold.  Their number one priority has been to make absolutely certain that gold has a big fat down year in 2013.

Well, they will succeed, and for the rest of December, they will likely be willing to invest a lot of effort and resources to keep the price as low as possible (and simultaneously to buy up the physical for themselves, as well as futures contracts to buy up more next year).

But after 2013 ends... well... they've done what they set out to do.  They've "broken the back" of gold and silver... at least in their eyes, and in the eyes of a whole slew of other folks too (not to mention the precious miners, whose stock has fallen as fast in 2013 as the rest of the market has risen).

While I can't be certain, the chances their focus on pushing gold down will weaken considerably is fairly high in my opinion.  For those who believe this, load up now.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:21 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

So load up on something I'll get tortured and killed over? I love your posts but I don't see them confiscating. If they do, we will have bigger problems than the local liberty lover's stack.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:33 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

You may just have to decide. The hardest choice will not be about material things. 

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 23:51 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Anything they have not already confiscated, they are more-or-less openly planning to confiscate now.  Note for example: bail-ins, one-time "wealth tax", and oh, by the way, they already confiscated gold before, so there is a precident AND that order is probably still on the books (not that it was ever constitutional).

Why would they confiscate everything except the asset favored by their most dedicated enemies?  Yeah, that makes sense.  NOT.

But you CAN hide your precious metals or other durable goods, especially if you hide them in the extreme boonies of some foreign land.  Furthermore, after you have done so, be sure to make a well documented trip (charged on your own credit cards) to Las Vegas or Macau... where you... sniff, sniff... gambled away everything, including your gold.  You just got bit by the bug, had to win back what you lost, and ended up... sniff, sniff... losing everything.  We are so sorry for you.  Really.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:29 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Tell them to come on down. We'll tell them where everythng is. 

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 20:21 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Bass used to be a lot more critical of US debt and fiscal policy.  Now not much about the US.  He must have gotten the "word" and a welcome to the exclusive club.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:13 | Link to Comment GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

You're over-thinking it, FijiSailor: Bass isn't in the Gerald Celente/Max Keiser mould: he doesn't pound the table on every investment idea, non-stop. Keiser and Celente are always hammering the last investment theme.

To some extent Bass is not even in the Marc Faber mold: Faber's instincts and analysis are terrific, but he's a 'single play' kind of guy... short "this", long "that", where "this" is not a hedge over "that".

From what I've read and seen of Bass, he will focus on some interesting "read of the green": like when he made clear - for the first time that I ever saw it mentioned - what that it would actually be a disaster if the BoJ managed to generate inflation in Japan, because their public finances would be screwed.

And of course once you hear that, you can readily apply that same logic to the US (to the extent it applies, and it does).

Ditto his views on Italian debt and Greek CDS (nobody talks about those anymore - they're so 2012): he was among the first people to point out that the problem was not the effect on .gov financing currently, but on rollovers, because the actual effective interest rate payable by .gov.it and .gov.gr were in the 2-3% range... all financed short-duration.

Again... apply that same logic to the US .gov balance sheet. 

 

Autrement dit: Bass' media schtick involves trying to show viewers/readers that he's able to winkle out little thought-gems that are implied in relationships between financial instruments and demographics... rather than telling folks the same shit everyone else is spouting. I think that's a terrific way to promote himself.

That said, since Bass got a profile he's lost a load of weight, stuck his head in a vat of Just for Men, dyed his skin that radioactive orange that was made popular by Jersey Shore, and got a better tailor (and his teeth are whiter maybe).

I'll forgive a man vanity (although if I ever do a 'combover' or dye my hair, The Lovely has my permission to euthanise me)... but I do have misgivings about anyone who evinces a desire to go to the Parasites' Feast at Davos, or have dinner with vermin like Greenspan, TheBenBernank or Summers.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 06:28 | Link to Comment fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

You're funny.  After all that bullshit I'm the one who's over thinking.

Thu, 12/05/2013 - 20:21 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
Thu, 12/05/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"If you want your 500 yen-to-$1, you can have your 500 yen-to-$1."

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 01:36 | Link to Comment AngelEyes00
AngelEyes00's picture

Actually he's saying buy physical gold any way you can, but then sell it for Yen, because then you'll have such a huge pile of cash!

Just having some fun with a topic I have no idea about.  In fact reading a million articles and listening to a billion experts, I can't tell if we're going to have deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, stagflation, reflation, war, burst bubbles, double QE, triple QE, taper, bonds up, bonds down, currency wars, a new world currency, debt jubilee, debt ballooning, entitlements reduced or eliminated or increased. 

I admit to doing nothing, but instead just waiting to see what actually happens.  I'm not buying caches of food, water, guns, ammo, fall out shelters, stocks, bonds, gold, silver coins, bullet proof vests, water purifyers or anything else that will complicate my life. 

 

 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:12 | Link to Comment J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

It still all comes down to the laws of nature, boys.  They are dinkering with the divine.  Just keep cool with all of this.  Trust your instincts.  What is money?  What is of real worth?   This is all coming to a head in the near future.  Those with sane minds will survive.  Those who panic will suffer.  Let it all play out.  What is important is that there be honest human beings - "untouchables" if you will - who we entrust to create an honest system of monetary governance when all i ssaid and done.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:25 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Maybe a little panic is good, "He who panics first panics best". But you are correct. Gotta know the difference. Mentally prepared is the thing.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 02:27 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Yeah - Untouchables. I like it.

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