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Charting Today's 30K "Make Or Break" Payroll Difference In "Seasonally Adjusted" Context

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's nonfarm payroll number critical "make or break" margin, as estimated earlier by Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, is a tiny 30K: "anything above +200k (net of revisions) will lead to a further dip in risk as taper fears intensify and anything less than say +170k will probably see a decent relief rally after a tricky week for markets." Goldilocks of course will be the expected 185K but what economists forecast rarely if every happens. So it is likely that what the BLS reports will either be good for the economy and horrible for market, or vice versa. So we decided to put this 30K in context. The charts below show both the average and the annual seasonal adjustment between the unadjusted and the final, adjusted nonfarm payroll print. In the past decade, the average November seasonal adjustment is the highest of all months, amounting to 1.165 million jobs! In other words, the 30K critical difference will fit nearly 40 times in just what the BLS' Arima X 13 smoothing simulator adjusts the actual print by in order to get what it believes is the appropriate trendline, ignoring entirely that in the New Normal all historical seasonal adjustments are no longer applicable.

And this is the kind of data dependent "data" that Bernanke will be looking at in a week to decide whether or not to begin reducing the monthly amount of flow?

 

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Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:18 | 4220923 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Funny how this stuff (if it's less than X, markets will rise on more QE; if it's more than X, markets will dip on Taper concerns) is now mainstream and discussed openly, as if that's just how it should be.  Good economic news is bad news for the markets and vice-versa and of course there's nothing wrong with that.  

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:26 | 4220932 GetZeeGold
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I would have gone with ironic.....but funny works too.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:34 | 4220957 SoilMyselfRotten
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Gold goes from +$9 to -$10 in about 3 minutes, must be a supply and demand problem<cough>

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:19 | 4220925 Mad Muppet
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Lies, damned lies.............and then we have statistics.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:29 | 4220947 Jumbotron
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Hey.....calling the stats lies insults the word lie.

Let's call it what it REALLY is.......propaganda.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:24 | 4220926 MFLTucson
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Don't believe anything from the BLS, they are a group of liars as proven by their manipulation of the numbers in the 2012 election. 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:20 | 4220930 Mad Muppet
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C'mon now, MFL, don't sugar-coat it. Tell us how you really feel.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:24 | 4220935 MFLTucson
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How can a thinking person feel any differnt.  This has become a joke!  Dow 16000 on printed money and misleading goverment reports?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:22 | 4220934 Dan The Man
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In the past decade, the average November seasonal adjustment is the highest of all months, amounting to 1.165 million jobs! In other words, the 30K critical difference will fit nearly 40 times in just what the BLS' Arima X 13 smoothing simulator adjusts the actual print by in order to get what it believes is the appropriate trendline, ignoring entirely that in the New Normal all historical seasonal adjustments are no longer applicable.

 

One sentence....70 words.   You guys do this a lot!   Please knock it off.   

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:24 | 4220937 Dan The Man
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Lol.  Where's the verb !!!

 

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 10:27 | 4221149 Looney
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... One sentence....70 words. You guys do this a lot! Please knock it off.

What a fucking douchebag! (Is this sentence short enough for you?)

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 10:20 | 4221125 RaceToTheBottom
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53 words, but who is counting?  Oh I did.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:26 | 4220936 WarPony
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Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:25 | 4220940 GetZeeGold
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Do you take gold?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:27 | 4220939 Dr. Engali
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The number will come in at whichever level the bureau of BS wants it to come in at, and the fed will move the goal posts wherever they want to prevent tapering.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:30 | 4220948 derek_vineyard
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but O wants it to be good for him

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:26 | 4220942 Doubleguns
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 Obviously they do not want to have to taper and they do not want the market to form a bubble. ROTFLMAO. BLS is just the long version for BS.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:30 | 4220946 Pig Circus
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I just can't believe I and many others are even watching as we know the number is whatever the Fu*k the want it to be. High Nymber makes Obozo look good as market tanks. Bad number make Obozo look bad as market cream. Total Fing farce.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:30 | 4220950 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Have the privaliged few got their early data yet?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:34 | 4220953 Momauguin Joe
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Does a bear shit in the woods?

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:44 | 4221001 adr
adr's picture

The only context you need anymore is that the world has lost its damn fucking mind. Everything has become a sick joke.

Anyone else feel that way?

A rational person can't explain 2013. It really is the year the world went full retard. I've never wanted to find some deserted island more than I do right now.

Oh my god it snowed, jack nat gas 20% in a week so it will cost me $30 more next month to hear my house. A whale farted in the golf, make my next fill up cost $5 more.

We have submarine launched drones now. Soon to be required driving monitors in your car. Carbon Motors is now making a precrime robot to monitor schools. Yes it has sensors to supposedly detect if a crime will happen. 

What was openly mocked as conspiracy as little as a year ago is now talked about as common business practice. It's good that the Fed is buying 75% of the new issuance of government debt they tell me.

Well if the job numbers are bad the market will rally? It doesn't really matter because the number is completely made up anyway. Just like the entire economy.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 09:57 | 4221039 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    The BLS must have hired the head of, 'The Dept. of Health And Human Services'... Never go full retard! These BLS #s should really piss off the Millenials.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 10:14 | 4221112 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Smoothing the fake data makes it better...

Two Wrongs make a Wright

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