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Just Two Charts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

"Earnings" matter... until they don't. What's wrong with these two charts?

 

EBITDA -7% from previous peak...

 

S&P 500 nominal price +15% from previous peak...

 

Still think stocks are "cheap" compared to the last cycle?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:11 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Two Charts.  One QEinfinity Golden Cup.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment jon dough
jon dough's picture

One QEinfinity Golden (Shower) Cup.

 

With bleach, borax, and brighteners!

 

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 22:36 | Link to Comment Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

yes I agree, You cannot have your cake and eat it too. 

But the overall chart of the market is looking insanely good. Did  you know in the last 50 years DECEMBER was the best performing month of the year, yes!

Have a look at the monthly chart of the SPX here => bit.ly/1bocbZf

This is a good chart, and shows that in 2013 the BEARS got hammered. There was only 2 red months since JAN. WOW! just WOW!

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 21:41 | Link to Comment mofreedom
mofreedom's picture

We're running out of DA and can't replenish it.

T growing like a weed.

E nowhere to be found.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

They don't matter until credit starts to dry up - then they matter.  As long as the Fed's running the printers full tilt the delusion can continue, and who cares about multiples.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Crash Overide
Sat, 12/07/2013 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

That's great!

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment moneybots
moneybots's picture

"They don't matter until credit starts to dry up - then they matter.  As long as the Fed's running the printers full tilt the delusion can continue, and who cares about multiples."

 

Or not.  Quhat if China lands a contingent of troops on the Dialou islands?  All that money that has no where to go but the stock market, could suddenly be running elsewhere.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 21:50 | Link to Comment frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Sweet. Low interest rates for companies to borrow and buy back their own stock. Now they have less shares. They generate less revenue but since they have less shares n interest expense they high jump over lowered earning expectations. Why did'nt we think of that.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Well.. I'd think that getting away from Wall Street isn't necessarily a bad idea (gets them out from under the thumnbs of hedge fund managers).  Watch as more and more go "private."

Wall Street & Fed going down...

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

"Why did'nt we think of that."

Yep, that's what I missed. I knew the demand would never be their. I missed the refi's and buybacks.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 21:54 | Link to Comment remain calm
remain calm's picture

So do REVENUES matter or PRICE TO SALES or EBITA? In a bubble nothing matters. Your looking at objective data and making rational conclusions. But bubbles are irrational, so they fucking don't matter.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:13 | Link to Comment frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Revenues definitely don't matter. What seems obvious from those two charts is that with All this Fed/ juice, the EBITDA can't hit a manipulated All Time High like the S& P 500, Which Clearly screams we are in a Bubble.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Revenues definitely don't matter.

Yes they do.  People can ignore reality and pretend revenue doesn't matter, but they won't be able to ignore the consequences of making that mistake (ignoring reality).

Google: cafepress cursing fish

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:07 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

BTC 690!!!  get em while they cheap!!!   keep stackin!

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:17 | Link to Comment frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

690 !! I don't know...I feel like you're driving a hard bargain.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:30 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

hey..  tried to help out my fellow ZH'ers..  back over $800 again - snooze ya lose

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:36 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

and of course sold over $800...  not hold, unless you are fonestar or something

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 22:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

QE and the fucking FED.

Fucking backstop to reward the malfeasant banks.

Fri, 12/06/2013 - 23:34 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

EBITDA means Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation. Interest rates are much much lower now, so GAAP earnings are actually higher than in 2007.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 05:57 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

BTC back to 350

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 06:29 | Link to Comment happel
happel's picture

Shut up. Stop thinking. BTFD. BTFATH. Get it, got it, good.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Doubleth1nker
Doubleth1nker's picture

There's nothing wrong with the charts.  Put up the one with the S&P against the Fed balance sheet.  That's all you need to know.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment island
island's picture

Still think stocks are "cheap" compared to the last cycle?

 

But what if through the magic of miracle accounting and tax credits (courtesy of you and me) EAITDA just happens to be + 10%!!  LOL.

Sat, 12/07/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

The FED pumping so much money into the system to prevent collapse is poisoning the markets with poor investments if there is any good ones to invest in and the return on this investment starts collapsing through over supply of liquidity with nowhere for it to go!

This is my blunt in your face, not technical reasoning.

Invest 100 dollars and get a 10 dollar return at 10%

Invest 10 dollars and get 10 dollars return thats 100%!

What we got is 1000 dollar investments the fixed 10 dollar return or very little change giving a 1% return.

Did I get that right?

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