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The Real US Unemployment Rate: 11.5%
While it may appear at first glance that the first chart below shows just one data series, what we have shown are two data sets: one presents, on an inverted axis, the Civilian Employment-to-Population rate, which unlike the unemployment rate as a fraction of the labor force (most recently printing at just 7%), has barely budged since the Lehman collapse. The other data set shows what an implied unemployment rate as calculated by Zero Hedge would be assuming a long-term average of 65.8% worker labor participation rate.
As we reported earlier, according to the BLS this number most recently was 63.0%: a 20 bps rebound from the 35 year low posted in October, but still woefully wrong. The chart shows much more accurately what the real unemployment rate would be when looking at the overall noninstitutional population instead of the ever rising amount of Americans who for one reason or another are not in the labor force.
On the next chart, we then proceed to juxtapose the implied unemployment rate with the officially reported BLS data.
In short: applying a realistic labor force participation rate to the unemployment rate series, shows that the real US unemployment rate is now 11.5%, a 4.5% difference from the reported number, and the second highest ever, only better compared to October's 4.7%.
Of course, don't inform the Fed of this discrepancy: if aware, the Fed's monetary mandarins would likely never taper. Then again, if indeed the Fed never does taper as many suggest (since it is the flow, not the stock), we will know just which series of unemployment data the Fed is looking at.
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Looks like things are getting better! BTFD & BTFATH
Urge to kill RISING,,fading,,,fading,,,,,RISING!!!
Homer Simpson
“That propaganda is good which leads to success, and that is bad which fails to achieve the desired result. It is not propaganda’s task to be intelligent, its task is to lead to success.”
? Joseph Goebbels
What's the big deal? The reporting of the unemployment rate is only 95% LOWER than what it really is. Remember, full faith and credit of the almighty DOHlar is what keeps the train moving, so if people believe it to be good then it will be good. Just like Santa Clause. /sarc
Try doubling that number
Exactly!
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
41% of Net New Jobs in November Were in Government
No biggie. Only 1 in 5 people with a job in America work for government as it is. Let's have government hire MOAR!
"Federal, state and local governments hired a net additional 338,000 workers in November, equaling 41 percent of the total of 818,000 net additional jobs created in the United States during the month."
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/41-net-new-jobs-no...
Local TV is running ads by 'companies' offering to get you approved for Social Security Disability. The pitch is: It is your RIGHT, even if you have been previously denied, many conditions you might not be aware of qualify, etc.
The good thing for Government is: If you are disabiled, you are not unemployed.
i gave up being actively negative on asset bubbles several months ago and slowed down my posts here. when the debt and overspending does hit i'll join up here to say 'i told you so'. meanwhile....i do what i do......and fuck what the markets say
But I went all in yesterday.
Chocolate rations have been increased to 20 grams.
....from 30 grams
Does it got any weed up in it?
Soma.
It's a Brave New World.
MOAR SOMA!!!!
Even 11.5% is generous...
lol, so true!
Yea I wonder what John Williams has it at.
Does seem too low...
>> Even 11.5% is generous...
I don't know. For example, I just sold 40 strawberry runners for $10, effectively dropping me from the rolls of the long term unemployed. A lot of people are falling into that category. Bring in a coke bottle for a refund, off the list you go. Find a quarter in a parking lot, off the list you go.
Verbal Kint.
but he's just a stupid cripple
dont tell seeking obama aka seeking alpha - they are gushing at the wonderful numbers and quickly deleting any posts that question the same
I'm not in the labor force because of BitCoin so you can take me off of the graph.
Don't worry, self driving trucks are on the way.
We'll all be celebrating full employment soon if we can just kick-start the slumbering prison building program.
"Don't worry, self driving trucks are on the way"...
I'm assuming by the same Company that develops the software for waiterless restaurants and checkout counters at every grocery store.
Good demand if you're a software developer, but I wouldn't want to be making that 3:00am call to Bangalore to get the code fixed when that truck is driving in the wrong lane!
So Imagine
http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/could-prime-air-drones-be-hacked-proba...
If Amazon wouldn't give a rats ass about your drone delivered camera how Applebee's will feel about your servant delivered meal.
Careful now. Jeff wants only the best for us, just like Keith Alexander.
Re-using those wonderful words of George Herbert Walker after we annihilated Iraq in the first Gulf War
-"It's a kindler gentler drone"...
Ugh! ZEROHEDGE
glass is half empty...
glass is half empty...
glass is half empty...
glass is half empty...
glass is half empty...
glass is half empty...
Ugh! REALITY
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
There are still no jobs tomorrow...
+1 But I've heard that there's plenty of job growth in the new normal thanks to Obamacare. Jobs are growing from full-time to part-time.
If you like your full-time job, you can take your full-time job and shove it.
ugh! webspin
I'm a gov psyop...
I'm a gov psyop...
I'm a gov psyop...
If it is always half empty it is always half full. Therefor does not reflect the true economic status of most Americans.
You guys got a glass? I'm down to cupping my hands together....
If the choice of your screen name is any indication of your expertise as a professional troll, I sincerely recommend you rethink your career path. I hear walmart is hiring.
webspin - for happy obama talk see seeking alpha - you will luv it
If the glass is really 1/3 full, but you are being told it is Half Full, it is your fiduciary duty to expose it.
It's obvious Webspin that you kneeled in front of your master Obama,unzipped his pants,put his penis in your mouth and you drank his koolaid. Now you're trippin
@webspin:
ZH is a home for bears. That means it has a perspective, and that's what makes it entertaining and interesting to read. I only wish there were more news sources out there with the bravery to acknowledge and celebrate their perspective, thus clarifying their writing. The readers on here, one hopes, are smart enough to recognize confirmation bias as a threat and to try to balance out ZH's perspective with others that are more positive in nature. We can then apply critical thinking to determine our own opinions based on a variety of inputs.
From my perspective, the reason ZH is ending up becoming the "bearish goldstandard" (with a variety of meanings behind that phrase) is because they are presenting a lot of data that is seen almost nowhere else in the media sphere and that does not fit the "recovery" script. Because noone else is presenting this negative data, ZH has a lot to put out there.
The acid test for their perspective will come if TPTB adopt a true hard-money standard (either metallic or perhaps there is room for creativity here?) with equal -- meaning non-corrupt -- treatment for elite and small investors (what ZH fundamentally supports, Tyler can step in here and correct me if I'm wrong), the economy continues falling apart, the markets tank, and all the other media are trumpeting the "world is over!" meme with data showing continuing collapse. In theory, if the above is the Tylers' perceived medicine, then at that point, no matter how bad the economy appears at any given moment, ZH would be cheerleading for the leadership. It would be in that environment that contrarians would be seeking out positive clues to suggest the strategy is working. Currently, given that the hard money standard is still an oddity only to be discussed in MSM sources as an unworkable and / or subversive option, while the concept of a genuinely level playing field in the investment world is demonstrably a joke, the Tylers' perspective still has a long way to go until it faces its acid test, needing to decide to be either contrarian, or bearish.
I don't see that test happening any time soon.
At the same time, I am beginning to see interesting signs of the MSM beginning to question the underpinnings of the current system. Two articles jumped out at me:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/les-leopold/wall-streets-police-state_b_43...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matt-walsh/shopping-on-thanksgiving_b_4310...
In their quest to stay "relevant", they may yet be forced into actually reporting material that shows the current strategy is failing miserably. Time will tell.
Sure looks like the government really cooks their numbers.
Robots replace workers in fast food restaurants as wages rise More long-term unemployment and higher prices will eventually be more noticeable.
As long as the sheeple believe it continues.
Wages are rising? And of course were workers willing to shovel shit for close to nothing restaurants would never replace them with robots just to add a percentage or two to profit margin. Then again you maybe correct. Since Chinese labor in many instances is cheaper than automating. But then the workers wear out fairly early over there. Hmmmm, China is easing up on the one child policy. Apwlle we find u more workers quickie, quickie. U make mo money.
My calculations show the real US I'm-on-the-dole rate is currently 29%.
Taxpayers are muppets.
So last month 900k people were taken out of the employment pool and some how the employment rate went up. This month they add 400k+ back into the labor pool and the rate goes down. Do they think we are that stupid?
"Do they think we are that stupid?"
Obviously.
see seeking alpha - yes, they are that stupid
Very few people look at the actual site with the data. Most just read the headlines and go with that.
3 part time min wage jobs to make the minimum credit card payment, the new American Dream!
So...Obammy is batting in same league as : Hollande of France!
For your viewing pleasure I give to you the savior of America's children Knightscope:
The K5 Autonomous Data Machine
Sandy Hook will never happen again with Knightscope.
Don't worry you can trust the robot.
My favorite quote:
"The co-founders have chosen to position the K5 not as a job killer, but as a system that will upgrade the role of security guard, even if fewer humans are employed."
...then, once the system is armed, it is certain the teenagers will undoubtedly get a thrill from the
robot.
setphaseronstun
setstaseronphun
There is a Masonic Lodge very near to the Sandy Hook school.
Public hoodwinked by news media coverup?
Anyone see the Conspiracy Theory that Sandy Hook was a simulation exercise and that the children were not killed but instead kidnapped and given to secret pedophile organizations with complicity of the Government?
Reports on internet that parents were not allowed to see the children's bodies, only photos, and only closed coffins, no open coffins at funerals.
Similar to child trafficking prostitution rings.
Friday humor: A nutty professor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qD3XMyNmfeY
Millions of unempployed, underemployed, welfared, subsistence-seeking 'Mericans need to return to the farmlands and practice low energy/low oil-based techniques and grow food. They are not suited for the concrete, sugar-ladened jungles. "Extras" will not be available until they grow a food surplus.
Meanwhile, Farmers across America are praying they can be contained in the Cities.
That would require them to purchase available farmable land....most can't even afford a house much less land to grow anything on.
Communist Communes Comrade from Obama.
They would then be working for and supporting the corporate famers. Farming sounds like such an idyllic lifestyle. Until droughts, floods, disease, pests, soil depletion...........
Then next thing ya know ya gotta buy another damn mule.
You do not need to buy another mule to destroy a farmer's life.
Try India, genetically modified seed that does not reproduce and you borrow to buy the seed for a year and a failed crop you then go and commit suicide.
Leave you to chase down the name of the corporation.
BLS is diverging away from Gallup's daily unemployment tracking. Typically BLS trend lags Gallup's .
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163358/unemployment-seasonally-adjusted.aspx
What could be worrying is if the trend continues.
The problem is there is no accountability and we are generations into it. The entire government is based on the greatest document for a plan of building a nation as perfect as can be. However through abuse of power, corruption and propoganda and now just plain old lying we are losing the nation.
Thank God for elections and we better vote 95% of these bastards out of office. That is a start- then we assemble an honest court system and put in prison the dishonest that are currently holding public office. That will get peoples minds and characters back on track.
That includes POTUS that coerce young pages to allow them to stick cigars up their vaginas. (Abuse of Power -even though they may have a legitimate reason to do so).
"If elections changed anything they would be illegal".
You had me until:
"Thank God for elections and we better vote 95% of these bastards out of office. That is a start- then we assemble an honest court system and put in prison the dishonest that are currently holding public office. That will get peoples minds and characters back on track."
Did I miss a /sarc somewhere?
I still believe thaat there are honest and good people out there (a bunch on ZeroHedge)- however power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
So we need to get all the bastards that have been there for more than one term in the senate (6 years) and two years for the congress, The Constitution was set up by honerable people who laid their lives on the line so they had a vested interest in doing the right and fair thing. Most believed in a higher authority and that King wasn't the King of England.
Today we have congenital and pathological liars and some fricking idiots running this country. With elections at least we are given a glimmer of hope that some politician will do the right thing. In a totalitarian regime you get what they give you. So no matter how bad it currntly looks it could be a lot worse i.e. Soviet Union, etc.
I still believe thaat there are honest and good people out there (a bunch on ZeroHedge)- however power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
So we need to get all the bastards that have been there for more than one term in the senate (6 years) and two years for the congress, The Constitution was set up by honerable people who laid their lives on the line so they had a vested interest in doing the right and fair thing. Most believed in a higher authority and that King wasn't the King of England.
Today we have congenital and pathological liars and some fricking idiots running this country. With elections at least we are given a glimmer of hope that some politician will do the right thing. In a totalitarian regime you get what they give you. So no matter how bad it currntly looks it could be a lot worse i.e. Soviet Union, etc.
Here in Colorado, marijuana has been decriminalized. How did it become decriminalized? Did the politicians (so-called "leaders") in the State Legislature pass laws to decriminalize it because it was "the will of the people"? No. The people had to go around the politicians with a petition process to get the issue on the ballot. Obviously, the people wanted it decriminalized. So why didn't the so-called "Representatives of the people" do this? Why did the people have to go around their "representatives"? Am I really supposed to think that the politicians represent the people? To me that notion is absurd. How about the T.A.R.P. Bank bailouts? Was that a representation of "the will of the people"? Hahaha!
And now that the people demanded that marijuana be made legal, the politicians have $$$ in their eyes. They want to Tax it to the maximum possible exent that they think they can get away with, while still "competing" with the black market. The greed of politicians is despicable imo.
Fed targets are for PR...we all know that by now
Where's my seeing eye dog
Can someone explain this to me? I don't understand what the benefit is to fudging the numbers and propping up the stock market via QE. It seems to me that it won't lead to improved conditions. Now if you took that QE money and mailed it as checks to every citizen, I think that would increase spending and/or paying down of consumer debt.
Improving economic conditions isn't the goal here.
Right, from the times of the Romans to Saudi Arabia handing out checks to their population, the goal here is DISTRACTION & PACIFICATION
Common gents if you count in all the Santas front of the department stores that's alone should show a spike in labor force participation and a drop to 6.99% unemployment rate. There I fixed it.
Obammy on the cover of Newsweek here :
http://theweek.com/article/index/232260/newsweeks-anti-obama-cover-story-has-the-magazine-lost-all-credibility
November 8th, 2013 http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-572-october-employment-and-unemployment
• Large Shift in August-October Period Seasonal Adjustments Bloated Latest Payroll Reporting
• Loss of Long-Term Unemployed from Headline Labor Force Boosted Alternate Unemployment Rate to New High
• Government-Shutdown Impact on October Unemployment Reporting Masked by Misclassification and Seasonal-Adjustment Fiasco
• October Unemployment: 7.3% (U.3), 13.8% (U.6), 23.5% (ShadowStats)
Add to the real unemployment rate, the real decline in wages. No matter, u.s. citizens have been sufficiently indoctrinated to believe that as long as they keep their mouths shut and continue to bow to their Corporate masters They will be provided a Sunday afternoon 6 pack and a football game redeemable for a couple a joints and a few hours on face book.
Yeah but most of the 25% unemployed are non violent. Move along...
You did not make that layoff.
So the government keeps two sets of books. One that they show to the public, and another, with the real information that they lock up in a safe. Hmmm, methinks I will try that with my busines vis a vis the IRS.
Bullish?
I bet you don't see that take on PBS newshour tonight.
The Fed is fully aware of the misery. I don't know why ZH is falling victim to the tapering propaganda. The Fed has in the last months increasingly brought the low labor participation rate into their statements.
Let's face it, historical measures of standards for unemployment really don't apply anymore. Robotics, productivity improvements, global outsourcing, lower retail demand, aging population etc...all add up to one thing...heading towards 50% of the population working...just assume that more and more will be on the doles either through age or skills not useful to the current economy. It is like when the gov tried to open a call center and use displaced fisherman from the Northeast to man it...some retraining just isn't going to work. It will be a painful (to be in or to watch) retirement with many more on the street over the next 20 years but once all this clears out, there may be a new Android driven millenial group that moves things forward. Of course the structural debt at that point will mean most of the smart millenials already got dual citizenship with Canada...
The thing to remember is that in covertly fascist systems corporations and big government are lying in the same bed. Lying, get it, a pun?
.
What taper? We don't need no stinkin' taper!!!
ONWARD!!!!!