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Presented with one comment... fundamentals...
Still confused at what drove stocks higher?
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Ekm says 10-year bond trades like penny stock in 10bps moves
Have a good weekend, bitchez!
waddaya mean odd? everything looks POMO perfect! / s
Fascinating correlation.
So why isn't it reflected in the Dollar/yen which is the more obvious context?
Because Obama?
Seems to me, but then again, I'm a thick sort of manly crew-magnon dimwit (but Mrs K thinks I'm a hunk... she especially like it when I shave my brows in the morning) but there is or there is not a God or there is or is not inflation or deflation.
So, if all is well with the world, to taper vs not to taper, then stawks and gold along with the rest of the commodities complex should be trading in tandem in opposition to the dollar and yields.
So where the fuck do them stawk guys get off?
Oh, you mean that Earnings forecast!
Oh, right, employment is hunkie dorie (especially the plumber cleaning out my facial hair from the horse water trough drain every day) incomes are rising nicely (especially the COLAS on the EBT and SS payments) and the Liquidity Trap has done went and evaporated along with Agrophobic Global Warming. Energy is plentiful and free and All Laws Apply Equally.
Wow, even the banking/Washington connection has been severed like a politicians credibility in a screwed up second term.
It don't makie no sense.
No sensie, no tickie.
If the 10 year closed above 3% you know all hell would break loose, and MBS traders would be flinging themselves from high rises...
Not so sure, looks like they are easing themselves into this.
Bad craziness.
Looks like someone pulled some gold out of account 21214.
-> Stocks up next week
-> Stocks down next week
-> Gold up next week
-> Gold down next week
-> Bitcoin up next week
-> Bitcoin down next week
-> 10 Year Yield up next week
-> 10 Year Yield down next week
Jesus Christ, a real buncha party types here, dawg...
Good poll. Everyone please participate.
I have no idea about the substance of your post or if there even is any, but your writing style is just terrible. Give it up already.
Kinucks, I upped you just for the brow shave.
FORWARD SOVIET CLIPPERS!
Three Card Monte.
i wonder whatever happened to ekm.
"They" came and took him away? I sure hope not...
Ekm said many things...
I am still waiting for that impeding disaster of his.
he said the dow could go to 30k. he should have stopped there.
Hey Fonz, I sincerely liked EKM for his conviction and steadfastness. EKM may have missed the call by 1-3-5 years... Who knows?
For all we know the "Royal Mounted Police" threw him down an air conditioning shaft. EKM might resurface in 27 years as the next "Nelson Manwhetto"...
I think his heart was in the right place though. P.S. BRING BACK ~~~~ Francis_Sawyer > Bitchez!
+1
How can all these BTC trolls post their gibberish without constraint but francis_sawyer got the boot?
"His name is Robert Paulson..."
Did sawyer really get the boot?
The odd one out was everyone not in stawks.
Fundamentals? That's ADORABLE!
Fundamentals? Wuzzat?
.
Yep, that's why people like Hugh Hendry are abandoning the fundamentals.
Actually, I should say they're abandoning the Old Fundamentals, the ones where you expected the markets, even when rigged, to approximate at least conceivable possible results of unrigged markets, and regulators, prosecutors, and courts to go through the motions in a convincing enough manner and make enough arrests and convictions to make it look good enough.
Of course, the Old Fundamentals were adopted when the Older Fundamentals were abandoned, back in the day when those who rigged markets took great pains to cover their tracks because they were concerned about getting caught, as they knew that getting caught had to be avoided.
It's now the day of the New Fundamentals. All the markets are rigged, everyone knows it, and everyone knows that nothing of consequence will ever be done about it.
Connections matter more than any laws, rules, or expectations. Connections determine whether insider trading is a crime with a punishment, a disappointment with finger wagging and tepid words of warning, or proper due dilligence.
Economics? Assets, liabilities, balance sheets, cash flow, reserves? All meaningless except as tools of subterfuge. In every country that is a part of The Game, the TBTFs and central banks are cheating their asses off.
One new fundamental rises above the others. The most skillful grifter, the most convincing deceiver, the most clever schemer: knowing this is the key to successful "investment". The mattering thing, the crustiest bit, is who cheats best.
.
New Fundamentals.
I like it. It's got New in it.
The New Fundamentals would be a good name for a folk group.
So, kill japan, save 'merica? What do I win?
A good deal on a Shimano Tiagra 50w reel maybe?
pods
That's not a bad prize at all!
USDX was the odd one out. Even though the dollar weakened all day the yen gained on it.
It's all odd to me. Money just sloshes from side to side. Up here.... down there. So? Trying to scrape off a few bucks from the moving tides is simply nuts.
Random, irrational, tumultuous bubbling forever!
Rocky 1pip on a standard 100k currency contract generates $10. There's 100 pips in each ¢ of currency movement. 100 pips=$1000.00 per ¢ of movment.
You know know where I park my profits, and it isn't in currencies...
Mr. Racoon - I get you're talking about institutional collecting funds for providing nothing but funny thing to me is how much money isn't sloshing around in general...it is only going exactly where the Fed wants it to go. Equities, RE, CRE, bonds. I'm actually astounded how effectively actual stuff isn't moving around in price...no commodity bubbles since '11. Not a single commodity @ highs (ok, maybe cattle) despite some level of dollar weakness. Despite natural occurences of flood or disease or depletion or or or. What are the odds no commodities near peaks while paper is all blasting off. Treasuries maintaining sub 3% 10yr despite 16k Dow. Last time Dow was here 10yr was almost double. RE, CRE, equities rising as if Ben was a magician.
Gotta give the masters of the world credit where credit is due. I see nor hear any questions in the MSM about how this is even possible...such narrowly defined bubbles without any "leakage" into problematic areas of the economy??? Or what the implications of mispricing scarce goods will be in the near future as demand rises, supply falls, and potential solutions are delayed.
Must keep telling myself paper is good, real things bad.
Well spoken Ham-bone. The way you simplify the ponzi is beyond pale. Have a nice W/E...
Mr. Yen X -
given all that matters any more is extrapolating the trend...I'm growing more comfortable w/ my belief we will see Dow 20k bout the same time we see Silver @ $10. Non sensical, non believable, non fundamental, non mine-able, non non non...except it seems the reality we are "trending" toward. Don't think...just see.
Enjoy the weekend and look forward to watching next weeks episode of ponzinomics w/ y'all.
Be well, and I always look forward to your insights...
Now we are getting somewhere. The mental leap that most of us can't seem to take is envisioning the 10yr at 3.5% alongside your other predictions.
Fonz - I'll go full retard on ya and say dow will head toward 20k, silver moving to $10, and 10yr here or lower and definitely under 3% (interest rate sensitivity of everything economic requires it...so it shall be).
nope....see you refuse to go full retard. The 10yr will touch 3.5% by May and then back off but stay at or above 3%.,
Stocks probably run right out of the gate and then back off a bit as we touch 3.5%. But that dip will be bought.
Nobody believes it will happen, and so it will.
u r my guide to believing the unbelievable...mold me, shape me sen-sei
Ham-Bone the Japanese bond market will stay under .60% on the long 10y in Japan. Japanese "foreign direct investment" purchases will remain 3-4:1 in Abe-nuckleheads favor, and Fukushima will be a waterpark for the 2020 Summer Olympics.
Agreed with everything Yen just said. Hambone just wait until the fever pitch on here when the 10yr is at 3.35% and ZH posts the BAC charts of a breakdown and short squeeze above 4%. It will be like New Years eve in Times square on here. Then imagine the mental hangover of disappointment on here when not only do yields head back down, but equities head north while gold remains blowtorched.
Yen and Fonz - I believe, I believe...everything but the water park
You guys are killng me. Kudos to both of you.
This thread is a perfect example of why ZH rules....the people who post comments here (along with the prodigious output and unique posting style of the Tylers).
Special mention to the Fonz...your combination of technical saavy and restrained cynical wit is not going unnoticed...
Don't you have an army of algorithms working for you Rocky?
That is how you scrape these days.
SPY surges into the close (and after) to the high of the day and trades 15 million shares after the close (accounrding to etrade?) while IWM drops into the close and little trading after the close. What gives
S&P closed flat on the week. Can't have any red in this bullshit "market."
The only "market" is the conference call with Ben ...
"So Ben, the S&P?"
"MARK-IT 10 points up"
Ben Bernanke. The guy who puts 'mental' into 'fundamental'.
Friday bitchez. We're here, we're alive, may your gods be with you - whoever they are.
And just like reading, believing is fundamental!
I likes maf bess
Wells dey US yutes only skore like 27th in deh wirld.
all I can say it looks like a great time to take out a second mortgage by another under valued fixer, a hunnuka discounted Mercedes and go on a Carribian holiday vacation.
Sorry for this stupid question, but could someone please provide me a high level overview of why the currency market drives the stock market? (i assume this is what the post is suggesting)
One word, three letters. FED.
That level high enough?
ok... maybe a little more detail... :)
usually when a currency indicies go down it means that investods are seeking money somewhere else in either stocks or bonds, but now things are so fubar that fundamentals and technicals dont matter, like bloomberg can bullshit that the market is going up because the eurjpy is stronger... markets are a totall joke, a 15 years old kid is now a tr ader
fundamentally a lower value of a currency drives up prices of other things measured in that currency.
Given the interconnectedness of global markets and of global currency trading (swaps, FOREX, foreign reserves at each central bank) it's very difficult to tie this nonlinear relationship into a credible answer at any given moment in true proportions matching any equation or model.
However, from time to time, some purity will be visible in the overlay (EURUSD, SP500) that also appears as a scatterplot slope fitting a bunch of data for a while.
I'm pretty high but I'm not so sure about my overview... Before the fed really blew the wheels off there was a very strong correlation between a rising market and weakening USD and vice-versa. I understand this as (wealthy) investors selling dollars to buy stocks or alternatively selling stocks to buy dollars, as a risk on risk off sort of thing. The Japanese (wealthy) investors still go to JPY for risk off, so I'd assume when you see a big sell-off like this it is Japanese banks etc selling Yen to go into higher yielding or riskier positions like EUR or SPY. If my understanding is correct then the driver is risk appetite and the currency and market prices are just results of that.
The Fed trading desk felt jolly and played a joke on the rest. Don't trade anymore, just return your clients money and go play in the sun. The Fed has got full control over this experiment.
The Truth About Paul Revere | America: Facts vs. Fiction
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeQGWTBl2x8 (3:29)
....and my force fed reality continues to crumble.
New motto: Why the lie?
Year end statments.
Must...pump...portfolios...
Fun-da-mentals are mind puzzles, right?
Which weighs more, a ton of bricks or a ton of feathers?
Mutton's moar importint dan fun DOH mentals.
Anyone feel like starting a revolution...........by the way FUCK YOU NSA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep7W89I_V_g&feature=player_detailpage
Well... you know, We all want to change the world.
safe word!
SAFE WORD!!
http://www.comicbookmovie.com/images/users/uploads/10959/633722914827104810-SafeWord.jpg
LOL - just kidding. I'd go without margin for vxx or HVU but I wouldn't touch margin on this. So long as you're avoiding margin you should be relatively safe as-is. Just don't get greedy. You'll likely see a rise of 11x inverse to SPY / DIA / Dow / s&p500 just using HVU, about half of that or less using VXX in the coming months.
19.8444 19.8444 / 160 11 = 32/share (today under 9), and 65/share for SPY=150, and 314/share for SPY=130
Don't be greedy. Just dip a toe. ONE toe in.
You want a toe, I'll give you a toe
I figure if SPY tops out around 183 that would put HVU around 7.30. At current pricing & timing I'd be happy under $9/share given the giant leverage & no time limit unlike options. Given the pricing for decent options on stocks that do a large linear move frequently enough to be willing to risk it 5-15 otm (depending on the chosen underlying) I'd put 20 shares as roughly equal reward vs risk (not counting time risk), and shares don't have a time limit.
Can someone please explain to me what the heck the S&P has to do with EURJPY? Why would one be responsive to the other in any way at all?
Lower yen implies cheaper overseas borrowing to buy stawks.
http://www.kathylien.com/site/forex-blog/correlation-between-eurusd-usdjpy-and-stocks
Also notice, everytime the EURJPY breaks 140, the usa goes at or near a recession.
Do yourself a favor. I'm being polite. Open the monthly chart of usd/jpy going back to 1980 ish' . Draw a FIBI retracement (74-76 area to the 2007 highs) Now WIKI total global GDP since 2007. (They'll be lots' of excuses in the figures)
Japan is going to lose control of the yen! The yen is regarded as an "risk averse currency" because of it's reverse deficite! Japan is an export economy!
Kyle Bass succinctly understands as do I, that Japan is going to lose control of the yen as they continue to monetize worthless debt that hasn't been "formally" written down since the 80s'. You would be better off using old Deutchmarks as a proxy for your euro/yen trade. You're chasing the rising sun west...
I agree with you. I was providing the synopsis, not my investment strategy. Hehe
Let me get this straight - correct me if I misapprehend here... someone is shoving money into EURJPY to influence the price and that money has nowhere better to go than BTFATH?
Japan CB is shoving the yen into euros. The euro has turned into the safe haven currency.
Doom On: the IMF has 204 countries ready now, to do a global currency revaluation to within 3-5% of each other, within the next 90 days, if the elite have their way, with China and the gold standard leading the path when announced. Lindsey Williams (alaska preacher guy) is your friend, and so is his insider.
Just shut up and BTFATH !!! Everybody else is doing it, so whats wrong with you? You wanna get left behind?
Oh, and don't forget to do it in a 3X leveraged ETF on Margin...