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China October Gold Imports Surge To Second Highest Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Overnight, China reported its biggest trade surplus in almost five years, when November net exports hit $33.8 billion, up from $31.1 billion in October, and 50% above the $21.2 billion consensus estimate. This was driven by a surge in exports which rose by 12.7% (more than the 7% expected), while imports rose by a slightly disappointing (5.3% vs Exp. 7.0%). Of course, when it comes to Chinese trade data, the numbers are so notoriously manipulated that even Goldman threw up on them as recently as last year forcing China to admit everything was more or less made up. Regardless, the ongoing influx of US Dollars means that the Chinese FX reserves of $3.66 trillion in Q3 will swell even more. The bigger question is what will China do with the surplus: will it buy more Treasurys - something it hasn't done in over a year - or invest in alternative commodities.

Such as gold.

According to Hong Kong customs data, in the month of October (with the usual one month delay), China imported 148 total tons of gold in a month in which the price of gold, once again plunged. Curiously, unlike momentum chasers of paper ETF promises to get gold delivery, China continues to BTFD in gold, and the 148 tons of import in the past month was the second highest monthly import ever through Hong Kong, second only to the 224 tons imported in March of 2013. Compared to a year ago, when the price of gold was over 30% higher, China has imported over 200% more than the 48 tons it bought through Hong Kong a year ago. At least someone is grateful for plunging gold prices.

On a net basis, October was also the second busiest month for Chinese gold imports, soaring to a near record 131.2 tons, second only to March's 136.2 tons, and represents the sixth consecutive month in which China has imported more than 100 tons of gold net of exports.

These numbers of course exclude gold procured in China using other means, such as imports via other venues, as well as internally produced gold.

In total, China's gross YTD imports now amount to just over 1260 tons, while the net gold imports from Hong Kong are a record 982 tons.

Finally, putting the total number of imports in perspective since our September 2011 expose in which we noted that it was now China's explicit strategy to confidentially hoard gold, China has imported a whopping 2380 tons of gold in the past 26 months. Throughout this period the PBOC has never updated its new official holdings number. However, one thing is clear: the more the price of (paper?) gold drops, the more the Chinese purchases of physical gold become. And yes, that is 26 consecutive months of positive (and increasing) gold imports.

One thing is certain: the number of China's official gold holdings, which has not been updated in nearly five years since early 2009, is now hopelessly inaccurate.

 

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Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:21 | 4226779 Racer
Racer's picture

China is laughing all the way to it's gold vaults at the idiocy of the central bwanksters manipulating the price of paper gold

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:21 | 4226782 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

China October Bitcoin Imports Surge To Second Highest Ever. Not.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:24 | 4226787 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Read the damn article.  People are still going nuts for Bitcoin in China.  The regulations simply forbade banks from dealing in them or providing insurance for them.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:26 | 4226791 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

yes of course they are, you just keep telling yourself that.

Now how many people are there in china, and how many bitcoin holders are there...

Now, if you care to read the damn comment...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:29 | 4226797 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin is huge in China and spreading fast.  You can argue with reality as much as you like and reality doesn't give a shit.  Bitcoin helps evade capital controls and taxes in ways gold and silver never could.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:33 | 4226808 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

How many bitcoin holders are there in a polulation of 2 billion?

Define 'huge', in terms of real numbers...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:36 | 4226815 fonestar
fonestar's picture

How would we even know how many people hold Bitcoin in a population?  Bitcoin could be held in multiple wallets and does not need to go through an official exchange.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:42 | 4226820 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

So not many then...

How can you say it's 'huge' in China then?

Given your earlier comment, can you define 'spreading fast'?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:44 | 4226830 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Ignore him. It's chilly in NYC, and shilly at ZH.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:13 | 4226853 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Always a good idea, when someone asks a question you don't like, just ignore him eh...

That'll work. Not.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:29 | 4226931 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

FUCK THEM CHICOMS. NUKE'EM!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:34 | 4226945 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Yes fuck 'em, whatever they are, and them other thingy's as well...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:38 | 4226957 Stuart
Stuart's picture

IS Bitcoin or the US dollar still going to be around 1000 years from now, no.  Is gold, yes.  Buy it for your legacy.  

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:40 | 4226965 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Well Fonestar, it’s been nice talking to you, don’t feel too much more enlightened over Bitcoin other than that you know some awfully nice Chinese people in your office who I’m assuming get on really well with your wife.

Other than that I’m bored with this conversation already so take care, enjoy your Bitcoin ‘hugeness’ and do try not to get crushed along with everyone else on the way out…

Good night.

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:48 | 4226986 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I thought this thread was about gold?  Why are we talking about bitscam?

To get back to the article about GOLD, these low gold prices certainly are benefitting someone.  Aren't they?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:24 | 4227061 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Who owns the LME now?

Oh fuck.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:55 | 4227871 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

fone...its a good thing ur not a fish, cause you would be caught with the very first worm....

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 02:51 | 4228602 PP
PP's picture

@Harlequin001 and @fonestar:

Chinese bitcoin holders are around 300,000, compare to 1.4 billion population

Most Chinese see bitcoin as an highly speculative vitual item, like a stock.

No one want to hold it forever due to too fluctuate price

Bitcoin is forbiddened in China as a currency, so bisides speculating, no other use of it.

One more thing, we can assure you if more people hold bitcoin, government will crack down it. Very simple step: close those shit bitcoin trading website and arrest those programmers then block bitcoin trading web from other countries.

 

you can't waste too many electricity, energy and chips to "mine" such shit coin, donate your electricity, time and money to the children in poverty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:54 | 4227254 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

SWRichmond

The Central Bank of DoChenRollingBearing is hoping to acquire (a small amount of) gold for BTC perhaps as soon as tomorrow (when the two companies I have contacted get back to me).  Of  course I will keep the ZH community informed of Beginning Bitcoiner Bearing and his progress in bolstering its central bank gold reserves.

Bought gold for cash earlier a few days ago as well.  

***

Answering your question: at least for a while low gold prices benefit me!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:43 | 4226969 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Also... Gold is for the ages and the price per oz is not as important as how many oz's you have.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:52 | 4227023 SRSrocco
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Not only are the EAST buying gold hand over fist, the TOP 2 EASTERN GOLD PRODUCERS have now surpassed the top 3 WESTERN GOLD PRODUCERS in gold production.

 

GOLD PRODUCTION WARS: The East Slays the West

http://srsroccoreport.com/gold-production-wars-the-east-slays-the-west/g...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:26 | 4227053 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

All you have to remember is what happened when the USA threatened remove China from SWIFT.

USA: If you don't comply with our demands we could remove/limit your access to SWIFT. How would you pay for Arab oil then!!

China: We would simply put gold bullion on an aeroplane.

USA: ... :-O No, don't do that. You can stay in SWIFT we were only kidding, please stay in SWIFT.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:52 | 4227135 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

We manipulate gold cheaper.

China buys, we print more fiat.

We STILL don't know how much gold we really have. That chart sure makes us look rich, though, huh?

Maybe it's our way of "paying them back (forward)" for all their buying of our now worthless dollars.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:46 | 4226834 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I work with Chinese, I have contacts in China, my friend's wife is Chinese.  We have the Chinese exchanges, we have fiatleak.com, we have many news stories coming out of China.  Oh, but nevermind reality because you can always just discount it when it doesn't suit your confirmation bias and if that doesn't work just invent some conspiracy to explain things away.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:50 | 4226846 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Fiat still leaking into Bitcoin like there's no tomorrow:

http://fiatleak.com/

The Bitcoin Channel

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:00 | 4226874 fonestar
fonestar's picture

They don't like facts in the comment section BJF.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:09 | 4226890 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Judging by the conversation so far they don't get too many of them either do they?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:23 | 4226916 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yup, and they won't like the blatant and undeniable FACT that ZH has far more interest in Bitcoin than in Gold. 

The site stats of Readers and Comments speak for themselves.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:29 | 4226928 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I think you might find Kirky my boy that its interest in gold, hilarity at bitcoin...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:22 | 4227769 Lamarth
Lamarth's picture

While fiatleak is cool, each buyer also corresponds to a seller, so it proves nothing.  A pair of algos swapping btc back and forth would show up huge.

Now if they measured mined bitcoins being bought with fiat, then we might have something.  Otherwise, I think the best metric of leaking fiat we have is based on the current price.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:51 | 4228011 AgentZeroM
AgentZeroM's picture

Bitcoins are not exactly fungible. There are newly generated coins, and then there is everything else. I mine my bitcoins into an offline wallet, to be saved for a long long time when newly generated coins will be more scarce.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:21 | 4226848 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

So basically all bullshit then, you know someone in your office who knows someone your wife knows who's chinese and on that basis Bitcoin is 'huge' in China. Riiiight.

Can I invest in this then, I haven't got any $10 bills but I can do two 3's and a 4.

 

So that's it then, you just make it up as you go along and tell everyone else they don't know what they're talking about eh...

Is that in the 'Bitcoin for Dummies' manual?

Or is it just standard procedure when you don't know what you're talking about?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:25 | 4226918 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I just told you we have hard numbers coming out of Asia.  Face the facts, Europe and Asia are far of you and if you're waiting for them to become as dumb as the comment section on ZH you're going to be waiting a long time.  You didn't grasp BTC at $5, you dont' grasp BTC at $700 and you will not graps BTC at $5,000.  Maybe you can deal with gold, silver, dollars and anything else is sensory overload.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:26 | 4226924 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'How would we even know how many people hold Bitcoin in a population?  Bitcoin could be held in multiple wallets and does not need to go through an official exchange.'

I'm trying to face up to the facts but there just doesn't seem to be too many of them, by your own admission...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:31 | 4227078 fonestar
fonestar's picture

How many people own gold in China?  I want exact numbers, names, telephone numbers, address and a census.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:53 | 4227248 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Same goes for your assertion about the Chinese being bonkers over bitcoin. You have all the data, you said so. Public the list. 

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:53 | 4226852 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Yes that's it. It's a conspiracy that China is buying tons of gold, hand over fist and the West will end up licking the floor

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:13 | 4226892 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

You'd THINK that you'd get informed, balanced, rational and honest (?) opinions here on ZH blogs.  It turn out that you don't.   Rather, it has become infested with too many who fit the opposite profile: Zealots and fanatics in a circle-jerk, happy to “affirm” each other.

If you want to put it to the test, just ask them about "gold prices", and watch the circus (carnival barkers) come out in full force.  "Manipulation", my ass!  Listen up, MFers:  EVERYTHING of value under the sun is and always has been 'manipulated'.  And always will be.  Or haven't mommy, daddy or Tyler told you this?  "Manipulation" is NOT an acceptable answer.  No points, no cigar!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:28 | 4226926 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Yep just like LIBOR wasn't manipulated.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:32 | 4227081 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Now you sound like a total dumbfuck Kirk. I suggest you go read some other PM's sites before you make that completely absurd claim. ZH is an "informed, balanced, rational and honest" site compared to some other sites. Believe me, I post on some of them. Full of govt bots, retards and trolls.

Maybe you need to wake up to see what China is actually doing (slowly destroying the fraud ridden paper PM markets) or just move on to a "circle jerk" BTC site where you can be happy to "affirm" like minded posters?

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 17:25 | 4227324 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Need an "unbiased" opinion on PM's, try King World News ....

Sorry, I just couldn't help myself ...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:22 | 4227607 bombdog
bombdog's picture

"Listen up, MFers:  EVERYTHING of value under the sun is and always has been 'manipulated'."

EXACTLY my friend. And every sleazy stock pumping pink sheet boiler room operator and his dog is drooling over Bitcoin.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 17:03 | 4227275 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

fonestar yr 4226834

I too work with China re buying bearings for Peru.

If they (our supplier there) ever start to accept BTC, then I promise you the game will have already changed.

Even if you get downvoted to Hell for your aggressive style, without your cheerleading (and even more, my own "Bitcoin Insider"), I might not have gotten to the point of (tomorrow) buying gold for BTC.  

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:46 | 4226836 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Touche

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:55 | 4226999 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

my fart is more tangible than a shitcoin. Bitcoins are bid only because there are plenty of fools out there. Greed and stupidity are in abundance. moth to the flame. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:29 | 4227069 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Your commentary just shows how braindead most of you are (and proud of it).  In your estimation a world-wide transactional network outside of banker control has "no value".  Moronic.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:37 | 4227652 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

shitcoin- unmanipulated, secure, stable, currency. Right.

It is fantasy right? Digital realm? I guess it is whatever u want it to be. 

You would be wise to enlighten yourself to who BANKERS really are. What the are doing. Who do they work for BEFORE you go spendind 16 hours a day on ZH acting like your some kind of Keanu Reeves or something. 

 

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:31 | 4226801 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Your imagination running wild.  The word "bitcoin" does not appear in the article.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:52 | 4226855 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I was referring to the previous ZH article and his assertion that this has somehow impeded Bitcoin from spreading in China.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:59 | 4226864 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

My article?

Now you really are making shit up...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:03 | 4226878 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I never mentioned an article by you.  I said Zerohedge's previous article that I was referencing, learn to read.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:04 | 4226883 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Just curious. read the 'his' bit and wondered...

Best to be as factually correct as possiible when ramping shit eh...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:53 | 4227252 Keyser
Keyser's picture

In the mean time, fonestar has hijacked the first page of yet another topic with his bitcoin obsession. Where are the mods when you need them. 

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:58 | 4227264 fonestar
fonestar's picture

The second comment was attempting to attack Bitcoin.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:41 | 4227824 YC2
YC2's picture

WHO FUCKING CARES.  WHAT GOOD ARE YOU DOING "DEFENDING" IT ALWAYS AND EVERYWHERE?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:29 | 4227788 Lamarth
Lamarth's picture

I'd like to see it not about bitcoin also - but he wasn't the one who derailed the page.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:43 | 4226972 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Jesus Tapdancing Christ on a Pogo Stick, did you have to mention bitcoin? You know that as soon as you do, Rev. fonestar will see it as an invitation for him to proselytize bitcoin with his usual religious fanaticism and fervor. At last count he's already polluted the comments with seven sermonettes, and you know that number is bound to increase because he's a mission poster.

I don't mind the daily articles on bitcoin because I don't have to click on them, and if I do, I know every third comment will be from fonestar. Any other article, though, as soon as someone mentions bitcoin, it invokes his assholiness.

Cat in the box stuff.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:48 | 4226989 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Amen, brother.   Sometimes find myself wishing ZH had an "ignore" feature.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:58 | 4227005 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

pfhonestars like an over-bearing MDB with downs syndrome

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:17 | 4227048 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Yep, it is definitely time to start glacially ignoring him. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:52 | 4228181 yofish
yofish's picture

Use your brain, works for me.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:27 | 4227065 fonestar
fonestar's picture

If I see any disparaging commentary of Satoshi's creation I will rain down with the force of seven angels during a record bitshitstorm.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:48 | 4227120 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

bitshitstorm

It seems you have "coined" a new word.  And an apt one at that, as time will tell.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:04 | 4227158 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

That is our main problem here, the semantics.  They should have called it bitmagic, because it ain't no coin.  And where do they come from, a unicorns bung-hole?  No, they are mined.  Sure they are, Sparky!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:19 | 4227449 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I also noticed the "mining" verb being applied to this in a transparently vulgar attempt to make it seem "real".

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:13 | 4226900 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

The biggest three bullion bullshitters right on top.

USA
Gemany
IMF

It's like some orgy where they keep swapping unallocated, re-hypothocated, fractional spit back and forth. Turn this shit off!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:56 | 4227004 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

I thought the same thing.  We already know that the USA doesn't have enough physical to pay Germany the physical that it doesn't hold.  

And the IMF?  Who knows what they've actually got on hand.

What a joke - China probably already #1 for all we know.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:38 | 4226961 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

Does anybody know how much Gold china has?

Rumors...If anybody reading  Zero Hedge has a link or educated guess Id love to hear it!!!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:28 | 4227072 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Does anybody know how much Gold china has?

Well, we can always take a rough guess. The official holdings, last updated in early 2009, were 1054 tonnes. In 2007, China became the world's largest producer of gold at 276 tonnes, a 12% increase from the previous year, and in 2008 it produced nearly 300 tonnes. So we take a guess of 300 tonnes per year for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, which makes another 1500 tonnes.

From TFA we see that gross imports from HK since September 2011 have been 2380 tonnes, and the chart of net vs gross imports from HK show a net-to-gross ratio of about 0.78, so we take another guess that the net imports from HK since September 2011 were about 1853 tonnes.

There is still the net imports between 'early 2009' and Sptember 2011 to account for. Since I'm insufficiently motivated to search for this figure, I'll take a rough guess. The net HK imports since September 2011 averaged (mean) a little over 71 tonnes per month. If we approximate 'early 2009' to be March 2009, that gives us a span of a year and a half. We also know that Chinese gold imports have been incrasing over time, so to provide a guessed factor of correction, we'll multiply the 71 tonnes a month figure by 12 instead of 18, which makes about 855 tonnes.

For the rough guess total, we add 1054, 1500, 1853, and 855, which gives us a figure of 5262 tonnes.

We still don't know what the figure is for gold imports through sources other than Hong Kong, though.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:42 | 4227105 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That is a fairly conservative number too. A good friend of mine over at Silver Doctors posted recently that it could be double or triple that number and closer to 20K tons.

There are compelling arguments that China is accumulating and hoarding a massive amount of physical gold and silver.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:56 | 4227141 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

That is a fairly conservative number too.

Absolutely agreed. My rough guess is based only on inferences from what we know, and I'd consider it to be pretty much a lower bound estimate of what their gold holdings might be.

There are compelling arguments that China is accumulating and hoarding a massive amount of physical gold and silver.

Oh, you just know they are. They're not stupid, they know the score on the dollar, and they're not inclined to play the patsy for the west again.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:49 | 4227848 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Bay & The Fourth

 

Yes, I would agree that China has lots more than they let on.  It has been that way for a long time for them.  If I were running the show in China I would be buying gold big time as well.

Here in the West, we can each be our central bank by buying holding gold as well.  What can we do about our reckless .gov? Very little, other than looking out for ourselves.  And gold is one of the best answers.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:08 | 4227162 Seal
Seal's picture

what if the USG/Fed made a secret agreement w/China to lower the price of gold so China could buy it on the cheap in return for ...? china not dumping its Treasuries

 

Rememer when Geithner as SoT made 2 trips to China before the POG began dropping big time?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:29 | 4227642 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

seal, very interesting theory.  +1

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:28 | 4226795 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

wonder what they are planning to do with all this gold they have been buying?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:32 | 4226804 pointer
pointer's picture

gold backed currency I would guess.  Perhaps a BitYuan ?

Or maybe we're at a point in the world where the currency for countries is gold and the currency for the peasants is paper and other forms such as BTC that are backed by nothing.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:34 | 4226810 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Building false idols to central banking hubris in fiat currency?

/sarc

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:06 | 4226871 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

As the article somewhat hints at, and aside from what most people think appears obvious or theorize, buying gold helps balance out their trade.  This is not to say the generally accepted theories are false.  But there is also utility to the purchases.  Western Central Bankers are financially ignorant to the process because they have never run a trade surplus in living history.  China's trade surplus is abnormal in that they are not collecting their own currency back in trade.  Their accumulations tend to strengthen the currencies they aquire, instead of their own.  The West's mistake is to take back their own currencies in exchange for gold.  The Chinese would pay 10k an ounce for it to achieve the same balancing effect.  Everyone would be better off and their ponzi would last 10x longer. 

Really when you get right down to it, there is zero reason to cap gold except banker daytrading.  It makes all the sense in the world to let it rise until it is high enough to back all the currencies and debt.  It actually solves most of the bank and sovereign debt problems we are having to put it back on their balance sheets and let it rise. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:10 | 4226896 oak
oak's picture

before the gold price reach 10k/oz or higher, the comex warehouse probably would be empty. by the end of next year, cny could be in the area of 4cny/us$.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:34 | 4226944 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture

 

 

Interesting that the BIS was getting ready to increase gold's status to a tier 1 asset but then didn't do it.  Following the money tells me that there is more rebalancing going on beyond the West to East.

Gold moves when folks/ countries are broke.

I suppose it will rise once the sellers are done ;).

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:10 | 4227027 seek
seek's picture

"buying gold helps balance out their trade."

Nailed it. If you consider the USD toxic their only choice is to buy something with them, and USTs are not that something.

Where I disagree, is there's every reason for TPTB to cap the gold price for the very reason you mention -- if gold is back in the equation it automatically regulates debt and trade surplus/deficits. Meaning that it takes away the Western Central Bank's ability to print and disincentivizes investors from staying inside the Ponzi.

The gold was allowed to float freely without CB intervention, we'd see a continuous rise in gold with printing, and it'd automatically yield at the current inflation rate, so negative interest rate policies manged by ZIRP in an inflationary environment would no longer be possible. They'd be forced to either stop printing or go to overt negative policies, e.g. financial asset taxes, bail-ins and confiscations or fees. Once that happens people see the wizard behind the curtain and it's game over.

Ultimately this is just one more move in the game of whack-a-mole the CBs are playing, since the gold will run out. They may continue to manipulate paper prices and China will have to move on to some other deliverable for USDs -- but the fact that that don't keep USDs is ever so subtely the first step towards USD hyperinflation on a global scale.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:12 | 4227167 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

My thinking is that if they use an actual asset to balance out their bad garbage, they won't need to print to do it.  It would actually stop the hyperinflation.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:27 | 4227196 seek
seek's picture

If the Fed printed dollars, then China got the new dollars and traded them for gold, and whoever got the dollars in trade them permanently parked them someplace, that would be true. It all comes down to who sold the gold and what they do with the USD proceeds.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:07 | 4227557 bombdog
bombdog's picture

He means gold revaluation to save the dollar, and not print any more. That's the only tool the Fed has left, assuming they have some gold but it seems unlikely because they are such a bunch of greedy pigs they "loaned" it all out. They don't give shit about America. Dollars won't be parked they will repatriate into the US and chase US domestic assets until there is some kind of revolution.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:56 | 4227654 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

quinvarius, and seek, i always learn a lot from your comments.  thank you both for once again lifting the viewpoint several degrees.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:39 | 4226816 DonFromWyoming
DonFromWyoming's picture

ZHers: so what are the actual CB physical gold holdings of China, US, EU, IMF, Germany, et al? By "physical holdings", I mean actually in the possesion of, not rehypotheticated and supposedly sitting in a NY or London vault.

UPDATE:  main article just now updated to provide a non-answer to my question! 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:18 | 4226908 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well...it does say "1% of reserves" so at least that part is right. And I would agree this isn't Venezuela (hyperinflating now) or India (currency collapse) who were last brought in to discuss "the next great golden nation to proceed to go belly up upon seeing their (not so secret) gold strategy realized." In other words "that's a lot of dolares" and one way not to be "forced" to give your dollars away is to buy gold with it.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:40 | 4226822 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Just wait, as the hidden US/Federal Reserve policy to demonetize gold, China is going to thwart that effort.  They're just waiting to drop the hammer at the time when it best suits them.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:51 | 4227517 bombdog
bombdog's picture

Hidden? Just about the world's worst kept secret since 1971 then.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:44 | 4226827 Racer
Racer's picture

Isn't Germany at second place wrong in that table? They don't hold a lot of gold!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:05 | 4227155 Seal
Seal's picture

The US is in the wrong place also! Big time - we got no or very little gold

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 00:28 | 4228377 delacroix
delacroix's picture

where's the mid-east oil producers on that chart?    when the chinese re-state their increased gold holdings, they will still understate the amount.  wasn't dominic strauss kahn complaining that the U S hadn't delivered the gold they pledged to the imf.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:45 | 4226829 CPL
Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:58 | 4226865 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Why do you think its all being recast before delivery ?

I think Wiley has it right,gold backed bills of exchange for international trade, and

fiat for internal consumption.Bypassing their banking problems.

The ,you show me yours, moment could get interesting.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:59 | 4226868 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Sell shit, oh yes, when it comes to buying its going to be 995 at a minimum

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:48 | 4226840 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I have it on very good authority that China is planning on using its massive stock piles of gold, to roll it out into very thin sheets and cover billions and trillions of small rounds of milk chocolate in it.

It then plans on disbursing said gold covered chocolate around the whole world, thereby achieving global world dominance in cullinary perfection of sweetness.

You heard it here first folks.

From a very sound source if I may add.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:26 | 4226925 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

World hunger + world health + world peace all in one tiny round of milk chocolate. Brilliant!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:39 | 4226960 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

;-)

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:49 | 4226842 oak
oak's picture

for current gold price, can anyone blame on them. of course, they are buying like insane and going banana.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:51 | 4226847 mijev
mijev's picture

I just spent a few weeks in china. Generally there's a reasonable amount of knowledge about bitcoin but the average chinese doesn't have money to throw at it. The middle and upper classes though seem to love it. Basically average chinese people love to gamble and bitcoin is probably a perfect fit for that mindset. They also seem to be long term buy and hold investors, especially in real estate and gold and increasingly in bitcoin. Everyone I spoke to about btc caught on very quickly and became fascinated.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:55 | 4226858 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

If you believe the U.S. has 8000 tons of gold you are more gullible than Detroit pensioners.

Silver For The People

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:49 | 4226984 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

We do, probably in the ground.

If there is a crunch, General Premier Nelson Backdoor will Nationalize the Mines.

O/T, but he looked good in Mandela's old Prison Cell. Like he Belonged There.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:57 | 4226861 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Alasdair Macleod: There Is Too Little Gold in the West


 Alasdair Macleod provides a very comprehensive account of what is really happening in the Gold market and why developing world is accumulating Gold right now. China is buying record amount of Gold this year and warns its citizens about the dangers of speculating in the Project Gold 2.0 for 99% - Bitcoin. Bitcoin is taking notice and Bubble is crashing these days. This burst will bring people back to the real values of tangible assets like Gold and Silver. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/alasdair-macleod-there-is-too-little...   "Bitcoin has crashed to $542 low at BitStamp overnight on reports that China Telecom has taken Bitcoin logo down from its web page. It is time to pick another Gold Substitute: Gold 3.0 - Litecoin Gold 4.0 Peercoin and others to chose from 43 listed here. The supply is limited ... only to  your  imagination and money invested in the technology and Pump.   It always boils down to the question: what is it better - to look like idiot before the Bubble burst or after that? China is protecting its citizens and encourages them to accumulate Gold. Gold is holding well today after all positive economic news and Bitcoin bust will ignite the new Gold Bull Leg Up breaking its free of any snake oil competition. Next few days will place this experiment for distraction of 99% from the Real Value into perspective for all involved parties."

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:10 | 4227033 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Personally, I see the possibility that China is purposely inflating their currency and using it to buy gold internationally while keeping their own production. They are trading paper for product. The end game would be a backed currency to upend the USA and the West, in general.

Whether or not we can figure out their game, they do have a plan. Chinese are generally very direct and persistant.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 17:18 | 4227312 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Most likely Chinese officials are encouraging their citizens to buy gold so they can confiscate it from them later.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:00 | 4226866 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yes, but what about BiTchCoin?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:28 | 4226930 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

First I BiTchCoined, then I DiTchCoined. My homie saw me and SniTchCoined, so I got some StiTchCoins.

LifeCoin, full of MysteryCoins...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:31 | 4227206 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

You'll never get Richcoin.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 13:58 | 4226869 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Funny, "World official gold holdings", not ownership.

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:02 | 4227151 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Funny, "World official gold holdings", not ownership.

The Germans don't appear to be laughing, though.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:02 | 4226880 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

What China is doing is making sure we cannot surreptitiously keep devaluing the dollar.

If China keeps up the pressure eventually Mr. Yellen will have to accept a huge price rise in gold or contractionary monetary policy in order to stabilize gold and interest rates and inflationary expectations.

Nice hedge the chinese got going.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:37 | 4227651 Cumulus Nimbus
Cumulus Nimbus's picture

We'll they ain't gettin' all of it. Picking up another 5 oz's tomorrow. Decided to BTFD as an early Christmas present to myself.

Now if I can only get it home without losing it.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:03 | 4226881 h0oS
h0oS's picture

Clearly the Chinese believe bitcoin is a cyber weapon designed to reduce the demand for Precious Metals and have acted accordingly.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:11 | 4226898 starman
starman's picture

I never believed the bible crap about the yellow man and 200,000,000 strong army taking out 1/3 of the world population, but I start becoming a believer! How about you?

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 09:14 | 4228841 CJHames
CJHames's picture

Count on it.  It's all happening right before our very eyes, slowly but surely.  God is in control, and He's never up for re-election.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:19 | 4226909 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

These ZH users may some ounces of gold, and silver, but not an ounce of intelligence.

It feels to most that this site has turned into GodLikeProductions.com v2.0... all sorts to weirdos, but no brains.

Pretty soon, it'll just be retards replying to retards, congratulating themselves on their 'interesting' posts.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:44 | 4226977 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hey, those sites are great for identifying trends.

Now, the veracity of the stories, that's another thing.

Most of the stuff is people making things up to get famous and get clicks on their sites, IMO.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:13 | 4227039 seek
seek's picture

GLP and ATS are federal government operations, ZH has nothing in common with them.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:21 | 4227602 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

And here you are, never once posting anything remotely intelligent, just griping about how stupid everybody else is. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:22 | 4226914 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

We will look back on this time and ask why we did not sell everything, house included and buy physical gold and silver.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:26 | 4226923 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> why we did not sell everything, house included and buy physical gold and silver.

There are people that did, at $1,700, $1,800, $1,900.  You might want to chat with some of those folks and see what they now think of the wisdom of their move was.  Check out Turds place and you'll find a few of them.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:33 | 4226943 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I did at $1300. I will never question it even if it goes to ZERO. I made up my mind never to live in fear again. It's was worth every last fiat !!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:10 | 4227521 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

After every equivocation, after every corner has been paced by the panther in the cage in Rilke's poem, you need to emerge with a story for yourself and get on the road and stay on it.

Here is mine: You buy gold or silver bullion where they are right now and in 3-5 years you will at least be OK if not very well.  I cannot say the same for stocks or RE or cash sitting in cash.  If I had to, I would rank cash second behind Au and Ag bullion for a 3-5 year hold.  Not a distant second, but 2nd.  The other 2 are by and large overbought.

"Does a firm persuasion that a thing is so, make it so?" He replied, "All poets believe it does. And in ages of imagination, this firm persuasion removes mountains; but many are not capable of firm persuasion of anything." -- Wm. Blake from his interview with Ezekial (!)

Now I am loaded pretty good with miners and a few ETFs and not feeling good about those.  I think I fucked up badly there.  But if the wheels really come off and the eels start coming out of the walls and nationalizing mines and so forth, or forcing them into BK, that will help bullion prices.

Another possibility is the US makes sales and transactions in Au or Ag illegal on US soil - but that would drive the price as well.  I don't give that much of a chance because that would roil things just when they have succeeded in deadening their constituents against PMs as well as making it impossible for most of them to protect themselves by buying it.  

The Fed is a damned menace, a cancer on the state.

We may also see the Chinese coming over here not for our RE or our antiques or our seafood, but for our gold because there eventually may be none to be had in China.  Right now the PRC elites are not buying gold, they are not asking about it, they are not swarming the coin shows in California like they are the Asian Art auctions.  If that changes course, stand by.

Which brings us back to do; from here on out I am buying bullion as long as it is crammed down here at mining all-in costs.

If I am wrong I will go make a cup of tea, spark a pipe of hash, laugh and Thank God I do not have to do this for a living.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:15 | 4227927 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Good points re Au, Ag, and cash.

Which brings us back to do; from here on out I am buying bullion as long as it is crammed down here at mining all-in costs.

Makes sense. It's like having your own gold and silver mine as close as your local coin store, without all the worries and red tape involved in actually running a mine.

If I am wrong I will go make a cup of tea, spark a pipe of hash, laugh and Thank God I do not have to do this for a living.

Amen.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:29 | 4227480 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

People who understand that gold is insurance shouldn't give a damn what price they bought it at.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:27 | 4226917 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

Peter Schiff... gold is better than bitcoin because... "well you can at least melt your gold and make bowl or a spoon". What a stupid fuck turd.

First, you would need like 10-15 ounces of gold to make a bowl, and skills, experience, and a foundry to melt that shit. What a fucken retard.

That is the best he could come up with... use your gold to make dishes... wow...

Gold has intrinsic value already... to attract retards to buy it on the pitch, that well you can't make more of it.... but fukers, there's tons of it lining the ocean floor.

We got robots coming soon. Drones that will do the mining. Gold prices will get under pressure again.

 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:47 | 4227117 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

me thinks the drones should clean up fukushima before they begin mining gold.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:35 | 4227494 bombdog
bombdog's picture

You're a Bitcoiner aren't you? Away you go and play Warcraft or something. It's a Sunday, you have nothing to do, why not go and have a wank? Leave us in peace.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:46 | 4227674 Cumulus Nimbus
Cumulus Nimbus's picture

Ha ha bomb dog! Thanks for the laugh. You ZHers crack me up!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:23 | 4227615 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Jesus, for somebody who's always bitching about how stupid everybody else is, your spelling is fucking atrocious.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:25 | 4226919 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Any thoughts on Gold confiscation in the U.S. ? If the world settles trade in Gold it would become a matter of Natioal Security. At least that's what Obama would claim on the radio waves.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:30 | 4226929 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

Yah, you and your crew of questioners... always want answers.... never using your own mind to reason. USA will take all your shit bitch. You don't know the law and cannot defend your rights. You also don't have enought money to hire a good lawyer. So you're fuked. Just bend down and let Obamacare insert itself in your anus.

The world will never return to a gold standard. Period. The Charter of the Central Banks prohibity any CB to issue Bank Notes with the backing of a commodity.

But you're already at buying gold... skipped a few classes did you...like the rest of these brain damaged ZH posters...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:41 | 4226968 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Nothing helps to spread a message more effectively than spewing vitriol and ad hominem attacks. 

Excellent strategy choice.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:55 | 4227001 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

Finally, someone that gets its.

Everyone here is fucken dumb, and the dumb defend the dumber.

Intelligence, can't buy that with gold. But stupid, well just keep drinking that GMO maize syrup cola, clock in 30+hours of TV a week, and voila, you have 95% of ZH's audience demographic.

Kiddies that come here for answers.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:33 | 4227089 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Ummmmmmm.  Are you fucking retarded?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:41 | 4227103 joego1
joego1's picture

Why are you spending your time trying to convince the minority that gold is worthless? You must have doubts about something? What is it thats holding you down magnet boobs?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:40 | 4227500 bombdog
bombdog's picture

His Bitcoin is worrying him. Must have sold all his porn and his Playstation and bought into bitcoin at the top.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:57 | 4227009 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

ZeroHege, you're either with Stupid, or against us. Circa 2013

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:28 | 4227475 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

To my fucked up friend, many .bulls collect three metals, au, Ag, and Pb. The future will be a scary place in America.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:43 | 4226973 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Well, I have no PMs to confiscate.

I had to sell all mine to get CommieCare.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 16:11 | 4227164 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Any thoughts on Gold confiscation in the U.S. ?

I don't think it'll ever happen. They'd seize all the 401k accounts and rescind Social Security first. Even if they did try it, it would be ignored like it was under FDR.

If the world settles trade in Gold it would become a matter of Natioal Security.

Nobody would care. More people are figuring out that National Security® is just an expensive brand of high-gloss paint used to cover lies.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:37 | 4226953 Fight-Club
Fight-Club's picture

China can increase its money supply without causing inflation by selling gold coins with a Yuan face value.  Its a smart way to achieve a sufficient money supply so the Yuan can serve as a reserve currency.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:39 | 4226959 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

You are full a bull excrement. You can't back that up. The RCM is already issuing gold coins with CAD denominations.. there's no example or empircal evidence to support your bunk.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:56 | 4227006 Fight-Club
Fight-Club's picture

A person trading in Yuan for a face value gold coin doubles the money supply with no inflation.  Think before you reply, sir.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:37 | 4226958 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I wonder what Germany is thinking right about now ???

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:40 | 4226964 magnetic_silver...
magnetic_silver_ideas's picture

Germany is a nation. It doesn't think. The Germans are not thinking of this minor shit.

Germans were the fools, with their money... and everyone knows how that ends.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:41 | 4226966 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hey, loan us 7 tons and you can get the rest from The Fed; we'll pay you 1% commission.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 14:46 | 4226985 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

China is acting with good common sense, trying to convert part of their fiat foreign currency [read dollars, euros] into real assets, gold.

If you take even a superficial look at the USA and it's reserve currency dollar, you would KNOW that continuing to hold trillions of them as your nation's money reserves is insane!  I do not need to rehash the money printing or the debt situation behind the entire USA economy. The fake stock market or the fake housing bubble.

China and Russia both are trying to exit the dollar, but to do it slow enough as to not crash the system. Every green slip of paper that can be used to buy solid gold is a win for these non-dollar nations. The ONLY reason they are able to begin to exit the dollar and not be subjected to military attack by the USA and NATO is that both nations hold a robust nuclear option. Using this as a shield, they are being sensible and looking after their own national interests. Gold is in their interests, getting as far from the US power base, i.e. the US Dollar as world reserve currency.

This will continue. Most people in the west have been put to sleep by the money printing economic recovery. I admit, they have papered over the collapse, and some days even I believe that the economy is back to normal and into stable growth, but underneath that money printing, the whole base of the real economy and our debt levels show the true rot.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:07 | 4227731 Cumulus Nimbus
Cumulus Nimbus's picture

Good comment Jack. I think that about sums it up.

As for almost believing in the recovery, I know what you mean. I was in town today with the missus for the first time in 6 months. The place was bunged with people spending money on crap they don't need.

Everything, and I mean everything I looked at was made in China, and I'm thinking, they're selling us cheap tat and buying our gold. I wonder what this place will look like when that trade comes to an end?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 15:02 | 4227015 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The East is litterally taking the US in exchange for all the cheap shit in Walmart, Target, BestBuy, etc. The East will end up with all the assets they want and a bunch of people they don't, if you know what I mean.

"Sure, killing the Golden Goose is fine if you can take all of the golden eggs and 'return'."

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