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Japan Press: "China-Japan War To Break Out In January"

Tyler Durden's picture


Following China's unveiling of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, overlapping a large expanse of territory also claimed by Japan, the Japanese media has, as The Japan Times reports, had a dramatically visceral reaction on the various scenarios of a shooting war. From Sunday Mainichi's "Sino-Japanese war to break out in January," to Flash's "Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus," the nationalism (that Kyle Bass so notably commented on) is rising. Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai ominously, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin has begun.

Via The Japan Times,

Five out of nine weekly magazines that went on sale last Monday and Tuesday contained scenarios that raised the possibility of a shooting war.




First, let’s take Flash (Dec. 17), which ran a “Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus,” with Mamoru Sato, a former Air Self-Defense Force general, providing editorial supervision. Flash’s scenario has the same tense tone as a Clancy novel, including dialog. On a day in August 2014, a radar operator instructs patrolling F-15J pilots to “scramble north” at an altitude of 65,000 feet to intercept a suspected intruder and proceeds from there.


Sunday Mainichi (Dec. 15) ran an article headlined “Sino-Japanese war to break out in January.” Political reporter Takao Toshikawa tells the magazine that the key to what happens next will depend on China’s economy.


“The economic situation in China is pretty rough right now, and from the start of next year it’s expected to worsen,” says Toshikawa. “The real-estate boom is headed for a total collapse and the economic disparities between the costal regions and the interior continue to widen. I see no signs that the party’s Central Committee is getting matters sorted out.”


An unnamed diplomatic source offered the prediction that the Chinese might very well set off an incident “accidentally on purpose”: “I worry about the possibility they might force down a civilian airliner and hold the passengers hostage,” he suggested.


In an article described as a “worst-case simulation,” author Osamu Eya expressed concerns in Shukan Asahi Geino (Dec. 12) that oil supertankers bound for Japan might be targeted.


“Japan depends on sea transport for oil and other material resources,” said Eya. “If China were to target them, nothing could be worse to contemplate.”


In an air battle over the Senkakus, the Geino article continues, superiority of radar communications would be a key factor in determining the outcome. Japanese forces have five fixed radar stations in Kyushu and four in Okinawa. China would certainly target these, which would mean surrounding communities would also be vulnerable.


One question that seems to be on almost everybody’s mind is, will the U.S. military become involved?


Shukan Gendai (Dec. 14) speculated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping might issue an order for a Japanese civilian airliner to be shot down. As a result of this, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier would come to Japan’s aid and send up fighters to contend with the Chinese.


Unlike Japan, the U.S. military would immediately respond to a radar lock-on threat by shooting down the Chinese planes,” asserts military analyst Mitsuhiro Sera. “It would naturally regard an aircraft flying overhead as hostile. They would shoot at it even if that were to risk discrediting the Obama administration.”


“With the creation of Japan’s National Security Council on Dec. 4, Japan-U.S. solidarity meets a new era,” an unnamed diplomatic source told Shukan Gendai. “If a clash were to occur between the U.S. and China, it would be natural for the Self-Defense Forces to provide backup assistance. This was confirmed at the ‘two-plus-two’ meeting on Oct. 3.”


“China is bent on wresting the Senkakus away from Japan, and if Japan dispatches its Self-Defense Forces, China will respond with naval and air forces,” Saburo Takai predicts in Flash. “In the case of an incursion by irregular forces, that would make it more difficult for the U.S. to become involved. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs would protest through diplomatic channels, but China would attempt to present its takeover as a fait accompli.


“China fears a direct military confrontation with the U.S.,” Takai adds. “A few days ago, two U.S. B-52s transited the ADIZ claimed by China, but the flights were not for any vague purpose. I suppose the Chinese tracked the flights on their radar, but the B-52s have electronic detection functions that can identify radar frequencies, wavelength and source of the signals. These flights are able to lay bare China’s air defense systems. It really hits home to the Chinese that they can’t project their military power.”


Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin.

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Sun, 12/08/2013 - 17:55 | 4227382 monkeyboy
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Thanks for the heads up.


Will postpone my radioactive snow boarding trip & head elsewhere's this season.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:05 | 4227415 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Don't these two countries have enough problems to content with without adding a war to the mix? Oh wait... I see what you did there. Clever.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:09 | 4227428 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

this development is extremely bullish for bitcoin!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:16 | 4227439 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Somebody just had to do it, didn't they?

Commence comment thread pollution thicker than Shanghai air.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:21 | 4227458 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You'll know its a serious mattering thing when BitObama proclaims another redline.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:29 | 4227477 CClarity
CClarity's picture

When printing doesn't fix economic challenges, war does. This plan was attempted in the 30s as your history lessons will recall.
This time Rising Sun may also refer to rising radiation.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:36 | 4227492 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

one bunker buster on reactor #4 = shortest war in history....also shortest gloating period.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:45 | 4227509 malikai
malikai's picture

LOL at people taking this nonsense seriously.

"force down an airliner and take hostages"


Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:52 | 4227522 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

When it comes to organised violence... The West is best.

Always has been, always will be.

China would lose any war.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:06 | 4227554 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"one bunker buster on reactor #4"

That'll never happen.. China is not North Korea..

Besides, a few M-80's would probably be adequate to topple that tilting swimming pool in the sky. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:29 | 4227601 mjcOH1
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" Unlike Japan, the U.S. military would immediately respond to a radar lock-on threat by shooting down the Chinese planes,” asserts military analyst Mitsuhiro Sera. “It would naturally regard an aircraft flying overhead as hostile. They would shoot at it even if that were to risk discrediting the Obama administration.”

I suspect someone will disappointed to learn otherwise.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:30 | 4227640 autofixer
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Its not like we haven't shot down an A300 full of people before. 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:11 | 4227746 kliguy38
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WHAT? THEY already gave up on Bread and Circus and now wanna serve us the "main course"..........

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:16 | 4227929 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

maybe "January" means something different in Japanese? you know "year 4324 in your Roman tongue" or something like that.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:37 | 4227954 LetThemEatRand
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No, it means the same thing.  But they put an extra "r" before the "u".  Janruary.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:31 | 4228129 old naughty
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Didn't long-face who just visited China (and UKPM too) said in July peace in the holy land in 9 months...

so war and peace all in Q1-2014, hummmmm.

Must be the not-yet-dead Ison bringing down burning rocks on us, no?

Hey, they found a planet 10 times the size of Jupiter circling around its host sun 30+ times the distance our Neptune is. (Considered ultra unlikely here before)

Well, ...

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:51 | 4228179 markmotive
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Both China and Japan have an aging demographic. So what future generations are going to pay for a war?

Anyone thinking of entering war should learn from history. Peak war costs occur decades after the shooting stops.


Mon, 12/09/2013 - 06:25 | 4228714 Lore
Lore's picture

No need for all this "war" nonsense.  Just stop listening to dishonest men. 

Order outta chaos... Bitchez.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 07:51 | 4228772 GetZeeGold
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It's time to go old school.......break out the ninjas......and let's get it on!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:36 | 4228139 akak
akak's picture

That is collect!

You are very light.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:38 | 4228143 Son of Loki
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Pearl Harbor, Part II

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 23:06 | 4228219 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

one problem with war is "it's never like the last one." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIliB436370 and no "you don't need a bunker buster to take down Building 4." a sonic boom would probably do the trick right now.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 04:56 | 4228683 Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

I like to see, you guys like these fantasy war-games.

Personally I think the US government will chicken out 1st. Why?

Because he is behind the Abe's foreign policy, so China may say in January, "We may be forced sell all of our 10 year US treasury notes at once , because we need finance that war". China is very well aware, of that fact who is pushing Japan into this conflict (China is not that naive as the US government thinks).

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:26 | 4228115 hunglow
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I was there.  Were you.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:55 | 4228026 El Tuco
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Yeah..if I recall didn't the Chinese force down a US Military plane and hold the crew hostage for a few weeks while demanding an apoligy from Bush? I don't think America has it in her to pick a fight with someone who might not beat her but surely could cause some serious problems for her friends (i.e. Japan, Korea, etc).

Best to sit quietly and let Japan take it in the nuts....

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:20 | 4228095 old naughty
old naughty's picture

b,b,but...Japan had taken it in the nuts (eh. guts perhaps) on 311.

All the commotions (including shooting next) are to re-direct desperation feeling away from fuk-u (Yes, I feel for the world too).

"...bunker buster on reactor #4..." (if this or that happen) could shift the blames (temporarily) from one local .gov to a foreign one.

It will likely result in another ww (so you wonder if Japan isn't back against the wall already?)

One way or the other, the rising sun WILL SET !!!  (You wonder if they see it in the charts...)

I pray for the 130 million brothers who have been placed on the altar.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:38 | 4228142 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

We have some pretty cool-headed pilots.  I doubt there would be a shoot-down without orders.

Remember our last publicized encounter


Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:44 | 4228064 Professor Fate
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Jeez, I wish I had some M-80s, Manthong.  There was a time I wouldn't leave the house without a few M-80s or Cherry Bombs in my pocket.  They always came in so handy.

Fate the Magnificnet
"Push the Button, Max"

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 02:06 | 4228533 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Can't buy them now..... all you can get are oversized firecrackers.  Thank our protectors at Homeland Security.   Just think of what a terrorist could do with a gross of M-80's.....bwahaaaaa.....

hell, the stuff kids did 40 years ago would get you prosecuted for as a terrorist today - I remember one moron who basically built a pipe bomb and set it off attached to a propane tank - just to see what would happen.....  what happened is he almost killed himself, left a nice big crater in a local golf course and left people thinking there had been a 3.4 earthquake..... all thanks to readily available M-80's.........

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:36 | 4227976 indygo55
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The way I understand it a pea shooter will topple reactor #4 .

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:36 | 4227979 Kassandra
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Excellent way to take care of Fukuppy!

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:01 | 4228036 kridkrid
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Did you call?

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 23:53 | 4228320 e_goldstein
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So, when you gonna hatch? When do we get to see what's inside?

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 11:13 | 4229069 zerozulu
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In case of Japan it is "Breaking bad" Nippon style.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 18:30 | 4227482 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Not to worry.

Obamacare will save us.

And, the FSA will defend our freedumbs.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 06:39 | 4228727 screw face
screw face's picture

Ogeiger has red line to #Fukushima ya mean, ......the big boys know what the fix is.


Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:05 | 4227553 fonestar
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Why are you trying to bring Bitcoin into this?  I am already handling sixteen threads on multiple websites.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:28 | 4227636 gtb
gtb's picture

Now that's funny.  Maybe you're not a total asshole.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 19:54 | 4227689 LetThemEatRand
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He's 21, maybe younger.  His favorite metaphors involve videogames.  He's probably a decent guy who has just a few years of adulthood under his belt but thinks he has it all figured out.   I hope he makes a zillion dollars on BitCoin.  Better than Jamie Dimon banking another Bill.  Or he's NSA or a Goldman/JPM plant to pump and dump.  In which case I hope he is eaten by ants.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:11 | 4227747 akak
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For as often as we have disagreed in the past, LTER, I am in 1000% agreement with you in this post.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:20 | 4227765 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Did everyone miss the post where he said he was trolling 18 other sites spreading his version of the BitCoin bible?

Sure sounds like a pump and dump to me.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:30 | 4227794 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Probably.  I'll spring for the honey.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 02:13 | 4228541 fonestar
fonestar's picture

According to you boneheads I should sell the best performing part of my portfolio and replace it with items that will only see a rise in value when the whole world blows up and go crazy.  It's not that I wouldn't hire you as an asset manager, it's just that I don't think anyone would hire you at all (take advice from the winners).

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 03:41 | 4228643 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

portfolio? sure? I had the impression it was more a holy book or something

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:34 | 4227799 fonestar
fonestar's picture

"He's 21, maybe younger."


In the p-world I am 35.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 20:58 | 4227875 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

So you are in marketing?  I guess I'm hoping for the ants, then.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 21:17 | 4227928 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...give it another ten to twenty BitYears and you'll wise up kiddo

Hopefully (for you) on the outside of physical bars.

Just sayin, dou entendre intended ;-)

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 06:50 | 4228732 Clashfan
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Nmewn is a 911 truth denier. One has to wonder if he's also a fart denier.

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 22:02 | 4228044 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

35 yo (P-world) = chronological age

IQ = 60

Mental age = 60/100 x 35 = 21

LTER is correct! 21 yo mentally 

Sun, 12/08/2013 - 23:14 | 4228233 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Math still seems superior than in Summation form...

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