This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Japan Press: "China-Japan War To Break Out In January"
Following China's unveiling of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, overlapping a large expanse of territory also claimed by Japan, the Japanese media has, as The Japan Times reports, had a dramatically visceral reaction on the various scenarios of a shooting war. From Sunday Mainichi's "Sino-Japanese war to break out in January," to Flash's "Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus," the nationalism (that Kyle Bass so notably commented on) is rising. Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai ominously, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin has begun.
Five out of nine weekly magazines that went on sale last Monday and Tuesday contained scenarios that raised the possibility of a shooting war.
...
First, let’s take Flash (Dec. 17), which ran a “Simulated breakout of war over the Senkakus,” with Mamoru Sato, a former Air Self-Defense Force general, providing editorial supervision. Flash’s scenario has the same tense tone as a Clancy novel, including dialog. On a day in August 2014, a radar operator instructs patrolling F-15J pilots to “scramble north” at an altitude of 65,000 feet to intercept a suspected intruder and proceeds from there.
Sunday Mainichi (Dec. 15) ran an article headlined “Sino-Japanese war to break out in January.” Political reporter Takao Toshikawa tells the magazine that the key to what happens next will depend on China’s economy.
“The economic situation in China is pretty rough right now, and from the start of next year it’s expected to worsen,” says Toshikawa. “The real-estate boom is headed for a total collapse and the economic disparities between the costal regions and the interior continue to widen. I see no signs that the party’s Central Committee is getting matters sorted out.”
An unnamed diplomatic source offered the prediction that the Chinese might very well set off an incident “accidentally on purpose”: “I worry about the possibility they might force down a civilian airliner and hold the passengers hostage,” he suggested.
In an article described as a “worst-case simulation,” author Osamu Eya expressed concerns in Shukan Asahi Geino (Dec. 12) that oil supertankers bound for Japan might be targeted.
“Japan depends on sea transport for oil and other material resources,” said Eya. “If China were to target them, nothing could be worse to contemplate.”
In an air battle over the Senkakus, the Geino article continues, superiority of radar communications would be a key factor in determining the outcome. Japanese forces have five fixed radar stations in Kyushu and four in Okinawa. China would certainly target these, which would mean surrounding communities would also be vulnerable.
One question that seems to be on almost everybody’s mind is, will the U.S. military become involved?
Shukan Gendai (Dec. 14) speculated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping might issue an order for a Japanese civilian airliner to be shot down. As a result of this, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier would come to Japan’s aid and send up fighters to contend with the Chinese.
“Unlike Japan, the U.S. military would immediately respond to a radar lock-on threat by shooting down the Chinese planes,” asserts military analyst Mitsuhiro Sera. “It would naturally regard an aircraft flying overhead as hostile. They would shoot at it even if that were to risk discrediting the Obama administration.”
“With the creation of Japan’s National Security Council on Dec. 4, Japan-U.S. solidarity meets a new era,” an unnamed diplomatic source told Shukan Gendai. “If a clash were to occur between the U.S. and China, it would be natural for the Self-Defense Forces to provide backup assistance. This was confirmed at the ‘two-plus-two’ meeting on Oct. 3.”
“China is bent on wresting the Senkakus away from Japan, and if Japan dispatches its Self-Defense Forces, China will respond with naval and air forces,” Saburo Takai predicts in Flash. “In the case of an incursion by irregular forces, that would make it more difficult for the U.S. to become involved. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs would protest through diplomatic channels, but China would attempt to present its takeover as a fait accompli.
“China fears a direct military confrontation with the U.S.,” Takai adds. “A few days ago, two U.S. B-52s transited the ADIZ claimed by China, but the flights were not for any vague purpose. I suppose the Chinese tracked the flights on their radar, but the B-52s have electronic detection functions that can identify radar frequencies, wavelength and source of the signals. These flights are able to lay bare China’s air defense systems. It really hits home to the Chinese that they can’t project their military power.”
Which side, wonders Shukan Gendai, will respond to a provocation by pulling the trigger? The game of chicken between two great superpowers is about to begin.
»
- 70768 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Do real SuperPowers hire/rent faux muslims (terrorists ) to destabilise sovereign nations?
yawn...
The horses are on the track. And they are off .....in 2014
Sweet. Now all we need is Russia aligning itself with China, threating to cut off all natural gas to Europe, and the US will back down (again) and watch the Chinese obliterate the Japanese.
And just why would Russia do that? Russia knows China is a major threat to its eastern territories, while Europe is no threat at all. Russia will act in its own interests, not someone else's.
I am going to have a look at the futures.
Let's see how this shattering development has played on the futes.
I am guessing SP up .13%, oil up $.58 and gold - $13.
. . .
S&P up .10
Oil up$.23 a barrel
Gold down 3 bucks
NOTHINGBURGER
It's the Hugh Hendry's of the world now going all in...
Utterly frightening.
Am I missing something?
When did Japan become a Super Power?
There is no rational motivation on either side, so honest reporters of the situation would be concentrating on the irrational, ie. profiles of those who have access to the triggers....
all else is bullshit, and the world is weary of it, and those who push it.
Communists of a feather flock together.
Woe to Japan...the enemy of my enemy is too risky to be friends with.
Bullish for Au & Ag.
Uh, wait a sec...
The Japs are flat broke, they're aging, they all have some sort of radiation poisioning, their once-iconic companies like Sony and Toyota now make crap, and they don't have squat for a military.
This ain't exactly the 1930s.
Sounds like they're willing to start it, and then expect Uncle sensai Sam-san to finish it.
Uh, that's how WWI started.
If China goes to a little war, do Walmart shoppers have higher prices?
Now We get to the real crux of the matter, Che Bono?
Very macabre comments, but with a new twist: and apologies to all.
China: Remember the (Alamo) Rape of Nanching!
Japan: So what if we go to (nuclear) war! Fukashima hasn't been that bad!
As an after thought:
When I was in Philippines, I bought the Japanese made winch (to haul boats out of the water) because the one that was made in China had a crack already in the casing.
I just bought a Yaesu8X -DR quad band hand held transceiver at $500 over the cheaper Xuojuan (sp?)made in China.
Don't count Japan out, but all in all, just a lot of bluster aimed at seeing what US will do.
China has been preparing for sinking US carriers with their newer supersonic missiles for many years.
It'll happen sooner or later.
China is the Japan of the 1930's. Maybe even better because China took over industry and technology from the US.
The US now relies on China. US politicians sold out to China long ago.
Correction. The U.S. gave it's industry and technology to China.
We swapped it out for higher quarterly proffits and a presidential library for Slick Willie.
The BitWashington BitD.C. Bitglobalists and the BitDepartment of BitHomeland BitSecurity BitCoinwill Bitprotect Bitme.
China could invade Fukushima and Japan might let them keep it.
The wars shall be economically driven.
With the inability of the Chinese and Japanese to shift GDP growth reliance from exports to domestic consumption, war will be a last resort by putting government spending in the drivers seat and force their people to consume.
Japan can achieve their inflation target with war and China their growth.
These japs mentioned in above article just came back from Fukushima, never mind.
I have heard it said, but can't in anyway prove, that Japan would need only a week or so to assemble nuclear weapons. I believe all the parts are already machined and the nuclear material is stored. All that is needed is to bring the two together. At this point, I would not doubt the two are on the same site and at a minutes notice the bombs could receive the materials to complete a few dozen. This means delivery means exist as well. Perhaps medium range surface to surface, we know for a fact that US supplied Cruise Missiles have a nuclear capability. China does not have Russian S-400 or TOR M-2 as far as I know, so a Japanese missile strike would likely arrive on target.
It is just for the reason of Chinese, Japanese, North Korean tensions that Russia's far eastern border area with NK and facing out across the Sea of Japan is where the very first operational S-400 missile system were sent with the active and passive air defense radars.
Japan has been in the western sphere of influence for a long time. Any thing they have done recently or are about to do has been sanctioned.
smoke em' if you got em' bitchez!
US long bond auctions this week will receive an A++ from Santelli.
Japan is no condition to go to war with anyone other that her own people.
China has been stoking tensions and promoting ultra-nationalism for some time now. Japan has been asked to play counter-foil. Australia is beefing up it's defense capacity as well. A shooting war would not have to escalate into atomics since there is no purpose in their use, but this being said, warfare is quite useful to move game pieces.
Predators of the world, despoilers of all, after they have run out of land, they invade the sea: if an enemy is rich, they are greedy, if he is poor, they are avid for glory. The East does not satisfy them, nor the West: they alone desire all wealth and all want with equal passion. To steal, to slaughter, to rape they falsely name ‘empire’ and when they create a wasteland they call it ‘peace'.
— Tacitus
Nice quote, so I looked up and read a little Tacitus, I think I'll use this as my slogan for politics:
"And so between the enmity of the one and the servility of the other, neither had any regard for posterity."
-Tacitus
I have a hard time believing that a few small islands and submerged rocks are going to interrupt the Wall Mart supply chain. China has not finished making us their bitch yet. But once they do perhaps then any old rock will do.
"First China Default Seen as Record $427 Billion Debt Due"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-09/first-default-seen-as-record-427-billion-debt-due-china-credit.html
"People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s signal the central bank will act to prevent excessive leverage has contributed to the surge in borrowing costs and forced many firms to delay financing plans. Rising interest rates may cause a “partial debt crisis to explode,” the official China Securities Journal said in a Nov. 26 editorial.
“The probability of default will get much higher in 2014 as maturing debt reaches a record,” "
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/could-we-see-china-s-first-corporate-default-MKihcDALTLa5IfEEEKVzRw.html
I wish zerohedge would remind and restate Of this conflict that it is about fracking the region. More destructive deep sea fracking rights. Ecocide for energy. This fracking story is also dehydrating life in America. Disconnecting over 68 billion gallons of water a year since 2007.
"Sunday Mainichi's "Sino-Japanese war to break out in January," Funny but I can't for the life of me find this quote... anyfuckingwhere.
"Five out of nine weekly magazines that went on sale last Monday and Tuesday contained scenarios that raised the possibility of a shooting war."
These "weekly magazines" are what we in the west (I'm back home now) would call "gossip rags" - but for old men. Hardly the wellspring of journalistic integrity.
Japan reminds me of a kid I once knew many years ago back in my high school days. He was the classic 98lbs weakling, but cocky as a rooster, and no one liked him. In fact, he was despised. But no one ever dared to cross him, let alone lay a hand on him either. And for one very good reason. His mother worked at the local Bureau of Motor Vehicles, and was employed there as the test examiner. You remember, that person who took you out for the road test part of it all. It was she who would ultimately decide who got a drivers license, and more importantly, who didn't. Seeing how getting a drivers license is the most important thing in life to a teenager {or at least it used to be}, he got away with things that would have gotten the shit kicked out of anybody else. And he played it for all it was worth too. This is what Japan is trying to do. Except China already has their drivers license. Rude awakening ahead for Japan.
So this is what Zerohedge does to a mans world view. It is a sad realization.
So is the USA acting as Japan's mother?
Has been since 1945.
That is a funny story!
Well that escalated quickly...
They're not going to war over this. It's too soon and it doesn't make sense. This is all a distraction from something.
We need to figure out what that something is.
An incident that gets rid of the fukushima problem. How? A limited tit for tat engagement wherein the bombs land on the fukushima complex, chinese vengance for america's coming to the defence of japan.
This is sort of like how 911 helped solve the asbestos abatement problem faced by Dick Cheney's employer over the white elephant trade center. No fuss just blast the shit out of it, make an aircraft carrier out of the wreckage. The pollutant gets "distributed" sort of like how we distribute industrial waste down fracking rat holes.
You see you use one problem to solve another and gain political leverage in the process. So what if the untermensch get a few more cancers... wait, there's and investment opportunity there!
Oh too bad about the sea life, it'll come back in a couple thousand years.
Now that we know this from Japan News:
We are in possession of Japanese State Secrets.....We are ALL GUILTY and must ALL report to a Japanese Prison immediately for 10 years!!
Why wait till January. It's not as if the Japanese or the Chinese celebrate Christmas. Or is it so because those who are pushing behind the scenes in the west want to have a trouble free Christmas period before getting back to work in January?
In the event of a war between China and Japan, I'd expect mayhem in China. Unlike the Japanese, who are easily brainwashed and mobilised under fascism, the Chinese are like sand: they'll never unite for a war at this stage; they'll riot and tear each other apart in no time. China is too diverse and its peoples, despite the totalitarian regime, are far less compliant.
That's why China's current regime will never take any initiative to wage war with Japan, believe me. What we're witnessing is just is a mix of "saving-face" bullying, stupidity and miscalculation, as they still have a very naive and unsophisticated view of the outside world.
Japan's is a much more cunning, calculating regime, with a far more insidious and dangerous agenda. They're the ones to fear, as they're desperate and badly need a war, and are very good at playing the victim card.
Let's just hope China doesn't take the bait.
There will not be war between China and Japan.
Fellow Proles, let us rise up as One in defence of our Valiant Ally in EastAsia - and smite the Red Dragon that threatens to scorch the whole earth (.....by ditching the US Dollar).
Last time I checked, Bass was a money manager and not a foreign policy expert. Aside from his weighing in on the subject, there are obvious hidden interests from the western powers to provoke such an event. Although china/japan have a very dark past, they have many common interests so having a hot war is not something any side would take lightly. Wahington and the real power brokers no doubt want it to destablize the region, but again its grasping at straws.
Lets say they go to war, where would Japan buy weapons from? US I guess and would they take JPY? I don't think so. Japan has no resources to say of, as they import most of their raw materials, so whats left? They don't have much gold for payment. Unless they can conquer china which they obviously cannot as history has show and unless the Japanese army has just grown 100 fold, they have no advantage both tactical or strategic to show. On the other hand the PLA is the world largest army and their military abilities far outweight Japans post WWII scouts.
Go figure about this BS being spread to trigger some skirmish.
Who is this jack ass? Who comes up with this crap?
Shooting down civilians / airliners?? Common.......
just curious, who thinks Japan could win a war against China? I mean, if they actually went to war could Japan actually prevail? Without the US or with it? Would it not be like Singapore going to war against Russia?