Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week
The US data flow is relatively light which is typical of a post-payrolls week but it’s worth noting wholesale inventories on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday. Importantly US House and senate negotiators are supposed to come to an agreement on a budget before the December 13th deadline. A lot of optimism has been expressed thus far from members of congress, and there are reports that a budget deal will be unveiled this week.
This week there are eight central bank meetings - Switzerland, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, Chile and Peru - although consensus does not expect any changes to monetary policy stances to be announced, with all eyes on the almighty Fed and its FOMC announcement next week, where 37% of economists expect the Fed will begin tapering up from 20% a month ago. After the US data, markets will likely focus more on Fed speakers again, to gauge the likelihood of an early tapering in December or January. Three Fed speakers are scheduled to speak today including Lacker, Bullard and Fisher. The week is going to be relatively light in terms of economic releases. At the beginning there will be a usual set of China data. The week also brings inflation data from the Euro Area countries.
Monday, Dec 9
- US Fed Speakers: Bullard (FOMC voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter), Lacker (FOMC non-voter)
- Israel MPC minutes
- Germany IP (Oct): consensus +3.1%yoy, previous +1.0%yoy
- Hungary Trade Balance (Oct, prelim.): consensus EUR+725.0mn, previous EUR+830.3mn
- Taiwan Trade Balance (Nov): consensus USD+3.5bn, previous USD+3.5bn
- Chile Trade Balance (Nov): consensus USD+200mn, previous USD+241mn
- Also interesting: Canada Housing Starts (Nov), Mexico INPC Headline Inflation (Nov)
Tuesday, Dec 10
- China IP (Nov): Consensus +10.1%yoy, previous +10.3%yoy
- China Retail Sales (Nov): Consensus +13.2%yoy, previous +13.3%yoy
- China Fixed Asset Investment (Nov): Consensus +20.1%yoy, previous +20.1%yoy
- Japan Consumer Confidence (Nov): consensus 44.0, previous 41.2
- UK IP (Oct): GS +3.2%yoy, Previous +2.2%yoy
- UK Trade Balance (Oct): Previous GBP-3.3bn
- India Trade Balance (Nov): Previous USD-10.6bn yoy
- Czech Republic Trade Balance (Oct): consensus CZK+37.5bn, previous CZK+35.1bn
- Turkey GDP (Q3): Cconsensus +4.2%yoy, previous +4.4%yoy
- Also interesting: Ukraine GDP (Q3), Italy IP (Oct), Sweden IP (Oct)
Wednesday, Dec 11
- New Zealand MPC: Consensus has cash rate unchanged at 2.50%.
- South Korea MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 2.50%yoy
- Japan Machinery Orders (Oct): +0.6%mom
- US Federal Budget Balance (Nov): consensus USD-148.3bn, previous USD-91.6bn
- Germany Harmonised CPI (Nov, final): consensus +1.6%yoy, previous +1.6%yoy (flash)
- Turkey CA Balance (Oct): consensus USD-3.0bn, previous USD-3.3bn
- Also interesting: South Africa CPI (Nov), Malaysia IP (Oct)
Thursday, Dec 12
- Switzerland MPC: Consensus has 3-month Libor target rate unchanged at 0.00%.
- Philippines MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 3.50%yoy
- Chile MPC: Consensus have overnight rate target unchanged at 4.50%
- Peru MPC: Consensus have policy rate unchanged at 4.00%.
- US Initial Jobless Claims (7 Dec): consensus 320K, previous 298K
- US Retail Prices (Nov): Consensus +0.6%, previous +0.4%
- US Business Inventories (Oct): consensus +0.3%, previous +0.6%
- Euro Area IP (Oct): consensus +1.1%yoy, previous +1.1%yoy
- France Harmonised CPI (Nov): consensus +0.8%yoy, previous +0.7%yoy
- Italy Harmonised CPI (Nov, final): consensus +0.6%yoy, previous +0.6%yoy
- India CPI (Nov): Previous +10.1%yoy
- Russia Trade Balance (Oct): consensus USD+14.2bn, previous USD+15.7bn
- Israel Trade Balance (Nov): USD-1234mn
- Also interesting: Canada New Housing Price Index (Oct)
Friday, Dec 13
- Russia MPC: GS and consensus have 1-week auction rate unchanged at 5.50%
- US PPI (Nov): Consensus flat, previous -0.2%
- Spain Harmonised CPI (Nov, final): consensus +0.3%yoy, +0.3%yoy (flash)
- UK Construction (Oct): consensus +1.3%yoy, previous +5.8%yoy
- Poland CA Balance (Oct): consensus EUR-424mn, previous EUR-1024mn
- Also interesting: Romania CA Balance (Oct), Poland CPI (Nov)
The above visually via SocGen:
TOP ISSUES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD via SocGen
US RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS TO DISSAPOINT
A headline gain of 0.2% mom on November retail sales is expected to mask a disappointing -0.4%. More encouraging, we expect November small business (NFIB) at 92.2 up from 91.6. These reports are unlikely to significantly shift taper expectations and we now look to the first full week of January for the next major releases. Next week should some interesting Fedspeak with both James Bullard and Richard Fischer on the agenda.
UK HOUSING TO LIFT CONSTRUCTION
October construction output is set to see a rapid increase at 1.5% mom driven by housing. Also on the agenda this week is industrial production. The manufacturing sector is part of the UK recovery story, but a very volatile indicator. We look for a temporary decline in October at -0.4% mom. Mark Carney's speech in New York this week will be given close scrutiny as expectations build that the BoE will be amongst the first major central banks to hike rates; our call is late 2015. Good news for Sterling!
CHINA DATA TO SHOW STEADY Q4 BUT POINT TO LESS UPBEAT 2014
Chinese November export data were fairly positive. Tuesday's wave of activity data is set to show slower yoy activity growth across the board in November, mostly due to a base effect. Growth momentum seems to have largely held up entering Q4 and we look for 7.7%, after 7.8% in Q3. However, with November's money and credit data expected to confirm on-going deleveraging, the outlook for 2014 is less upbeat. We still expect a much below-consensus 6.9%. Such a slowdown, however, may also be within policymakers' expectation. The central government is likely to lower its growth target for next year from 7.5% to 7% at the Economic Work Conference sometime this month.
FURTHER SLOWDOWN FOR BRAZIL TOO
Economic activity is set to see a further decline in October at -0.3% mom and we look for retail sales to clock in at a lacklustre 0.2% mom. Uncompetitive exports and slowing wage and credit growth will see further weakness over the coming quarters.
Source: Deutsche, Goldman, SocGen
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