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Seeking Guidance...?!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If you BTFATH today, this is the forward-looking fundamental backdrop that is supporting your decision...

 

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:17 | 4231053 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

LOL!!!!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:31 | 4231118 fonestar
fonestar's picture

bullish in more ways than one!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:44 | 4231155 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

bullshit in all ways from side ways!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:49 | 4231310 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

All together now... "Nobody could have seen it coming!"

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:55 | 4231319 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Free Madoff! He was an honest ponzi scammer.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 03:03 | 4231697 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

When your money costs nothing, everything is a bargain...

How can the market crash when the buyers are central banks and they can create an unlimited amount of cash at no cost and buy?

Until then it won't be JP Morgan waltzing through the stock exchange issuing buy orders for stocks at well above par, it will be CB's creating billions, investing that into mega banks and investing the multiples that come out into any dip.

Until interest rates rise that is...

This could well be a very slow mo train wreck, which will be spectacular by any measure when it finally occurs. Who would want to be trying to get out of stocks and buy gold then? The banks can ramp stock markets till they can't and then just create a shit load of new money and buy gold whenever they choose. They don't need to sell at all, but we do.

To say that this is a massive manipulated fraud in favour of the banks in which the Regulators are complicit is the understatement of the millennium.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 05:43 | 4231792 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Still almost impossible to comprehend it's actually come to this. I know we keep rabbiting on about it's going to crash but I'm not sure many of us have really stopped to think what the true consequences of this crash are going to be. I mean, really, stopped to think. It may happen to tomorrow at which time I will wonder:

  1. Will food production continue on the industrial scale needed to feed the massive cities we occupy.
  2. Will food distribution still have the legs to fill supermarket shelves.
  3. Will you still be able to buy or even source your medications, many if which if stopped suddenly may well result in death.

It's easy to say, it's going to be far harder to survive than I expect we can even begin to imagine.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:20 | 4232461 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Yes it will be Mad Max City just like in 2008, 2000, 1974, 1961, 1937, 1929, 1921, 1914, 1907.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 19:28 | 4234157 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Vastly different scenario this time around than any of those periods because there was still the facade of the rule of law then. Now, many are fully aware of the break down of the rule of law in congress, in the financial markets and even constitutional rights. The aforementioned periods had the rule of law to fall back on and prosecute the wrong doers which took them out of the picture so society could rebuild. 

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:58 | 4231186 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

whatever was bought today was done so to be on the same side as the counterfeiters...same side as the crooks...moral hazard writ large

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:20 | 4231059 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

The financial/economic crash is coming very soon.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 02:39 | 4231686 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

While I share your outlook about the crash, it won't happen that soon.  This is the first time that all the major currencies are in a race to destroy themselves.  Add to that, the paper put out by Rosenberg stating that 5*The_Fed_Balance_sheet == The_NYSE_Market_Cap (in $).  Does anyone think Dove Yellen is going to taper?  Heck, if $85,000,000,000/month in bond/mortagage purchases is good, $125,000,000,000 would certainly be better.

The sky is the limit... until it is not.

My advice is to have some hot chocolate with your family.  Worrying about the upcoming crisis is pretty much a waste of time.

Google cursing fish cafepress

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 09:36 | 4231957 Secede Or Die
Secede Or Die's picture

"The sky is the limit... until it is not."

And when it is not....there will be no rehab facility to take in the monetary heroin addicts. How great the coming fall (judgment).

Gold is still at discount sale prices. Stack 'em high.

Secede or Die.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:19 | 4231062 GS-DickinDaMuppets
GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

I know I'm a dummy, and not too embarassed to show it - can someone please give me the "Clff Notes" on what this chart means?

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:26 | 4231094 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

It don't mean shit, basically, as long as Janet Felon be printin'.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 22:30 | 4231406 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Throw money at the fire.  Expect many multiples of ash in return.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 02:23 | 4231662 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"It don't mean shit, basically, as long as Janet Felon be printin'."

I think it means Yellen is going to have a very busy first day, Buy Stocks selling Ink and Printing equipment. Yellen is going to need to switch from the Bernanke Put to the Yellen Astronomical.

 

For an an educational video watch this indepth educational video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN1dG5jMp0M

Bernanke Put begins at ~2:45

The Yellen Astronomical begins at 3:23

watch what happens to the US and probably the rest of the World at 4:47

It will all make sense.

 

 

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:29 | 4231107 K-Dog
K-Dog's picture
BTFATH = Buy The Fucking All Time High

Beyond that I don't know any more than you do.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:32 | 4231108 OwnSilverPlayMusic
OwnSilverPlayMusic's picture

It's the ratio of companies expecting less than anticipated earnings to companies looking to exceed expectations.

Edit: See what hedgetard said.  That's the only thing that really matters.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:31 | 4231124 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Corporate execs (who for the most part are paid the majority of their income via stawk) say, its never been moar bullish for stawks & the economy...which means (for you) sell every stawk you own before they do ;-)

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:49 | 4231165 GS-DickinDaMuppets
GS-DickinDaMuppets's picture

Thank you - I appreciate the schooling!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:59 | 4231200 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Key word - guidance, it always comes from corporate execs and is usually overly optimistic.

This one is parabolic, as you can see...lol...theres probably about two-three years of stawks in the pipeline (all the time) that need to vest before they can be converted to cash by execs.

(Full disclosure) I think mine vested after three years the last time they deigned to give "middle management" a taste ;-)

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 23:01 | 4231463 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Remember the Microsoft button:

 

FYIV

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:01 | 4231201 K-Dog
K-Dog's picture

Correctimundo shit is about to hit the fan.  A bubble of false optomism is about to burst.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:36 | 4231133 joego1
joego1's picture

From my non financial analysis it looks like about 11 companies are expecting crappy results for every one expecting good results.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:45 | 4231142 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Misread the silly thing.

This is a fucking big deal;)

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:56 | 4231176 chump666
chump666's picture

In the old says when ratios mattered and brokers would give their recommendations to sell and or buy stock, ah the old days, also when we had decent profit taking on 1 to 2 % sell offs.

Pre announcement to earnings, anything over 6 pretty much indicated that we have a recessionary environment for company profits.  All ZH has to do is add the GDP/jobless/food stamp charts to this and we have close to a depression with huge doses of cronynism on top.  When I think about Hendry rambling on about going all in on the back of central bank cartels...

This market is dead.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:22 | 4231075 TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

This is what happens (in the end) when you fuck the fundamentals in the ass:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ausPKEMVk0

 

This is what happens Larry! You see what happens Larry!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:30 | 4231106 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

This is unbelievable.

What does the full 2014 guidance ratio look like?

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:29 | 4231112 rguptatx
rguptatx's picture

BTFAITH: Buy The Fucking All Interim Time High!

Besides, itis all baked-in, and BULLSHIT - Oops, I meant Bullish!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:29 | 4231113 fcamargoe
fcamargoe's picture

Who cares about guidence or actual earnings, its all about the flow. Stocks will continue to go higher in the short to mid run. Long run, thats another story.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:31 | 4231126 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

I only listen to Kudlow - Don't bother me with this nonsense!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:53 | 4231180 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

Who's Kudlow?  Does he know something Cramer doesn't? 

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 09:18 | 4231918 Keynesian Mess
Keynesian Mess's picture

Since Cramer knows nothing, probably.

 

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:34 | 4231134 Blano
Blano's picture

Ironic that the negative ratio kept going up right with the market, so clearly this is another buy signal.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:35 | 4231141 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

are you still talking about fundamentals tyler? can I make a suggestion? how about zero-hedge go bullish ... just say only bullish things, report everything with bullish tint ... my bet is the market will then crash within 3 month.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:58 | 4231193 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

3 days!

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 10:11 | 4232129 B.J. Worthy
B.J. Worthy's picture

If the bullcrap keeps rising for a few more months, maybe we'll get an April Fools Bulls post.

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 20:53 | 4231174 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

Must be a typo.  Has to be Positive-Negative ratio, right?  Xmas sales will fix everything!

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:03 | 4231196 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

This is part of the game called "Beat the Estimates". Before earnings' announcement, companies tell the damn stupid analyst that their earnings estimates are too high. the analyst reduce their earnings estimates and low and behold the companies report earnings above analyst estimates and the talking heads start yelling on TV about the unbelievable strength of these great managers to wring earnings from flat sales.

Over time, the analyst keep raising their earnings estimates to justify the mantra that the low PEs they are forecasting justify much higher multiples; thus stock prices. As this continues, more and more companies must warn that estimates are too high so they can win the "Beat the Estimates" game. This continues, especially under ZIRP and QE (negative real interest rates), for a time until the blind retail traders fall off the cliff. TBTJ laugh to the bank and start the process all over again

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:04 | 4231212 youngman
youngman's picture

It looks like a Tulip stem to me....

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 21:18 | 4231252 stant
stant's picture

only tulip stem there is so everyones forced to play. unless you sit it out because ya dont know when it blows

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 22:21 | 4231387 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Was that previous record high set in Sept. of 2007? The chart only goes back to 2009. (Maybe it was Sept. 1929?)

Mon, 12/09/2013 - 22:42 | 4231424 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Since when exactly has this market been driven by any of the fundamentals, or anything but the Fed for that matter ? Screw earnings, PE Multiples, corporate debt, Return on capital, or any other metric you would like to throw in here, including any form of technical analysis.

Everyone knows this game is rigged to the hilt. The only prudent play is cash, with your PM stacks slowly growing higher month by month as you patiently sit back and wait for the music to stop playing.

Everyone thinks they can get out in time as soon as this unsinkable, "Titanic" of a stock market hits an iceberg. The first hit will be a "correction" followed by a bounce back that will suck the last bits of blood from those late to the party and looking to separate themselves from more of their hard earned money. Yes, the so called dumb money. Then right before we have bounced back and are ready to reach the old "all time high" again, the bottom is going to fall out of this MF like never before. Want to see what 1,000 algos look like rushing for the few remaining life boats off the Titanic HFT deck?

The poor bastards play the "home game" are going to get fucking smoked before they can even log onto their trading platform only to find "market glitches" that prevent their trades from ever getting executed. BTW, the first "correction" also acts as a punishment wrecking ball for all of those the had put in stop loss orders. Burned you that time and you won't make that mistake again, plus you need to make back the money you just lost right? Exactly what they want to see happen. No downside protection after the first correction, so you ride the Titanic down and swim with the fishes as the bottom falls out for real.

Just my take on the way the market plays out, and sooner than most people think. But the Titanic is unsinkable right ? Interesting parallels when you think about it ...

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 01:29 | 4231618 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

"Red rocket" Sparky RED ROCKET!

http://vimeo.com/31061568

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 05:27 | 4231786 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

"If you BTFATH today, this is the forward-looking fundamental backdrop that is supporting your decision..."

One major flaw in the above sentence, the word "fundamental".

It's got nothing to do with positve guidance or negative guidance or earnings or debt. It's got to do with a shit load of money being printed by our beloved central planner in chief, Bernanke.

I think the problem Zero Hedge and Tyler is facing is that they are so damn good at what they do that they just can't adjust to the truly fucked nature of the financial world we now inhabit. Believe me man, I feel for you, none of us can.

I'm pretty sure Zero Hedge will still be posting these types of articles in another few years. As I write this I am saying to myself, I know damn well it's not going to last another few years, it's going to crash imminently . . . . . . . but that;s because I can't adjust.

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