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JOLTS October Net Turnovers Surge To 260K, Highest Since February

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Back in September, courtesy of an unprecedented discrepancy between the JOLTS "net turnovers" (or hires less separations) print, which traditionally has been the equivalent of the NFP's establishment survey monthly job additions, we highlighted just what happens when the BLS has caught itself in a estimation lie, and is forced to adjusted the data set both concurrently and retroactively to correct for cumulative error.

We suggested that as a result of this public humiliation, the BLS would have no choice but to ramp up its monthly net turnovers print in order to "catch up" to what the monthly payrolls survey indicated is America's "improving" jobs picture.

Sure enough, when moments ago the latest October JOLTS survey was released, the October "net turnovers" number soared from 155K in September to a whopping 260K in October, more than eclipsing the revised NFP print of 200K job gains in October, and leading to the second highest JOLTS turnover print since February's 271K, and before that - going back all the way to the 287K in February of 2012. And yes, this was in the month when the government had shut down and the result was supposedly major, if temporary, job losses.

Today's number also means that the YTD monthly average job gain based on either the payroll data or the JOLTS survey has declined to just 24K (160K for JOLTS, 184K for NFP), the lowest average difference in 2013.

Finally, this is how the difference between the two time series on a monthly snapshost basis looks:

Why is any of this important? Because to Janet Yellen, the JOLTS survey has traditionally been an important secondary metric for the jobs market, and judging by the huge jump in implied job gains, if indeed the Fed was in a tapering mood, the December FOMC meeting looks increasingly like the day when a Taper may be announced. Of course, that ignores how a very illiquid market would react, and is perhaps the reason why December's final, massive double POMO is on the day just after the FOMC announcement.

 

 


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Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

It's all about the yield curve now. Not jobs.

 

How steep does it need to be?!?

 

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

 

It's getting steeper as it pivots around the 10yr. It's time to let go.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Thanks for posting that, OM. Very interesting visualization. I don't think it was ever about 'jobs'. That was just a selling point.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Wow, just wow.  It is going to snap, all of a sudden.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

This little site has a great animation of what they have been doing...

 

Drag the trail length slider to the right, and you can see how the Fed has gripped the bond market since 2008.

 

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

 

Time to let go, it's pulling hard (steepening). They had a similar exit opportunity in 2011 but the Eurozone crisis prevented it.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Is there any way you can lose by shorting short term treasuries? Would they go to negative nomimal yields?

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

They did in Germany in the depths of the Eurozone crisis. But not for long.

 

If you're going to pay someone to borrow money from you, they will probably take every penny you have. I know I would.

 

Negative yield isn't really the problem for that trade, the problem is financing the open short through more years of ZIRP.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:55 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Someone rich will get richer.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 14:34 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

The near-zero rates have been boosting house sales...but now that rates are rising and people are also tapped out  [as well as wage stagnantion] the housing market is barely crawling along even in so-called, "hot markets."

As rates tick up, the economy will slow further...however, the silver lining is seniors/retirees can begin to breath again as their savings yield rises above 0.01%

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Obamacare! (simple as that).

 

(Cue Symphony of Destruction......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyWJCd1GYhw)

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment madbraz
madbraz's picture

Double POMO and FOMC announcement on the eve of quadruple options expiration - what a coincidence, once again!

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Move in with an FBI goon squad and haul the FEDs asses into prison for later prosecution as war criminals, financila terrorists and child molestors. They don't get to decide anything in my mind ever again. I'm done with them. Mayswell chuck the BLS in there with them. And Feinstein, Blankfein, Dimon and now you got me goin throw the M'Fn Washington D.C. globalists in there with them too. Fuch it lets be done with them all at once.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

selling yellen is really smelling.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

If they taper, then the unemployment number reverses. That means the FED is not following their mandate to maintain employment, and will be forced to resume monetization.

Which makes this nothing but another time consuming excercise, because the only thing left to manipulate is time...

All the way up until they can't.

 

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So taking the average of this chart going back a decade, it really shows nothing at all, may as well just be a straight flatline.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment 666
666's picture

I'd like to JOLT Mr. Yellen with my cattle prod.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment W74
W74's picture

That would probably put her body into stimulus mode.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment papaswamp
Tue, 12/10/2013 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Sweet Pea
Sweet Pea's picture

wait, I thought the shutdown was THIS year?

 

Time flies. I must be having fun.

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