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The One Topic No One Is Discussing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier, Deutsche Bank's iconoclast Jim Reid dared to point out the painfully obvious: that something has drastically changed since the Great Financial Crisis (what that "something" is, is clear to all those whose year end bonus does is not contingent on never pointing out the printerphant in the room). This time around, instead of looking back, he looks forward, to the year 2014, and brings up the two questions nobody dares to ask: i) what happens if 2014 is the year when the recession can no longer be delayed, and ii) how will the Fed, already having doubled down on every last "bullet" in its arsenal, use monetary policy to provide a burst of growth when even $85 billion in flow per month is no longer enough...

From Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid

The curveball for 2014 – A US recession

One topic no-one is really discussing is a US recession in 2014. We should start to at least consider the risk given the maturity of this cycle. By the end of 2013 this expansion will be 54 months old which is longer than the average of 39 months (median 30) since data started to be compiled on US business cycles in 1854. The average in the 100 years since the Fed was formed in 1913 is 50 months (median 42). This cycle is now the seventh-longest of the 34 cycles since 1854. Economists will explain that recessions don’t die of old age but because of imbalances that they might argue are not yet present. However consensus never forecasts a recession in advance so one has to find other ways to help us identify the end of the cycle. Across most other regions, business cycles have shortened post the GFC with many economies experiencing a dip into negative territory again sometime between 2011 and 2013 after the recovery in 2009 and 2010. A lack of policy flexibility (fiscal and monetary) post crisis is our main explanation. The US has just about escaped this due to extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus. However with both likely on the retreat at the same time in 2014 it’s prudent to acknowledge the already mature length of this cycle.

So the most obvious driver of financial markets in 2014 does seem likely to be how the Fed, the global economy and the market manage to handle the question of the QE taper. Whether the ECB need to implement negative deposit rates or introduce QE will also be a big driver. However experience teaches us that it’s not usually the obvious theme that ends up dominating in the following 12 months.

 

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Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:41 | 4234923 Stuck on Zero
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This chart should have been a scatter plot. 

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:04 | 4234995 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

the expansion in the 80s (100+ months) and 90s (120+ months) was just one single expansion 

with a momentary taper

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:53 | 4235060 starfcker
starfcker's picture

I completely agree that entire period was one 25 year expansion, fueled by things that can and cannot be duplicated now. reagan slashed taxes at the top rate from 70% down to high 20 something per cent. that was huge. nothing bush or obama does with tax policy can do anything like that, because we aren't starting from such a high point. second, money had velocity back then. money bouncing around a town lifts lots of boats. money going to china does nothing for america. third, reagan simplified regulation, it was a great time to start a small business. obama is at war with small business, using every tool in the federal toolbox to crush it. small business is incompatible with centralization and globalization. We will never have even a decent economy again without a return to broad money.     e

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:02 | 4235091 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I'm 29 years old.   Still havn't seen a real recession in my life. House prices are still going up here in Canada

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:39 | 4235145 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

You've been living in one you're entire life.

For the last thirty years money has become meaningless.  To you it's normal.  To us geezers, it's the damnest weirdest thing we've ever seen.  There used to be standards and rules to investing, now there are none.  Central banks have changes everything in the last thirty years.  I even, these days, doubt the rule of 72.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:58 | 4235243 Late onset ADHD
Late onset ADHD's picture

beyond wierd, OldPhart...

my industry for almost 30 years has been an econometric model... leading indicator of recession, lagging indicator of recovery.

the last 10 years, my "model" has been beaten to death with a lead pipe.

I'm too old for this shit.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:30 | 4235336 Seer
Seer's picture

When things just don't add up you've got to question the premise.

Because the System is predicated on perpetual growth on a finite planet everyone sees it through that prism (though not being able to see the absurdness of this premise.  I suggest that we're now facing the reality that there just ain't no more growth to be had (we pulled as much forward as we could) and that all models (based on growth) are pretty much meaningless.

"I'm too old for this shit."

And that's part of the problem, not enough new folks out there to carry the Edward Bernays brainwashing techniques- us older folks are becoming hip (some are slow) to how this all comes down.  My only option is to accept that it'll be harsh, and muscle-up, or voluntarily check-out...

Woody Allen summed it all quite well:

"We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction."

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:42 | 4235378 BoNeSxxx
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+1 Seer (logged in at 05:20 just to do that)... I don't know who junked you -- your comment is spot on.

Growth (and the illlusion that it is ALWAYS good and neessary) serves only the money meme and the fact that it REQUIRES a constant influx of greater fools in order to sustain itself.   

Once people recognize this simple fact, many many things that once confused them begin to make sense.  Unchecked immigration in the Euro and the US is one such example.  The flood gates are open because the populace is put down as collateral (via taxation) by nations in exchange for loans from the central banks... simple and truthy - junk away trolls and FSA sympathizers. This 'system' has been in place since the ancient Phoenicians and pre-dates even the Egyptians and it has been dusted off and repeated after crashing every nation where it has been allowed to exist.

When policies don't serve the people, one has to ask 'who (or what) is being served'?  

Both Jaques Fresco and Peter Joseph have done interesting modeling on what a resource-based (non monetary) economy would look like... it's fascinating to think about really.  A world free from war, highly valued education, spiritual and thought evolution, humankind progress, etc rather than the constant cycles of boom, bust, war, collapse, kick the money changers out, prosper, allow them back in, boom, bust, war, collapse, kick the money changers out, prosper, allow them back in, rinse and repeat ad nauseam...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:42 | 4235509 new game
new game's picture

why the fuck can't people say "TOO MANY OF MYSELVES"!!!

yea you are part of the problem.  too many births w/o regard to checks and balances.

yea, modern medicine is only temp/ as check and balance will catch up.

as long as food ramps(including food byproduct ie. crap food) we will grow in numbers.

but that growth may be sputtering as mother(BITCH) EARTH SAY WHOOOO, enough already.

soon enough it will be a woody allen day of true fight for survival of food, water and shelter.

shelter is optional as nomadic will be best imo....

packs of wolves preying on darwins food of the future...

grim reality coming to a decade soon...

and 90 percent will be clueless.

I like to look at it mathematically-ie fab retrace.

6 billion growth(advent of oil) in last 110 years and retrace(demise of) 62 percent of growth=...

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:35 | 4235500 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Me too, I have never seen anything like this. Big changes taking place in very short periods of time. The Brown Clown might not be doing anything new, but he sure has his foot on the accelerator. If people look at what he does thorught the lens that it is meanto to cause maximum confusion, the picture brightens up immeasureably.  He and his minions want nothing more than total conversion of this economy where control at the top is the ultimate goal. Doesn't matter which party is in control, either. They are one in the same.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:28 | 4235131 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

"You didn't build that..."

Why would any small business owner feel the gubmint is out to get them?

BW

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:38 | 4235340 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, this has only just started under Obama... </sarc>

"Get big or get out." - Earl Butz (assistant Secretary of Agriculture under Eisenhower; Secretary of Agriculture under Nixon)

This is about farming!  For fuck's sake, people, wake the fuck up!  NOTHING FUCKING NEW HERE!  If we're willing to centralize our food production (as Butz was encouraging- there's NO other destination when it's a race to Big and Bigger- consolidation until you hit TBTF) then we're willing to centralize EVERYTHING. (note: I need not mention Kissinger's remarks about controlling food; note #2: these are BOTH appointees by Republican administrations, which goes to point out the absurdity that one "party" is responsible for the continued march toward centralization [which is really pretty much about economies of scale])

That people are so fucking myopic (because of their fucked up partyu-programming shit) is why there's not a shot in hell of fixing a damn thing.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:38 | 4235503 starfcker
starfcker's picture

butz pretty much invented disposable income in america. his agricultural policies brought the cost of feeding your family from about 35% of gross income to under 20%. again, problem? better answer? again, you are demonizing policies that were good for america. i thought that's what government was for.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:24 | 4235300 Ned Zeppelin
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Reagan slashed taxes, generated the beginning of the modern endless federal budget deficits and arguably spawned the Rethuglican policy of endless tax cuts and irresponsible borrowing.

No wonder it looked like a party - it was, on the world's biggest Platinum Card.

Demoncrats no better of course. But Reagan started a lot of this mess we are in now.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:53 | 4235316 starfcker
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ned, i would disagree with you. here's why. first, reagan's tax cuts in 1981 helped pull us out of a stagnant economy (70% rates are economic killers, ask britain) within a couple of years, as the economy got stronger, he re-raised rates, particularly on the low end. people tend to value a society more when they are vested participants. think i'm wrong? with the now tax paying poor in his pocket (huh?) reagan swept to a landslide 49 state victory in 1984. why? average, not median income rose about 25% during his 2 terms, with low inflation. people's lives were made better. that changed the instant clinton signed NAFTA, in effect telling workers your labor will soon have the same value as a third world slave. 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:40 | 4235341 Seer
Seer's picture

ZH even had an article not too long ago that dismissed most of the "Reagan as economic hero" shit...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:34 | 4235427 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Your honor, I ask the prosecution to name a better President since Reagan.

 

That's what I thought.......the defense rests.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:47 | 4235440 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The best president was Bush one, a war hero who's plane went down in bad weather during World War II, and was plucked out of the raging seas as a camera rolled off the deck of the aircraft carrier. He was RR'd by No Time Clinton and touted as the reformer, get that, a non-linear democrate with no integrity was going to turbo charge the economy into utopia. Instead we got busted by the red nosed hard liners who keep up the shrade as if it is the new normal. It's a pitiful political party.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:10 | 4235462 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's a pitiful political party.

 

Are you talking about the progressive right or the progessive left?

What's the difference again?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:24 | 4235487 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The difference is one of each has commen sense, and the rest are goin to hell.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:28 | 4235493 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

And here I was just hoping they would all just up and die already.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:51 | 4235518 new game
new game's picture

what part of SPENDING don't you all understand. to this day it is for the most part ignored.

if by law the government COULD NOT spend more than tax reciepts - would we have a problem?

it is not the prez- it is CONgress spending- daaaaaa..!!!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:57 | 4235524 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's easy to spend money when you don't have a budget.

 

Do you have a budget......if so.....can we borrow it?

 

The President submitted one but it got voted down by....well everyone....how embarrassing is that crap?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:05 | 4235550 new game
new game's picture

truth is gov has become disfunctional and is not even following the law.

nation of laws? for whom? Not I, I am a senator. I am above the law...

fucking total sham ass mess-beyond repair>bring on the violence for REAL change...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:21 | 4235602 jerry_theking_lawler
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I tend to 'disagree' with you both....this all started in 1913. All of it.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:44 | 4235344 Seer
Seer's picture

The rubicon was 1971: peak US oil production; USD full-fiat; opening of "trade" relations with China.  Reagan, and every administration following Nixon's, was pretty much left with a partial deck of cards.  In order to continue playing the game it was necessary to resort to bluffing and smoke and mirrors.  It's meaningless to blame anyone here, as doing so only tends to distract from fully understanding what the year 1971 really meant: the end of real PHYSICAL growth (virtual, thanks to computing, has been holding the gap since [and is now slipping]).

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:30 | 4235483 starfcker
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seer, that's just not true. the left always likes to rewrite reagan. we were as messed up in 1980 as we are now, the only difference was as much as carter hated america, he didn't hate americans. we became a prosperous nation again under reagan. it was pretty good, i lived it. if great conditions to start and run a business with minimal interference from the federal government is not the best thing possible, what is, in your eyes? i'm not starry eyed about this, but what do you think started the 25 year economic boom graze and i are talking about? it sure as fuck wasn't globalization. do you really think gay marriage and women in combat are doing to save us economically? don't worry, bathhouse is on the job.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:53 | 4235714 new game
new game's picture

it is so hard to evaluate a period of time as current "policy makers" are gaming and pulling fwd some shape and form of il gotten gain for today at tomarrows expense! just the way it is. much more complex than anyone can put their thoughts around-too many dynamics-hence political discourse and the stupid red/blue endless discussion of who the fuck is right or wrong- it is simply the biggest gun forcing smaller guns to do as i say...violence or the threat of violence(by laws) is what rules the day-rad maryjane credit-thnx...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 12:58 | 4236435 starfcker
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new game, i agree with you, but dealing with reagan we have the value of hindsight. what set reagan apart was he was very nationalist. he believed the world was a better place if america was strong and prosperous. the left hated him then as much as they do now. i don't carry around a ronnie reagan lunchbox or anything, but there is a lot of hand wringing on this site about how do we fix things. reagan showed how it's done. no bullshit. just fix things.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 01:43 | 4238845 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

I'm only in my 30s, so I don't know what life was like before I was around, but it seems to me that much of the idea of capitalism as religion, of "if it makes good business, it is good," or that profit is the ultimate arbiter of right and wrong, much of that sentiment really grew and prospered under Reagan and Thatcher.

Congrats to Pope Francis for being the Man of the Year in 2013. Humanity does need to aspire to something more than just profit. Not saying the Catholic church has it all right and Reagan-Thatcherites have it all wrong; there is a place for both kinds of thought (like government really should make laws and rules that align incentives in a way that makes sense). But man, if life is all about the $, it is a very hollow life.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 12:12 | 4243469 paintman
paintman's picture

Reagan wanted to cut taxes and spending. House Speaker Tip O'Neal agreed to cut taxes first and spending later. The Democratically controlled House never followed through on their end of the agreement. I think this current agreement will end up much the same.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:32 | 4235042 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Budget deal. BTFD again. Always.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 12:18 | 4236264 12ToothAssassin
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Stuck on Zero: "This chart should have been a scatter plot." - Better yet a Scatter Chart aka a schart.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:45 | 4234934 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Hear that Janet? The R word. Pedal to the metal!

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:49 | 4234953 Everyman
Everyman's picture

A recession in 2014???  How come because of "One of the greatest financial crises" in recent times since 2008-9, when "extraordinary measures" were needed, we started QE, and here we are 5 years STILL IN QE??? 

 

Where did this "economic expansion" and "growth" occur???

 

These financial idiots cannot figure out we have NEGATIVE GROWTH!!!  And have had for OVER 5 YEARS!!!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:02 | 4234993 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

+appropriate rant ups

 

unlimited

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:52 | 4235078 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Those aren't 'financial idiots': those are Financial Terrrorists,

Further, that 'negative growth' you refer to would more accurately be described as Looting.

The 'extraordinary measures' and QE are Looting, Confiscation, Repression and Theft.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:18 | 4235402 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

All true enough of course.

Perception, 'optics' is all that matters though and these sick f^cks can can stiil blow this bubble for quite some time.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:51 | 4234961 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

No, the one topic no one is discussing is what a towering pile of FWMD DB is.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:59 | 4234987 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's a sliding scale, WB.  Compared to what other towering pile of crap?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:10 | 4235011 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

let us be the first to point out what a towering pile of crap is DB

hugs,

http://scotiamocatta.com/

http://www.hsbc.com/

disclaimer: the views and opinions of this post do not necessarily reflect those of mocatta and HSBC

http://www.hsbc.com/about-hsbc/leadership?WT.ac=HGHQ_f1.4_On

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:20 | 4235119 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I'm sure Ben's super stoked on his new job as bitch.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:06 | 4235001 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

I don't know what those acronyms stand for, but Douche is in there at least once huh?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:53 | 4235917 ProtectiveFather
ProtectiveFather's picture

Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction - Deutsche Bank

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:15 | 4235021 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

maybe that's why the American branch is calling for a recession. "we're already in one." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUbpwNWmjfI

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:52 | 4234966 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Lakshman Achuthan will have his revenge!!!111

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:27 | 4235037 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that really is one of the greatest songs played live in history. here it is again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUbpwNWmjfI saw EC live around this time in Albany, NY...poured rain the whole show...we made the front page of the paper but never got "Let it Rain." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LeSx5PfP8I

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:55 | 4234971 401K of Dooom
401K of Dooom's picture

Recession in the US?  I wanna see Greece go "Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome!"

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:54 | 4234975 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Should I laugh or cry over this?

 

 

One topic no-one is really discussing is a US recession in 2014. 

 


Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:57 | 4234982 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I called the start of recession in August of this year here on ZH (and moved to 33% cash with that call).  Shows you what the fuck I know.  Even if I'm right it doesn't mean squat to the markets.  They have their own ecosystem now.  No need to be bothered by the real economy.

And, byt the way, the "real" economy (if there is such a thing) has continued to stink since the summer.  Nobody gives a crap.

Now I don't give a crap either.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:02 | 4234992 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I stopped giving a crap as well.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:05 | 4234999 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

And when there is nothing left to eat, we definitely won't be giving a crap.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:10 | 4235008 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Crap: the real economy.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:43 | 4235063 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

No crap given here.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:43 | 4235150 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

So puckered a crap has been weeks ago.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 03:44 | 4235269 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Heh....you said "markets".....

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:58 | 4234984 akak
akak's picture

So we're going to go from the current depression into merely "recession"?

Hooray!  Progress!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:06 | 4235003 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

+1 on that I was thinking the same thing. For what is left of the real economy, this has been a depression. I welcome this mere recession with open arms. Only reason this depression doesn't have soup lines like the last ones is they have been replaced with long lines at Walmart buying junk food with ebt cards instead. What a joke. Oh, right, DB said it. So ya

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:13 | 4235013 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

you and akak are iconoclasts for daring to point out what the iconoclast db's Fred Reid dared not to point out and I am an iconoclast for daring to point all this out.

I had to look up iconoclast to make sure of the definition and wanted to use it in a sentence to get comfortable.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:27 | 4235126 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You my friend are a dork. I had no need to look dork up since I've been using it all my life and am therefore very comfortable with the word. :)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:56 | 4235452 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

agreed completely.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:01 | 4235741 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Cool beans, Doctor! And never hesitate to call any woman a dork! Especially the one you live with ...   :)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:41 | 4235437 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> iconoclast

You bring a smile to this logophile's face.

Tue, 12/10/2013 - 23:58 | 4234985 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

99% are already in a recession.  15% of that 99% downright depression

1%  Let the good times roll http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6G-qb1RRCo

&#ck DB

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:03 | 4234996 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Did they say recession or funeral procession?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:16 | 4235022 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

But we are only just over the average and 50% of the maximum.  That means we have at least another 50 something weeks left of upside.  

 

Especially considering the FED is not even close to the limit of their capital yet, infinity is a rather large number....

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:29 | 4235025 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Conveniently, I can just copy/paste my last comment:

What a charming, thoughtful, caring message from (BlackRock) Deutsche.
The behavior is amusing and predictable... at least there is that.

 

And you should smell the like behavior; similar odors are an important thing.
There is no escape from the hubris, it leads to failure, and when finally combined with fear, it reeks.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 00:51 | 4235075 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

If you ignore ZH...... Then sure, no one.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:25 | 4235101 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"printerphant in the room"

I enjoyed that turn of phrase!

What should be the most OBVIOUS elephant in the room is that endless exponential growth is IMPOSSIBLE, despite the whole history of Neolithic Civilization being based upon it. The most important elephant in the room is regarding how are the death controls going to be done? The occult elegance of the evolution of the history of warfare, being based on successful deceits, has enabled the construction of a civilization which is based on fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, in which the death controls have mostly become deeply encrypted into the debt controls.

The "printerphant in the room" is based upon the ability of private banks, within systems of privatized central banks, being able to create the public money supply out of nothing, as debts, as FORCE BACKED FRAUDS. The elephant in the room is the way that the sovereign powers to rob, and to kill to back up that robbery, are the real foundation of the economic systems, and MUST BE. However, those have their real history of being based on successful warfare, being based on successful deceits, so that society ended up being dominated by the maximum possible deceits regarding its real death controls. Since those actually were what backed up the debt controls, we therefore ended up with a financial system based on the maximum possible fraudulence, while those who got to be the most wealthy and powerful people upon that basis were able to dominate society, so that their bullshit became the dominate social stories.

Since endless exponential growth is absolutely impossible, therefore, by definition, what will stop that are some form or another of death controls. That is the central concept of evolutionary ecology, regarding which life forms automatically come as a package deal. The biggest elephant in the room is that is being done through the maximum possible lies about itself, as the socially acceptable, and promoted, version of lies about how human systems actually operate.

The "printerphant in the room" is merely the tiny tip of an iceberg of triumphant frauds, backed up by force, which triumphantly gets away with evil deliberate ignorance regarding what it is really doing, because the history of warfare has selected for systems of death controls to be done through the maximum possible deceits. Therefore, the basic obvious idea that endless exponential growth is impossible, and the longer that we ignore that, then the worse it will finally manifest, applies to the death control systems even more so than the debt control systems.

The ways that human civilizations actually operate is quite hyper-complicated due to the ways that lies can be backed up with violence, for generation after generation, so that the social stories which dominate the public explanations about things become extremely entangled. The "printerphant in the room" is one of the most obvious symbols of the overall ways that human civilization operates its organized systems of lies, operating organized robberies, through languages describing what it is doing based upon the maximum possible deceits and frauds. THE TREMENDOUS PARADOXICAL SIZE OF THAT ELEPHANT IS THAT LIES BACKED UP BY VIOLENCE WORKS ... AT LEAST IN EACH SHORT-TERM INCREMENT ... Therefore, society will adapt to natural limits through the most psychotically crazy ways that one could possibly try to imagine. The fraud of making money out of nothing, as debts, will continue to become of as great an astronomical size as it possibly can. That will continue to work, because those lies will continue to be enforced. However, that "printerphant in the room" is based upon being able to achieve social success through triumphant frauds, which has some kind of limited shelf life, while we are not yet sure what that shall be.

Although it makes theoretical sense how and why we ended up with a human ecology and political economy based upon the maximum possible deceits, and frauds, we have not yet seen the real limits to that fully manifested. For now the "printerphant in the room" is still running on its treadmill at full speed, while the ways that that is really based on backing up lies with violence, and the real limits to being able to do that, are not yet apparent ...

Of course, I would say that the idea which I have mentioned above is orders of magnitude more significant a form of "The One Topic No One Is Discussing," namely, since the "printerphant in the room" is based on being able to back up frauds with force, since the debt controls depend upon death controls, at what point does the runaway debt insanity numbers become runaway death insanity numbers?

Since endless exponential growth is absolutely impossible, and the social pyramid system of Neolithic Civilization is reaching its natural limits upon planet Earth, HOW ARE WE GOING TO ADAPT TO THAT, WHICH PRIMARILY MEANS HOW ARE WE GOING TO CHANGE OUR DEATH CONTROL SYSTEMS?

Since our currently established systems are based upon the history of successful deceits, which enable those doing that to get away with denying what they are really doing, as much as possible, so that the banksters do not have to be accountable for the real ways that their debt controls result in de facto death controls, COLLECTIVELY THE SOCIAL PYRAMID, NEOLITHIC, STYLE OF CIVILIZATION IS MORE PSYCHOTICALLY INSANE THAT WE CAN IMAGINE, SINCE IT IS BASED UPON MOST PEOPLE BEING ABLE TO DELIBERATELY IGNORE THE HERD OF ELEPHANTS IN THEIR LIVING SPACES.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:08 | 4235194 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Seven billion people is a lot of suddenly workless, foodless, moneyless, pissed off folks. I don't know what the future holds, but I do know there's a lot less of us around. The best you can do is stay safe and protected to the best of your abilities with able, hard working people. As the supply chains will sure enough one day come to rigor mortis, we will be welcomed to our funeral.

Rigor Mortis - Welcome to Your Funeral

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlRU2FBWM8o

R.I.P Mike Scaccia

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:43 | 4235222 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

I remember my first class in microbiology when the professor told us if one cell of Clostridium perfringens were to have infinite space and food, it would become the size of planet Earth in 24 hrs. We were duly impressed but realized this, of course, was never possible. I have begun to realize pie in the sky economists must truly see this as possible.

Miffed;-)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:52 | 4235235 akak
akak's picture

Sometimes I suspect that Paul Krugman likes to imagine an entire planet consisting of nothing but broken windows.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:58 | 4235244 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Would it break your heart to hear that he doesn't really give a fuck (as long as he's well fed, housed, and pampered after forever)?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:34 | 4235305 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Exponential growth is not impossible; it is normal. The fundamental goods are not natural resources, but human ideas. Since the number of ideas should be proportional to the number of people, roughly speaking, the number of ideas should increase with population. Each new economic idea brings with it a semi-permanent increase in production. The rate of increase in production (innovation) is proportional to population, as stated, which is increasing. Since the rate of increase is increasing, the normal growth curve must be at least quadratic.

What is impossible is a system based on lies and violence, which is inconsistent with fundamental human nature. Such a system will eventually be outcompeted by a system valuing truth and justice - as hunter-gatherer societies were largely outcompeted by agricultural ones.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:10 | 4235103 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The one topic Tyler is not discussing is "Free Sawyer". /s

In a perverse way, I kinda miss him and Otto. Occasionally informative, often tiring, but also entertaining. [Sniff]

Their one-track meme aside, I can't say that the average quality of discourse has improved any.

And judging by the readership stats, we're in a plateau level. Just an observation.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:24 | 4235209 seek
seek's picture

Well, crisis drives readership here, and thanks to the Fed, there is no crisis, only a permantly rising S&P 500. Can't blame Tyler for running so many bitcoin stories since it seems to be driving traffic.

We'll break out of the plateau once the fireworks start in earnest, ala 2008. We'll probably see a few firecrackers in 2014 followed by the main event in 2015-2016.

OT: we seem to have a new distraction bubbling up: now that Saudi Arabia is pissed at us over the Iran deal, it seems whatever arrangement the US has with them has lost its value, so it's OK for them to be an enemy -- and now, all of a sudden, 12 years later, there's a sudden push to declassify documents on 9/11 that implicate the Saudis. That ought to be good for a few news cycles.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:38 | 4235306 tvdog
tvdog's picture

If only they'd declassify the ones that implicate the Israelis.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:39 | 4235376 Seer
Seer's picture

Re "OT"

The Saudis are starting to make a break with the U.S.

http://breakingenergy.com/2013/04/26/china-to-remain-free-rider-on-us-le...

Though the article suggests that the Chinese are happy with the free ride I'm thinking that the "island dispute" is going to push them into challenging for the role of world's policeman for oil shipping/transport: they want it then they should realize truer costs.  China, for now at least, appears to be the energy market, and the Suadis have likley had enough with the U.S.'s fiat and lack of regional political backing.  U.S. propaganda against China and Suadia Arabia will only increase.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:32 | 4235215 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

well just look the banners we gots, ZH sold out, dont get that kind of marketing revenue when theres free speech goin on.

Its not fight club anymore, its pillow fight club and bedtime is 11.  

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:04 | 4235748 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

No dessert for you! For year! :)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 03:31 | 4235261 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

The articles are not why I come here.  It's the Comment Section that is filled with mind-tantalizing observations, links to breaking news, a healthy banter of pro vs con views, laughter, sharing, insight, so much more.

 

Since the people who have been mentioned in your comment have left, I have noticed a dullness to the threads.  Watch-What-You-Say.  I am a Canadian.  The beating Canadians take from the world isn't apparently as upsetting as the You-Know-Who in the You-Know-Where. For instance:  "We are weenies.  Canaduh can enjoy Social Medicine in a democratic country because US military covers their asses.  Canaduh exists because America says it can."  Do you really think that bothers me?  I laugh at it.  Honestly, unless it comes to "get the fuck out of our country bitch" is thrown at me, I don't even hear it.  But I have heard Canadians tell me that when I get old, I should not return to Canada to enjoy their old-age pension plan and the ease of life for the elderly my government has given to us.  I love my country.  I can take what you throw at me.  It's no big deal.  I put my big girl panties on about 30 years ago and suggest you men with the cap on your head do the same.  We have more important things to think about then your sensitivities.  It is what it is.  The elephant in the room is AIPAC.

I just want to know one thing, where did they go?

 

Incidentally  I was banned from Huffpo for the same reason 6 years ago.  Don't mind at all not going there now; it has descended into Superficiality Hell. 

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:16 | 4235366 Seer
Seer's picture

I've said it many times over the years (here),  Canada is one of the few countries that has the necessary fundamentals going forward: U.S. and Russia being the other two.  The reason IS: Canada has PHYSICAL resources (energy being key).  This does not, however, exempt Canada (other other export-reliant countries) from the inevitable blow-up as the NWO implodes and takes out the global economy.  Toss out all the import/export shit and focus on what survival means- you have to have resources handy.  What it means is how well off one is AFTER TSHTF.

Are you braced for (finally) experiencing your housing bubble burst?  I'd figured that this would have happened a long time ago, but both Canada and Australia have managed to evade the pictures painted by my crystal ball...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:38 | 4235655 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Just as in the US, Canada has foreign money coming in to buy real estate, housing and businesses, I have read.

http://www.farmersforum.com/DEC2012/p7.htm

 


"These numbered companies, formed in Canada, are financed through Chinese government investment, with them taking over heavily-leveraged, modern farm mortgages, while retaining the same farm operator, and in the case of dairy operations, the same licence number for shipping milk, said Bergeron.

 

"If you own the mortgage, you own the farm," he said. He noted that it was perfectly legal for the Chinese to hold a mortgage and be shareholders in a Canadian corporation.

 

He used the example of taking over a $5 million mortgage on a heavily-leveraged dairy farm and then sweetening the pot by giving the farmer another $2 million. We’re buying the farm by keeping the mortgage and then giving the money to the farmer. We’re doing that across Canada."

 

Am not sure how this can end well. 

 

"The competition for food supply and the ownership of agriculture production capacity is the future"

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:46 | 4235679 new game
new game's picture

with pegged curency and fleece to profit, begs question:is this money matter as to value, where as look at what we got from ill gotten manipulation of stupid mericans...slant eye lol'g...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:48 | 4235895 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

http://www.cafanet.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=U_5805h9RUs%3D&tabid=96

I see that.

 

Saskatchewan Farmland and its Chinese Buyers Justin Yin - Sutton Group Norland Realty
Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:47 | 4235345 Seer
Seer's picture

What?  No mention of Trav777?  I liked old Trav, except when he went off on his biggoted tirades (for which I'd freely swing the hammer on)  He was one of the few pioneers here on ZH who understood the true issues of growth and energy.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 11:26 | 4236052 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

I agree. Other than his rants against blacks, he was a fountain of information. And I might add that his ability to dumb it down for the likes of me to understand.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:21 | 4235122 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Another way to look at it is that the Central Planners have finally gained control of the business cycle - it's a permanent depression for the vast majority covered over by paper promises and BlS statistics.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:45 | 4235342 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

If that is true just stake me in the heart. Central Planners can not be anything but the blood suckers of the corpse. The last goose that aborted the golden egg.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:55 | 4235352 Seer
Seer's picture

It is ALWAYS the case that complexity leads to more control.  Increasing population sizes.  Decreasing natural resources.  Centralization is a natural consequence/sequence of events.  Not promoting it, of course.

The pendulum swings... having pushed hard to the side of centralization we will then swing back toward fragmentation; and while this might bring smiles to folks' faces, the opposite of "control" will also be pairing up with "fragmentation"- lack of control, a lawlessness (minimal ability to enforce laws), like we can see now with the financial sector (and others), will also be visiting us...

Adjust as necessary.  Per Winston Churchill (paraphrasing): "Sometimes you have to do what is necessary."

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:20 | 4235403 honestann
honestann's picture

Better to have random lawlessness practiced by a bunch of disorganized doofuses than lawlessness from a massive, top-down controlled, hyper-technologicial police-state and full spectrum violence military industrial complex.  You have a lot better chance against doofii.  And believe it or not, a great many doofii will accept jobs if they can find them, which a highly active non-centralized small business market will create.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:08 | 4235463 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

You must take Cloward-Piven into consideration.

The Plan is to fully destroy the entire economic system and the livelihood of our People.

Deepening economic depression, bankruptcies and deaths due to purposely designed denial of healthcare will extract quite a toll. The intended results- social unrest, not unlike that happening in Greece, will allow the installation of an overt quasi-communist authoritarian Regime.

Simply following the long list of EOs signed since 2009 reveals a claim by .gov to confiscate and control all communications, transport, food, and medical care.

When the Big Switch is thrown, there will be utter Chaos. It is this Chaos the Regime thinks it can defeat and then assume control of. These plotters are quite arrogant, insulated, isolated, and will overreach. My contention is they sort of win either way- the nation is destroyed, and the so-called NWO will move its wealth and activities to the East.

The Will of We The People must be smashed through economic and political violence.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 10:02 | 4235740 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Good call Lake. It is definitely Cloward Piven, but methinks that in the ensuing chaos they will get it first. Out of the chaos a better country emerged.

This is all a result of not taking the medicine in 1971 and 2007. The bankers just couldn't do it, and would not let anyone else take the medicine either. They had to morph into the hosts to be sucked dry by the central banks. Businesses and individuals alike. 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 01:46 | 4235157 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

We have been in a depression since 2008; anyone who doesn't recognize that is a liar or a complete dumbshit.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:41 | 4235310 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

That, of course, is in the real world, as opposed to banker universe.  DB is not concerned about the real world and the mass of humanity, just about the possibility of another "recession" in the banker universe.

The GDP "growth" in the long recovery to which DB refers is simply the government counting asset stripping of the middle class by the banks as if it was actually the creation of goods and services.  DB is worried that there just might be a hiccup in that process of asset stripping, which would surely be a humanitarian disaster of the first order.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 05:55 | 4235353 Seer
Seer's picture

I was going to post that! :-)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:50 | 4235381 GCT
GCT's picture

+100 EB!  The problem arises when you state that publically to your co-workers and you get the deer in the headlight moment.  Worse your boss is extreme left or extreme right and over hears the conversation. You either get called into the office or your told in public to stop causing problems.   I quit contracting with HUD because of the crazy people in charge.  Even when presented with facts their political views cloud their judgement.  So I basically gave up.  I am actually feeling better being away from those nut cases with titles.  I never met one of them that ever worked in the private sector in the 19 years I contracted with them.   But they sure know how to squander the taxpayers money.

Now you can get petfood stamps approved May of this year another program that squanders our money.  After all their thought process on the matter is why should poor people be denied pets so lets start another corporate welfare program for them.  I just could not stomach it anymore. 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:42 | 4235434 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Another +100!

What this really means is a Much Deeper 'Recession' in 2014!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:51 | 4235449 Seer
Seer's picture

I'm thinking that having knowledge of HUD would mean that you know about Catherine Austin Fitts?

"Let them eat cake!"  Govt is just a tool for the oligarchs, like it's ever been anything other than that...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:24 | 4235611 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Again...another topic I must 'disagree' on. We have been in a depression since 1971 (when we defaulted and couplen't pay our bills).....

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 02:15 | 4235202 icanhasbailout
Wed, 12/11/2013 - 03:45 | 4235270 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

GREEN SHOOTS!!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 03:50 | 4235277 Global Observer
Global Observer's picture

Not sure what is to prevent the Fed from increasing the quantum of QE from US$85 billion a month to US$850 billion a month, if that is what they feel is needed to keep the bond yields low on treasury debt. The US$ will not fall in value against the major currencies since they will follow suit. The Dow Jone Index will probably go to 100,000 or even 1,000,000, but so what? The Fed may run out of MBSs and treasuries to purchase from banks and then they could move to purchasing private bonds and even stocks. if the value of the assets held by the Fed falls, they can sell them back to the market and repurchase them when their value goes up. As long as that money doesn't go into the hands of the majority as income, it won't lead to consumer price inflation. Don't see any internal limits on this continuing far into future. Any disruptions will have to come either in the form of a collapse of political authority or the non-Western world refusing to accept any Western currencies for their exports.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:32 | 4235304 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Elegant summary of the reasons to BTFATH and kick back. AKA capitulate. I think there may be a micro-taper just to reinforce credibility and bolster the currency. Also, sitting here pondering the vacuum of power politics at a restless 330 am consider that the USD will also rule as long as it has guns and gasoline in ample quantities, the 2 things undergirding all of this.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:22 | 4235478 Seer
Seer's picture

No disagreement from me, Ned.  However, the "rule" can disappear more quickly than most would otherwise think: it happened slowly and then all at once.

Always best to hedge against catestrophic events, even if they seem remote.  And in this case the timeframe may be "remote," but the eventuality of it all is pretty much a certainty (I really don't think that there'll be a Bretton Woods II, which the U.S. would surely be looking to maintain preferred treatment- Russia and China wouldn't sign up).

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:02 | 4235359 Seer
Seer's picture

All fine and good, until...

"if the value of the assets held by the Fed falls, they can sell them back to the market and repurchase them when their value goes up"

That's one BIG "if!"

At some point all this energy consumed doing all of this won't be able to be supported.  As more and more people become detatched from the System the System ceases to have any real meaning.  As I've stated before, the Fed will be the bag-holder at the end: and I could make a strong case of this being a gift to everyone (sure, banksters will live a bit higher for now, but it has always been the case that small groups of people have managed to shift policy toward their benefit)- better that the Fed hold the debt than say the Chinese...

Mother Nature will call the bluff on it all.  Eventually physical reality trumps all the virtual games we've been playing.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:03 | 4235288 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Bankers can't be held responsible for unpredictable things like recessions. The government must be ready with additional bailouts as needed to save the banking system.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 04:48 | 4235312 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

They haven't even finished the 2008 robbery, er recovery yet.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 06:03 | 4235360 Seer
Seer's picture

God's work is NEVER finshed!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:05 | 4235392 falak pema
falak pema's picture

OT/ On the subject of "One topic that nobody is discussing" :

Putin Play in the Arctic and its Oil potential. It appears its "hotting up". 

They say the same about shale deposits in S Australia and off shore deposits around S America to Angolan Africa sea bed.

New gas finds in Mozambique by Eni and under water reservoir of fresh water in asian zone. 

All this activity in Fossil (deep dangerous and fracking big oil) but no real thrust into solar where the true future lies. The day they can STORE solar energy will be a big break through for humanity.

Energy stays the OTHER agenda along with Financial Shenanigans and MIC militarisation of NSA spook and Internet gooked world. 

The three threads that run the world. Energy/Money (fake haha)/ Guns n spies.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 08:14 | 4235472 Seer
Seer's picture

"but no real thrust into solar where the true future lies"

Well, yes, "solar" is in our future, but I'm thinking of it differently than you (I think).  I'm more in-line with what Gail Tverberg writes of:

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/10/14/two-views-of-our-current-economic-a...

Tech is totally controlled by the current batch of TPTB.  It is this "promise of a better future" that is their trick to maintaining their positions of power.  There are some 7+ billion humans on this planet, most of whom don't so much as have access to money to pay for the simplest of  tech-based "solutions," let alone something like solar panels, batteries (it's STILL and issue of storage) and inverters.  Heck, in another thread someone mentioned the problem that folks in third world countries have in even maintaining (relatively simple) water systems!

Unless there is zero growth there is no "solution" (because with perpetual growth on a finite planet there cannot be infinite amounts of a resource, not to mention infinite space to continue to expand the human population on).

I really do wish it were otherwise, but I prefer to face reality head-on (and I don't think it fair to promote things that cannot be delivered on).

"The three threads that run the world. Energy/Money (fake haha)/ Guns n spies."

Ah! And ALL reports to Mother Nature.  Human folly can only go so far...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:41 | 4235664 new game
new game's picture

seer, you would make a good neighbor to b.s. with...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 13:01 | 4236446 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Thermodynamic Trooth

All energy comes from the Sun, as baked-brick Mercury and ice-gas Saturn, Jupiter, and Neptune illustrate. Trees store solar energy for a long time, grass- not so long... Being self-sufficient with tree-stored solar energy (in chilly North America) requires at least a 5 acre woodlot from which you prune and thin trees for an annual, renewable "dividend" of fire wood.

Current thinking is that you need six inch thick walls (one up from 2 x 4) with good insulation to keep the heat in.

Check out non-standard applications of the Sterling engine (air vs ground temp.)

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 12:10 | 4236234 Jumbie
Jumbie's picture

"but no real thrust into solar where the true future lies"

Well, yes, "solar" is in our future,

Solar is also all of human's past - all fuel on the planet is highly leveraged solar except U (which is arguably solar if you count novas). Fossil fuels were all once things on the surface, absorbing radiation (unless you believe oil was spontaneously created in the crust).

Direct, real-time solar is the new, more difficult extraction.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:32 | 4235419 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

Troika lenders to Greece: what if you don't pay not a single pension in 2014? (!!!)

http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2013/12/troika-lenders-to-greece-what...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 07:41 | 4235436 Heroic Couplet
Heroic Couplet's picture

Translation: Nobody gives a crap what happens to the bank cartel, except the bank cartel.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:06 | 4235553 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

An example of how the banking cartels control countries

http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2013/11/an-example-of-how-banking-car...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 09:48 | 4235697 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The masses have slowed/stopped their spending - for their own reasons.

 

This is what infuriates the elites - if the masses don't spend, the economy tanks - as it has - and the markets are not far behind.

 

Again, the banksters know this and are doing everything possible to show the masses this isn't true.

 

In conclusion, if you want to fuck the banksters, stop spending.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:13 | 4254110 Loophole
Loophole's picture

The two great lessons of life and history:

1. Our only means of knowledge is our rational faculty. We don't get the gospel from a god like the religionists say or get together and subjectively make up "our reality" as the collectivists say; and,

2. People should deal with one another by trade and not by force, which is capitalism. Every alternative to capitalism is some exploiting others with force.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!