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Steve Liesman: "Get Ready, Here It Comes: A December Taper"
Yesterday, we pointed out that according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, roughly 70% of respondents now believe that a taper is coming in either December or January, further accentuated by the recent flipflopping of Fed "bellwether" James Bullard who after holding out for a much delayed reduction in the Fed's monthly flow, admitted that the "probability of a taper had risen ". Today, some additional thoughts on what now seems the consensus from Credit Suisse: "With the labor market looking to be on a more sustained recovery trend following a late summer set-back we think tapering is now virtually inevitable with the decision between a Dec or Jan taper a virtual toss-up that may come down to Fed perceptions of market liquidity in the latter part of December." And just to add fuel to the flame here comes CNBC's own staff "Fed expert" Steve Liesman with "get ready, here it comes: A December taper."
It increasingly appears that tapering is coming at the Fed's meeting next week.
While forecasting the central bank's moves has been an uncertain proposition for most of the past several months—with the conventional wisdom having it wrong in June and September—several of the Fed's own financial tests for reducing its asset purchases look to have been met as it heads into the Dec. 17 meeting. Those include confidence in the outlook, an easing of fiscal drag and uncertainty, and what the Fed sees as more appropriate interest rates.
And while the market has been beyond complacent, and is confident that "this time is different", all it will take for a "tightening of financial conditions" is for one big seller to decide the time has come to take profits, and to ruin the Fed's latest carefully laid plan to make it seem that Tapering (which the Fed will not tire of repeating is not tightening even though even the Fed has now admitted it is the Flow and not the Stock) is priced in, and make a mockery of all "consensus" forecasts yet again.
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Why quote any "personality" from a network which averages 78,000 viewers per day ?
on a good day*
Liesman, the Fed bootlicker
They halt gold and cart out Liesman......where's the camera?
It's all about the yield curve.
Nobody gives a shit about employment or jobs or any other such crap.
Oh and I should add...
I am still heavily short the DJI at 16020's average and long on Gold at 1220's average.
This is the trade that everyone has been talking about for the past 5 years, it's finally here.
Music and Lyrics by J. Yellen and M. Ager
So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Lyrics by J. Yellen!!!!!!
i thought liesman said QE didn't matter to the markets. when did he equivocate?
Yeah right, the same "taper" due in september. They won't taper, they will increase it because 10y rates are about to get over 3% again, ...
.
I hope the FED doesn't taper, that would be a predictable, and therefore containable collapse. I want the unpredictable, unmanaged, cataclysmic collapse.
At this point, even a taper would crash the entire economy.
"It increasingly appears that tapering is coming at the Fed's meeting next week."
Next week in 2017? OK.
LIESman, the Fed jackboot licker.
Fixed it for you.
actually, a decrease in QE can happen whenever the Fed feels it's time to pull the plug. you gotta stop thinking in sensible terms. these guys are out to sink the ship, once and for all, end of story.
The "ship" is their entire power structure. The Fed is not run by teenagers with an end-of-the-world fixation. They are old experienced careful people. Deranged perhaps, but not suicidal.
GOLDMAN..... Derived from a family which was probably in the gold business for a living
LIESMAN.... derived from a family which probably lied to people for a living
FONESTAR... Derived from a family that bugged people on the phone for a living
Donsluck, not good, not bad, just Dons'
Because they are freakin' hilarious, that's why. Like the hyphenated wackjob from PMSNBC who claims that "Obamacare" is the new nigger.
LMAO I saw that clip this morning. That was so fucked up I kept thinking it was The Onion.
It has been mentioned here before, but The Onion may soon be out of business because all you have to do is turn on the MSM box...
Liesman lives up to his name. Actually, this is probably just the Fed trying to limit market froth by 'leaking' this (bogus) information/trial balloon.
I hope not. While satire, the Onion actually does tell the truth filtered through humor. The MSM never tells the truth. Ever.
"Why quote any newsreader from a network which averages 78,000 viewers per day."
Fixed it for you.
"Why quote any newsspeak-reader from a network which averages 78,000 viewers per day."
Fixed it for you as well.
Taper in December or January?????
Three words....BRING IT ON.
I can't wait to see how the mainstream propaganda mill tries to spin the result.
First of all .....suck a dick LIES-man. Second....even if this is confirmed the market will spank Yellen so hard on the run up that Yellen will run back and mewl like a beaten kitten in the corner.
Even if they taper....by say 10 billion or so......don't think for one minute that the Fed hasn't some other mechanism to employ or are employing now to make up for the difference. Look for increases in mopping up shit assets of banks and other institutions.
The Fed's capabilities to launder money have barely been tapped. The Ponzi must continue at all costs.
LoL... What's the definition of insanity again? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? How about, predicting the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.
Thats a Lie,,,,,,
little stevie told me it was.....sarc
Yeah the "burst rate."
The "Taper" is a lie. And its only usefulness as a lie is to trot it out time and again to instill fear when needed most. Hell of a financial system, makes you almost want to look for alternatives before it is too late. Hmm, perhaps something that doesn't take up much space, can only be 'seen' when you're looking for it, and can transport across the planet in an hour.
What could it be....
You can trust Liesman because he predicted the taper in September.. oh wait.
Feels like August all over again. If they ever taper, it will be because nobody will have yet discovered their New & Improved priming mechanism.
A lot of people in ZH will choke on this if it occurs!
I just about blew hot coffee out my nose seeing that headline just now!!
Consider this : Imagine a december taper; a very MInI one by Fed to test market reaction.
A move of 5 Billion less could give Yellen an indication if the WS PD's stomach for QE pumping will get butterflies and go all queasy or not.
The situation of a Strong correction and a Gradual correction must now be on everybody's mind...like a choice between Frankenstein's ghost or Rip Van Winkle's snores.
Soft Landing...get that Hindenberg to land without going up in flames, all along the 2014 tarmac!
Good Luck Yellen!
Quick question here. Once Countries start printing money do they ever stop before their currency collapses?
Ask JAmie Dimon, his neck is truly on the line more so than Yellen's; if the banks cave, and WS hears the JPM walls cracking in liquidity crunch. And on the other side ask the irate Chinese who are fed up with QE.
Yellen has her butt in the Statist camp and her titties firmly in the oligarchy camp, who can squeeze them like they did Ben's marbles! Not easy to be Oligarchy's "bitch" and Statist witch.
Who is the leader and who is the poodle in this crony, incestuous "codependency" ?
In this case, they can stop or continue, the dollar will collapse either way. Default and devaluation, or hyperinflation and devaluation - that's the only question left to answer now.
Head,just stick to drinking it,blowing coffee through your nose can be habit forming!
A lot of people will laugh if you fall for another Fed "head fake."
No, the Fed either does it now or they lose what little credibility they have left now.
They'll probably taper QE by $10 to $15 billion a month.
But if they want to make the most of this opportunity, after warning everybody for months now, they should cut QE by $20 billion or more now!
The Fed has credibility?
Not really, however the Dollar ist still in use. Exciting times.
They will cut soon. Count on it. They might bring stimulus back later after everyone begs, but for now, they'll cut.
Not really. If they do make a grand announcement about a 10% reduction in stimulus, I feel quite certain that the FED will do extra back door stimulus to make up for the loss. The babies on Wall Street will never let go of that tit. KEEP CALM and KEEP SUCKING
I don't believe that any tapering will occur during a season of buyers' madness induced by advertising which never stops. I saw a commercial last night of a little girl asking for a Ford escort while on Santa's knee. What I am saying is that the Fed will not act as the Grinch who stole Christmas. They will give the markets a few months heads up so that the addicts can brace themselves for withdrawal symptoms.
PS There are 21 more days left in December. The Fed better get 'cracking' and begin tapering retroactively.
Get ready for bank account charges(and major withdrawals by sheeple), and a drop in PM's(BTFD) time for sure.
Not necessarily - a miniscule announced taper matched with a ton of jawboning would fulfill the Fed's "promise" to taper (thus closing the "credibility gap") and I would see that coupled with covert Fed countermeasures to counteract the effects so that they could claim, see we told you it was "priced in." But a genuine reduction in flow is not in the cards right now.
Steve LIESman? CNBS? Who watches this nonsense?
I'll wait for Nostrabama to make the call, it should go something like this:
"If my poll numbers fall so will the market so start worshiping me, uh, like uh Mandela"
If we get a small taper, it will be the one and only taper and I certainly don't see it coming in December.
No, no, they're going to do it like the sequester. "Well, we were going to increase it to 150 bil/month, but we're tapering that to only 120 bil."
It is about the flow, not the stock, up until the fed owns enough of the stock (which we are about there) at which point it is all about the stock, not the flow.
There was a ZH-post on flow vs. stock, but I didn't get it. Could you give me a hint, why flow matters now and stock matters later?
Because it is the act of the purchase that drives up the price of bonds. As the quantity of bonds available reduces (due to the Feds' ownership of most of them), they must either move to a different type of security or just stop buying. Either way the stock of securities they hold becomes a dead weight and they can no longer affect long term interest rates. Ironically the work around is bigger and bigger Federal deficits.
The Fed needs to buy local and state debt or the pension funds are going to get Detroited. QE needs to increase. They might not announce it. But they must begin to buy more crap assets.
As always, the Taper crowd is completely ignorant. Even if they actually were stupid enough to taper, they would never announce it. You would never know it was going on.
We need more Detroits. Federal bailouts of states or cities is a mistake.
Why would any local entity use any fiscal responsibility if they knew they would get a Federal bailout.
Imagine a world where trash piles up on the street corners in every large American city, and there is no power, or running water. Imagine all city and state workers no longer showing up to work. They are not going to allow that to happen.
@Quinvarius
So, ultimately, we will definitely see martial law then?
Just more money printing and lies is all I predict.
Until the collapse.
No collapse, look to China. Just a future of polluted miserable life.
Detroitus is now detritus...as so many others will be.
the name is Lies- man truth in advertising
How woud we know that the Fed actually did taper given that it refuses to be audited.
@kw2012 Nominated for comment of the year.
JWillie claims the Fed is printing $200 billion per month.........not saying I believe it because I dont know what lies to believe anymore.....
''The true volume of QE bond monetization purchases is much higher than reported. It is way over $100 billion per month, probably closer to $200 billion per month.''
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-forget-a-taper-fed-to-triple-qe/
Been saying this for a while now and I couldn't possibly agree any more with your sentiment. $85B/month is what they are publicly telling you but who the hell knows how much it really is.
This is one of the reasons why I have hedged with Bitcoin. I don't care how "sharp" or "in front of the curve" some of the peeps at ZH think they are because I follow what the market is telling me. the market is telling me that Bitcoin or something very similar to it will indeed have a role now and when this whole thing eventually crumbles. To me the "sharp" thing to do is to do what works.
And one other note - how do we know how much gold any entity, country, bank has? Do we really know how much gold is or is not out there? How do you protect yourself from your "stacking" efforts being confiscated? Sure, you can try to protect it with physical force but how do you cash it in when they force all purchases to be recorded and registered.
guess you don't cash it in you trade it to some one who has a good or service that you require it must become a medium of transfer at some level whether a bag of grain or some eggs or whatever I have some nice zero degree sleeping bags for barter
I understand that. Cryptocurrencies (bitcoin or some other or small group of them) will eliminate the need to exchange gold/silver coins and walk around with rifles and other firearms. who knows maybe they connect your bitcoin to your DNA sequence. would be kinda hard to steal it then.
Attached to your DNA! Somewhere in Canada, Fonestar just pissed all over his Star Wars sheets.
I'm just throwing that out there. I am not a techie in fact I hate that shit it frustrates me. But, hey why not? All this said, I am looking to start "stacking" a bit and I actually prefer silver to gold. I'm waiting for the charts to tell me the right time to accumulate. I see a further drop (which I've noted on ZH multiple times) to some long term support which is well below $18ish. if this were to occur I will monitor how it acts building a base.
so bitcoin is going to keep you safe now, too?
Being audited is never voluntary. It's up to Congress.
If Bernanke is a legacy man (which I think he is). There will indeed be a pre Bernanke retirement party taper, a small taper but a taper nontheless.
Who is Steve Liesman?
A giant in his own mind... and suit.
Who is Steve Liesman?
Some guy Rick Santelli puts in his place on a daily basis.
They still pay him though......no......I don't know why.
LIESman is a pathetic supporter of government invention in the market place. He loves the Obama Administration and the Fed. He vehemently supports the Fed and Obama against free market supporters like Santelli.
Taper or not, the track up ahead has been dismantled and it's best to jump now.
Gold Beetchez....
Normally I would dismiss Liesman out of hand. However, there may be pillow talk between Yellen and Liesman, giving substance to his comments.
I just threw up a little in my mouth.
Thanks for the visual. Now I need to bleach my brain to get rid of it.
Yellen: "Do you want moar or do you want me to taper off"
Liesman: "Do I have a choice? I didnt use the safe word"
Unless...something bad were to happen like 9/11 thing or something. Prepare for the possibility of yet another false flag operation. If I valued my life, I'd be really cautious about shopping or walking around NYC or Boston.
What the fuck is Boston? Just because some dipshit killed 3 people with a shitty bomb, Boston is now on every terrorist must destroy list?
@Bangin7GramRocks
Maybe you are unaware of the history of Logan Airport?
I remember. They got on planes and left Boston.
Marc Faber says they will print 1 trillion a month, Steve Liesman says less than 85 billion, that's a good spread. Just goes to show you the FED has made all economists and journalists to a bunch of guessers and bullshitters.
If I was a betting man, I would say no change. No change is in a sense, a small taper, since the market needs moar. But the market would shat if there was an actual decrease.
No taper and no increase.
Seems sensible
They always have been, but as you said the spread has gotten bigger so it's more just more apparent. The likes of Krugman didn't suddenly turn into pieces of shit.
"Just goes to show you the FED has made all economists and journalists to a bunch of guessers and bullshitters."
That's the point, always has been. The Fed has to move things around w/o telegraphing their moves. If they'd say- "Everyone to port" everyone would scramble, likely capsizing it all. We'll just continue to float along as they shuffle the deck chairs...
Fuck you LIESman.
That's a good one. What are they going to taper $2? Bring it, taper, I dare ya.
And for the record, Liesman is a piece of shit.
December what year?
The USD as a reserve currency needs to go, there are a bunch of truly deranged psychopaths holding the key to the printer.
Gold goes up and LIESman starts the taper talk? Coincidence?
"And here comes, (another) head fake"
They won't taper. They *can't*, the 6 big banks cannot survive without the Fed's dirty QE fiat injections.
Here is a mathematical calculation of the result of tapering: http://youtu.be/hO_SBQY6fJg
I see that gold is still at bargain prices today.
Secede or Die.
A crash in the weeks before Christmas???!!!
It's gotta be a January taper surely?
the Tribe doesn't believe in Christmas. What better time to financially slay the goyim.
But the tribe feeds off the goy. If the host dies, the parasite dies.
Someone should taper Liesman's mouth shut.
Do you think he would keep talking if someone put a dick in his mouth?
I'm sure they are working on changing the definition. Of what Taper is. They will increase it to $150B yet it will be considered a Taper. This what they do. Change the definition and meanings of words. EVIL.
I bet they do a government speak of saying they are going to cut 10 billion a month...from their proposed increase of 10 billion a month..thereby the 85 billion stays the same...but the Politicians can say they cut 10 billion...sounds about right...
Taper and the triple top simultaneously....sweet
In order for the big players to continue extraction from society, volitility is required.
Taper Talk is the current method for ensuring volitility.
Taper can not happen. The system REQUIRES (by definition) constant increases in debt in order to prevent implosion.
OK, let's see these experts tell us what they think interest rates do post-taper. Go on, since you know so very much and this all driven by cold, hard empirical data and is not some twisted, self-fullfilling feedback loop.
The odds of an increase in 'asset' purchases announced in December just shifted higher. The louder this noise becomes, the more likely that a shocking surprise awaits.
Fucking predictable. Back a few months ago, after the no taper back tracking and the debt ceiling can kicking, I did say the usual suspects in the msm will start jawing about tapering in January. The noise is bound to get worse as we approach the end of the no limit debt ceiling in February.
These bastards are so predictable, it's not even a challenge any more. Once again, there will not be any meaningful taper because they are stuck in a self reinforced iteration of spending and debt, with opportunities for their ilk to pad their accounts playing the crooked casino with free money and insider knowledge. Think they'll give that up?
This must be the dis-information the 0bama regime wants out there, so they use one of their most reliable (and gullable) mouthpieces.
Yep. They need to tank the equities in order to have the excuse to keep the asset purchases running, and in order to keep it running they need to raise the debt ceiling. Red December and January on its way. Then another trip to the moon for the indexes until it breaks. Who knows how many iterations that will take? I'm guessing 2015 but war is the unknown variable which might make this planet only habitable for cockroaches to debate the relative merits of fiat money.
"CNBC's own staff "Fed expert" Steve Liesman".......ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!
Probably some of the most important comment(s) raised following "Ghost of '29" made on ZH on what is coming our way in the next quarter with the exception of the "W" word.
Read my fucking lipe, A ponzi is a Ponzi is a PONZI.
It can only grow to survive. You cannot taper a fucking Ponzi scam.
Ask Mr Madeoff.
If they do taper, it will be small and only to show they can. This is a psychological game now; math defenestrated long ago.
"It increasingly appears that tapering is coming at the Fed's meeting next week."
Is this for Muppet consumtion?
Merrrry Chrissstmas you fucking muppets! Gimme that crutch Tiny Tim. Now bend over investors!
Fuck the taper. QE will officially be 100 B by Dec. 2014. Unofficially it will be a lot more with the Fed buying shares in strategically important companies ( Think Halliburton, not so much Lululemon ).
You cannot wind down a Ponzi.
The real story here is that, IN AN INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT, "Not Tapering" is in fact tapering.
If there is a "Real Taper" TSHTF and Right Now.
There is another REAL Problem, however, that is not talked about. See Shadowstats. M1 - M2 - (SGS)M3 are all trending DOWN. The rates of growth in the M$ are decelerating.
The ONLY question is whether the Collapse - that we've all known was coming - will occur before:
A: the Big Election in 2 years (Hillary: "Mistakes were made...What difference does it make?") and
B: the Coup that will take care of WW3.
Have a nice Day.
CW
Looking at the recent collapse in the usd a taper is anything but priced in. Either way I'll likely be shorting the Fed. just like I did the last FOMC meeting. The simple fact is that multiples and macro financial reporting don't support significant further gains in equity markets without a substancial pullback...
I wonder if they will seasonally adjust the taper like they do with everything else...
Not withstanding Steve's insights (if he had any, he'd be working for a hedge fund making 10x what he does now), there will not be any taper in December for one simple reason... The Senate hasn't had the confirmation vote for Yellen yet. They won't rock the boat.
I highly doubt tapering this time around also.
It would kill the housing market.
In turn it would kill the large investors like pension funds (of which most are wounded and bleeding).
Most sales occuring in my neck of the woods are for CASH.
And a large portion of that is from overseas.
This is unfortunate as it is supporting housing prices at a level that first time buyers are back in the area of not being able to afford to buy.
Really....housing needed to fall to 1998 prices. Around here the lowest we got was 2002 prices and now those prices are up around to the historical prices of 2004. Which, if we all pull out our notes kids, shows us that was a period when housing was already over priced.
So right now, sales are O.K. but predominantly cash transaction. Which means little money going to the banks in the form of interest profit. And....how will THIS turn out?
Steve Liesman was wrong before. He will be wrong again in December, and he will be wrong on January too. Why? Well it's just a guess. My guess is just as good as Liarman's guess. Ha. Maybe not, as I understand causal relationships better than this clown boy & I apparently understand the english language more.
Jim Willie