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The Deer Returns: Stocks Tumble, VIX Most-Inverted Since August 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

S&P futures dumped their most in almost 4 months on marginal volume today as a budget deal (moar fiscal means less moar monetary policy) and a potentially hawkish Stan Fischer on the Fed spread taper fears across all assets with gold lower, Treasury yields higher, and USD rising. New 52-week-lows spiked to 4 month highs as higher beta muppetry took Trannies down most in almost 4 months. The S&P tested back below the payrolls-data and FOMC Minutes launchpad levels from last week as rather notably, while most sectors are still up 5-10% from the debt-ceiling lows, Utilities are now unch. Treasuries weakened back to unchanged from the payrolls print for 5Y (though 7s-130s are -3 to 4bps still). This is the biggest jump in VIX in 2 months as the term structure is the most inverted since US downgrade levels in Aug 2011. Dow <16,000; S&P <1,800; NASDAQ ~4,000 - Retirement Off!

It's a just-greater-than-1% decline in stocks and judging by the decibles on CNBC, the world just ended... pathetic but it's time to bring out the deer...

 

 

S&P Futures dropped the most in almost 4 months... and closed at 3 week lows..

as all the indices rolled over...

 

New 52-Week Lows spiked to its highest in over 2 months...

 

And the advance-decline peaked a few months back... (as breadth remains weak as we warned)

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

The S&P 500 had a bad day... 50DMAs are coming back into focus on all the major indices... the S&P saw its lowest close in 3 weeks.

 

Utilities are now unchanged since the debt-ceiling lows and sectors are giving gains back in a hurry...

 

VIX saw its biggest pop in 2 months as the term structure is the most inverted (short-term risk the most above medium-term) since Aug 2011...

 

Not even JPY carry could save the day as the Fischer-fed news and the ugly 10Y auction didn't help...

 

Treasury yields were banged higher - back to unch from payrolls...

 

Gold and Silver lost a little ground as WTI dropped back to unchanged from payrolls...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:08 | 4237522 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Taper on? I think so. Time to take off some cream.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:16 | 4237560 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

If they taper at all, it will be a smaller amount than is expected.  Santa Claus rally ON.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:17 | 4237565 nuclearsquid
nuclearsquid's picture

What a coincidence.  I actually ate venison today.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:49 | 4237677 negative rates
negative rates's picture

What do you call a deer with no eyes?

No eye deer.

What do you call a deer wit no eyes and no prick?

No fucking eye deer.

What do you call a dead deer wit no eyes and no prick?

Still no fucking eye deer.

And that my friend is exit in zee deer.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:32 | 4237832 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Is this the beginning of the big deflation that comes before the hyperinflation?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:42 | 4237871 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

Mmmmmmmm....beer.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:11 | 4237751 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I have 275-300lbs of elk hanging in my garage @39f right now.  It's a member of the deer family.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 12:16 | 4239736 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

WAS a member of the deer family...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:17 | 4237566 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Bernanke has to leave a credible legacy.....

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:24 | 4237584 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Or at least not be laugh out loud funny. The 'legacy' bar is pretty low at this point.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:31 | 4237612 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

As William said,

The traders have kids that want the GI Joe with the kung fu grip and the wifey wants jewelry so they need to sell, sell, sell.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:50 | 4237673 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

No December 2013 taper, as Bernanke will hold off and let the ugly, fat lady sing when she's ready....IF she's ready.  I still say, like Schiff, that she will expand QE, not rein it in.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:39 | 4237640 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

The taper is coming.

Look at all the clues.

1). Yield curve looks like the damn murderhorn
2). Mega POMO on 19th
3). Fed change over (blame the last guy)
4). Option rollover
5). Right in time for vacuous holiday trading volumes.
6). Budget deal
7). DJI at 2001, 2008 top out resistance level.

Am I the only person making money short selling this??!

Pods.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:43 | 4237654 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Pods? Is that you?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:45 | 4237668 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Is was all set up for tapering in September and Bernanke pulled out his limp dick.   I bet he still can't find the viagra.  No taper.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:53 | 4237686 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Looks like a polish burn job to me.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:58 | 4237705 pods
pods's picture

lol, no, I sign with little letters, as I was excoriated once on another board for being a "little letter people."

pods

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:14 | 4237744 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Definitely not.

SnP 18xx was achieved (see earlier posts) - so correction now just according to plan.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:52 | 4237679 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Not until we see who Yellen's #2 is. Repo tool is a smoke screen to see if the next crash can be mitigated by institutionalizing the Twist over the full spectrum. Since market players (all 80% of them) do not give a shit about duration anymore, adjusting the front end of the curve means nothing for the next market crash. Fed has now officially run out of 'sterilzed' ways of pumping money into the M1. Purchasing the short end is in effect saying the open market desk is now a prop trading group.

Go ahead, think about that one for a min.

Xmas rally was and is all about consumer spending. That's not happening, as per COST this AM. As per JCP & SHLD/HSBC. So for that MOMO we like to call Buster. There is nothing to get him to buy.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:54 | 4237689 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Okay, your fired, need moreinski than that?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:32 | 4237615 A is A
A is A's picture

That's what Liesman says so it must be coming...........

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:45 | 4237656 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If that asshole turns out to be right we're gonna have to pass the hat and take up a collection around here.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:56 | 4237695 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Rabbits and bitcoins only.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 19:18 | 4237975 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

Only way to be hedged. At least with Bitcoin you can bug out at a moments notice. I feel sorry for the ones that are stuck with their dense "stacks".

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 20:10 | 4238111 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Well don't then, we did the #'s and found they wouldn't care about you if the roles were reversed.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:54 | 4237688 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

<-- deer omen
<-- Hindenburg omen

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:09 | 4237524 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

"...higher beta muppetry..."

Does it get any more hilarious?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:11 | 4237528 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Mmmm...The taste of Venison.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:12 | 4237532 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

These tards think there's actually going to be a taper? Hahaha... Just wait til they double QE.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:51 | 4237676 Martial
Martial's picture

He's right you know.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:57 | 4237922 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Rumor has it $85bn would be a reduction from the real figure.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:15 | 4237548 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Nervous fiat wants to bang the year end close before everybody gets out the door ahead of them. This could get interesting in a musical chair kind of way.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:16 | 4237551 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Hindenburg.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:18 | 4237562 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Heisenberg you mean.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:22 | 4237588 sixsigma cygnus...
sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

Iceberg.  Dead ahead.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:47 | 4237665 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"She is made of iron, sir.  I assure you she can and will sink.  The pumps buy you time only.  Nothing more."

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:58 | 4237706 Frozen
Frozen's picture

This is more like a loosely tied floating island of flotsam, some parts more buoyant than others but still dragging the rest down.  And still mostly made of junk.  It will continue to stay above water, but it aint getting you anywhere fast.  Viva la drift

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:36 | 4237840 new game
new game's picture

that word "bang" gets me real nervous...

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:16 | 4237558 market le pew
market le pew's picture

This is not even a correction in the big picture. But I hope that it is a small step towards reality. Apart from that, a bit of volatility should be welcomed by all market participants.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:16 | 4237559 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yes the taper is back on. Certainly QE will be wound down next year as the data continues to show growth.

In other news sucka ass suckers will continue to be sucka ass suckers

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:41 | 4237641 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

LOL

Thank you sincerely.

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:20 | 4237573 fuu
fuu's picture

VeNiSoN bItChEz!

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:19 | 4237575 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

Looks like the trail camera pictures from the woods.  Hope to see a few of those from the tree stand later this week when the wind quits blowing.  Up arrows to the venison comments.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:22 | 4237578 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Or they tank it a bit to give cover for next weeks dovish speak.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:23 | 4237590 GOLD AND SILVER...
GOLD AND SILVER NATZI's picture

I love the deer as much as anyone on ZH, but this sighting seems a bit premature. Please don't turn our beloved deer into the Fox News Alert.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:28 | 4237606 css1971
css1971's picture

The deer, for 1%.

Is it even 1%? That's like a sneeze.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:58 | 4237703 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No, you're thinking about monkeys.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:31 | 4237610 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

What no banging the VXX at the close?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:36 | 4237841 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that's an indicator for a pull back. also "equities might have to catch down with credit" here. I see more "train wreck" (so to speak) than Titanic. DC is a mess right now and that "sets up nicely" for a smack down. "Deer in headlights" say hello to Mr. Wonderful.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:32 | 4237616 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Waiting for the return of reality is worse than waiting for Godot.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:38 | 4237631 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

If I like my deer, can I keep my deer?

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:38 | 4237638 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Oh you crazy lovable deer.  We've missed you.  I thought you drowned in the river of liquidity but thankfully you're still alive.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:42 | 4237650 walküre
walküre's picture

Ah shucks. I just decided to throw in the towel.

Yours truly,

Hugh

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:44 | 4237652 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

$4 billion POMO nut tomorrow, another non-trivial down day would be more significant and deer-warranted.  

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:45 | 4237666 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Raayyyyyy, the dear is back.

When are we going to learn, when oh when oh when are we going to learn. THERE'S GOING TO BE NO MEANINGFUL TAPER. There will be enough to suck in the shorts before all hell breaks loose to the upside. The CB's have barely started on the path to destruction.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:47 | 4237667 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

BTFD

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 17:53 | 4237687 ColoQ
ColoQ's picture

Who cares about any of this when it's trending?  Said no one ever... oh wait.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:27 | 4237787 chump666
chump666's picture

As noted.  Looks like a liquidation trade brewing, VIX players were trying to stave this off, but we got selling across the board gold, USDs etc.  This could be the start of the FED losing control of the stock market, Taper talk was to jawbone the 80 on DXY, it's failing.  I would be watching Asia, esp dip buying on gold and selling USD denominated assets.

There will be no taper, curious to see if there is a collapse on the USD to 2011 lows and the 30s+ blow out. All and all the market needs to be 2% neg to look like a real correction.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:32 | 4237827 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They may even do a token 5 bil taper but at the same time cut the interest on excess reserves due to "low inflation". They are going to get the velocity going a bit. If I had to guess I would say the first reaction is lower which will then turn into a stampede higher.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 18:44 | 4237867 new game
new game's picture

they cut to what 1/4? anyways tend to agree and where does this liq/vel go? r.e.? stocks?

surely not bonds...chasing best returns bubble style...

 

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 19:45 | 4238039 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yeah I think it goes right into stocks.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 20:01 | 4238071 chump666
chump666's picture

I think there is a worry with EUR strength and USD weakness, so I am thinking that we are close to a free-fall on the USD, the Fed maybe aware of this, hence the taper talk.  But a major sell on the USD would upset  their "low inflation" spin, at the same time yields will rise.  More so the 30s (blowing out the mortgage rates), that would be the issue for the Fed, even if they taper the short end.  They won't do it.  Instead ramp on the buying on the short end, they just can't deal with any upward movements on yields.  They are stuck, the dollar could collapse.  Total mess which could slam Yelland's safe haven stock theory.

In summary they could lose control of the curve and stocks at the same time.  I think I will die laughing.

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 21:13 | 4238316 chump666
chump666's picture

On EUR strength:

*Rising short term European yields supporting EUR into year-end

Which will erode the value of ECBs holdings and since the NY Fed prints directly into the ECB...No taper just printing and printing and death

Who will bail out the ECB?

lol

Wed, 12/11/2013 - 19:09 | 4237947 Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

That deer keeps showing up, daring oncoming cars to run over him. But he always seems to jump out of the way at the last moment, receiving minor scratches at worst.

Are you sure that isn't the Roadrunner in disguise?

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