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The Deer Returns: Stocks Tumble, VIX Most-Inverted Since August 2011
S&P futures dumped their most in almost 4 months on marginal volume today as a budget deal (moar fiscal means less moar monetary policy) and a potentially hawkish Stan Fischer on the Fed spread taper fears across all assets with gold lower, Treasury yields higher, and USD rising. New 52-week-lows spiked to 4 month highs as higher beta muppetry took Trannies down most in almost 4 months. The S&P tested back below the payrolls-data and FOMC Minutes launchpad levels from last week as rather notably, while most sectors are still up 5-10% from the debt-ceiling lows, Utilities are now unch. Treasuries weakened back to unchanged from the payrolls print for 5Y (though 7s-130s are -3 to 4bps still). This is the biggest jump in VIX in 2 months as the term structure is the most inverted since US downgrade levels in Aug 2011. Dow <16,000; S&P <1,800; NASDAQ ~4,000 - Retirement Off!
It's a just-greater-than-1% decline in stocks and judging by the decibles on CNBC, the world just ended... pathetic but it's time to bring out the deer...

S&P Futures dropped the most in almost 4 months... and closed at 3 week lows..
as all the indices rolled over...
New 52-Week Lows spiked to its highest in over 2 months...
And the advance-decline peaked a few months back... (as breadth remains weak as we warned)
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
The S&P 500 had a bad day... 50DMAs are coming back into focus on all the major indices... the S&P saw its lowest close in 3 weeks.
Utilities are now unchanged since the debt-ceiling lows and sectors are giving gains back in a hurry...
VIX saw its biggest pop in 2 months as the term structure is the most inverted (short-term risk the most above medium-term) since Aug 2011...
Not even JPY carry could save the day as the Fischer-fed news and the ugly 10Y auction didn't help...
Treasury yields were banged higher - back to unch from payrolls...
Gold and Silver lost a little ground as WTI dropped back to unchanged from payrolls...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Taper on? I think so. Time to take off some cream.
If they taper at all, it will be a smaller amount than is expected. Santa Claus rally ON.
What a coincidence. I actually ate venison today.
What do you call a deer with no eyes?
No eye deer.
What do you call a deer wit no eyes and no prick?
No fucking eye deer.
What do you call a dead deer wit no eyes and no prick?
Still no fucking eye deer.
And that my friend is exit in zee deer.
Is this the beginning of the big deflation that comes before the hyperinflation?
Mmmmmmmm....beer.
I have 275-300lbs of elk hanging in my garage @39f right now. It's a member of the deer family.
WAS a member of the deer family...
Bernanke has to leave a credible legacy.....
Or at least not be laugh out loud funny. The 'legacy' bar is pretty low at this point.
As William said,
The traders have kids that want the GI Joe with the kung fu grip and the wifey wants jewelry so they need to sell, sell, sell.
No December 2013 taper, as Bernanke will hold off and let the ugly, fat lady sing when she's ready....IF she's ready. I still say, like Schiff, that she will expand QE, not rein it in.
The taper is coming.
Look at all the clues.
1). Yield curve looks like the damn murderhorn
2). Mega POMO on 19th
3). Fed change over (blame the last guy)
4). Option rollover
5). Right in time for vacuous holiday trading volumes.
6). Budget deal
7). DJI at 2001, 2008 top out resistance level.
Am I the only person making money short selling this??!
Pods.
Pods? Is that you?
Is was all set up for tapering in September and Bernanke pulled out his limp dick. I bet he still can't find the viagra. No taper.
Looks like a polish burn job to me.
lol, no, I sign with little letters, as I was excoriated once on another board for being a "little letter people."
pods
Definitely not.
SnP 18xx was achieved (see earlier posts) - so correction now just according to plan.
Not until we see who Yellen's #2 is. Repo tool is a smoke screen to see if the next crash can be mitigated by institutionalizing the Twist over the full spectrum. Since market players (all 80% of them) do not give a shit about duration anymore, adjusting the front end of the curve means nothing for the next market crash. Fed has now officially run out of 'sterilzed' ways of pumping money into the M1. Purchasing the short end is in effect saying the open market desk is now a prop trading group.
Go ahead, think about that one for a min.
Xmas rally was and is all about consumer spending. That's not happening, as per COST this AM. As per JCP & SHLD/HSBC. So for that MOMO we like to call Buster. There is nothing to get him to buy.
Okay, your fired, need moreinski than that?
That's what Liesman says so it must be coming...........
If that asshole turns out to be right we're gonna have to pass the hat and take up a collection around here.
Rabbits and bitcoins only.
Only way to be hedged. At least with Bitcoin you can bug out at a moments notice. I feel sorry for the ones that are stuck with their dense "stacks".
Well don't then, we did the #'s and found they wouldn't care about you if the roles were reversed.
<-- deer omen
<-- Hindenburg omen
"...higher beta muppetry..."
Does it get any more hilarious?
Mmmm...The taste of Venison.
These tards think there's actually going to be a taper? Hahaha... Just wait til they double QE.
He's right you know.
Rumor has it $85bn would be a reduction from the real figure.
Nervous fiat wants to bang the year end close before everybody gets out the door ahead of them. This could get interesting in a musical chair kind of way.
Hindenburg.
Heisenberg you mean.
Iceberg. Dead ahead.
"She is made of iron, sir. I assure you she can and will sink. The pumps buy you time only. Nothing more."
This is more like a loosely tied floating island of flotsam, some parts more buoyant than others but still dragging the rest down. And still mostly made of junk. It will continue to stay above water, but it aint getting you anywhere fast. Viva la drift
that word "bang" gets me real nervous...
This is not even a correction in the big picture. But I hope that it is a small step towards reality. Apart from that, a bit of volatility should be welcomed by all market participants.
Yes the taper is back on. Certainly QE will be wound down next year as the data continues to show growth.
In other news sucka ass suckers will continue to be sucka ass suckers
LOL
Thank you sincerely.
VeNiSoN bItChEz!
Looks like the trail camera pictures from the woods. Hope to see a few of those from the tree stand later this week when the wind quits blowing. Up arrows to the venison comments.
Or they tank it a bit to give cover for next weeks dovish speak.
I love the deer as much as anyone on ZH, but this sighting seems a bit premature. Please don't turn our beloved deer into the Fox News Alert.
The deer, for 1%.
Is it even 1%? That's like a sneeze.
No, you're thinking about monkeys.
What no banging the VXX at the close?
that's an indicator for a pull back. also "equities might have to catch down with credit" here. I see more "train wreck" (so to speak) than Titanic. DC is a mess right now and that "sets up nicely" for a smack down. "Deer in headlights" say hello to Mr. Wonderful.
Waiting for the return of reality is worse than waiting for Godot.
If I like my deer, can I keep my deer?
Oh you crazy lovable deer. We've missed you. I thought you drowned in the river of liquidity but thankfully you're still alive.
Ah shucks. I just decided to throw in the towel.
Yours truly,
Hugh
$4 billion POMO nut tomorrow, another non-trivial down day would be more significant and deer-warranted.
Raayyyyyy, the dear is back.
When are we going to learn, when oh when oh when are we going to learn. THERE'S GOING TO BE NO MEANINGFUL TAPER. There will be enough to suck in the shorts before all hell breaks loose to the upside. The CB's have barely started on the path to destruction.
BTFD
Who cares about any of this when it's trending? Said no one ever... oh wait.
As noted. Looks like a liquidation trade brewing, VIX players were trying to stave this off, but we got selling across the board gold, USDs etc. This could be the start of the FED losing control of the stock market, Taper talk was to jawbone the 80 on DXY, it's failing. I would be watching Asia, esp dip buying on gold and selling USD denominated assets.
There will be no taper, curious to see if there is a collapse on the USD to 2011 lows and the 30s+ blow out. All and all the market needs to be 2% neg to look like a real correction.
They may even do a token 5 bil taper but at the same time cut the interest on excess reserves due to "low inflation". They are going to get the velocity going a bit. If I had to guess I would say the first reaction is lower which will then turn into a stampede higher.
they cut to what 1/4? anyways tend to agree and where does this liq/vel go? r.e.? stocks?
surely not bonds...chasing best returns bubble style...
yeah I think it goes right into stocks.
I think there is a worry with EUR strength and USD weakness, so I am thinking that we are close to a free-fall on the USD, the Fed maybe aware of this, hence the taper talk. But a major sell on the USD would upset their "low inflation" spin, at the same time yields will rise. More so the 30s (blowing out the mortgage rates), that would be the issue for the Fed, even if they taper the short end. They won't do it. Instead ramp on the buying on the short end, they just can't deal with any upward movements on yields. They are stuck, the dollar could collapse. Total mess which could slam Yelland's safe haven stock theory.
In summary they could lose control of the curve and stocks at the same time. I think I will die laughing.
On EUR strength:
*Rising short term European yields supporting EUR into year-end
Which will erode the value of ECBs holdings and since the NY Fed prints directly into the ECB...No taper just printing and printing and death
Who will bail out the ECB?
lol
That deer keeps showing up, daring oncoming cars to run over him. But he always seems to jump out of the way at the last moment, receiving minor scratches at worst.
Are you sure that isn't the Roadrunner in disguise?