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The Complete, Unabridged Confusion Over The Fed's [December|January|March] Taper
Bloomberg has been kind enough to summarize the epic confusion gripping the sellside on the topic of the Taper, which once again everyone thought would not take place until 2014, and now there is palpable panic may hit as soon as next week. Kudos to the Fed on its "transparent" communication strategy.
Below is Bloomberg's recap of the main viewpoints on when FOMC will start to Taper, with estimates ranging from FOMC’s Dec. 17-18 meeting in Washington to Jan. or March, based on published research.
Barclays
- Fed will wait until March to taper
BMO
- Do not expect “Yuletide Taper”
BNP
- QE to end by early 2015
BoT-Mitsubishi
- Fed should take immediate action on QE taper
- Fed officials dragging feet on QE exit
Capital Economics
- Jobs data points to tapering this month
- QE tapering this month “very close call”
Citi
- Expectations for Fed tapering in Dec. increase in poll
- Fed to discuss tapering in “concrete” way
CRT
- Fed “apprehensive” about impact of tapering
DB
- USD to benefit as jobs data seals Dec. taper
GMP
- Payrolls “not good enough” for Dec. taper
GS
- Jobs data strong, still expect March taper
HFE
- Payroll gain points to taper as soon as next month
ING
- Jobs data suggests tapering is closer
JPMorgan
- Nov. jobs report “smells a little like tapering”
- Fed cut to IOER rate would complicate communications
Miller Tabak
- Drop in jobless rate signals Dec. QE taper
Mizuho
- Economy not yet ripe for tapering
Morgan Stanley
- Fed to taper in March, cut UR threshold to 6%
MUFJ
- Aug.-Nov. labor market data supports Dec. taper
Natixis
- U.S. economy’s fragility urges Fed caution
Newedge
- Fed could go beyond tapering next week
Nomura
- 37% See Fed tapering next week
- Expect no Dec. tapering
Pimco’s Gross
- Odds of Fed tapering are 50% in Dec., clear that Fed wants out of QE
Renaissance
- Fed will wait to taper in 1Q instead of Dec.
Sunrise
- Taper-tightening link looks stronger on payrolls
TD
- Fed’s tapering-isn’t-tightening message begins to resonate
- Odds of Jan. tapering now above 50%
* * *
Good luck.
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Foreward! guidance
...just shut the fuck up peasants, there's enough circuses for everybody... now back to work... or no bread... we'll do as we damned well please even if irresponsible and fucking things up to Biblical proportions...
I'll believe taper when I see it. Talking about its "potential" is simply how the FED engages in monetary policy (PR releases) since they have no other means other than printing asset bubbles up or talking them down with whay might happen. lol.
The only thing that might happen is what has been happening: MOAR!
So it's printing and talking. Professional talkers is what they have become. Don't fall for it.... they have to increase QE because it's the only thing keeping the banking system alive.
Ben and Jan have that deer in the headlights look in their eyes
If the thought of taper even enters their empty mind's the market "crashes" for 2 days.
I think on June 19 and June 20 of this year the dow jones dropped about 450 points because Uncle Ben just hinted of a taper. The only reason the stock prices are so high today is because of QE. As taper increases, stock prices will decrease. If they stop it abruptly, the world markets will crash. So much for the wealth effect of high stock prices. Of course the true state of the world economies will only be known if there is no QE. We don't know how bad this artificially propped up, wealth effect driven economy really is right now because it's mostly fake due to QE. And of course many people think the books are cooked. If true, then our economy is much, much worse than it actually is. Let's hope they aren't cooked. We'll have to see what the future has in store for us.
I'll go out on a limb here and say they will both do a press release talking about how some number isn't in a range, ergo the Fed cannot taper. Does anyone have vegas odds on this yet?
Nah, let's get the taper going because:
A ) Gold will no longer be the whippiong boy for this trade
B) The sooner QE Redux will arrive once the market collapses from "Cold Turkey" withdrawals
just make it simple -
long Russell to infinity w/ infinite leverage --- short silver til they are paying you to take it.
Sounds so fucking ridiculous but this trade has been AMAZING since '11...and all that matters is the trend...actually, really.
I don't see a taper unless the taper of the taper is going to be tapered,, and the taper should take place in March 2014 if the taper is expected in June 2014 on the taper of the possible jobs numbers when tapering is likely and the June deadline is exceeded in June when tapering is again likely. ,,,GATE
Now I get it!!!!
Play on mate!
A ) Gold will no longer be the whippiong boy for this trade
You make it sound as if there is this free, unfettered capitalist market where one can buy and sell gold based on the logic of government largesse and malfeasance. Now that's funny.
Truth is, gold will be whipped as long as the USD is global reserve currency. It's a matter of national security and interest, as outlined by that old ex-foreign affairs pig Madeline Albright.
There is no gold trade. I watched real time data second by second as QE3 was being announced by Bernoke, and gold had huge bids under it that were all taken out.
This is one massive manipulated arena. There is no trade, only national policy.
Yes, and the UST, ESF, PPT, FED and bullion banks are up to their eyeballs in criminal activity in relation to gold and silver.
Seems many seem to miss that important point. Why? I have no fucking idea....it is all being done in plain sight.
That's an insult to pigs, dude.
No one is trading gold based on taper except the Central Bankers. And what they are doing is shitting their pants. As long as gold is getting hit, you know that they know a taper is impossible. Its all they can do to send a message.
Agreed and NOPE-1004, the "sound like" is precisely the same thinking you explained. It's not until (if never?? Maybe?) the CB's are forced to move the needle below the "nuclear red line" they've drawn. It's their problem and we must decide which side to be on and operate accordingly.
more than likely. If they had any hope of doing this without destroying the stock/bond market, this taper thig is easy. Reduce purchases by 5 bil a month,every month, until there is no moar QE. Sure, it will take awhile, 17 months, but it will give the markets and the world more than enough time to adjust, and the markets to adjust to a non-QE world, and it would give the fedres and usd a lot more credibility. Pretty easy way out, and since it is so easy, and they havent even done this token amount of tapering, they are pretty much admitting they are trapped, and totally full of shit, and in reality, 85 bil a month isnt gonna do the trick at some point. They can only talk up the taper and then change their mind so many times before even the paid whores on tv wont parrot the party line anymore, then they are really fucked. and by they, I really mean WE
Yes, this sounds so easy but markets A.K.A. blood sucking algo HFT nano traders care about the next millisecond and will react once the first leak of real reduction of heroin takes place. Nice try.
you seem to be misunderstanding me. the point of that post was to show that they have no credibility, and they cant gracefully exit QE, not to make a realistic suggestion, nor propose a likely course of action. what i said was what i thought they would do if they had the option, or credibility, when they have niether. they can make a token cut this month, or at the first of the year, but one way or another, they will have to undo it, and probably print even moar
Forward...dumb-asses
No Taper....buy your bullets now
Fudging Every Dollar
I usta like fudge
The goods new out of this, no more need for consultants and experts, go and buy a dart board and a few darts for forward guidance, I have heard that a lot can be told from your dogs first shit of the morning.
None of these assclowns mention the fact that they will obviously increase QE.
100 bucks on black! No Red! No Black...wait...Red!
Actually I would like to postpone my decision until shortly after the spin!
I's not really gambling when you own the casino.
Heads I win, tails you lose.
And the winner is....
Green.
You never had a chance.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=DGS10&s[1][range]=1yr
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=MORTG&s[1][range]=1yr
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=SPCS20RSA&s[1][range]=1yr
The ONLY way for QE is UP!
As the Lone Ranger says, "HI O Silver, Away" from these manipulating butt heads!
Quite certain that uncertainty will continue...
Transparency
Transparency in the New Normal is when the fart has lots of juicy chunks that stain through the tan slacks.
Now that's transparency!
QE is essentially the same thing as funding deficits by printing money:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/12/12/1721592/guest-post-the-helicopter-...
At the end of the day how can this administration possibly give that up?
It astounds me that any financial institution thinks there is a chance of a taper in December. The ramifications of a taper are still uncertain in terms of the impact it will have on asset classes. The Fed won't risk it nor do they need to. When there is 3 or 4 months of 200k+ Non Farm Jobs created and all threats of deflation look miniscule then perhaps , a $5 or $10 billion reduction. You just need to look at what the 10 year yield is doing and the stock market to realise investors don't believe the economy is strong enough to withstand a taper.
Whilst I am at it :
For a trading opportunity just before the announcement buy the dow, (it will be off about 50-70 points) and it'll finish up 150+ , also buy the Euro/USD and £/USD
I'm sorry I didn't read everything and just glossed over. Was that a list of criminal co-conspirators?
Wait a minute.
Turn the clock back even more, Tyler. It STARTED in Oct 2012 just 1 month before the election. It was a huge risk (Romney led in the polls at that time via that first debate) for Bernanke because if he did this and Romney won, chances are the Fed would have had its charter changed to lose "independence" and that loss would have been Bernanke's legacy.
So why did they do it? Utter, outright desperation.
The only thing that has changed in the numbers since then is the labor partic. rate and the accumulated excess reserves on deposit at the Fed amounting essentially to the sum of all QE yet performed. In other words, the money left the Fed and wound up back at the Fed.
So why, just 6 months after they started this, did they leak to Hilsenrath in May and have the word "taper" first appear? What changed in those 6 months?
Stop it already, math makes any tapering impossible now...
Math also makes not tapering impossible at some point. We are soooo fucked.
On the brighter side, perhaps when shit goes BOOM! and we aren't able to import as much oil, perhaps the federal government will become a whole lot less relevant.
"What diffrence does it make"?
They may taper in Dec,Jan or March...but by the end of 2014 QE will be 100B+
The very nature of a Ponzi is that it can only get bigger...until it can't...
The market will tank before any taper occurs. There - said it.
In a show of respect, the Bernanke will defer to Yellen, for he knows it's her problem now....
proverbial bag holder
If we were not in a secular depression and the FED wasn't propping the equities markets 50+% they would have ended QE and raised rates last year.
The rest is bullshit: delusional self-deception, cognitive fog, hope-seeking in an untenable situation.
"Hope you didn't put much money on that bet, Dawg. These fuckers are going to print hard enough to wake the dead. They'll print like mo'fos, print like mad men, print like fly pimps. Print until their eyes bleed. They will print via the swaps, via bank bailouts and mergers, via fixed Treasury yields, via real honest-to-God negative interest rates, via loans to banks on no collateral, via payroll tax reductions, and in the end via actual fiat paper instruments which they might very well drop in bails from actual mutherfucking helicopters. They will not give two figs what anyone thinks. Here is why. Because this is the Goddamned end of it my friend. There is no accounting beyond this point. There will be no history of it. No one to take notes of rates of exchange, or of the graft and violence, nobody to worry about the deficit or the GDP or the national debt of any nation large or small under the blazing Goddamned sun. End. Of. It. Does anyone bitch about how Rome totally debased their coinage at the end? Hell no. But whoever did it had enough to hand and grabbed some land with a nice vineyard and sat back and waited for the Middle Ages to start 700 years further on. And that's what a singularity is about. Anything that passes through is striped of all meaning. Nothing we think is important now will remain so beyond the event horizon. Nobody will remember, nobody will write about it, nobody will be held to any standard. Ever for evar. So yeah, they'll print like the mad crazed terrorists they are. Because they have nothing to lose, and maybe something to gain. Maybe a dollar. Maybe a day. Maybe a slim chance to escape with some of the loot. Whatever the fuck advantage they see in it, for themselves and their elite crap wanking buddies, they will full-on-full-time-fucking do it to advantage. Watch for it, Dawg. It's totally on this time, on like Donkey Kong. And when the dust is settled in a generation hence it's going to have become another unbelievable episode among the ages of men." -cougar_w
Stands the test of time, doesn't it?
I think it does.
One Day at a Time
"do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own"
Mumbling fumbling scratching grasping clutching. Two cocks for sister Janet and yuletide log up ben's arse.
The Hyenas licking their chops, begging. What a pitiful bunch of maggots.
The Scumgress & Lobbyists backslap and high five. SICK
Let the stupid fucks BTATH......Dogs will NEVER get out!
Its pretty telling that they havent even been able to taper by 10 bil a month, 5 from UST, 5 from MBS. Just goes to show you just how fragile this facade of an economy really is. The idea that 5 years after this 'recession', it still cant stand on its own with a modest 15 % reduction in fed printing. That more people cant see through this blows my mind. The banks/fed/gov really have an iron-fisted control over what gets said to the people of this country. Its pathetic that most are still dumb enough to believe it. Years of centrally planned education at its finest, producing people just smart enough to wipe their own ass or poor piss out of a boot, but not think for themselves, because that it far too dangerous, citizens... Also goes t show you that no one else wants our debt anymore. I think china announcing they will no longer be buying our debt is also a big indicator that the fed cannot taper UST. If china isnt buying it, many other countries will probably think its a bad idea for them to continue doing so and follow suit. Who else but the fed does that leave, since obviously something akin to a balanced budget is not going to occur within the concievable future. Plus, its not just our 1 T deficit that needs to be funded, Janet will need to fire up the press and buy the 200T+ in unfunded liabilities too. Taper..ha.. GET TO WORK, MRS CHAIRMAN
and the politicians have the Feds back...they came out with a budget that spends more money they do not have....and savings in 10 years.....that shoud be good for the taper..LOL
Tapir.....
A tapir is a large browsing mammal, similar in shape to a pig, with a short, prehensile snout. Tapirs inhabit jungle and forest regions of tthe District of Columbia.....South America, Central America, and Southeast Asia.
Oh wait, ;)
we have a better chance of one of those shitting on our carpet than any QE tapering, its piled to high and deep, we're stuck on this ship like Capt. Smith.....
QE to end by early 2015.
Ha ha ha ho ho ho!
I think its as clear as the US policy in the Middleeast and the rollout of Obamacare. Its clearly unclear
The confusion extends all the way from and between Decembuary to Octember.