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Guest Post: Ukraine’s Two New Energy Deals

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Scott Belinksi of OilPrice.com,

If one was to believe the picture that most Western media outlets are painting, Ukraine has been lost to Russia. Though the country fought valiantly to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union in Vilnius, Lithuania last month, President Viktor Yanukovych suspended negotiations with the EU at the last possible moment, betraying Ukrainians everywhere. Two recent energy deals that Ukraine has reportedly made, one with Russia and the other with Slovakia, however, show that the reality of the situation is slightly more complex.

Claiming that Yanukovych had always wanted negotiations with the EU to fail would arguably be giving him and his advisors too little credit as political strategists. In terms of public opinion, signing the Association Agreement would have all but secured Yanukovych’s re-election in 2015, whereas his step down from the deal has visibly shaken his legitimacy as President to its core. Rather, too little attention is given to the very real economic pressure Russia has placed on Ukraine and the EU’s reluctance or inability to offset Putin’s ‘trade war’. Furthermore, while Yanukovych did not sign the Association Agreement in Vilnius, he did not commit his country to Putin’s rival ‘Eurasian Union’ either.

Prior to the Vilnius Summit in November, the Ukrainian government found itself between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, Russia was imposing exorbitant gas prices and devastating economic sanctions on Ukraine’s already fragile economy. By October 10th, 2013, trade between the two countries had fallen by 25% and prices for Russian gas, on which Ukraine remains dependent, stood at $420/1000 m3, $50 more than the European average. On the other hand, EU leaders refused to hold tripartite negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, instead using all their leverage to insist that jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, convicted of abuse of office and embezzlement in 2011, be freed.

All of this comes on top of Ukraine’s dire situation. The country faces $10 billion in principal and interest payments next year and has the third-highest default probability in the world. In an address following his decision to suspend negotiations with the EU, Yanukovych stated, "I would have been wrong if I hadn't done everything necessary for people not to lose their jobs, receive salaries, pensions and scholarships.” While many Ukrainians and outside observers may not take the President’s words at face value, it is no lie that, had Ukraine signed the agreement, economic disaster would have been imminent.

Two energy deals

As there was little the EU could/would offer to offset the immediate Russian reprisals on Ukraine’s economy, the government renounced signing the Association Agreement. However, two gas deals currently in the works show that, far from being sucked forever into Russia’s orbit, Ukraine will continue to flirt with both East and West and, most of all, move towards energy independence.

While the exact details of the deal Yanukovych has hammered out with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi last Saturday remain unknown, Edward Lucas, the international editor of The Economist claims that gas prices for Ukraine will be brought down to $200/1000m3 with a $5 billion cherry payment on top. Lucas also claims that Yanukovych has promised that Ukraine will join Russia’s customs union as part of the deal, though this has been virulently denied by the Russian administration. At the same time, payments for Russian gas transferred from Gazprom to Naftogaz between October and December 2013 have been deferred until the Spring of 2014, all of which gives Ukraine some much-needed breathing room.

On the Western front, however, Ukraine agreed on the conditions for a gas deal with Slovakia for importing European Union gas through Slovak pipelines. These new flows, including gas from Poland and Hungary, could exceed 10 billion cubic meters annually, enough to meet Ukraine’s entire import needs. The move, which has long been heralded as a strategy to curb Ukraine’s energy dependence on Russia, comes less than two weeks after negotiations with the EU broke down, questioning the dominant narrative that the Ukrainian government is content to sign itself away to Moscow.

 


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Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:35 | Link to Comment dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

Everybody here is missing the point on Ukraine.  Its all about getting the corruption out of the system.  The EU deal would go a long way to doing that.  There will never be prosperity in the Ukraine until the corruption is rooted out no matter who they deal with.  so in the long run, the EU deal is better.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Maybe you missed the recent news about growing corruption throughout the EU?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

growing? slightly decreasing from high level, imho. what is indeed growing is lobbyism. a different form of corruption, again imho

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Out of the frying pan into the fire.

Brussels and the corruption of the EU make Eastern corruption look civil and modest.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:51 | Link to Comment hookah
hookah's picture

So you never visited Ukraine before.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

What's the point?

Most people don't know what the fuck is going on in their own country. Example: US.

I just know that the EU/US is a more powerful enemy of freedom than Russia, therefore, the benefit of the doubt goes to Russia.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ladies and gentlemen, the Second World War* and it's sequel the Cold War** are over

stop looking for the moral high ground (last seen in * and **), there is none anymore and anywhere

the US, it's NATO allies, Japan, China, Iran, the GCC, Russia, it's allies, Turkey, Brazil, India, etc. etc. are just power groups of people. sometimes called nations or states or alliances or trade blocks or whatever

Freedom is not what's about. It's about trade, finance, control, security, dominance, military and civil spending, jobs, social stresses, technology and change

the response to 9/11 could have been one that would have kept this high ground. but it's history, now. now this ground is lost

and so I think it's foolish to sigh for a sabre-rattling authoritarian sub-democratic nationalist and imperialist Russian... if you aren't at least a cultural if not ethnic Russian or at the very least a useful ally

which reminds me that I sometimes wish Russia, Ukraine and Turkey would join the EU, just to drive in that I do not consider myself on any moral high ground, neither

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Salah
Salah's picture

Excellent, Ghordius

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

dup

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Banjo
Banjo's picture

The people with money are corrupt. They just dress it up as having earned it and other such things.

Nothing new goes back to the days of Kings and Queens.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Stock Jobber
Stock Jobber's picture

So in order to have virtue one must stay as poor as possible?  That should be easy...

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 20:48 | Link to Comment wizardofOZ
wizardofOZ's picture

Nope.... think of it like playing on hardcore level

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 03:57 | Link to Comment Banjo
Banjo's picture

See you probably think having 50K or 100K in your bank account is having money?

 

I'm thinking a few billion or at least a few thousand million. Hope that makes it a little clearer.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

Do you think that the corruption disappeared from Poland, Hungary or Slovakia after they joined EU? A BIG mistake. It's the same as before if not bigger due to euro money flowing from brusels. The only difference is that these countries must pay much more also to western bankers (moar debt, do not forget on ESM) and brusels and play the game US and friends play - which means be part of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Do not be fooled by the corporate media fairytales.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

There is something really fucked up when you can buy Russain Gas from Germany cheaper than what Russia wants to charge you. From what I understand there are some new deals for gas with Shell and Chevron

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/shell-to-drill-first-wells-in-10-billion-ukrainian-project.html

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/business/international/chevron-and-ukraine-sign-deal-on-shale-gas.html?_r=0

 

As soon as some of this additiional gas is available, Ukraine will be that much closure to being energy independent.

 

But at the end of the day this isn't about just energy. The mafia runs both countries (Russia/Ukraine) and both peoples are sick of it. 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:13 | Link to Comment skifff
skifff's picture

"As soon as some of this additiional gas is available, Ukraine will be that much closure to being energy independent." - there you go!

And that is exactly why Russia builds "North stream" and "South stream" pipelinesaround Ukraine, so Ukraine becomes compleetly independant of Putin's dictatorship asap!;-)))

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Blood Spattered...
Blood Spattered Banner's picture

Seriously?  Ask a Greek, Spaniard or Portugese how their "corruptless EU" is doing.

Turn off your fucking TV and open your eyes. 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

How did those freewheeling capitalist citizens elect a socialist?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I don't understand the rush to join Western Europe; do they want to be a Socialist "paradise" like France with exorbitant taxes and overunn with Muslims, or Greece with a German boot on it's head, or Cyprus and Brussels bail-in's (deposit theft)?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Mexicans dream of living in the USA even though they can be fat at home........some people like the idea of moving to neighbouring countries like Ukrainians to the UK

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Must be some sort of a death wish unless they are implicitly
voting for a pan-Slavic thing stretching till the Atlantic ocean.

The latter would be an entirely different story, non pleasant but the other invasion at least being fought off.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:12 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

There is not much to understand when you have been under the yoke of Russia for the last 100 years. When a few million get sent to Siberia and another few million get starved to death and then people disappear and end up in jail for 40 years and all your worldly possessions are stolen from you and your not allow to travel anywhere and your people are displaced all over the empire and your country is hollowed out and raped.....I could go on but I'm not sure the folks here would understand.....

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:19 | Link to Comment skifff
skifff's picture

"when you have been under the yoke of Russia for the last 100 years" you should make your facts strait it's not 100 years it's 1000's of years...;-)

What they call Ukraine nowdays is actually Russia... but you right people that call themselfs ukranians exist for about 100 years.;-) 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:09 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Are you fucking retarded? Learn some history dumb fuck...

 

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment skifff
skifff's picture

Only dumb fuck in here is you, and it's obvious to most people in here...;-)

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment TheLoveArtist
TheLoveArtist's picture

I think what is going one here is this, if you look up Ukrainian oligarchs you see most are Jewish, and they grabbed the goodies after Kuchma came to office and also the color revolution.  Now they want to join the EU so they can cash out and diversify by selling shares of these companies.  I think they are afraid that they will have their companies at some point and time taken away from them.  What better than to join the EU and legitimize their thefts and cash out on the stockmarkets of Europe.   Typical Jewish modus operandi.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment UpAndComing
UpAndComing's picture

There's always one...

I know a Jewish oligarkh who started out with just a jeans and computer of the back of a truck ands made his way to being one of the richest men in Odessa by simply being a smart businessman. One of the few that actually didn't hire goons to kill...albeit there were plenty of bodyguards and various issues to iron out pretty much every day. It's funny to me when people throw out the shit you just did and then others just nod like little bobbleheads. If you actually look at some of the richest names in that country, they are mostly ethnic ukrainians and that means your post and propoganda is fucking useless.

Rinat Akhmetov, Igor Kolomoisky,Victor Pinchuk,Gennady Bogolyubov,Serhiy Taruta,Vitaly Gaiduk,Oleg Mkrtchyan,Oleksandr Yaroslavsky,Volodymyr Boiko,Victor Nusenkis,Yury Kosiuk, Aleksei Martynov,Andrei Berevsky,Vasily Khmelnitsky,Sergei Tigipko,Evgeny Sigal, Petro Poroshenko,Leonid Baisarov.

I think your hatred is just for wealthy people in general...although some did happen to be of the faith you despise more...as your sky cake is better than their sky cake.

The dude I mentioned earlier uses his money to renovate the city he's from. You should channel your hatred into useful energy...and do something useful too.

Wishin you a pleasant day

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment UH-60 Driver
UH-60 Driver's picture

When the rich make war it's the poor that die.

The best way to rid yourself of an enemy is to make them a friend.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:06 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Yeah, that'll work until the ass rapings start again.

With that kind of logic, maybe Americans should go over to North Korea and embrace Kim Jong-Un? make him a friend..

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:30 | Link to Comment edotabin
edotabin's picture

Aren't we all friends on facebook ?

 

/s

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:52 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Yes, it is called the Rodman defense and comes with a free tat of your choice.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Interesting. It turns out that one of the world's largest EMS (Electronic Mfg Services) companies, JABIL (of St. Petersburg, FL), has a plant I western Ukraine.

How convenient for them, to get NG from Poland and Hungary, where they also have Mfg plants. 

On top of that, having the Ukraine plant ~ 50 miles from the EU, but not inside its borders (not inside the EU laws + bureaucracy), they can actually make things at affordable prices and still make a decent profit.  Clearly agent "Ona Top" did her job, to ensure the Happy Ending for the Executive Power Players.  ;-)

Tim Main (CEO) & execs must be smiling.  "X-Mass Bonus! Bump!"

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"The country faces $10 billion in principal and interest payments next year and has the third-highest default probability in the world."

Hell.....that's just a few days of Fed pomo. Why doesn't President Viktor Yanukovych just give BernakYellen a call for a bridge loan?

/sarc

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

"On the Western front, however, Ukraine agreed on the conditions for a gas deal with Slovakia for importing European Union gas through Slovak pipelines. 

These new flows, including gas from Poland and Hungary,"

 

European Union gas also came from Gazprom.

Go here mazamascience.com/oilexport, select the gas button and select Hungary and Poland -- both are gas importers, not exporters.

Russia is the big kahuna and they are slowly converting that into dictating other country policies.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I believe a longterm chess match is going on. 

Also important is the jockying over who and how middle eastern gas can get to Europe to balance out existing Russian suuplies.

Also European gas is cheaper regardless that the primary supplier is presently Russia,

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Ukraine is split between Western Ukraine which is Poland really and Eastern Ukraine which is Russian. The EU is being stupid, Russia cannot afford to lose Ukraine as a buffer state and the EU cannot afford economic aid to Ukraine.

Best option is to make Ukraine a gateway inside both Customs Unions able to give Russia a reason to keep factories there and the EU scope to set up JVs. Ukraine is run by gangsters and will simply siphon EU money off to Swiss banks......Ukrainians need a stable ecoomy and only Russia has the energy sources and Ukraine could serve Western Europe if China had less access to the EU

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

You're a fucking retard, Geezuss learn some fucking geography/history before you open your shit trap. 

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Jesus man. "You're a fucking retard". You call everyone on here who is not a Western Ukrainian right wing nationalist a fucking retard. Fuck off, nobody is listening but you. Your party is a tiny fraction of Ukraine, catholic and tied to Poland. The Ukraine has never been united, the cunts in the extreme west have always be calling everyone else fucking retards. You just carry on the tradition. You guys sure cleaned out the Jews when the German Army handed you the chance eh? Human rights my ass.

You have already called me a fucking retard, so big deal. If you want to play that game, you and your ultra right wing Ukrainan Party of Rome, are simply bigger feeble cunts than anyone else around.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 21:19 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Listen cum guzzler your another fucking idiot go back to guzzling...

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Let's see now.  Decisions... Decisions...

Do I go with what's behind curtain B) The one that has a neighbor that shares my border and that I've been in business with for about 1,000 years and all the natural gas and oil I will need. vs. curtain A) that has a loan package that guarantees me worthless paper in both (USD and EUR) burdened with debt as far as the eye can see in exchange for all of my Countries resources both mineral and agricultural, should I default on the adjustible rate interest payments which should be kicking in -oh lets see, within the next year?

Oh and if I go with what's behind curtain A) I'll also receive a free missile defense shield which really means offensive ballisitic missile pointed at my neighbor so that he will never be able to attack me -for you know just in case.

Thanks for giving us the complete story Scott Belinksi of OilPrice.com, but where is Pepe Escobar when you need him most?!

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 14:58 | Link to Comment HastaLaVista
HastaLaVista's picture

Yanukovich is 100% lier. I dont trust any word coming out of his mouth. If Putin will try to make any agreements based on Yanukovich's promises, then he's badly wrong. Hopefully, he isn't such dumb.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:04 | Link to Comment RetiredSilverBug
RetiredSilverBug's picture

Ukraine is a mess. The only real option for long term is to split country and let western ukraine (former eastern poland which was part of autrian empire) go. It was Stalin's big mistake to add eastern poland to USSR.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

The real mistake was your mothers not to abort you....

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment TheLoveArtist
TheLoveArtist's picture

Tuco why are you being so bitter.  Last time Clint Putin Eastwood left you dangling from a noose with your trying to balance on a old wooden cross.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Bitter because the Ukrainian Catholic Western districts have not won a battle to control Ukraine in centuries. That makes him bitter. Keep trying. Isn't it your lot who joined the German Army in 1941 to aid the liberation of Ukriane?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Whats wrong Jack...fight club to rough for you...cum guzzler...

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 21:26 | Link to Comment El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Not bitter..it's all good...I thought it was fight club....

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

A new phase of a very old game. The area has been constantly "re-organized" for a 1000 years and there's no end in sight to the fighting.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment _SILENCER
_SILENCER's picture

We kick start Chernobyl and build glorious tractor factory!!

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Salah
Salah's picture

Can I throw out the first monkey wrench?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:19 | Link to Comment vincent
vincent's picture

I recently posed a few questions to a friend who resides in that "neighborhood". He made a few interesting observations...

"Ukraine has of course always had artificial borders since it joined Russia in 17th century ( was occupied) and russification of Ukraine East of course made these borders even more artificial . The planning of industry and settlements in Soviet time was very deliberate so that to disrupt national homogeneity of any nation. We in (former satellite state) have 43% (immigrant) "minority" and of course when ever needed, Russia can claim they are being oppressed, stage few provocation and make demands."

"In Ukraine now, Russia is fighting with international Capital. Its is quite normal that people in Ukraine is split, since European values are so different from Russian, and based on these, people take sides - often uninformed- with each sponsor. In my mind, the real outcome should be a split of Ukraine in West and East, hopefully not bloody, as no side is willing to give in and the level of involved stakes is raising. You can not unite what you can not. "

"Even if Ukraine moved towards EU, in following years it would then lead to occupation and credit boom in Ukraine by foreign banks and slow but definite closing of industries and move of real assets into foreign hands. Ukraine at the moment is so weak - INDEBTED and thus dependent on anyone who can provide money. BOth EU and Russia can, but each has conditions that are not compatible. But situation with Ukraine finances is desperate, and getting more desperate as stability disappears. This is good news for both EU and Russia as Ukraine gets even weaker. From Ukraine point of view, fast reestablishment of stability is exceptionally needed but - with whom at head? Joint venture? Janukovich and crush of resistance? It is only a short term solution. "

"So I see- and I am not sure what other consequences it may bring to region- instability? some military action? - who ever wins in this round will not be a winner since there will be even more violent backlash. Ukraine is a prisoner of its history and battle between IC and Russia. So any win will be relatively short lived. Juschenko served may be - 7 years? Janukovich- 3-4? Next regime- 2-1 year? So i think the question of splitting Ukraine will be very really on agenda in 2015-2016-2017."

He also had another good observation when explaining the parallels of an influx of international capital in other places (Africa) around the globe, mentioning that "It's a balance sheet war, and the West has a weak one"................

With geographicall and financial gains to be had, the west will continue  even more guerilla warfare to sabotage interests not in their control. Too bad only a handful of humans are actually standing far enough away to see where all of this is headed.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Thanks for the informative review and history.

Speaking as an American, I'm appalled at what my Country has done with regard to the border changes that took place following the demise of the post-Soviet "deconstruction".  It's benefited no one in Eastern Europe and created enmity as well as economic chaos among those states that otherwise wouldn't have been present had the fat cats from the Anglo-American banks and oil giants not been so fucking greedy after it's collapse.

I hate to admit it but the missile defense communique orchestratedby NATO in the ex-satellite Nations that border Russia is proof of why paranoia has been alive and well and justified for so long!

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Look at the borders in the Middle East!  Lines in the sand, designed to separate the people of the region from the oil they are sitting on.  Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia got most of the oil...  While Yemen, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria got most of the people.

Coincidence, I think.  /s

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

There are many recorded instances of the western leaders choosing to get what they want by the means of the war, and they particularly like divide and rule civil war method.

The country with so much agricultural land is having to ask for the help, in a highly populated world?

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Let me bring that picture home with the American farmer that is soon to be completely run out and extinct at the rate we're going.

I'm sure if the EU is successful with Ukraine's government Monsanto stands ready to make a "mint".

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

My how stupid of me to believe the West hadn't sunk it's meat hooks into that prize already!

http://www.monsanto.com/whoweare/pages/ukraine.aspx

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:09 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

For me, the demonstrators are fighting for their country to become colony. The biggest corruption in this world is the system where the people who make fancy paper take the biggest chunk of the production, while the people who actually produce get only enough to survive.

If I got it correctly, Russia offers them the cheaper gas, EU offers them loans with interest. 

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

They are every bit as ignorant as their European and American lemming counterparts.  The one silver lining for Ukraine is that the demonstrators or provocateurs are certainly not the best and brightest talent in that Country. They want Visas to become cheap "mobile labor" where? The United States, Britain, France forget Germany?...

If they don't already have relatives in those countries or read the news, what incentives will be waiting for them at those destinations?  If this were 1996 then I might understand.

This ain't 1996 and never will be.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Bingo Captain Nemo's son. The young protestors are fighting to gain EU freedom of movement within the Union. They love Ukraine so much they already have their bags packed with hand held devices and mobile phones ready to move to Berlin, London and Paris. Ukraine is their first love, but they don't plan to live there. That is what the youth rioting are after, the right to move to London.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment skifff
skifff's picture

If I may.

"Ukraine has of course always had artificial borders since it joined Russia in 17th century ( was occupied) and russification of Ukraine East of course made these borders even more artificial ." - this is incorrect. There were no Ukraine or Ukrainians in 17th century... What reunited with Russia was this:(small part of modern Ukraine territory) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cossack_Hetmanate

"The planning of industry and settlements in Soviet time was very deliberate so that to disrupt national homogeneity of any nation. We in (former satellite state) have 43% (immigrant) "minority" and of course when ever needed, Russia can claim they are being oppressed, stage few provocation and make demands." - also incorrect...

Lenin added "eastern Ukraine" to Ukraine, Stalin added "Western Ukraine", Hruschev added Cremia. All additions are made from Russian territories and done mostly for administrative reasons within Russian Empire and USSR.

http://ofhonor.net/files/articles/ukraina/ukraina.jpg

And so on...;-)

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Finally some post that attacks the reality of this situation. The western media is selling what the US state department hands them to print. The reality in Ukraine is very complex, social, economic, religious and border issues are deeply involved. In many respects the Kiev protestors are protesting a decade or more of terrible oligarcic corruption in Ukraine. Neither faction has clean hands. A simple signing of the EU agreement will just force the Ukraine economy, which is in recession, to have to fund a transformation of every aspect of it's economy. This will cost billions, that must be borrowed. Ukraine, even without the EU sighning,MUST come up with at least 10 billion dollars for next years budget, OR it will DEFAULT it's creditors and fail to pay public employee salaries and people's pensions. Yes, it is that bad!

The East West divide in Ukraine has potential for civil war. Ukraine's West is composed of many Polish lands handed to them after the war. And the East speaks Russian, is industrial, and the population has no desire to join the EU by a 75-25 split. As in the west the polls show 75-25% split FOR the EU. This is the making sof crisis.

If Ukraine had a healthy economy, a move to the EU would be much easier, as it is, neither Brussels not Kiev know how the deal could be funded, especially when Moscow walks away from their cheap gas and open market deal with Kiev.

This is not the simple democracy verus Moscow fight, in fact, Moscow does not Kiev what to do, Kiev can sigh the EU deal, they are free to do it. Anyone who says different lies. Ukraine is a sick, sick economy, and it is getting sicker. A loss of Russian markets, a loss of chea Russian gas, that would plunge Kiev into a major economic crisis. As if the sick EU with all it's crisis states could walk in and resuce Kiev.

Best deal for peace is a split. Kiev goes to the EU and enjoys EU rights and freedoms. The East goes to the East, and is independent or joins the Russian federation. That way both populations get what they want. The EU would never allow this, because they want the East for their industries and cheap and well trained labor force. It will be the EU that starts violence, you just watch. Call me wrong if you like, but lets revisit this story in a year, if all hell breaks lose, the EU and NATO will be up to their lips in it.

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 It has been portrayed as choosing between Russia

  or the 4th Reich.

 

More on the oligarchs battling over Ukraine.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/factional-struggle-intensifies-between-ukra...

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

gripping and incredibly more informed than last time, yet you lost me at "The EU would never allow this..."

who, "the EU"? Poland? Lithuania? Croatia? Sweden? The UK? France? Greece? Stop with this silly, childish, British Telegraph "The EU this, the EU that..."

who? The EU parliament that is thankfully NOT allowed to propose anything? the commission that answers to the Council? Or the Council, at which I can start again with... who? Poland?...

if you are that better informed after a few days it should be easy for you to check and understand what I'm talking about

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment vincent
vincent's picture

"It will be the EU that starts violence, you just watch."

The criminals (clarification..the western criminals) along with their shadow groups are currently busy setting brushfires elsewhere to hinder and impede the balance sheet expansion of their foes.

IMO, this mirrors the military buildup of the 70's and 80's, where west simply outspent the eastern bloc. The shoe now seems to be on the other foot.  Putin has not forgotten, and his alliances can easily be used to place a mean chokehold on western interests. More skirmishes and more pre-emptive strikes by the west, in a futile attempt to prevent their demise.

This particular 'situation' most likely receives a bandaid, but you are right, conflict cometh. Once again, and in the meanwhile it's the citizenry who will experience all of the pain. My thoughts go out to them.

 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Debugas
Debugas's picture

the reality is Ukraine is trying to milk both Russia and EU - borrowing from both and losing it all due to corruption

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:48 | Link to Comment TheLoveArtist
TheLoveArtist's picture

Well a split within Ukraine will allow the Transnistria Russian region of Moldova whick is predominantly Russian and small Turkic areas in the south to link up with Russia directly, this link will involve the entire coastal region and Crimea and eastern Ukraine.  Perhaps that is why Romania allowed USA use of its bases.  There is going to be a showdown

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 18:33 | Link to Comment x-moose
x-moose's picture

The sad truth is that 22 years of independence were essentially wasted. In retrospect this perhaps was to be expected as independence was not fought for - it just happened when communist nomenclature, scared by Yeltsin's tanks firing on the Russian Duma, quickly re branded itself without ever pledging any allegiance to Ukraine.

It is rather surprising that Ukraine lasted this long considering the level of embezzlement and corruption and the rate of increase at which money is siphoned from the state purse: Mr. lazarenko (the prime-minister in mid 90s) was found guilty of embezzlement of some silly by the current measure $70mln. He did 8 years on the inside in sunny California and is now awaiting deportation. To put things in perspective just this past year the Ukrainian government staged two phony tenders for dip sea oil rigs. The first one preceding the other by some 3 months. The winner of the first tender was a shell company registered somewhere in the Baltic that was paid $490mln for the second hand rig off Singapore (about twice the price of comparable NIB equipment from Exxon or BP).  This was widely reported in the Ukrainian media. The owner of the shell company was found and paraded as some local unemployed guy in Tallinn or Riga without any knowledge of any of this. Yet, three months later, his company yet again won the tender for the second identical rig at pretty much the same price!

I think the ZH crowd will do well to acknowledge, that even though the people who man the protests might have the perverse illusion of what the EU ideal actually is or isn't, lack sophistication of comprehending of the inner workings of QE and Kenzianism, or fiat money, their aspiration to overthrow the immediate evil of the thuggish kleptocratic regime is highly commendable. 

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 19:29 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Maybe Slovakia is planning on stuffing their Roma into the gas pipeline and shipping both to Ukraine.

Double whammy!!!

Thu, 12/12/2013 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The Roma People are all heading to England. The fuckers are all over. The Roma people have a rich culture and heritage. The British are too racist to appreciate them properly. A couple hundred thousand more Roma People from the east will add diversity to that English nation of immigrants. Or so says Tony Blair.

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