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Is The Consumer Slowing Down?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Lance Roberts Of STA Wealth Management,

 

 


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Fri, 12/13/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Consumers", "markets" - LMFAO!!!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment AmericasCicero
AmericasCicero's picture

Bullish

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

There awaits a very long and cold economic winter for America. While all the Pigs were gorging themselves at the QE trough , those trusted to steer the country for the good of all it's citizens , were too busy getting rich, fat and lazy. It's time for the dawning of a whole new system, run by men of vision and bravery.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

What exactly is "real" GDP these days?  Is it what the "market" tells us it is?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Lower 85% are gonna pop some tags

They've got 20 Bernankes in their pocket

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Good question.  What is GDP?  Does anyone believe this statement: "...personal consumption expenditures make up 67.82% of real gross domestic product..."

There are 121,000,000 households in the U.S. with an average income per household of $50K.  That's about $6T total income.  Subtract taxes and you get about $4 T.  How exactly does that amount to 67% of GDP?

Anyone?

 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

I like your math, but don't have an answer. Could it be that you assumed "average" when that number is really the "median"? Perhaps the higher earning households are driving the consumption, but I find it hard to believe that it could make up the gap that your calculation shows.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Rantabulous
Rantabulous's picture

.... GDP is really 6.5T..? :)

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment starfcker
starfcker's picture

the writer makes a good faith effort here, but his brainwashing (or his bosses) forces him to leave the real problems that he's not allowed to talk about unspoken. we have destroyed competition by moving our productive economy overseas. you will never have widespread vigorous business creation as long as walmart exists. americans  can't compete with slaves, and shouldn't have to. guys like this, tamney, mish, etc., have been writing this same article for years, paradise is just around the corner, all we need is another corporate tax break. how about a little sherman anti-trust and some vigorous prosecution of financial crime. i understand it would destroy the 'world economy'. but it would fix ours quick.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

I am not a consumer, I'm a FREE MAN! Whahahahahahaha! 

The Prisoner

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 13:58 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Cut up my VISA card yesterday; take that banksters.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Should of cut up the bill and continued to use the card, until they closed it...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And I taped it all back together..  Thanks!!!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:28 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yea, my unemployment check runs out next month too.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

At least you got unemployment. For every application there are thousands of applicants. How the fuck can they say that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being created monthly and not be called out on it by the MSM?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

+1000 scissors!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

There is no way the average American is going to beef up spending.  How on earth can they?

Many workers being pushed into part time work.

Food and energy which the Fed does not count has substancially risen.  This lowers discresionary spending.

Raising rents causing less disposable money.

And Obama Care.  What happens when the "average" American's Health Insurance premiums double?  Most will pay as much as a Car payment more.  So, there goes buying a new Car.  It will go to Health Insurance.  This does not stimulate the economy.  It just increases the cost of an item already in the budget.

Yes, inflation.  The hidden tax is having an effect on spending habits.  Even if Bernanke does not see it,  by the way they calculate inflation, it is there.

Higher taxes and especially Property Taxes.  The States got very used to the increased Assessments when property values were going up but now are very hesitant to lower them.

And PLEASE do not live in Maryland.  We had an increase on sewer charges call the flush tax, an increase in the Gasoline tax, an increase in the liquor tax (got to get thoses joe six packs), an increase in the cigarette tax.   And the real stinker expecially for business is the "Rain Tax"  which can hit businesses with over $30,000. per year.  This is in addition to their Property Taxes.

The Government keeps taxing you more but expects you to continue to spend.  Yet, unlike the Government that can just print Money, the average Family has to cut back somewhere.

So, will the consumer come back?  In my opinion NO.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Dude.. Vote with your feet man and move to more sensible places in the US.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment scrappy
scrappy's picture

Is The Consumer Slowing Down?

In Blue Oregon it sure appears that way!

Oregon signs up just 44 people for Obamacare despite spending $300 million. BWA HA HA HA!

http://washingtonexaminer.com/oregon-signs-up-just-44-people-for-obamaca...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

That's unfair!
You counted only "patients created".
What about "patients saved"?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

"...most will pay as much as a car payment "More".

SELL that winger feAr, man.  Most will pay Less and get more is the truth of it. Many will get to pay for the first time either because they were denied before or were just saying fuck it until somthing happens.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

We are having a great year in retail. We're up nearly 40% this Dec compared to last.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

When hulk hogan, or a cab driver, tells me that everything is ok and to keep buying...........that's the bell to sell!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:02 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Unemployment compensation IS a stimulus since almost all of that money is spent."

- Nancy P.

Your mom's loudmouth dingbat friend who somehow got elected to Congress.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Give me an EBT I'll spend it

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

You should run for office. Good slogan.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

what a crock

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

The 1st chart is interesting..

So has personal consumption increased over the decades -- or has the corporate side of things merely pulled back?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

we need MOAR FEWD STAMPZ Barry - then spending can go up again

 

right Barry?  you fucking piece of shit asshole

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment JailBank
JailBank's picture

What's a market?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:26 | Link to Comment starman
starman's picture

isnt Tweeter and Facebook and Amazon going to be creating millions of jobs next year?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:30 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Is there a hooker ETF?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:46 | Link to Comment 10mm
10mm's picture

I was in Manhattan past weekend thru Tuesday.Lots of happy shoppers with many bags in hand,limos etc.Have not been there in many yrs.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:50 | Link to Comment ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Baby boomers don't consume. They just smell after they die.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I would downvote this comment, but I like your avatar too much. Pretty much sums up modern day presidencies. All bullshit and no subsistence.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Summoning my inner Million Dollar Bonus........ <Sarc on>

Obviously, the problem is that the consumer is hoarding money.

Ergo, the solution is Negative Nominal Interest Rates, which will compel the consumer to spend their money instead of hoard it.

<Sarc off>

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

I cut so much spending off years ago...paid off and dumped 4 credit cards.  Kept one CC for any emergencies and certain purchases, but it is almost always paid immediately with zero balance.

My fiat goes to food storage, lead/copper and lead/copper-delivery systems, other necessary supplies, and as much Ag as I can get after all that.  BTFD bitchez! lol

Dumped the 401k long ago...don't contribute anymore and cashed in for more Ag. 

Dumped the bank account as well other than to use for about 3 regular monthly bills.  Unfortunately, I'm on direct deposit, but I yank all fiat out of the account the morning after it gets deposited.  All that's left is what is needed for a few onine bills and a small buffer of less than 100 bucks just in case. 

Everything else is used for above said supplies or stashed.

I pay fiat for nearly everything now instead of using the debit card.  I store all the change I get...save the nickels (put aside for hoarding/bartering purposes along with pre-1965 Ag coins), and have built a monster stash of quarters, dimes, pennies which I convert when the buckets overflow into more Ag or lead/copper. 

If everyone would do that they would be so much better off and protected from the coming crash.  Unfortunately, so many people are going to have all their fiat wiped out when the banks close down and the "bail-ins" begin, and the markets crash, and the riots start, and they will have no cash, no food storage, no Ag or Au, no lead/copper and lead/copper delivery systems.

Man, I wish the sheeple would wake the fuck up and get to preparing for this shit.  It's going to get real ugly, real fast when the globalist scumbags pull the rug out from under everyone and then head for their armored redoubts in Switzerland while civilization plunges into Dark Age style chaos and martial law. 

All I need now is a cabin in the mountains to get away from it all before it happens...working on it, working on it...

If any of you out there knows of any good websites or realtors for mountain cabin realty or of any good cheaper deals on something small and affordable please message me and let me know. 

Hopefully we have at least another couple years before the SHTF so that I can get something lined up to bug out to.  If not, then I'll be able to hunker down where I'm at to fend off the zombies and the SWAT teams until any of them finally figure out a way to get me. 

So somebody asked Mia Hamm's husband what he was having for Christmas dinner...he said, "Well I don't know about you guys...but I'm eatin' me a ham."  lol

Merry Christmas everyone ;-)

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 16:28 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

"In a consumption based economy, fiscal policy measures should be focused solely on job creation which inevitably leads to higher levels of consumption. "

Maybe the capability for job creation is what has structurally changed.  Jobs depend on resources.  And it could be that either resources are being constrained or resources have been redirected to other parts of the world, or both now.

"Taking Schumpeter's basic insight even further, it's stating the obvious to assert that there are no companies, and no jobs, without investment first."

Wasn't QE basically a huge investment and somewhat global in nature?  And yet real employment and real growth suffer locally and globally.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment edifice
edifice's picture

To sum up the charts:  No one has any fucking money.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 16:07 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

Then where is all the pre-QE money and the QE money at, if no one has any money?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The problem is that a huge amount of investment is going towards businesses that employ relatively few people and add nothing to the economy:

E.g.

- facebook

- twitter

 

And then we have massive amounts of capital being deployed to extract ever more expensive oil - in a sense that is wasted capital when you take the difference between the costs of extracting a barrel of oil now vs what it was 15 years ago.

 

This has resulted in productive enterprises being starved of capital.

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