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Faber, Rogers, Dent, Maloney, & Stockman – What Do They Say Is Coming In 2014?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Some of the most respected prognosticators in the financial world are warning that what is coming in 2014 and beyond is going to shake America to the core.  Many of the quotes that you are about to read are from individuals that actually predicted the subprime mortgage meltdown and the financial crisis of 2008 ahead of time.  So they have a track record of being right.  Does that guarantee that they will be right about what is coming in 2014?  Of course not.  In fact, as you will see below, not all of them agree about exactly what is coming next.  But without a doubt, all of their forecasts are quite ominous.  The following are quotes from Harry Dent, Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Mike Maloney, Jim Rogers and nine other respected economic experts about what they believe is coming in 2014 and beyond...

-Harry Dent, author of The Great Depression Ahead: "Our best long-term and intermediate cycles suggest another slowdown and stock crash accelerating between very early 2014 and early 2015, and possibly lasting well into 2015 or even 2016. The worst economic trends due to demographics will hit between 2014 and 2019. The U.S. economy is likely to suffer a minor or major crash by early 2015 and another between late 2017 and late 2019 or early 2020 at the latest."

-Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in [other] asset prices that have gone up dramatically."

-Gerald Celente: "Any self-respecting adult that hears McConnell, Reid, Boehner, Ryan, one after another, and buys this baloney… they deserve what they get.

And as for the international scene… the whole thing is collapsing.

That’s our forecast.

We are saying that by the second quarter of 2014, we expect the bottom to fall out… or something to divert our attention as it falls out."

-Mike Maloney, host of Hidden Secrets of Money: "I think the crash of 2008 was just a speed bump on the way to the main event… the consequences are gonna be horrific… the rest of the decade will bring us the greatest financial calamity in history."

-Jim Rogers: "You saw what happened in 2008-2009, which was worse than the previous economic setback because the debt was so much higher. Well now the debt is staggeringly much higher, and so the next economic problem, whenever it happens and whatever causes it, is going to be worse than in the past, because we have these unbelievable levels of debt, and unbelievable levels of money printing all over the world. Be worried and get prepared. Now it [a collapse] may not happen until 2016 or something, I have no idea when it’s going to happen, but when it comes, be careful."

-Lindsey Williams: "There is going to be a global currency reset."

-CLSA's Russell Napier: "We are on the eve of a deflationary shock which will likely reduce equity valuations from very high to very low levels."

-Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks: "Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

-Financial editor Jeff Berwick: "If they allow interest rates to rise, it will effectively make the U.S. government bankrupt and insolvent, and it would make the U.S. government collapse. . . . They are preparing for a major societal collapse.  It is obvious and it will happen, and it will be very scary and very dangerous."

-Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies: "Disappointingly, it is much more probable that the government has brought us out of the Great Recession, only to set us up for the Greater Depression, which lies just on the other side of interest rate normalization."

-Boston University Economics Professor Laurence Kotlikoff: "Eventually somebody recognizes this and starts dumping the bonds, and interest rates go up, and inflation takes off, and were off to the races."

-Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price: "I think we are going to see a series of bankruptcies.  I think the rise in interest rates is the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis.   This is going to bring down the derivatives system (and the financial system).

There are (over) one quadrillion dollars of derivatives and most of them are related to interest rates.  The spiking of interest rates in the United States may set that off.  What is going to happen in the world is eventually we are going to come to a moment where there is going to be massive bankruptcies around the globe."

-Robert Shiller, one of the winners of the 2013 Nobel prize for economics: "I'm not sounding the alarm yet.  But in many countries the stock price levels are high, and in many real estate markets prices have risen sharply...that could end badly."

-David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan: "We have a massive bubble everywhere, from Japan, to China, Europe, to the UK.  As a result of this, I think world financial markets are extremely dangerous, unstable, and subject to serious trouble and dislocation in the future."

And certainly there are already signs that the U.S. economy is slowing down as we head into the final weeks of 2013.  For example, on Thursday we learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 68,000 last week to a disturbingly high total of 368,000.  That was the largest increase that we have seen in more than a year.

In addition, as I wrote about the other day, rail traffic is way down right now.  In fact, for the week ending November 30th, U.S. rail traffic was down 16.3 percent from the same week one year earlier.  That is a very important indicator that economic activity is getting slower.

And we continue to get more evidence that the middle class is being steadily eroded and that poverty in America is rapidly growing.  For example, a survey that was just released found that requests for food assistance and the level of homelessness have both risen significantly in major U.S. cities over the past year...

A survey of 25 American cities, including many of the nation's largest, showed yearly increases in food aid and homelessness.

 

The cities, located throughout 18 states, saw requests for emergency food aid rise by an average of seven percent compared with the previous period a year earlier, according to the US Conference of Mayors study, published Wednesday.

 

All but four cities reported an increase in demand for assistance between the period of September 2012 through August 2013.

Unfortunately, if the economic experts quoted above are correct, this is just the beginning of our problems.

The next wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching, and things are going to get much worse than this.

 

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Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:28 | 4245274 HedgeAccordingly
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Harvey Dent? - http://hedge.ly/1aWnWdO

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:36 | 4245291 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

what do they say is coming?

great.

and how many of them run a central bank or act as Primary Dealers or write legislation for congress or implement Training Simulations for crisis actors or issue unaudited pentagon payments?

because *those* folks all say it will be a Really Excellent Year.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:37 | 4245305 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Been a great year or two for crisis actors.

Steady work.

I reckon next year they'll go from strength to strength.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:18 | 4245406 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Until the fed stops printing, It's all Bullshit!!!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:36 | 4245452 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Printing can't be the answer forever. I don't think it will ever end. When will we see the consequences.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:29 | 4245575 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Sales are already negative, inflation is a wonderful makeup hiding the zits right now.  Wash that cover girl pancake makeup off and the real economy is about -2% right now.  Maybe as bad as -3%.

 

When the bean counters realize it and cannot hide it anymore all hell will break loose.  Add Obamacare to the middle class budget squeezing out car payments and the shit only gets worse.  

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:01 | 4245894 brettd
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When the fed adds a trillion (5% of GDP)

And nominal GDP at 2%, that means the economy is 

really at (ballpark) -2% to -3%.

Fewest people employed in a generation.

Most people getting benefits in a century.

Don't need a Princeton PHd to figure that it's not

"if" but "when."

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:32 | 4245940 markmotive
Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:19 | 4246225 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Save this article and a year from now go back and read it to see how accurate, or wrong, these people are.  I did that on 1/1/13 with an article written by Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse.  Some of his 50 predictions are so vague it could be argued he was right just as easily as it could be argued he was wrong.  Some are flat out wrong, including his prediction the stock market would see a big decline.  How are those record highs working for your prediction Michael?  This article has quotes from a wide variety of folks and, again, there are some really vague predictions.  I see Celente is being quoted.  he has been wrong so many times in the last five years I don't even read his nonsense.  Hey Gerald, how's things with your gold investments?  And there are predictions where 2 or more people make the exact opposite predictions.  I'll be impressed the day someone takes their predictions for the year and writes an article in late December pointing out prediction by prediction where they were right and where they were wrong.  How about it Michael????  Want to start a new trend?

Source:  http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/50-predictions-for-2013

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:40 | 4246291 DebtSlaveZombie
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I laugh every time Celente opens his mouth.  He has been predicting the same stuff every year since 2009.  I guess his appearances on info wars (god, another tragic show with bold predictions that never come to be) havent helped either.  When do people finally say enough bro, shove those trends up your ass and tell me something real for a change.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:57 | 4246390 tenpanhandle
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While I get caught up in predicting doom and gloom to my friends and family and have to constantly dial myself back so to prevent complete alienation, it is obvious that sooner than later something real is gonna get shoved up all our arses.  Hope yer still laughing then.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:20 | 4246430 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

"The end is here" predictions have been going on so long it's kind of like the story of the boy who cried "wolf".

The problem is, when the wolf really showed up,  no one listened.

That is what I see happening with these dire predictions.

One day when the disaster really is at the door, few, if any will listen to the warnings.

An old Scottish preacher was once asked when was the best time to get ready to die. He said, "The day before your death".

"But no one knows the day they will die", was the person's answer.

"Right" said the old Scot. "So one should always be ready to die and meet God".

The best preparation is to always be prepared, regardless of the prognosticators' views of tomorrow.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:29 | 4246877 Shocker
Shocker's picture

No matter what, we are still in for more economic hard times

Full Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:13 | 4247108 philipat
philipat's picture

WRT the side picture, yes, but what is Bernanke doing with his single ball?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:18 | 4247313 mjcOH1
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He will be throwing it at your face, same as for the last 5 years.

But don't feel bad.   I could tell you a tale of woe regarding bank shorts and the 'fundamentals'.
But hat in hand, I am still not ready to go full retard and BTFATH.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 06:07 | 4247931 jeff montanye
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why is the screen blanking out?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:36 | 4247996 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The screen is fine.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:23 | 4247126 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

The best preparation is to always be prepared,  Deo, that is the total answer. Pay attention, plan for the worst and hope for the best but above all, BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:08 | 4247293 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ infinity, Deo vindice

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 23:51 | 4247613 YC2
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Dont be a doomer.  In fact, dont be anything, especially any ism that compells you to evangelize your friends and family.  Live your life, exchange ideas at appropriate times, hope for the "best" and prepare a little for the various flavors of "worst" that could arise.  If the "gold bugs wet dream" reval ends up being the end game, you will be able to take care of them.  

 

I find going down the rabbit hole of central bank cartels interesting, and when the narrative is compelling it alters my financial planning (or even my meta-planning, to use a pretentious word).  If its all misdirection, smoke and mirrors, or inconsequential in the end - I do enjoy a good conspiracy story and the insight into the mindset of a sociopath, fabricated or not.  So, I guess I am hedged for my time reading this blog.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 05:23 | 4247907 fockewulf190
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Hugo Salinas Price gets my vote. For myself, 2014 will be similar to 2013: continue to stack more phyzz, keep the biz running, destroy more debt, reduce energy dependancy by adding more solar panels, buy a nice sized lithium battery stack to store excess juice, eat old inventory and replace with new foods, speculate with a few bucks on gold miners.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:44 | 4246692 Citxmech
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I agree that Celente is on an endless loop right now - but what else do you want any of these folks to say? [Other than Lindsay Williams - WTF is that clown even doing in this group?]

The global economy has been walking like Wile E. Coyote off the cliff, on nothing but air, for years now - almost like somebody let the cat out of the bag and told him "just don't look down - and you'll be fine."

Whatever.  More time to prep. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 22:11 | 4247428 daedon
daedon's picture

Could listen to everyone's confessions ?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:56 | 4248104 CheapBastard
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The Housing Bubble is still massively inflated. With interest reversion this will Burst Fugly.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:30 | 4246874 ElvisDog
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Agreed. If I had a dollar for every time I heard "when interest rates rise" I would be a rich man.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:51 | 4248003 GetZeeGold
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Uncle Sam might be stupid......but he ain't crazy.

 

If we let interest rates go up.......we're dead.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:26 | 4247132 Blankenstein
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And those warning of the housing bubble were laughed at and treated with contempt at least as far back as 2003.  Some of the realtards and their following of sheep were even vicious if the possibility of a bubble was brought up in conversation.  

Also, without all of Ben Almighty's interventions, the current economy, most likely, would be much more depressed.

 

Idiot Mike Norman laughing at Peter Schiff in 2006: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60CLQse27p8  

And who in their right mind would ever take any advice from that wingnut with a perm. 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 04:34 | 4247891 Lin S
Lin S's picture

I won't even read Michael Snyder anymore, he's a broken record replaying the same, old, vaguely generalized song.  No qualifications, no experience, just runs a webpage followed by hicks in West Virginia.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:28 | 4246013 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Correct.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 01:12 | 4247728 mkkby
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The nasdaq will never go down -- 1995-2000.

Housing will never go down -- 2003-2007.

The fed will always save us... signed the muppets.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:49 | 4246466 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

economics9698   "Wash that cover girl pancake makeup off and the real economy is about -2% right now. Maybe as bad as -3%."

Comment:

I still find it interesting that despite all the printing, those that see growth as negative, don't see it as deflationary.

economics9698     "When the bean counters realize it and cannot hide it anymore all hell will break loose.  Add Obamacare to the middle class budget squeezing out car payments and the shit only gets worse."

 Comment:

So what is occuring here your scenario? People are having to allocate their dollars even more in ways that they can get some sort of value. In other words, those people will choose to spend those dollars in a way those dollars will have greater value. Granted, people should and many tend to do that in inflationary or deflationary cycles. But you have just described a scene of decreasing available dollars for the average Joe trying to make ends meet. One will have to choose between paying for some items and foregoing others.  That is deflationary. Not in the sense that prices are going down, but in the sense that what few dollars you have, are of greater value, and you, the consumer must make even harder decisions to spend those dollars since you will have less dollars.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:42 | 4246683 economics9698
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Less clothing, more food luxury items (think frozen fast food), supplemented by food stamps.  Yep, food inflation covering up a loss in sales in other areas.  Living it.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:22 | 4246533 exp626
exp626's picture

These guys could be guessing like the rest of us, but whether they are or not we should all be prepared for the worst.  We should be teaching people, especially family about the consitution.  When this thing eventually falls apart, 1-10 years from now? There will be a vacuum and an opportunity to reset this whole thing back on its true foundation.  I like teaching friends with great art, using it to spark thought and conversation.  Here is a great sculpture that teaches the second amendment.  Right now with the latest colorado shooting, the left is getting as much traction as they can with it, as usual.  Good time to send this to those you know.  Remind them the true nature of the second amendment is not just to hunt!  http://jhooley.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/shall-not-be-infringed-web.jpg  

 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:24 | 4247984 Drifter
Drifter's picture

2nd amendment is a dead argument, as is the constitution.   There won't be any "reset" opportunity to "return to the constitution".    National collapse isn't an opportunity to "restore" anything.   It's the end of a nation-as-we-know-it.

Americans put too much faith in those 400 million guns in private hands.  They won't save America because they won't be used to save America.  The guns are there, but the guts aren't.

No one has any idea how a grass-roots revolution would come together and accomplish anything.  Lots of people hope it will happen, but not one of them has any idea how it would happen.  Nobody has thought it through, and if they did think it through, they would realize it's logistically impossible.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 09:21 | 4248024 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I'm beginning to like you Drifter.  I've been saying something to that effect for years.

This is the primary reason most of the sheeple bleet "WE SUPPORT OUT TROOPS ! "  That's because they don't have the balls to pick up the gun here at home and defend the Constitution here at home.  They all have forgotten that the Constitution was born in blood.....and in the end.....will only be adequately defended once again in blood.  I certainly don't like this fact......hate it actually.  But it is the fact of human nature.  Humans everywhere want control of their lives.  Some, unfortunately, believe they have to control others in order for them to have control......to bring about some form of utopia.  Of course this breeds tyranny.  And the vast majority of the time tyranny can only be rooted out by bloodshed.

But today.....there is too much money to be made for revolution and freedom.

Oh well.....BTFATH.....and let's sit back and watch Dancing with the Stars and the Kardashians.

Welcome to Prison Planet.....where "the Constitution is just a goddam piece of paper.".....right Bushie ?

 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 11:32 | 4248133 Drifter
Drifter's picture

I didn't see much "support our troops" during Vietnam.  

What's different now?   Is our reason for being in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lybia, any more noble than Vietnam?  No. 

So why all the "support our troops" nonsense when they're doing the very same thing they did in Vietnam?

Ever wonder about that?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:41 | 4246899 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

When welfare won't buy happy meals tshtf.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:00 | 4247977 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Rome had a grain dole.

Foodstamps are nothing new.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:22 | 4246521 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That's right stockivity.  It IS all bullshit as long as there is QEternity.

All the doomsayers are full of shit........I only listen to Hugh Hendry now.......BTATFH and follow the trend.

You can't fight the Fed.

Until of course.......around 2020 give or take a couple of years.  Around that time or a little after, the confluence of EVERY mega-trend out there beings to hit the economic shores.  Even the sheeple won't be able to ignore it.  Then comes the currency collapse and then the next leg down on the Great Deleveraging / Long Emergency.

2018 - 2025 ......the wheels REALLY come off and wars really heat up.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:08 | 4246745 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again "you can only lever up in dollars right now." The carry trade is dead. Japan is rolling over, the CAD has gotten CRUSHED, the euro is ridiculously over priced for what's going on over there. Cable might be an exception because that is money center banking there still. (HSBC, Standard Chartered, etc.) but the only two economies either booming or showing boom potential are China and the USA. As I said many years ago "Chimerica" is anything but chimerical (or is it Chi-miracle?) the only thing certain next year is even more massive quantities of oil and natural gas being pulled out of the ground in North America. So far at least the liquidity has been both infinite and reciprocated. At some point there will be a liquidity shortfall. (LTCM comes to mind. Nothing compared to Lehman of course.) the killer is always a bet in both price and direction that is highly levered. Interest rates have already moved higher...the room for error is a lot less...especially given the lack of recovery five years into this thing. In other words "shorting treasuries pre-supposes a V shaped recovery." Where is it? Prices in fact are FALLING. And the Fed will taper? "Go for it" I say. Puerto Rico bonds at 12 percent? Bring it!

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 05:51 | 4247926 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

what I have said has been shown to be empirically proven already btw. those who have predicted nothing...done nothing...have done best "market wise." those obviously who have made a point of disrupting the market place (Tesla, Amazon, Twitter, PXD, COG, EOG) have had truly outsized and staggering returns. The current crop are of course fuel cell tech (QTWW, Fuelcell, Ballard Power). all of this is now coming online as the USA quickly becomes the world's largest energy producer...but unlike Russia and Saudi Arabia uses that energy to produce higher value products and services and ultimately massive sales and income growth. the only thing missing so far is a sudden and massive move higher in the dollar "across the board." should such a 90's like event occur that will in my view cause a market correction. Big Oil which had all of us over a barrel during the Bush Years is now whining like a bunch of crybabies that "there's too much oil." that's a tell to me that the dollar is about to make a broad based move higher "and their peculiar institution" will get harmed. with war getting ramped up on three fronts (Northeast Asia, North Africa, Central Asia) there will be no shortage of bids for the "the war machine trade." with interest rates this low and spreads this high "the default dollar" remains intact.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 13:06 | 4248285 macbone
macbone's picture

Interesting analysis. Thanks. I think you are wrong in that the cancer has now spread too far for there not to be some serious amputational events (to coin a phrase.) But there is a solid core foundation that can and will be saved from the deluge. You have done a good job of pointing out one island of solvency.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 17:42 | 4246999 Rafferty
Rafferty's picture

Printing on this scale leads to massive misapplication of capital resources.  This simple has to have a neagive outcome but not necessarily by way of a sudden crash.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 23:41 | 4247597 Drifter
Drifter's picture

"Until the fed stops printing, It's all Bullshit!!!"

Yes, everyone predicting another '08 style crisis is wrong.  There won't be another one.  In '09 TPTB decided to play their hole card, currency printing.  It's their last "shot".  The end-game play.  They know it will destory the US dollar, but they have no other cards left to play. 

So no, the Fed won't stop printing.  Not even slow it down.  America will have its Weimar hyperinflation collapse.    

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:14 | 4247298 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

Time to harvest the sheeple. The sheeple are soft ... Easy food.

"The tiger began her attacks in a region of Nepal close to the Himalayas during the late 19th century, with people being ambushed by the dozen as they walked through the jungle. Hunters were sent in to kill the tiger, but she managed to evade them. Eventually, the Nepalese Army was called in. Despite failing to capture or kill the tiger, soldiers managed to force the tiger to abandon her territory and drive her across the border (river Sarda) into India, where she continued her killing activities in the Kumaon District. She eventually grew bolder, and began killing people in broad daylight and prowling around villages. Life across the region grew paralyzed, with men often refusing to leave their huts for work after hearing the tiger's roars from the forest.

In 1907, the tiger was killed by British hunter Jim Corbett. The tiger had killed a 16-year-old girl in the town of Champawat, and left a trail of blood and limbs, which Corbett followed. Corbett found the tiger and shot her dead the next day, a dramatic feat confirmed by about 300 villagers. A postmortem on the tigress showed the upper and lower canine teeth on the right side of her mouth were broken, the upper one in half, the lower one right down to the bone. This injury, according to Corbett, probably prevented her from hunting her natural prey."

The Champawat Tiger was a female Bengal tiger responsible for an estimated 430 deaths in Nepal and the Kumaon area of India  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champawat_Tiger

  

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:52 | 4245338 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Well they *might* just get it right next year.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:40 | 4245610 Croesus
Croesus's picture

I've retired my crystal ball to the dusty corner of my coat closet, next to the pet rock. I've heard that "Next Year is The End", for years,  from all kinds of people, with all different perspectives.

They've have been wrong 100% of the time, and will probably be making the same calls next year, around now. 

 

 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:53 | 4245653 economics9698
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The game goes on until inflation cannot be ignored.  The bankers know this.  Keep forcing people out of the job market, less paychecks, no inflation, the game goes on.

 

When that dynamic changes the game changes.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:59 | 4245661 Bendromeda Strain
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They'll be wrong until they're not - and then all the mockers will be weepingly, pukingly wrong.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:33 | 4246017 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I could not agree more, and have made similar comments... Calling it "Doomsday Fatigue".

If I think about it, it makes perfect rational sense, if you think of Players who cater to Contrarians and specialize in Bear markets -- just like their polar opposites are always "Up" or perma-Bulls.

Each set of Players cater to their respective market segment (demographics), selling them products and services.

And as in any "gold rush", more millionaires are made selling picks & shovels (goods & services), than in finding the gold itself. Clever entrepreneurs know this, and know how to use it to their advantage.

No "conspiracy" model is needed, although plenty of 'conspiring' (colluding, collaboration) goes on. It's just the basics of human nature manifesting itself in a myriad of ways, but always driven by the same basics.
I've rediscovered that the planet will keep spinning and the sun will shine again, even when it's been raining or cloudy for a long time.

Happy planning, planting, building, harvesting, laughing, loving, living.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:47 | 4246248 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

+1 for coining Doomsday Fatigue, and supported by recent Hugh Hendry articles and increasingly lopsided bull/bear stats. Welcome, economic agnostic.

Gold comments are on the mark, too. A "Buy/Sell Gold" mall kiosk is the modern version of the gold rush assay/supply store. Profit on gold without having to guess the timing aspect.

Yes, the planet will keep spinning and the sun will rise tomorrow, but unbacked fiat has still failed 100% of the time. It is a fool's game to try to time the event or process, but any thinking person with knowledge of the past 2,500 years of history needs to keep that history in mind.

Build your house upon a rock, diversify, and "get busy livin'".

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:23 | 4246441 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Yup. "Build your house upon a rock". Sage advice from the Sermon on the Mount.

Matthew 7:24-29

Therefore whosoever heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them, I will liken him unto a wise man, which built his house upon a rock:
And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell not: for it was founded upon a rock.
And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand:
And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it.
And it came to pass, when Jesus had ended these sayings, the people were astonished at his doctrine:
For he taught them as one having authority, and not as the scribes.

The "scribes" - both then and now - are wrong more often than not, and they do not speak with authority.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:25 | 4247989 lewy14
lewy14's picture

OK. So this is part of the thread has me feeling totally bearish now.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:49 | 4245484 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Ive been a zh reader almost since the beginning,  and what I predict is that their are still 14 bears still holding out.  The party doesn't end until they all throw in the towel and turn bullish

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:03 | 4246402 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I felt a little bullish the other day but popped a couple Tums and that went away.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:35 | 4245845 starfcker
starfcker's picture

graze, you seem to be thinking for yourself. TARP was excruciatingly hard to get through congress. obama's stimulus was basically a party line vote. QE is just the extension of those policies without the bother of congress. these budget deficits and the debt rising into the mid twenty trillions are the stated plan, not something spinning out of control. what comes after that is what interests me. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:20 | 4246529 thunderkiss
thunderkiss's picture

Is it time to start buying rolling front month deep out of the money put options on SPY and/or QQQ?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:04 | 4246734 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

In 1978 I was with a political action group which predicted dire economic circumstances during the first decade of the 21st century.

In 2000, I was with another political action group who briefed select congress people that 2007 would be the beginning of the next economic meltdown, thanks to the passage of the GLB legislation in 1999, and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act in 2000.

Today, I would humbly predict (with a far superior record of prediction than Stockman has ever enjoyed, and I've also never been indicted for anything, unlike Stockman!) that sometime around 2017, possibly as early as 2016, the fewmets will really hit the fan, as that falls within their overall design, and by "their" I mean the senior capital pool owners, i.e., the super-rich.

'Nuff said.........

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:12 | 4248180 stant
stant's picture

eeee read marty armstrongs latest. iam going long confederate flaggs. metaphorically speaking

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:36 | 4245298 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

I have a surer prediction. All these guys will be predicting the end of the world at this same time next year. 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:48 | 4245327 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

All these guys, myself and anyone with a calculator and a shred of common sense has been predicting collapse for years

For 2014 I am going to change my prediction to Dow Jones 20k , gold $800, unemployment 6%, inflation . 1%

I'm tired of looking like the crazy doomer conspiracy theorist!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:04 | 4245370 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

I hear you.

I'm keeping my mouth shut around the relatives and friends this CHRISTmas season.

 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:12 | 4245389 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I have another one....This time next year my 65 year old millionaire Mother and Stepmother who couldn't figure out a 20% tip on a $100 dinner bill if they put both their heads together, both will be bragging about how their 401k accounts went up by 100k while they sat on their fat asses.

Meanwhile I wonder how it could be possible that my silver investment has lost half its value....

Hey, this if fun!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:24 | 4245708 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Fucking awesome, +1. (I figured out that people, in general, aren't very smart when I learned that most people find figuring the standard 15% gratuity very difficult.)

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:20 | 4246765 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

What's easier to do in your head - dividing by nine, or dividing by ten?

Dividing by nine, of course, cuz nine is less than ten.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:20 | 4245812 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

@Mr. Pink

Your silver will still be the same amount of ounces and hopefully you will continue to stack more cheap phyzz silver up to and before the SHTF.

When this all comes crashing down, those 401k's will be destroyed/stolen, and the millions in fiat your fat ass mom's thought they had will be turned to dust if they still have it in the criminal banking system who are the true, actual owners of that fiat and they will steal it for their sanctioned bail-ins.

Your silver will still be as many ounces as you have and it just may become close to priceless if based in the destroyed U.S. dollar valuation.

You'll be buying those 100$ dinners with 10 old silver dimes and leaving 1 silver dime for the tip if you're feeling reeeeeaaally generous and the waitress is a hot babe who'll probably blow you for that silver dime. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:10 | 4246411 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Damn, I hope that last part comes true.  I got a thousand silver dimes.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 23:41 | 4247596 theliberalliberal
theliberalliberal's picture

call me when the fed starts raising rates.

 

until then.  stack

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:11 | 4248173 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I've been a major supporter of the concept of the ten-cent blow job™ for many years but nobody - especially escort services and selected call girls - wanted to listen. I now believe I have seen the error of my ways. Make that ten-cent blow job™ payable with a silver dime!

For a Washington quarter, I'd say around the world would be in order.

Stack 'em high, my friends.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:51 | 4246252 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Your inheritance grows daily in the buy-in reserve pool. 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:14 | 4245396 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I predict a Star Trek...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHhePr0TKfc time to move into Star Dates people. GET WITH THE PROGRAM! I predictg 2014 will be the "last year."

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:43 | 4246024 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

[Sob] I was almost moved to tears.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:11 | 4246325 CPL
CPL's picture

To make that jump from type 1 civilization to type 2 civilization; logistics/material/invention/will/people of all type.  It is all here on Earth scattered all over the place in every language.  Like a massive scavenger hunt.  However, won't happen though without some changes to to world governance to allow for participatory economics and the illusion of sovereignty of dot's placed on a map.

  • Participatory economic which matches the Earth strong suit of controlled economic chaos with the respect to the individual.  (ever notice Star Trek still has commerce and credit, get people can follow what they are interested in.  That won't ever happen here without a currency migration to allow NO central control.  People develop faster without central intervention)
  • Dot's on a map don't mean much to begin with except to a few people in a 'capital' ('owners', lol, whatever).  This is the outcome of that idea is exactly what you see today.  Colossal fucked up mess, but please by all means, keep it.  It makes a few twerps happy to bark orders.

People have to make that decision to either keep chasing bits of debt and continuing to murder each other in wars that are less justified every time they have one.  The situation now, which for some unknown reason seems to be acceptable to fully grow adults.

Or the population of earth grows the fuck up and do something constructive as a species.  Illustrate without a certainty that they are going to act like adults instead of the historical pillage and piracy that usually happens.  (And get off the Nuclear garbage, worst idea ever for space engines and power production.  They don't take much to fuck up on earth under controlled circumstances, imagine being in space.  Core goes, and there goes a decades worth of work in a small pelting of rocks.  Positive it's happened a couple times in the past, somewhere.)

Of course that won't happen until the scavenger hunt happens.  Literally the human race could be at 'warp 1' foundations in a year if coordinated, but judging by the pussy footing, ego's, hiding technology from one another and lack of direction.  (Plus the stupid way sciences are handled).  It'll probably go nowhere like most things do historically. 

The key's to safely navigating the solar system any beyond are right there.  But greedy and ego stands in all your way's, just have to convince so few to take their hands out of the honeypot and work together to reach it.  Like asking the world to jump at once is all that is required.  lol!  Then again, in an exploration setting, last people you want running things are warhawks.

Might just end up starting a fight accidentally between multiple worlds destroying your own home worlds.  Then sentenced 14000 years ago on a pretty back water planet, have no less than 20 nuclear wars and piss off the owner of the world enough he flattens the population a couple of times because they are all out of control.  Of course that's just crazy sci fi talk. 

Maybe in this chapter the story is different....maybe.  Although it's all dependent on collective free will and cooperation at the end of the day isn't it.  And it should be interesting to see how this plays out, gotta feeling that if it's honestly pursued without murdering one another and being open with discovery, that the venture will be very lucky.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:13 | 4246423 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Wondering how John Kerry ended up as the last picture in that.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:19 | 4245999 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm old and business sucks and my family knows I'm crazy so I'm just talking my ass off to anyone who makes eye contact. Fuckem. At least they will never be able to say nobody told them. I know its probably not helping (especially my business) but I feel part of the problem is that so many of us have just gone along. We didn't want to be one of those that people rolled their eyes at. As I said, fuckem. Sure it makes them uncomfortable and maybe a little depressed, but thats how I know its working! Maybe I Am a little nuts, but fuckem, right?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:01 | 4246038 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I feel the same way...and post the shit on facebook...every shred of it I can find.  I plan on saying 'I told you so' a couple million times.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:08 | 4246744 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

I'm so used to these 360 days old cans.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 18:56 | 4247081 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Just like the NSA revelations, everyone will just pretend that they too knew all this from the beginning.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:50 | 4246475 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I have learned that people only hear what they want to hear. I gave up trying to convince anyone of anything a long time ago, I just sit back and laff now. I do love to send wingers into orbit but only because they think there shit don't stink. Everybody needs a hobby.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:18 | 4246055 runningman18
runningman18's picture

But that's the game, isn't it?  To lull the public into a sense of apathy with a fake recovery.  Get everyone to stop talking about or caring about the underlying problem.  Then, bring the roof down on our heads while we're predicting a "bullish year" despite all the evidence to the contrary...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:45 | 4246469 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Right with you.  But considering instead going with the tried and true "no one could have seen this coming", "the data doesn't support it" and the ever popular "this is Bush's fault" explanations.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:47 | 4246587 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

"I'm keeping my mouth shut around the relatives and friends this CHRISTmas season."

Ever heard of MITHRA????

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:59 | 4246601 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Marduk, Apollo, or perhaps most importantly, Horus?

Winter solstice, anyone?

Getting together for the family moments are great, but the consumerist and, ironically, pseudo-religious (reason for the season, dontcha know...) sides are borderline complete and utter nonsense. 

DYODD...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:41 | 4245852 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Human trending events have an inexorable character, but they move oh so slowly... until they don't...

It is easy to see something coming, interpret it as imminent, wait for its arrival, grow bored with the passing of time, become comfortable with said pending event until it seems as though it has always been there, watch its significance fade into the background, and then wake up one morning to the nightmare as though somehow suddenly it has sprung from the darkness. Many of us have lived on the edge of this for many years, appearing as the little boy who cried wolf until in time even we have started to wonder if the wolves were real...

They are very real... they are at the door... we have only to wait for a little while longer.

How long? Who knows... I had expected calamity before this... certain at the very least this was the year...

But I can promise you this... it is coming... War, disease, economic collapse... the perfect storm...

Just have patience...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 14:13 | 4248184 Zadok
Zadok's picture

Redacted...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:39 | 4245303 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Jebus?

 

So best we look busy people!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:57 | 4245352 hunglow
hunglow's picture

Wichita, KS is on the map?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:23 | 4245411 CH1
CH1's picture

Harvey Dent?

Arthur Dent. Arthur Phillip Dent. ;)

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:10 | 4246503 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Is making himself a nice cup of something almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea. 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:27 | 4245424 GenXer
GenXer's picture

Doom porn quote fest, this guy is tired and just pushing out content

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:56 | 4245966 Newager23
Newager23's picture

I can sympathize with those who think we will continue to muddle on in 2014 and no crash will occur. But I've been studying the future since 1989, and it looks like we are getting very close to the beginning of the collapse. In fact, I would say that the TEOTWAWKI is coming sometime in the next 36 months.

The more time we get to enjoy our current lifestyle the better, but it's not going to last much longer. When the doo-doo hits the fan this time, it's going to be very messy. Our way of life is literally going to go bye-bye.

If you think our economic policies are going to extend the American empire through the end of this decade, you need to check your glasses for a rose color, because you have fallen for the ruse. Our high standard of living and easy street way of life, is on its last legs.

The prophets and visionaries in this post see it coming. And you have to be blind not to. It's very basic economics. You can't replace wealth generation using debt. Let me re-phrase, you can't replace wealth generation indefinitely using debt. The USA has been doing it since the 1980s, and to my estimation we have less than 36 months before we hit a wall. The debt burden has simply grown to large, and its bankruptcy time. And not just for the Federal government, but for many, many businesses that will be impacted by the fallout.

While my 36 month time-frame is my expectation, there is one date next year that has my attention: 4/15/2014. If we get through April without a hiccup, that will be a good sign. If we don't, then katie bar the door, because the spiral will have begun. I hope I'm wrong. I like easy street. It's not going to be fun to watch it go. 

Newager

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:22 | 4246003 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

It depends on what you look at as markers for being in the thick of it or not. For the most part I believe we are already their, it is extremely slow though. The signs I look at are;

1) Losing control of interest rates with taper talk back in May

2) Continual on/off taper talk that eventually everyone is going to know is a bluff

3) Bitcoin mania. Why bitcoin mania? Well its simple, it shows that people are looking for an alternative money, and it just happens to be a freemarket currency. 

4) Stock Prices and the lack of bears. We should be at a top right now in the stock market, honestly I am not sure we are really their which is scary considering. If the FED actually breaks the bears completely it will destroy the economy as everyone will simply dump all the cash they have for anything.

I think all these signs are very ominous that we are already undergoing hyperinflation. Who knows though, maybe we get one last crash right before they decide on QE blah blah and expande purchases to the point where the FED is the only market particpant as both buyer and seller. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 17:09 | 4246951 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Stocks may go down, they may go up. The dollar may die, it may grow stronger. The planet might get hotter, it might get chillier. Whatever. One thing is for sure. There will be poop and lots of it.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 18:20 | 4247036 MedTechEntrepreneur
MedTechEntrepreneur's picture

Josie the Outlaw says: "When Resistance Becomes Duty"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1t9xBe0wPw

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:44 | 4247163 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I like this one even better: "Cops, Wake Up!"

http://youtu.be/v-w9QuYRVE4

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:24 | 4247128 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

Its never a real crisis until those knob-jobbers over on Wall Street start losing THEIR jobs. Until then, its a quaint "recession" to be weathered out in the Hamptons on weekends, reading the Wall Street Journal as their maid cleans their beachside abode.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:44 | 4247161 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

unemployment---disturbingly high @ 368,000.  WTF?  47 million on food stamps that strikes me as disturbingly high!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:47 | 4247169 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Yeah--those guys are always right...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:35 | 4245293 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Where have I seen this movie before?  Is this like the PM version of The Replacements?

What one doesn't have in star power, the sum total does?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:36 | 4245299 william114085
william114085's picture

citing charlatan, snake oil salesman Lindsey Williams?  

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:41 | 4245468 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Lindsey Williams?? I'm still waiting for the bulging ocean floor in the gulf to explode and destroy the world....maybe 2015...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:57 | 4245479 akak
akak's picture

Don't forget how Lindsey Williams told us that Alaska is floating on something like 200 gajillion barrels of oil that "they" won't let us drill .... yeah, I tell ya, it's just oozing up all over the place ... makes it hard to grow anything here, what with the oil table being so high ....

snake oil salesman Lindsey Williams

At least snake oil is a real product.

Lindsey's fables, on the other hand ....

 

PS: NEVER trust any man named "Lindsey".  Between this one and that flaming closet case chickenhawk senator from South Carolina who ain't fooling ANYONE, the name is permanently tainted (if it had not been already).

 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:08 | 4245528 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Oil table, thats funny.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:04 | 4245665 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

One exception to Akak's Axiom would be Lindsey Buckingham of Fleetwood Mac fame. A great technical guitarist who was banging Stevie Nicks in her prime.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:28 | 4245832 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

lol...banging her in her prime...

yeah, her prime holes. lol

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:20 | 4248072 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Dreams

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:22 | 4246439 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I'd hit that even at subprime.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:18 | 4246522 Blano
Blano's picture

Amen to that.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:02 | 4247282 peter4805
peter4805's picture

Stevie was a babe but I'd take Grace Slick in her prime over Stevie.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:40 | 4245308 XitSam
XitSam's picture

What did they say was coming in 2013? In 2012? etc.  

Were they right?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:41 | 4245313 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Predicting the next market collapse is a fools game. I don't know one time when a meaningful stock market collapse occurred when people were made aware of it's coming. These things tend to come out of no where and though most people know I've thought this market to be rigged for the last five years this Fed can keep this shit going for a long time.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:49 | 4246030 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Plenty of people saw the real estate bubble and mortgage collapse coming a few years go. Hell, there were lots of Magazine covers about RE Bubble...Washington Mutual, Countrywide, IndyMac, New Century, all of the eventual disaster lenders were well identified in advance of their ultimate blowups.

Same story back in the dot com days. Same in the S&L crisis.
Same in the Nifty 50 1970s. Same in the Roaring 20s.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:35 | 4246561 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Believe me - for the vast majority of the masses - based on corporate mass media and other medications - this will come out of nowhere. That doesn't mean that it will for everyone.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:46 | 4245322 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Whew, I sure am glad the market is rigged or this could be problematic.

We have been in a slow-down since roughly August.  What I've been seeing in terms of economic signals in the real world (if there is such a thing) agrees with this:

"In addition, as I wrote about the other day, rail traffic is way down right now.  In fact, for the week ending November 30th, U.S. rail traffic was down 16.3 percent from the same week one year earlier.  That is a very important indicator that economic activity is getting slower."

Where the talking heads are getting their talking points about an accelerating recovery, I don't know.  I'm seeing quite the opposite and have been for months now.  Shipping, electricity production- all the suff that signals the strength of the real economy is soft to shrinking.

Thank God none of that matters to my investments any more.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:46 | 4245323 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You get rid of the FED, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgue and the globalists in D.C. and there'll be a chicken in every pot. What we have here is a cancer up this great nation that is commonly know as Globalists and Central Banksters. The time has come when we as a people must purge ourselves of this evil disease and move on.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:50 | 4245337 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I've been reading this shit for four years now. The world has felt like it's been on edge for the same amount of time. I have the suspicion that the world will feel the same way and we will be reading this again the same time next year.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:06 | 4245377 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Why was it that we used to think that the ecomomy had anything to do with asset prices?  God, we must have been crazy.  What were we thinking?  Some sort of mass-delusion is all I can come up with.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:36 | 4245595 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Blood won't be allowed to flow in the streets because of numbers on a screen.  I don't really understand why folks on ZH wave hands over their heads about QE and debt/GDP and all the other horrific parameters we live with every day.

If numbers are about to kill millions, they will just change the numbers by decree.  Why is this hard to grasp?

These things won't kill millions.  Only physics will.  When more oil is required to transport food to people than is coming out of the ground, then millions will die.  The only numbers that can't be changed by decree are the joules and calories numbers.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:12 | 4245982 Loose_Cannon
Loose_Cannon's picture

An excellent point, and worth keeping in mind.  However, in this complex society the monetary system can be thought of as the "operating system".  Crash it, and bad things happen.  We would still have the same industrial capacity, arable land, etc. etc. but our systems for allocation and distribution would take some time to readjust.  Ultimately it is the hard physical limits that will be our bane, until then we have our invented pain.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:24 | 4246230 Learn more and ...
Learn more and know less's picture

Back in 2007 when oil began the rapid rise to $147, house prices reached their peak and the Northern Rock went under. It looked like we were on the verge.

Then again, looking back, I ran a confernece on the coming oil crunch, and predictions for a peak oil were mostly in or around the 2013 range. Fracking might extend this for a couple of years, but the energy invested is so high, it is unlikely to make much difference to the economy. The point about PO is that peak production is not that important, it's all about the cost of extraction.

So, will 2014 see the crash? I'm coming to the opinion that there might never be one, as the years tick by asset prices will remain so high, that the bewildered herd don't even notice that everybody is getting poorer.

Will it be war, will it be chaos, only time will tell. Que sera sera.

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:29 | 4246544 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Around that time, I read somewhere that the estimations were that we had about 5 years before the spigots turn off for the general population. The military thought it could go on for about 10 years.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:10 | 4246836 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Damm straight!! The economy is a physical system. Money is just a claim on food and usable energy. One reason TPTB have kept the show on the road this long is the whole fracking boom. But that too will come to an end at some point.  The real question is when will Saudi Arabia's oilfields go into terminal decline? My guess is that the fracking boom will end at about the same time. That is when the real shit hits the fan.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 17:55 | 4247008 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Actually, those numbers on those screens could hasten things along for the US, considering how much crude we import.  Anything that kills the dollar's status as the reserve currency is going to be a severe shock to our ability to import crude oil.  Not even considering the effects of all of those foriegn held dollars coming home all of a sudden, essential goods would get very expensive very quickly for us. 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 11:23 | 4248103 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Petrodollar status is what allows us to export inflation and largely avoid the inflationary consequences of maniacal money printing here in the states. If the dollar loses reserve currency status, i.e. more countries start leaving the dollar out of oil transactions (Russia and China, anyone?), demand for dollars crumbles, bonds tank, and the resulting rise in interest rates blows the whole thing into tiny sizzling bits. Keep your eye on the status of the petrodollar (could this be why we do the bidding of the Saudi's in the ME? Nah, we're just drinkin' buddies).

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:52 | 4247264 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

It isn't nearly the simple or straight-forward because of incremental technological improvements on extraction and usage of the 'go-juice' but your general gist is right.  I would only imagine where things would be right now if we hadn't had the huge uptick in natural gas and oil production in the US and Canada. 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:11 | 4245391 Pareto
Pareto's picture

......and the year after that.......and the year after that........and the year after that

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:20 | 4245552 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

I hope so, Dr. Engali, however there is no reasonable doubt that the basic facts are driving things towards some practically guaranteed breaking point ... Furthermore, there is no doubt that the longer that is postponed, then the worse it will finally become.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:56 | 4245774 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

They can print till hell freezes over which is what makes the deficit clock a joke. The numbers are what they say they are. Gun sales and the hungry cold and homeless (no idiot box) will one day get their belly full and I'm not talking food. The numbers keep increasing. Until that day the song remains the same.

Our alleged leaders are shameless psychopaths that will stop at nothing.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:47 | 4245956 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Yes, WG, and, stopping at nothing includes starting wars!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/war-china-inevitable

"Global financiers created the circumstances that have led to America’s probable economic demise, but they don’t want to be blamed for it. War provides the perfect cover for monetary collapse ..."

As Celente is quoted by Snyder in this article above: "something to divert our attention!" 

The social responses which the ruling classes have prepared are going to cause death insanities, probably in the form of more false flag attacks, as "something to divert our attention," triggering more genocidal wars, and the imposition of democidal martial law. I wish I could see some way to stop that, but it seems to me to be only a question of time, since IN FACT "Our alleged leaders are shameless psychopaths that will stop at nothing."

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:20 | 4245556 Overfed
Overfed's picture

In the Boy Who Cried Wolf, a wolf finally did make an appearance. God only knows how long it really took.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:06 | 4246043 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Of course. But I'd like you to reflect on the following: Although that boy wasn't even right once a day, a broken clock is dead on TWICE a day.

Screw the perms-Bulls and perma-Bears! You need NEITHER. All you need is: stick to fundamental and time-proven principles of Asset Diversification to realize opportunities and mitigate risk. Index funds are better than 90% of other funds, and way cheaper. Do some speculation (5-10%), have an investment window in mind, have a mix of Primary, Secondary and Tertiary assets.

Make a plan, stick to it, review it once per quarter, tweak each quarte, adjust once a year. Etc, etc, etc.

The BEST book you'll read, IMO, is The Millionaire Next Door. A classic.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:22 | 4246653 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

"The Millionaire Next Door"

Agree with that.  For so many reasons....  Both to keep sane but also to prepare.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:14 | 4246336 hootowl
hootowl's picture

Unless you are shorting everything you can afford to short, you won't have to read it next year in order to believe it next year.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:18 | 4246760 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

I have been reading this for years too.  The world is still turning and wars and rumors of wars are still rampant as are natural disasters, etc.

As the title so neatly sums up, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero, so we will all die anyway, sooner or later.

No use worrying about it, it is sufficient to meet each day head on dealing with the stuff which affects us personally as I am sure I have no influence over the Fed, Obama, CIA, NSA, Banks or anything else and there are not enough people out there willing to blacklist a corporation or government entity to make a difference as long as food and shelter is available along with smartphone and TV.

Better to find some peace and happiness in our own little worlds than worrying about something which may or may not happen.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:52 | 4245344 stant
stant's picture

10k folks were sold a ticket on a airplane that only holds 100 . and it was built by the co that had the highest bid and sub it out to the co with lowest bid

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:52 | 4245345 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Throw some carnivora in there and you'd have a great article.

I did like the way Gerald Celente put it. Globalists are coming after those dudes money not mine.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 20:55 | 4245347 Salah
Salah's picture

One thing's for sure....the 'Mother of All Cardinal Squares' in astrological terms occurs last half of April, and it does aspect the natal chart of the USA.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:12 | 4245397 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

The mother of all what does aspect the what of the where?

What the fuck.

Bring back the bible quoting, at least I can understand that.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:42 | 4247158 WarPony
WarPony's picture

The Vatican, also guided by former Goldman squid Sutherland, certainly follows this 'science' to arrive at conclusions which reverberate world-wide, using their observatory and mystery religion numerology.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 22:39 | 4245607 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Is this some more Arch Crawford 'wisdom'?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:58 | 4245776 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Just in time for April 15.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:41 | 4246747 WarPony
WarPony's picture

To elaborate, in an "Aquarian Soltions" perspective, the "Mother of All Cardinal Squares" is found here and here.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 14:36 | 4248580 macbone
macbone's picture

Agreed. Macbone says watch out for Uranus in April. And make sure you have a firm grip on your pinga in May.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:01 | 4245365 new game
new game's picture

it will arrive with a vengence that will leave you breathless, like 911.

the money games will unravel as balance of long and short term durations stress the system of debt.

the balance and natural returns are out of wack(zirp). 

when we saw 3 on 10 approach, every important dealer was summened to dc.

the derivitives market was being threatened.

that day is upon us, but when is anybodies guess...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:06 | 4245379 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

When?

I'm absolutely sure it will be sometime in the future.

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:20 | 4246056 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Look, we're all adults here, right? In which case, let's cut the drama, hype and BS.

The REAL reason >50% are here, is to glean info that will help us to learn (what we may not learn elsewhere) and then FRONT-RUN with our investments.

Although plenty seem to come here to "vent", be witty, shill/sell or troll.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 06:19 | 4246147 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

It's quite obvious to all that I'm here to be witty.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:10 | 4246221 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Having read "Alice in Wonderland" as a youth, and having determined to take the advice given in the book about believing as many as six impossible things before breakfast every day, I come to ZH to add to my list of impossibilities in which to believe. 

This time is different.

The FED will taper soon.

Silver bitchez!

These are just a few of the lines from ZH that join those other classics, such as

I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you.

If you like your doctor, you can keep him.

Etc.

Does this fit in your "be witty" category?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 21:01 | 4245367 stant
stant's picture

ps where marty armstrong on this one? yes hes crazy but he had gold right

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:29 | 4245712 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

October 1st, 2015, the big one, but with a sizable pre-burp somewhere around early April 2014.  Keep tuned.  

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