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Is War With China Inevitable?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

As a general rule, extreme economic decline is almost always followed by extreme international conflict. Sometimes, these disasters can be attributed to the human survival imperative and the desire to accumulate resources during crisis. But most often, war amid fiscal distress is usually a means for the political and financial elite to distract the masses away from their empty wallets and empty stomachs.

War galvanizes societies, usually under false pretenses. I’m not talking about superficial “police actions” or absurd crusades to “spread democracy” to Third World enclaves that don’t want it. No, I’m talking about REAL war: war that threatens the fabric of a culture, war that tumbles violently across people’s doorsteps. The reality of near-total annihilation is what oligarchs use to avoid blame for economic distress while molding nations and populations.

Because of the very predictable correlation between financial catastrophe and military conflagration, it makes quite a bit of sense for Americans today to be concerned. Never before in history has our country been so close to full-spectrum economic collapse, the kind that kills currencies and simultaneously plunges hundreds of millions of people into poverty. It is a collapse that has progressed thanks to the deliberate efforts of international financiers and central banks. It only follows that the mind-boggling scale of the situation would “require” a grand distraction to match.

It is difficult to predict what form this distraction will take and where it will begin, primarily because the elites have so many options. The Mideast is certainly an ever-looming possibility. Iran is a viable catalyst. Syria is not entirely off the table. Saudi Arabia and Israel are now essentially working together, forming a strange alliance that could promise considerable turmoil — even without the aid of the United States. Plenty of Americans still fear the Al Qaeda bogeyman, and a terrorist attack is not hard to fabricate. However, when I look at the shift of economic power and military deployment, the potential danger areas appear to be growing not only in the dry deserts of Syria and Iran, but also in the politically volatile waters of the East China Sea.

China is THE key to any outright implosion of the U.S. monetary system. Other countries, like Saudi Arabia, may play a part; but ultimately it will be China that deals the decisive blow against the dollar’s world reserve status. China’s dollar and Treasury bond holdings could be used as a weapon to trigger a global sell-off of dollar-denominated assets. China has stopped future increases of dollar forex holdings, and has cut the use of the dollar in bilateral trade agreements with multiple countries.  Oil-producing nations are shifting alliances to China because it is now the world’s largest consumer of petroleum. And, China has clearly been preparing for this eventuality for years. So, given these circumstances, how can the U.S. government conceive of confrontation with the East? Challenging one’s creditors to a duel does not usually end well. At the very least, it would be economic suicide. But perhaps that is the point. Perhaps America is meant to make this seemingly idiotic leap.

Here are just some of the signs of a buildup to conflict...

Currency Wars And Shooting Wars

In March 2009, U.S. military and intelligence officials gathered to participate in a simulated war game, a hypothetical economic struggle between the United States and China.

The conclusions of the war game were ominous. The participants determined that there was no way for the United States to win in an economic battle with China. The Chinese had a counterstrategy to every U.S. effort and an ace up their sleeve – namely, their U.S. dollar reserves, which they could use as a monetary neutron bomb, a chain reaction that would result in the abandonment of the dollar by exporters around the world . They also found that China has been quietly accumulating hard assets (including land and gold) across globe, using sovereign wealth funds, government-controlled front companies, and private equity funds to make the purchases. China could use these tangible assets as a hedge to protect against the eventual devaluation of its U.S. dollar and Treasury holdings, meaning the losses on its remaining U.S. financial investments was acceptable should it decide to crush the dollar.

The natural response of those skeptical of the war game and its findings is to claim that the American military would be the ultimate trump card and probable response to a Chinese economic threat. Of course, China’s relationship with Russia suggests a possible alliance against such an action and would definitely negate the use of nuclear weapons (unless the elites plan nuclear Armageddon). That said, it is highly likely that the U.S. government would respond with military action to a Chinese dollar dump, not unlike Germany’s rise to militarization and totalitarianism after the hyperinflationary implosion of the mark. The idea that anyone except the internationalists could “win” such a venture, though, is foolish.

I would suggest that this may actually be the plan of globalists in the United States and their counterparts in Asia and Europe. China’s rise to financial prominence is not due to its economic prowess. In fact, China is ripe with poor fiscal judgment calls and infrastructure projects that have gone nowhere. But what China does have on its side are massive capital inflows from global banks and corporations, mainly based in the United States and the European Union. And, it has help in the spread of its currency (the Yuan) from entities like JPMorgan Chase and Co. The International Monetary Fund is seeking to include China in its global basket currency, the SDR, which would give China even more leverage to use in breaking the dollar’s reserve status. Corporate financiers and central bankers have made it more than possible for China to kill the dollar, which they openly suggest is a “good thing.”

Is it possible that the war game scenarios carried out by the Pentagon and elitist think-tanks like the RAND Corporation were not meant to prevent a war with China, but to ensure one takes place?

The Senkaku Islands

Every terrible war has a trigger point, an event that history books later claim “started it all.” For the Spanish-American War, it was the bombing of the USS Maine. For World War I it was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. For U.S. involvement in World War I, it was the sinking of the Lusitania by a German U-Boat. For U.S. involvement in World War II, it was the attack on Pearl Harbor. For Vietnam, it was the Gulf of Tonkin Incident (I recommend readers look into the hidden history behind all of these events). While the initial outbreak of war always appears to be spontaneous, the reality is that most wars are planned far in advance.

As evidence indicates, China has been deliberately positioned to levy an economic blow against the United States. Our government is fully aware what the results of that attack will be, considering they have gamed the scenario multiple times. And, by RAND Corporation’s own admission, China and the United States have been preparing for physical confrontation for some time, centered on the concept of pre-emptive strikes.  Meaning, the response both sides have exclusively trained for in the event of confrontation is to attack the other first!

The seemingly simple and petty dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea actually provides a perfect environment for the pre-emptive powder keg to explode.

China has recently declared an “air defense zone” that extends over the islands, which Japan has already claimed as its own. China, South Korea and the United States have all moved to defy this defense zone. South Korea has even extended its own air defense zone to overlap China’s.

China has responded with warnings that its military aircraft will now monitor the region and demands that other nations provide it with civilian airline flight paths.  China has also stated that it plans to create MORE arbitrary defense zones in the near future.

The U.S. government under Barack Obama has long planned a military shift into the Pacific, which is meant specifically to counter China’s increased presence. It’s almost as if the White House knew a confrontation was coming.

The shift is now accelerating due to the Senkaku situation, as the U.S. transfers submarine-hunting jets to Japan while pledging full support for Japan should war ignite.

And most recently, the Japanese press has suggested that war between the two countries could erupt as early as January.

China, with its limited navy, has focused more of its energy and funding into advanced missile technologies — including “ship killers,” which fly too low and fast to be detected with current radar.  This is the same strategy of cheap compact precision warfare being adopted by countries like Syria and Iran, and it is designed specifically to disrupt tradition American military tactics.

Currently, very little diplomatic headway has been made or attempted in regards to the Senkaku Islands. The culmination of various ingredients so far makes for a sour stew.

All that is required now is that one trigger event — that one ironic “twist of fate” that mainstream historians love so much, the spark that lights the fuse. China could suddenly sell a mass quantity of U.S. Treasuries, perhaps in response to the renewed debt debate next spring. The United States could use pre-emption to take down a Chinese military plane or submarine.  A random missile could destroy a passenger airliner traveling through the defense zone, and both sides could blame each other. The point is nothing good could come from the escalation over Senkaku.

Why Is War Useful?

What could possibly be gained by fomenting a war between the United States and China?  What could possibly be gained by throwing America's economy, the supposed "goose that lays the golden eggs", to the fiscal wolves?  As stated earlier, distraction is paramount, and fear is valuable political and social capital.

Global financiers created the circumstances that have led to America’s probable economic demise, but they don’t want to be blamed for it. War provides the perfect cover for monetary collapse, and a war with China might become the cover to end all covers. The resulting fiscal damage and the terror Americans would face could be overwhelming. Activists who question the legitimacy of the U.S. government and its actions, once considered champions of free speech, could easily be labeled “treasonous” during wartime by authorities and the frightened masses. (If the government is willing to use the Internal Revenue Service against us today, just think about who it will send after us during the chaos of a losing war tomorrow.) A lockdown of civil liberties could be instituted behind the fog of this national panic.

Primarily, war tends to influence the masses to agree to more centralization, to relinquish their rights in the name of the “greater good”, and to accept less transparency in government and more power in the hands of fewer people. Most important, though, is war's usefulness as a philosophical manipulation after the dust has settled.

After nearly every war of the 20th and 21st century, the subsequent propaganda implies one message in particular: National sovereignty, or nationalism, is the cause of all our problems. The establishment then claims that there is only one solution that will solve these problems: globalization. This article by Andrew Hunter, the chairman of the Australian Fabian Society, is exactly the kind of narrative I expect to hear if conflict arises between the United States and China.

National identity and sovereignty are the scapegoats, and the Fabians (globalist propagandists) are quick to point a finger. Their assertion is that nation states should no longer exist, borders should be erased and a one-world economic system and government should be founded. Only then will war and financial strife end. Who will be in charge of this interdependent one world utopia? I’ll give you three guesses...

The Fabians, of course, make no mention of global bankers and their instigation of nearly every war and depression for the past 100 years; and these are invariably the same people that will end up in positions of authority if globalization comes to fruition. What the majority of people do not yet understand is that globalists have no loyalties to any particular country, and they are perfectly willing to sacrifice governments, economies, even entire cultures, in the pursuit of their "ideal society".  "Order out of chaos" is their motto, after all.  The bottom line is that a war between China and the United States will not be caused by national sovereignty. Rather, it will be caused by elitists looking for a way to END national sovereignty. That’s why such a hypothetical conflict, a conflict that has been gamed by think tanks for years, is likely to be forced into reality.

 


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Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:15 | Link to Comment suicidalpsychologist
suicidalpsychologist's picture

same old story repeating itself over and over again...

 

Already explained in:

 

http://postimg.org/image/ovljj5w9b/

 

Dont read if even slightly depressed...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

They even said in one of the "fuck you" videos to us: "there's a one-a-birrion of us and onri three hundred mirrion of you. It crearry wourd'nt work."

edit: only skimmed it, but the funny part is, whatever he wrote has been written jillions of times already. This just happens to be the last iteration. ;)

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

if all the current and former students sending money and/or communications to family in prc are labeled as associating-with-the-bad-guys per ndaa, then US tech grinds to an instant halt

on the plus side, less crowded halls at mit

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:02 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

At least now after reading this article, we can conclude that the ghost cities in China were not a result of Sino irrational exuberance. It was in preparation for war and mass relocation of a displaced populace from the missile ravaged cities of eastern China.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-21/chinas-ghost-cities-are-multipl...

(Its a theory anyway)

For the record, my two years (early 2000's) in China were some of the best times that I have enjoyed. The people were polite and industrious. The history and tradition was awe inspiring. And the dedication to ones extended family was honorable. In lieu of war perhaps we could re-learn from many Chinese the values we seem to have forgotten in the US.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:03 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

every time I think I've learned how to not get despondent when reading zh, something like this gets posted

sheesh

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

No war with china. Who would make our supplies? Are there even enough textile mills left to cloth our soldiers? We won World War 2 because of our industrial might. Sadly, the US doesn't have any industrial might left. China does.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:31 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

We may one day go nuclear with China. And it will likely be due to an error of judgement rather than an act of war. Just like the 9 nuclear close calls of the 20th century.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/the-9-times-world-almost-entered.html

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:10 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Or maybe a planned event. Maybe Mutually Assured Economic Expansion will replace Mutually Assured Destruction?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:57 | Link to Comment wintermute
wintermute's picture

Wow! Good thing Obama has the Nobel Peace Prize.

He'll make sure a sensible diplomatic solution is found.

Night, night. Sleep tight.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 06:01 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

OK, so they have an overwhelming hedge of a billion or so folks...

the smog there is worse than a nuclear winter.

what could go wrong?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 08:12 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

We could always price ourselves out of the mkt and let the foriegn vaccum fill the void.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Ayr Rand
Ayr Rand's picture

The authors are ignorant on many counts. For example, dollar dump.

First, the Chinese US Treasury holdings are all held by the Fed in trust. The Fed or Treasury could simply zeroize the value of those bonds, or refuse to make them negotiable (same thing). In other words, zero leverage. Maybe less than zero. 

Second, does anybody really think China and Russia will ally? They are the principal competitors on the planet. And even if they did, so what? Russia is a country that has already defaulted on its debt (hence its low debt/GDP) and China's debt is very high and increasing faster than any other country. These are the debt pariahs of the world, who covet each other's lands and resources. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

If we go to war with China it will probably be due to the fact that Chinese are generally assholes.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment runningman18
runningman18's picture

"The Fed or Treasury could simply zeroize the value of those bonds, or refuse to make them negotiable (same thing). In other words, zero leverage. Maybe less than zero"

The fed could do whatever it wants, but they can't force the Chinese or any other nation to continue using the dollar as a reserve currency, so your point is basically irrelevant.  At this point, the dollar will collapse regardless of how the fed or the treasury respond.

As far as China and Russia are concerned, they will always ally where the U.S. is involved. Just look at Syria.  Everybody said the Russians and the Chinese wouldn't lift a finger, let alone work together against U.S. interests, and yet, that's exactly what they did.  When people make such assumptions, they always get bit in the ass...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Truthseeker2
Truthseeker2's picture

They will stir up war, and rumors of war, just like they are doing in the Ukraine.
Civil war has been their weapon of choice lately. 

http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=2980

Kiev Protests: Another CIA-Coordinated Color Revolution In Progress

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hitler and Stalin worked together.So did Churchill.

War , or the threat of war, makes very strange bedfellows.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Everett V. Scott
Dr. Everett V. Scott's picture

 

 

If there is war with China it will be 110% Barak Obama's fault.

 

Why?

 

Because Obama is the polar opposite of Reagan, whose "peace through strength" was proven to the extent that our opponent at the time, the Soviet Union, collapsed completely without a shot being fired.

 

If there is any action that entices China to open hostilities, it is Obama's gutting and politicization of our once-great U.S. military.

 

But then, what should we expect from a Manchurian Candidate?

 

.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

.

Or maybe a planned event. Maybe Mutually Assured Economic Expansion will replace Mutually Assured Destruction?

That would explain the 000000000 launch code... so easy a Krugman can do it!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:18 | Link to Comment scrappy
scrappy's picture

OK - Upfront- I "borrowed" this one.

****************************

One day a man decided to retire…

He booked himself on a Caribbean cruise and proceeded to have the time of his life, that is, until the ship sank.

He soon found himself on an island with no other people, no supplies, nothing, only bananas and coconuts.

After about four months, he is lying on the beach one day when the most gorgeous woman he has ever seen rows up to the shore.

In disbelief, he asks, “Where did you come from? How did you get here?”

She replies, “I rowed over from the other side of the island where I landed when my fishing boat sank.”

“Amazing,” he notes. “You were really lucky to have a row boat wash up with you.”

“Oh, this thing?” explains the woman. ” I made the boat out of some raw material I found on the island. The oars were whittled from gum tree branches. I wove the bottom from palm tree branches, and the sides and stern came from an Eucalyptus tree.”

“But, where did you get the tools?”

“Oh, that was no problem,” replied the woman. ” On the south side of the island, a very unusual stratum of alluvial rock is exposed. I found that if I fired it to a certain temperature in a volcanic vent I found just down island, it melted into ductile iron and I used that to make tools and used the tools to make the hardware.”

The guy is stunned.

“Let’s row over to my place,” she says “and I’ll give you a tour.” So, after a short time of rowing, she soon docks the boat at a small hand built wharf. As the man looks to shore, he nearly falls off the boat.
Before him is a long stone walk leading to a cabin and tree house.

While the woman ties up the rowboat with an expertly woven hemp rope, the man can only stare ahead, dumb struck. As they walk into the house, she says casually, “It’s not much, but I call it home. Please sit down.”

“Would you like a drink?”

“No! No thank you,” the man blurts out, still dazed. “I can’t take another drop of coconut juice.”

“Oh, it’s not coconut juice,” winks the woman. “I have a still. How would you like a Jack Daniels neat?”

Trying to hide his continued amazement, the man accepts, and they sit down on her couch to talk. After they exchange their individual survival stories, the woman announces,
“I’m going to slip into something more comfortable. Would you like to take a shower and shave? There’s a razor in the bathroom cabinet upstairs.”
No longer questioning anything, the man goes upstairs into the bathroom. There, in the cabinet is a razor made from a piece of tortoise bone. Two shells honed to a hollow ground edge are fastened on to its end inside a swivel mechanism.

“This woman is amazing,” he muses. “What’s next?”

When he returns, she greets him wearing nothing but a bandana around her blonde locks and some small flowers on tiny vines, each strategically positioned, she smelled faintly of coconut oil. She then beckons for him to sit down next to her.

“Tell me,” she begins suggestively, slithering closer to him, “We’ve both been out here for many months. You must have been lonely. When was the last time you had a really good ride? She stares into his eyes.

He can’t believe what he’s hearing. “You mean…” he swallows excitedly as tears start to form in his eyes,

“You’ve built a Harley?”

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:36 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I ran into her on that same island. After giving me a similar tour, instead of asking me about a good ride, she looked at me with her ocean green eyes and inquired, "would you like to play around?"

I was astonished and replied excitedly, "oh my, you've crafted a set of golf clubs???"

That's when she stabbed me in the neck with her razor sharp, tortoise bone shiv.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 06:29 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Nice one.

Nowadays, the gag line would be “You built an X-box with Grand Theft-Auto?”

This is too precious.. really.. I was at the library this evening getting a DVD of “South Pacific” when a 17 or so year old kid ran up to the matron-in-charge exasperated because his time in the computer cube expired and his “game” was still in progress.

I commented “no problema, you are toast now, anyway”.

.. that is what you get when you depend on the government for your all-important games.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment G.O.O.D
G.O.O.D's picture

I ran into her on that same island. After giving me a similar tour, instead of asking me about a good ride, she looked at me with her ocean green eyes and inquired, "you have something I want and I have something you want" I said, "hot damn you mean you have some Copenhagen?"

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Jannn
Jannn's picture

Shanghai Gold Exchange Physical Delivery Equals Chinese Demand, Part 2 http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/shanghai-gold-exchange-physical-delivery-equ...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Spumoni
Spumoni's picture

Thank you Scrappy...I even had to forward that to my wife.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

"values we seem to have forgotten in the US."

I absolutely disagree. We have the NFL & American Idol.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:15 | Link to Comment e2thex
e2thex's picture

In two hundred years it's gonna look a lot different.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment czardas
czardas's picture

China's population is actually much more exposed than ours.  The vast majority live in a small arc from Biejing to Zhejiang with another mass in Gjangdong.  But why should China suddenly change and get all expansionary?   Chinese history two features - supremacy of the State above the individual and the accompanying xenophobia / inherent racism of the Han (much like the Brahmans).  These haver long prevented her from any relationship other than master-slave even with overwhelming advantages   Seems most the learning is in reverse.  It is they who mimic our cinema, music, literature, science and technology.  

I doubt China wants a near fatal end of her civiziliation (what would happen in a war with the US) but she can hang on for a financial victory.  As her exploitation of Africa and South America reveals, her only interest is enhancing the Chinese state.  

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment mumcard
mumcard's picture

You think Obamao would wipe out the Chinese civilization?  I doubt any of our "leaders" have the stones to authorize a single nuclear attack, even if it meant saving America.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Now that the War On Terror is entering a quieter time (a change in focus from full-scale occupation to proxy coups, global mass surveillance, regime-topplings and wedding-bombings), Obama, the nerdish, yet violence-prone Commander, continues to try to prove he is the number-one warmonger on the planet (with his veiled threats toward Iran and North Korea and his explicit "Pacific Military Pivot").  Now cue up Biden, Clinton, Rice, Powers, King, McCain, Kerry, Feinstein, the Generals, etc......

Stage is set for anything....Iran could be a practice run....

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:16 | Link to Comment ich1baN
ich1baN's picture

You started off right, then you ended wrong. US Tech grinds to a halt? What? 

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Kind of makes you wonder why they are spending money on bitcoin , so they can move it around.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment carlnpa
carlnpa's picture

The US has plenty of "tech" guys, they have been displaced by H1B workers.  The H1B tech guys are virtual slaves that work for peanuts compared to US tech guys.

BTW the US tech guys blow away the H1B guys - because they are creative and have not been trained to think as rigidly.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

The ChiComs are carefully weighing Obama's wussy incompetence...

Against their rising war-footing competence.

When they feel they have an advantage...

There WILL be war.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

From a propaganda minister's standpoint, I would blame the smog on the Americans.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:12 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

I wouldn't put it past them to blame their smog on America.

But the most important thing they are doing now...

That will help them the most if it comes to war with the US...

Is their massive buying of gold.

They are many things bad... but they're not fools.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

As I keep saying, average Chinese and Indians have the most wealth mobility on the planet. The rest of everyone has worthless digital assets for the most part. The turn of tides will be great. Many a people will be humbled not too long from now!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:52 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

This is almost conventional wisdom now. I find the logic compelling.

Here's how it could be wrong.

Never before in history has our country been so close to full-spectrum economic collapse

A long chart of Treasury prices will belie that notion. Nixon/Ford/Carter came close to killing the dollar; Volker saved it. We're nowhere near that point right now.

In March 2009, U.S. military and intelligence officials gathered to participate in a simulated war game...

...whose models no longer apply, if they ever did. Remember this was March 2009. QE1 hadn't even happened yet. I'm sure if you plugged all the QE into the model it would have scored an "own goal" - we would have destroyed our own currency. Fed printing of four trillion dollars? Cornering our own Treasury market? And the dollar is still going? Really?

I wouldn't have believed it either. But there it is.

China can dump all its dollar assets now... and they'll get scooped up. The world is short of "safe collateral". If interest rates rise here, dollars will flood back home, driving rates down, the currency up, wreaking havoc on Asian markets... seen this play before.

Plus, as Michael Pettis has observed cogently, dollar assets are balanced by yuan PCoB liabilities. China can't dump dollars without messing up its own debt pile. I doubt this was "war gamed" either.

The US doesn't have many friends but the "dollar system" is actually more than the US, and China is more deeply embedded than it wants. If the Chinese people knew the extent to which their system was entwined with ours they'd be bullshit - their vaunted autarky would be exposed as a state myth. Ironically the cynical US population has a better idea of just how tied at the hip we are (thanks, globalization!) And the Chinese don't have that many friends either.

I'm all for the accumulation of real, hard assets, and hats off to the people / countries that do this.

But short dollar is just another widow-maker trade. May well be a winning one... some day.

In March 2009 the conventional wisdom was that China had the size to pull it off - trip the cascade against the dollar. With QE that situation has changed and the conventional wisdom might always have been wrong.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:02 | Link to Comment garypaul
garypaul's picture

"If interest rates rise here, dollars will flood back home, driving rates down, the currency up, wreaking havoc on Asian markets... seen this play before."

Sorry but could you explain how a strengthening USD would be bad for Asian markets??

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:07 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Sure - much of their bubbalicious frothiness is driven by investors in the dollar world - they want to invest where there's growth, so they buy assets of emerging economies - and short (sell) dollars to buy those assets (in local currency). Then when there's a crisis, or "risk free" dollar assets are on sale, or liquidity evaporates, they get out of Dodge, and come roaring back into the US - dollar strengthens.

We saw this during the "taper tantrum" in July. Foreign markets sold off heavily as the 10 year rate climbed to 3%.

A full-retard dump from the PBoC and SAFE would probably drive the rate much higher than that - but _then_ what would happen? The resulting economic slowdown would give the Fed perfect excuse to just buy moar. 

When the Fed had $800B of liquidity in the system I would have believed that monetizing $1T of "dumped" Treasuries would have been fatal to the US. But now you're expecting me to believe that the jump from $4T to $5T will be fatal? C'mon! 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Two superb posts!  Plus ones my friend

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment czardas
czardas's picture

Very true.  If the Chinese wanted maximum affect they would have continued merrily buying dollars then stopped.  Instead they allowed the Fed to become the major (only?) buyer and though ZHers hate it, that is now the new reality - Monetizing USA.  I can easily foresee a dump and within an hour the Fed calmly stating it is buying everything the Chinese are dumping - No Problemo.  For that matter I can easily see NPR making light of a $25T debt as "not important in the long run".

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:11 | Link to Comment runningman18
runningman18's picture

Your pie-in-the-sky theory doesn't make sense.  China created all that liquidity in the Yuan exactly so they could break from the dollar as a world reserve, and they'll certainly have more friends than we will if the U.S. defaults on its debts or continues to print unchecked (which are the only two options anyway).  If anything, the situation is worse than it was in 2009.  The value of any dollar denominated assets they still hold during a devaluation event would be offset by their considerable gold purchases.  There is absolutely nothing stopping the Chinese from dropping the dollar.  In fact, they'e already started the process by cutting new dollar purchases and removing the dollar in bilateral trade with other countries.  It's amazing how people still cling to the delusion that China needs the U.S. to survive economically.  That idea hasn't been valid for the past five years at least.    

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 05:30 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Your pie-in-the-sky theory doesn't make sense. 

Possibly wrong, but not altogether inconsistent either in its internal logic or with recent experience.

China created all that liquidity in the Yuan exactly so they could break from the dollar as a world reserve,

They had to create yuan internally when they bought all those USD denominated assets. That was how the whole currency suppression / capital investment driven economic policy worked. It's also an accounting identity on the PBoC balance sheet. As to the external "yuan liquidity" that is indeed increasing fast, but from a low base. The capital account of the country remains more or less closed. It will open and the yuan's role will increase - gradually.

This is a far cry from being effective as an weapon of war to create sudden instability, which is the topic of this post.

and they'll certainly have more friends than we will if the U.S. defaults on its debts or continues to print unchecked (which are the only two options anyway). 

Explicit default is unlikely. Continued printing inevitable. Where's the cliff? Damned if I know, but assuming that it's the next trillion after four doesn't strike me as particularly compelling.

If anything, the situation is worse than it was in 2009.  The value of any dollar denominated assets they still hold during a devaluation event would be offset by their considerable gold purchases. 

You are assuming that sudden dollar devaluation can be caused - I don't think it can. Not next year anyway. Gold is a fine asset - but any asset that they buy will be bought just as hard as any asset they sell. The Chinese may find their liquidation of UST shockingly orderly. Then they'll be sitting on USD Fed funds reserves. Go ahead PBoC, spend it suddenly. Everything they bid will just go up hard - gold included. Of course they could leave all the USD ones and zeros on deposit at the Fed. How exactly is that a weapon of war?

There is absolutely nothing stopping the Chinese from dropping the dollar.  In fact, they'e already started the process by cutting new dollar purchases and removing the dollar in bilateral trade with other countries. 

Agreed. And it's a fine move and widely telegraphed and anticipated. Andy Xie says maybe 5/10 years. Michael Pettis is more skeptical and sees issues. Damned if I know but I figure that they'll make it work, probably gradually. Dollar will probably break 50% of global trade settlement within a decade. Still leaves the other 50% to displace.

It's amazing how people still cling to the delusion that China needs the U.S. to survive economically.  That idea hasn't been valid for the past five years at least.    

Again, you're conflating two things:

- that China needs the US to survive economically (it remains somewhat entangled, but is working hard to untangle - power to them),

- that China has an effective weapon of war which could destabilize the dollar (and hence the whole global economy, thank you, because if USD goes down in 2014 the collateral damage (heh) will be huge.) I'm looking for the rational that China has such a thing and I don't see it the way I did five years ago. I suspect that QE could have been motivated by precisely just such a result: a way to "defuse" the financial WMD that their Treasury holdings were thought to represent.

Ten years from now the dollar could be trading a lot lower, Shanghai could be the new London, the yuan might be fully convertible and rich Americans could move en mass to holding yuan-denominated accounts in Singapore and HK. But China will have to change for that to happen - dollars remain attractive because America fundamentally remains for sale, and China does not. 

You can't make fiat currency dominate by fiat: you have to turn out your whole nation to do it, and offer stuff that the rest of the world feels comfortable owning*. Given how shockingly large a percentage of total wealth is represented by real estate, the US is always going to have some structural floor on their currency because of it.

So when China fulfills its agenda, it still won't have a financial weapon of war to use against us. It's the sudden moves that kill. 

*[Japanese real estate was bid to the moon - by the Japanese. And crashed. Turns out non-Japanese don't feel exactly welcome in the fabulous resort towns outside Tokyo. Davos and Aspen remain more popular than Mishima. Go figure! China will be the same.]

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 06:32 | Link to Comment Agent700
Agent700's picture

You have a very informed perspective, let me query about a few things.

Yes, the quantity of RMB has increased because of USA trade and the need to manage the Yuan peg. Credit has exploded since the GFC and Beijing's stimulus response, not to mention the shadow banking system here, which because of their closed capital account has created an enormous debt/property bubble inside their borders. When that resets, as it must, the fact that so many Chinese have invested their life savings in real estate will cause unrest for Beijing. I think they realize all of this......

The Chinese and others have been quite clear about their desire to "de-Amercanize", especially now that they have an increasing number of trading partners, currency swaps, energy agreements and (quiet) military agreements (think Russia) and a burgeoning consumer class. There are some power players on the globe who resent the contol the petrodollar has over their economies and geopolitical "freedom", including new subscribers Saudi Arabia and Israel.

All of your thesis rests upon the USD remaining the reserve currency or gradually being phased out. So what if all these players decide to replace it quickly? With the CNY as a base currency? What if Beijing opens up it's capital account and makes the RMB fully convertible at the same time and backs it by gold and the other participating nations economies/currencies? What if they invite foreign investment into their banking systems and create a domestic bond market, in the new currency, overnight?

Yes, the flows in and out would be extremely volatile and disruptive, not only to China but to the global economy, but the playing field would be reset and the chips would fall where they would fall. Beijing would have to accept the outcome, whatever it may be, but in the end they might lead the way to a new monetary system and gain power becasue of that......Catching the USD flat-footed but not destroyed, and perhaps avoiding a shooting war since a large part of the globe would be in on the deal.

What about something like that?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

All of your thesis rests upon the USD remaining the reserve currency or gradually being phased out. 

Agreed.

What if Beijing opens up it's capital account and makes the RMB fully convertible at the same time and backs it by gold and the other participating nations economies/currencies?

Then they risk a run on that convertability to test their credibility. "Backed by gold?" You mean pegged, right? Because I can buy gold with dollars at market rate, so in that sense it's "backed by gold". Pegging is bloody risky. 

What if they invite foreign investment into their banking systems and create a domestic bond market, in the new currency, overnight?

Beyonce had her hands full trying to get her album released "overnight" without leaks. You're saying Beijing could do the same with a new reserve currency? Without the NSA catching wind? I'm sure the NSA knew Beyonce had a new album. Fortunately for her, even they have scruples. With China, not so much. That kind of stuff is what the NSA is for.

You know I wouldn't be surprised if there was a PowerPoint deck or two circulating around the Chinese leadership regarding such a plan. BUt China isn't led by an evil genius or a risk taking maveric. It's led by a freakin' committee. So good luck to whoever's pushing that "ditch the dollar overnight" plan.

And again, see above - for the Chinese to be able to open their capital account, they have to have stuff people want to buy. Foreign investors in Japan are famous for being "tourists". I suspect China would be similar. Credibility is not established overnight (and it is not lost overnight, though the US has been flat out dumping its credibility for a while now).

I want to stress - I'm not claiming I have super insight or that I know I'm right and others are wrong.

I'm simply challenging the conventional wisdom with regard to the Chinese financial "weapon". I can't talk myself into worrying about it too much - gaming out the actual costs and risks, it seems less likely to me.

That said, a sea change, disorderly and "way ahead of schedule", rolling out over 9 to 18 months or so, with a spontaneous cascade of defectors - now that should worry Washington.

If this happens it will likely be because it was nobodies specific intent, rather than somebodies devious plan.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

@Then they risk a run on that convertability to test their credibility. "Backed by gold?" You mean pegged, right? 

Wrong, typical knee jerk reaction to a premise which was false and YOU just decided to run wit it. Their is no credibile test because the premise was a false one.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Care to explain what you mean? What does "backed" mean if there is no peg? It's not knee jerk, it's conventional understanding. The USD was backed by gold and by backed the US meant pegged. Till Nixon ended that.

China can say "We have a metric crap ton of gold. Let's do business in yuan." Ok. That's nice. Where do I convert my yuan to gold? At the coin dealer, just like I do now? So what?

One of us is actually trying to test assumptions here. Doesn't seem to be you.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

You convert your gold today, I'll convert mine tomorrow.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

So you're assuming the price of gold will fall in yuan? So it'll be cheaper tomorrow?

OK... but if the Chinese continue to buy gold, how will that lower the price? 

I can see if the Chinese sell dollars against gold, it will raise the price of gold in dollars...

Which won't bother me, got my gold already, thanks... 

But what will it do to the price of gold in yuan? It can't fall against the yuan without also causing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar. And it's not stock (the net value of Chinese investment in USD assets) but flow (exports to the US - the necessary cashflows to pay the interest on yuan debt owed by Chinese corporates) which will limit policies which strengthen the yuan vs the dollar.

No, still not getting it. Just thick, I suppose. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I suppose you are in trouble at the moment, and in denial of it all the time. You talk in circles and time is not on your side, i've buried a ton of mnds just like yours, and there is no getting thru to you. And even if i personally did prove your hypocrisy, you would simply put your hands over your ears and start to bang your head against the wall. We've been there, done that, and now i can see right thru you, and i'm thru with you.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Dude, why the hostility - go back to his original post and see that the thought process started with the assessment that

This is almost conventional wisdom now. I find the logic compelling.

Here's how it could be wrong.

Did you catch the "could be" part? Even if I disagreed with him, there isn't any stridency there to be attacked. Chill

 

/fight club

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Hey, he's the one who didn't want to smoke the peace pipe!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment czardas
czardas's picture

So what if all these players decide to replace it quickly?    But this is exactly will not happen for one reason:  the incredible amount of effort and time required to set up the mechanisms whereby the dollar is the default unit cannot be replicated "quickly".  Even those states who have announced they will "bypass the dollar" are STILL valuing their currencies in dollars for exchange rates - LOL   (The yuan is converted to dollars then into currency X)  And anyone who has traveled the globe will attest that the demand for yuans is less than zero.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:53 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

We have to keep in mind that the IMF has the SDR concept sitting on the bench so the time and effort part you mention might already be moot. An IMF/Yuan friendly agreement with respect to the SDR would most definitely kill the US overnight. That would provide cover for China to distribute their risk through the IMF as well as take advantage of the existing account settlements network. The US would be cornered into a war scenario.

On the flip side, the US could pull a Volcker as others have said and crank rates up to 18%. The dollar blowback would absolutely crush China and promote other entities in the region(Viet Nam,etc) since China would no longer be lowest cost provider. We're already seeing that theme play out. China would be cornered into a war scenario.

I think we may be looking at the wrong black swan here. What about China going to war with China. The provences aren't real happy with Beijing and social unrest is festering. You know the West doesn't have a monopoly on inept and clueless politicians contrary to Chinese State Run Media reports.

 

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:11 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

On the one hand, an IMF inclusion of the yuan in the SDR would have all the problems that general yuan convertibility would face - there would have to be some external demand for yuan - and the IMF is still largely run by the West - other powers that would suffer greatly in a general dollar demise.

On the other hand, the US has no capacity to "pull a Volker" - not without crushing its own economy. Short rates in excess of a few percent would BK every entity in the US from the local food cart to the Federal Government. We've long since lost our tolerance for that kind of medicine - too much leverage.

Ironically it was the soul-killing inflation of the 70's which made Volker's medicine tolerable - the _real_ rate wasn't totally insane, and the overall debt levels had been paid down thanks to a decade of high inflation. That inflation contained elements of "good" inflation - higher incomes (remember the "wage price spiral?" Now it's just the "price-price escalator").

[Edit - my point being that while I think that China's ability to attack the dollar is overrated, I don't see that the US has much room to defend the dollar anymore, either.]

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:56 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Exactly unless there is a shooting war, the US loses, and even then I don't know if you get a situation where the 'winners' (amusing China and allies) can simply dictate terms as they would largely like. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 23:00 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Rather than using financial weapons in a shooting war, China is probably better served by engaging in deploying "kinetics" in a financial war.

A short, sharp, shocking humiliation - the unanswered and complete destruction of a carrier battle group, for instance - could set off a financial cascade against the dollar quite brilliantly.

Obvious risks in that strategy too. Especially the "unanswered" part.  

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment runningman18
runningman18's picture

Your entire analysis is based on assumption rather than fact.  Let's list just a handful of logical fallacies -

"It will open and the yuan's role will increase - gradually..." 

You forget about the accelerated circulation of Yuan denominated assets in the last three years alone.  There is no indication that a float of the yuan will be slow.  There is no logic to your statement, only blind expectation.

"Explicit default is unlikely. Continued printing inevitable." 

Not necessarily.  Default could very well be the goal of the banksters.  If the Fed commits to a taper of QE, then default is the most likely course.  Remember, they are endeavoring to destroy the dollar, and the dollar can be undermined by default just as easily as overt printing.

"You are assuming that sudden dollar devaluation can be caused - I don't think it can. Not next year anyway."

Why wouldn't it be possible?  Argentina lost 70% value almost overnight, and the U.S. is in a far worse position than they were, considering the value of the dollar rests solely on it's world reserve status, which can be taken away by the Chinese and the IMF in a relatively short period of time.

"Dollar will probably break 50% of global trade settlement within a decade..."

Again, another assumption based on nothing concrete...

"Given how shockingly large a percentage of total wealth is represented by real estate, the US is always going to have some structural floor on their currency because of it..."

You mean the same real estate market that is still suffering from a cancer of derivatives in the quadrillions?  The same real estate market that is being constantly bailed out through Fannie and Freddie?  The same real estate market that is being absorbed by international banks while the middle class crumbles? No, I think you're living in a fantasy land of micro-economics rather than looking at the big picture.  The U.S. has been gutted.  Show me where the real wealth is, and I'll show you how it's actually debt.  The only thing supporting the system today is the dollar's reserve and petro-status.  And, I think it would be extraordinarily foolish for people to assume that our reserve status will be maintained for a decade or more given the speed at which China is breaking away. 


Sat, 12/14/2013 - 19:51 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I think it's really obvious to any close observer that the trend away from the dollar is accelerating.    isn't it obvious where this is heading.  can anyone make a case that the US dollar will remain the reserve currency for 10 years or more?  isn't it obvious that other nations and nations governments can see this as well and are beginning an accelerated process of exiting the dollar?  and if that is the case does anyone want to get in front of the train?  and if that's the case can anyone truly call the timing of this event?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

I agree that it's accelerating - sure seems like it - but again, its from a low base. The yuan still has a long way to run.

But the trend is important - quite correct.

Above in this thread I referred to a scenario where the move away from the dollar is disorderly and happens within 9 to 18 months - maybe not starting now, but sooner than later - a sigmoid shaped curve - and that would be very disruptive.

I don't know that will happen. I don't know it won't. My baseline assumption is still more gradual but I could be wrong. My views are no less cynical than others here; perhaps I just think the players' self interest is a little different - that's all. Personally I don't see vast swaths of the real global economy conspiring to stick the knife in the dollar and take those risks when it's gradually going to fade anyway, with less risk of disruption. The spite is strong on this board and not without reason but that's not (necessarily) how the big players operate.

But even an accelerating trend away from the dollar does not make the yuan a weapon. Show me an argument that the yuan can be a weapon in an actual shooting war.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

It's true I'm making some assumptions, but they aren't baseless.

And yes, the amount of yuan denominated assets are growing - but from a low base. Even if that growth is accelerating, it does not make the yuan a weapon, and that growth will be disrupted by any intentional discontinuity caused by the Chinese in an effort to "weaponize" their financial assets.

You miss my point about real estate. Yes, the financing is fucked - less so now that the properties are finding a cash floor. Mortgages are down but prices are up - why? Cash buyers. My realtor friends are reporting Chinese arriving with suitcases of cash to buy properties - confirming the reports which Tyler et al have been reporting in these pages. 

There is demand for US real estate - at some price. Could be half of what it is now. This is still a floor, which is the point I was making. My argument rested on the intrinsic desirability of US real estate, not price action or financing.

For what it's worth, Spain and Italy and Greece are to some extent in the same boat. Fucked financing. Nice places to live though. 

Where are the nice places to live in China that Westerners are flocking to with suitcases of cash eager to convert into yuan to buy? (Singapore is the closest I can think of... and the Chinese themselves are buying up that shit as well).

The financing of an asset can be fucked and the asset is still OK. This is the case with lots of Chinese fixed capital, their production capacities. Also local government SIV financing which has been written about extensively and may all be underwater. So much talk about "OMG China debt is crazy they're all BK"... even if they are, so what? Ordos doesn't disappear because its BK... someone will want to live there eventually at some price. So they have a floor too, except the demographic that will live in Ordos is more limited that the demographic who would buy in Miami or Las Vegas...

Debt can disappear. Buildings and land can disappear too but it takes more work. Yes, there's debt associated with assets - wealth - but that doesn't mean that asset is "actually debt". Because ontology.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Solarman
Solarman's picture

China can't break the dollar without running massive trade deficits. They won't do that as that means the death of communism. Germany has the same problem.  Their elites love mercantilism.  You must know your enemy better, there will be a civil war in China before China takes America down.

 

The comment you mocked above is not only right on, but it probably is the stick we will beat China with going forward.  Can you say Asian spring?  LOL

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Thanks for making the point about trade deficits.

Quite correct.

It's funny how people like make moral and emotional arguments against accounting identities.

At the end of the day, all that yuan that other governments have to hold as forex (if the yuan becomes a reserve currency) have to come from somewhere. Where, if not trade deficits? What former world reserve currency was established without the sponsoring country running a deficit?

China faces challenges in trying to use their massed foreign assets as a weapon.

You know who knows the nuances of this about ten thousand times better than any of us?

The Standing Committee, that's who. They and their staffers have been over and over it, to be sure.

I don't worry about someone here proving me wrong - I'd welcome it.

I worry about the Standing Committee proving me wrong.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:43 | Link to Comment czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Obama doesn't matter even a little in this game.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:57 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

In the long run, say a decade, probably not...

But in the next year or two or three...

Obama and his failings matter VERY much!

Because the ChiComs know how weak he is!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:18 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

It's not Obama. It's the whole country. Fractured.

I doubt the South and the Midwest will go to war again.

Not for the Northeast and California, anyway.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:04 | Link to Comment Balanced Integer
Balanced Integer's picture

I think you're wrong about that. Hypothetically, if China pulled a Pearl Harbor on Los Angeles, and I wasn't paraplegic, I'd run to nearest Navy office and ask to have my commission reinstated. And I can't stand California, or L.A. in particular.

They might be fuckheads. But they are MY fuckheads. Fuck the ChiComs.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:24 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

I am informed by your comment.

Thanks.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

 

 

.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

And I will watch you fight, get your dick blow off on my 80 inch LED HD TV. Some of us just think war is dumb and disgusted that other people claimed to kill people on our behalf.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:45 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Since the Bald Eagle is far too aggressive for modern American sensibilities a move is underway in high places to replace it as national bird with the more appropriate Americauna breed of chicken. The breed is known for both its exotic plumage and colorful eggs, but it is not as productive as other breeds in egg laying. It is thought to be derived from the Rapanui breed of semi-domesticated fowl common on many islands throughout the Pacific region, Hawaii and Indonesia being two examples of its home range.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment gallistic
gallistic's picture

Didn't the good Doctor Franklin propose a Turkey in the early days of the Republic?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:31 | Link to Comment mumcard
mumcard's picture

If there is war with China, they will not be the ones to start it.  China hasn't started an offensive war in over 2 millennia.  Maybe they've had enough of the bully USA cutting them off from the world's resources.  Resources that America will gladly park it's military upon.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 21:33 | Link to Comment hobopants
hobopants's picture

I just don't see it.

Us military expenditure: 682 Billion

China: 166 Billion

Us Carrier attack groups: 11

China: 1 outdated POS

and we don't even need nukes or carriers

Some examples...

"Four US Navy ballistic missile submarines were converted to be able to salvo launch up to 144 Tomahawk cruise missiles from their modified vertical launch SLBM tubes"

"The Boeing B-52 Stratofortress is a long-range, subsonic, jet-powered strategic bomber. The B-52 was designed and built by Boeing, which has continued to provide support and upgrades. It has been operated by the United States Air Force (USAF) since the 1950s. The bomber is capable of carrying up to 70,000 pounds (32,000 kg) of weapons."

and thats by no means an exhaustive list of options.

We've been fighting with all our limbs tied behind our back these last couple of "wars" because of public and international sentiment. In a real conflict we would level cities and military targets in seconds, not occupy them like retards.

In any future armed conflict the United States would be the aggressor. The chinese are playing at economic warfare, and hoping we will die quietly like the soviets. They are hedging against a US collapse. This posturing is uncharacteristic, but I'm guessing they weren't expecting the strong response from the US and are trying to figure out how to back out without losing face or appearing weak.

The country is in shit condition all the way around, but make no mistake, when gold stopped backing the dollar, our military replaced it.

 

 

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:30 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Skateboarder         Yeah but we have a-birrion more guns and birrions more bullets in the hands of our only three hundred mirrion. That's why Japan and Hitler never thought it was a good idea to come calling on our shores.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 02:04 | Link to Comment WOAR
WOAR's picture

You've never heard of the Alaskan offensive, I take it? Sure, it was a failure, but it still happened. I don't think anyone would make the same mistakes in this decade.

Instead of sending soldiers into the cold to fight off camouflaged and entrenched enemies, imagine those little quad-rotor drones flying by. They would be impossible to see if you painted them white, and a small grenade launcher would definitely leave an impression, even if it only held 3 rounds.

War has changed, it's not about the guns and the people. That can be whittled down over time. A true fighting war in this day and age will be machine versus machine, because casualties will be absolutely unacceptable (3 billion versus 300 million makes every life count).

EDIT:

If you doubt what I'm saying, compare the Tiger Tank to the M4 Sherman.

One was created by a small country, who had to protect it's officers and skilled personnel. The other was mass produced by a much larger country. Specifically, guess how their armor and armament stacked up against each other.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 05:36 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

So Japan is going to build Gundam after all.

Awesome.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment WOAR
WOAR's picture

Something like that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRH8uum8iig

Think more along the lines of those battle suits from Fallout.

Crew survivability is the future. I remember there is a modern British tank who's main boasting point is that none of it's crew has ever died. Not the best armed, but Britain only cares that it's people get home (being a small country).

So...real life Halo.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Solarman
Solarman's picture

Reading the comments it is clear to me that I am probably the only one here with strategic military experience.  If we have a hot war with China, a real one, the Chinese will have 200 million starving citizens in a week.  Their military would be blinded, and without strategic communications and targetting data.

Why? Because we control space, we control the air, and we control the sea.  Also we have strategic reach.  It is no accident that we have a stealth space shuttle ripping around in orbit, placing explosives on every Chinese satellite, or who knows what up there, and last week we announced our next generation laser missle interceptor.  i don't care how fast a Sunburn is, it is not faster than light, and it can't remain in stealth long enough to avoid being targetted for the five seconds needed to bring it down.  Besides we don't need our carriers anywhere near those missles.

Every oil tanker, and food container ship would not go near a Chinese port for fear of sinking.

So the only reason China would risk war with America is to reduce their population.

For the record, I think our elites are criminals and have stolen my country, I am only addressing military reality.

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment mumcard
mumcard's picture

We also have Chinese citizens in every major city in America.  Every university.  Every armed force. 

Not to mention, if China explodes a nuke under the sea near Fukushima it's game over for Japan, the west coast, and if it results in a major tsunami the entire region.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment gallistic
gallistic's picture

Solarman,

You must have amassed and absorbed all your great "strategic thinking" with Westmoreland. The same principles applied there and in a far greater degree.

That worked out well.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

solarman

 

you sound very like the brits in malaysia pre WW11 reassuring each other the japanese were not a threat.  remind us when america has engaged in a battle when it wasn't dominant financially?  when it's resources and budgets were stretched to such a degree? if america decides to engage china militarily the conflict will be completely different from any of america's other recent conflicts...perhaps you may recall america's forays into vietnam, korea, iraq (i hesitate to mention afghanistan for obvious reasons) were not overwhelmingly successful; yet when as a nation it was rich and very much ruler.  certainly, you as a military expert may know differently, but i suspect some military strategists will suggest shying away from actual conflict.  you may be correct, and perhaps relying upon drones and space control will win not simply the day but the war, but it's possible the chinese may surprise such hubris with a thorough knowledge of american hardware and prowess in space.  spying mayn't be entirely new to the chinese.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 22:08 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

You are mixing apples, pears, and oranges together.  Plus, your example is an incredibly poor one because the Aleutian Islands where the Japanese invaded are exactly the kind of extreme environment where technology often breaks down or is limited especially aircraft. 

When push come to shove again too, societies will bleed and in a lot of parts of the world the average life of a rank and file person means almost nothing especially in Southern Asia. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Wrocky wrocky wrocky wrocky

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:06 | Link to Comment rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"Like a dog that returns to its vomit Is a fool who repeats his folly"

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:43 | Link to Comment czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

This person is forgetting the Middle Way of Buddha. There is a way to thread the eye of the needle.

http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/taote-v3.html

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 03:53 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Sorry, but this is a "filler" article. Weak, poor.

Check your history books: China has historically not been an expansionist empire. The US has.

In how many fucking countries around the world does the US have DoD, NSA and CIA bases? Who has been in more wars than anyone else? The US (that cocksucker FDR) was strangling Japan for years before Pearl Harbor, they knew it was coming. The Lusitania was deliberate, Tonkin Bay was a lie and a fraud.

The RAND Corp is a NEOCON think-tank.

Eventually the USD will loose its GRC status, and deservedly so. The world and the US will be better off for it. The problem is, the MISC (Military, Industrial, Surveillance Complex) won't give up their lifestyles and paychecks that easily.

And the Neocon Zionists and bankers who run the UK, US and Israel, won't quit either... since an honest Peace would have to be negotiated between Israel and its neighbors.  Time to end the wars, cut the DoD down to 25% its size, and do some Nation Building right here at home.  And let the Damn ME take care of itself. We'll bring the popcorn and enjoy the show.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:37 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

The core of your position is that those who are in charge right now are not going to simply quit.  +1 Kirk.  That really is one of simplest truths about what is going on.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 10:56 | Link to Comment savedbyfreethought
savedbyfreethought's picture

"http://postimg.org/image/ovljj5w9b/" is half smart. It confuses a person's identity with his life, that is it says who you are is the sum of all of  the experiences that you have in life ,this is a very narrow perspective. Who you are as a matter of identity is about what your values are, your personal perferences and your beliefs but not what a person like you who has your character experiences in life.

Some people have this funny idea that because they are given the life in a world where everyone competes with each other all the time and they ought to do the same therefore competitors/ survivors is what they think they are and what their identity must be. They cannot see themselves as anything other than what the game they are born into and not on their own accord demands them to be, as such they are not living their own lives, their lives are living them. "life is there for the making", if you don't live your life then someone will live your life for you by dictating your wants and desires.

Humans are unique in the sense that they have the ability to define their own existence: self determination. It is about believing in the value of a cause just because you do regardless of what other people think and to pursuit it at the expense of priorities that other people consider more important.

The other problem with the article is that it proposes that the worthiness of a person's existence must be and can only be that of the experiences he has in in his lifetime. It therefore ignores perhaps the greatest source of a man's confidence: self-worth, that is a person believes in the value of his existence because of the knowledge that he is who he is i.e. he has self respect for his values and character and that has got nothing to do with the events that he has in his lifetime.

This "get to the top" thing is a tool that the elites use to keep people on the treadmill. It's just an idea and nothing more. It only works because people are dumb enough to think having some sort of recognition , which is itself worthless, is somehow more valuable than what they truly want for themselves. It's a bit like in the army where the top brass want soliders to fight wars but are afraid to die themselves, they come up with fancy medals and BS words like "honor"  which they don't believe in themselves to manipulate gullible people into dying as cannon fodder.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Only one stays at the top.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:28 | Link to Comment OldTrooper
Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:24 | Link to Comment Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

War is a constant. But two nuclear powers slugging it out gets a bit messy for the elite, so the chance of a second nuclear war is much more remote.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:32 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

If it was limited it could clean up a lot of messy problems for TPTB. Four or five nukes on a few stategic financial centers and the collapse can be blamed on that, and any evidence to the contrary destroyed. It'd also whip everyone up into accepting the finalization of a police state in the US.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:20 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Ending this war would be much trickier than starting it.

In fact a decisive finish at a convenient new equilibrium would pretty much cement the view the whole thing was staged.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:56 | Link to Comment WOAR
WOAR's picture

Nukes are completely reprehensible. There is no way to use them and still retain any credibility as a government. If you did it by your lonesome, your entire population would be held in absolute contempt. If it occurred globally, all of the cattle die (and the slavemasters don't want that).

No, there is no using nukes. To wipe out financial data, they would instead blame hackers. That's a safer move, much more believable and tolerable.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

The difference is, thy work and make things, we just do papershuffling and Ctrl-P

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:27 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Don't you mean ineveratabrel........?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:28 | Link to Comment BadDog
BadDog's picture

Excellent analysis of the situation. Since TPTB couldn't get WWW3 started in the Middle East, Asia May be their default start point.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Opinionated Ass
Opinionated Ass's picture

Yes, I agree, excellent analysis.

However one glimmer of hope is that TPTB couldn't get WW3 started against Syria (thanks UK parliament).

...maybe TPTB will fail in their diabolical plan again.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

I wouldn't discount the Middle East quite yet... just because it has not made it into the press lately does not mean it has gone away...

There seems to be an inconsistency... and perhaps someone can clear this up... but on the one hand there is an attempt to start a race war... see all the idiots at sites such as Brietbart beating the racial war drums, and the same can be said on similar black frequented sites... then too there is the fury being whipped up over Amnesty... While it is also clear that the West has been provoking the hell out of Russia and China... I will allow that the West has appeared to weaken itself to provide a more tempting target... still, an internal revolt would appear contrary to the goal of starting a world war... perhaps someone can connect these dots...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Breitbart starting a race war? Are you fucking high? That's been Obama's job since his first day in office.

Obama was clearly put in place to destabilize the USA along every line imaginable, and race is just one of those lines.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:34 | Link to Comment Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

I meant the respondents were reacting to racial provocations by posting racially inflammatory comments...But yes, if you consider all of the articles on the 'knockout game', all of the articles on black on white crime, etc... Unquestionably Breitbart, The Drudge Report, all are involved in racheting up racial hatred... Intentionally or not can be argued...

And you are quite right, Obama has been at this from the start... the two are hardly mutually exclusive.

And no, I am not high, fucking or otherwise, nor did I down flag you...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 15:59 | Link to Comment MedTechEntrepreneur
MedTechEntrepreneur's picture

Because the Progressive media alphabet soup ignores Black on White violence (and Black on Black) , Breibart and Drudge do report it and that makes them guilty of "ratcheting up" racial hatred?  You lack some skills dude.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

I will admit to finding rancorous discourse distasteful... That said, there is a certain irony involved here, as on the one hand you suggest I lack skill, on the other you demonstrate a clear inability to read.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:44 | Link to Comment Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

Santa IS white! jeebus too.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:49 | Link to Comment Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

2x

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:40 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

After TPTB have taken everything that is not tied down, they will drop a war on our heads while they skip out of town. You won't have time to form the lynch mobs if you are playing duck and cover to survive . When we find ourselves broke, starving  and tired of war, we will cave into their new scheme both monetary and societal. If that is world government and a world cryptocurrency then you will agree to their plan just to return to some sort of normalcy. We will beg for it and they know that. And so it begins another ponzi with new generations of slaves to keep them in the best of everything the world has to offer. They get the best and you get the scraps.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:52 | Link to Comment suicidalpsychologist
suicidalpsychologist's picture

/end of thread.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

This is my biggest fear. I usually block it out, thinking my preparations will be good enough, but if the shit gets real on my doorstep we only really have a 50-50 shot. Maybe a little bit better than most.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:03 | Link to Comment CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Nothing's guaranteed, and the unwashed (and armed) masses could certainly overtake any of us, it's true. But you get better odds than 50/50: preps aside (valuable though they are), the fact that you see the reality of the situation allows you to respond better than 90% of the population. Don't underestimate the mental effects of despair and disorientation on so many - it will be debilitating. It won't be easy on the rest of us either, but with an understanding of what's going on, and not being surprised by it, we'll be in a much better position than most.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:41 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Inevitable. I believe that they will nuke the coasts and leave us in the Midwest alone cuz they need the farmland assuming of course the Chinese win. I expect mutual destruction.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:41 | Link to Comment Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

Sun Tzu

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:04 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Economic Hari Kari American style! I'd say we are dong just fine. Yep just sit back and wait.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:04 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

"A skillful leader subdues the enemy without fighting" is how my translation of The Art of War is interpreted. The problem is our "leaders" aren't exactly Monet, Rembrandt and Van Gogh. Our's are more like Curly, Larry and Moe.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pw4BOvWFRBw/TbmiKP1e0YI/AAAAAAAADRc/MvQMRIHi73...
(3 Stooges try painting)

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:50 | Link to Comment scrappy
scrappy's picture

That's why WE must remain VIGILANT.

VERY VIGILANT.

Look up, look down, look back, look around, and have lots of backup and watchers within watchers. And more dark backup.

Yes, they are that good.

1000's of years of Experience in fact.

This is it

Good Luck.

 

 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 05:49 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Damned straight.

Wait... what?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 13:10 | Link to Comment DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

They would want the breadbasket of midwest for sure, so how to get it without an obvious attack? I think that they might favor an EMP attack through a 3rd party -a couple of cargo ships off the coasts or Gulf of Mexico, and viola. WIthin a year 60 to 80% of the population is dead through starvation, disease, (freezing if done in winter), civil war, and you-name-it. Maybe the US military is still in tact, maybe not...and what do they do in response to a terrorist attack like this.  

 

This is more in accord with Sun Tzu's winning through nin fighting.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 22:14 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

And where you do think the nuclear fallout and irridated material if they nuke the West Coat in a large scale fashion would fall? If that occured, it would be global thermonuclear and yeah I would want to be near a major city/base and go up in the initial blast shockwave. 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:35 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Bullshit? only idiots want a war like this. nothing can be gained except the loss of yong lifes for the fucking patriotism.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:17 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Sir. What we want and what we get are two different things. Nobody wants global thermonuclear war.....unless it's a bankster.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:38 | Link to Comment Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

We've become such a comsumption driven spaceship earth that I find it ironic that we see our demise in that which we've labeled to live. To eat. To fuse one nation's cuisine with that of another. And in the end, two nations will light the FUSE to spur a fusion-cuisine of radioactive, nuclear polypeptides for so many to feast on for their (our) last meal. We're all aboard the same spaceship earth. No place to hide, no place to run.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:03 | Link to Comment Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Yeah, the TPP sounds pretty ugly.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:04 | Link to Comment suicidalpsychologist
suicidalpsychologist's picture

We've become such a comsumption driven spaceship earth

Newsflash...it has always been the same, except our ancestors didnt have the means we have today to modify the environment, and they were less numerous...

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Currency war 

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:42 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Submarine hunting jets? 737-800s  dropping buoys?

  P-8 Poseidon

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Yenbot
Yenbot's picture

Is ANOTHER wAR wITH CHINA iNEVITABLE?

There, fixed it for ya. Remember The Yalu River...

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

That was some messed up shit. I've had debates here on ZH about Asian land wars and Yalu river is the best example for staying out of them.

A million screaming Chinamen running through the snow with no shoes or weapons killing the enemy and taking their shoes & weapons.

Americans kill 3, 4, 500 of them before they are overrun.

The good news is the logistics of landing a million + people in the US, clothed or not, is simply impossible.

So just don't try landing troops over there.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:41 | Link to Comment Yenbot
Yenbot's picture

Astute. I also note this:

 Of course, China’s relationship with Russia suggests a possible alliance against such an action...

People unfamiliar with Asian realpolitik often fail to grasp the inherent enmity that exists in China/Russia affairs. People SEE Russian-style military equipment in China, hear that both (were) Communist powers, etc. but fail to understand the fighting between the two Powers on the Siberian borderlands.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:58 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

'Many Russian officials have expressed fear that uninhibited Chinese migration into the Russian Far East and Siberia could lead to an eventual Chinese "land grab."'

That's almost funny after Stalins land grab at the end of wwII. Those Manchurian borders and northern Japanese islands have been disputed by the involved parties ever since then.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

 

Is War With China Ineviable?

 

yes i imagine that once we go to war with China the rest of the allliance will want to join (just like WW2) we may have to refuse their help, after all, a war generates massive economic growth; technology, jobs, manufacturing.  no we have to keep this war all to ourselves, why share the wealth? and the Chinese, well they might be tempted to surrender too soon, and wait for reparations. we can't allow that to happen, they have to be firebombed, and nuked a couple times before they can join the global trade group (well i know they already have, now its time to pay your dues, you slant eyed fanatics!!!) not to mention commie bastards. for once we win a war against a red nation in which they come over to our side. shit we beat the soviets and they're still commies, the bastards. we should have gone to war with China sooner, before Bush and Clinton made then trading partners. (what a bunch of fucking shit that is) we should have marched into Bejing and set down the rules of the workers paradise on our terms. and eventually they would have all the good things right thinking americans have. yep we missed out there doug mca, when they stuck their dick into korea we shoulda cut it off. ah well, better late than never, and free those poor north korean bastards from their idiot leader. son of an idiot. the empire is just getting warmed up. time to kick some chinese asss, yeah

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i see theres some commies picking out their favorite color, by the way i just went out and took all the red lights from my christmas tree display, comrades, blue and green only.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

An omen If I ever saw one for the economy. First black swan event.

 

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f43_1386925641

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I'm no China fan, but this "dog and pony" show is getting old!

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:44 | Link to Comment TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

No worries, we just invalidate all those US Bonds they are holding. That ought to do it! Of course war is coming with China, it's been coming for decades, it's not like we haven't fought them before {Korean War}. They will lose, as the rest of Asia hates their guts allot more than they hate us. I really feel for South Korea though, they along with Japan and Vietnam will get the brunt of it.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     The NORKS are keystroking today.

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:51 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

How many of you feel that war will come to our mainland this time around?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:06 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Not for a few years at least. They just chillin until O walk ands HilBil leads the way to blackened skies.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:22 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Skateboarder            You are probably right, at least about Hitlery and the blackened skies.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Any History buff knows our shores have been penetrated in the past,  U-Boats and Japanese balasts.

  Do you know why they didn't invade? We(civilian population) had GUNS!

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:57 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Yen     Yes we know history but it has not been full blown conflict on our mainland for a very long time. As I posted above in the thread Japan and Hitler thought it unwise to invade our shore as the population is so heavily armed. GOOD REASON to stay that way, don't you think?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 01:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I like your reply and reasoning. People feel helpless. They shouldn't.   ( being armed equalizes alien threats)

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment mumcard
mumcard's picture

The Chinese might land a few million troops in Mexico.  Maybe Vancouver.  Maybe they'll drive right up to the pier in Santa Monica.  The Californians certainly aren't going to fend them off.  Once they have a toehold and are amongst American citizens a lot of our options will not be acceptable to the rest of the public.  You aren't going to nuke the west coast when prevailing winds will carry the fallout straight back over what is left of America.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 16:47 | Link to Comment emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

any history buff knows our shores have been penetrated in the past...

 

911?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 22:35 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

No.  There wasn't a feasible staging area to support the massive logistics needed of a standing army.  Even if the Japanese had invaded the Hawaiian Islands, the US War Dept was concerned about them using it as a staging base to invade the West Coast.  Actually more concerned about the landings in the Aleutians and even that wasn't goign to be a realistic staging point. 

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:02 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

7.2 billion people today in a world probably meant for about 1 billion to live happily.  This will create intense conflict for resources and given trillions spent every year on militaries, war is a given.  Whether we survive nuclear war is the question.

During the Cubam missile crisis, US military leaders wanted to nuke the Soviet Union saying that 40 million Americans dead in a retaliatory strike were acceptable casaulties.  JFK thought they were mad.

In the nuclear age, we have had at least 20 close calls.  How many close calls can we survive?

http://nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-weapons/issues/accidents/20-mishaps-maybe-caused-nuclear-war.htm

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Flammonde
Flammonde's picture

Suppose the Chinese lose a limited regional war?  Consider a rerun of the Falklands.  This could be hysterically funny.  The Red Chinese state comes apart internally and the authority of the Party is gone.  Can the PLA govern? Suppose Tibet breaks away in the chaos?  At the same time the currency carry collapses and the West goes bankrupt as a result of  the victory in 2014.  Who will be the next President?  A Republican or Democrat?  Will it matter?

Fri, 12/13/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

And I thought that I was gonna finally get to retire and fuck off like everybody else.

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:12 | Link to Comment NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Hey Wise                  Now why would you think two old farts like us would ever catch a break?

Sat, 12/14/2013 - 00:01 | Link to Comment JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

If and when the nukes started flying then it's over, stalemate no one wins, so based on that thinking all out war is not inevitable, more like inconceivable.

Hence why nukes are called an deterrent.

 

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