Yet Another Massive Nail In The Dollar's Coffin

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two years ago, the CME announced USD/CNH futures trading enabling speculation (and hedging or risk transfer) of offshore Chinese Renminbi. On the other side of the world this week, a couple of gentlemen that few people have ever heard of signed an agreement that has massive consequences for the global financial system. It was a Memorandum of Understanding signed by representatives of the Singapore Exchange and Hong Kong Exchange. Their aim – to combine their forces in rolling out more financial products denominated in Chinese renminbi. This is huge...

 

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Hong Kong and Singapore are THE two dominant financial centers in Asia. For years they’ve been locked in competition with one another, much like New York and London. So their public partnership is a very big deal… indicative of the clear objective they have in front of them.

Bottom line – finance executives in Asia see the writing on the wall. They can see that the dollar is in a period of terminal decline, and it’s clear that the Chinese renminbi is going to take tremendous market share away from the dollar. They want a big piece of the action.

The renminbi has already surpassed the euro to become the #2 most-used currency in the world when it comes to trade settlement, according to a report released yesterday by the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).

Right now the renminbi has about an 8.6% share of the global market for trade settlement. Granted, the dollar has the lion’s share of trade settlement at more than 80%.

But just look at how quickly the renminbi has grown; in January 2012, its share of the global market was just 1.9%. So it’s grown by nearly a factor of 5x in less than two years.

With today’s agreement between Hong Kong’s and Singapore’s financial exchanges, that growth will likely accelerate.

As we’ve discussed before, the dollar is in a unique position simply because it is the world’s dominant reserve currency.

This means that when a rice distributor in Vietnam does business with a Brazilian merchant, they’ll close the deal by trading US dollars with each other… even though neither nation actually uses the dollar.

It’s been this way since World War II, simply because there has been such a long tradition of trust in the United States, and a steady supply of dollars throughout the world.

But this confidence is fading rapidly as merchants and banks around the world have been seeking alternatives, primarily the Chinese renminbi.

As the dollar’s market share in international trade decreases, it will mean the end of US financial privilege. No longer will the US be able to print money without repercussions.

And as so many other nations have learned the hard way, when you print money with wanton abandon and indebt your nation to the hilt, there are severe consequences to pay.

Last week’s move between Hong Kong and Singapore gives us a glimpse into this future.

We’ll soon see more financial products– oil, gold, Fortune 500 corporate bonds, etc. denominated in renminbi and traded in Asia.

And as trade in these renminbi products grows, the dollar will be closer and closer to its reckoning day.

Years from now when this has played out, it’s going to seem so obvious.

Just like the post-Lehman crash in 2008, people will scratch their heads and wonder– ‘why didn’t I see that coming? Why didn’t I recognize that it was a bad idea to loan millions of dollars to unemployed / dead people?’

Duh. Same thing. People will look back in the future and wonder why they didn’t see the dollar collapse coming… why they didn’t recognize that it was a bad idea for the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world to simultaneously control the global reserve currency…

The warning signs are all in front of us. And last week’s agreement between Hong Kong and Singapore is one of the strongest signs yet.

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Sun, 12/15/2013 - 02:27 | 4247806 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Thanks for pointing that out. I almost clicked the link. Usually outside posts have "guest post" as the header.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 06:42 | 4247936 falak pema
falak pema's picture

No No No, I say we stand for any man's opinion is worth that of another.

Whatever the excruciating pain of reading Fu Man Chuism in plain sight like the mounting debt climbing to Annapurna heights in the sultry plains of Spain where it always rains; I say like the Lady of Shalott : I want my money back, Duckie, as it's plain to see the mirror has cracked from side to side. 

For those who fear the future I say let not Pinochet's nose daunt you by its fascist undertones resounding from disdainful lips. 'Cos behind every great fascist I hear the sweet overtone of Godly reason : There where there is Discord I bring Harmony. 

Harmony, Harmony, Harmony; in a Print to Infinity derivative algorithmic world, by the lords of the Money Temples of the global Scam; the all knowing Shamans of CB Fiat.

When we are there, we are in Nowhere land with a Cyclop hiding behind every bush and down every quarry ready to bushwhack you into never never debt hole all for the glory of never ending fiat. One eyed lady with a determined look and a Gucci bag full of flaccid fiat ready to IMF you! 

Oh what a fest feast this has become, the Temples of money now ready to tell the world : what we say is the Ten Commandments of the new religion. All bow to Akhenaton of the sole God of the new fiat crypto currency Sun; the Egyptian is now back in his glorious chariot to ride the skies enlightening the world with his unique presence. 

Oh Tutankhamun, how I adore you lying there for eternity, the last golden Mummy! 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 06:49 | 4247951 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Fuck yeah.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:14 | 4247982 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hey, I make fun of Simon because we have similarities in professional backgrounds, but I like reading his articles. I think some of his stuff is impractical, but if you have Lots of liquid assets, much of what he says makes sense. Falak is right, any opinion should be welcome on ZH/Fight Club.

Simon was an officer, according to his bio.

 Former senior NCOs have their own opinions.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 13:59 | 4248449 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Sounds like Warden in From here to Eternity.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 11:09 | 4248115 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Jeezus, falak, if you have something to say,please lay off the metaphors, I can't understand a word you're saying.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 15:20 | 4248658 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Falak is an 'intellectual' - understanding him is the last thing he wants.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 15:47 | 4248716 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you mean he can spell "noon" backwards like in "mad dogs and englishmen under the noonday sun"?

Goodbye Lawrence of Arabia...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 16:55 | 4248847 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Harmony, Harmony, Harmony; in a Print to Infinity derivative algorithmic world, by the lords of the Money Temples of the global Scam; the all knowing Shamans of CB Fiat.

Alas, alack, alas, qualifiable and quantifiable. The mattering speech expression is congruently aligned in correspondence with Simon Bar Sinisterism.

The argument that the world can go through much more than that is equivalent to tell that people can live without a hand, a leg so ...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 04:26 | 4247883 Wyatt Junker
Wyatt Junker's picture

Its not about 'China wins, the US loses'.  Who says it has to be binary?  That's a false dichotomy.  

This is merely rebalancing.  

Wal Mart is China's dick inside America's asshole.

That dick has gotten mighty big, but as the Chinese consumer grows with their own Wal Mart-ification over time, this will level off.

Wal Mart was about Chinese mercantilism.  Once China reaches its cruising altitude, it can plane out into consumerism.  Once that hits, say in another 8 years, Wal Mart's growth here in the US shrinks.  Wal Mart is already closing more stores here than its opening and they are downsizing into smaller neighborhood stores.  That is no coincidence.  As the Chinese consumer strengthens look for that to continue. 

But this isn't about China winning and America losing.  Its about a slow transition to where the United States gets some of its manufacturing back(finally) while China learns how to live a little and ... spend a little along the way.  

All in all, a rebalance.  And, a long time coming.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:56 | 4248255 headhunt
headhunt's picture

This comment reads like an article in a Union newspaper.

Communist - Union; what the hell is the difference!?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 06:18 | 4247938 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

I thought we just confirmed that China increased it's currency base by $15 trillion over these past 5 years? With a GDP half our size it's the equivalent of the United States printing $30 trillion.

First we gave them our jobs now we are giving them our Gold. I suspect one day soon China will announce a gold back currency then the dollar may take it's final shit.

Meanwhile I trust what I hear from China even less then the bullshit my own government spews.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 07:18 | 4247966 mantrid
mantrid's picture

"It’s been this way since World War II, simply because there has been such a long tradition of trust in the United States, and a steady supply of dollars throughout the world."

 

funny, Bernanke said similar thing ("gold is long term tradition") about gold and was laughed at here. probably because he forgot to mention "trust".

 

"As the dollar’s market share in international trade decreases, it will mean the end of US financial privilege. No longer will the US be able to print money without repercussions."

 

not so fast, as long as petrodollar system works, US will be able to print.

 

"We’ll soon see more financial products– oil, gold, Fortune 500 corporate bonds, etc. denominated in renminbi and traded in Asia."

 

oil for renmibi? not without bombs first...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 07:30 | 4247967 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

i do not buy into this dollar collapse bullshit, it is not in ANY countries interest to have that happen, ALL would suffe,r BUT i suspect, US manufacturing would prosper.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 08:13 | 4247981 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

Where does Tyler get this stuff?  I do business in Singapore and they will do business with anyone for anything with no restrictions. But if the transactions does not circle back to the S$, US$ or the Swisse it is down graded as just a means to the ultimate deal.  RMB is less a currency and more a political tool for running an economy located in China, but controlled by about 10% of the total population living in China.  Want to know where the bomb is?  China.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:31 | 4248209 headhunt
headhunt's picture

The point is the world is quickly losing faith in the US dollar.

No country can continue to stack printed paper without consequence.

maybe not china but something will fill the void and it will happen quickly.

Gravity has no loyalty.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:09 | 4248064 robochess
robochess's picture

In the meantime, trade what you see. Anticipating and positioning for whatever is a loser's game. If in fact things blow up, hopefully, you're liquid enough to move quickly. As the 2008-2009 period shows once fire sales start it's quite okay to miss the first few days... there will be more, there will be blood in the streets enough for all you Rothschilds out there.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:16 | 4248070 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

LOL...But how safe is the renminbi?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 11:28 | 4248131 hootowl
hootowl's picture

It is already being undermined by wildcat Chinese shadow banking.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:23 | 4248075 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

"Duh. Same thing. People will look back in the future and wonder why they didn’t see the dollar collapse coming… why they didn’t recognize that it was a bad idea for the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world to simultaneously control the global reserve currency…"

Well duh! The professionals that managed us into a collapse were surely aware of the consequences of their financial strategies. Educations from the finest universities, careers cultivated in the largest of connected firms, motivated by the spyglass on the history of white collar theft, connected at the highest levels of government by selected and well lubricated lobbyists, these people are skilled in the execution of what they undertook, what they wrought upon the foolishly trusting unwary.

They are not fools, they planned the collapse and present those that yet drink their kool-aid with attempted plausible deny-ability. History will look back to see, we ARE the greater fools. These noble ones have proven once again that theft at the highest levels not only pays well, but goes ignored, unpunished and eventually praised by historical revisionists

Nothing to see here folks, move along.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 10:46 | 4248097 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If the Chinese are so fucking smart, why weren't they buying gold in 2000 or before?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:12 | 4248177 ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I thought they are really smart until I find out they are buying properties in Detroit.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:50 | 4248244 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Pennies on the dollar.

If you have no place to hide your money from government as Chinese nouveau rich, Detroit looks great.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 12:46 | 4248239 brokenspoke
brokenspoke's picture

The Brooklyn Bridge and the Grand Canyon would make an excellent Real Estate investment for China.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 13:14 | 4248310 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Yellen will increase printing, not decrease.

It will be nice to see the fear in the Federal Reserve's eyes when there is a run on the US dollar. Once started they won't be able to stop it.

The best way for Russia and China to win over the US is to help the US Federal Reserve trigger an all out collapse of the US dollar, causing riots and discontent in the 99% of the population.

Where the 90% hate and want revenge on the 1%. When they have nothing to loose they will loose it.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 13:37 | 4248356 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

boy you people are stupid do you know how much money is spent & illegal activity is done to devalue the dollar without which the dollar would take off & by the way morons the chinese are upset about the rise in their currency not about the dollar's decline

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:48 | 4249491 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Abe, can you ask france or german whether they like another 'merry christmas' near Moscow?

If you don't learn from history, history will bury you (all). Just saying.

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