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Is The Perfect Storm Coming For Gold?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Due to western central bank price manipulation, the mining sector is in critical condition, the supply line is all but halted, and the physical supply is being swallowed up by Asia. The last shoe to drop is for major mining companies to start closing down production at major mines. Though this would be perceived as the end for gold, speculators will be happy to know that this would be the beginning of the biggest Fed induced bubble in history! But unlike previous Fed bubbles where they support the price increase, the gold bubble will be a result of western central planners mis-managing the gold price for the past 3 decades and finally losing control. As Peak Resources explains in the brief clip, the perfect storm is coming for gold...

 

 

Via Peak Resources,

Friday October 11th, gold trading was shut down for 10 seconds according to the CME.

Why, because someone sold 2 million ounces of gold at one time. Who does this? Who sells nearly 2 and half percent of annual gold production in a single minute? The gold valued at over $2.5 billion could not have been sold by a small trader, and certainly not the smart money, institutional investors know that you don't exit a large trade like this...

So who could it be? Try the dumb money, The Western Central Banks.

As noted by organizations like GATA, TF Metals Report, ZeroHedge, and Shtfplan, gold manipulation is out in the open. Friday October 11th is just one of the daily examples.

With the western central banks suppressing the price, the eastern central banks have been happy buyers.

However, PeakResources.org believes this gold price suppression scheme is nearing its end.

With the Federal Reserve on a fiat currency suicide mission with QE forever, and the U.S. federal government bankrupt, the days of dollar supremacy are in its last days.

For gold though, the central banks have really screwed themselves.

At a price of $1,250, gold mining companies can no longer make a profit. Recent studies show their all in cash cost anywhere from $1,400 to as high as $1,700. Liquid fuels, human energy, and new exploration are costly in the mining process, so it is unlikely these costs can be cut to accommodate the low gold price.

Since gold's peak in 2011, the TSX Venture exchange, home to the worlds gold exploration companies, is down more than 59%

The gold juniors index, the GDXJ, is down 83%

And the large cap gold companies, despite seeing a 400% increase in the price of gold over the past 12 years, are trading at lower valuations then they did even 20 years ago.

As noted in our video Peak Gold, no major gold discoveries have been found in more than 10 years! Gold production as a whole has plateaued.

Remember, all mines have a limited supply of gold, at some point in time they either deplete themselves or become uneconomical. Uneconomical meaning companies can't mine for profit, which is exactly the case for nearly all gold mines today!

Consider a very famous gold mining region, South Africa

In 1971 South Africa produced 47.5 million ounces of gold, accounting for 68% of global mine production.

In 2011, South Africa accounted for only 7% of gold production with about 8 million ounces of mine production.

Despite all the technological advances and billions in exploration and development, South African gold production is down 82%.

South Africa isn't an anomaly either, here in the U.S. production in the past 20 years is down 30%.

Current discoveries are small, in remote areas, and are lower grade deposits.

PeakResources.org recently attended a gold mining event in London, what we learned was that exploration budgets were being slashed! No development, no exploration, and a scaling back of projects.

What this all leads to is a price spike in gold, just as gold rose rose from $35 to $850 in the 70s, The Dow Jones from 2,000 to 11,000 in the 1990, and Bitcoin from a penny to $1,200 more recently, so to can gold have a parabolic spike.

The perfect storm is coming for gold...

Due to western central bank price manipulation the mining sector is in critical condition, the supply line is all but halted, and the physical supply is being swallowed up by Asia.

The last shoe to drop is for major mining companies to start closing down production at major mines. Though this would be perceived as the end for gold, speculators will be happy to know that this would be the beginning of the biggest Fed induced bubble in history! But unlike previous Fed bubbles where they support the price increase, the gold bubble will be a result of western central planners mis-managing the gold price for the past 3 decades and finally losing control.

With fiat currency being pumped into the system daily and the gold sector in shambles, the central banks are in for a big surprise because sooner or later supply and demand economics will crush the very people who are behind the devastation we have seen in the gold mining and precious metal industry.

 

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Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:36 | 4249469 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I would guess that a Perfect Storm will come, and we may not like it!  Even those of us who have gold.

Those without gold will like the Perfect Storm even less.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:51 | 4249494 knukles
knukles's picture

Sounds like the good old fashioned central planning economy management program methodology.
The price is too high
So it's held artificially low
Somebody buys up all the output
The profit on new production is naught, so no more is made
And voila!
They have the cheapest priced commodity in the world accompanied by no supply.

Economics a la neo Keynesian control freaks.
I

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:53 | 4249499 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Central planners all own gold themselves and many including Timma and Benna store it in Swiss storage accounts......Look for the Swiss to keep gold VERY safe for those storing it there thanks to our Central Planners........of course this is only speculation on my part......

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:17 | 4249526 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

With any real store of wealth, it's safety depends on only two points of leverage:

1.  How well you hide it (the preferred and most logical method for your average Joe, like you and me, who hold comparatively small amounts).

2.  The power you have to fend off those who think they might steal it with impunity (how the big boys play the game).

What works for a well connected senior governmental official might not work so well for you, even if your store of wealth is located in the same place, overseen by the same people.  Ref: Cyprus bail-ins and who got advanced word to get their money out of harms way beforehand.

 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:35 | 4249574 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Yes.....T and B are small fries and even some bigger players store their gold in Swiss accts......but the real power holds their gold themselves with their "own" protection for it..........silver is nice to own for small fries because your average thief doesn't want to work to carry several hundred pounds of silver even if they "get the info out of you" and of course they can if you aren't prepared......

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:47 | 4249703 fonestar
fonestar's picture

It would be nice to see gold rally, even if only so the gold bugs can stop acting so god damned butt-hurt over other items stealing the show.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:25 | 4249746 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

I'll ask again.

Miners are the first step in the supply chain. If they raise their price, everyone downline falls in step, no?

Gold was being bought up all the way down to $1200.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:38 | 4249817 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

miners dont set the price.

sadly, the comex sets the price.

if the comex says $1250 and the miners say, our cost is $1350, we won't sell below $1350, then guess what? the miners won't sell any gold until the comex price rises back above $1350.

i have heard that miners are slowing down production and not opening new mines due to the very low PM prices right now, which makes sense - it is one way that the invisible hand communicates to the market that the price is too low, drying up supply and forcing prices to rise.

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:40 | 4249915 Manthong
Manthong's picture

heh heh.. sooner or later that old "supply and demand" thing will kick in. it always does, and..

"the Swiss to keep gold VERY safe "

um, like account information and the independence of the CHF?

I'll just keep my faith in the cheese and the chocolate.

..but damn them.. a sunny spring morning on the lakeside in Montreux is worth a pile of gold.

..and WTF.. F.U. troll.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:34 | 4249993 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Surf & turf cheesecake.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:26 | 4250003 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

What ever happens just don't yell......rat farts.

 

This much I know.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzYZOr8boh0

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:35 | 4249926 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

that would make perfectly sense

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:07 | 4252136 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

That's the tail wagging the dog.

Miners need to say well, we won't SELL (to you) until the price is $1500.

China will buy.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:03 | 4249943 CHX
CHX's picture

as long as others sell at 1200, miners won't sell anything at 1300. but they should hold back from selling at these levels (what sprott has suggested in an oppen letter 1 or 2 years ago). only few have heeded his call. miners right now are crawling thru 7 hells, and the survivors will see light again, eventually.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 14:57 | 4251182 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

For gold, the mines are not the supply chain. Stockpiled gold is the supply chain.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:45 | 4249593 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Gold stored at a bank is at risk, including allocated gold, and including Swiss banks:

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/07/beware-allocated-gold-may-not-rea...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:25 | 4249805 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

No way in Hades the CB's will let a gold shortage just happen. They'll either start a war or try to divert it for their purposes. Don't expect this to just happen without some major event first.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:43 | 4254020 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

so, what you are saying is that the .fed is going to put all of the US gold reserves on an aircraft carrier, send it to China or the Persian Gulf...and let someone use it for target practice? interesting...maybe I should use a simliar plan for my PMs....

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:33 | 4249924 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

if we like your gold, we will keep it

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:42 | 4249932 aleph0
aleph0's picture

Switzerland ?
You mean the BIS probably.
AFAIK, they have a contract with Switzerland that makes the Vatican cringe with envy

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:59 | 4249508 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"As noted in our video Peak Gold, no major gold discoveries have been found in more than 10 years! Gold production as a whole has plateaued."

They should try fracking.  I hear it fixes everything when it comes to creating additional supply.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:04 | 4249517 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

25,000 B.C. - gold is valuable...

.

2013 A.D. - nothing has changed.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:29 | 4249808 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

The earliest recorded history known is about 5,000 years ago.

There is no written history from 25,000 B.C.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 03:37 | 4249856 Demonoid
Demonoid's picture

You apparently haven't seen the caves at Lascaux.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:27 | 4249889 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

true enough but from them one would get spears and animals valuable but not gold.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 16:55 | 4251626 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Written form of history is not 25,000 years old. Artistic renditions of animals and nature are not the same.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:36 | 4249927 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

did he say something about written history?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 16:51 | 4251636 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

If there is no written history, there is no verifiable way to prove that statement concerning the value of gold at that time.

Personal bias and guess-work conjecture are not evidences of fact. They are only statements of bias and conjecture.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 09:46 | 4362293 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

what would make you think if someone already found gold artifacts aged 35k b.c?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:28 | 4249555 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Fracking will eventually make oil cheaper than clean water.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:41 | 4249582 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the ones that drink blood do not care

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:00 | 4249629 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Of course, after all the fracking there will be no clean water left.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:29 | 4249890 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

that was smurf's point, imo.  the down arrow discrepancy has a variety of interpretations.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:44 | 4250057 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Clever little trick. Fracking will pollute the drinking water so it will become quite the valuable commodity. When Exxon buys a water company, I am packing up and leaving this festering sore.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:54 | 4249502 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

As I told a friend recently: "Yup, you can't eat gold/silver, but you sure have a better chance of eating."

"Guillotines are not weapons, they're a solution."

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:16 | 4249739 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

It's time for a few facts:

Multiple sources say that in all of history only 174,100 tons of gold have been mined. That amounts to 5,077,916,551 troy ounces. Sure, this could be off by a bit but that's probably close. We can assume that some of that is at the bottom of the sea. Roughly 50% is used for jewelry, 40% for investments (ETF's, etc.) and 10% for industrial uses. Even if 100% of the gold ever mined was available for monetary purposes that would amount to only .71 troy ounces for every man, women and child on the planet that is currently inhabited by 7.131 billion people. In other words, gold is indeed a scarce commodity. And given the fact that the fed and uncle sam as well as every other central bank in the world have been creating fiat for decades the true value of gold should be in the tens of thousands of dollars an ounce. At some point in time the charade will end, fiat will implode and the central bankers won't be able to artificially control the price of gold. That will be an interesting time.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:26 | 4249918 the tower
the tower's picture

BS

Why would anyone pay tens of thousands of dollars for an ounce of gold? An IF then it would only be because by that time the dollar is worthless. 

Gold is losing its value because it's no longer relevant. The price of an article is not determined by scarcity, but by how much people NEED it. Who needs gold, and for what?

The poor sheep in Asia are still stuck in an old world model, that's why they buy gold. Ditto the gold bugs.

Investing is about putting your money into something that people will NEED more in the future. So, gold is out, Apple is out, Facebook is out. Water is in, energy is in. Fill in the blanks.

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:40 | 4249930 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

i think you missed the part where all our little tech stuffs need gold and various precious metals to run.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:54 | 4249970 the tower
the tower's picture

Nah, much better - and cheaper - alternatives are being developed. Gold has no place in future tech.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:07 | 4250024 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

I´m supposed to have confidence in a dollar that is being created out of thin air to the tune of $85 billlion per month (not to mention all the currency being created by fractional reserve banking)??  Perhaps you are not aware that every single fiat currency that ever existed in the history of the human race has gone to zero. 

I invest in  hard assets, which include physical gold and silver, because western governments are tens of trillions in debt and cannot pay it back, and on top of that, the banksters have created a $1 quadrillion+ derivatives nightmare that is eventually going to explode. When it does, paper will vaporize and the Great Reset begins.  Hard assets will help ease the pain during the transition to a new system....which will probably be centered on China since they will declare the yuan as the new reserve currency  backed by gold.

Good luck if you believe fiat will save you.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:34 | 4250049 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I upped you for the avatar, but it gave ya 2.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 10:14 | 4250161 the tower
the tower's picture

"Perhaps you are not aware that every single fiat currency that ever existed in the history of the human race has gone to zero..."

This is the point, as the name of the game is making profit and maintaining control, so a new currency will be another fiat currency. TBTB are not interested in a stable currency.

 


Mon, 12/16/2013 - 12:57 | 4250735 All_Your_Base
All_Your_Base's picture

@the tower

You poo-poo gold as an investment. What about gold as insurance?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 13:22 | 4250803 the tower
the tower's picture

Insurance, sure. Like art, and diamonds. Spend 1 million on a Van Gogh now, and expect to get 100.000 back later (after the dust has settled). The key is to not lose ALL, but you can forget about getting that 1 million back. 100.000 is a good deal though.

During a real breakdown of society (IF there is going to be one when the big reset comes, and IF the reset comes) gold won't be of much help. What is valuable at that point is food, practical things like tools and matches, and even toilet paper will score a nice price (price being other stuff as it will be mostly barter).

So, use gold as an insurance if you can afford to lose up to 90% of it's value (that is if you're rich). Otherwise, buy a house to live in, or improve your current house. It will be a much better insurance, and an OK investment to boot.

Have some fun with the rest of your cash, life is short.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 09:55 | 4250129 superflex
superflex's picture

Oh really,

Do tell us what is being developed to replace the unique electrical and chemical properties of gold and silver, and what that cost of production is?  

I hear Unicorn farts will power my car in 10 years.  Does that mean crude oil prices will fall?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 10:25 | 4250177 the tower
the tower's picture

http://news.softpedia.com/news/New-Alloy-to-Replace-Precious-Metals-in-Electronics-160909.shtml

This research has managed to improve contact resistance up to one-million-fold that of pure base metals, allowing base metal contacts to be prepared with contact properties near those of pure gold.

The research was funded by a grant from the US Army Research Office, and it appeared online in the October 12th issue of the journal Applied Physics Letters.

There's many articles to be found on the subject, lots of research taking place and some viable alternatives have been found. Juat like diamonds, industry doesn't need the real thing.

Also, very little gold is used in electronics to begin with.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:54 | 4250451 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Yeah tower and quantum computing is right around the corner too but it doesn't mean traditional computers will disappear.

Have they learned to replace the solar, medical, and healing qualities of Silver with their electron/polaron hopping or is that in another vague article?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 12:45 | 4250681 the tower
the tower's picture

Nothing vague about that article. Do some research, there's a lot going on at the moment with respect to how our gadgets are going to be built in the very near future (the next 5 years).

Nothing justifies absurd gold prices in relation to tech - or silver for that matter - since the quantities used are very low to begin with, and being replaced with cheaper materials as we speak.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 09:39 | 4250110 unrulian
unrulian's picture

You miss the point...Gov's need a currency to function and when the $ collapses they will create a new one and it will have to be backed by something as people will not have faith in fiat after the collapse....PM's won't be much help to anyone until a gold backed currency is established; that's when the gold bugs and asia will do fine (if it isn't taken before hand)

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 10:17 | 4250167 the tower
the tower's picture

You miss the point, the name of the game is making profit and maintaining control, so a new currency will be another fiat currency. TBTB are not interested in a stable currency.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:54 | 4250434 XitSam
XitSam's picture

"The people" don't understand a currency backed by a commodity1. When fiat collapses they will trust the government (again!) and get a new fiat "guaranteed to be stable.  Trust us this time, those nasty speculators drove our money into the ground and they will be punished.  Also punished will be gold and silver bugs for spreading lies, there must be no competition with the new, improved, safe money."

What they will lose faith in, is the fiat that failed. They wii not understand that the lesson applies to all fiat.

1 They may have at one time, but several generations of public school have erased that.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 12:39 | 4250661 the tower
the tower's picture

Hear hear! Glad to see there are still some people who have an open mind.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 18:02 | 4251931 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

Hmmmmmm...

 

The Tower's cocky and reckless philosophy - or - 5,000 years of proven recorded history.

 

I'll take the latter.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 05:30 | 4253327 the tower
the tower's picture

During those "5,000 years of proven recorded history" gold was all there was... Times have changed.

Gold is a hype, it's an internet meme, created by those that are seeking profit RIGHT NOW. 

Gold is worthless, it's a piece of metal. It has less and less real-world applications. The only value that is left is its bling factor, for people with bad taste.

Think about it: who is going to buy your gold after the dust settles? Who is looking for gold after a crash? How are you going to convert that piece of metal into currency? Might as well buy Bitcoin.

Real estate - land, buildings, minerals, water - are your real insurance. Also jewellery, art, antiques, wines, etc. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:01 | 4254480 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

Gold is real money, sir.  Therefore, it will ALWAYS be valuable as such.  You can't trade your buildings for water... there will always be a need for an honest medium of exchange.  Gold has that 5,000 year proven track record as the basis for this.

 

Oh, and since it's so worthless, please send me your scraps of it.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 06:38 | 4256404 the tower
the tower's picture

Since it's worthless I don't have any gold.

I cannot pay anywhere with gold. To buy stuff in the real world you need money, the fiat kind. The only way to make money - money that is accepted in actual shops, to buy actual things - is to work and make a profit. That is how I make money, out of nothing. 

It's called running a business, and it's what propelled us to our standard of living. People investing in people and working hard.

Not some people holding some scraps of metal hoping for better days.

The plastic on an iPhone is worth 10x more than your precious gold. Because people choose to pay for it. Because they WANT it. It's called running a business.

Gold as an insurance. Sure. Just be prepared to lose most of the value. That's also written in your 5000 years of written history.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:52 | 4259094 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

Obviously, there will be no meeting of the minds here.  So be it.

 

But, I must ask where you get the idea that gold will "lose most of it's value"?  More than any other commodity on earth since the beginning of recorded history, I cannot think of anything that has been more stable in its tradable rate of exchange.  (You must overlook the recent criminal shenanigans of the cretins who now manipulate its price.  This will soon end badly.)

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:01 | 4249972 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

At some point those large buyers/ accumulators of Gold ( China , Russia etc ) are going to need the value of their holdings to rise .  The timing will co-incide with a huge $ depreciation and loss of world currency status . The Fed are fighting this very occurence vigorously . And physical delivery of all the shorters must eventually take place . 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:36 | 4249470 Unpopular Truth
Unpopular Truth's picture

Good info; old article

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:43 | 4249589 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I don't even bother to read these articles anymore. I could just go to KWN or SilverDocs if I wanted smoke blown up my ass. 

I'll believe it when I wake up one morning and gold and silver have tripled in price and thats when I go buy a truckload of food and ammo

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:28 | 4249682 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Mr Pink, I dont know who you are but I sure wish you would post here more often!!

~~~

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:38 | 4249760 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Mr Pink is old school ZH. It's good to see him back.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:56 | 4249779 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Thanks, but judging by all the downvotes not everyone is happy to see me.

I've been on ZH everyday (where else would I get my news?) but have just been lurking. 

Sometimes I think I get a little burned out from all the collapse talk. As far as gold and silver, I've been buying more. Why? Good question

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:40 | 4249820 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Never hurts to tell the truth.   Your opinion is a breath of fresh air -- and I could sure use one about now.

As for "why", it's the sane thing to do for those who can see past the trees.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 03:38 | 4249855 AUD
AUD's picture

Because gold is the standard of quality.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:00 | 4249941 globozart
globozart's picture

I would appreciate more talk on how to make money in this environment, and less complaining. We know they manipulate. Get over it, use the system and be prepared.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:00 | 4249973 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

@globozart

We all wish someone had a magic hat with million dollar answers.
but it is not going to happen. Want a millón bucks + ¿? .Invest and i say invest in miners 50k a year for the next ten years. I'll give you three. SVM,PAAS,NEM.

Now don't you go complaining on me in ten years,, with a "wish i had."..

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 09:55 | 4250127 globozart
globozart's picture

thanks for the recommendation. I own two of them already. Nothing but pain up until now, but we will see. I got some other usefull hints here, which I am greatfull about. The Anit-Stolper is one that brought presents ...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:25 | 4250345 Wen_Dat
Wen_Dat's picture

I don't invest in the market, but I hear BTFATH works...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:55 | 4250065 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

By then it will be too late for food or ammo.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 09:41 | 4250113 unrulian
unrulian's picture

i'm afraid at that point there won't be any chairs left...good luck

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:39 | 4249475 stant
stant's picture

wont be backing my truck up untill after april. call me crazy. down side isnt done but all most

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:05 | 4249520 bilbert
bilbert's picture

I don't know about that - I was shocked as shit this month, when the Gold market locked up for ten seconds on an UP move.............

My gut tells me the next move up in PM's will be fast and disorderly - nothing like 2010-2011.

 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:07 | 4249534 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"If you want your Perfect Storm, you can have your Perfect Storm."

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:59 | 4249974 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

give gobozart your e mail.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:40 | 4249478 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Yes, no, maybe?...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:43 | 4249480 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

In terms of 'skating to where the puck is going, not where it currently is' and the fact that the BIS and its minion banks see this as well, I'd be interested in hearing thoughts on what the next moves possibly could be by them to kick the can a bit more. There's always another rabbit, or so it seems.

I don't believe the ending is as easy as this video might suggest, as 'horcruxes' (i.e. the fiat monetary system) don't go quietly into the good night when they are fighting for their lives.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:46 | 4249488 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

China owns alles.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:56 | 4249492 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

As ZH'ers like to say, the perfect storm already came and it capsized my boat full of gold.  Damn storms.  And more on topic, I've been hearing this for a long time and I've parked a lot of my net in gold/silver and other PMs, but I am coming around to the idea that this isn't going to happen quickly.   With what little dry powder I have these days I buy dips and wait.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:07 | 4249533 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

any article that hangs it's hat on a guy named Turd and the rally in bitcoin to validate a massive rally coming in gold is seriously pathetic.

These mining companies have been more than complicit in this scam. if they go bust they deserve it.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:57 | 4249620 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I'm with ya fonz. This sound like something king world news would post. "Tomorrow gold is going parabolic". And ya the miners are complicient, I agree there. If a decent number of them said "enough" they probably could put an end to this. I understand that gold/silver is very undervalued with all this overpriced paper floating around, but these kinds of articles are tiresome. One day these articles will be right. And, in other news, some day this world is gonna end.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:40 | 4249999 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Check please.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:38 | 4249995 negative rates
negative rates's picture

They can't really go bust, it's an economical thingy. Sort o like the lost war on drugs, if they knew what they were doing after they legalized it, the prices would come down.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:07 | 4249648 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Wait for fucking what. Owning the precious metal is the end point for christs sake. We are obsessed, OBSESSED with the paper price. How many dick heads on this forum are going to wait until gold goes parabolic and then AT THE WORST TIME IN HISTORY TO DO SO, convert the gold back to paper for the paper to become worthless. 

You can thank me later with an ounce for securing your financial freedom.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:53 | 4250067 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Already knew that. Nobody will convert thier Gold for Valueless Paper...unless they are total morons.

 

The POG can fall to ZERO. I will not sell.

 

What is hillarious is that there are 179,000 Metric Tons of Gold. The USA supposedly has 8000 Metric Tons of that as the largest institutional owner.

 

Most of the Gold is Privately Held. Nobody sells the Physical on these Manufactured Price Declines. What they do not understand is that the owners of the Physical Gold are wealthy enough not to concern themselves with price.

 

Price Declines do not give the wealthy owners an incentive to sell Gold.

 

Conversely, and contrary to plan, it gives incentive for the Wealthy to accumulate MORE GOLD. The Wealthy only consider selling when they can GARNER A GAIN. Why enter a position to lose? Selling into a decline guarantees a LOSS.

 

Do as the wealthy do.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:18 | 4250325 Pesky Labrador
Pesky Labrador's picture

I would cash a percentage out for fiat to pay off a few bills. Keeping the rest of it for the currency reset coming after the crash.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:51 | 4249493 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-12/gorgon-gas-project-cost-blowout/51... i can do a lot more than put a man on the moon for 54 billion. It ain't like CVX's stock price has been impaired either...so no...i'm not worried about the price of gold here. I am worried about this though: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh44QPT1mPE 30 million is big time on Youtube. Rumor of me is 40 million actually...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:53 | 4249501 Crash N. Burn
Crash N. Burn's picture

 Old info that doesn't deal with the crux of the problem in the (among many) metals sector, to wit:

"As the One Bank plays its game of precious metals whack-a-mole; each time it “solves one problem” with its financial sledge-hammer, it creates a new one. At the same time; we will never will be free of this eternal “plague” in precious metals markets until we rid ourselves of this Financial Plague entirely.

With our governments and (supposed) regulators wholly corrupt – bought-off with a tiny portion of the One Bank’s annual mountains of free money – there is no hope of the current financial (or political) System ever being redeemed or legitimized as long as the One Bank exists.

At present, as precious metals investors; our best hope is that some sort of Decoupling will occur in the precious metals sector. Markets would divide into the (totally fraudulent) “paper bullion” markets, where practically no real metal would ever trade; and (what would most-likely be) illegal Blackmarkets for bullion.

With our governments now mere “stooges” for this Crime Syndicate; in our Matrix-reality, we would become the criminals – through doing nothing more protecting ourselves by exchanging our fraudulent (and soon worthless) paper currencies for the world’s oldest Safe Havens.

We can protect ourselves, somewhat, individually, by accumulating gold and/or silver, and (simultaneously) ridding ourselves of the One Bank’s corrupt paper. If we’re driven out of gold; it can only be with the consequence of driving us into silver (and vice versa). But collectively; we will never be anything but “moles” dodging a sledge-hammer until the One Bank ceases to exist."

Gold-Starved Indians Still Soaking-Up Silver

Kind of sums it up nicely, doesn't it?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 22:57 | 4249503 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

What if it is the cost of production and energy in mining that collapses, as opposed to wonderously exploding market prices? HA HA, just kidding, though it never hurts to "think different". How likely is a collapse of costs?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:00 | 4249510 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

What absolute BS.

Look who the author cites:  GATA, TF, ZH and SHTF.

As others so often say here  - bwahahahahahha

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:05 | 4249525 Tinky
Tinky's picture

There's a certain poetic symmetry between your screen name and the 'substance' of your post.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:03 | 4249718 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

So exactly who are your experts? Do you have an alternative, credible source or are you just an asshole?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:45 | 4250002 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Red eyes at mornin, sailor take warning

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:04 | 4249516 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

As the old saying goes... "The time to fix the roof is when the sun is shining".  So, take heed and build your shelter now before the Perfect Storm hits.  Gold and silver are your brick and mortar.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:09 | 4249528 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

The author sounds panicky.

We have a long way to go.
The endgame may well have nothing to do with gold/silver at all...

Buy some, for insurance.

And then focus on points of Control.
The ones that made you go buy some insurance.

 

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:14 | 4249541 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i don't know about panicky. but it's easy to get a buch of page hits and comments when you have that title and your stew of usual suspect sources as some sort of proof that something has to happen. Typical crap. all it needs is a top 30 list.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:47 | 4249600 kito
kito's picture

This author used shtfplan.com as a source when discussing the intricacies of gold. Need we say more?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:13 | 4249540 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

I smell a fresh steaming turd...  It was not so long ago we had the "Brown Bottom" in gold when that corrupt maggot sold much of England's gold at less than $300/oz.  If the miners today can't stay in business with $1250 gold, WTF were they doing with gold at $300?!!?!?  (And $4 silver)  No, inflation is a cute but foolish answer.  Sure, I think at some point, when the dollar actually collapses, gold will run again... but it will follow an impressive deflationary collapse...  gold to $850?  THEN... is the time to load the boat, barring another executive order pulled from a treasonous colon.  GATA, A Rothschild puppet, is not credible.

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:29 | 4249563 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

I agree with ya! All these mines were just fine 5 years ago with gold sub $800 and silver at $11. Now, they can't survive with gold at $1200 and silver at $19? We all know gas prices & employee wages haven't changed much since!

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:49 | 4249601 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

When is the last time Turd and his "inside source" have been right about anything?

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:53 | 4249611 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

The mines are running low on gold (read the article). Same costs and less gold to sell means a decreasing profit. 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:01 | 4249783 W74
W74's picture

Agreed.  The question becomes: what are their FIXED operating costs versus their Variable operating costs?  And even with a mine shut down that equipment can't just shit there.  You either have to use it or move it.  Then there's taxes and/or leases to pay for the site.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:56 | 4250462 akarc
akarc's picture

"it's simple. 10+ years ago the ore grades mined were WAY higher (~10-20 g/t, whereas the bulk mined today has ore grades of ~2 g/t if even that - the low hanging fruit have long been reaped)."

CHK gets it.

Also, chinese have beeen steadily moving into African economy. How many South American countries can you trust not to nationalize?  Can you trust what US will do re: gold? Silver demand will increase.

Canadian silver mines look appetizing to me. But then thats me and Im usually wrong so.......... 

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 20:09 | 4252294 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

is that /sarc?
If not... you know the line ... never go full retard.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:58 | 4249714 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

you don't get it..  they sell the gold at $300 to grab more money to spend before they inflate it away...  once it is inflated, they don't care if they buy the gold back at $2000

 

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:04 | 4249894 CHX
CHX's picture

Lovely (and others here in this thread) really do not get it. it's simple. 10+ years ago the ore grades mined were WAY higher (~10-20 g/t, whereas the bulk mined today has ore grades of ~2 g/t if even that - the low hanging fruit have long been reaped). Look at the oil/energy prices compared to 10 years ago, and you've got all you need to know why overall mined gold today has all-in-costs >> spot price of gold and silver. SRS ROCCO has been doing a splendid job of laying out the case why energy prices (peak CHEAP oil) and lower ore grades put a compelling floor to PMs, especially silver (~half of which is mined is consumed, whereas most gold ever mined is still in possession of people/institutions/CBs etc). When the scarcity of physical PMs will be percieved by the broader public, it will be too late for them to get metal any close to today's prices, but they may then chase it into bubble territory (where it is NOT now). Finally, any speculation on future price is somewhat irrelevant or missleading IMO. It's future purchasing power which matters, and physical metal will be an excellent store of value and purchasing power (though not the only ones). When/once gold (and by extension all PMs) is free (from fraudulent non-gold paper gold, which makes up >99% of all "gold transactions" and the current market place of gold), then we'll have a true fiat price discovery mechanism of real money. IMO the metals are cheap hear, and the miners a steal. Downside risk limited in extent and time. Good luck to all.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:07 | 4249976 new game
new game's picture

chx exc post-agree.  i also like the arguement that average person has not a pot to piss in. so irrelevant to most.

suppose the want to be rich and insurance types will buy and hold whilst the rest kill for scrapes. just stay away from the majority will be the real end game.  long sewn garments with well designed 1 oz pockets that velcro or zipper secure for running like a scared monkey...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:38 | 4249576 Kina
Kina's picture

Gold and Silver tracked M1 money supply all the while....until $1,900oz ...when TPTB went into panic mode and spent the following few years trying to destroy gold...only to thus give it over to Asia in bulk at huge discount prices.

 

Instead of paying $2,000+ an oz for gold Asia/China have been getting a 500-800 discount.

 

The ONLY reason gold isn't well beyond $2,000 oz is the massive continuous manipulation by TPTB. And even then they STILL can't kill it off. All they have done is wound the spring tighter and tighter....fuck knows when it will blow could be soon could be years...

 

but when it blows...you don't want to be in just fiat

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:53 | 4249617 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

These prices are a blessing. I was not fully awake in 2008. 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:34 | 4249960 grekko
grekko's picture

I think China threatened to dump its Treasuries and is in collusion with the Fed and TPTB.  They are slowly divesting US debt and turning it into gold/land/real estate/commodities, and at a real discount.  When you have the power to bring the US Economy to it's knees overnight, you have a lot of leverage.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:13 | 4249977 new game
new game's picture

history repeats only this tyme, no war, at least not yet...

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:41 | 4249586 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Problem facing Gold is crypto-currencies. Technology has obsolesced physical matter. Maybe you'll be able to sell it to an electronics manufacturer someday or perhaps a jeweler. It is long over for those golden years. Central Banks would like to be able to use it as a control device but Central Banks too are obsolete.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 03:23 | 4249847 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

 CryptoCurency is only temporary competition with pm's.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:12 | 4249912 Kina
Kina's picture

cryptocurrencies are no better than gold or fiat.

They are easy to control at the point of exchange as I have shown. eg in Australia any cash or coin transaction of $10,000 or more must be recorded and reproted to authorities re tax evasion, money laudering, terrist funding etc.. 

 

A very simple matter to include a crypto currency in this mix....by simply stating...... that every transaction $5,000 or over that is not by cheque, trade, credit etc... must be recorded and reported including identity. OR if they want to ban crypto currency transactions they could use this mechanism.

 

They can deal with bitcoin easily without even touching it... bitcoin would be relegated to a black market, or small denomination transactions.....

 

It is up to TPTB if they want to. In Australia they already do it for cash... and I can bet Bitcoin will be added to that legislation as well in time.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:46 | 4252241 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

quite the opposite:
atoms always trump electrons.
cryptocurrencies don't work where there are no grids. No phone, no power, no internet.
None.
We need real money working there & it must have an atomic nucleus to be money.

Gold is good for radiation shielding, teeth, electronics, cancer treatments, damn near anything you can think of.

Cryptocurrencies can do none of these things: they have no intrinsic value (physical usage of a non-monetary non-price purpose)

Sun, 12/15/2013 - 23:43 | 4249588 Seal
Seal's picture

ALL Bernanke cares about is turning the POS US "economy" over to Yellen with the numbers lined up. He could care less about the real economy. Same as ObombaCare - it was all about getting campaign contributions for O's '12 run from the "health care" industry.

Congress and Obomba could care less - they have their own Cadillac health plans paid for by ....... us taxpayers! 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:08 | 4249650 seek
seek's picture

There's a perfect storm, alright, and it's called the US dollar collapse.

They'll keep screwing the gold market until they can't -- and the time they can't is when the dollar isn't accepted.

I'm not thrilled with the prospects, but at this point in time I'm assuming my lake-bottom assets will only hold or decrease in value until such time as the USD is devalued or obliterated. That's not in the cards for 2014.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:35 | 4252211 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

2014 will easily see gold hit 2000. 2015 should see 3500/oz.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:15 | 4249656 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

We'll probably be seeing much more of So. Africa's gold production being taken off line during the next few months. Their deep mines will go off line and that should have an impact on the supply side of the demand equation. The 'demand' side of the equation is more of a question mark.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:28 | 4249677 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Here are two very well researched articles on the marginal and all-in cost for mining gold.  The last leg in the gold price bubble is set to disappoint gold investors with a much lower than expected peak, and an average outcome far lower than expectations of a mania in bullion.  The value is in the miners at this point.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/04/gold-correction-1970s-vs-today-miners-in-trouble/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1860791-the-cost-of-mining-gold-a-q3-2013-summary?source=yahoo

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:50 | 4249708 headless blogger
headless blogger's picture

One of the Ads showing up on this page from Google is for $700 Gold!!! Google is messing things up around the internet.

If people would just quit tampering with everthing, it would go so much better for the rest of us.  From Gold to the internet, just leave it alone! But they won't...too much temtation and motivation for profit (for the few).

There was a time not long ago you could do a search on the internet and get a wide assortment of results. Now, it is getting more limited. Someone said its because our search results are now based on all our other searches and surfing history based on Google calculations. But that can't be true, because my results are always coming up with mainstream media garbage that I never visit.

The moral of all of this is: you don't know what these people are doing behind closed doors. It is just massive speculation. We should be seeing massive inflation, Gold at $5K and silver at $250...but the pigs continue pulling bunnies out of hats and who knows what these psychopaths will do next. We cannot assume anything in these circumstances.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:33 | 4252205 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Try using better keywords.
My searches usually use 3 or more words & are precise.
I get no pop-ups ever.
firefox + noscript + adblock

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:56 | 4249710 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Someone sold 2 million ounces of gold at one time.
Who does this?
Who sells nearly 2 and half percent of annual gold production in a single minute?

The real question is who's not afraid to sell this block ?
My guess the people who own and run this planet, don't bet on them to lose.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:27 | 4249810 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Who bought it, would be equally interesting to know.... 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 00:55 | 4249711 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

I'm that niiha wit dat gold. Where DA gold at. Gimme DA gold. 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:07 | 4249725 boeing747
boeing747's picture

This is unofficial banning gold sales in us. Miners stop digging, distributors stop stocking, investors stop purchasing (risky asset) at such price. So if we need gold we have to import it from low-cost producers in s america or s africa.
Problems solved, who said ben is axxhole?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 01:19 | 4249740 AGORACOM
AGORACOM's picture

Gold will take one more hit - and it will be epic - in Q1 2014 ... which sets up the mother of all moves as miners shut down everything and the race for securing physical gold becomes a frenzy.

 

Regards,

George ... The Greek ... From Canada

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:22 | 4249773 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I repeat...the physical movement of gold has almost zero...zero..impact on the price of gold. Supply of 'gold' is nearly infinite (all a bank has to do is promise gold (ie unallocated) and THAT alone fulfills the need for gold for 95% or more of 'gold' buyers. As long as there is some physical moving and no one panics the paper 'gold' will keep the market happy.

It does not matter if the mines close, you don't to mine paper 'gold'. It does not matter if physical is moving to China. The derivative market sets the price and the FOREX gold market is far larger than the Comex which in turn is far larger than the true physical gold market. h/t fofoa

As long as these conditions exist the price of 'gold' is likely to languish. When the first truly important entity can't get physical....then things will happen. Right now GLD still has 827 tons (down from 1350 in January). If there is a panic to get this physical it could be over tomorrow. At the current rate of depletion it could be another year. The question I have is how low can the GLD inventory go before someone truly important starts to notice?

http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/GLD_US_archive_EN.csv

Is the daily display of GLD figures posted at 5PM EST. Follow along...it is quite the sport.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:30 | 4249811 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Peak nightmare

 

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/10/23/rising-energy-costs-lead-to-recession-eventually-collapse/

 

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/12/06/diminishing-returns-energy-return-on-energy-invested-and-collapse/

 

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/10/14/two-views-of-our-current-economic-and-energy-crisis/

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:42 | 4249823 joego1
joego1's picture

I think the planet has enough energy to poison itself quite nicely at the moment.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 02:55 | 4249829 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Gold will bottom when everyone has thrown in the towel and points to much lower lows, when even the gold promoters start talking about shorting.  The more bearish people get, the closer we are to the turn.  When analysts start to call for $600 gold.  Not there yet...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 03:09 | 4249840 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I'm betting sub-1K$ before there is a slingshot effect back up.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:14 | 4249878 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

While I really hesitate to wade into this discussion, I'm going to because ZH has a tendency to become an echo chamber and try to run off contrarians such as Satoshi.  It pains me to defend someone like Satoshi, who is such an ass, so LET ME BE CLEAR that I am only defending his contrarian position on gold at this time.

I bought gold before it was popular....long before there was a ZH blog.  I bought gold during the housing bubble, when I was the only person in the world (as far as I knew) who could see the housing bubble developing and what was coming.  I read, I researched, I studied every night for hours (during a time when there was no Market Ticker or ZH).  I expanded my college economics studies (Austrian school, thank goodness) with current writings, and simply looked in my own "backyard" for real life evidence.  I paid attention to my common sense.

I knew that we would have a collapse.  I knew that the bubble was unsustainable.  I knew that we would have a major depression.  I also suspected that TPTB would not allow a depression to occur (history shows you this).  So I bought gold.  I bought it in the traditional sense as a HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION.

Now, inflation is the increase in the money supply.  Nobody understands this anymore.

It happened like this:

Interest rates go down

Credit (money supply) goes up

Dollar value goes down

Gold goes up

Okay, great time to own gold.  But any REAL investor should figure out an exit strategy, so I did that with my investments.  I sold my stocks and mutual funds before the crash of 2007.  I never stopped thinking of an exit strategy with the gold.  I couldn't quite figure it out, though.

Then it hit me one day.  An epiphany, really.  If interest rates can't go down anymore (and they were near zero), then credit/money supply can't go up anymore, then the dollar won't go down anymore, and gold can't go up anymore.  I had this epiphany when gold was at $1900, and I sold just under that.

Then interest rates started to go up, and gold started to fall.  

Interest rates can go down again, and that might make gold go up a little bit, but every investment (no matter how much you want to deny this) hits a ceiling, a limit of mathematics. 

Well anyway, this is not investment advice.  Just my analysis, which is never based on emotion.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:10 | 4249942 falak pema
falak pema's picture

conclusion : your are the perfect investor all on common sense. Buffet should invite you to his buffets.

Kudos and Dudos  AND Epiphanies! 

As we are into greek words you must understand the Kairos moment. 

Kairos - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So what next are you now buying vineyards or emeralds like the chinese?

PS : I have a question for you. You correctly identify, IMO, ONE source of inflation; aka the 1971 fiat pump and money spike. But there is another lever to inflation : its COST PUSH; when commodities become rarified or SPECIALISED labour is greatly in demand, aka economic bottleneck in supply curve. What say you? 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:02 | 4250022 new game
new game's picture

chiming in; climate based land, on top of land and what is under the land...

land water food via phys. holding

simplified

acres

well

garden

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 05:23 | 4253321 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

falak pema,

You are obviously making fun of me.  I try not to be offended by that, so I'll answer you.  I never said I was a perfect investor.  Far from it.  I've made some good decisions, and yes, I've been lucky, so I was just trying to add to the discussion here.

Kairos = Opportunity?  Yes, I agree.  But if you mean opportunistic in a evil sense, then no, that's not me.

LOL, I don't have a vineyard or emeralds. 

To answer your PS question:

I always define inflation as an increase in the money supply.  Always.  I do NOT define it as an increase in prices.  Money supply increase CAN lead to price increase, but it is not automatic.

You are saying (I think) that there is another aspect to inflation (which I think you mean price increases).  You are saying that supply and demand matter, too.  And you are absolutely right.

When commodities become scarce, that is a decrease in supply.  That has an impact on price, regardless of the money supply.

When specialized labor is in demand, that is an increase in demand.  That has an impact on price, regardless of the money supply.

These axioms of economics have been forgotten.  

ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL.

You can't analyze these things unless you understand that.

M = Money supply

D = Demand

S = Supply

I = Interest

P = Price

 

I listed price last because that's all anyone cares about, really.  Price is a function of those other things.....money supply, demand, supply of goods, and interest.  It is not hard to analyze if you know how to do it and you use the right terms.  

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 09:25 | 4250094 acjitsu
acjitsu's picture

Just one thing to add to your analysis.    See 1977-1982 time frame. Paul Volcker rasied rates, gold prices started to skyrocket.  So basically Gold will go up when interest rates rise until the rates pass the REAL rate of inflation, then gold will go back down as is what happened after 1980 gold peak.    

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 11:05 | 4250290 Tinky
Tinky's picture

What a coincidence – I bet on all nine winners at Aqueduct on Friday! And to confirm the veracity of my claim, I did fail to use the correct fifth-place finisher in the ninth race superfecta. However, it should be noted that I did hit the exacta, trifecta and late double.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 20:53 | 4252405 honestann
honestann's picture

Ain't that simple.  I'm not going to list all the other factors that influence PM prices, but at least you need to account for the different attitudes towards PMs by eastern central banks and eastern individuals (China, India, Taiwan, Singapore, etc) and western central banks and western individuals.

The western predators absolutely want to utterly and completely eliminate the last shred of any notion that "money" should be real, or have intrinsic value.  They really do want to create a world in which everything is fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy.  They wish to end up with a system in which they own everything, including all "regular folks".  In short, they expect their slaves to do whatever they say, no matter how insane.

The eastern predators absolutely know better.  They too want to be masters of their slave population, but the "fiction gig" is already taken, mastered, and pretty much monopolized by the westerners.  What the easterners know is... humans need and want real goods and goodies.  So they are playing the other side of this "real versus fiction" dynamic.

Sure the "real side" is a lot more work than just lying, cheating, defrauding and generally intimidating people, but... that's the game they are in a position to play.  And so they are.

Which means, they would be happy... if they could... to convert several trillion dollars of western bonds and other worthless paper into gold and silver --- if they could.

They can't, because buying that much in a year would blow the whole market to kingdom come, and they'd have to pay $25,000 per ounce, not $1200.  So they convert fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-notes into gold and silver as fast as they can without overwhelming the silver and gold manipulators.

The dynamic is clear, and so is the outcome.  The demand for actual possession of physical gold and silver will eventually consume every gram of available supply.  This is obvious and unavoidable --- at current prices.

The only question is... when will the western predators give up.  They will give up, not because they want to, but because they cannot produce endless quantities of physical.

Do you understand the following factoid?  If the Chinese converted all their fiat paper investments into gold at $1250 per ounce, they would own every gram of above ground gold on planet earth!  And they'd love to, and they'd do so... if only the paper manipulators would keep up their insanity until the Chinese actually had all the physical gold on earth.

Not gonna happen.

The fact is, gold and silver prices are going to move massively higher over the next 2 years.  The western predators might be able to manipulate the prices for one more year, but at that point, delivery defaults would overwhelm everything.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:16 | 4249886 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Looking at the Fed and bullion banks right now is the wrong conspiracy. There is a large speculative whale or whales in this market.  Will the Real Conspirators Please Stand Up? http://winteractionables.com/?p=7963

Bullion banks are very long gold: http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/3041/ztuz.png

Producers are long gold for the first time ever. http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/8937/vnbs.png 

Largest managed money spec short position ever. http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/8067/s748.png

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:53 | 4250012 fijisailor
fijisailor's picture

Translation:  Mom and dad's IRA and 401k about to lose big time.  What a surprise.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:33 | 4249892 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Who cares?

The fish are bleeding and dying. The polar bears are losing hair as the seals are dying off in record numbers. Children in japan are developing cysts in their thyroid glands. Who actually thinks the next mammalian up the ladder is not going to start dying off in rapid numbers also?

No wonder all those babylonian cia-insurance and big pharma companies want everyone paying for the future costs of dying from radiation poisoning. THAT, is what the commie-care is all about.

And dad darn! Why is the world of people so ding dang stupid??

Stupid is as stupid does, but is stupid so stupid that it is now too stupid to change stupid things?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHY00xN8HoI

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:31 | 4249922 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Would it not be preferable, over the next 20 years, to expect every resource be focused on a solution, that the people be told the truth, that we circle the wagons and try to ease the pain and suffering rather than what is unfolding?  You are right.  We have failed to heed the warning, cause and effect, while the reality TV shows stole our populations' attention.  What better way to die en masse than in societies who begin to act as if they are at a funeral and not a bar room, brawling or at a circus that never leaves town.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 08:07 | 4250026 new game
new game's picture

it is hard not to care, but somehow we must put the longer term to the side and IGNORE the results and just try to be happy today.

seems like higher IQ = less happiness...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 04:49 | 4249904 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Adam Hamilton: Contrarian Gold Stocks

  Adam Hamilton presents very good technical big picture view on the Gold Stocks relative valuations. With crowds chasing Bubbles and FED squeezed in the corner with rising Interest Rates Gold will be shining again soon. China is buying record amounts of Gold this year and other countries are joining this party. Yuan already has surpassed Euro and became the second currency by trading volume after US Dollar. US Dollar status of the Reserve Currency by choice is seriously challenged now with far reaching geopolitical implications.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/adam-hamilton-contrarian-gold-stocks...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:04 | 4249908 CHX
CHX's picture

Title is wrong IMO. Should read: "Are we in the eye of the perfect gold storm ?"

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:39 | 4249928 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture
Is The Perfect Storm Coming For Gold?

Probably. But it is getting a tad boring......And this crappy article says nothing new, and my eyes glazed over when I saw he is quoting the (now paywalled) TurdFerg as an authority.

Personally, I am BTFBTCD and trading those badboys and a few other cryptos. I have made easily over 1000% in the last month, most of that from 5 sensational (even though I do say so myslef) 48hr-72hr trades.

It's the wild west out there, but boy is it fun.

Cheers!

Fred.

P.S I also recently did 3 cracking btc trades buying on the ZH "Bitcoin Crashes!" tweets and selling them a day later. haha Cheers Tyler!! :)

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 05:47 | 4249935 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Mismanagement ALWAYS has as corollary regulation and confiscation. Its been done before.

Gold is the pimple on the Emperor's nose of Fiat hegemony.

The Oligarchy has burnt its boats. Draghi said it best : We will do WHATEVER it takes.

Now there is no going back. These conquistadors of Fiat are doing what Omar Khayyam always predicited :

The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on...Nor all thy piety nor wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line...

Consequences; but not what ZH imagines. Its more complicated than that! 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 07:56 | 4250015 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

yes, it's more complicated than that, I agree. yet if one of the main contendents switches to gold, the ECB has the option of following suit

at the end, it's alway a question of balances, including those of trade, finance, etc.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 06:04 | 4249944 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Take a $10 bill

cut it into 4 1/4's would 4 seperate people give you $2.50 for one of those 1/4 notes?

 

Na

Do that with gold and silver..............no prob

 

That's all you need to know

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