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VIX Up & Stocks Up As 3rd Hindenburg Omen Appears

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While stocks clung to overnight ramp gains, tensions were clear under the surface. Managers sought protection as spot VIX trended higher (closing over 16%); JPY crosses were not buying into (or supporting) the equity bounce (off the S&P's 50DMA), credit markets remained unimpressed, Treasuries closed practically unchanged (30Y was worst +2bps), gold and silver were bid, and another Hindenburg was spotted. The previous two "clusters" of Hindenburg Omens produced meaningful corrections in the US equity market (albeit dips that were rapidly bought). While ominous in its wording, the features that cause an Omen are all about market confusion with highs, lows, advancers, decliners, and momentum all signaling opposing (and mixed) views. With this week's FOMC meeting likely to resolve in significant volatility one way or the other, it is perhaps not surprising that the 3rd H.O. has just been spotted.

 

S&P futures tested perfectly to their 50DMA overnight (making the biggest 4-day high to low drop in 5 months) before bouncing back handsomely...

 

The omens are clustering...

 

JPY carry was not buying it...

 

And VIX was bid - suggesting hedges were in demand...

 

Gold and silver were well bid after POMO ended...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Bosch
Bosch's picture

Oh the Hindenburg Omen.  *wanking motion* 

The 47th time must be the charm. 

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

"Vix" is German for wank...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

They are trying to put bubble gum clamps on a clusterfuck in heat like a wild horse.

Sure  patterns like hindyshit in the wind will appear. 

What is the validity of this fucking space appearance? 20%?

 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Four chan
Four chan's picture

Schmidenberg.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:06 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

The key problem is this indicator rests on the assumption that prices have meaning.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

3rd...

crying wolf?

me bad.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

To wank or not to wank.  That is the question. 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Peak Wanking, Faping and Schlicking!

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Let me just get out my ZH translator.........

.... yes I thought so, .... "third" actually means "fourteenth"...

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment FranSix
FranSix's picture

Hindeberg omen qualifiers in one simple chart:

http://scharts.co/1f43Xh0

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Thanks, clear as mud.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Here's why it's different this time.

1) ZH reports the Hindenberg

2) old kevin Henry at the fed reads ZH

3)K Henry takes decisive steps to overcome the hindenberg with unlimited funds of the NY Fed

BTFATH

"it's the same day everyday, what if their was no tomorrow"

Groundhog Day

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

I think a sympathy short squeeze sparked by HLF pushed the SP up today.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

A triple hindy?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Being Free
Being Free's picture

+1 for channeling Rodney Dangerfield and the "triple Lindy"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDMMYT3vkTk

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

An interesting side-note on the actual Hindenburg - it did make a number of trans-atlantic flights in 1936, however, it did not burn until its THIRD trans-atlantic flight of 1937... 

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Can you imagine riding across the Atlantic in that thing?  They should build a new one and make all of these bankers ride across the Atlantic to try it out.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

I wonder what it's effective EROEI was or it's cost per unit of value delivered?  Personally I think where this species got into long term trouble was when we went for the short term gain and left the rails and the sails, both of which are a pretty energy efficient way to travel.  The whole business model of rubber on the road and punching holes in the sky is somewhat inefficient in comparison.  "Who coulda knew???" about taking that track is one of the only valid "Who could have seen it coming" scenarios for me, and the rest of these shamans can't seem to see the obvious things coming.  But even so, the Amish like nailed it on those models and innovations long ago, where none of the rest did.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

vix screaming AH

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

"Oh, the humanity!"

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 21:32 | Link to Comment algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Yep, never seen that happen before. Go ahead and jump right in there.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

Trade off this and you'll go broke

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:39 | Link to Comment object_orient
object_orient's picture

I'm way ahead of you.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

I prefer the 43 day 10 hour geometric moving average myself, combined with a proprietary oscillator.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

oh, and don't forget the lube, please.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Should rename this the Wile E. Coyote Omen.  Catastropy rears its ugly head, and yet the stupid coyote always lives to try another day.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

+1 40 of them could show up.  Dont matta.  Because the more they show, the more the market climbs.  the omen, in my opinion, is really no longer relevant in a socially engineered market.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

The more Hindenburg sightings the higher this market goes.  So, even if you don't like your Hindenburg Omen, you should probably keep your Hindenburg Omen.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

vix,  isn't that a vapour rub.  i predict a slow, no volume 30 point climb up. just like anytime else in the past 4 years

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Wow. Every single message here is dismissing the Omen. That must indicate something?

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

could be a lot of us have lost money trying to short anything in this market. no matter the chart pattern, omens, quarterly reports, or anything else. 

 

there is no reality.

 

until there is.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Look Tyler, tell us on Fridays if there was NO hindenburg phenomonen for the week. Then and only then will I sell everything and buy gold. Otherwise I BTFD.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 00:28 | Link to Comment garypaul
garypaul's picture

+1000

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 19:13 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

My read on these omens is a stock dip is in the works that will be used to justify an extra measure of QE north of 85.

Mon, 12/16/2013 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Oh….man. Not the Hindenburg.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!