This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

2014 Will Move Us Closer To The End

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Originally posted at Monty Pelerin's World blog,

The fraud that has been the US government and its effects on the Potemkin economy should be obvious by now. Yet our politicians continue to pretend the economy is growing and recovering. It is not. It is in a death spiral that their interventions caused and continue to feed.

The presentation below is another one from Gordon T. Long. This one includes Charles Hugh Smith as his guest. Both are worthwhile listening to, especially in this presentation.

 

What is discussed is expectations for 2014. The problems that may surface this coming year have their roots decades before. Each problem results from prior government attempts to stop normal economic corrections. Each was designed to stimulate the economy to avoid the necessary adjustments. Their effectiveness short-term was politically acceptable and was achieved by distorting prices, interest rates and lending standards. The intent was to send false signals to economic actors, to encourage them to behave in ways that helped short-term results but were harmful long-term.

For years short-run corrections were avoided or mitigated by this falsifying of economic signals. The cost was to make the economy weaker and less efficient. It also was to burden the economy and its participants with record levels of debt. This economic debauchery produced immediate good feelings in the same manner that excessive drinking does. It makes you feel good during the binge, but the next day is hangover time.

The economy has been wasted. These short-term highs have place it in grave danger. John Maynard Keynes replied to objections to his short-term remedies with the statement that “in the long-run we are all dead.” Keynes is long dead. Perhaps he was thinking only in terms of his lifespan. The rest of us are facing the consequences of such irresponsible policy.

Whether enough of the negatives hit in 2014 to sink the country is doubtful but not impossible. The saddest part about what is happening is that there is no political will to even recognize the path that we are on. From a political standpoint, no one wants to admit we are in trouble. As a result, there are no attempts to remedy our economic and social spiral to ruin, (and probably no way) to reverse the march to collapse.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:32 | 4253805 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

....Happy New Year!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:41 | 4253837 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Idiot Maya chronologist, is mix up year to be late.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:58 | 4253876 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

In 2014, it will be entirely clear that:

 

US economy = FRAUD

Congress = FRAUD

The Fed = FRAUD

Obama = FRAUD

Economic "recovery" = FRAUD

Bubbles everywhere = REALITY

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:00 | 4253892 Xandrino
Xandrino's picture

That has been clear for over 50 years, and what has changed?

If you look the numbers this ponzi should have ended a long time ago.

War=destruction=rebuilding.

If there is a danger of a collapse, it will be WAR.

War is the driving factor in the US.

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:11 | 4253923 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"If there is a danger of a collapse, it will be WAR.

War is the driving factor in the US."

 

That's only because you let them game you.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:34 | 4253975 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Perhaps there is hope as we saw the American people make their position quite clear when Obama attempted to bull his way into Syria. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:46 | 4254022 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As long as people use the phrase "our politicians/government/etc" there is no hope of ANY solution.

The Beast will never die as long as people support its existence in their minds.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 15:20 | 4254679 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If that's your thesis, then syria is a terrible example...  that one just went to shit because youtube videos were the basis and the internet community had long since known the SAA wasn't responsible for the crime...  and the administration was forced to show its hand and had nothing...  (check to putin on that one).

If you're going for an example, I'd cite the gun control/confiscation/registration failures...  people got pissed the fuck off and the proposed laws died on the vine...  all of this despite a full out blitz from the MSM including getting a laundry list of celebrity assholes to come out and carry water for the administration (this means you jeremy renner, you fucking hypocritical twat).

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:45 | 4254987 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Good analogy. It was even more of a disaster than that for the gun control pukes. When the got the Colorado legislature to go along with their gun grabbing plans, 2 senators were recalled, and a 3rd quit to avoid being recalled. Plus 90% of the sherrifs (elected) are refusing to enforce the laws. Major fail that shows the people can indeed rise up against TBTP when motivated.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 13:49 | 4254448 CH1
CH1's picture

That has been clear for over 50 years, and what has changed?

The number of people who are seeing through the bullshit. And it is a big change.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 15:22 | 4254688 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

When we're finally incentivized to wake up, we wake up...  go figure.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:36 | 4253818 Truther
Truther's picture

Time to finalize preps.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:36 | 4253823 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

2015 is the year when shit *really* hits the fan.  This new budget "deal" they negotiated in Congress with the debt ceiling extend all the way until Aug/2015......when we go through this debt ceiling bullshit again JUST IN TIME FOR THE ELECTIONS.

The political whores will take this opportunity to suck off their banker pimps.

Add to my "financial crises happens around the end of presidental terms since end of Bretton Woods" theory, and 2015 could be a very scary year. 

2014 will be OK though (until Q4)

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:44 | 4253853 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

We will see about 2014. I'm not one to cry doom all the time, but these mid term elections could be interesting. I'd be a little surprised if we can make it another 2 years like this without a recession, which either is caused by, or causes a currency crisis. Maybe they will hold it together just long enough to get billary elected though, since it will look like this Keynesian nonsense has worked wonders

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:15 | 4253933 13thWarrior
13thWarrior's picture

Joel Skausen 2017.
Peter Schiff any day.
Gerald Clente 2014 Spring.
Mayans 2012.
Hugh Hendry ?
Webster Tarpley ?

I would love to see a list of this.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:29 | 4254177 Uber Vandal
Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:10 | 4254503 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Promises, promises...

It looks like hookers & blow from now to forever...

/

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:38 | 4253992 Keyser
Keyser's picture

One thing that could accelerate the demise of the US economy are the other actors whose moves have not been telegraphed, such as the BRICS. With China's recent noise on moving away from the USD as a reserve currency and setting up non-USD denominated trade agreements, they could upset the USD apple cart in one fell swoop. My feeling is that if the US presses the Chinese / Japanese territory dispute, it could trigger actions by the Chinese to push the USD over the cliff. Even without a trigger event there is a black swan lurking in the shadows which will destroy confidence and trigger a race to the exits. As always, it's just a matter of time. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:58 | 4254059 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The problem with the scorched earth policy/upsetting the apple cart is that the crystal ball gets pretty murky...  risk aversion dictates that the plan is to implement change over a long time line...  the risk in this approach isn't that the plan is unsound, rather it's keeping together all other constants until the plan has reached its conclusion (e.g. population control, political upheaval, etc.).  Thus far, china appears to be following the plan of dollar destruction and we appear to be helping them out as much as possible...  Why risk pissing off nuclear powers (and countries who are always itching for a fight) when we'll implode soon enough?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:14 | 4254111 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The whole problem here is one of time. The longer the US waits to do something, the longer the measures by China, et. al. have to take effect. If China manages to upset the dollar enough, there will be no going back.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 15:55 | 4254773 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Whether China impliments the future scorched earth or the leaders of the western banks do on purpose (think: scapegoat); China will be blamed.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:53 | 4255013 SDShack
SDShack's picture

2014 will get very interesting in the summer and fall. That's when the insurance industry will have an "Oh fuck" moment with 0zer0care destroying their risk pools. They will realize they have to raise rates again 20-25% to cover all the sick people because the healthy ones didn't sign up for 0zer0care and its $100-200 more per month premiums, plus double copays and deductibles. That will force the insurance companies to jack up rates on employers for their employee plans. No way employers can absorb another 20-25% increase, so they will pass that along (unlikely), or just stop offering employer sponsored HC (likely). The result will be 50 million employees will lose their Employer HC in October 2014 to meet the 60 day WARN requirement for employee benefit changes that go into effect 1/1/2015. The shitstorm that this will create just before an election will be epic, and 0zer0 and the dumbcrats have no way to stop it. Delaying the employer mandate another year won't stop it, because the financial driver is the insurance companies now. And no politician will have the political will to bail out the insurance companies when this risk pool disaster hits them next year. So millions of employees and their families are going to be fucked next fall. Plan accordingly.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:40 | 4253830 401K of Dooom
401K of Dooom's picture

Yeah, sign me up for more QE!   My new years resolution is to grow a Ben Bernanke Beard!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:42 | 4253836 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

That so called budget deal should have put the final nail in the coffin of anyone's belief that the will to correct any of the real problems in this countries fiscal situation exists. People are just happy it was "bipartisan". That word, as George carlin said, merely means an even larger than usual deception is taking place. We will continue to kick the can forever, as long as possible, with no regard to what we are doing to future generations. If we don't fix this, my generation (late 20's to early 30's) will be worse than the boomers for letting this happen. We have destroyed our country and what was left of our economy and currency for a little bit of short term feel-good gain.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:08 | 4253912 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"If we don't fix this, my generation (late 20's to early 30's) will be worse than the boomers for letting this happen."

 

Every generation has let this happen since Woodrow Wilson made the world safe for democracy. The Greatest Generation loved Roosevelt's New Deal.  Camelot, the Great Society program.  As a Baby Boomer, i had nothing to do with any of that stuff, as i was too young to vote for it.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:05 | 4254075 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So at the time that you're politically empowered enough to push through civil rights, you can't possibly reform programs that were known to be ponzi schemes and generational murder weapons?  Kind of weird that you would protest vietnam due to its unfair imposition upon younger generations, but yet ignore social security, among others...  arguably, the latter has a much more profound and widespread impact.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:38 | 4255143 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

just like a lot of the older tea party people. OBAMACARE IS SOCIALISM. Govt is too big, spends too much money, and needs to reign in socialism. And when it gets into how to shrink govt and reduce the deficit its "hands of my social security and medicade" i paid into it, i have a right to it, etc, with no thought given to their children and grand children, enslaved by debt, who are literally funding their retirement.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:44 | 4254019 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The only thing this budget deal has bought is a guaranteed national debt over $20 trillion by 2017. When taken to task, TPTB have chosen to kick the can down the road for the last 100 years. Why should we be surprised by the SOP? If I were in my 20's or 30's, I would be establishing myself outside the continental US because in 20 years the US will resemble any other 3rd world shithole. 

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:42 | 4253848 buttmint
buttmint's picture

..It's always darkest, before the end."

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:05 | 4253914 toady
toady's picture

The light at the end of the tunnel is a train barrelin' down on you!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:12 | 4253928 nickels
nickels's picture

Make two columns. In one, list government initiatives that were unsuccessful- Vietnam War, War on Drugs, Iraq War etc. Then list government initiatives that were successful------- help me out here. Then ask yourself the question " What the fuck?"

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:46 | 4254025 Keyser
Keyser's picture

It's a trick question because the US government has fucked up everything it has touched since WWII. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:43 | 4253851 youngman
youngman's picture

I think Obamacare will be front and center in 2014....to the tune of trillions of dollars more...as no one will sign up and pay....only the freeloaders will sign up....the Insurance companies and States will be screaming for bailouts....as it will blow their budgets....and the healthcare system will fall apart....Doctors quitting...Hospitals closing or going rogue if they can....just a crap sandwich all around....16% of the economy in shambles...not good for GDP....

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:50 | 4253864 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Unfortunately for us all, this "bailout" will come in the form of single payer. Just as this was intended to do all along. The governments takeover of healthcare brings about such a fucking disaster, just as it does to everything else it takes over, that there will be no choice but to go to a completely govt run healthcare system. And the best part is, for them at least, that the people of this country to so hopelessly stupid it will never occur to them that govt intervention caused the problems in the first place.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:20 | 4253946 adr
adr's picture

Just take a look at what happened to health care costs after Hillarycare was attempted. I remember seeing a doctor visit go from $20 with no insurance to $120 between 94 and 98. 

Doctors were making plenty of money when a visit cost $20, how can they not make any money when an appointment now costs $200?

When I was 16 my dentist charged $35 for a cleaning. He drove a Porsche 911. He now charges $150, he drives a Panamera. The difference is now he lives in a much bigger house. 

Honestly if Obamacare causes all these assholes to lose thier jobs, I don't care. Either figure out how to run your businesses with charges people can afford, or close up shop. Charging people $50 cash to see a doctor will become a huge business very soon. Underground medicine will surpass the bullshit mega billion dollar fradulent show.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:12 | 4254113 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Doctors were making plenty of money when a visit cost $20, how can they not make any money when an appointment now costs $200?

Simple, the doctors don't get the money, rather it's siphoned to administrators... 

I agree on the cash practice bit.  Although, enterprising professionals have already gone the cash/concierge route and cherry picked the best clients...  those late to the game get the errr...  turnips.  The other aspect is that with $6000 deductibles, everyone will be paying cash anyway...  however, the prices will be set based upon the insurance reimbursement rates, rather than a lower amount if price discovery was allowed to happen (what people could afford).  So, folks will just doctor hop until all doctors start charging up front...  you want to make an appointment, then pay in advance...  otherwise, fuck off. 

Those professionals who have their financial houses in order will be able to weather the storm...  those professionals who have high fixed costs and debt loads will have to seek out bigger and bigger turnips in the hopes of every marginal dollar of profit.  This process also increases the risk of malpractice and likely leads to lower quality of care...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:31 | 4253970 XitSam
XitSam's picture

+1000

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:54 | 4254045 Keyser
Keyser's picture

They may want single payer, but what about the Insurance industry? To implement single payer would mean the destruction of the private health care insurance market across the country. And with it the subsequent lay off of thousands of employees. Then to have the gubbamint implement and control it? Fuck me, they are so innept they couldn't pull off a circle jerk in a gay bath house. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:16 | 4254126 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Definitely a head scratcher when obamacare was written by the insurance companies...  not sure what their end game is, but if you want to sell illusory insurance, then I can only assure you whatever loopholes exist to avoid it will be exploited to the fullest...  people are smart enough to understand when they're getting value in exchange for their production...  sell snake oil, get shit on.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:24 | 4254558 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Which is why anyone with any sense that is subject to signing up for the ACA are instead signing up for Medicaid. 

As someone on ZH said yeaterday, You expect people that have been getting medical care for free to now sign up and pay for ACA? 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 13:26 | 4254386 XitSam
XitSam's picture

I think destruction of the insurance industry, as it is, is one of the goals.  The feds will nationalize it and then say how they "saved" things.  It will still be run by the same people, but they will be gov't employees.  Remember, it is always about control. In every way possible.

The enemy is evil, not stupid.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:31 | 4254174 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE:

Unfortunately for us all, this "bailout" will come in the form of single payer.

I will gladly bet against this. 

And I'm *for* a single payer system.

But it won't happen for 2 reasons:

A) The corporations (insurers, Wall St) have WAY too much money invested in the current system for this to happen.  So even if they impliment a system they'll call "single payer", it won't be - it will be an even more privatized version of health care they'll rebrand as altrustic.  When it's really designed to make hospitals and insurers more money (from the govt aka taxes you and I) by ensuring that rates (that you and I pay) will rise over the course of time. If of course there was an actual free market for health insurance (sellign insurance over state lines, anyone?), this would be happening now....but it's not free, and is centrally planned by the bought and paid for government.  This is why your health care goes up BEFORE the ACA, and why it will go up AFTER the ACA.

B) As much as I want a single payer system, I also have to recognize the entity that would be charge of running it.  The Feds can't even do a god daned web site right, how would they impliment such a thing without massive fail?  You'd basically have to sack all of the current leeches in the H&H branch of government (most of whom are former lobbyists of health insurance firms, who are paid to stand in the way) and replace them with people who can run such a system efficently. The country is too big, too bureaucratic, and quite simply, too dumb to impliment a single payer system at this time. 

Man is just too greedy for this to happen. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:47 | 4253857 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I have copied and saved this post....next December 17th , I will repost and change the 4 to a 5.   

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:49 | 4253858 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hell who is anyone fooling with baked-in years talk....they could implode it any day that suits them, just like 2008 they pulled the rug when they needed to set the next thing in motion. Don't fool yourself into 'knowing' because unless you've got a FED lapel pin you know nothing.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:30 | 4253960 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

OK, well then if this is all COMPLETELY in their control, and we have thus no way of predicting the when of when the shit comes down, can we at least conclude that a crash/comeuppance/judgment day is mathematically inevitable?

 

Also, does anyone see the manifestation of this ongoing Fed Reserve/Government insanity, being somehow gradual as opposed to the much discussed sudden meltdown?

 

Serious question.

 

Anyone?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:39 | 4253999 XitSam
XitSam's picture

The Gov/FedRes believes it is completely in their control. They could crash it at any time (end QE for example). They will maintain as now until it gets away from them. Then they will take extraordinary measures to "save" it and show they are still in control.  This will make things worse. Prepare accordingly.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:58 | 4254056 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Aren't we already at the point where they are making things worse, because fiscally, everything is unravelling?

 

I am prepping, which given my usual investment timing, means that the crash must be years away.  LOL.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 13:21 | 4254372 XitSam
XitSam's picture

The Fed has been making things worse since 1913.  What I mean is extraordinary measures that will make things much worse. Prolonged bank holiday, nationalization of the banks, partial default on debt, 401k  confiscation, etc.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:26 | 4254570 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Considering that the US is technically insolvent and is being kept alive on life support in the form of QE, I would say we are past the point of no return. The only thing left is for a black swan to dart out into traffic and the bus we are all riding in hits a tree trying to avoid it. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:15 | 4254122 Orwell was right
Orwell was right's picture

I firmly believe the uncontrolled 'money printing" cannot go on forever....however...I consider it possible that we might not have a "sudden meltdown".    I expect a significant "market correction"...(I just don't know exactly when)....and much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth....but we may well avoid a total meltdown.   

That does NOT mean that I think we will escape without pain.    

Prolonged economic 'flatness', with brief periods of hope, soon followed by more disappointment would eventually sap national morale to the point that even the "sheeple" would start clamoring for change.     By that time however, the opportunity for all reasonable remedy would be long gone.     The only courses of action available would be painful, prolonged, and would not offer the "quick fix" that the masses desire.      This would cause flip flops of electoral political power as the masses kick out first one party and then the next, on alternating election cycles.....which would fix nothing.    In some ways, the prolonged 'economic swamp' that I describe would be worse than a sudden meltdown, with it's corresponding call to action that galvanizes the populace.

(....sorry to be such a downer)....

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 15:52 | 4254757 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

it's easy to predict: when the most damage can be done by a market-move or policy-change then it will happen.
It's that easy.
This is war, not economics.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:52 | 4253867 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

there will only be moar, the maggots always want moar. there will be no end.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:51 | 4253869 toady
toady's picture

The thing that bothers me most, when I let this stuff bother me, is that there are no attempts to deal with these financial shenanigans.

It would be great if they reinstated glass-stengle, or banned or limited the fed in some way, or even simply prosecuted some of these financial types.

But no. Nothing. What little has been attempted has been so co-opted or obfuscated by bribery and K street, and thus becomes more harmful than helpful.

And everyone will say ' no one could have seen this coming'.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:09 | 4253918 adr
adr's picture

People always hope for someone to do something about the crime they see. Then they beg for someone to do something. Then they get pushed to thier breaking point.

This always ends badly. We either get a French Revolution or Hitler. The same behavior that brought us Hitler is happening again. People really don't like to get thier hands dirty, they prefer others to do what they wish to do. People wonder why the average German turned a blind eye, because what happened is what they wanted. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 10:59 | 4253884 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Rather than blaming the government for this mess, why not zero (hedge) in on the banksters that control the politicians. These are the guys who are truly to blame.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:05 | 4253904 Xandrino
Xandrino's picture

Not correct. The blame should be on everyone, all the 99% who let this get so far. Ignorance is bliss.

It's serfdom by CONSENT. People have to stick their heads out of their asses for once and for all.

 

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:31 | 4254577 Keyser
Keyser's picture

And how would you propose to motivate the people into action? Especially since the bread lines of 1929 have been replaced with EBT cards. The "poor" in the US do not resemble the "poor" in 3rd world shitholes. Inciting people to action when their bellies are full and they have a roof over their heads is a bit difficult. 

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:05 | 4255053 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Exactly correct Keyser. That's why I think we are a LONG way from the revolution happening. It will require the masses starving in the streets before it happens, and that just isnt' going to happen because TPTB have gamed the system  to prevent it. It will only happen if something unexpected from the outside triggers it, and I am having a hard time even seeing what that could be. The whole world is run by the same sociopaths that have engineered the entire world the same way. Hope & Change was nothing but Hoax & Chains for everyone.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:39 | 4254601 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

LET?
Armed revolution is the only solution & many will die.
Those with children & no firearms are too scared to act.

There is no consent here.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:02 | 4253894 adr
adr's picture

If you want a good play for 2014, buy Under Armour stock. Dick's is on a mission to build Under Armour into the first billion dollar a year vendor. 

Yes, Nike is not a billion dollar vendor at Dick's. 

If the largest sporting goods retailer doesn't buy over $1 billion in inventory from these sulposed multi-billion dollar companies, where do they sell the billions in inventory?

If Dick's doesn't buy $1 billion, that means Sports Authority doesn't or Academy, or Hibbett's. 

Even if the big four all bought $1 billion each, that is only $4 billion in revenue in the largest market. Analysts claim that small stores are the bulk of revenue, which is complete bullshit. There are only about 10k small accounts left, most which can barely keep the lights on. Taken together they max out around $100-150 million across all sales. 

The US market is still the largest market for Nike and UA. Which means foreign sales can not be greater than US sales. Even being generous using numbers far beyond actual sales, the US market maxes out around $7 billion. Matching that with $7 billion in foreign revenue gives a potential for $14 billion.

Realistically US revenue for a single brand like UA probably maxes out around $3-4 billion if they sell to everyone. $30 billion targets are pure bullshit, it isn't possible. I'd put Nike's accounting fudge somewhere around 70%. Being in the industry I know the numbers they claim to hit are impossible.

Eventually the con game has to end.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:11 | 4253921 kito
kito's picture

Prediction: Dow at 18,000 next year, 10 yr at 3.2, yellen still printing, yawn. Gold at 1200. Silver at 20. Bitcoin posts decrease. Faber and rogers and Simon black and stockman and Schiff still screaming bloody murder. Yawn. Dollar still the reserve currency, NSA still snooping, debt ceiling increased, Christie and Hillary become more vociferous. Yawn. Did I miss anything?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:16 | 4253938 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Yeah:  Price of gas; 30yr fixed mortgage rate; and real unemployment rate, please.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:33 | 4253974 kito
kito's picture

Gas $3 a gallon, oil $90 bbl. 30 year a little over 5%, unemployment 6.6%. Anything else? Yawn. And the world keeps moving along.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:38 | 4253978 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

"Prediction: Dow at 18,000 next year, 10 yr at 3.2, yellen still printing, yawn. Gold at 1200. Silver at 20. Bitcoin posts decrease. Faber and rogers and Simon black and stockman and Schiff still screaming bloody murder. Yawn. Dollar still the reserve currency, NSA still snooping, debt ceiling increased, Christie and Hillary become more vociferous. Yawn. Did I miss anything?

 

Yes, this.....you are someone who yawns as your throat is deftly being cut, economically speaking,  and further, you are slyly encouraging others to adopt an insane and suicidal mental pathology....to benefit whom?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:51 | 4254034 kito
kito's picture

I'm sorry but did I get up and scream that the economy has been saved and that all is well? Did I say that the numbers I spouted represent any sense of the underlying reality? Or perhaps I was slyly saying that next year will just be more of the same manipulated bullshit because the world isn't ready to turn the page yet. It's your perception of the meaning of my words that is the problem, douchebag. Perhaps I should start screaming that next year is IT even though I don't think it is. Would that satisfy your craving for spilled blood? Put away the knife as you salivate, you are likely to split a throat.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:50 | 4254041 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Just a few things you missed:

More Americans get fatter, more unhealthy and more proudly stupid and ignorant;

Many more people fall out of the middle class as even more wealth goes into the hands of the 0.1%;

There will be fewer jobs and opportunities available than last year as the cancerous economy  of endless growth continues its slow, agonizing death;

More violence start creeping into whitebread places that didn't worry about violence so much in the past;

Conservatives here on ZH and other websites will still bitch and moan endlessly about Obama being a socialist or communist due to their inability to understand oligarchy. After all, systemic, big picture thinking isn't their specialty. They'll talk tough about guns, ammo and revolution and how the government is the cause of ALL evil in the world yet still love the military. Nothing will change...same as it's been for a decade.

Mainstream Liberals will still be inept, ineffective and impotent at anything and everything they want to do. No change whatsoever.

Tea Party candidates and their Koch brother bought and sold followers will still think they can fix this whole thing from inside the system (they cannot think outside the box). They will talk about freedom and other bullshit then start working to remove the freedoms of people they dislike the moment they might get elected into office.

Same shit, different year.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:12 | 4253927 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I would add another trend: Obfuscation and manipulation of economic data.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:17 | 4253944 jballz
jballz's picture

 

 

The end?

Nothing more bullish than the end... means no fuckin taper EVER!

Buy bitchez! Buy The fuckin dip, especially if the dip is an all time high. No risk, the end is gonna bring the easiest easing ever!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:36 | 4253990 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

I've been hearing that the shit will hit the fan any day now for decades.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 13:42 | 4254428 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

The proverbial shit hit the fan long time ago and yet the results are not what we would have assumed; the evidence, the outcome, the changes are not so immediately obvious, a little obtuse, gradually eroding over time as comes your way ( bar the singular events of war, false flags, personnal tragedy or the like)  and dependent upon your distance from the epicentre, then by the time you know  . . .  you know it.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 11:42 | 4254009 SquirrelButtDan
SquirrelButtDan's picture

0.o  Wtf, almost everyone has at least 1 down vote?? Someone's a trollin'. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:00 | 4254064 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

BLAH BLAH BLAH!!! Each new blogger who enters the doom-zone says the same sh*t that the dude before him said. Such utter crap. No one knows what is going to happen. Face it Zerohedgers: you have NO IDEA what is going to happen. You have opinions and hypothoses, but that's it. BLAH BLAH BLAH. Five years ago thousands of you said it's all going to collpase in 2010, qnd 2011, and 2102...and 2013...ooops. So, what do I think? I think there are global structural issues that make our current path - viz a debt-based global monetary system - unsustainable. I think we are looking at the eventual (key word..eventual) dissolution of the nation-state and of central banking. I think we will see the development of P2P and decentralized systems that challenge the Statist quo....but what is the time frame? Anywhere from next year to 100 years, to 500 years from now. BLAH BLAH BLAH. Stop wasting your time planning for doom and predicting the end of things. Get a job, pay your bills, drink good red wine.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:09 | 4254092 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

"drink good red wine".

i highly recommend Carlo Rossi Merlot.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:09 | 4254099 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

"I'm not gonna drink any fuckin' Merlot!!!" (Miles in Sideways)

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:18 | 4254531 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I just found out what Amarula is - I'm going to try that as soon as I get a chance.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:10 | 4254103 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Nichelini Merlot - the best

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 12:04 | 4254076 CaptainSpaulding
Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:13 | 4254518 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Balderdash & twaddle! we can print moar welfs!!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!