2014 Will Move Us Closer To The End

Tyler Durden's picture

Originally posted at Monty Pelerin's World blog,

The fraud that has been the US government and its effects on the Potemkin economy should be obvious by now. Yet our politicians continue to pretend the economy is growing and recovering. It is not. It is in a death spiral that their interventions caused and continue to feed.

The presentation below is another one from Gordon T. Long. This one includes Charles Hugh Smith as his guest. Both are worthwhile listening to, especially in this presentation.

 

What is discussed is expectations for 2014. The problems that may surface this coming year have their roots decades before. Each problem results from prior government attempts to stop normal economic corrections. Each was designed to stimulate the economy to avoid the necessary adjustments. Their effectiveness short-term was politically acceptable and was achieved by distorting prices, interest rates and lending standards. The intent was to send false signals to economic actors, to encourage them to behave in ways that helped short-term results but were harmful long-term.

For years short-run corrections were avoided or mitigated by this falsifying of economic signals. The cost was to make the economy weaker and less efficient. It also was to burden the economy and its participants with record levels of debt. This economic debauchery produced immediate good feelings in the same manner that excessive drinking does. It makes you feel good during the binge, but the next day is hangover time.

The economy has been wasted. These short-term highs have place it in grave danger. John Maynard Keynes replied to objections to his short-term remedies with the statement that “in the long-run we are all dead.” Keynes is long dead. Perhaps he was thinking only in terms of his lifespan. The rest of us are facing the consequences of such irresponsible policy.

Whether enough of the negatives hit in 2014 to sink the country is doubtful but not impossible. The saddest part about what is happening is that there is no political will to even recognize the path that we are on. From a political standpoint, no one wants to admit we are in trouble. As a result, there are no attempts to remedy our economic and social spiral to ruin, (and probably no way) to reverse the march to collapse.

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Smuckers's picture

....Happy New Year!

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Idiot Maya chronologist, is mix up year to be late.

Chris Jusset's picture

In 2014, it will be entirely clear that:

 

US economy = FRAUD

Congress = FRAUD

The Fed = FRAUD

Obama = FRAUD

Economic "recovery" = FRAUD

Bubbles everywhere = REALITY

Xandrino's picture

That has been clear for over 50 years, and what has changed?

If you look the numbers this ponzi should have ended a long time ago.

War=destruction=rebuilding.

If there is a danger of a collapse, it will be WAR.

War is the driving factor in the US.

 

moneybots's picture

"If there is a danger of a collapse, it will be WAR.

War is the driving factor in the US."

 

That's only because you let them game you.

Keyser's picture

Perhaps there is hope as we saw the American people make their position quite clear when Obama attempted to bull his way into Syria. 

NotApplicable's picture

As long as people use the phrase "our politicians/government/etc" there is no hope of ANY solution.

The Beast will never die as long as people support its existence in their minds.

MachoMan's picture

If that's your thesis, then syria is a terrible example...  that one just went to shit because youtube videos were the basis and the internet community had long since known the SAA wasn't responsible for the crime...  and the administration was forced to show its hand and had nothing...  (check to putin on that one).

If you're going for an example, I'd cite the gun control/confiscation/registration failures...  people got pissed the fuck off and the proposed laws died on the vine...  all of this despite a full out blitz from the MSM including getting a laundry list of celebrity assholes to come out and carry water for the administration (this means you jeremy renner, you fucking hypocritical twat).

SDShack's picture

Good analogy. It was even more of a disaster than that for the gun control pukes. When the got the Colorado legislature to go along with their gun grabbing plans, 2 senators were recalled, and a 3rd quit to avoid being recalled. Plus 90% of the sherrifs (elected) are refusing to enforce the laws. Major fail that shows the people can indeed rise up against TBTP when motivated.

CH1's picture

That has been clear for over 50 years, and what has changed?

The number of people who are seeing through the bullshit. And it is a big change.

MachoMan's picture

When we're finally incentivized to wake up, we wake up...  go figure.

Truther's picture

Time to finalize preps.

Shizzmoney's picture

2015 is the year when shit *really* hits the fan.  This new budget "deal" they negotiated in Congress with the debt ceiling extend all the way until Aug/2015......when we go through this debt ceiling bullshit again JUST IN TIME FOR THE ELECTIONS.

The political whores will take this opportunity to suck off their banker pimps.

Add to my "financial crises happens around the end of presidental terms since end of Bretton Woods" theory, and 2015 could be a very scary year. 

2014 will be OK though (until Q4)

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

We will see about 2014. I'm not one to cry doom all the time, but these mid term elections could be interesting. I'd be a little surprised if we can make it another 2 years like this without a recession, which either is caused by, or causes a currency crisis. Maybe they will hold it together just long enough to get billary elected though, since it will look like this Keynesian nonsense has worked wonders

13thWarrior's picture

Joel Skausen 2017.
Peter Schiff any day.
Gerald Clente 2014 Spring.
Mayans 2012.
Hugh Hendry ?
Webster Tarpley ?

I would love to see a list of this.

kralizec's picture

Promises, promises...

It looks like hookers & blow from now to forever...

/

Keyser's picture

One thing that could accelerate the demise of the US economy are the other actors whose moves have not been telegraphed, such as the BRICS. With China's recent noise on moving away from the USD as a reserve currency and setting up non-USD denominated trade agreements, they could upset the USD apple cart in one fell swoop. My feeling is that if the US presses the Chinese / Japanese territory dispute, it could trigger actions by the Chinese to push the USD over the cliff. Even without a trigger event there is a black swan lurking in the shadows which will destroy confidence and trigger a race to the exits. As always, it's just a matter of time. 

MachoMan's picture

The problem with the scorched earth policy/upsetting the apple cart is that the crystal ball gets pretty murky...  risk aversion dictates that the plan is to implement change over a long time line...  the risk in this approach isn't that the plan is unsound, rather it's keeping together all other constants until the plan has reached its conclusion (e.g. population control, political upheaval, etc.).  Thus far, china appears to be following the plan of dollar destruction and we appear to be helping them out as much as possible...  Why risk pissing off nuclear powers (and countries who are always itching for a fight) when we'll implode soon enough?

BandGap's picture

The whole problem here is one of time. The longer the US waits to do something, the longer the measures by China, et. al. have to take effect. If China manages to upset the dollar enough, there will be no going back.

willwork4food's picture

Whether China impliments the future scorched earth or the leaders of the western banks do on purpose (think: scapegoat); China will be blamed.

SDShack's picture

2014 will get very interesting in the summer and fall. That's when the insurance industry will have an "Oh fuck" moment with 0zer0care destroying their risk pools. They will realize they have to raise rates again 20-25% to cover all the sick people because the healthy ones didn't sign up for 0zer0care and its $100-200 more per month premiums, plus double copays and deductibles. That will force the insurance companies to jack up rates on employers for their employee plans. No way employers can absorb another 20-25% increase, so they will pass that along (unlikely), or just stop offering employer sponsored HC (likely). The result will be 50 million employees will lose their Employer HC in October 2014 to meet the 60 day WARN requirement for employee benefit changes that go into effect 1/1/2015. The shitstorm that this will create just before an election will be epic, and 0zer0 and the dumbcrats have no way to stop it. Delaying the employer mandate another year won't stop it, because the financial driver is the insurance companies now. And no politician will have the political will to bail out the insurance companies when this risk pool disaster hits them next year. So millions of employees and their families are going to be fucked next fall. Plan accordingly.

401K of Dooom's picture

Yeah, sign me up for more QE!   My new years resolution is to grow a Ben Bernanke Beard!

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

That so called budget deal should have put the final nail in the coffin of anyone's belief that the will to correct any of the real problems in this countries fiscal situation exists. People are just happy it was "bipartisan". That word, as George carlin said, merely means an even larger than usual deception is taking place. We will continue to kick the can forever, as long as possible, with no regard to what we are doing to future generations. If we don't fix this, my generation (late 20's to early 30's) will be worse than the boomers for letting this happen. We have destroyed our country and what was left of our economy and currency for a little bit of short term feel-good gain.

moneybots's picture

"If we don't fix this, my generation (late 20's to early 30's) will be worse than the boomers for letting this happen."

 

Every generation has let this happen since Woodrow Wilson made the world safe for democracy. The Greatest Generation loved Roosevelt's New Deal.  Camelot, the Great Society program.  As a Baby Boomer, i had nothing to do with any of that stuff, as i was too young to vote for it.

MachoMan's picture

So at the time that you're politically empowered enough to push through civil rights, you can't possibly reform programs that were known to be ponzi schemes and generational murder weapons?  Kind of weird that you would protest vietnam due to its unfair imposition upon younger generations, but yet ignore social security, among others...  arguably, the latter has a much more profound and widespread impact.

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

just like a lot of the older tea party people. OBAMACARE IS SOCIALISM. Govt is too big, spends too much money, and needs to reign in socialism. And when it gets into how to shrink govt and reduce the deficit its "hands of my social security and medicade" i paid into it, i have a right to it, etc, with no thought given to their children and grand children, enslaved by debt, who are literally funding their retirement.

Keyser's picture

The only thing this budget deal has bought is a guaranteed national debt over $20 trillion by 2017. When taken to task, TPTB have chosen to kick the can down the road for the last 100 years. Why should we be surprised by the SOP? If I were in my 20's or 30's, I would be establishing myself outside the continental US because in 20 years the US will resemble any other 3rd world shithole. 

 

buttmint's picture

..It's always darkest, before the end."

toady's picture

The light at the end of the tunnel is a train barrelin' down on you!

nickels's picture

Make two columns. In one, list government initiatives that were unsuccessful- Vietnam War, War on Drugs, Iraq War etc. Then list government initiatives that were successful------- help me out here. Then ask yourself the question " What the fuck?"

Keyser's picture

It's a trick question because the US government has fucked up everything it has touched since WWII. 

youngman's picture

I think Obamacare will be front and center in 2014....to the tune of trillions of dollars more...as no one will sign up and pay....only the freeloaders will sign up....the Insurance companies and States will be screaming for bailouts....as it will blow their budgets....and the healthcare system will fall apart....Doctors quitting...Hospitals closing or going rogue if they can....just a crap sandwich all around....16% of the economy in shambles...not good for GDP....

Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Unfortunately for us all, this "bailout" will come in the form of single payer. Just as this was intended to do all along. The governments takeover of healthcare brings about such a fucking disaster, just as it does to everything else it takes over, that there will be no choice but to go to a completely govt run healthcare system. And the best part is, for them at least, that the people of this country to so hopelessly stupid it will never occur to them that govt intervention caused the problems in the first place.

adr's picture

Just take a look at what happened to health care costs after Hillarycare was attempted. I remember seeing a doctor visit go from $20 with no insurance to $120 between 94 and 98. 

Doctors were making plenty of money when a visit cost $20, how can they not make any money when an appointment now costs $200?

When I was 16 my dentist charged $35 for a cleaning. He drove a Porsche 911. He now charges $150, he drives a Panamera. The difference is now he lives in a much bigger house. 

Honestly if Obamacare causes all these assholes to lose thier jobs, I don't care. Either figure out how to run your businesses with charges people can afford, or close up shop. Charging people $50 cash to see a doctor will become a huge business very soon. Underground medicine will surpass the bullshit mega billion dollar fradulent show.

MachoMan's picture

Doctors were making plenty of money when a visit cost $20, how can they not make any money when an appointment now costs $200?

Simple, the doctors don't get the money, rather it's siphoned to administrators... 

I agree on the cash practice bit.  Although, enterprising professionals have already gone the cash/concierge route and cherry picked the best clients...  those late to the game get the errr...  turnips.  The other aspect is that with $6000 deductibles, everyone will be paying cash anyway...  however, the prices will be set based upon the insurance reimbursement rates, rather than a lower amount if price discovery was allowed to happen (what people could afford).  So, folks will just doctor hop until all doctors start charging up front...  you want to make an appointment, then pay in advance...  otherwise, fuck off. 

Those professionals who have their financial houses in order will be able to weather the storm...  those professionals who have high fixed costs and debt loads will have to seek out bigger and bigger turnips in the hopes of every marginal dollar of profit.  This process also increases the risk of malpractice and likely leads to lower quality of care...

Keyser's picture

They may want single payer, but what about the Insurance industry? To implement single payer would mean the destruction of the private health care insurance market across the country. And with it the subsequent lay off of thousands of employees. Then to have the gubbamint implement and control it? Fuck me, they are so innept they couldn't pull off a circle jerk in a gay bath house. 

MachoMan's picture

Definitely a head scratcher when obamacare was written by the insurance companies...  not sure what their end game is, but if you want to sell illusory insurance, then I can only assure you whatever loopholes exist to avoid it will be exploited to the fullest...  people are smart enough to understand when they're getting value in exchange for their production...  sell snake oil, get shit on.

Keyser's picture

Which is why anyone with any sense that is subject to signing up for the ACA are instead signing up for Medicaid. 

As someone on ZH said yeaterday, You expect people that have been getting medical care for free to now sign up and pay for ACA? 

XitSam's picture

I think destruction of the insurance industry, as it is, is one of the goals.  The feds will nationalize it and then say how they "saved" things.  It will still be run by the same people, but they will be gov't employees.  Remember, it is always about control. In every way possible.

The enemy is evil, not stupid.

Shizzmoney's picture

RE:

Unfortunately for us all, this "bailout" will come in the form of single payer.

I will gladly bet against this. 

And I'm *for* a single payer system.

But it won't happen for 2 reasons:

A) The corporations (insurers, Wall St) have WAY too much money invested in the current system for this to happen.  So even if they impliment a system they'll call "single payer", it won't be - it will be an even more privatized version of health care they'll rebrand as altrustic.  When it's really designed to make hospitals and insurers more money (from the govt aka taxes you and I) by ensuring that rates (that you and I pay) will rise over the course of time. If of course there was an actual free market for health insurance (sellign insurance over state lines, anyone?), this would be happening now....but it's not free, and is centrally planned by the bought and paid for government.  This is why your health care goes up BEFORE the ACA, and why it will go up AFTER the ACA.

B) As much as I want a single payer system, I also have to recognize the entity that would be charge of running it.  The Feds can't even do a god daned web site right, how would they impliment such a thing without massive fail?  You'd basically have to sack all of the current leeches in the H&H branch of government (most of whom are former lobbyists of health insurance firms, who are paid to stand in the way) and replace them with people who can run such a system efficently. The country is too big, too bureaucratic, and quite simply, too dumb to impliment a single payer system at this time. 

Man is just too greedy for this to happen. 

Seasmoke's picture

I have copied and saved this post....next December 17th , I will repost and change the 4 to a 5.   

SheepDog-One's picture

Hell who is anyone fooling with baked-in years talk....they could implode it any day that suits them, just like 2008 they pulled the rug when they needed to set the next thing in motion. Don't fool yourself into 'knowing' because unless you've got a FED lapel pin you know nothing.

PrecipiceWatching's picture

OK, well then if this is all COMPLETELY in their control, and we have thus no way of predicting the when of when the shit comes down, can we at least conclude that a crash/comeuppance/judgment day is mathematically inevitable?

 

Also, does anyone see the manifestation of this ongoing Fed Reserve/Government insanity, being somehow gradual as opposed to the much discussed sudden meltdown?

 

Serious question.

 

Anyone?

XitSam's picture

The Gov/FedRes believes it is completely in their control. They could crash it at any time (end QE for example). They will maintain as now until it gets away from them. Then they will take extraordinary measures to "save" it and show they are still in control.  This will make things worse. Prepare accordingly.

PrecipiceWatching's picture

Aren't we already at the point where they are making things worse, because fiscally, everything is unravelling?

 

I am prepping, which given my usual investment timing, means that the crash must be years away.  LOL.

XitSam's picture

The Fed has been making things worse since 1913.  What I mean is extraordinary measures that will make things much worse. Prolonged bank holiday, nationalization of the banks, partial default on debt, 401k  confiscation, etc.

Keyser's picture

Considering that the US is technically insolvent and is being kept alive on life support in the form of QE, I would say we are past the point of no return. The only thing left is for a black swan to dart out into traffic and the bus we are all riding in hits a tree trying to avoid it. 

Orwell was right's picture

I firmly believe the uncontrolled 'money printing" cannot go on forever....however...I consider it possible that we might not have a "sudden meltdown".    I expect a significant "market correction"...(I just don't know exactly when)....and much hand wringing and gnashing of teeth....but we may well avoid a total meltdown.   

That does NOT mean that I think we will escape without pain.    

Prolonged economic 'flatness', with brief periods of hope, soon followed by more disappointment would eventually sap national morale to the point that even the "sheeple" would start clamoring for change.     By that time however, the opportunity for all reasonable remedy would be long gone.     The only courses of action available would be painful, prolonged, and would not offer the "quick fix" that the masses desire.      This would cause flip flops of electoral political power as the masses kick out first one party and then the next, on alternating election cycles.....which would fix nothing.    In some ways, the prolonged 'economic swamp' that I describe would be worse than a sudden meltdown, with it's corresponding call to action that galvanizes the populace.

(....sorry to be such a downer)....