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Is The Fed Driving You To Drink?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While this morning we were re-assured by the government's statistics that there is no inflation (or deflation); implicitly enabling the Fed's extreme monetary policy to continue with no immediate consequence, it would appear there is an oddly synchronized rise in the price of something critical to day-to-day 'coping' for many - alcohol prices. Spurious correlation or unintended consequence? Cost-push or demand-pull?

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

Seems like it might be time for prohibition once again?

 

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Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:28 | 4254895 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

How about Kool-Aid prices vs. Fed assets?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:30 | 4254911 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Is The Fed Driving You To Drink?

.

No, this life in general is...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:34 | 4254928 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

THE FED IS DRIVING ME TO DRINK.....MOAR!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:36 | 4254940 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

I don't always drink, but when i do I prefer Fed Kool-aid and vodka.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:44 | 4254966 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The Fed is driving me crazy,

  but it's a short trip.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 19:57 | 4255414 youngman
youngman's picture

no I walk to the bar....crawl home..hopefully

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:14 | 4255085 candyman
candyman's picture

Since Ben never admitted to the first step, he will never stop.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:42 | 4254971 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Bless you!  That's exactly the excuse I need to see now!


Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:49 | 4254984 CounterPartyVice
CounterPartyVice's picture

Time to implement an alcohol future market to smash the price down and repress alcohol producers with well managed derivative contracts. I will drink to that.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:51 | 4255008 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Bad idea dude!  Cause the evile speculators will do with booze what they're doing with oil!   Fucking us poor drunks!  (alcoholics go to meetings!)

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:05 | 4255045 Raynja
Raynja's picture

Alcohol is a two tiered market, cheap booze is the same price as it was in the 90s, good booze keeps on getting more expensive*

 

 

 

*store bought 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:18 | 4255101 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

During prohibition, buying "bricks" of compressed raisins became popular.

They came with the following warning:

Do not add this to five gallons of warm water, and do not add ten pounds of sugar, and yeast, or it will become wine, which would be ILLEGAL!"

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:20 | 4255102 TheLoveArtist
TheLoveArtist's picture

I drink my JEW KOOL-AID and watch JEW TV all the time.  Helps me be oblivious to the fundametal LAW underpinning the Torah (aka Book of Lies and Deceit)

Leolom Tickach = Always Take!! (Jewish Proverb)

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:28 | 4255120 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

You must first take, in order to give.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:43 | 4255148 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

These days, both Gold and Bitcoin is driving people to drink.

What a ride the last 12 months were in both!  Clouda, woulda, shoulda.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:31 | 4254916 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

How about shit shovels and manure collectors ...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:32 | 4254919 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Now this is one investment where I'm winning.

I bought a kegerator about six years ago, and my keg price has remained constant since.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:26 | 4254898 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

LMAO!

Now it has all become clear.

Or blurry, rather.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:34 | 4254929 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I think you mean Burry.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:30 | 4254904 michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

I wonder if there has been a corresponding drop in consumption/production?  Consumption/production should nearly be a zero sum game for this business model.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:28 | 4254907 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no, the Fed is driving drunk

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:28 | 4254908 docmac324
docmac324's picture

Like it's 1999!

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:34 | 4255129 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"like 1999" you say?  In 1999 a really cool Sci-Fi action thriller novel came out: CRYPTONOMICON, by Neal Stephenson. 

It was the heart & soul of what later became BTC.  Color me 'shocked'.  I guess ZH didn't tell you.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:31 | 4254912 EddieBurgerPie
EddieBurgerPie's picture

How about a graph on loss of sleep or extra hours reading ZH?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:31 | 4254922 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Support the craft beer industry......fuck the big boys (BMC)

~~~

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:41 | 4254960 superflex
superflex's picture

Fuck the overpriced craft beers.

Drink PBR.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:47 | 4254983 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Hipster Queef!

Back on topic, that alcohol chart looks like eerily similar to this:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1448/fed-balance-sheet-vs-gold-price

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:55 | 4255023 superflex
superflex's picture

I'm so far from a hipster, it's not funny.

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:08 | 4255061 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

"Hipster Queef!"

Many here do not know of the true hipster. The L-train stick figures from fly-over-landia.

Taking up precious space in Brooklyn. 

Fuck 'em.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:44 | 4255521 toxic8
toxic8's picture

this man speaks the truth

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:49 | 4254988 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No!  Not PBR!  That was high school for me!

How about... Sam Adams?  Or some other good regional bottled brew..

I got it!    Yuengling!

http://www.yuengling.com/over21/over21.php?referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yue...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 18:58 | 4255318 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

There are many very good craft beers made right here in the good ol USA. O'Conners, St. George Pale ales are good...

 Leinenkugel's Snow Drift Vanilla is to die for.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 22:29 | 4255733 wahrheit
wahrheit's picture

Just in case anyone missed it, Yuengling is a product of Philadelphia and one of the USA's oldest beers.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 22:14 | 4255711 toxic8
toxic8's picture

Hoegaarden, Leffe. Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada... and GOLDEN MONKEY!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:54 | 4255019 kito
kito's picture

superflex wants us to drink multinational horse piss instead of actual beer. amazing. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:58 | 4255033 superflex
superflex's picture

Um,

Pabst is brewed and headquartered in the USA.

Why dont you stick to wearing gold chains and bashing gold bugs.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:06 | 4255054 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

I think "K" is thinking about Bud or Miller.

But which also shows how fucked up the US has become when the biggest brewer we had is now foreign owned. At least the Chinese didn't get it.

And please don't tell me if Jack Daniels is foreign owned now..

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:43 | 4255147 kito
kito's picture

superflex, 99 percent of their horse piss is brewed by miller. perhaps too much of that nasty shit has gotten to your brain. have you been hazed yet? 20 weeks on this site clearly isnt enough time for you to know my philosophy on gold. i think im going to make you my bitch superflex. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:53 | 4255544 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

be nice kito...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:06 | 4255055 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Hey Kito,

CHeck the price of Silver measured in Tobacco, not in a bubble whatsoever.

http://grabilla.com/03c11-08091475-f9cc-4dea-a680-f26d801930e5.png

 

Next Tobacco price and M1.

http://grabilla.com/03c11-ac632aa0-94d7-498d-b77f-49079dce93b6.png

 

Drop your dollars now! 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 18:15 | 4255233 kito
kito's picture

whitenight, do you think you are early on this call?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:33 | 4255482 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Hi Kito, it is not a question of time, but price, but not measured in dollars. Dollars are useless to measure price, so I had to really scratch my head to find something reliable and stable. Processed Tobacco is reliable, if Silver doubles while Tobacco triples, Silver will be cheaper than today in real terms.

Forget dollars, they have lost their unit of account as well as store of value. 

Have you checked my chart between CPI and tobacco and how CPI and Tobacco used to move in sink through the 1947 inflation, bretton woods stability, bretton woods break up until 1981. http://grabilla.com/03c12-ff189374-4f11-405e-b7d7-1587a466c24b.png

Have you seen the collapse of the ratio once hedonic adjustment were made? The official CPI numbers are just fantasy land price measuremens since hedonics. In France they actually exclude Tobacco from inflation calculation... (how convenient).

If silver is Flat and Tobacco doubles, Silver will be cheaper than today.

My wedding in the Carribeans was in 2002, and everyone had to wear a Gold colored item, I had a gold colored tie....

I think you are in the wrong big time, but nonetheless rest assure you have all my consideration and respect.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 19:52 | 4255407 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Free yourselves, make your own alcohol at home! It's cheap(er), easy(ish), and you can make tastier product for your $$

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:33 | 4254933 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I tried really hard to find answers in the bottom of the glass but had to give up in the end.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:35 | 4254942 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Fuckin' with my beer and whiskey.  Yet another reason to end the Fed. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:57 | 4255030 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Helped harvest 13 tons of Syrah, petit Syrah and Cabernet for ours friends last Sept. They paid us in wine. So as long as I stay in shape and lift 30# five gallon bucket of grapes into the crusher I'm set. I wish I could find someone who makes fine whiskey and do a trade as well. That is becoming a truly expensive vice I hate to give up!

Miffed;-)

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:10 | 4255072 Icewater Enema
Icewater Enema's picture

Miffed- try making your own! Experimenting with this (no batches yet but thought I'd pass it on) Those magnum-sized bottles of Bombay Sapphire are burning a hole in my wallet. I'm sure there is a way to make small-batch whiskey, though I'm told by my chemist friends that distilling is potentially hazardous, thus...

http://www.jeffreymorgenthaler.com/2007/how-to-make-your-own-gin-without-a-still/

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:35 | 4255135 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

http://homedistiller.org/

 

FYI, it's not legal unless you jump through a bunch of hoops because they want to tax the shit out of it here in the good'ole land of the free.  .

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 18:28 | 4255266 Icewater Enema
Icewater Enema's picture

Yeah, thus the non-distilled method. More like infusion than distilling. However, it can be done here, if you are willing to jump through the hoops. This guy literally started experimenting in his own home not that many years ago.

http://www.greatlakesdistillery.com/

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 01:01 | 4256079 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Thanks ice water and El Vaq. I'm fascinated and hopefully can do this someday. I was staying at a farm in New Zealand and asked what our host did with all the fruit he had planted. He smiled at me and led me into his house. Dozens of stainless steel barrels lined up fermenting! I was amazed. I tried several of his finished ones and was quite impressed with the smooth complex flavors. You could barely detect the fruit. Of course, new Zealand is an "everything goes" kind of place ( hard to come home to the Land of the Shackles) so he didn't worry about legal issues. If I ever do this it will be private use only.

Miffed;-)

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:39 | 4254951 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

I only drink when I'm high.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:51 | 4255004 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

or very very low

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:59 | 4255029 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Guess I chose the wrong time to quit sniffin glue.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:40 | 4254962 QE49er
QE49er's picture

How can you blame people for going insane in light of all this insanity?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:43 | 4254965 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the congress member
and money lender
are on a homicidal bender
drunk with the blood of our children

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:49 | 4254993 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

I'm doing my part to drive up demand for an assortment of whiskies:

 

Prepping experts say they are excellent form of money when the SHTF, so I'm laying in a variety of 1.75 L bottles.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:12 | 4254998 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Anything which has very stable/inelastic demand and supply is a benchmark for prices. Here is the benchmark for prices. Processed Tobacco (the commodity) and M1.

http://grabilla.com/03c11-a6394388-0094-4d5c-b7d5-aca078758e0d.png

Next we have CPI divided by Tobacco between 1947 until today. Between 1947 and 1981 there is no hedonic adjustments so CPI and Tobacco move at the same pace, the ratio CPI/Tobacco is flat. After 1981 Tobacco keeps rising fast, and CPI is repressed with calculation gimmicks, so the ratio tumbles. Interest rates are repressed along with inflation and cost of borrowing is repressed, the results are a binge on credit.

 

http://grabilla.com/03c11-2ca3b637-6d19-4eb6-aa82-1b7b0fc74b16.png

 

The Fed is full of shit. They need an excuse to print money so they come up with bogus inflation. Interest rates should be at 6% but evidently that would destroy bad credit.

 

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:49 | 4255002 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Nah! The Fed and their treasonous puppets are causing me to perfect my 'smithing and aiming skills. My stacking is also getting pretty good, and I have also become recognized as an expert in guillotine construction and maintenance.

"See you on the battlefield, as I'm not getting on the train."

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 16:50 | 4255003 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

I see no inflation.  Increase the QE - there are no problems that more QE or alcohol cannot solve.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:16 | 4255044 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Eating out (restaurants of course) has become so expensive. Me and the wife could grab a large pizza a couple of glasses of wine each a few years ago for $28-30 Bucks. Now just one glass of any decent wine is $8-10 dollars each and the pizza is at least $15+. Notice they don't include dining out in the inflation numbers. 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:32 | 4255130 ljag
ljag's picture

How's about the Gus Solution ( breaking bad). Just get 100 bottles of 20 yr old bourbon delivered to those inner chambers and.......problem solved!!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:57 | 4255572 the0ther
the0ther's picture

And all that liquor will be good as gold when TSHTF.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:35 | 4255139 akarc
akarc's picture

"Now just one glass of any decent wine is $8-10 dollars each " ????

Might I suggest ripple?

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:15 | 4255465 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I rarely drink at restaurants anymore.  I will on rare occasions have a couple of beers if it's from a local brewery.  There's one local brewery that has both a stout and a nut brown ale and both are excellent.  Other than that, it's too damned expensive.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:18 | 4255098 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

QE is like whisky, if a little makes you feel good, moar will made you feel gooderer.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 19:56 | 4255418 Overfed
Overfed's picture

And just like QE, the hangover is gonna be a bitch.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:26 | 4255113 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

I'm drinking for 6 sheeples doing my bit for the sunken economy.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:34 | 4255132 bearish1
bearish1's picture

Cheers!!!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:41 | 4255145 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The Fed is driving me to shrink, ZH is driving me to think, and BTC is driving me to drink.

Or it would drive me to drink (in celebration or sorrow), if I had ploughed as much fiat into BTC as I have into PM.  "Timing is everything"**

** They don't teach you that here (where the "Sky is falling" 24/7/365/2009-2014).  You just have to figure it out or rediscover it.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:44 | 4255150 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

I used to like to drink whiskey

but doing so made me feel frisky

so i switched to gin

which made me want to sin

and punch all politicians in the face

 

Fuck it, I'm no Limerick King

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 18:08 | 4255213 PrecipiceWatching
PrecipiceWatching's picture

Maybe you can be Duke of Sonnets.

Or, Haiku Samurai.

 

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 18:41 | 4255292 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

For reasons I can't quite pinpoint, you reminded me of Ogden Nash: Candy is Dandy, but Liquor is Quicker

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:07 | 4255433 youngman
youngman's picture

I can drink all the liquor down in Costa Ricor...

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:49 | 4255169 robochess
robochess's picture

Yes. Yes they are.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 17:55 | 4255190 rp1
rp1's picture

What's this chart showing?  Alcohol over-consumption leads to QE?  I believe it.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:34 | 4255506 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

The Fed does drive me to drink but actually it is the holidays that cause me to tip it on back.  Here is a list of them.

http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/us/

I also observe foreign holidays as well.

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:53 | 4255545 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Ish jush liiike to say......uhh...jush a moment pal... I lurrrve you...wot was the qustion?

Fed the End...or someshing like dat....

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 20:56 | 4255566 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

This is a very serious financial blog concerning the screwing by the FE..Damn,...will you LOOK @ that ass on that ROAD KILL GIRL?!

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 22:10 | 4255701 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

:-D

Tue, 12/17/2013 - 22:36 | 4255752 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

Hey, the cheap stuff I drink is still cheap.  They know why I'm buying it.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 00:43 | 4256046 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

How to make white lightning, by a real old school hillbilly.

"This Is The Last Damn Run Of Likker I'll Ever Make"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yp56sT66D1U

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!