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Bonds Shrug As Taper Smashes Stocks To Record Highs

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The S&P 500 rallied well over 40 points (and the Dow up over 350 points) off the FOMC knee-jerk lows but bonds were largely unimpressed. USDJPY surged to new 5-year highs over 104. Bonds weakened, rallied,a nd then leaked back higher in yield to close almost unchanged from the FOMC announcement. VIX was smahsed back under 14% - its biggest drop in over 2 months.

  • *S&P 500 RISES 1.7% TO RECORD 1,810.79 AT CLOSE
  • DOW AVERAGE INCREASES 1.9% TO RECORD 16,171.12 AT CLOSE

We can only imagine what would have happened if he'd tapered $20 billion?

 

Stocks merely played catch-up to the Fed Balance Sheet...

 

Seems like not everyone agreed that this "Taper" was a good thing...

 

Industrials hit a new post-debt-ceiling-low high - as did homebuilders...

 

USDJPY hit 5 year highs...

 

Stocks surged on the carry exuberance...

 

but bonds reverted back to almost unchanged (as Gold tumbled and the USD surged)...

 

It's all shits and giggles on business TV for now as the stock market's reaction is "clearly" indicative that the Fed has won - never mind th erest of the asset classes of the world are signaling this is not good news. Two things of note are that we saw heavy blocks into these highs (which has marked short-term tops in recent weeks) and that the surge in stocks occurred perfectly off the S&P 500's 50DMA once again (just like Sunday night).

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Treasury Curve was entirely unmoved at today's exuberance....

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Will Nikkei and Dow range-trade? or will Nikkei break above Dow overnight?

 


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Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Fuck You Bernanke!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

It's clear this is a centrally planned economy.  It is the farthest thing from a free capitalist economy that the world has ever known.  At least the communists were upfront about their socialist schemes.

Gold was smashed when QE3 announced.  Gold smashed when taper announced.

There is no economy.  We are slaves of the banks.  If you are a credit junkie, you are fucked.

Ben Bernanke is a fucking asshole.  He says his greatest achievement was "transparency".

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?  Lying asshole.  You're such a fucking liar.  You WILL rot in hell.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Debugas
Debugas's picture

indeed money are just coupons to spend and these coupons are given to the closest buddies first

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

So bad is good is off and bad is bad and good is good again ???

 

confused .........

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Just means increases in the Fed's balance sheet haven't been driving risk asset valuations through the stratosphere after all.

Must have been the scorching hot economy.

Take that all you conspiracy theorists.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

All hail the great and powerful carry trade.  If your stock is not in the SPX you don't exist.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Initial Market reaction is usualy "right" one. My beiggest question for today is after initial dump who just started buying everything putting market from Reverse stright into 4 th speed. It just went vertical out of nowhere and this just set off triggers and set momentum later. I'm sure FEDs NY desk was well prepared to take action and oh they did... There is no other way around this market wouldn't sell off... Whne just on hint of tapering it did and after that almost recovered everything

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

The next thing that is going to happen is that, contrary to what everybody expected, interest rates are going to fall.  EZ to explain. Because, although the Fed is tapering, nobody else is.  Kuroda is about to double down.  The ECB is forced to do something to keep the Euro from rising further because the Germans are having trouble with their mercantilist agenda.  China is a monetary explosion that's totally out of control.  So the dollar will rise and people with money will want assets denominated in dollars.  Hence, despite the Fed easing out of the bond-buying business, U.S. bonds will be bid, interest rates will fall.  

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Don't scare and scatter the sheep 7 days before Christmas...they still have lots of $hopping to do.

.

The shit storm is coming, don't worry about it.

.

Until then - try and not stress too much (not good for heart), dark humor in everything, kiss/hug your loved ones tonight and don't sell your soul:)

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

"So bad is good is off and bad is bad and good is good again ???

 

confused ........."

 

Here is the deal...the fiscal crack is going to keep on flowin´baby, for a long time to come, and Wall Street got a brand new pipe, packed that bitch full, and are now enjoying an all-time high.  Make sense now?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

and i thought after that last glass the keg was starting to float, hmmm, guess while i took a piss they switched kegs, all good party on...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Record highs huh...? Guess it's time to buy stocks and get in on the party.

The numbers might be a little off but you get the point.

 

Twitter          Current Valuation: $11 billion
Spotify         Current Valuation: $3 Billion
Pinterest      Current Valuation: $3.8 billion
Instagram    Current Valuation: $1 billion
Fab              Current Valuation: $1 billion
Snapchat      Current Valuation: $800 million
Tumblr         Current Valuation: $1.1 billion
Yelp             Current Valuation: $4.4 billion

Revenue for the above companies... $0  or negative

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

in irrationally exuberant bull markets such as this good news is great news, bad news is good news and no news is good news.  

 

this is just day one of the next leg up, we will probably go up another few percent in the last few trading days of 2013 to set us up for the real bull run that will kick off in 2014.  

 

if you like selling em at here at 1800 you are going to LOVE selling them next year at 3600.  

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 20:36 | Link to Comment SunRise
SunRise's picture

A prophet in the mist

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Gold went on sale when QE3 announced.  Gold went on sale again when taper announced.

FIFY

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Apparently 'taper-on' is the new 'Moar QE'?

Fuck I don't know, I give up.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the world reserve currency, said:  " I don't begin to understand gold prices and don't know how gold is priced."

5,000 years of global monetary use, and the Chair-idiot "doesn't understand it"?

Perhaps he oughtta go back to school.  Fuckin' dirtbag liar.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

does this have anything to do with the 'secret budget deal' that just passed?

seems awfully suspiciuos to me.........

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:39 | Link to Comment vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Correct.

Gold sure is the elephant in the room amongst the central banker pusbags. Not one of them wants to touch the subject with a ten foot pole and they all play dumb when asked about it, what does that tell you?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

<<Apparently 'taper-on' is the new 'Moar QE'?>>

Yes, it is. You just got it in a nutshell.

They went from $85B per month, to $75B per month. Which'll go up again if a 'more dovish' need arises. And with zero rates, it will.

(And that's just the numbers they're admitting to.)

Someone on another thread said it best: "I'm reducing my daily martinis from 7 to 6, I'm tapering too!"

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

All I can think is that the market saw -$10b as half-stepping. It would have taken a strong move to show that they were serious about cutting off the flow "for real," and this wasn't strong enough. All that cash sloshing around sees it as confirmation that the party is still raging, which is just enough reason to keep buying. Collapse won't be here for at least a few months.

At the end of the day this move smacks of an attempt to keep everybody happy, but it confirms that they have no plan, no end game. They're just trying to keep the party going as long as possible, making these little moves to try to gauge reaction. The stock markets probably aren't the place the feds are going to look to gauge reactions though. The market perceives the moves as weakness. Weakness = moar QE longterm, even if it's a little less for the immediate future.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

It was choreographed in advance. Taper had to look good to the suckers. "See, the market went UP!"

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Mr. Sheep Dog, I think Mr. Market must have been afraid of a BIGGER taper, that's all.  Mr. Market can easily handle a puny skinny taper like today's, and besides there may be some UN-tapering that we don't know about (the so-called "Dark QE").

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

gold is plain and simple fucked right now. gonna break 1187, major suport and trail to who the fuck know where. but ask me if i care? (fuck no!)

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

I'll buy some gold around $400 an ounce, put it in a box and my son will have it to sell the next time the SKF spikes a few hundred points.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment CounterPartyVice
CounterPartyVice's picture

Get out of their fucking system, it's that simple.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment GaryNeville
GaryNeville's picture

You know the disturbing scene in Casino where Joe Peschi get smashed to death by guys with baseball bats?

I feel like I'm lying on the floor and a load of bullish traders and Ben Bernanke are doing that to me - except for they dont get to bury me alive because I'm dead!

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

The 10-year bond will sing the song my friend.  This game is far from over.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

"It's clear this is a centrally planned economy.  It is the farthest thing from a free capitalist economy that the world has ever known.  At least the communists were upfront about their socialist schemes."

Indeed. This is why I've thrown in the towel on all markets big and small, PM, virtual, stawwwks or otherwise and been in a generally gloomy mood. Nothing is real, everythng is fake, all is manipulated.

As I lay awake with insomnia last night and I pondered the USD and its eventual collapse, I was thinking back to the depression. When the government went bankrupt then, they called the gold in from the people at large, and then revalued it -- fucking the people out of 40% of their money. The bankruptcy was an opportunity for these fuckers. Thinking forward to a year or five from now, when this happens all over, it's unreasonably to expect it to be any different, only this time we've got people in much more difficult place. TPTB will keep Cloward-Piven-ing away, and when the time comes the next wealth confiscation will be sold as getting even with the rich "who took all you people's money." Naturally it will do nothing to that actual 0.1% with billions, but you can expect Cypress-style seizures and 401K haircuts all over.

The power grab ( like there's much left ) when this goes down is going to be terrifying. The only real hope I have is that since it'll break the will of what's left of people working and still doesn't address the expense side of the equation, that eventually at some point after the whole thing implodes like the USSR did. My gut feeling is we're going to see a handful of left-leaning east-coast states grab onto whatever is left and be the analog that Russia is to the old USSR. Unforunately I think this may take years to occur after the seizures take place.

I really miss living in a free country.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

My sentiments exactly. Then I wonder if it has always been this way in my lifetime or is this a new development and a new paradigm we're experiencing? I've met depressed people in my lifetime and could never figure out just why they were so gloomy. I guess when they figured out that everything they thought was real but turned out to be manipulated, corrupt or fake, that's when they made the transition. It's getting worse as the level of corruption and propaganda increases and it will go on for as long as the elite is happy and unchallenged.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The thing to hold on to is our individual capacity to give a shit about other individuals that we interact with.  Humans are capable of some unbelievably fucked up shit, but we're also capable of some mind-blowingly awesome shit too. Cultivate the awesome in your own life, and tell everything else to fuck off, because you really do have more important shit to attend to.  

I know this is very evident to you based on your many prior posts, but sometimes it helps to hear it anyways.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:49 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

I think as long as we've been alive there's always been some element of this -- the Fed is 100 years old, after all, and there's little question shifting from constitutional money to Fed notes changed everything -- but my sense is we shifted into a new, unparalleled level of manipulation in the past decade or so. Looking back, you can see how a number of events (with 9/11 being one inflection point, and 2008 being another) all combined to put together a system of total control.

I know things were pretty corrupt in the 70s, but as I go over history, I don't think there's been a time where large-level corporate interests were as untouchable -- maybe the early 1900s when Teddy Roosevelt started doing the trust-busting, but I think we all realize that would never happen today. On top of this we have militarized police with DHS' tentacles embedded, the NSA situation, and active (and now legalized) propaganda directed at the public. I really do think this is something completely new and different.

I know eventually we will mean-revert and that the control TPTB has is a short-term illusion, but god is it painful living through it and watching this take place.

I guess it's time to watch They Live again.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

I know things were pretty corrupt in the 70s, but as I go over history, I don't think there's been a time where large-level corporate interests were as untouchable --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Some things just to potentially add clarity:

1.  The early 80's real wages crushing fist smash to unions, which in turn paved the way for the 90's "free" trade deals.  Basic intent here was to destroy the purchasing power of the plebs, creating debt serfs.  Wealth transfer.

2.  Late 90's internet stock pump and dump was a tremendous wealth transfer mechanism.

3.  The big payday, pump and dump of housing in the 2000's, which transfered/continues to transfer real asset wealth at a scale that is frankly still mind-boggling to me.

I think privately held gold is on such a tiny scale relative to land resource grabbing, I just don't see it as being particularly high priority in any reset scenario.  The people that should be actually worried are those with major stakes in oil/natural gas/mineral assets domestically that are not well-connected; nationalization or your more standard shady bullshit reg-fucking so the likes of Exxon/Shell/BP can swoop in.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

10B taper?  so now they will only print 115B/month.  impressive.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

"We can only imagine what would have happened if he'd tapered $20 billion?" ..... C'mon you fucking pussies, do it!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

"I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG_xNbVMmIA

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

As a long-time reader of science fiction, I'm well acquainted with the phrase "willing suspension of disbelief." That is what one must do to be able to enjoy science fiction - ignore impossibilities.

It has come to the point where the same must be applied to any observation of current economics/financial 'markets'/political hogwash. Attempting to apply real-world logic leaves one hopelessly adrift. Confused. Bewildered.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment joego1
joego1's picture

Yeah! We took a piss on an ocean of debt!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It used to be "no news is good news."  Now it seems as though all news is good news.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

Tapering (now), no tapering (September), doesn't matter it's just more reason to rally.  All news is good news because 'investors' (or rather, 'market' participants) are celebrating the omnipotence of the Fed.  They know the Fed will keep the money flowing one way or another regardless of what they say publicly.  And they believe they've got the Chinese and Arabs by the balls and will continue to be able to send worthless paper to them in exchange for precious manufactured goods and oil.

For now it's working out in their favour, and their celebration is sickening to watch.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

this looks like a short covering rally to me not a speculative blow off top as I talked about when this year began. In other words there is still a profound number of "perma-bears" who are levered and short so much of everything every time the Fed says "boo!" equity markets go through the roof and gold gets crushed "on no news whatsoever." Morgan Stanley which is a debt shop as much as an equity place (after being gifted Smith Barney to them by Citigroup) went through the roof today. In other words the people who are buying are the ones who fully levered to the short side...the bulls are simply holding as the "squeeze" gets tightened. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcL6DwSufMI

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Thebugsmuggler
Thebugsmuggler's picture

In a bull market, all news IS good news

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Someone needs to make a new bears video to explain this to working class amateurs like me.

"What does that mean?"

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The old one still works.  BTFD.  They just need to put a quick blurb about BTFATH on the end.

My explanation:  The market is a tale, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

It means that the lemmings have bought into the false narrative that the economy is improving.  We should have known given the number of hacks parading around CNBC of late explaining why rising interest rates is a good sign.

Bottom line - more sheep being ushered into the pen for later slaughtering.  Shorts are being publicly caned for their lack of faith in the establishment.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:21 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

I think it's more subtle than that. There really aren't many lemmings left, if any. Maybe some pension funds and 401Ks, but they're already being sucked by the banking vampires.

I think it means that sole remaining market participants -- the large banks -- are helping maintain the illusion that the economy is improving, and that they will be rewarded via POMO dollars, regulators that look the other way and wrist-slap fines for egregious violations while raping the real economy and previously mentioned funds.

I do agree with your take on shorts. There's no need to ban them when the market itself is a giant short bug-zapper.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 06:03 | Link to Comment fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Correct.  People who have figured out that the Fed is the only one buying bonds now can't seem to figure out they're doing the same with stawks.  It will all end very badly for them.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:11 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Can someone explain what we saw this afternoon?

DavidC

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

?????????????????

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Sorry, I don't speak douche.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's not that hard to understand. The financial media instills fear of a taper and shorts jump on any downward tick like fools. Then the Bernank gives them the hot poker up the ass. It's the same fucking story that has been playing out for the last five years and they still can't catch on. There will not be any money made on the downside. The market is a policy tool....not a market.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 02:07 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

1000% Doc...well described....

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So all this time 'tapering' was not bad news at all, but the best possible news equities could hope for? Uhhhhh excuse me my brain just fell out of my ear.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Phucking fool I am, I just bought bunch of TZA on the close...funny S&P and Russell rallied on a big spike to points away from all time highs...If I'm wrong, I'll pull the plug tomorrow but got a feeling tomorrow could be wickedly downward???  Will I never learn???  Haven't tried this since '11...last time there was a tapering???

Every last phucking cent is long and leveraged...every last granny's portfolio is deep in Naz, Russell, and risk upon risk.

If there ever was a trap door...my oh my the fall from here.  Not likely, but just saying

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

dude, i really hope u make a ton of money on this, but i fear u may lose out.

 

there is almost  a 0 percent chance of markets being down tomm, we will prob add 5-8 pts to s&p and 70-80 to the dow.

 

its all bullshit, and if there ever is a pullback, it will be like 20 pts or so.

 

the only thing that is not allowed to go up is gold and silver, one strong day for those 2, and a monkey hammer must take place.

 

as for the s&p and dow, it can go up forever.

 

good luck tomm, but i think u made a bad trade.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

@Hamm,

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Up to $7.5 billion in QE tomorrow.  That's actually the largest I've seen in a while.  A down day would be very, very surprising.  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:39 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

It's a sleight of hand the Fed is playing.  But I'll bet the NY Fed FX swaps will deceases rapidly esp the ECB flows, as the USD looks primed to be sold hard.  At this point I think this is one of their worries.  But for anyone expecting straight out Weimar printing, its more of a management with their printers all based on the idea to manage a stock market and attempt to create a safe haven in stocks i,.e underwrite when they they have to.  In the old days you would have 1 to 2 % swings neg and buying dips.  Now its just sells on less than 1% with buys on 2% + gains.  You couldn't wish for a more crony obscene situation, but this is the Fed under crazed academia, sanctioned by Obama. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment piker
piker's picture

I would bet you're right.  Although it's doubtful they'll allow any downturn before Santa flies.  I been out of the market since mid 2012.  Recently started small purchases of PM's.  None of this makes sense, but it's sickening to watch the manipulation.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:45 | Link to Comment halmega9000
halmega9000's picture

From a technical stand point, I would not short the market at this point. i'd get out while you can...if your lucky; the market may rest or flag for the next couple days ...but dont mistake the bottom of the flag (if it flags) as market is going down... just my own opinion.

ps.. from a non technical stand point i dont understand why the market went up on news of taper.. but then again what do i know...markets are on crack.  

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The beatings will continue until the shorts finally realize that they are the Bernank's whipping boys.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I don't believe for a second there is some army of rich ultra dumb 'shorts' out there who just keep taking the Charlie Brown swipe at the football day after day, horse shit.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thank you.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Spastica, I thought you bailed.  Good to see a post from  you.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm here every day, I just have very little to say anymore.

What is there really to say?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

rex, a while back, you mentioned a IPA beer that you were enjoying, something about being brewed by God, can you recall which one it was?

TIA

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Oh, yes: Terminal Gravity IPA, God's own beer.

I don't think its available outside of the Pacific Northwest. Maybe California and B.C.

http://www.terminalgravitybrewing.com/find_our_beer_11.html

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

stay thirsty my friend!!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

"What is there really to say?"

Fuck the Bernank and the Yellen he rode out on!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:11 | Link to Comment greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> What is there really to say?

Market wise I'd say very little.  But you've had some interesting commentary on the generally depraved state of the nation, at least in  my opinion.  Enough so that it caught my attention, not that that counts for anything.  Anyway, sorry for noticing your posting drought.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

One word...... Ackman.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

I would rather stick my head in a fan, juggle lawn darts with Stevie Wonder and masturbate with cheese grater mittens than short this market. 

I hope I did not get too technical. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

No... but you got overly accomodative...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Nope not too technical you didn't get into what you do with the fromunda cheese afterwards.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Why is a 1.7% rise in stocks a surge, but a 1.7% rise in bond yields a "shrug"?  [48 basis points on 2.875% = 1.7%]

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment chirobliss
chirobliss's picture

Can't be bothered, sigh...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Because they want to tout the extremely short term positive effect of higher nominal equity gains, while minimizing the slightly longer term world destroying consequence of a 10 year above 3%.  

Also, there is no way they actually follow through on taper on a longer timeline than March expiration.  0.0% chance.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

we demand a BONUS CHART!?!.. maybe PCLN or FB

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

BONUS BONUS CHART! TYLER DELIVERED!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

1. Short all enemies of the Fed:  PMs + BTC!  BTFD, if you dare or can't help to have the "Audacity of Hope"

2. Long Stocks: BTFATH!

/s

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The only trade I can stomach doing is VXX short via put options in the LEAPs.  It became obvious via the forensics posted here that smashing volatility is the preferred methodology of maximizing the QE ROI.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment bullet
bullet's picture

fed forward guidance... all you savers bend the fuck over for a few more years... fuck you ben

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

10yr will now continue its march up in yield. Presently at 2.89%.

One thing no one is talking about is the housing market ( other than ZH). This was another nail in the claimed recovery coffin.

It will take some time...but gold will start its march back as the impact of rising rates ( regardless of how hard the Fed tries to sit on them) continue to squeeze upward, putting more pressure on the total debt held ( public and private).
Heck since October 1 the government has added $512 Billion in new debt... We all know the debt ceiling fight will be a joke and political posturing for the 2014 elections.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly, so the Fed will have monetized 1,260 billion instead of 1,270 billion at the and of Jan 2014.  Big fucking deal, the interest still needs to be serviced and the liabilities/budget still needs to be funded.

Tick tock motherfuckers.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

What he said.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I was just just reading an article posted by another blog and almost lost my lunch. The guy says that the usd/jpy has broken out and now the door is wide open for move to 115 usd/jpy. (I've no doubt it will eventually) Can you imagine a move like that after a move like we just had. he needs to lay off the crack pipe.

   The Japs will get eaten alive with import and energy costs. They just posted a huge deficit earlier this week, and they want to increase their QE next year. The move in the usd to get to those levels in a straight line would kill profits from us exports. These fucking retarded rats never learn until the ship is ready to sink!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1 "they've" been trying to defend that yen-penny thing for years. "they" will ultimately fail because "they" have zero idea of what "they" are up against.

...listen, and try to understand. that bernankinator is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until the USD is dead.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

a lot of funny things happened today.

 

1. they said taper. ya, real taper they did. of course they couldnt leave out the fact that they will continue purchasing assets for the immediate future with the possibility of an increase if data weakens, and of course will hold interest rates at low levels for years to come,

 

2. ''investors'' like this news. ya, like there were real investors buying this today, not hft alogs or anything like that.

 

also, whenever we have days like today, its because growth is picking up, everything is good, etc, but if we had a down day like this ( lol, just fell out of my chair, down day)  we would here how its just  a profit taking day.

 

i hope these assholes suffer all so much when it ends, but right now this fucking sucks

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment trader1
trader1's picture

you're also forgetting this:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/18/politics/senate-budget-deal/

For the first time in what seems like ages, Congress has passed a government spending plan without resorting to last-minute brinkmanship such as midnight negotiations to prevent an imminent government shutdown.

The Senate voted 64-36 on Wednesday to send the compromise federal budget framework to President Barack Obama, who has signaled his support.

Last week, the budget plan easily passed the House on a 332-94 vote, with solid majorities of both parties supporting it.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:53 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

o dont worry, they will say that they did not pass it, and then on a day the market is red ( down like 5 pts on the dow) they will say how they passed a budget deal so the market can rally another 300 pts plus and so on.

 

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

The Budget deal is the apparent death-knell for Tea Party power in DC, until the elections of course.  Budget deal + mini taper = PARTY ON!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Who needs bonds when you can double your money every month, risk free, in social media stocks.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment EddieBurgerPie
EddieBurgerPie's picture

"Taper: No way, No how!" -Peter Schiff

"We are in QE Unlimited" -Marc Faber

"Fed can't Taper" -James Rickards

I need to find some new gurus.... (sigh)

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

still printing 75 billion per month...

your "gurus" are 88% correct, still a pretty damn good hit rate.

"taper" not to start until end of January?

Yes, sell your gold, sell it all...

to me.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 01:16 | Link to Comment EddieBurgerPie
EddieBurgerPie's picture

The point is that NO ONE really knows what the Fed is up to except possibly the powers that be. The [sarc] joke that you completely missed is there are no Gurus! When someone makes a determined statement like," Taper:No way, No how" or "We are in QE unlimited" or "The Fed can't taper" and the Fed tapers even a small reduction, then their call is wrong.  Not 88% correct! Come on man, that sounds like a spin from CNBC. At least that Greg Manarino wanna-be Guru said there was a 5% chance of a Taper. He left his options open so when he was proven wrong today, he said he was only 95% wrong. Hey are you guys related?

I will still read Rickards' book when it comes out next year. I pre-ordered it on Saturday. I will continue to be entertained by Farber and Schiff is Gold in my book (pun intended) but lately, I am beginning to have a shift on how this end game is going to play out. 

Sorry, No way, No how am I selling my gold.

Especially to you. ;) Not selling yet anyway...... (see how easy, I left that window open) Ask me again when its $4-6K.....

My Pax is warming up. I may be willing to share that with you.

Peace out.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

2.7 billion to rehypothecate has been cut to only 2.5 billion per day.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Peconic Bay
Peconic Bay's picture

I should've listened to David Tepper months ago.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

This was the algos parting gift to Bernanke. "See, I could taper after all & all is well. Exit stage left.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Do you always believe what psychopaths tell you ?

They lie you know, all the time.

Next you will tell me TBTF are solvent.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment cassotto
cassotto's picture

i tried shorting this rally, having a great day ^^

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Machine Parts
Machine Parts's picture

Once interest rates start to move up, I believe a 'coincidental' geo-political event will occur that causes further increases in QE.  The Fed called our bluff today, but certainly can not continue to do so for an extended period of time.  Gold's rubber band is being pulled back even farther today. Tax loss selling may further exacerbate losses.  I'm looking forward to the inevitable PM rally commencing in Q1.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

NY Fed algo was determined to crown Bernanke with a record saluting good-bye.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Patience, wait until we get to the very last second of shit or get off the pot when it actually goes into effect. It is like Texas Hold Em, we are still in the betting and bluffing portion not the put the cards on the table and see who wins this hand part yet.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:05 | Link to Comment wiseindian
wiseindian's picture

And in looking at gold after market close... oh how the bleeding continues. I bought before the announcement ... I don't regret it because I'm not into the speculative $10 up/down mess but now the problem is I'm tempted to buy MORE !!! ARGH !!!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Gold is at "blood in the streets" USD prices.  Fully-loaded marginal cost of extraction is $1400.  It is functionally stupid to not buy under that price.  

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

everyone i know made at least 250,000 on that move

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment wiseindian
wiseindian's picture

Care to explain that to a newbie please?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

The only taper you'll likely see is the slope of the forehead.

 

Or foreskin, as the case may be.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Bennie, my boy, if you don't understand how gold is priced, I have a time machine to take you back to the Weimar Republic - so you can kinda get a handle on the mechanics of gold pricing.....

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

This is the Mini-Taper we mused might be in the cards. It is similar to the Mini-Budget Deal, in that in both cases not very much actually happened, either in terms of materially slowing the pace of printing or the pace of incurring debt and vomiting out federal IOUs, the ultimate multi-use and multi-hypothecatable security that cannot be beat for erecting towers of leverage.  It serves the purpose of saying "see, we told you were credible, so this tiny step should assure you believe our big lies when we tell you we are not printing."  Many steps forward, and one baby step back, is still many steps forward.  Or as some wiser person than I observed above, going from 7 martinis to 6 a  day is a taper, but hardly a meaningful reduction.  This is a gesture, mere lip service, a graceful bow to those in the audience still skeptical of the Fed's omniscience.  And the market's reaction, in the form of a relief rally tha the party is not even close to ending (more likely the covering of shorts by those who persist in an irrational belief that betting against the Fed might yet be profitable) proves it.

But let's not discount the volatility effects - give it a few days.  The half-life of these confidence building exercise in Off-Broadway production is measured in days, not months or even weeks. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:28 | Link to Comment BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The magic password to make money in this market is now available for anyone willing to recognize it:

 

                                                        H  U  B  R  I  S

 

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

 hahaha 75b from 85b taper.  big deal, money supply will increase ten-fold.  Fed is just playing a game with their safe haven theory for stocks.

Anyone that BTFD well done.  With the Fed 80 drawn on the USD and selling pressure from across the board, we are still close to a $ freefall.  But nearly 2% swings (stocks) on the upside is phenomenal.

Oil about to hit 100, watch gold and the USD, there is no way China will let their gold holdings collapse i,e cue: tensions

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

As I recall at full speed the fed was accumulating .3% of the bond curve per week for 1.2% per month or 14.4% per year with an expected lock down sometime in 2018.

 

Does this push D-Day back to 2019 or 2020?

 

I did some back of the napkin bullshit math and came up with:

 

.94% accumulation per month at 75B. So 11.38% per year at 75B/mo.

Think it was at 32% for the article recently so 43% in 2014, 54% in 2015, 66% in 2016, 77% in 2017, 88% in 2018, 100% sometime in 2019.

 

Nice can kick, right into the middle of the presidential race.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 21:16 | Link to Comment PowerPlayer
PowerPlayer's picture

The Fed claims to be data dependent, yet they also claim that they will hold interest rates at 0% until 2017.  Well, which is it because it can't be both.  I guarantee that if inflation hits 5% in 2015 that the Fed will raise interest rates, so the FOMC giving forward guidance on interest rates 3 years into the future is BS.  

 

This Fed has 0 credibility, but yet everyone else just swallows this crap hook, line, and sinker.  Everyone thinks the Fed controls the economy, but the fact is the economy controls the Fed.    

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