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T Minus 60 Minutes: This Is Where The Market Stands Right Now

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The anxiety is palpable (despite the constant reassurance that it's all priced in) as markets are getting jittery. Stocks are sliding back to unchanged (on the heels of AUDJPY weakness); VIX is flat at 2-month highs; bonds are notably weaker (not helped by the dismal 5Y auction); and gold and silver are oscillating (on the rise in the last few minutes).

 

 

The S&P and the Nasdaq are at crucial levels once again...

 

as a gentle reminder...

What happens when there's no one left to sell to?

 


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Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm sure that was the rallying  cry in Zimbabwe as well.

Turned out well don't you think ?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Dog and pony show with a bearded racoon as ring leader.  Who cares if taper on or off?  The economy is in the tank, banks are insolvent.  Weasel out of that Ben, you prick.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:23 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I didn't get the "anxiety is palpable" bit. This was all planned, this was all directed. Its like watching a familiar play in which the actors do exactly what is expected.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Gold and Silver Popping Now:

Live Gold: http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/

Live Silver: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

Counter-moves before the release, or was the actual release whispered to somebody?

Or does the release not even matter. It will be moved where "THEY" want it to go?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Bearhug Bernanke
Bearhug Bernanke's picture

I wonder if Hilsenrath is writing his report on the Fed's announcement right now.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Expected by who?   The US Government??

The Federal reserve is owned mostly by the big banks.  And they're done soaking up  the flood of debt to support Obama now that he's politically meaningless.

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke will announce an increase in QEasing to 190 billion USD per month and sheepishly proclaim that Yellen made him do it at knife point,  before running off into the sunset.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Ppt and ben always buy bidless markets

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

There's only anxiety for the suckers.   There will of course be no taper.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

ZOMG!11-eleventy!!!  No taper?!?  But there MUST be a taper!  How can there be no taper?!?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Chief Falling Knife
Chief Falling Knife's picture

Are there any bets yet on how high the S&P pops if/when no Taper is announced?

New high today or tomorrow?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:26 | Link to Comment the question
the question's picture

At least 1%. Even though most here can see it coming.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

We only have 1 at this price and inventory is moving fast. What can I do to put you in this market today?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Ok let me go talk to my manager....

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

I thought the PDs got the FOMC minutes yesterday?!?!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

They said that about houses. . .

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:04 | Link to Comment 666
666's picture

Ooh, the suspense!

I still say no taper yet.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Not only will there be no taper, they will even introduce doubt about April.

They'll say no taper now... but MAYBE in April.   And then they'll add a taper that's so hilariously insignificant that it proves they're completely fucked.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:25 | Link to Comment KingFiat
KingFiat's picture

The economic data looks like no taper. And most analysts say no taper this time.

But I like to be contrarian. If the Fed keeps talking about tapering without doing it they loose credibility.  So I think a really small taper could be possible this time, just because the Fed wants to show they are not just all talk.

So I am positioned for a taper of around 5-10 b/m. No taper would be ok by me. And a really big taper would be fun...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

he is not going to say what he is really doing. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

"When it gets serious you have to lie".

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they might not know what they're doing. they might do that anyways. the "dumb policy" says "if it works who cares why/why not." the "smart policy" says "this is what we want...you do that. not even if it doesn't work...especially if it doesn't work." I thought this would be a real yawner...wrong again.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:06 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Do yourself a favor and BUY NOW!!! BTFATH! Every HF manager ready to do it too... don't think otherwise.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment CHX
CHX's picture

<<< Taper talk

<<< Taper walk

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

"We are closely monitoring economic conditions, and we may adjust the level of asset purchases early next year."

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Exactly.  If they were going to do a token taper - last time would have been better.  Every single quarter is going to be worse from here on out - so the chances of tapering is pretty low IMHO.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment CHX
CHX's picture

T minus 4 minutes and silver droped 1% in seconds...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:08 | Link to Comment CHX
CHX's picture

...and fully retraced at T minus 1 minute. and back down 2.5% at T=0. AND it's a Taper light. 

 

update. after 3 minutes, silver again above 20 dollars. it's crazy out in algoland.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Buy SPY sell USO

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

All was quiet, not even a RAT

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Just Look at that 10Y. I dare you Ben !!!!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

My prediction: they announce a small taper, like 5 bil over the next 6 months.

Then spew rhetoric how they can change that policy at any time if conditions weaken.

They need to taper a little to show credibility. To prove all the Peter Schiffs ("they will never taper!") wrong. Otherwise, they become the FED who cried wolf. And they're perilously close to that. Also, it would make everyone rush to buy/lock in interest rates, so it might boost certain sectors in the short run, so the FED can claim victory once again. Expect a small taper.

Gold and Bonds are signalling no taper.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:23 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They will announce a taper of 10 million USD monthly.

So, they'll keep doing 84 billion 990 million in bond purchases.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment KingFiat
KingFiat's picture

I agree. Credibility is important for the Fed. And they also need to show they are in control. If they keep postponing tapering, markets may think they are loosing control, and bond rates will begin to rise anyway.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:39 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

No offense since I like Gold too, but it could not fight it's way out of a wet paper sack right now. Hardly an indicator of what the FED may or may not do.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment robilla
robilla's picture

I think we have reached a permanent higher plateau in equity valuations.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

Would love to see them announce no taper and stocks sell off hard anyway.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

That would be perfect. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

Premature Evacuation

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:30 | Link to Comment redux2redux
redux2redux's picture

It's like a game of musical chairs, where there are millions of players and a few (one?) chairs.

There will be a 'lucky' few who will get to sit out the downdraft when the music stops.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:12 | Link to Comment frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Marshmallows over the fire. Check. Multiple trading positions on. Check.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Taper or no taper, the PTB will naked short the shit out of metals about a thousandth of a second prior to the announcement.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

T Minus 59 Minutes for your inside players.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

59:59:999 - those HFT computers don't need much of a headstart.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Patented pre-release spike in gold, followed by the mandatory post-release waterfall.  Come on miners, a little faux rally to short into would be fine.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:30 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Jonh Hellacious breath is putting the finishing edit on his summary due out at 2:00:05 eastern time

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment freedogger
freedogger's picture

No taper means a small bounce up and then more uncertainty. Ultimately not good for market. Not like I facking care though. I'm out and been out for a while.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment maskone909
maskone909's picture

i hope XMAS is ruined.  i fucking hate holidays. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

But ToysRUS and KOHLS will be open 24/7 till D-Day!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:38 | Link to Comment greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> i hope XMAS is ruined.

I know there is one Jap guy who's got a ruined Christmas.  I doubt his wife will notice, until his credit card no loger totes the load.

 

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:15 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

cycle inversion =no taper

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:21 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

no taper of course, but it would be funny if they just came out and said " hey, we pulling the plug entirely"

then the DOW bottoms out in the time it takes a Porsche 911 gt to get from 0 to 60.

now, that would be entertaining, yes?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:23 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

yeah if they taper the goverment and banks are fucked

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:25 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Holy Hellalulu. Some fool out there thinks stock prices have something to do with people.

The price of gold has to do with Bitcoin and the Super Geniuses at the PBOC just figured out that the FED shoveled them a load of shit when they sold them the United States of America gold reserves (as well as Germany's). They'll be stuck with the raw material for, circuit boards and jewlry, if bitcoin becomes a world currency.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:22 | Link to Comment RiverDrifter
RiverDrifter's picture

If there is any hint at a change in QE 4ever, it will be that they're thinking of actually increasing the amount by $15-25 Billion USD per month....talk of taper is funny though---everyone knows they can't taper & so they won't.  Simple as that.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:22 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

It could still be worse than taper anxiety... The top posting on reddit's /r/bitcoin is the number to the national suicide hotline.

Can't wait to see the PM moves (no taper is probably what, +1%? Taper on, -10%?)

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:25 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

BTFAT dip before they announce no - taper.

Benjy wants to go out on a high, and the banks are still insolvent.  Watch him goose this bitch to dow 40,000.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:26 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

taper ha ha, thats funny.

 

as faber said yesterday, there will only be an increase, no decrease.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Gold was flat to down on the day and is now positive. What's that dripping noise? Do I hear a leak?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:29 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

  There will !00% NOT be a taper of any sorts. It will be more jawboning..there is no chance Ben does not want to hand the hot potato to Yellen and make his exit at all time highs on the Ponzi Index because to him that is all he believes matters because he is lining up for his 500k a speech at the big banks and maybe a few  no show board positions with stock options...NOW he is about to receive his payout for giving the bosses what they wanted all along..free money and wealth transfer and he is about to get his cut.

       Nobody on Wall Street expects a taper because there can be no taper and I agree they will pretend they make begin to taper in January with a more likely target of March and maybe April..It is all about faking it till you make it or until you break it OR RATHER it Breaks you. Token taper in spring and then an increase in purchases by summer. 

There is no out..ONLY IN.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Finnman
Finnman's picture

Remember, tapering is actually good for stocks. So let's rally!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Double POMO day tomorrow. I doubt those yearend bonuses are at risk. January may be a different story.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Keyser
Keyser's picture

Gold caught a bid right at 1:00pm EST... Someone got the Fed minutes ahead of time... 

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

And continues. Interesting.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:46 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Ah, yet another few moments where the entire global financial community waits on pins and needles for what our masters are prepared to tell us.  Just think we are waiting for a) the opinion/decision of ONE human being or perhaps a small group of humans, and b) that decision concerns how much more or less per month in USD will be printed out of thin air on top of the trillions already printed.  God bless America!  Just a matter of time before the current system is toppled and replaced.  has anyone seen anything more absurd than this situation?  

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:53 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

So does Ben say to himself. I think I'd rather Yellen be the Fall Guy right before Christmas? After all, whats another month of ripping off the country.

Hellooooo....... yo anyone know if Dimon has finished his Christmas shopping?

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:58 | Link to Comment superflex
superflex's picture

There goes silver.  Somebody knows something.

...and there it goes the other way.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

And bam gold flips

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:03 | Link to Comment superflex
superflex's picture

Nifty double head fake and someone left their shoes on the playing field.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

Ah yes. So much easier when you got the play book. Twas well played by somebody.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Gold spike/smack at :55

 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

what is being missed is that even if they taper $10bn, there is still no expectation they will ever tighten again.  they'll give us the $10bn to calm people down, but we'll never see another tightening. 

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:04 | Link to Comment ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Even if they announce a taper how do we know that they actually reduce the amount they print per month?  in fact, how much are they printing per month?  this whole thing has gone way beyond any level of credibility.  if they agree to an audit and prove me wrong then I can live with that.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

IF they taper they will make up for it some other way.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 14:59 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

No taper, some other BS plan.

Maybe more QE.

After this the chances of future tappering is 0.

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