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Who Knew What 50 Seconds Before The FOMC Release?

Tyler Durden's picture


Last time it was trading faster than the speed of light in gold and stocks. This time, 50 seconds before the FOMC statement was officially released to the great unwashed, Nanex notes that the market exploded with activity reaching levels higher than during the actual FOMC news release. As they show in the charts below, approximately $106 Million of SPY and 3,700 eMini Futures contracts traded in 1 second. Gold - while less voluminous - was just as berserko in the minutes and seconds leading up the news release. What is going on here?


See also this image of eMini liquidity during this time.


For clairfication, here is S&P 500 Futures price and volume... (1-second bars)


And Gold...


And Nanex shows the incredible surge in activity...

1. Trades per second in NMS Stocks and ETFs (2,200 of approximately 8000 symbols traded).
Note the peak occurred about 50 seconds before the FOMC announcement.

2. Dollars traded (thousands) per second in NMS Stocks and ETFs.
Note the peak occurred about 50 seconds before the FOMC announcement.

3. Symbols traded per second in NMS Stocks and ETFs.

Nanex Research


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Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:51 | 4259520 overexposed
overexposed's picture

All hail the MASH-EENS!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:57 | 4259544 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Well, for one (500+), you know everyone in Congress knew.

Merry Christmas.....I mean , Holidays!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:13 | 4259591 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

What?  Our "reprentatives" are faithful public servants...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:25 | 4259619 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

The Taper Explained

Here is how the taper works.

Fed buys fewer securities and fewer bonds.

Thereby reducing the flow of FRNs into the 'economy'

Thereby increasing the flow of FRN's into bonds and equities.

It's simple.

Still confused?

Okay, let's try again.

Supposed you are watering the garden.

You reduce the flow out of the hose.

Thereby increasing the rate that water saturates the garden.

Not getting it yet?

Okay, one last time.

You are peeing into the toilet. Or into a big bucket. Or even a jar.

After awhile, your flow begins to diminish.

Thereby increasing the rate at which you fill the toilet/bucket/jar.

Now it should be clearer how tapering increases the value of bonds and equities.


Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:44 | 4259669 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Well put.  In any world except ours the taper should have caused equities to drop but they got ahead of the crowd and forced a rally. Bet it doesn't continue tomorrow.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:21 | 4259727 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Ok.. so if I get this right , it’s like a large conical plastic nozzle firmly inserted up my bottom part that, which when removed feels like a tapering of some kind and should provide a sort of relief?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:34 | 4259748 Manthong
Manthong's picture

so.. as a nozzle what happens when they decide a deluge of liquidity is required ??

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 02:04 | 4259865 Four chan
Four chan's picture

its a good thing zh is on this because the sec is FUCKING asleep at the wheel.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:11 | 4259997 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

SEC is like the police.

they don't get behind the wheel or prevent bad drivers.

they show up after the crash.



Thu, 12/19/2013 - 06:20 | 4260078 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

SEC doesn't show up at all unless Martha Stewart made a few bucks illegally

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 07:30 | 4260113 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

The Taper Explained - Here is how the taper works.

Great analogy.  Better yet the real way it works:   As long as the FED RES can produce FRN for free, they will and we will all still be shaking our heads.  When, not if, the day comes when they can no longer create FRNs for FREE....... you look at your "stack" and say "thank god".   Until then you have to laugh and stick with others that understand this or you will go mad. 

Trying to convince your bro-in-law and others who just bought (signed his name) the new GMC Sierra loaded with the finest appointments will drive you nuts!!   

When the "day comes" bro-in-law can work for your new business of digging holes in the ground to put the bodies of those who wouldn't accept their place in the third world.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:03 | 4259558 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

What I'm wondering is whether the DOW +292 day was because of the joy of the return to fiscal responsibility, or for the joy of the remaining 87.5% of the "punchbowl" !

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:12 | 4259588 pods
pods's picture

The answer is much more simple than that.

It went up 292 because it can.

There is so damn much liquidity rolling around that place that all a big guy (with a gabillion in "reserves") has to do is throw out a big order before the release and they will get a stampede from some of the older, dumber algos.  Eddie Murphy and OJ futures were classy compared to what we have today.

Then they slip back out and crack the Bollinger.

To be around this den of thieves gets you what you deserve.

It will be a great day on earth when nobody listens to the government telling us how needed they are and we stop pretending that credit (created out of air and lent at interest) is money.


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:01 | 4259702 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture




Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:51 | 4260030 bozzy
bozzy's picture

Pitchforks and cranes soon please

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 06:23 | 4260080 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

To say it's artificial reality is no stretch. Anyone with even an inkling of the truth who isn't scared shitless must either have a much more shallow inkling than I, or vision fixed toward some point I'm unable to view. I do understand that it's really always been this way, artificial that is. The terrifying part comes in concluding that NEVER has it been so blatant, extreme, and comprehensive.

This 'bubble' isn't contained to the market, or even the financial system. Seems to me this 'bubble' encompasses very nearly ALL things. Fraud and corruption permeates the human construct of reality to the point of now fraud and corruption is ALL that remains. Truth of course still exist, but truth is now extremely dangerous and existing almost exclusively outside the bubble.

I tried to explain just the financial system, money creation (money is a LIE) yesterday to a couple of cognitively well equipped individuals at work. I felt like a fool even talking about it. As the words spilled from my mouth, my mind marveled at how silly and improbable the 'reality' of it actually is.

I wish I didn't know the things I believe I do.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:32 | 4260175 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

They probably think you're a wacko. Maybe all of us here on ZH are. After all ZH and the rest of the bears did miss this whole market rally that began in March of 2009. Almost a 5 year bull market now....probably the biggest of our lifetime. You can down arrow me but it's the truth. How many besides me would love to go back to march of 2009 with the SP at 666.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 09:08 | 4260225 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

I feel for you... the same freaking way.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 09:48 | 4260306 pods
pods's picture

You have reached a classic point that many of us here have reached. You know things and want others to know them too.  But when it comes out to someone who is clueless, they just look at you with a foggy look.

Think of how long it took for you to get your mind around this (fractional reserve banking, creating credit and pretending they are loaning you money, etc).  For me, it took a while of active searching and active learning to figure this out.

Now realize that a vast majority of people are merely wanting comfort in life, not reality.  Reality is on TV and they are called Reality shows.  

Everyone feels isolation, anger, frustration, depression (for me at least).  Just try and realize that you are ahead of 90% of eveyone else out there in terms of critical thinking and accepting reality. Also realize that you are never done learning and always entertain that what you "know" is incorrect. That is how you maintain thinking and avoid believing.  

Good luck, and rejoice, for you are way ahead of those around you.

As an aside, I ONLY speak about these things to those who are searching themselves.  Not to people generally. In this way, life really is like the Matrix.  People won't want to accept that their reality is false, and will fight to protect it.  And the older you get, the more difficult it is to change, as you move from accepting something as fact to the realm of belief.


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 10:14 | 4260410 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Well said pods.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:11 | 4259593 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Fiscal??  You mean Monetary.  And no, there is no monetary responsibility until they get the fuck out of the way completely and let the market pay me 5% on my savings.

And no, there was no joy, just delirium and short covering.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:17 | 4259950 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

....."gradual" return.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:25 | 4260163 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

50 seconds in algo time is an eternity

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:53 | 4259525 Vice
Vice's picture

Nanex simply is wonderful


Truth lies in the numbers

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:11 | 4259585 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"Truth lies in the numbers"

I'm so stealing that line.  Good one.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:19 | 4259609 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The significance is that people don't trade without knowiing what they are doing. Why would you bet millions on an uncertain outcome? You wouldn't. Obviously the FED leaked out what they were doing and someone front ran the market. It's immoral, but what the hell, the FED has been acting immorally the last 100 years and it doesn't seem to bother too many people.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:23 | 4259620 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

“Everyone sees what you appear to be, few experience what you really are.” 

Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:31 | 4259746 Peachfuzz
Peachfuzz's picture

"I don't mean to sound sleazy, but tease me, I don't want it if it's that easy." Makaveli the Dawg

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:53 | 4259526 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

A simple wealth transfer.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:54 | 4259528 arkel
arkel's picture

Don't worry. None of this will be looked into. In case you were wondering.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 01:42 | 4259842 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture



If you're implying that the SEC and federal prosecutors are lax on insider trading, you're wrong. The SEC brought 58 insider trading actions in FY2012 against 131 individuals and entities.  Over the last three years, the SEC has filed more insider trading actions (168 total) than in any three year period in the agency's history.* Busting traders for insider trading is exceedingly difficult because the vast majority of insider trading evidence is circumstantial. SRO's (self-regulatory organizations like the NASD and various exchanges) have market surveillance and enforcement operations, but making the connection between a company insider and a random trader who is in possession of material, non-public information is almost impossible without an informant. The Mark Whitacre's of the world are few and far between.  

In 2013, the SEC has had some huge profile victories. Prosecutors have gone after the largest bank in the United States (Chase just agreed to a $13B fine) and they've also effectively shut down one of the largest, most profitable hedge funds on Wall Street - SAC Capital. SAC's star trader and Steve Cohen's closest trader, Michael Steinberg, was just found guilty of insider trading today by a Manhattan jury. Cohen - maybe the biggest whale on the Street - is getting closer and closer to being check-mated by the Feds, as well. 

Should there be 10X more convictions and prosecutions?  Probably.  But at the same time, you guys decry a bigger government, so how do you square this?  You want everyone caught, yet you don't want the SEC to be operational.


By the way, Mark Cuban won his case against the SEC, and everyone in Texas cheered for him. 


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:57 | 4259981 cj51
cj51's picture

(cough) Bernie Madoff (cough)

exactly what is ur job at the SEC Cognac?


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:53 | 4260032 bozzy
bozzy's picture

This is a wind up right? Which syllable of "Nanex" is causing the problem?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 06:34 | 4260085 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

At least the SEC stopped picking their noses long enough to find out who bought those put options on the airlines before 911 right?

Go back to surfing porn and calculating your government pension.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:25 | 4260162 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Not to mention the long list of banksters who went to jail<cough>

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 09:28 | 4260262 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I would like to know who bought call options prior to the FED announcement.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:58 | 4260207 brightdayfin
brightdayfin's picture

Ok, so the SEC has some successes.  BUT, they are selective.

Consider Bernie Madoff, an RIA which raised $36,000,000,000 from victims:
1.  RIAs must file a monthly report to the SEC with their investments in inventory as of the end of the month.
2.  Every month, he sent statements showing stocks bought and ALL sold during that month.
3.  With nothing in inventory, no reporting to the SEC!
4.  AND the SEC didn't suspect anything? 

Not hard to imagine they might have been in on it!

Like many of the other alphabet government agencies, sometimes they get it right which helps their facade.

Also, what happened to the 300+ SEC investigations underway in WTC7?


"Incompetence or conspiracy?  Impossible to know without being on the inside."

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:37 | 4262187 nanex
nanex's picture

re: Mark Cuban. 


The SEC gave the crooks at a get out of jail free card so they could go after Cuban, not because Cuban did anything wrong, but because the prosecutor had a personal problem with his wealth. Read the damn rap sheet on Mamma - it's a freaking eye-opener. Why the hell did the SEC waste valuable resources and time on that case? The prosecutor and anyone involved in pushing that case forward should be looking for a job right now.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:53 | 4259533 max2205
max2205's picture


Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:56 | 4259541 vincent
vincent's picture

Lucky guess

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 22:57 | 4259546 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

coffee is for closers.........


Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:01 | 4259551 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Explodes higher at market highs on tightening (yes, it's tightening).  Yeah, that's sustainable.  Let's see, market ascent has been 70 degrees on the monthly, and now this ridiculous counterintuitive move.  Can you say "blow off"??

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:20 | 4259616 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I think this move by the Fed was a surprise. It certainly surprised me...and the market reaction was even more surprising. (don't buy treasuries, take stocks to the moon, gold is worthless. wow, the very definition of rational response.) The more interesting spike was the one many hours before the release. Obviously if you're not trading on inside information then you're not trading. "the first rule is that there are no rules. the second rule is remember rule number one." having said that the very definition of risk is "that which cannot be quantified by the risk division because the numbers are too big and move too quickly in both price and direction." (in this case higher.) of course the irony that hedge funds have been by far the worst performer since 2008 is not lost on me.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:10 | 4259717 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture


"I think this move by the Fed was a surprise."

Goldman, JPMorgan and others are the FED. This script is written on Wall Street and then handed to the FED. They are not "surprised" by the outcome, they wrote it.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:01 | 4259555 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

News flash! No one really cares anymore...

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:17 | 4259599 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

Literally no one cares. Does anyone you know even have a clue what the federal reserve is? Everyone this Christmas holiday should write IOU notes on a piece of paper and hand them to their loved ones. Write "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private." Make sure you draw a dead grandfather on the paper in teh best artistic way you can. Then wait for the response.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:56 | 4259690 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

When do you tell your beloved that they owe you interest on that paper you just gave them?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:02 | 4259563 happel
happel's picture

Thank goodness Mary Jo has this under control, folks. 


Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:03 | 4259566 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

They probably just had a REAL STRONG FEELING about what the statement would be, and felt compelled to act 50 seconds before the release.  Some people are just naturally lucky that way.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:07 | 4259569 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

They wouldn't do that.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:05 | 4259570 BadDog
BadDog's picture

everybody knows the dice are loaded, everybody rolls with their fingers crossed

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:38 | 4259654 Overfed
Overfed's picture

+1 for the reference to a Leonard Cohen classic.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:09 | 4259575 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

I think the decision was probably known and leaked days ago. Why do you think the Ryan plan appeared magically and was passed without a hitch? This is all orchestrated. Also all you only had to look aththe POMO schedule to know what they were preparing.

Regarding thebdecision itself, i am also sure copies of the decision were faxed to many across the trading desks in the country who pay well. But the question is how useful was the leak? The FED bought the 50 DMA within seconds

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:08 | 4259581 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Guys- Really it is just stop hunting algos, I seriously doubt anybody knew the direction it was just the side with the least liquidity................

I want to break a record for down arrows....................

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:09 | 4259582 The Wisp
The Wisp's picture

It's Quantum Physics, when you need the information Sooner than other people, it Just Appears

  nothing to see Folks Computers just think faster than you , get over it..  :)

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:13 | 4259594 JD59
JD59's picture

This was all planned and executed as planned. Uncle Benny was not going to leave the FED managing a falling market (hence 300 point rise), and then leaving the FED before taper has started.

Mission accomplished!

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:15 | 4259595 Rob Jones
Rob Jones's picture

It might be easier to ask who didn't know. Joe Retail (if he even exists anymore), that's who had no clue.

"It's a big club, and you ain't in it." - George Carlin

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:18 | 4259607 10mm
10mm's picture

"What Is Going On Here" Fraud Unabated.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:21 | 4259611 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

Tylers et al,

I am continually amazed by the collossal ignorance of people, such as the editor of the above, who have no actual experience with the dynamics of active cash and futures markets.  Over the years, as a local and off-floor trader I have seen countless instances of markets making - to the inexperienced eye - inexplicable movements.  With the advent of algos, how could the heretofore market jerkiness not be amplified both in time and price?

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:27 | 4259626 deflator
deflator's picture

Them that gets the new "money" first? Experience has nothing to do with being first at the trough... ask any little piggy suckling at the teat of a big ole sweatty 1200lb sow.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:25 | 4259630 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

what if your inside information is wrong?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 02:47 | 4259916 jballz
jballz's picture



is not a rock anywhere you cannot kick over to find a conpsiracy in zerohedgeland


never mind that there was no advantage to prepositiong if one were to obseve the market tanked on the release and then rallied, meaning anyone in early got a shittier fill than had they bought the news, and anyone short had to cover immediately to make any money, which they likely wouldn't do on the basis of a bearish release.

I am only responding to your post to say ZH is mostly a bunch of fucking circus clowns and morons, with a few intelligent people to make it tolerable. But mostly you are wasting your breath attempting reason. They just want blood and they dont care who's... run of the mill mob, will believe anything.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:40 | 4260026 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

jballz - you know very little. You are the fucking circus clown fuckstick.

Just reading you if then else regarding the pre, actual, then post movements.... illustartes clearly you know feckin nothin'.

Best to STFU.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:21 | 4259952 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

So, they're so fast, now, they can go BACK in time ?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:32 | 4260903 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

See! Over here! This hand, NOT THAT HAND, yes now youve got it right, see there is nothing in this hand, just like I told you, there's nothing to . . worry about... is there NOW WAIT  - STOP LOOKING AT THE OTHER HAND

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:26 | 4259631 Everyman
Everyman's picture

There comes a time when this all fails, and then these cheating motherfuckers will be drug out into the streets and beaten to death.


I am waiting for that day.  Then next day the machines gets unplugged.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:23 | 4259954 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Probably not.

The "Duck Dynasty" guy got suspended for saying he didn't understand homosexuality !

We'd need to drag 50% of the country out into the street and beat them. Which 50%?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:52 | 4259978 jballz
jballz's picture


yay then you anti-semitic knuckledragging paranoiac loons will be in charge, and then everything will be soooo much better.


People clear their books ahead of announcements. Algos do too. Post is written by one of the tylers who has never traded or at least never understood what the fuck is going on.

I guess that is where financial bloggers come from though.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:26 | 4259632 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

it wouldn't matter if you had the news a week before hand your interpretation would still be about 50/50 statistically.  


well if it was still a free market....  since that is obviously no longer the case because clearly this time is different and we have reached a new paradigm where we can keep interest rates at zero and print money / run our debt to infinity without recourse till the end of time, though the news still doesn't matter, it was about a 99.9999999% probability of today being an up day.  the remaining .0000001% is reserved for such things as if Yellowstone were to erupt catastrophically, a comet hit the earth or a solar flare knocked out the power grid in the US.   


wouldn't surprise me if we were small down tomorow to consolodate then not a single downtick till sometime in the end of Q1 14 when we are testing 2000 in the S&P.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:34 | 4259641 deflator
deflator's picture

Bet on it dude, this shit's goin' parabolic.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:43 | 4259659 silverstud
silverstud's picture

Must read paper by Goldcorp....

The emperor has NO clothes



Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:00 | 4259985 SolarSystem1932
SolarSystem1932's picture


Excellent material:

Starts around page 30

An allocation to actual physical gold owned with the safest counterparties in the world will help depositors hedge the not insignificant risk of keeping money on deposit in many banks today. It is important that one owns physical gold and not paper gold which could be subject to bail-ins.

Most here are aware of this, but the article should be coffee-table-accessible to guest.

Thanks for the info.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:41 | 4259660 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The stock, bond, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.

The markets continue to rise till all short positions in the market are covered and the majority of traders move to the long side. Once this is done the market falls till all long positions are closed and short positions undertaken. Then rinse and repeat. The price mechanism has little to do with the actual demand, supply, fundamentals or state of the economy.

Wed, 12/18/2013 - 23:47 | 4259674 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I'm sure glad I didn't get the memo early. I would mortgaged the house and shorted the S&P. (but since my house is underwater it wouldn't have mattered any way)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 00:05 | 4259711 Intellikon
Intellikon's picture

Not to ignore/diminish any probable news leaks from greased palms, but a pet theory around the office here is that some large algorithmic trading firm has figured out a way to read 'pre-sentiment' in markets..

Pre-sentiment is demonstrated in this experiment...

Data streams like twitter, tv, and raw NBBO could be used by an algorithm to predict how markets will react in advance of a Fed release.. and if some genius figured it out it would certainly explain this phenomenon



Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:36 | 4260022 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Intellikon - yeh they like to float the intuitve algo theory... just to take you off the scent of their insider tip off.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 01:03 | 4259788 christiangustafson
christiangustafson's picture

The tape since the 11/29 SPX high was so obviously a wave 4.

It even ran about .382 of the previous leg's length, in total time.  And last night was a full moon (low).  What more do you want?!

I front-ran the FOMC minutes.  You should have, too.


Funniest thing about today?  SPX up 30 handles ... BBRY off a nickel!  All hail the genius Karl Denninger!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 02:22 | 4259898 q99x2
q99x2's picture

FED software knew.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 02:52 | 4259930 dunce
dunce's picture

An odds maker could easily have predicted the feds  action in size and scope based on past behavior. 20 to 1 is not certainty, but it is a good bet.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 03:44 | 4259972 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Normal hedging ahead of the decision.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 07:41 | 4260118 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

And the crazy amount of trades that happened 50 seconds before the announcement didn't happen 150 or 1500 seconds before the announcement because...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:32 | 4260019 silverstud
silverstud's picture

15 January 2014 the Dow etc will implode..

The next stage of planned human slavery begins


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 07:07 | 4260099 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

A bears fantasy... too bad it probably won't happen.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 04:38 | 4260024 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

It works as designed - for the 1%ers and the sheeple.

Animals have smaller and weaker animals for meal.

That's how it works since there is life on this planet.

If you don't get that at some point - and don't act accordingly - you - rightly - meat too.

Commodities and bonds - right now - are "out". Stocks are "in".

For several reasons. The most important of it: governments and pension funds need desperately "income". Stocks to da moon is one of the easiest ways to achieve that goal. Who cares about the sheeple and inflation. Run away commodities though hurt the economy - so that is sorted out. As long as it works.

Above discussions (corrupt system) are completely waste of time. It's like arguing tigers and lions should not have meat for lunch. It's downright silly.

Go with the flow of the elephants and gorillas. Follow the footprints of the 1%ers and you will do well. Fight against them, argue against them, argue for the myth of justice and honesty - and you belong to the clowns and revoluzzers soon to be meat.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 06:35 | 4260086 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Hilsenrath knew...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:25 | 4260165 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i love a good conspiracy fact as much as anyone here but that fed announcement was going to be bought no matter what.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 08:45 | 4260193 HFBondsTrader
HFBondsTrader's picture

Actually, that was probably algos getting flat before the number

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 09:03 | 4260197 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

A major paper gold intervention started Tuesday, before the meeting.  There are volume patterns that disappeared in early July which have reappeared.  They have been going for a couple days now, so I think it is the real thing.  I posted some charts in July showing how to identify it.  It is pretty obvious.  Mainly it shows up as heavily increased overall volume and super increased night volume, when no one is there.  The change is night and day, literally like they throw a switch.  And I am pretty sure they are just turning on some algo boxes trying to sculpt paper patterns, create and then trip support and stops in off hours.   Everyone knew their roles long before the meeting ended.  Paper pricing is just a decision they make because they have printing presses.  They can print up any prices they want, but they can't fix the economy and they can't get their gold back.  We shall see if the gold market can take any more of this stress or if it breaks into a default.  

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 10:03 | 4260362 d edwards
d edwards's picture

With all the corruption and cronyism in gov't and big banks-the fix was in.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 10:26 | 4260452 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

As I watched the tick chart yesterday, first thing I thought was: "If you are going to buy a millioin, first you sell 500,000."

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:25 | 4260659 ZeroRights
ZeroRights's picture

I was witnessing this 50 second phenomena in the USD/JPY pair as well. I said to myself WTF!  

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:29 | 4260882 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Doesn't this happen EVERY TIME pre-FOMC announcement since the New Normal began. 


Sun, 01/05/2014 - 07:52 | 4301362 nje
nje's picture

I didn't mean to necro this comment thread, but i have witnessed evidence that is in part both against and in agreement of this threads thesis. i tried to register on the day this article was released, but my registration took this long to be approved.

on dec 18th, approaching 1400est, i was constantly refreshing the address: It was obvious that this location would be where the Fed's announcement would first appear publicly because of the url pattern made precedent of the previous fed announcements:,,

at each of those 4 locations, if you were to examine the last modified time of those files (right click on page -> view page info, in firefox), you would notice that all but the most recent were published at a time after 1400est, but before 1401est- never at, or very near, 1400est. i unfortunately dont have evidence of this next statement, it never occured to me to take a screenshot, but the first published edition of the most recent fed announcement took place at 14:00:51est. it was updated shortly after and now the modified time reads 14:15:16est.

what this means is that not only was the first spike of trades/sec shown in the fourth chart was a result of suspicious activity, but so was the second spike that happened at exactly 1100pst. the view page info function in firefox shows the upload time in its own time, not mine. and considering past upload times, the announcement is never published exactly at 1400est- therefore both spikes are either insider or manipulation.

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