This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
JPM's Quiet Scramble To Refill Its Gold Vault
As we repoted consistently, at times on a daily basis, one of the more memorable stories of the summer of 2013, was the rampant and furious depletion of gold (both eligible and - mostly - registered) stored deep in the gold vault of JPMorgan located under 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, since sold to a Chinese conglomerate (understandable considering China's insatiable appetite for the yellow metal in physical, not paper form). This culminated with some truly impressive multi-way vault rearrangements in which the other 4 Comex members would provide gold to JPM on an almost daily basis (see here and here). But while Chinese demand may explain the outflow of physical, what is head-scratching is the just as furious scramble by JPM to obtain gold in the past few weeks.
As persistent trackers of the CME's daily depository statistics update are well aware, over the past week, JPM has been accumulating an impressive amount of gold, and what is more curious, it has been precisely in increments of 64,300 ounces of eligible gold on a daily basis. Putting this scramble in context, two months ago JPM had only 181K ounces of eliglble gold. And yet, just today, the Comex announced that JPM's eliglble vault gold rose by almost that amount, increasing by 125K to a reputable 1.2 million eligible ounces.
JPM's total eligible holdings, and especially the recent surge, are shown below:
It bears pointing out that while eligible gold has been surging higher, JPM's registered gold has once again contracted, and as of today, it closed at its lowest ever: just 87K ounces of gold!
So with gold plunging to multi-year lows, is JPM just taking advantage of the "blood on the streets" and becoming the helpful bidder of last (or first) resort and replenishing its record low depleted inventory by taking advantage of below production cost fire sales, or... is something else going on here?
Inquiring minds want to know.
»
- 53358 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"a portion of my assets"
Agreed if you put small in front of "a portion".
If we are fucked we are fucked, gold is not going to help...
It depends on how 'fucked' fucked is.
Mad Max? Gold probably useless... though it might buy you some time with Tina Turner.
Anything higher up Maslow's Hierarchy, though, and there will be trade... and to trade efficiently you need money.
The value of gold is dependable of someone in charge deciding that gold is worth something? Do you really think Goldman, JP morgan, FED, US president are going to acknowledge gold? Why would they? Whether you like it or not, they call the shots, and belive me - they are never going back to a gold standard unless we are fuckedfuckedfuckedfucked. If we really get fuckedfuckedfuckedfucked gold wont matter anyway. In other words - its useless.
Well maby one other thing, if we get a real revolt it might be of use. But a revolt? Hahaha, sorry but noooo, not gonna happen. Sheeple are way to busy fighting on black friday.
The value of gold is dependable of someone in charge deciding that gold is worth something?
It can be... for instance, if TPTB decide a gold standard is the way to go, then the value of gold would rocket.
On the other hand, if TPTB are not in a position to determine what is money (but we have less than all-out collapse) , then, again, gold comes into its own.
If we go full-blown Mad Max, yes, you'd be better of owning an armoured personel carrier, a clean water source... and a lot of ammo.
Frankly if it's the latter then I'm outta here anyway, so it's not spmething I'm seriously preparing for. I have nowhere to park an APC, for a start.
But for all the (likely) scenarios between full blown global NWO hegemony, and Mad Max, well gold should do pretty well.
Who cares?
Nobody cares, go away.
China, India, Germany, Russia, Poland, Switzerland, Venezuela, Ecuador, Netherlands, Mexico, Finland, etc...
It's worth noting that JPM's 125k move to eligible came from Scottia and Manfra's registered stock, bringing total comex registered to 490k.
It is clear that the Chinese are happy to take all our gold off our hands at these prices. Likely many people are manipulating the price: the Fed to maintain the dollar, the Chinese to get a lower price, the bullion banks to prevent a run on their fractional reserves and Hedge funds to play both sides.
The question is why are we westerners willing to sell all our gold to China? Do we think this is the scam of the century? That gold won't be worth shit once we complete it's total demonitization? That the Chinese and Indians will be left holding an empty bag in terms of international power? That the they are clueless dupes in the scheme to make gold worthless?
Or are we the dupes? Are the Chinese taking advantage of a moment in time where the Fed and Treasury have underestimated the importance of gold to the future international monetary system? That once we wake up, gold will suddenly be much harder to get, so get it all now?
Or is there an understanding that we will let the Chinese build up a gold reserve? They lost their historical gold holdings to the Japanese and to Chiang Kai Shek who took what was left to Taiwan. The Chinese may never rule the world as some fear, but like it or not, they are a world power that is here to stay. So they need to be stable enough to function at that level, and gold gievs them additional credibility beyond the Yuan? Why not let them trade their dollar reserves for gold reserves?
As Jim Rickards so eloquently pointed out, the Chinese are no where near ready to have the reserve currency. The Yuan is still pegged to the dollar, it doesn't trade in FX markets, they don't have a bond market, and they will have to let 1000's foreign banks open Chinese based banks to facilitate world trade in Yuan, which must go through the Chinese banking system. However, the Chinese are already liberalizing the Yuan, and are striving to make it more of a reserve over time.
Gold is nothing compare to all the stuff chinese have bought. Forget about gold and start to think about everything else they have bought that is of value. What would you pay for an ounce of gold and why?
I'd pay the price being offered right now. Because it's money.
Go for it! Hope it makes a good investment fo you! And I hope I am not a looser for not putting every penny I have in gold. Maby as a small hedge in my retirement account.
You're not a looser than what?
Screw?
Ho's pussy?
Gold is useful for when I run out of toilet paper, lumber, beef and diesel?
You're not a looser, you are an idiot Mr. Archetype
Always wanted to be a happy idiot blissfully unaware. Still dont feel that way after reading your comment...
If exeters pyramid starts teetering without a solid base, they will swoop in with a new ultimate collateralizing asset at the core,
Well there are Chinese banks opening in many locations in South America. Down here it sure looks like the yuan is preparing to become a reserve currency.
What's most interesting is that the increase in eligible gold versus the new record low in registered gold. Remember, eligible gold is being held in trust for third parties and is not avialable to cover potential delivery requests. Registered gold is the only bullion available to satisfy delivery requests. This is of course in theory as I wouldn't put it past JPM to use any and all gold available to meet delivery requests and then just feed a bunch of BS data to the outside world about how much gold it really has. But at a record low of 87k ounces, you really have to wonder what types of deliveries they could support.
Another possiblity would be that JPM is encouraging their customers to purchase physical and store it at their facility for, and I use this term carefully, "safe storage". Once the coyote is watching the hen house, who knows what will happen to the gold and where will it end up. But don't worry JPM customers, Jamie has a direct lending facility with Big Ben and any potential request for your gold back will simply be covered with cash settlements.
Whatever is occuring, the dramatic increase in eligible gold (maybe just the result of JPM promotion efforts stating that they will actually pay you to store your gold with them) and very low registered gold levels indicate something is not right/in-balance with this picture. Time will tell but watch closely the GOFO rates, Shibor, and the continued on-slaught beatdowns of paper gold prices (and bearish positions) as these trends are all indicating some strain in the market.
Again, WHO CARES? How mutch would you pay for an ounce of gold today and WHY?
WHO THE FUCK CARES ABOUT YOUR BULLSHIT?
And why the fuck should ANYONE care about your pro-government/banker vomit?
I fuckin hate government and politics! Why would I love gold because of that? Please tell me? I need food. I need to protect myself and my family, I need medicine, I need water. and so on. Tell me why I need gold!
Apparently YOU don't. Why your constant badgering bad mouthing it? Sounds like a lying shill to me. Feel free to find another site which better suits your taste. May I suggest the Huffington post?
No, I DO think zerohedge is a great source of knowledge. Huffington post is only for social anthropology studies. But again, please tell me why I need gold. I am not trying to be provocative.
Sorry for my poor english.
Because it's real money. It has no counterparty risk.
Really? You dont think faith in gold is a counterparty risk in it self?
Faith is gold is not a counterparty risk, it is a valuation risk. Counterpary risk is when your asset is a liability on someone else's balance sheet.
Gold is not valued by how much there is of it. Its valued by demand. Lots of people want gold = price up. No one wants gold = price down. Its speculative in my opinion. Whats the fundamental value of gold and why? (trying to understand)
In times past, it was valued simply for its rarity and beauty. Since it was in such high and universal demand, nations used it to back their currencies. Once economies "outgrew" the nation's gold supplies, they left the gold standard rather than risk deflation (not good for the bankers). Thus we find ourselves at this point in history where gold still has nearly universal appeal but is no longer recognized by nations as a store of national value (although most central banks still hold it). The price used to be fixed but since the US left the gold standard its primarily been set by the futures markets which are leveraged 50:1 or more.
If you want an actual $ figure, it takes a man about a day of manual labor to find an gram of gold, on average. So $80/gm for 8 hours at $10 per hour. 32gm in a Troy ounce.
Very good explanation! I agree completely!
you can value it all you want as a commodity with supply and demand and whatnot, but what the goldbugs see (or at least the ones with the patience for fofoa) is the reinsertion of gold into the financial system as the core collateralizing asset (like Ts now), being valued as a financial asset (not a commodity) that shifts in value to facilitate international flows. Buying financial value at commodity value prices is the arbitrage.
Gold standard is obsolete technology and I dont think it would yield a payoff worth the fervor of a goldbug.
If you have 18 months to spare, read through fofoa's blog 2 or 3 times haha. free gold is the v2.0, and its not a libertarian utopia but a further entrenchment of the status quos vested interests tryin go hold on. This, and the fact that the money masters still hoard it, make me think it is worth considering outcomes where gold plays a larger role in the financial system when/if it cracks.
But there is no market, no liabilities and no collateral? So why is gold worth anything? Besides, as I said earlier - every ounce of gold in the entire world would barely pay off the cyprus defecit. So how much is gold worth? How much is it going to be worth in the future and why?
Yes you are right! My bad. Its a valuation risk.
But again I really cant see why gold is that impartant. Its like buying art or an old car, great hedge if you are crazy rich and need to diversify your assets. Otherwise, might aswell buy something you really need like food.
Gold is like a playstation, if you are rich and have nothing to do it amuses you. But if you are hungry and need food you dont care about it.
Gold is useful for preserving the purchasing power of your surplus earnings. If you don't have sufficient food, preserving wealth is secondary to finding your next meal. Once you have your next meal, weather you buy playstation or provide security for you future through gold ownership or currency ownership depends much on your viewpoint, understanding of assets/liabilties and the propensity to default on liabilities. When your asset is someone else's liability, you take the risk of their default. If your purchase of more playstations was at risk of default on someone elses liability, default isn't as important as your next meal was defaulted on and enjoyed by someone else.
Well put!
But then again, why wouldnt I invest in stocks (wich I think is a complete joke fundamentaly for some time now)? Or other fiat? As long as everyone (basicly) is being an idiot and think fb and twtr is worth whatever it is worth and gold keeps on falling it dosnt matter. And when it really does matter politicians are going to outlaw your gold like they did before, what are you going to do then?
Really? You dont think faith in gold is a counterparty risk in it self?
Do you understand the difference between debt-based money and (so-called) 'commodity'* money?
* yeah, regulars, I know gold isn't a commodity, but I'm trying to keep it simple for Biffy here.
Yes sir I belive I do. Lumber builds houses, copper makes excelent electricity wires, you drink water, you eat food, with guns you protect yourself, antibiotics cure pneumonia and so on. What does gold do?
You think gold is a currency, I dont. Does that make gold a currency?
GOLD IS COLLATERAL.
You want lumber, you want copper wire, you want to EAT?
Show me your gold.
Then, you can either trade your gold for copper wire, lumber of FOOD, or PLEDGE your gold for currency (euros, $, yen, yuan) and pay for your lumber, etc.
Now, you could do that with any commodity, but most people would say, I don't want to hold your 3000 2 x 4 x10s, or your bale of copper wire in exchange for food or medicine, or whatever, BUT, gold is highly valued, transportable, is well-regarded as COLLATERAL worldwide, so I will hold that, if you have any.
Ar you beginning to understand?
Hey! Nice sleight of hand! I see you've gone from equating the counterparty risk of gold and fiat, to quibbling about whether gold is a currency. Good work. You're showing some promise in your trolling.
So you're suggesting we use a lumber-based currency? Copper has been part of our currencies in the past but it's a bit too plentiful to make a sensible store of value. Water is a truly liquid asset (geddit? geddit?) but is worth even less per cubic meter than copper. Antibiotics come by prescription and (as far as I know) are not divisible, fungible, or uncorruptible, or difficult to counterfiet. They do have intrinsic value, true, but their quantity (like fiat) is theoretically unlimited. They'd make terrible money, but a useful barter item.
What makes gold a currency? Well.. depending on how you define 'currency' either i) government edict, ii) market demand, or iii) nothing. Governments mint gold coins, so - even though they're not marked at anything like their metallic value - it is, technically, currency. Irrespective of whether you think gold is a currency, however, it is undoubtedly a store of value par excellence, and could well become a currency again.
So now I've answered your question, how about answering mine? Do you know the difference between debt-based money and a 'commodity' money?
I am not an economist nor am I an amrecian, but i ll try to give you an answer.
Debt based money (bullshit) means that if i work you owe me unless you are working aswell in an equall amount. Money is credit created by central(y planned) banks "realeased" through mortgages.
Commodety money means I get something of intrinsic value for my work = oil for driving my car, food for eating, lumber for buidling a house and so on.
Where does gold fit in? Why does anyone need gold? There is only one differance between gold and fiat, gold cant be manufactured/printed. But why would I need gold in the future? New Bretton Woods system? I wish....
Commodety money means I get something of intrinsic value for my work = oil for driving my car, food for eating, lumber for buidling a house and so on.
Right! Now look up 'coincidence of wants'. Also look up the fact that people have, throughout history, valued gold. Even now, when governments have done everything in their power to suppress its price, and propagandise against it, it still commands $1200 an ounce.
Where does gold fit in? Why does anyone need gold? There is only one differance between gold and fiat, gold cant be manufactured/printed.
Exactly. So if - or, more likely, when - trust in the USD breaks down, what's left? Trust in the Yuan or Euro? Creditors are getting and are going to get shafted. Do you think in the future they';; want to be left holding an unbacked currency or one that is limited by its issuer's gold holdings?
It's true that if TPTB get their way and we wind up with a complete NWO-style world government, we'll all be on fiat forever. If you think they're capable of achieving this, then don't buy gold.
Jim,
Please allow me to enlighten you about antibiotics. They are of NO intrinsic value whatsoever unlike preppers seem to have espoused. I do not hoard them for any doomsday scenario. Antibiotics are of only use if you have knowledge of the bacteria infecting you and if it has a tested sensitivity.Trying to combat an infection without this knowledge is akin to firing into a dark room with a hundred people that are your friends hoping to kill one bad guy. Ultimately futile and most likely more damaging to yourself.
Bacteria are becoming so resistant now that, unless you have access to very potent, rare antibiotics that are highly dangerous in themselves, there is no way to combat them except in a hospital setting. Garden variety ampicillin fish antibiotic will be absolutely unequivocally useless. Now if one wanted to hoard antibiotics and sell them at ridiculously high prices to some freaked out panicked prepper when all hell breaks loose, there may be some money to be made there. In that case, don't worry about the expiration. It's the magical properties that are the selling point. Just my professional 2 cents.
Miffed;-)
Hi Miffed, thanks for that.
Are anti-biotics really that useless outside a clinical setting? I knew we were well on our way, and I'd heard what I thought were scare stories, but wow...
But the kind of infection the average prepper is worried about - you know, a gut wound sustained while killing a wild boar using your bare hands kinda thing - are A/B's useless for that too?
My dear Jim,
I lurked here a year before joining because I figured a microbiologist would have nothing to contribute to a financial blog. Then I discovered my niche after a few prepper comments here. Standard arsonal antibiotics are RAPIDLY becoming useless. Most Drs are skipping them and are picking the bigger guns right off the bat. There even bringing back Colistin a horribly dangerous antibiotic that was shelved because of its side effects to fight some of these new strains. There are NO antibiotics in the developement pipeline as I speak. If they started today it would take years to bring to market. Thirty years ago Klebsiella ( gram negative rod) was only innately resistant to ampicillin. Now it's often PAN resistant. GNRs are on the horizon as the future big killers like MRSA was a few years back. But we had Vancomycin for MRSA ( starting to be resistant to that now). There is NOTHING to treat these new GNRs and they will kill many people.
For the boar gored prepper, I would suggest cleaning the wound very well with alcohol and betadine. If deep, debride and keep open to the air to avoid anaerobic abscess and pray very very hard. Anyone with good clinical skills in field injuries would be invaluable here like a corpsman. I'd be useless because I require technology to do my job. Maybe a few of those cantankerous peppers with iron constitutions would mange to pull through! ;-)
People think those who own the gold own the world. The sad thing for me is I know better. The microbes do.
Miffed;-)
Thanks! xxx
I always enjoy your posts, BTW :-)
My pleasure always.
Please duel with Flak again sometime! That was sooooo much fun. Sorry, Im a bad bad girl. ;-)
XOXOXO
Miffed;-)
Gold has been money through thousands of years. So has silver. Their value is driven by rarity, the human cost to extract it from the earth, and valuation in society. Gold can gain or lose purchasing power, but historically, purchasing power has been relatively constant. No fiat currency has maintained it's purchasing power through time when the quantity could be detached from the human cost to extract it. Gold quantity is set by human cost to extract it, fiat quantity is set by decisions of others to maximize their wealth to the detriment of all others.
Lumber perishes through time. Houses deteriorate. Food spoils. Antibiotics have a shelf life. What does gold do? It preserves your purchasing power so you can exchange it for these fungible goods in the future.
Again, WHO CARES? How mutch would you pay for an ounce of gold today and WHY?
Easy one, First=Insurance,Second=lowest price in nearly 2yrs,Is that enough for you?,or how about the 170 Trillion in debt the US is in?.IF that doesn't satisfy you you're hopeless.
"First=insurance",
if you live in America I really DO get this! But then again, they might ban it or confiscate it. How do you price in that risk?
"Second=lowest price in nearly 2yrs"
Its seriously tempting! BUT in a speculative manner.
"or how about the 170 Trillion in debt the US is in?"
Does it matter when every one is in debt? Again, if you live in america gold might be a good hedge but I do think every currency is basicly screwed anyway.
Not everyone is in debt. Not everyone spent their income faster than they earned it.
I have huge respect for Zerohedge and I have learned loads from this site, but this gold bullshit is destroying every ounce of credibility. Seriously, cant you see this?
Finally... someone with sense.
ARCH and FM. No problem with your comments as you are free to express your opinion. However, you would probably receive more credit if you provide a little more content and support for your positions. These types of posts, whether on ZH or another site, are of little value to most parties really trying to gain a better picture on the markets and economy. My post was designed to address why each level of gold holdings was moving in different directions and what this could possibly mean. So whether you invest in gold (which a number of ZHers do) or don't, the point is to provide information, thoughts, and comments that help educate and inform (as oppossed to just ranting about whether gold has value or not).
I'm listening and really intrigued as to your opinions on what you should own and why rather than just bashing an asset class such as PMs because, well gold has what value again? I could argue the same about government bills and bonds as why would anyone own these when the interest rate is so low and most importantly, the bills and bonds are backed by no real asset/collateral or cash flow other than a promise by the US Goverment to repay them. At least bank loans are secured by real assets than can be used to repay the loan in the event of default. As for the government, just the threat of asset confiscation and/or tax increases (both which should do wonders for the economy and value of USD).
So state your case and position and we'll listen but providing constant rants with no real support has little or no value to ZHers like myself.
Arrow up! First and foremost - I appolagize for not making a serious case to begin whith (drunk and angry)... And big thanks for answering in such a serious maner considering my provocative approach.
Its not really gold that bothers me, its the entire so cold market. I have been (trying) to daytrade for a couple of years now and it doesnt seem to work. And really, thats fine by me, I really didnt expect anything else. But what I do get upset about is biases, I might be wrong but I do think that gold is a big bias on zerohedge. I truly respect the critical approach that the Tylers bring to the readers, most of us get to read analysis thats only applied for big banks and institutions and thats whats great with this site. But then again, why is the gold covarage so biased? Why is not gold a scam? Thats my basic question. I Understand that its a sensative matter to most people here but someone has to ask why gold really is so important, and most importantly, why it is going to be a good investment in the future.
Again, sorry for my poor english.
Maybe I can help, gold is priced in dollars (in your case, choose your fiat, as you imply non-American)...yes?
The answer is yes.
But what is golds value in fiat? Its value (priced in fiat) has gone up steadily over the centuries...yes?
Yes.
What does that say about day trading in fiat which always loses its value unless you chase "the next big thing" to restore the value you had at the start?
Plus the churn of commissions & taxation of your newly aquired fiat, if fortune smiles.
A mouse on a treadmill...been there...done that.
Maybe I can help, gold is priced in dollars (in your case, choose your fiat, as you imply non-American)...yes?
Yes!
But what is golds value in fiat? Its value (priced in fiat) has gone up steadily over the centuries...yes?
Yes but whats the point? Whats gold worth tomorrow and why? (Again trying to understand) Why would gold prices rise in a deflationary environment (inflation will soon be over because everyone have borrowed as much as they can). Wage inflation? Why? Which companies are hiring new people? Rising sallarys? Nope, not yet... Coming soon?
What does that say about day trading in fiat which always loses its value unless you chase "the next big thing" to restore the value you had at the start?
I am a bad trader, period, and shouldnt be involved in the finacial markets in short timeframes. (Not long timeframes either, right now at least...)
Plus the churn of commissions & taxation of your newly aquired fiat, if fortune smiles.
A mouse on a treadmill...been there...done that.
Yupp, no use. Using my time for productive work in the future. :)
"I am a bad trader, period, and shouldnt be involved in the finacial markets in short timeframes. (Not long timeframes either, right now at least...)"
You cannot win against this casino.
I can tell you, there will be times (I had mine) where you will look like a rock star, the kudos will come in fast & furious for outsmarting them...feeding your ego onward. Even when you go 60-40...80-20 even,..you will eventually sit down at your software program to do your taxes & expenses/loss/gain and then...just do this once for me...
Think about your time, it also has value. Maybe you don't value it like I do...but it does have value and always will.
Gains & losses, good luck on writing your time off ;-)
Couldnt agree more! I have stopped trading entirely. For the last half year I have basicaly only spent time with my family = happiness! :)
You are certainly playing a role on ZH tonight. First of all, you are leading on the community by acting ignorant. Secondly, you are definitely far wealthier than the humble father/once day trader you stated you are. Lastly, quit pulling our strings before you land yourself a grenade and blow your bridges. This site is filled with land mines.
*Land mines as in "role play" users and others who spread false information. Money is a viscous addiction to the mind that squeezes morality dry.
Predators cloaked in the background only to appear as posters like you and the rest of the them. People here are being bamboozled at times.
gold has the longest history as money, a unit of value and account if you will. why is this? personally I attribute this to the majority of humans having what I call the "magpie" gene, it's shiny and they like it. for the present time, and the forseeable future, it will be money again. when the cheap oil goes the developed world will be lucky if we only revert to 19th century living standards. by the way, the german AND us military estimate that 2014 - 2015 is the "cliff" for cheap oil.
Why specifically is "cheap" oil going to disappear in the next year, or the next 10 years for that matter?
I'm sorry if this is a dumb question, and is obvious to everyone here.
The low hanging fruit is gone. That's why they're drilling in the ocean a mile deep and getting oil from tar sands. It's becoming more expensive to get the oil remaining. Cheap oil is what has made this world prosper. As peak oil is hit so is peak prosperity.
As I understand it, the Middle East, especially the Saudis, are the ones most replete with this easy to obtain oil.
So you are saying their sources are drying up? Within a year?
You're trying to extract wealth without being productive and without investing in productive activities. That doesn't work for those who are not on the inside track. It's no surprise it doesn't work. Day trading failed in 2000 when dot.com went dot.bust. Investing in gold will fail for you since there are no get rich quick plans for outsiders.
I see you're still alive
Agreed!
Arch. Appreciate the professional response and your questions are both appropriate and insightful. There is no question that a bias on ZH is present with gold as well as negative views on Big Ben (most well deserved), the lack of transparancy with reporting, the biases in MSM (again, well deserved), etc.. I'm not going to deny that nor would most parties. What I'm most interested in is the most unbiased, complete, and accurate reporting of all data, information, etc. to make informed investment decisions (rather than trading decisions). I learned long ago that attempting to outsmart or trade TPTB is basically pointless (as they have become masters and experts at transfering wealth as oppossed to creating wealth). If I had pursued a trading strategy, I would most likely be relegated to drinking Mad Dog 20/20 on the weekends.
And BTW, I've been there and done that with the quick response when trading is not going my way and that bottle of Zin turned into two. A couple of years ago, I learned to "let go" with the day to day fluctuations and focus on long-term, structural problems embedded in the economy and just how much damage has been done. To provide an example, please think about this:
MSM has been promoting the so called rebound in housing. Ok, I get this but let's look a little closer. What I need to understand is how much of the new housing is centered in multi-family rental properties versus actual single family properties that could possibly be offered to what's left of the middle class. Based on my initial review/evaluation, the numbers are skewed towards rental units which is very concerning for the following reasons:
- First, rental properties do not allow the renters to accumulate wealth or appreciation in the property. This transfers to the owners (i.e., wealthy).
- Second, renters generally are not as interested in spending money to improve the property which would only end up with the owners. Thus, a potential drag on the economy.
- Third, renters are subject to esclation clauses with annual rents whereas homeowners that have 30 year fixed mortgages get a set payment. Further, each mortgage payment includes a principal reduction that acts as somewhat of a forced savings plan (even if small at first). Also, let's not forget about the tax savings with the interest deduction.
- Fourth, MSM continues to reference the fact that the consumers have "deleveraged" but this is not 100% accurate. On the surface, a consumer that rents may not have techical debt (so it looks like their debt load is lower). However, when obligated rent/lease payments are factored into the equation, the consumer may in fact be even more in debt now that before the crisis.
I could go on but the point is, it is very difficult to find thorough, accurate, complete, and timely economic data that really lays out the facts on which to evaluate and base a decision. Most sites tend to skew information to one side or the other in order to convince that their position is correct. The American way I guess but very confusing in this day and age of attempting to sort through mounds of information and data and make some sense of it (in lightening speed).
An one final point relates the the so called "economists" providing their views in today's market. I really don't pay much attention to these parties as I believe they are focused on evaluating data from the yesteryear that is not really well suited for today's rapid fire environment. They focus on job growth numbers when in fact they should be focused on the quality of the job (including pay, security, benefits, advancement opportunities, etc.). I could provide other examples but I'm becoming exceedingly frustrated with these parties that are stuck in 1990's theories which no longer apply today. As usual, the economists are the last ones to arrive to the party.
As for gold, I'm tired and just came home from a holiday party so I won't present my case this evening but will look for a window tomorrow to provide a summary perspective. In the mean time, please keep posting and asking questions as the more people get engaged and challenge the establisment, the more real facts will come to light.
Sorry about the long rant and please stay in touch. There's nothing like some good discussions to get the juices flowing.
in 1964 a silver quarter would buy a gallon of gas. that same quarter will still buy a gallon of gas today, but it will take 14 new quarters for that same gallon. gold retains purchasing power in the same vein.
Also in 1972 a silver or today's' pretend quarter would buy a gallon of gas
And guess what... no one will ever truly know what is going on.
Who cares... just buy it now.... all you can get.
It's a fantastic gift that these low levels!
The goldsmith's receipt is worth ZERO if the goldsmith is out of gold...
That Archetype is quite a loud asshole, isn't he?
Sorry... A bit funny though being called a loud asshole among americans. I am swedish, we are known for being quite and angry. And shitty ikea furniture of course... :) (made in china)
Address his questions instead of calling names.
Dimon. Fire monkey- a genius of creative power if good, the most evil fucking trickster incarnate on earth if bad, 2016 is gonna be one for the history books I have an ugly feeling. Good luck all and stop buying all the 380 I need some for my girlie.
http://youtu.be/0fszAH5aP54
11.11 haha typical
is this just year end shifting of positions or is Dimon changing direction on gold. hmmmm I think its just annual position adjustments.
"OMG, Dimon, we are out-of-gold!"
"Damn. Crash the price! Maybe nobody will want any. Call the Chinese again. Beg more this time!! Offer them all of California!!"
If they are going to take a run at the June low, its likely to happen withen the next 6-8 hours. Either a slow chipping away or wait for a very quiet period and hit the bids with an outragous order. I don't think all these theories about end of year short covering will come to fruition. I know the short side is massive at the moment but as has been seen in the past it can get even massiver. Many may have covered into weakness after the Fed meeting already. Low in June 2014 now looks the most likely scenario. probably sub $1000.
I've shorted miners and you've turned into a rabid anti-goldbug - surely the bottom is near :-)
Plenty of bulls left to turn bearish. Plenty.
Look for the dumping of massive shorts (and a rising price) before the tax year ends.
Sorry for being uncongenial (thank you translation) but I have to say that I am a bit dissapointed about the answers. I really thought someone could tell me why I should own gold...
It is honest money that has zero counter party risk. It is a store of value against currency debasement (inflation) and provides insurance in a monetary crisis (hyperinflation, depression). How is it hard to understand that?
It's quite simple to understand, BOP.
He's just trolling (look at the number of combative posts).
Once he got called out for not adding any value here or providing a basis for his rants, he crawled up in his cute kitten pose and claimed to be drunk and foreign.
Petulant child.
Not in a cute kitten pose, still drunk and definately not trolling. And about being foreign, you must have noticed? Child, I wish...
Honest money is sitting in your bank account if interest rates rise above the rate of inflation (which is happening now).
Are you referring to the 10 yr rate? It's hard to know the true rate of inflation. But it's probably higher than CPI.
Valid answer but a bit to simple for my taste. Dosnt mean I am right though.
Outside of it's "store of value" as one of it's most important characteristics, nobody on this thread has brought up it's other essential uses.
The MSM did a story almost 8 or 9 years ago about an American Company in Colorado that shipped all of it's purchased and donated used computer equipment declared as obsolete junk for enormous profit to a small southern Chinese town where all of the gold on the motherboards were stripped off using very corrosive and toxic chemicals that were not only affecting the workers using them, but the run off to the surrounding areas where water was also collected near it's operations.
Needless to say it would be interesting to find out if that practice is still going on 9 years later. I bet not.
http://www.gold.org/technology/uses/
simple: dollar insurance.
"Blood in the Streets?"
Are you seriously kidding me?
The only thing going on in the gold market is a retest of the late-June lows just under $1200.00.
This could be a major long term low.
If not, keep the powder dry for $1000.00.
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. This current weakness in gold is an incredible opportunity.
In the new normal the best foundation for an investment portfolio is a 1 oz. gold coin.
they can have my gold
when my corpse floats to the surface
clutching a 400 oz good delivery bar
in each of my boney dead hands...
when it comes to skippers
and gold holding boating accidents
we all go down with the ship
I don't think you'll float holding all that gold!
Sorry guys, to late for me right now AM 04:15.
Tried to pick a fight, worked quite well but I think I need to be prepared better next time. :) (and sober)
Happiness and prosprity to you all!
Michael Tellinger presents in entertaining fashion at the Global Breakthrough Energy Movement (BEM) conference in 2012.
Watch with an open mind, as the topic of gold comes out of left field as a front and center part of the discussion.
I never saw it coming.
Worth the watch...grab some popcorn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-ge7Xm-CfTY
i thought there was more money and security in brass n lead..given the the demand, a pallet of ammo may get you further in a shtf situation than gold...oh yeah , ass wipe is worth stocking too. Gold is not purtty with brown all over it.
next project\trade gold to make: alcohol distillery
JPM is China's US buying agent. Look for China to own the COMEX soon. They realize they cannot control the physical price without controlling the paper market. Their need for Chase's vault directly across the street from the NY Fed vault will soon be revealed. The fiancial news headlines in 2014 will be dominated with "China, gold, and dollar."
There are a lot of good pro v con arguments here.
I am a multi-generational PM holder. Collection started in 1880s by forefathers.
PMs have held value through man's "civilized" history. I see no reason not to continue to hold, or in my case, continue to numismatically collect.
I might only suggest a diversity of PM with some Pt and Pd.
Taking a 'lead' from Ferfal, I would also suggest an investment in Pb.
21,392 kg or 754,585 oz delivered on Shanghai Exchange last night. That's 1% of the world's annual production snapped up in one night.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2000/hr8u.png
They did 19,894 kg last Friday.
http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/sge_price/sge_price_daily/10989.htm
WHOSE MONEY are they using ???????
did the Germans ever get their gold....
"IF YOU LIKE YOUR HUNDRED DOLLAR BILL
YOU CAN KEEP YOUR HUNDRED DOLLAR BILL"
it is an absolute lie that the gold in the chase "vault" and the gold in the fed vault are ONE AND THE SAME.....and have a chocolate core (we all know its tungsten)... what was the comment about gold bars being sent to switzerland to increase the purity?? prior to delivery to the chinese... the swiss are famous for their chocolate
we are printing new high tech hundred dollar bills to take the 50% counterfeit c notes in circulation out of the hands of the cartels, iran, russia, n. korea and china...
gold bars can be printed on 3d printers and are therefor of no monetary value unlike the fed notes... which have value
Everyone, wake up.
How do you get increments of 64,300 exactly?
Because it is a paper entry and not a vault entry.
Jesse has pointed this out and he is correct http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/
There is only paper gold.
Paper entries are why the Comex has added that disclaimer that they are basing their numbers on what JPM says.
Remember, how can you tell a banker is lying? His lips are moving.
http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/currency_wars_chi...
Convinced one of my relatives to get some today. First entry ever for them and a nice 5 digit start.
I need to express a few thoughts I've had recently about gold, and this seems like the most on-topic place. So here goes...
A few days ago in a ZH message I said that it is likely JPM and the predators-that-be will [gradually or completely] stop manipulating gold downward just after the end of 2013. They will have given gold, silver and precious metals a big fat black eye in the eyes of everyone not a firm advocate of precious metals by thoroughly smashing the 12 year price uptrend. This is why they will make sure the price stays down until 2013 is behind us, because most people typically consider and quote price performance for calendar years.
But they have caused serious dislocations in the paper versus physical markets, and sent enormous quantities of physical gold and silver to China and emerging markets. They have largely emptied a great many vaults in the process. They might be able to keep this up for another year... or they might not have access to enough gold to pull that off. In any case, on balance, seems reasonable to assume they will call it quits after 2013 ends, or at least reduce their efforts to times when the price starts to go exponential (like it was in 2011 when they ramped up their manipulation like crazy).
So here and elsewhere we find that JPM is loading up its vault with gold big time... and very, very quickly.
Now, the normal behavior of predators-that-be like JPM is to load up on something they know is about to be manipulated higher (or just certain to explode higher naturally because manipulation downward is [mostly] ended). So we shouldn't be surprised JPM is loading up in order to make a killing. Other articles claim JPM has also sucked up boatloads of highly leveraged futures contracts to buy gold and silver too.
Now we must do our mental due diligence.
While this scenario is perfectly logical, perfectly sensible, and entirely based on the real situation in physical markets... this scenario is also what we want to happen. One must be very careful to buy into one's own hopes, no matter how sensible they may be.
So, in this spirit, consider the following.
JPM has been able to accumulate a lot of gold at super low prices (near $1200). JPM also seems to have acquired quite a lot of gold futures contracts at similarly super low prices. This is extraordinary... that JPM can get sooooo enormously long while the prices remains sooooo enormously depressed. This certainly smells like a setup of some kind (and makes me wonder who is doing the dirty work of keeping the price down for JPM recently).
Now, if the price of gold takes off, JPM wins huge. However...
If you were one of the predators-that-be, and you wanted to really smack the holy crap out of gold and silver at this point in history, what would you do?
Well, if they are able to accumulate a huge pile of physical gold and long futures contracts on gold at super low prices...
what happens if they dump them all at once on low volume?
That's right. They completely blow the price through the floor. They take out several levels of support, and trigger all sorts of forced selling because a great many of us morons still buy with a lot of leverage (not me, but some still do).
Now... let's face a couple facts.
#1: This has been their normal modus-operandi.
#2: These holidays include some of the lowest volume days.
Sooo... I hope everyone understands the FLIP side of this setup. The predators-that-be could absolutely CRUSH their enemies (lovers of real, not fiat) by throwing gold over the cliff. This is just the kind of xmas/newyear present the predators-that-be would love to jam up their enemies butts.
-----
Okay, I'm not convinced this will happen. As I said, there are a lot of reasons to believe the JPM is just setting themselves up to make astronomical profits on the end of massive manipulation. And there are a lot of reasons to believe the predators-that-be don't want to attempt another year of this manipulation, for fear they cause a run on physical, and get blown out of the water.
So... the truth of the matter is... we can't tell.
This could be JPM setting themselves up for astronomical profits like insiders always do before a huge trend change...
... or ...
This could be one final smash in the face before letting gold and silver rise...
... or ...
They could intend to attempt one more year of this manipulation.
Apply your own judgement.
-----
But if they do implement a super-smash-down this holiday... I'm loading up on highly leveraged gold and silver options. I don't do this kind of thing... I love my reality real and physical. But... that opportunity would be just too juicy to ignore, so this is one time I'd put maybe 10% of my savings into a wild "roll the dice" bet.
But that's just me.
Well HonestAnn - I like your thinking. This has been China's game plan except they have been doing it on a smaller level dumping on low volume while we in the States sleep. I read about it someplace on Zerohedge but can't find the link.