Philly Fed Misses; Employment And CapEx Outlook Collapses

Tyler Durden's picture

For the 2nd month in a row, Philly Fed missed expectations (printing at 7.00 vs 10.00 exp) holding close to 7-month lows. Prices Paid dropped the most but it was the outlook sub-indices that are the most concerning with the surveyed expecting a big drop in the average workweek, the number of employees and a drop in New Orders and Shipments. Add to that a plunge in expectations for CapEx to 9-month lows (amid its biggest 3-month drop in 5 years!) and all-in-all, it's not as pretty a picture as Bernanke painted about the rosy horizon...




As Capex outlook collapses...

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fonzannoon's picture

Nice, couple this news with new home sales and jobless claims and it is a nice way to keep that 10yr from overheating.

Nothing like central planning.

NoDebt's picture

It's just a very long series of incredibly improbable coincidences that your over-active imagination is weaving into some kind of conspiracy.  Nothing more.

WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Philly Fed Cheese Dick Sandwich (filling but without all the facts)

Stuart's picture

no worries, the BLS and their puppet masters will just plug the employment numbers to whatever they deem appropriate to their needs on the next report.   Who needs the truth, we can't handle the truth.

Headbanger's picture

No hot soft pretzel for you !!  For TWO year!

Stoploss's picture



NoDebt's picture

I have a feeling you're going to get a lot of mileage out of that comment the next few months.

aVileRat's picture

Right on schedule. Nobody should have been shocked on this board by the move in Taper or this Comicbook story arc.

Jan taper, Feb revision. We still have yet to see the net effect from the Annual payroll rebalancing. When they slip that 'revision' into the print, expect to see a massive adjustment in BLS expectations.

KB Home will likely lead the whole sector bad.

Data also has yet to take into account the SPX bellweather revisions this week (this rate creep is likely PIMCO & the bond guys making good on their promise to begin their migration from the T10 wasteland this quarter). Ford and their downstream manufacturing weakness was in line with what the oil distillate & driving numbers were flashing since October. Big question now is WHO is buying all those GM cars, and WHAT are they doing with them if they are NOT driving them ? 

Ukraine will be a Trojan horse for Russia. That 35B stealth bailout of their banking sector will cripple the Rus foreign reserves while killing any goodwill with the Ukr. people. not to mention placing LRCM's near Germany & Poland will make for a very fun 2014 for wargamers.



Sudden Debt's picture

Just like the wages of those public servants during "the shutdown"...

they'll make up for the lost printingfrency pretty soon... X2

Sudden Debt's picture


Headbanger's picture

Yeah.. You mean gliding along a soft patch of ice right into the frigid water!

buzzsaw99's picture

Time for more levered buybacks, it's bonus time again! ho ho ho

Dr. Engali's picture

Damn did I say 75 billion a month? I meant to say 125 bad.

ArkansasAngie's picture

The CONgress will have to get in on the act for that to be true.  Gotta have a budget deficit to generate treasuries for the FEDury to buy.  

Of course they could start offering grandmas student loans so they can get a job at Walmart.

Al Huxley's picture

I'm pretty creating the necessary deficit won't be a big problem.  In the worst case they can just donate a few hundred billion to their favorite sponsors and lobbyists -instant deficit.

rosiescenario's picture

......why "or"???

Lets do both in case one of them doesn't produce big enough deficits.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Deficit funding is only part of it.  The existing debt still needs to be serviced and liabilities still need to be funded.  So I guess the question is, is the interest on existing debt going down?  Is the cost of future liabilites going down?

Tick tock motherfuckers.

SDShack's picture

That's the key isn't it. But with the fed controlling 1/3 of the bond market now, and continuing is's bond buying, although at a slightly lower rate, the real question is what happens when the Fed controls 51% of the bond market? That will effectively render the bond vigilantes powerless and ZIRP will be the defacto rule forever. This will neutralize the future liabilities threat that could blow up with any rise in interest rates. It's really not hard to think this is their plan when you step back and stop thinking like a true investor, and start thinking like a sociopathic banker. It's the only strategy that makes the NWO possible. Do I really think the Fed can pull this off? Well, I didn't think TPTB would be able to extend and pretend this long, so I think the answer could very well be yes. The only thing that could still blow this all up is the "unexpected" crisis. But since the Fed has such a stellar track record at avoiding bubbles, I doubt that THEY are worried. But like all sociopaths, their hubris will eventually be their undoing, but it might be a very LONG time before it happens.

Al Huxley's picture

I don't think this is a problem.  After all, if the FED needs to kickstart the market they can just taper some more.

LawsofPhysics's picture

The fed will "taper" in so much as they can cover the cost of any new issuance.  They don't own 100% of the "market" (and America) yet.

GeezerGeek's picture

It is never a problem as long as the POG can be smashed. Obviously they learned from Volcker; must control the price of gold.

replaceme's picture

I'm late to the party, this is all bullish, right?

Rukeysers Ghost's picture

Bullish? Haven't you heard? This is the best economy there has ever been since last month. Now go to Walmart and buy as much Chinese junk as you can. Your govt' is relying on you to do your part.

SDShack's picture

It's the best economy there has ever been that still needs $75B in monthly stimulus from the Fed...fixed it for you.

orangegeek's picture

More macros that show how shit it is out there.


Much thanks to the banksters for monetizing debt, buying everything that moves and driving markets to record highs.


The world appreciates your deceptions and sincerely hopes that you all die slowly and in as painful a way as possible.

starman's picture

Com on now, people are raking in it in on the market friend of mine just called me chicken little after he went head first in to stocks while I parked my cash

sbenard's picture

So one day after the big taper announcement, this quadruple whammy of bad news will send stocks to new record highs on optimism that the taper is now H I S T O R Y!

This is just more evidence that a great reset is coming!

And so Yellen will soon INCREASE the debt monetization program, we'll have deflationary period, following by hyperinflation, just as Mulroney predicted!

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

This thing is going biblical.

Watch Emerging Markets.

Maybe last April was just a trial run.

Bernanke has pulled away the teat.

If easy money was enough for capital markets, they never would have QE'd in the 1st place.

Got news for you.

Tapering is tightening. Anything not easing, is tightening.

Symbolic only you say?

Look at the 5 year. It's the short end that should have you in diapers.

Look at Emerging Markets.

Or close your eyes and BTFD. It has worked for years. What can go wrong?

The FED is Omni-Potent, right?

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Tapering is tightening." -  And if rates go negative?  In many cases they already are.  Can you say "bail-in"?  Not sure I agree with your thesis.

enloe creek's picture

why some sneaky devil might want to bankrupt everyone except banks so that a deflationary collapse occurs during which time all relativly attractive assets will be obtained on the cheap so just don't own anything and you will be fine

yogibear's picture

Taper was just a jesture. It was so little it meant nothing.

Soon the Federal Reserve will own 50% plus of the US debt.

With the Fed's mark to fantasy accounting they can lie all they want. One huge Ponzi.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

 75 billion a month + infinity = 85 billion a month + infinity