Philly Fed Misses; Employment And CapEx Outlook Collapses

Tyler Durden's picture


For the 2nd month in a row, Philly Fed missed expectations (printing at 7.00 vs 10.00 exp) holding close to 7-month lows. Prices Paid dropped the most but it was the outlook sub-indices that are the most concerning with the surveyed expecting a big drop in the average workweek, the number of employees and a drop in New Orders and Shipments. Add to that a plunge in expectations for CapEx to 9-month lows (amid its biggest 3-month drop in 5 years!) and all-in-all, it's not as pretty a picture as Bernanke painted about the rosy horizon...




As Capex outlook collapses...

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Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:19 | 4260630 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nice, couple this news with new home sales and jobless claims and it is a nice way to keep that 10yr from overheating.

Nothing like central planning.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:22 | 4260650 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's just a very long series of incredibly improbable coincidences that your over-active imagination is weaving into some kind of conspiracy.  Nothing more.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:42 | 4260727 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Philly Fed Cheese Dick Sandwich (filling but without all the facts)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:01 | 4260782 Stuart
Stuart's picture

no worries, the BLS and their puppet masters will just plug the employment numbers to whatever they deem appropriate to their needs on the next report.   Who needs the truth, we can't handle the truth.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:34 | 4260902 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No hot soft pretzel for you !!  For TWO year!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:20 | 4260633 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture



Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:21 | 4260638 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I have a feeling you're going to get a lot of mileage out of that comment the next few months.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:33 | 4260691 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Right on schedule. Nobody should have been shocked on this board by the move in Taper or this Comicbook story arc.

Jan taper, Feb revision. We still have yet to see the net effect from the Annual payroll rebalancing. When they slip that 'revision' into the print, expect to see a massive adjustment in BLS expectations.

KB Home will likely lead the whole sector bad.

Data also has yet to take into account the SPX bellweather revisions this week (this rate creep is likely PIMCO & the bond guys making good on their promise to begin their migration from the T10 wasteland this quarter). Ford and their downstream manufacturing weakness was in line with what the oil distillate & driving numbers were flashing since October. Big question now is WHO is buying all those GM cars, and WHAT are they doing with them if they are NOT driving them ? 

Ukraine will be a Trojan horse for Russia. That 35B stealth bailout of their banking sector will cripple the Rus foreign reserves while killing any goodwill with the Ukr. people. not to mention placing LRCM's near Germany & Poland will make for a very fun 2014 for wargamers.



Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:25 | 4260658 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just like the wages of those public servants during "the shutdown"...

they'll make up for the lost printingfrency pretty soon... X2

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:20 | 4260634 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:38 | 4260910 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah.. You mean gliding along a soft patch of ice right into the frigid water!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:21 | 4260636 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Time for more levered buybacks, it's bonus time again! ho ho ho

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:22 | 4260652 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn did I say 75 billion a month? I meant to say 125 bad.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:30 | 4260674 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The CONgress will have to get in on the act for that to be true.  Gotta have a budget deficit to generate treasuries for the FEDury to buy.  

Of course they could start offering grandmas student loans so they can get a job at Walmart.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:36 | 4260697 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'm pretty creating the necessary deficit won't be a big problem.  In the worst case they can just donate a few hundred billion to their favorite sponsors and lobbyists -instant deficit.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:36 | 4260698 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Or they can fund a war....

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:53 | 4260968 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

......why "or"???

Lets do both in case one of them doesn't produce big enough deficits.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:34 | 4260701 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Deficit funding is only part of it.  The existing debt still needs to be serviced and liabilities still need to be funded.  So I guess the question is, is the interest on existing debt going down?  Is the cost of future liabilites going down?

Tick tock motherfuckers.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 13:38 | 4261094 SDShack
SDShack's picture

That's the key isn't it. But with the fed controlling 1/3 of the bond market now, and continuing is's bond buying, although at a slightly lower rate, the real question is what happens when the Fed controls 51% of the bond market? That will effectively render the bond vigilantes powerless and ZIRP will be the defacto rule forever. This will neutralize the future liabilities threat that could blow up with any rise in interest rates. It's really not hard to think this is their plan when you step back and stop thinking like a true investor, and start thinking like a sociopathic banker. It's the only strategy that makes the NWO possible. Do I really think the Fed can pull this off? Well, I didn't think TPTB would be able to extend and pretend this long, so I think the answer could very well be yes. The only thing that could still blow this all up is the "unexpected" crisis. But since the Fed has such a stellar track record at avoiding bubbles, I doubt that THEY are worried. But like all sociopaths, their hubris will eventually be their undoing, but it might be a very LONG time before it happens.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:26 | 4260661 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I don't think this is a problem.  After all, if the FED needs to kickstart the market they can just taper some more.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:41 | 4260722 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The fed will "taper" in so much as they can cover the cost of any new issuance.  They don't own 100% of the "market" (and America) yet.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 13:15 | 4261013 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

It is never a problem as long as the POG can be smashed. Obviously they learned from Volcker; must control the price of gold.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:26 | 4260664 replaceme
replaceme's picture

I'm late to the party, this is all bullish, right?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:06 | 4260804 Rukeysers Ghost
Rukeysers Ghost's picture

Bullish? Haven't you heard? This is the best economy there has ever been since last month. Now go to Walmart and buy as much Chinese junk as you can. Your govt' is relying on you to do your part.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 13:42 | 4261105 SDShack
SDShack's picture

It's the best economy there has ever been that still needs $75B in monthly stimulus from the Fed...fixed it for you.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 11:56 | 4260762 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

More macros that show how shit it is out there.


Much thanks to the banksters for monetizing debt, buying everything that moves and driving markets to record highs.


The world appreciates your deceptions and sincerely hopes that you all die slowly and in as painful a way as possible.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:02 | 4260789 starman
starman's picture

Com on now, people are raking in it in on the market friend of mine just called me chicken little after he went head first in to stocks while I parked my cash

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:03 | 4260791 sbenard
sbenard's picture

So one day after the big taper announcement, this quadruple whammy of bad news will send stocks to new record highs on optimism that the taper is now H I S T O R Y!

This is just more evidence that a great reset is coming!

And so Yellen will soon INCREASE the debt monetization program, we'll have deflationary period, following by hyperinflation, just as Mulroney predicted!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:09 | 4260813 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

This thing is going biblical.

Watch Emerging Markets.

Maybe last April was just a trial run.

Bernanke has pulled away the teat.

If easy money was enough for capital markets, they never would have QE'd in the 1st place.

Got news for you.

Tapering is tightening. Anything not easing, is tightening.

Symbolic only you say?

Look at the 5 year. It's the short end that should have you in diapers.

Look at Emerging Markets.

Or close your eyes and BTFD. It has worked for years. What can go wrong?

The FED is Omni-Potent, right?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:15 | 4260839 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Tapering is tightening." -  And if rates go negative?  In many cases they already are.  Can you say "bail-in"?  Not sure I agree with your thesis.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:27 | 4260885 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

why some sneaky devil might want to bankrupt everyone except banks so that a deflationary collapse occurs during which time all relativly attractive assets will be obtained on the cheap so just don't own anything and you will be fine

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:30 | 4260889 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Taper was just a jesture. It was so little it meant nothing.

Soon the Federal Reserve will own 50% plus of the US debt.

With the Fed's mark to fantasy accounting they can lie all they want. One huge Ponzi.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 12:32 | 4260895 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

 75 billion a month + infinity = 85 billion a month + infinity

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