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US To Become Less Dependent On Foreign Oil? - Be Careful What You Wish For!

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Claude Salhani of OilPrice.com,

The US Energy Information Administration released on Tuesday an early version of its Annual Energy Outlook for 2014.  The main item being that the United States will continue to develop its own oil and to press for more efficient cars in order to reduce demand on oil.

The report from the federal government forecasts a rise in US oil production of another 800,000 barrels per day for the coming two years, but sees a rise by 2016 with the US reaching about 9.5 million barrels per day.  The previous high was attained in 1970 when production had reached 9.6 million bpd.

Predictions are that the oil boom is temporary and is expected to level off around 2020, but by then there should be a lot more fuel efficient cars on the roads that the drop in production will not be felt.

Another major change is that the federal government report expects that as oil production begins to decrease natural gas will rise, according to the EIA by as much as 56 percent by 2040 reaching 37.6 trillion cubic feet per year.

This news should please the environmentalists as well as politicians who want to see the United States turn away from the Middle East, its oil and its problems.

For the first group, the good news is that the total reading of U.S. energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide by 2040 will be 7 percent under 2005 levels in 2040.

The reduction in consumption will come about as the result of greater importance being given to focus on more energy efficiency in every aspect of our lives; from automobiles to buildings that require less heating to street lighting.

While this new development will no doubt be welcomed by most Americans it will bring additional joy to those who are fed up with the stagnation and violence that is perpetuated in the Middle East and will welcome this news amid hopes that the US will be less dependent on that turbulent part of the world for its fuel, thus less prone to the region’s unstable politics.

But here there is the need for a word of caution. Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems.

In the region of the Gulf, for example, the US counts many allies who are becoming extremely nervous at a USA hoping to step back from the region while across the waters they face a more powerful Iran with ever-growing political/religious ambitions. Up until now countries in the region felt somewhat protected largely because of their oil. Case in point was when Kuwait was invaded by Saddam Hussein in 1990 the US raised a powerful multinational coalition to throw him out of the oil producing state.

But recent events, such as the distancing of once extremely close US-Saudi relation have started to cast doubts in the minds of the oil rich sheiks of the Gulf who are truly questioning America’s resolve in the region.

The added danger for the US is the resurgence of Russia as a power to be reckoned with and now China, too.  The United States could be fooled into a false sense of security inside Fortress America and start to lose more and more of its influence.

Indeed, the exploitation of American oil for American consumption may well bring about much wished for independence from foreign oil and foreign intrigue. But one should be careful what one wishes for.

 


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Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:12 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...there should be a lot more fuel efficient cars on the roads...

lol 

Where I live, the oil boom has had the opposite effect.


Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

But I'm 'indestructable'....

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:32 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

America would start to lose more and more of its influence.

"Influence" means bullying fellow thugs into doing things their way.

The MIC being less involved in the insanity of the Middle East sounds good to me. I have no interest in my neighbor kid being blown up... to make the world safe for... something.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:41 | Link to Comment hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

"...but this one goes to 11."

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Sweet, I can't wait until all those freshly created dollars can stay home instead of our inflation being exported to those countries that still take FRNs.

Long bread helmets and empty liquor bottles.

pods

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Pods, you know that is not how it works....

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Fuck the jews, arabs, Israel, the whole fucking house of Saud, etc.  Them killing each other is not worth a single American life or dollar.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 01:04 | Link to Comment 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems."

I don't know, that all seems to be one HELL of a good plan to me.   No more 10 year long 1 trillion dollar wars like Afghanistan.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 04:29 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I was happily reading this tripe wondering 'why write an article like this' when I stumbled on this bit of trash:

"Case in point was when Kuwait was invaded by Saddam Hussein in 1990 the US raised a powerful multinational coalition to throw him out of the oil producing state."

LOL. So you mean these countries are worried that their guard dog won't be there to protect them when they start drilling across their neighbor's borders? Such a shame..

Why bother writing such shit?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Be prepared to forego a ~25-50% decrease in living standards by taking such an insular approach. The rich will still be ok, not so for the rest...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

The middle east is largely settled and a distraction from the real, forward action in central asia.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:50 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I would disagree.  Maybe we are developing domestic oil so we can go to war in the Middle East.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Gladio-B, all six parts can be accessed at this link.

http://www.corbettreport.com/sibel-edmonds-explains-whos-at-the-top-of-t...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:16 | Link to Comment localsavage
localsavage's picture

That truck pulls mote tail than a Prius....just sayin

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

The Prius makes a better coffin.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Prius gets you more liberal chicks who put out more.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

That also means that you'd have to listen to all their interesting progressive ideas on how to make the world a better place.

At least I wouldn't hate myself while driving around in the truck. With my dog as company. On the way to the range.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:55 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If you're trying to pick up chicks with the prius, don't forget to bring your razor...  it's a jungle down there.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Oath_Keeper
Oath_Keeper's picture

Full head of hair down there

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

That is identical to what I drive here at work, mine is red. 

Before you all start to down arrow me, it spends 90% of it's time hooked up to a 28 foot fifth wheel livestock trailer, and is not a daily driver for some idiot thinks it looks cool.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Actually, that truck (assuming it's diesel) is a lot more efficient than the Prius at actually getting work done.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Work? You're talking about the US, right?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Exactly, efficiency has been always the enabler of growth.

Jevons paradox:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

No kidding - hard to take an opinion article seriously when they do not even consider or mention Jevons paradox or the tragedy of the commons in such an obvious context.  Bush league!!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 01:41 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

And worse, historically any time there has been a surplus of food or energy, the birth rate has accelerated and the death rate has decelerated. Human populations expand to fill the surplus energy.

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

One should shove this post up someone's ass...

 

Nice truck Hedge, small, but nice. ;)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

+100. You get the feeling this guy is in favor of the US being the world's cop as well?

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

"+100. You get the feeling this guy is in favor of the US being the world's cop as well?"

 

++++++

Well said and screw Saudi Arabia anyway

 

Inside the Saudi 9/11 coverup

http://nypost.com/2013/12/15/inside-the-saudi-911-coverup/

 

GEEK OIL: SCIENTISTS MANUFACTURE BIOFUEL FROM ALGAE IN MINUTES

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/12/18/Scientists-Manufacture-Crude-Oil-The-End-of-Peak-Oil

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How much sugar did they feed the algae?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

None, they used High Fructose Corn Syrup instead. Hopefully the algae doesn't become diabetic before it gets turned into fuel.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

To use algae to produce fuel is a neat, but not hard trick. To scale that up to produce fuel at reasonable cost and in quantity is a pipe dream. Not only that, but by the time ALL energy "in" is calcualted versus useable energy "out", are they really producing energy, or turning one form of energy into a nice oil like liquid.

The basic laws of physics seem to escape a large portion of the dreamers out there. They never can get it, like the great saviour, Tar Sands. The total long term energy "in" component makes tar mining and processing a marginal energy gain. The long term cost of lost fresh water resources for generations is yet to be calculated.

Or the great off shore Brazilian find a few years back, nobody want to speak of how to drill in that deep water into the great depths of the bottom where this oil lies, drill it, put in prodcution wells, transport it to shore, in the end, there is lots of oil to be had, add up the energy "in" and once again you are marginal.

I wonder, is Physics, even basic physics required in the Americna publci school system. I seem to think that it is not and that you can be a high school graduate without a concerpt of conservation of energy and the equations of energy production itself.

I will admit there are oceans of liquid and tar fossil fuels left on earth. But when was the last time someone drove a rig to a spot, drilled a hole in a couple days and found a gusher? Fracking is proof, if it be needed, that only very expensive oil is left.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

It is not energy in vs. energy out. It is the cost of energy in vs. the price of energy out. Two very different concepts.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No, it is the form of fossil fuel energy in vs out. There is still BTU arbitrage for profit in the case of liquids but that situation as it is currently exploited will not last indefinately except as a niche...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

I think you meant to say "pubic school system".

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 21:34 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

right on, the scale ups don't work on a lot of this stuff

Ps. what the hell was the point of this piece?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 00:13 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Have any of you ZH'ers heard of the SEG (Searl effect generator)?
If not google it, or better yet google John Searl Story.
It's pretty amazing how effectively and viciously TPTB have suppressed new energy technologies since the days of Nicola Tesla, all in the name of the mighty Petrodollar.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 06:00 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

There is no 'new energy'. Only flim-flam artists selling perpetual motion machines. The earth recieves massive amounts of energy each day. Tesla is probably rolling in his grave at being the poster child for 'Free energy'. Tesla was working on a wireless transmission system, he didn't claim to have found a mysterious source of free energy.

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Tesla said it best; "The earth rings like a bell".

You have a grave misunderstanding of the universe. I suggest researching Janet Wood's 9/11 work to open your mind. You'll be shocked at what you may learn.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And I posit that you are a whackadoo with not even the faintest understanding of the physical nature of the universe...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

And you you do? lol....

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Having a Ph.D. in physics is considered a pretty good start to the journey of understanding the universe we live in....

Now run along, you are in way over your head...

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 05:38 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

Always good to start with the possibilities, however fantastical at the beginning of one's journey. You have a long way to go, I wish you all the best.

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 01:50 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget

Once we run out of fossil fuel (which is really just inefficiently stored sunlight), we have a theoretical 174 Petawatts of energy to collect at sea level each day. That is quite a lot of energy, more than we currently use each year globally. Collecting it is the challenge.

As for algae, they are very efficient converters of both sunlight and CO2 into hydrocarbons, and they can feed on non-food crops such as Switch Grass. Scale, as always is a problem, but believe you me, when Jurasic Algae is selling for $300 a barrel, the motivation will be strong to get it scaled up.

 

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I hope you're getting private funding for that questionable experiment.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Claude has posted here before. We've had similar sentiments.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

This is a nice clean 1 star article after 18 votes. I think that's pretty telling.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

No kidding.  Seems like imperialism-justification, rallying cry nonsense written for the lowest common denominator.  Folks who don't know and won't ever question the fact that we will still import far more than we produce might eat this shit up.  Guess that's the target audience.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"But here there is the need for a word of caution. Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems."..

Ditto to you both.

Being a recluse is the best thing that could happen to this Country given the damage it has inflicted on the rest of the World and most importantly to itself with it's reputation and credibility.

Sure hope Tyler is just playing Devil's Advocate with Oilprice.com, because this thing reads like an 'ode to BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil.

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

damn the world and all its problems. YES PLEASE. fucking finally. mind our own business and let everyone else live their lives, stop trying to "spread democracy" to the rest of the world that doesnt want our for of govt, and given its present form who can blame them. If i was on the outside looking in, i would say, why exactly would my country benefit from a shady central bank, lying, bailed out banks, a huge and growing surviellance state, and an insanly over grown MIC, and a congress full of cowards that haent even managed to pas a budget in five years and couldnt make a real decision if their lives depended on it. Id probably say no thanks

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Asphalt, fertilizer, plastics, hydraulic fluids, many lubricants, all come from.......

And by the way:

Even if we removed every gasoline-powered vehicle from the road, the United States would still be dependent on foreign sources of oil.

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

And the Arabs wouldn't sell if armed America kids weren't there?

Would they just sit on all that oil and watch their revenues tank? Hell, it's all western companies that drill, pump and deliver the oil. Would they tell them to take a hike too?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Oh, they would sell, just not for US Dollars. Maybe Euros, Yuan, or gold.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Very true, but minus the amount needed for gasoline (however many millions of barrels/day that is), I think we could likely produce most if not all for our other needs.

On another note, I don't think energy independence was (at least previously) a real goal since developments like 100 MPG carburetor being suppressed, Stanley Meyer (water powered car) murdered, etc. Anecdotally, I heard Japanese had 70-100MPG cars with decent power being denied entry to US markets as well. I understand the whole Petro-dollar flow, but perhaps it's being "realigned" for some purpose.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:09 | Link to Comment angryBuddhist
angryBuddhist's picture

Since we only get 12.9% of our oil from the middle east, I would like to see what the average cost per barrel of oil comes to that we get from them when you factor in the cost of our military presence there. Let's to some simple math that anyone can easily understand . . .

9,030,000,000 barrels oil from the middle east - total in the last 10 years

X $69 / Barrel (average price per barrel for the past 10 years)

---------------

$623,070,000,000 = total cost of 10 years of oil from the middle east - market price.

Add to this the price of our involvement in the middle east over the past 10 years estimated at $3 Trillion

(some estimate more but we will use this number simply to illustrate a point)

9.03 Billion barrels of oil cost actually us $3.623 Trillion

This translates into $401.23 per barrel.

I will leave it up to the reader to decide if oil from the middle east is worth it.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Blazed
Blazed's picture

Oil isn't the only driver of US Middle East foreign policy, so don't you worry about the US being a "recluse" from that region anytime soon. I guess even being just 1/8 Jewish, Jack Straw could afford to point out the obvious, otherwise he would be labeled an "anti-semite", which is funny given 90% of Jews are just a bit more Semitic than an Eskimo.

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Former-UK-foreign-secretary-AIPAC-is-the-main-barrier-to-peace-329884

The goal.

http://www.ahavat-israel.com/eretz/future

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Der Wille Zur Macht
Der Wille Zur Macht's picture

Is energy conservation futile? 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

 

I'm an oil & gas production analyst/forecaster by trade and even I have no idea how all this shit will play out!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:36 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Is energy conservation futile?

On a long enough timeline...yes.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Energy conservation (i.e., efficiency) is a good idea. It isn't magic, however, regardless of what our sanctified rulers say.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

I would choose effectiveness over efficiency most often.  If you throw a perfectly efficient punch but miss, and I in return throw a punch with a ton of wasted motion but it finds it's mark, well...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The US imports 8 million bpd of crude, which is all that matters. 

Consumption during the Apocalypse has fallen about 2 mbpd and production is up 2 mbpd.

Neither of those last two parameters is going to continue that trend, assuming you believe population grows and that 4 counties in northwest North Dakota are of fixed size.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Really? You don't think US oil consumption could drop another 2, or even 10 million barrels per day as The Greater Depression rolls forward?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Pop  quiz: What fraction of oil consumption is directly used by Agriculture in the US?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

The US uses about 20 million barrels of oil per day, with about 4 million for the military, and what, 2 to 4 million for agriculture? The big thing for ag is natural gas for making ammonia nitrates.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 02:48 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Way off....

US usage is now about 18 mmpbd...

AG is 20-30% depending on the study....

Military is only about ~1 mmppd...

NG usage is driven by power generation....

========

Basing your world view on erroneous knowledge is no way to go through life...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 13:58 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

"Way off....

US usage is now about 18 mmpbd..."

10% is way off? wow, bit nit-picky.

"AG is 20-30% depending on the study...."

What's 20% of 20 million? Oh, about 4 million, what I said. Thanks for the restate.

"Military is only about ~1 mmppd..."

It seems a lot of places are claiming the US military is down to around 350 kbpd, so actually not nearly as huge a consumer as I thought. Still, you really think US oil consumption cannot drop another 2 million barrels per day, or more?

As for Natural Gas, sure power generation is a huge user, but fertilizer is where natural gas MUST go, otherwise a sudden plummet in food production will be a much bigger problem than any of these other distractions.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

For easily accesible numbers that can be found with an intelligent 30 second search, you were way off...

Oh, US oil consumption will decrease by another 2 mmbpd, no one is going to like how it plays out though...

Let's see how seniorage of oil refining plays out while the GC continues to export refined imported oil (with generous tax "incentives") while gasoline becomes an even more precious commodity...

NG is also a feed stock for the petrochemical industry. Once again, spending a few moments to educate yourself before blowing wind in the guise of your opinion would be called for...

I found this in 15 seconds

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm

by doing this

https://www.google.com/#q=Break+down+of+Natural+gas+consumption+in+the+US

I am sure another 15 seconds would have yielded a more detailed breakdown...

PS Industrial use of NG is in a downtrend....

Edit: Found this in 23 seconds (by adding industrial to the above search)

http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/uses_industry.asp

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

AG is 20-30% depending on the study....

and therein lies one of the Horsemen in waiting.

it would be interesting to know what that % is on a global scale.

would most likely want to make me spit up my coffee and shit chocolate :)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Danno Anderson
Danno Anderson's picture

<<<  Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems.>>>

 

Isolationism would be much better for the US than trying to be the policeman of the world or fighting Israels enemies for them.  We have a 17 trillion dollar debt in part because we have tried to be both the policeman and Santa Claus (foreign aid) of the world. 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:24 | Link to Comment yrad
yrad's picture

I'm guessing you voted RP.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 05:05 | Link to Comment CHX
CHX's picture

NATO, UN et al. should be "world police". US can/could still use their war machinery within such framework. Unilateral wars, without declaration of war (since there is no reason other than to support the petrodollar ponzi anyway), is what is not OK.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Iran will be taken out when they need her oil off the market...........

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Good,we can bring home all our troops A and tell the KSA,Russia and China go fuck themselves and they can handle that Dude in the DRNK and next future nuclear power Iran.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

"Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse..."

Like all of Europe, South America, and Australia?  Seems to me, minding their own business serves them pretty well.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

Braindead article.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Frack the Middle East.

Let those savages tear each other to pieces.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:48 | Link to Comment vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

we should frack beneath your house.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I own the mineral rights so please, please, please let them want to frack on my land.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:25 | Link to Comment AmericasCicero
AmericasCicero's picture

We don't need the middle east for their oil.  We need them to sell their oil in dollars to everyone else lest the demand for the dollar fall to zilch.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment yrad
yrad's picture

Plastic is a four letter word.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Plastic is a four letter word.

Math skills of an economist.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

Stupid, just f-ing stupid.  Linear though process.  When this guy gets up in the morning and it's raining, he'll tell you is going to rain all day...f-ing idiot.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

Idiots that write for the oildrum.com, have had the same linear thought process...5 yrs ago they said there would be no gasoline for your car by 2013...went to the pump yesteday, they had gas, and it cost less than $3/gallon.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No one ever said that...

Quit making shit up...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

They absolutely posted several articles that said it...I read it everday...it was BULLSHIT

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You clearly have a serious reading comprehension problem then...

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:25 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Links?

It's all still up there under the archves:

http://www.theoildrum.com/special/archives

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Since the site is still up, mind linking to a single article on oildrum that said we would be 'out of gasoline' by 2013? 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Now we can tell the Saudis to... FOAD!

http://rt.com/news/saudi-arabia-syrian-policy-464/

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment giorgioorwell
giorgioorwell's picture

Whether or not you agree if we "should" be policemen of the world, we #1 simply can't afford to anymore, and #2 have pisssed off most of our allies over NSA spying/drones/etc...

You can whine all you want, but the short lived American empire (short by most standards when compared to Roman, Greek, British, etc) is coming to an end.  

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Fuck you neocon. Is Tyler trolling his own blog? This is the bullshit that keeps us serfs to big government the MIC and the emerging fascism. We should be more Swiss

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

And I care that other PG nations are nervous of a Persian with a nuclear hard-on...why?

"Death to USA" yields to "USA, help us!"?

Fuck off!  Learn to speak Farsi bitches, or take care of that shit yourself!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

The world would be glad to have the US out of their hair for about 100 years...peace out fuckers!

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Scientists Wary of Shale Oil and Gas as U.S. Energy Salvation

Hughes sums up: "Tight oil is an important contributor to the U.S. energy supply, but its long-term sustainability is questionable. It should be not be viewed as a panacea for business as usual in future U.S. energy security planning."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131028141516.htm

 

 

U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power

“I look at shale as more of a retirement party than a revolution,” says Art Berman, a petroleum geologist who spent 20 years with what was then Amoco and now runs his own firm, Labyrinth Consulting Services, in Sugar Land, Tex. “It’s the last gasp.”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-10/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-boom-may-not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power

 

THE FRACKING PONZI SCHEME

Robert Ayres, a scientist and professor at the Paris-based INSEAD business school, wrote recently that a "mini-bubble" is being inflated by shale gas enthusiasts. “Drilling for oil in the U.S. in 2012 was at the rate of 25,000 new wells per year, just to keep output at the same level as it was in the year 2000, when only 5,000 wells were drilled."  http://www.forbes.com/sites/insead/2013/05/08/shale-oil-and-gas-the-contrarian-view/

 

Why America's Shale Oil Boom Could End Sooner Than You Think

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/06/13/why-americas-shale-oil-boom-could-end-sooner-than-you-think/

 

FRACKING WILL CREATE AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

Overinflated industry claims could pull the rug out from optimistic growth forecasts within just five years.  A report released in March by the Berlin-based Energy Watch Group (EWG) concluded that: "... world oil production has not increased anymore but has entered a plateau since about 2005."  Crude oil production was "already in slight decline since about 2008."   

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

“Drilling for oil in the U.S. in 2012 was at the rate of 25,000 new wells per year, just to keep output at the same level as it was in the year 2000, when only 5,000 wells were drilled." 

 

Hadn't seen that phrased thus before.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Silicon, on the other hand, is ridiculously plentiful.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:36 | Link to Comment hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

"Being less dependent on Middle Eastern oil does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems."

Why the hell not?  It's exactly why the US should be more energy independent - get our noses OUT of other people's problems, and thus get other people's noses OUT of our business.

Continued meddling in ME and elsewhere = more blowback. Count on it.

Self-sufficiency & minding our own business is exactly where we need to be (america's political center is already there, being ignored by globalists on both sides).

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

Who needs water when you can have fracked water?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:48 | Link to Comment RobD
RobD's picture

"by then there should be a lot more fuel efficient cars on the roads"

Ok so who is going to be buying all these new efficient cars? My guess is that there will be a lot less cars on the road in 2020 as no one will be able to afford a new car and will still be driving the POS they have.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

This.  At least I can fix most of the shit on mine myself, and it's paid for. 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Is it hard for the Tylers to find these idiots, or are they a dime a dozen?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

economic deflation + new oil technology (especially unconventional resources = a lower oil price and dramatically reduced dependence upon the ME.

USA is becoming a major energy EXPORTER.  too many people just cant believe or refuse to belive that simple fact.  

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Umm... are you telling me the price has gone down? You confuse the effect of technology and the price of oil at which that technology becomes viable...

Care to back that with data? In fact could you back anything you said?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 20:42 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Anyone that thinks the US is a net energy exporter has rocks in their head. The US is an exporter of refined petroleum products, which are made from imported and domestic crude oil. The US remains a major energy importer.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Modest net exporter coal (~5% of production)

Net Importer of NG (~20% of demand)....

Major net importer of oil/petroleum products (~50% of demand)....

Edit: looks like net imports of NG are closer to 10% (using latest available figures)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Utter piece of drivel on so many fronts...

35 TCF of natty by 2040??? Fucking hilarious...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

O.T. but of interest to Gold Bugs...

"Costa Rica refused to let a mining company destroy its rainforest to build an open-pit gold mine — so Infinito Gold is suing the country for $1 billion.

Costa Rica's rainforest is one of the most beautiful in the world, home to endangered animals like jaguars and green macaws. Locals had no intention of letting toxins like cyanide destroy that land or leach into their lakes and rivers — but we (www.watchdog.net) don't stand with them, more countries will end up bullied and bankrupted by these corporate behemoths" from an email received.

Anyone else see the irony of the "struggling" gold miners not making money in the "manipulated" gold prices ($1200), and yet they have the money and biz plan to mine MOAR.  Sort of brings back the saying about "gold mines being a hole in the ground, with a liar standing on top".  Or something like that.

Drop the gold to $600, for all I care.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

And this will only get worse with the various 'free trade' agreements in the making. It will give corporations power over national legislation and the power to sue national governments due to losses to 'future incomes' because of some decision taken in parliament.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

egad, where to even start? claude you worthless pos. i won't even take the time to debunk your crap.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I concur. What a self serving scumbag. He should work for the fed.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

Can you work for the Fed and AIPAC?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Blood Spattered...
Blood Spattered Banner's picture

*translation*  "When we don't need any more of their oil, we'll still need to generate profits from war profiteering, so get used to us raping Muslims for the forseeable future."

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment rp1
rp1's picture

Fuck that, we need solar energy.  Look at this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/cheap-spray-on-solar-cells-developed-b...

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

You're going to need several energy sources:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH5vXS-WJP0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLNViUsRCVU

(both solar in different ways)

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Based on 1980s papers... i.e. it wasn't very promising the first time around, and they are after publicity and funding.

Looking at the papers ... 2.7% efficient on a good day. You are better off growing trees.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment teolawki
teolawki's picture

I see someone forgot to lock the door to the evil Tyler's cage today.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Is oil not a globally-priced commodity with 2 standards right now (North Sea and West Texas)?

Whenver you hear someone mention 'American oil independence' you know either right away this person is a combo of 1 of 2 things;

1. An idiot

2. A schill with an alternative agenda who knows the term is utter nonsense but uses it to resonate with the average American who knows almost nothing about the price of gasoline besides what they pay at the pump

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There are many benchmarks....

e.g. Tapis, LLS, Argus Sour Crude Index etc....

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The term usually used is "energy independence", which allows tossing in coal and nat gas -- knowing the reader will think immediately of oil.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment SpasticGramps
SpasticGramps's picture

Fuck this article.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

Agree, with statements like;

it does not mean the United States should become a political recluse, retrench inside fortress America and damn the rest of the world and their problems.

The world should be so lucky.

Where is that sentiment addressed in this meandering dissertation?

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Of course, over time the US will become less "dependent" on foreign oil.  Energy use will grow faster than oil supply.  How can it be otherwise?

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

The original post betrays the AIPAC nature of the author. Israel fears US energy independence will cheapen Israel's value as a US Military colony in the heart of Oil country. If the US does not need all the Middle East oil, then Israel's only value will be American's sacred bond to the tribe of Israel. And when money leaves the equation and Israel must fall back on it's Radical Christian Fundamentalist Base in America, then they have reason to get worried.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Israel's major claim on  our loyalty is two fold. The crimes the Germans committed against the Jews, and these were part of a larger German assualt on Eastern Europe and minorities of all kinds. And their vaule as America's Foreign Leigon in the Middle East. Religious ties and military ties, these form Israel's hold over America. AIPAC and others simply add a huge dose of money to the ethical and military arguments for US backing of their state. No other nation on earth can lay such claims to American's loyalty and money. Britain is America's closest allie, but they possess only a fraction of the influence that Israel can wield. Congress especially follows slavishly the policies Israel dictates to them via the AIPAC lobby organization. The one great recent failure was when intense AIPAC lobby failed to bring about a war on Syria. This shows just how sick of War Americans have become.

The author of the post seems to think we are in the year 2001, not 2013. War fever has cooled. Americans don't want war on Syria or Iran, though the right wing, military, intelligence community, defense contractors and Israel long for more war, would do anything to bring about more war. As average Americans, we pay for it with money and our lives and or kids lives. They command and we suffer, while our Media cheerleads their war fever/

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Claude Salhani of OilPrice.com, should be banned! 

 

The "One Dot" rating is only due to the fact that you can't click zero dots. 

I was shocked that his piece of crap made it to a headline on ZH. 

I thought I must have misunderstood, so I read it again: it was worse than I thought! 

For example: "...oil rich sheiks of the Gulf who are truly questioning America’s resolve in the region." Screw them!  Let them see how they like it when they get depend on the Red Chinese', and have the USA just sittin' across the water munchin' popcorn watching the poor Chinamen trying to heard those kittens.  Nah, too good to be true; too much money in war. 

"The United States could be fooled into a false sense of security inside Fortress America".  What is this, an early April 1st joke! 

 

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 18:51 | Link to Comment michael_engineer
michael_engineer's picture

The only way the US becomes independent of foreign oil, or becomes an oil exporter, is if Saudi Arabia becomes the 51st state, or maybe Iran.  Then, technically were good.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:38 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

The USSA should admit the truth.
That the USSA is a fiction, and does not exist.
And then officially disband.  Followed by states, counties, cities... and all other fictitious entities (corporations and other organizations).

Yes, that constitutes the USSA getting out of other people's business.

However, individuals will happily trade, travel and interact with each other in endless voluntary, non-tyrannical ways... which is good.

Thu, 12/19/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

Hmm who should we (America) be more friendly with? Iran which has lots of oil and hasn't done anything to us, or Israel, who has no oil (or anything else really) and slurps down over $3 billion American taxpayer dollars per year, seemingly FOREVER.

Decisions, decisions...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Your question sounds as if you have a choice in the matter.

 

You donT need to be "friendly" to your Jew Overlords.  They donT care if you are "friendly" or not.

 

As soon as Iran bows down to the World's Overlords,

then Iran can become a "friendly" member of our World.

 

The Iranians have a choice.  You donT.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 08:22 | Link to Comment esum
esum's picture

FOR TWELVE YEARS WE BLED AND DIED IN SHITHOLES FOR OIL..... AND THE "WAR ON TERRORISM" .....TO WHAT END? THE POS IN THE WHITE HOUSE TURNS HIS BACK, WALKS AWAY WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT AND SHITS IN THE FACE OF THE VETERANS..... FOCUSING ON EBT, OBAMAPHONES, WELFARE AND USELESS SOCIAL PROGRAMS OF ALL SORTS, HELPING ILLEGALS, CONSORTING WITH THE SINALOA CARTEL, UNDERMINING THE ECONOMY, DIVIDING THE OCUNTRY, TAKING VACATIONS AND SPENDING TAXPAYER MONEY ON HIS FRIENDS AND FAMILY, SHITTING ON THE CONSTITUTION, AND CIRCUMVENTING AND NOT ENFORCING THE LAW.... 

WE SHOULD PUMP THE MIDDLE EAST OIL DRY TO PAY FOR THE WAR AND COMPENSATE THE CASUALTIES FINANCIALLY FOR THEIR SACRIFICE FOR THEIR COUNTRY... 

THERE IS A PRICE FOR "FREEDOM" AND IT IS PAID IN BLOOD... 

THE AFGHANIS AND IRAQIS HAVE TO STAND UP AND FIGHT FOR THEMSELVES.... 

WHAT I WANT TO KNOW IS HOW MUCH MIDDLE EAST MONEY HAS FLOWED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY INTO THE POCKETS OF THOSE SENDING OUR TROOPS OFF TO FIGHT FOR IT.... HEY CLINTOON, BUSH, OBAMA ... AND CONGRESS.....CARE TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION....

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Mission accomplished!

Good work boy!

 

You 'n your buddies did an excellent job taking Saddam's oil from that rogue.

That oil is now earning profits for western Oligarchs.

 

What is this "Freedom" you speak of?  Do those Ragheads want what you (propose to) have?

 

And you donT need to keep your caps lock on nowadays.  Nobody cares any more if you know how to capitalize or not, so you donT need to cap everything to hide your inability.  In other words, do all lower case, if you donT know how to properly capitilize words.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment NoCrazies
NoCrazies's picture

I don’t see becoming an oil independent country as a bad thing. The US has its hands in everyone’s blouse; I think it’s a stretch to assume that the US moving away from dependence on Mid-East oil is somehow synonymous with isolationist or protectionist policies.. I have to say that after several decades of entering into coitus with the mid-east that has cost us in money, lives and reputation, it would be nice to sever all needs to engage with mid-east countries. Then we could leave these 2000 year behind country states to their own devices; honestly without oil and its revenue they are back to selling pomegranates. Can you really build nuclear devices on the income from pomegranates and dates?

On a side note to “New ESM” you bled and died in the mid-east for the US to try and change the prevailing regime and a test to see if they could rinse and repeat in other neighboring countries. 10 years and billions of dollars later the US discovered it takes more than military power to take over an entire country and successfully place figure heads in power who are easier to manage. The oil and contracts for work were just a bonus. As an American you were duped into fighting for your country on the premise of a first strike from a over exaggerated foe that had no relation to Iraq.. I thank you for your sacrifice but your masters are corrupt, lying thieves who in their hubris wish to control everything and do not care who dies in the process.

There is no greater slave, than the one who believes he is free.

 

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