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BofAML Closes USDJPY, Warns "Bulls Beware"
"USDJPY bulls must use caution going forward," is the ominous warning BofAML's MacNeil Curry sends as the firm closes its long position on reaching their upside objective of 104.60. A closer look at the uptrend from early October says that this is a maturing advance and is growing increasingly prone to a reversal. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Triangle breakouts represent the terminal move of a trend, meaning that the potential for a top and medium-term reversal lower is growing quickly; one that could ultimately take prices back to the 97/96 area. While this is likely a story for 2014, Curry warns - USDJPY bulls should beware.
Of course, crucially, if USDJPY rolls over, so does the house of cards equity market with it at the margin... but fundamentals still matter right?
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MacNeil Curry - a modern day Tom Stolper.
no big deal
just means that gs has made arrangements for a different sovereign to own and control gas lines from the caspian
Perhaps it will go to 97, but do not disregard Abe's ability to completely fuck up the Japanese economy. He may be worse than Obama.
250% debt to GDP, no natural resources, Fukishima, messing with CHina?
Maybe trade the wiggle but long term it's toast.
I actually agree with that call.
I will take the opposite side and say we see 110 before or instead of 97. Not trading the USD/JPY mind you...will hold the AUD/JPY long over the holidays and hope the Black Swans stay away until the New Year.
The GBP/JPY...now that looks top heavy...if I were a short.
Have a good one...and good luck in the New Year.
Thanks you do the same. GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/AUD shorts look like they could be nice trades going into next year. I think aud/jpy is a wash, because of my feelings re; jpy. I'm going to trade through the holidays. Thin markets make for some nice price action.
Good luck! I remember Boehner opened his yap...on a Sunday I think... the last holiday season and I got hammered on my NZD/JPY long. Which, of course came roaring back after my stop was hit. Some bullshit about the fiscal cliff...asshole.
I like your GBP/AUD..hope that works out for you.
Adios.
Stops aren't what they used to be...
What is the point of Wall Street recommendations again?
To get the useful idiots to purchase thier client's positions...
Screw them, USDJPY is still in an uptrend. Not going to burn my hands by trying to pick a top. The market will decide.
Depreciating JPY makes Japan happy (deluded, but happy), keeps a lid on the price of gold and provides the leverage for the equity indexes to keep the ramp going - I don't see any reason why the JPY will turn any time soon. If they're jumpy about the JPY why aren't they jumpy about the S&P?
Who wins the race to the bottom when every currency is FIAT, and thus, worthless.
It seems like this thing could blow in either direction. There are a lot of people lookin to GTFO of this damn currency.
In order for usd/jpy to continue higher the usd needs to continue to strengthen. That would be counter productive for U.S. equity and bond markets. I think there will be a medium term pullback before it resumes it's longer term uptrend.
US. markets trump Japanese markets in the macro scheme of things.
Why would a USD strengthening be counterproductive for US equities and bonds? I'm curious to hear your logic behind that thinking. I'd think the opposite.
Hmm, think about it. Stronger usd reduces oveseas earnings because of the exchange rate differential. Higher bond yields encourage usd buying for higher yield. Got it?
Musical chairs with debt to GDP. Just fake GDP and keep raising debt to keep up with it.