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Final Q3 GDP Revision Smashes Expectations, Prints Nearly 50% Higher Than Initial Estimate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When a month ago, the BEA released its first revision to Q3 GDP, the lament from even the biggest sycophants of data manipulation was that the bounce in estimated Q3 economic output from 2.84% to 3.61% was driven entirely by inventory accumulation, while personal consumption as a % of the final GDP number actually declined from 1.04% to 0.96%.Sequentially, the ever missing personal consumption was revised up 2% vs the estimated up 1.4%, far above the highest estimate of 1.6%, and also the prior 1.4% print.

Which is why absolutely nobody was surprised to see the BEA mysteriously keep virtually every other GDP component unchanged but boost Personal Consumption Expenditures from 0.96% of GDP to 1.36%. The end result is that the GDP reported in the first revision number has been boosted once again to a simply ludicrous 4.1%, smashing expectations of a 3.6% print. Putting this "revision" in perspective, the final GDP is now 45% higher than the first GDP estimate of 2.84%, and there is a whopping 1.5% delta between the first and final revision, which in our record books is the biggest revision on record.

What can one say: close enough for government data-fudging work.

Some additional data in the GDP release:

Corporate Profits 

 

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $39.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $66.8 billion in the second.  Taxes on corporate income decreased $0.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $10.0 billion.  Profits after tax with IVA and CC Adj increased $39.5 billion, compared with an increase of $56.9 billion.

 

Dividends decreased $179.0 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $273.5 billion in the second.  The large third-quarter decrease primarily reflected dividends paid by Fannie Mae to the federal government in the second quarter.  Undistributed profits increased $218.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $216.6 billion.  Net cash flow with IVA -- the internal funds available tocorporations for investment -- increased $231.1 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $205.3 billion. 

 

Corporate profits by industry

 

Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $9.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $24.5 billion in the second.  Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $12.7 billion, compared with an increase of $37.8 billion.  The increase in profits of financial corporations reflected increases in both Federal Reserve banks and "other" financial industries.  The increase in nonfinancial corporations primarily reflected increases in manufacturing and in "other" nonfinancial corporations that were partly offset by a decrease in information.  Within manufacturing, the largest increases were in "other" durable goods and in food and beverage and tobacco products. These increases were partly offset by decreases in petroleum and coal products and in chemical products. 

 

The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $16.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $4.6 billion in the second.  This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world.

 

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Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:45 | 4263439 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

I'm surprised they didn't make it 6.7% to get the markets really going...  I call bullshit.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:53 | 4263464 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

MOAR TAPER!!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:46 | 4263637 max2205
max2205's picture

The 30 yr up 1%    amzn 400 no earnings.   Goog 1100.   All systtems go

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:57 | 4263485 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

All hands pulling together for the glorious revolution! Once again, Dear Leader humiliates the retranchists and shows us the way to real prosperity!

FORWARD SOVIET!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:00 | 4263489 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Heh ... they'll never see it coming.

Lol.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:00 | 4263493 max2205
max2205's picture

'Profits'? LOL.....not FASB profits...surely

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 12:44 | 4264051 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Exactly.  This is why the BEA satisfied the urgings of Dear Leader to include stuff like songs and other harder to measure more hedonic crap in GDP From last July so when He wants MOAR output to reflect his greatness the BEA can just spin it up and the naysayers cant say nay because who is to say?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:15 | 4263530 doctor10
doctor10's picture

this is good. a roadmap for which Federal agencies that can be shuttered-starting with BEA

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:46 | 4263444 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

All this growth and no inflation! Lawdy Lawd Lawd it's a Christmas miracle! Thank you central planners! You truly know what is best! Now we can let the markets rip and keep interest rates low! Rejoice!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:50 | 4263461 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE

All this growth and no inflation! Lawdy Lawd Lawd it's a Christmas miracle!

I guess keeping wages down works!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:04 | 4263497 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Festivus for the rest of us................

The lies and PM smackdowns are getting bigger....... we are close to the end........

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:08 | 4263513 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Time for the Airing of Grievances and the Feats of Strength.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:25 | 4263572 j0nx
j0nx's picture

You thinking we are near the end means that we are just that much further away from it.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:14 | 4263535 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

there is inflation, but only in the assets of the top 0.01%.  the trickle down will happen any minute...wait for it....waaaiittt for it.....

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:42 | 4263624 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Time to change the words from Amazing Grace to Amazing Growth.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:50 | 4263455 PapSmear
PapSmear's picture

Spike the egg nog bitchez!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:51 | 4263465 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Now that it is clear that central planning was right and everyone else was wrong we should make today, December 20th, "Central Planning Day". We will celebrate it by spending all day trying to bullshit everyone around us while looking upon them in disdain should they question our bullshit. Then right before midnight, we take a vocal opponent of Central Planning and stone them to death. 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:13 | 4263511 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm about ready to be that guy.  I've seen enough.  Check please.

 

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:21 | 4263553 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

+1 for the sentiment, not because I would want to see you stoned to death.

Peace on earth.

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:16 | 4263534 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Enemies of the revolution are everywhere! But Dear Leader, in his infinite mercy, shall use scientific and modern methods to show them the error of their ways, and instill in them the revolutionary vigor that they lack, in the new re-education camps.

FORWARD SOVIET!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:50 | 4263456 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Was this released from Minitru or Minipro ?

Has the chocolate ration also inreased ?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:56 | 4263479 Orly
Orly's picture

It's mostly wax anyway...

:/

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:18 | 4263548 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

How are your frozen chicken breasts doing, do they agree with the "no inflation" meme?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:26 | 4263566 Orly
Orly's picture

First, they weren't frozen, they were fresh.  Second, the other day I got three packages of boneless, skinless chicken breasts for...wait for it...$1.99/lb!  Still a dollar ninety-nine a pound.

Rising prices some place is not inflation.  Until I am making more than I was making five years ago, there will be no inflation.  End of story.

:D

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:29 | 4263581 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

The meme to watch for is when Orly's FX account gets Corzined.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:41 | 4263613 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

You get a pay rise of 3 % every year in a society where average inflation i 5%, still you're satisfied and see no inflation.

Nice math blondie, no wonder you suck even at paper-pushing. Enjoy your Frankenbreasts!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:47 | 4263633 Orly
Orly's picture

Oh, let me guess.  You have an organic farm wherein you produce the chickens yourself from ancient stock of original poulets?  The hen pen is right in front of the cabbage patch, where you're now growing heirloom tomatoes.  The garden is right in front of your gold mine, too, if I am not mistaken.

Yeah, right.  Piss off- all of you idiots.  None of you can discuss anything in a rational manner and instead resort to your schoolyard bully tactics to demean someone who has a different opinion of things.

Assholes, the lot of you.  Is it any wonder no one of substance comes here any more?  You're all here so that your bias can be assuaged for yet another day.

In short, STFUI.

:D

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:50 | 4263655 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The internet is a very big place. There must be some website somewhere with a discussion board that will appreciate your brilliance. You know, where 'one of substance' will be e-hugged and met with the proper attitude befitting fellow posters who are grateful. Hasten thee to this.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:56 | 4263670 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Merry Christmas to you too, bitch!    :)

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 18:23 | 4264717 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"Is it any wonder no one of substance comes here any more?"

 

Really? Who did you have in mind, given it's an anon blog? You have no idea who comes here and what their substance is or isn't. If we all echoed or elaborated on your themes would we appear of sufficient "substance" to escape your castigations?

Let's get this straight; consensus ALWAYS turns out to be 'wrong', usually very wrong and some lowly fringe-dweller ALWAYS turns out to be 'right', against all apparent expectations of the majority view.

In science all real scientists try, in every way they can think of, to destroy and undermine their own hypothesis and theory constructions (and also those of other scientists).

That's what real science does. You approximate what may be 'true', via identifying what definitely isn't true, and eliminating that from further consideration of what may be true.

But there are pseudo-'scientists', which you have to constantly en-garde for, the clowns who do the exact opposite of the real scientific process of inquiry. Instead, they try to 'prove' their hypothesis and theories, or those of others, in order to build a group-think consensus in order to attract public money and political policy support.

It's a form of common crookedness and corruption you see.

And these people who do this ALWAYS turn out to be wrong, it just takes time to get rid of them because they don't accept that falsification means you set aside the hypothesis or theory. So this crooked corruption of science always does great damage to the process and progress of discovery and analysis of what may be a whiter-shade of true-ish.

Thus the empirical falsification of theories philosophy is what matters the most in science advancement, as it always wins in the end of the time-wasting 'consensus-builders', who hold everyone back from deeper understanding of what may be more approximately true.

However, when you look at the institutions of science and state, and the MSM and public perceptions of what 'science' is these days, they all have been deluded into thinking this completely false and incorrect presumption, that science is all about building-up theories and consensus.

This common view could not possibly be any more wrong! The very nature, 'mission' and role of real science inquiry and advancement is to perpetually demolish both theories and the consensus-making of crooks and snake-oil peddlers.

 

This is rambling a bit, I know, but if we're supposed to group-think a consensus that you prefer I predict appropriate rejection is coming your way. It isn't about establishing what seems right to you, it's about uncovering and putting on to open display, what's clearly empirically wrong, and false, so that we're closer to approximating what may actually be more correct.

That's something Tyler(s) and the zero hedge commenters do better than almost any other blog that daily empirically examines and exposes all these fraught topics, in order to falsify.

A broad-brush complaint and condemning of people for rejecting your pet alternate view does not make them bias-seekers, or of no "substance" (though they may be) it just means your arguments and empirical evidence and falsification isn't convincing them as much as your own bias-seeking convinced you that your theory about reality is 'true'.

This is fight-club, or at least it should be, and getting smacked-down is how we approximate what MAY be more true.

If you think you know the truth and want a consensus created around it ... by all means, go for gold ... or go home ...

But just don't give us the shits with the high-handed poop about "people of substance".

 

EDIT:

Orly, I just want to add on the end here that I think most of your strange rancor at zh commenters appears rooted primarily in your simmering disputes with akak over the USD Index and inflation. It's about time you got over it. akak presented a solid arguments quite some time back, and you almost entirely failed to directly address and falsify his points with empirical evidence. Nor did you acknowledge and accept that he had in fact falsified your position. OK?

So it's you who have clung-on to a lack of logic, or dare I say it, "substance".

Instead you notably failed to engage him almost at all once he'd produced solid lines of logic and evidence that over-turned your hypothesis, which meant your key opinions and assertions were more or less invalidated. That ain't good enough. The onus is not on others to take you seriously, at that point, if you won't accept you have no counter, and are more or less demonstrated to be incorrect. Because if you were interested in approximating more closely to what may actually be true, and not just digging yourself a pointless hole, you would have learned, moved-on, and adjusted.

That's not something you can get away with just using to piss on everyone at zh, who having seen this may now feel you aren't actually being honest or serious. Who cares whether you have an "alternative" take on things, if your axiomatic founding presumptions have been falsified already and you had no retort, then, or since?

So what are you going to do about this? By the look of it you seem to be getting ready to chuck-a-wobbly and stomp-off ranting and pretending you've been treated badly by all those bias-seeking idiots at zh, eh?

And I do agree, there are plenty of bias-seekers in here, but so damn what? Diversity of contrary views is also where the non-consensus 'fringe-dwellers', who turnout to be more approximately right, also come from.

But how the hell are you ever going to know or recognize a more-correct fringe view-point, if you aren't even prepared to accept the pretty clearly demonstrated falsification of your own positions? How does any of it help you? Clearly you wouldn't be able to see it.

Alternatively you just don't give a damn about that stuff.

In which case, yeah, great Orly, whatever, you win, you're too clever to be hanging around here.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:50 | 4263457 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Ludicrous speed has indeed been reached!

Victory is ours!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:51 | 4263458 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Even whoppers like this won't help l Zero  get a boost in his approval ratings. People know what's going on. The fricken malls are empty when compared to years past and everybody is talking about cutting back. People just don't have any freaking money.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:52 | 4263470 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I think the approval ratings reflect the back of the mind of the American people:

They know they are fucked, but still keep drinking from the spiked bunch bowl, anyways.

The people who we think are in power don't change shit, and that's slowly starting to become a reality now. 

Money in politics has been a problem for 2000+ years.  It will never change (until someone gets violent about it...because that how it works). 

Jesus railed against this in his time, and the populace collectively stuck a cross up his ass for it.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:00 | 4263487 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

But but Uncle Warren, didn't you hear? 4% growth! Stop pissing in the punch bowl!

The 130-year-old paint brand, struggling under the ownership of billionaire Warren Buffett, told employees at its Montvale, NJ, offices last week it has frozen their pension plans, even as it continues to fire workers, as first reported on nypost.com.

The lumps of holiday coal come courtesy of Buffett’s 29-year-old financial assistant, Tracy Britt Cool, whom he installed last year as chairman of Benjamin Moore after taking the rare step of firing a former CEO.

“Tracy is remaking the company into her own image — a kid’s image,” one former exec said of the Harvard-educated number-cruncher. “She’s eliminating all the incentives for company veterans to stay so she can hire a bunch of kids to replace them on the cheap.”

http://nypost.com/2013/12/19/benjamin-moores-20-something-boss-freezes-pensions-cuts-it-jobs/

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:09 | 4263516 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Reanimate the death panels!   And put some gays and transwhatevers in charge, they make the best bullies.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:56 | 4263677 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I do not attend The Church of the Perpetually Offended for that very reason!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:13 | 4263517 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Since they are staffing the company with low paid kids, I guess Warren doesn't have to worry about whether or not he pays less taxes than them seeing that they won't have any. They won't be able to eat either, but hey who needs to eat? 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:13 | 4263533 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well whatever it takes to preserve those federal pensions, we need to do Doc. Because you see they signed a contract, that somehow included my taxes. so good for them, unlike those private worker idiots, who forgot to include my taxes in their negotiations. Haha! Idiots.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:54 | 4263669 RSloane
RSloane's picture

If we continue on the present trajectory, Fonz, we will all be paying higher and higher taxes to be included in private labor negotiations. We must do whatever it takes to keep Michelle proud of this country.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:23 | 4263563 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Let them eat paint.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:10 | 4263518 toady
toady's picture

The race to the bottom continues.

And hiring kids? They're young & they've got their health, what would they want with a job?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:11 | 4263519 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Nobody can learn how to be a good CEO until they've killed a few insignificant 100+ year old companies and sent a few thousand employees into the waiting arms of government entitlements.

Remember, you learn more from your mistakes than you do from your successes.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:13 | 4263523 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

Enter: Generational Warfare

Things aren't gonna go so well for the oldsters/Boomers from the up-and-comers.

Get the fuck outta the way, granpa.

Who can blame them?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:28 | 4263573 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

A 29 year old put in charge of a 130 year old company. What could go wrong? This story makes me want to throw up. Like it takes skill to hollow out a company.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:36 | 4263604 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well we tried the boomers and look where that got us. Maybe we should go with a 5 year old. Get them in charge before they get corrupted.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:41 | 4263620 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I find it interesting that you should suggest that Benjamin Moore is being remade into "a kid's image". There seems to be a lot of that sort of dumbing down going around these days. Some of the ads for Obamacare are downright creepy if you consider them from an adult point of view; they seem to appeal to the average 6-year-old, what with the ditties being sung and the imagery. Is this the result of decades of dumbing down our public education system? All we have left in the younger generations are children?

Are we on the verge of descending into two races, the Morlocks (producers) and Eloi (childlike)? Are 'sheeple' equivalent to the Eloi, upon whom the Morlocks (TPTB?) prey?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:58 | 4263685 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I heard on CNBC that ole Warren really knows how to run a company. Zero loves him. What could possibly go wrong?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:32 | 4263588 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Mostly I'll agree with you, but Jesus objected to the moneychangers in the temple if that's what you were referring to. He also warned against making Money into a replacement for God in one's priorities. His comments had nothing to do with politics or money in politics.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 12:35 | 4264024 walküre
walküre's picture

True except for the "Jesus" part. The character JC didn't like Jews but made sure the world would know to pay taxes. Who were the biggest tax collectors of that time? The Roman empire. Who occupied the Jews and hated their guts because it cost alot of money to fight them and maintain the outpost in the desert? The Roman empire. Finally, who really stood to benefit mostly from inventing "JC" the character, the story of a peaceful messiah and eternalize the guy for all times? From a Romans emperor's perspective where Rome was the everlasting empire, it made perfect sense to make the whole story up and conquer hearts and minds of Jews and other potential "terrorists of the Roman Empire". Propaganda works and the Nazis, USSR or US hardly invented propaganda for their political gain.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:51 | 4263460 new game
new game's picture

recycling numbers - the new green...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:50 | 4263462 toady
toady's picture

Musta sold off all those channels they be stuffin'. But who was buying?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:53 | 4263466 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The numbers were approved by Bernanke and Obama before the release.

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:54 | 4263468 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Anyone know why change in farm inventories is at a record high:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B018RC1Q027SBEA

This is a big component of GDP.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:58 | 4263488 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Nice catch and a rather large outlier, eh?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:05 | 4263501 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Yeah and since all that inventory will ultimately be drawn down, it will have a negative impact on future GDP.  But who cares about the future, let's only pay attention to the headline number.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:12 | 4263512 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That's odd.  Our inventory of sorghum is high, but other than that we pretty much sold out of apples, peaches, pecans, and walnuts.

All heading to Asia.  Nice catch, smells fishy to me.  Anyway to find out what these "inventories" actually are?

Cost of fertilizer and labor going up, this will be passed on to the customer, I can promise you that.  If you want to see chaos, forget about interest rates, wait until the .gov loses control of food costs in this country.

FYI- sorghum that is not sold in the next week will be pressed and I will be making rum out of the syrup.  Still working on/contemplating selling this online for bitcoin/litecoin.  Will keep everyone posted.  Not an easy task considering everyting else on my plate right now.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:18 | 4263543 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

"Fishy" is right.  The "change" doesn't even correlate at all with the total inventories:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/B372RC1Q027SBEA?cid=33038

The BEA wouldn't make up numbers on us would they?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:18 | 4263545 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> wait until the .gov loses control of food costs in this country.

They're just about out of control now - and why this shit can't go on much longer.

And precious metals continue to be priced under production cost.

Lol. Truth, these days, is not only stranger than fiction ... it's stranger than surreality. Shakespeare couldn't write this one if he had to.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:47 | 4263635 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

President Nixon - the first, not the current - had an answer to food costs: wage and price controls. Not that it worked out all that well, but Barack Milhouse Obama has granted himself the power to take any steps he deems necessary to avert any emergency he perceives. That includes confiscating just about anything we have.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:55 | 4263872 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  LoP how do you get around this?  TTB.gov | Alcohol FAQs | General Alcohol FAQs

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:08 | 4263514 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

What the hell is farm inventory ?

Unsold turnips or something.

It sounds like an oxymoron.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:22 | 4263559 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Farm inventory is Monsanto food. It has the same shelf life as cardboard.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:48 | 4263639 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

But cardboard tastes better and has more nutrional value.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:15 | 4263727 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

I'm not positive if large equipment would make it into the farm inventory but of it is, I bet it is because of taxes. More specifically, this is the last year to get large equipment depreciated all at once, instead of over 10 years, greatly reducing a farmers tax liability. This was something they did a few years back to help stimulate the economy by having farmers get a huge deduction for those million dollar tractors. Most big operations have been trading in slightly used equipment for new every year to take advantage of this. It expires in 2014 so I'd bet the equipment inventory would have a huge spike this year.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 13:26 | 4264238 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Maybe in Newspeak but inventory is supposed to be 'stock in/for  trade'.

Accelerated capital tax allowances only apply to plant and equipment.

Something is beyond fishy.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:55 | 4263473 bh2
bh2's picture

Who takes government-sponsored economic stats seriously?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:56 | 4263478 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The numbers were approved by Bernanke and Obama before the release.

Auto sales are so good their offering 0% for 72 months.

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:04 | 4263503 max2205
max2205's picture

This is the Democrats kick off number for the 2014 elections...rosier numbers ahead for the sheepie to be amazed at before they vote again.....love them tatters

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:55 | 4263480 youngman
youngman's picture

All this growth and no inflation! Lawdy Lawd Lawd it's a Christmas miracle!

Do not buy any red meat this Christmas...you might be suprised

When the going gets tough....the tough get fudging...they need to get the sheeple to think all is well as Obamacare destroys the  healthcare sector...its just 16% of the economy...I cant wait for the new CBO estimates....this will be fun

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:57 | 4263481 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

why, why would anyone believe this?  if you like your gdp, you can keep your gdp. from a government of liars

 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:55 | 4263482 JiminGA
JiminGA's picture

If you like your GDP you can keep your GDP.  Sounds about right from this administration.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 09:57 | 4263484 JiminGA
JiminGA's picture

If you like your GDP you can keep your GDP.  Sounds about right from this administration.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:03 | 4263496 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

What's clear now to everyone is that we are past the point of trying to be fiscally responsible ANYWHERE in the world.  What is important now is that everyone got a taste of Depression in 2008-9, nobody wants to go back there, the last of the voices of dissent on hyper money printing, debt escalation, data lying have been suppressed.  What will occur now is perhaps 5 years of THROWING MONEY AT IT.  The Nightly news will talk about 4.1% GDP growth and Joe the Plumber will scratch his head because everyone he knows is out of work and can't afford a bag of food anymore.  This BAFFLE EM WITH BULLSHIT will work for quite a while because a new Angry Birds XI will come out and hungry people will be amused for a while again.  Behind this curtain of DO WHAT IT TAKES TO KEEP EM OUT OF THE STREETS, will be the quiet (except on ZH) stories of decay, rot, greed as the 1% uses this money printing to build billionaire ships and islands with drone defense surveillance.  Finally Japan will collapse (either because Tokyo goes down in a 9.0 earthquake) as no one wants to give their government another dime.  Uses this time to get your ducks in a row...know where you want to be when the final moment comes...it is coming.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:21 | 4263555 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> What is important now is that everyone got a taste of Depression in 2008-9, nobody wants to go back there.

Bah. Between the drugs, toxic food, smart objects/Wi-Fi and chemtrails all creating a brain fog - who the fuck can remember that long ago?

What was I talking about?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:39 | 4264643 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Reminds me of that scene in the Godfather where all the heads of the families are meeting and they are discussing the role of the mafia in narcotics. One said he didn't want it near the schools or other good places, but would be fine if it was in the "colored" areas. TPTB now think the whole world is the "colored" area. And I'm not talking racisim here.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:03 | 4263499 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Can anyone decipher what part of this growth was due to the change in the GDP calculations?

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:05 | 4263505 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

372 bps

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:04 | 4263502 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, you just knew the news would be good.  Hey look, the premium on wealth insurance is going down!  Don't complain, just they thank you and buy more physical.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:06 | 4263504 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Yeah, jam that price on WTI.  The US consumer has more money to spend on burning fuel than thought. 

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:12 | 4263520 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Look at the 10yr rates leaking higher. Fed is going to have some serious issues on its hands considering how hard it is already sitting on rates. If this gets out of control, along with all the new regs hitting in 2014...Q1 is going to get messy really quick.

 

Cripes ZH, I know you have bills to pay, but I just got mauled by a full page chase pop-up ad....

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:15 | 4263542 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Country is nothing more than a big con game for the Washinbgton and Wall Street Whores!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:19 | 4263551 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I'm going grocery shopping today, and I'm going to get in the longest checkout line and yell at the top of my lungs, "there's no inflation, look how cheap my food was!"

  Then I'm going to run to my car before I'm beaten to death by a herd of soccer moms...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:36 | 4263595 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I had the most expensive ground beef that I ever bought last night.  Funny thing was that it did not taste any different...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:49 | 4263651 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    You need to ask for extra 'pink slime' flavor enhancer next time :-)

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:52 | 4263657 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Clearly the fault lies in your taste buds. Hedonic adjustments show that the quality of ground beef is higher than ever, more than enough to offset higher prices. Ergo we have price deflation in the area of ground beef. 

(Gee, I just realized how much fun it is to create this sort of BS. I think I'm gonna apply for a job with the BEA, or BLS, or maybe as an assistant to Zero.)

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:22 | 4263556 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Needs moar taper.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:27 | 4263569 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I know most people here don't give a shit about technical analysis, but given that a lot of people do believe it has some value, I would like to point out that the 10-year bond has broken out of the 32-year downtrend it has been in (since 1981).  The 10-year might be about to lurch higher.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 14:42 | 4264653 SDShack
SDShack's picture

The Anti Plunge Protrection Team will get on that this afternoon...

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:38 | 4263583 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

So corporate profits after taxes for the year ending September have gone from 8.22%(9/12) to 4.67%(9/13).

How is that an improvement and sign of a strengthening economy?

And what will busineses be doing to restore that profitability?  Oh yes...cutting jobs.

 

BTW, that's the lowest rate of profit growth for the last four years, despite $1 trillion in QE3.

 

Year over year profit growth AFTER taxes:

2010:  21.9%

2011:    8.68%

2012:    8.22%

2013:   4.67%

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:31 | 4263585 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Proof that you can print GDP.  Can't wait to see how great it is when gum is $10 a stick.  And that is coming.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:33 | 4263589 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Take away Government hands outs and Fed's QE, Then use Shadow stats inflation numbers and recalculate using old GDP algo for me please... Tell me the good news again

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:34 | 4263599 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Watch for FX action in an attempt to keep rates under control. Central banksters will be scrambling to push USD down.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:38 | 4263610 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Strong $ kills recovery.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 10:49 | 4263646 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Sequentially, the ever missing personal consumption was revised up 2%"

 

I thought GDP meant production, not consumption.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:01 | 4263690 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Just for the heck of it, I'll "buy" this BS number. OK, GDP is flying. Great. So, why no inflation?

Here's my theory: The Fed is pumping with both fists, yet the velocity of money won't increase. Two reasons:

1. Race to the bottom competition, primarily the retailers, especially Walmart vs. the dollar stores. Since wages aren't rising, people are forced into alternatives. Dollar stores are winning for now, but Walmart will unleash its loss leaders after Christmas (which will be the shittiest in years, though we're likely to hear that holiday shopping was "OK") and unload inventory.

2. Sheeple deleveraging. Population is aging (at 60, I'm proof of that), and, as people get older, they simply don't need as much. Less food because they don't expend as much energy, less buying because they have pretty much what they need (this falls over into the argument of massive oversupply of just about everything since 2006), plus they don't like debt, and are paying it down. Credit card use may be high, but a lot of people are paying off the balance - or at least what they spent in the past month - every statement, and more.

So, total credit is up 1.65% in the latest quarter, but debt was being paid down at roughly the same rate or at a rate fast enough to be destroying more debt than the Fed would like. What the Fed wants is people taking on more debt but not paying off so quickly. Real Estate is a huge factor here, and with 30% of all residential being paid in cash, that really brings down the overall debt load. Credit is still pretty tight. The Feds and banks need to loosen up credit more (I know, unbelievable!) to get the inflation needed for economic liftoff, otherwise known as serious ass-raping of consumers like we had in 2001-2005.

It isn't happening yet, but they're working on it. Enjoy this small taste of deflation for now because it certainly can't last. Our economic masters can't have that. Ergo, if people are paying down debt quickly, it's time to raise interest rates, which is exactly what they're doing with their so-called "taper." They could care what that does to consumers and they care less what it does to the federal balance sheet. In fact, the Bernanke even said fiscal policy was tight in his last presser. Spend, Congress, spend!

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:06 | 4263719 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Looks like the Communists in Washington and on Wall St. are desperately trying to get the Sheep to capitulate and buy this horseshit. Sadly, our country is mostly sheep (led by Pinko Commies). However, I firmly believe Truth will shine before this is over and the Commies will reap what they fraudulently have sown.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:41 | 4263817 adr
adr's picture

Nothing sells unless it is on sale. There was a large inventory of Ninja Turtles sitting unsold at Target. They put them on sale for $7 with a buy one get one 50% off. There is not a Ninja Turtle left at Target.

I really funny observation was the leftover doorbusters from Black Friday were back on the floor, still in thier Black Friday cardboard displays. Dozens of $199 TVs, $50 speakerdocks, even Nook tablets on sale for $99 instead of $79. Even the $99 Dodge Viper Lower Wheel was back.

In years past people would buy the products even if they didn't need them just because they were such a good deal. Really when can you buy a 32" LED TV for $199 again. Even if you don't need it you can give grandma a new TV to replace her 20 year old 14" CRT she watches the nighy news on.

When thing get worse, the lies become greater. I haven't seen a quarter in real business worse than Q3 2013 in the past 15 years. The government still believes that if they say things are great, people will ignore what they plainly see and believe them.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 11:43 | 4263827 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Barry's Growth Plan

 

Q1 GDP = Channel Stuffing - ew -ah

 

Q2 GDP = Channel Stuffing - ew -ah

 

Q3 GDP = Channel Stuffing - ew -ah

 

Q4 GDP = Channel Stuffing - ew -ah

 

Fuck you Barry and your dogshit family

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 12:42 | 4264048 Chief Falling Knife
Chief Falling Knife's picture

4.1%?  Let me guess, cumulative hits on Twitter and F Book are now somehow added to GDP.

Fri, 12/20/2013 - 13:52 | 4264385 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Yeah, that could have been worth a massive $5 billion in additional non-taper!

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