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Guest Post: The Case For Owning Farmland (In One Simple Statistic)
Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,
In investing, it’s often said that nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
Stocks, bonds, commodities… they all go through periods of growth, correction, collapse, mania, etc.
We’re seeing this right now with respect to a substantial decline in the nominal gold price after more than 12 straight years of gains.
But I’ve just recently come across an investment trend that has posted the same results for more than 20-years straight. And it’s actually quite alarming.
Every human being on the planet requires sustenance… typically measured in Calories per day.
What’s interesting is that the global average of per-capita Calorie consumption has increased a whopping 24.6% since 1964.
So over the last fifty years, the data clearly show that human beings are eating more… now to an average of roughly 2,940 Calories per person per day.
As you can probably guess, most of the rise has taken place in East Asia just over the last two decades, owing to the increased wealth in that part of the world.
Roughly a billion people have been lifted out of poverty in Asia alone. And as people begin to generate income and accumulate savings, their dietary habits have invariably changed. They eat more, i.e. demand more Calories.
As we eat more, we require more resources from the world. And in the case of food, this means more arable land to grow crops.
But there’s another twist to this trend. As people become wealthier, they not only eat more, but they also begin to consume more resource consumptive foods– especially meat.
It takes a lot more land to grow a kilogram of beef than it does to grow a kilogram of tomatoes. The difference can often be an order of magnitude greater.
So when you look at the demand side of this equation, per capita food consumption is increasing… and we are also consuming a vastly greater amount of land-intensive foods.
In short, the global trend is that we are demanding a much greater amount of arable land per person.
Yet the data on the supply side show the precise opposite.
According to World Bank data, the global average of arable land per person has been on a one-way decline since 1992.
In fact, since 1964, there has only been one year that the global average of arable land per person has increased. In every other instance over the last five decades, arable land per person has declined.
This is an astounding trend.
Our modern ‘science’ is stepping in to address this trend. It’s why much of what we eat is now concocted in a laboratory rather than grown on a farm. It’s why McDonalds puts pink slime in its hamburgers instead of… you know… beef.
But even still, science only goes so far.
Yields for many staple crops (like wheat) essentially hit a wall about ten years ago. After decades of miraculous gains in the amount of tons, bushels, and kilograms per acre we have been able to extract from the Earth, productive capacity has largely plateaued.
In other words, we have maxed out what we can pull out of the soil for now. And the amount of soil per person that’s in production is in serious decline.
To me, this spells out an obvious case for investing in agriculture… and even more specifically, to own farmland.
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By that was always the case especially in the South. It is staggering if you go back and look at the amount of tennant farmers (black and white) or sharecroppers in every state that was on the border/part of the Confederacy in the late 19th century and early 20th century. Race was always used by the wealthy landowners especially in MS and AL to keep the sharecroppers in their place and behind an 8-ball. One really harvest bad season and they were perpetually f@cked and couldn't get out of hock.
ok hint.
Do not try to compete with the billion hectare agribusinesses. Take a look at what they produce and avoid it like the plague. If you are going to do this you need to reintroduce diversity and that means marketing something out of the ordinary.
Let's not forget the fun of running around naked if you want to.
Yep. Or being able to dig post holes in your underwear on a 90 degree day. No one is the wiser....errr, except that day the UPS guy wheeled into the yard.
...or being able to pattern one's shotgun
without going to a range,
host a rave for the kids,
swim and hot tub naked,
and have badass dogs.
These are a few of my favorite things.
host a rave for the kids,
ya mon, one of the top items on my property purchase checklist is how loud i can turn up my sound system without getting a neighbor in a tizzy. not easy to find these days, at least in my neck of the woods.
And piss where and when you want to...
I learned to farm as a kid on my Grandpa's farm outside a town in Iowa. Today my Grandma rents this same land out as Grandpa has passed and has more money now from renting then she ever had acutally farming. Shoot Grandma is constantly havign to ask what to do with all this cash. Farming in the mid 50' to late 90's the grandparents never had this kind of cash to manage.
In my area, the price for farmland was between $50k-$100K per acre last time I looked. It appears to exceed ROI for most crops, after expenses.
Yes, many farmers have sold out to take advantage of higher land prices.
For existing farmers, farming is a crap shoot.
Even growing your own backyard tomato plants can easily be MOAR expensive than just buying tomatoes from the supermarket, but I'm sure it's more fun to grow your own stuff and it'd be fresher to boot.
Growing in my backyard is a crapshoot. Maybe. I'm guessing you have never grown a single thing in your life much less eaten something fresh off the plant. In fact I consider going to and buying stuff from stores a crap shoot on whether I'm going to be poisoned or nutritionally deficient.
I have been talking to a lot of people about increasing health problems (not just for adults but for infants now as well) and their relation to food that simply isn't as healthy anymore.
Growing in the back yard won't just be something that's fun it will be required if you want to have any chance of staying healty. Virtually anything that comes out of my backyard is more flavorful by almost an order of magnitude now than the comparable purchased in a store. Stuff in stores tastes mostly like shit and is nutritionally deficient.
And pay attention fellow human, prices arn't going down, the taste and above all how it comes out after being used will tell you all you need to know about the quality of the food you ate.
The difference between a salad made from freshly picked vegetables and greens and anything you can buy is far beyond just taste.
As to expense, how much is your health worth again?
Yessir. It tastes better and generally has a higher nutrient content. I have found that I am far more likely to eat vegetables that I grew simply because of the taste.
And once you have a garden growing, you can start saving your own seed to eliminate some of the expense. Just make sure that you are on the lookout for inbreeding depression.
I get my 100% daily minimum lead requirements by growing broccolli under the window sills !!!
No way on the tomatoes if you grow them yourself from seed and make your own compost. Plus, after you grown them for a year you can just harvest, dry, and save the seeds from next year.
I still can't stand the tomatoes that the US gets in the winter and will just buy canned tomatoes instead. Grew up in an Italian household on my Mom's side and we just ate either canned tomatoes in the winter or simply didn't eat them.
Where is that? Because Iowa farmland topped out at $20K per acre last year.
SoCal. Too much money chasing the romance and mystique of owning a farm.
Well, with the prices being bandied about, I am feeling a little better about my $10K per acre in South Carolina (3.5 acres). The land is hilly and some of it red clay, so I am figuring on some amendment, but it's where I want to be and has a river on one border and forest on two others.
My goals are to grow most of my own food, get off the grid, eat well, stay in good shape and retire on my terms (I'm 60 and still can't quite understand why almost all my friends continue working when they have nest eggs at or above $400K).
Anyhow, I have two years of backyard gardening under my belt (my cucumbers were the talk of the town) and am ready to take the plunge this Spring. I have ample income from my web business and can afford some mistakes, plus I got great terms on the property from the owner and there's as much as 20 acres adjacent which I might eventually be able to integrate.
I'm loving this thread, one of the best ever on ZH. Thanks to all you farmhands for valuable info, especially the guy who grows 6000 lbs of food on 1/10th acre. Inspiring.
Happy Holidays to the best commentators on the internet!
even Sotheby's is pitching the "organic farming" meme on some of their property listings. funny thing is that on almost all those props, if you look at the USDA soil maps, the soils are shit for veg growing and/or using traditional "organic" methods.
did you misplace a decimal point somewheres? some of the best farmland in the prairie goes for $10-12K/acre. where do you live?
http://www.agweek.com/event/article/id/20228/
edit: ah... nm. i see you're a fellow cali resident. i'm actually in the process of selling off my last asset in that f'd up state. i'll be running away to the northwest very soon.
"Since 1964".....what's so special about that number ?
That's when U.S. President Lyndon Johnson and the Democrats declare a "War on Poverty", as part of their Great Society program. That was the beginning of the banana republic we have today, ain't it Great.
That's the year Simon Black was hatched, and he's been eatin' 'round the world since.
Bullshit, It's an artificial shortage. There's no shortage of farmland, but "modern" farming practices are destroying the topsoil and soil flora in much of the farm belt at an alarming rate. Despite this, there's still plenty of tillable, but less than ideal ground. For example: If every yard and freeway median was turned into gardens, you could feed the US just with that.
Beef is an inefficient and protein sparse animal. Compared to yaks, elk or other animals which can live on the nastiest alpine ground you could imagine and are also 2-3 times more nutrient dense, cattle suck. Native buffalo are also much lower impact on root structure (they don't rip the roots out) and are more protein dense.
Resource scarcity is complete bullshit. Economics solves scarcity when natural markets are allowed to operate. For a full explanation, read Julian Simon's "Ultimate Resource 2".
Golf courses=>community gardens. Iirrigation systems in place.
bingo
who will be paying for the water and fertillizer once you close the club and stop collecting the membership fees?
haha, funny to see you here. nothing like the LOP to dump a cold glass of reality on an anarchist fantasy ;~)
was actually about to edit, and note that it would be a bitch to clean out all the herbicide out of the soil. to answer your question, would say that the costs are largely a matter of design and working with the natural contours of the terrain, nonetheless, point taken. seriously though, a golf club could probably plant certain crops (thinking perennials) and still have it be a working golf course.
p.s. good call on those pecans. been learning about almonds lately. did you know that they're deer-proof?
Yes--and many 2-5 acre estates with sprinklers in place. Rent out a room or two for out of work persons and you have what will almost certainly happen. Milestones
Cripes man don't be so mean. What is a market? I have heard of them, but from my understanding the government must be involved to keep natural markets moving in the right direction.
not only that, but aquaculture provides 10x the protein per acre of land.
fish, bitchez.
p.s. yaks rock...my favorite animal on the planet bar none. low-maintenance (especially if you got woods), not susceptible to the worms coming from the white-tailed deer invasion, and an excellent deterrent against your local top predators.
I'm looking into that further. Have a few treed acres of bush fenced in already.
sweet. they're expensive, but maintenance/feed costs are much lower than cattle. plus they're super cool and if trained properly can do a lot of the work that most do on a tractor (as long as you're willing to go at their speed). they respect simple fencing as well.
Yes there is a shortage of arable and highly productive land that has good water sources/annual rainfall especially for a commerically-viable farm for crop and soybeans. Farming to supplement for a single family/individual on a small plot of land is a completely different concept though.
You mean commercially viable farm crops like GMO soybeans and GMO corn that are causing bee population collapse, killing the living topsoil, and pumping the ground water to depletion? All this will destroy that precious farm ground in it's current state. No thank you.
There must and will be an agriculture revolution and complete paradigm shift in how food is grown. Mega corporate farms growing mono-crops will and must go away. The future is clear and it's the model similar to Polyface farms that works with nature rather than fighting it. To survive, these systems must de-scale back to a family based and small-scale local systems.
Then people will starve globally. The hype about GMO too has largely been BS and there is yet a single comprehensive article in any peer-reviewed mainstream journal that shows a dramatically pronounced and systematic effect on acreage yield for soybeans and corn let alone the ROI on the upfront investment and other things a farm needs to buy.
Normally I hate the cliched 'Company X is evil' but with Monsanto damn it is hard not to think that way from the stuff they have done including in Vietnam to what they are trying to do in corning the global seed market.
great posts Sgt
I think in the future that real meat will be a luxury, only affordable by the rich and for special occasions by the poor.
Even with soylent green available?
Always has been historically even in the US. It wasn't until refrigerated box cars adn several other invetions after the Civil War that meat became mroe of a US staple.
beef and fish, yes. chicken and rabbit (and possible goat) are not that encumbersome.
Sold 160 acres of farm land in Minnesota last year at what I think was the top of the market for this cycle. Still have 80. Land prices go up and down.
I grew up in W Michigan and because I was an avid pheasant and rabbit hunter I had permission to hunt on many smaller dairy operations. The 80 to 90 head Holstein farm on 120 to 240 acres of land was common place back in 70s and 80s. Those farms are long gone. I also worked many summers baling hay and helping with milking and fencing etc. Back then large families guaranteed a captive work crew for the farmers. Kids grew up wanting to move to the city and it began the death of the family farm. The ones that stayed consolidated and grew in size and resulted in the need for bigger dairy herds and hired help. Now days there are huge commercial dairy operations. Everything changes but unless you have actually worked on a working farm I think very few appreciate what grabbing that gallon of milk in the dairy case at the store entails. I also worked in orchards growing up. Picking fruit, planting, spraying, pruning trees in winter. It is all work and there are no 40 hour work weeks. There is an independence in working the land that goes against all this government is trying to take away. You don't go out as a lay person and decide to become an orchard grower or a dairy or beef farmer. The capital investment in just land and equipment is astronimical and usually aquired over generations. The knowledge and at times gut wrenching fight with nature to sustain a profitable business is not learned in an agricultural college course. If you enjoy beef, poultry, pork or lamb thank a farmer. If you enjoy fruit and vegetables, thank a farmer. If you enjoy eating, thank a farmer. I am not a farmer but on behalf of all of you that might be, I say a hearty thank you.
I spent a season doing tax returns for small farms in southwest Ontario. These guys work hard, many holding down a regular job in the city, while working every night and weekend on the farm. They didn't make much, and for many the big hope was that the city would expand out to them, so they could sell off the farm to developers.
As my boss told me, 'farmers live poor and die rich'. My hat's off to any one who works the land so I can enjoy the fruits of their labour.
It wouldn't be so bad if a few of the fat-asses around here ate a little less...
If I had a nice property out in the country, I would get ready for a collapse by putting in a big garden, some chickens, and some rabbits raised in the barns.
If the SHTF, I would have some canned vegetables and a stealthy supply of rabbit meat nobody would know about. They are deeelicious. Chickens are a lot of meat for the money, but everyone could see them and they wouldn't last long.
My idea of a 'farm'.
That is why you only eat a hen after she can't produce any more eggs. By then she is tough as hell but there are always several ways to break down the toughest and oldest animal flesh.
Chicken historically wasn't even a US staple until into 20th century and after WW2 when processing and other improvements made it a lot easier. US has been history a pork nation and Cincinnati was dubbed 'Porkolopis' in the 1830s.
"I think in the future that real meat will be a luxury, only affordable by the rich and for special occasions by the poor."
That special occasion being when the poor eat the rich.
Bill Gates was in the trenches of the Egyptian "Arab Spring" he literally "backed" the Muslim rebels whom immediately sold off huge tracts of state agribusiness lands while there was blood in the streets.
The worlds riches man literally bought real estate while there was blood in the streets, they even spun it as a humanitarian gesture and "investment" in Egypt.
Owning farmland is great if you bought it at $5000 per acre in the last 10 years in Midwest USA. The highest sales $10K to $12K for the best Iowa farmground looks silly with corn at $3.50 to $4 per bushel. All at once its not a speculative investment...just a stoopid one.
Lessee now.. corn yield ~150 bushels/acre, corn at $3.75/bushel gives $560/acre. You can't amortize land, AFAIK, but let's say you get these relative prices for 50 years, so your $10k acre cost you $200/year. Now, the big question is how much do seed, fertilizer, and labour to bring the crop in cost? Of course, you can't plant corn every year, so you plant soybeans to revitalise the soil every 3rd year. Soybeans only yield 40 bushel/acre, but you get about $13/bushel, giving you about $520/acre, so much the same economics applies. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that land/seed/fertilizer/etc. make up 80% of your final proceeds, so your net is $110/acre.
$100k in ten year bonds gives me cash flow of 2.5%, or $2,500/year all of it taxable, and at the end of ten years, I have 100k in FRN's that are worth, assuredly, less than my $100k in FRN's presently in terms of buying power. Ten acres of corn/beans gives me $1,100 per year gross, not all of it taxable, (I hope someone knowledgeable about farming can correct/confirm my net), and at the end of 10 years, I still have ten acres of productive farmland, which is probably worth more in FRN's than it was when I paid for it.
Depending on what the net farming figure is, I can't definitively say that buying the farmland was 'stoopid'.
Good math
Or less.
If it gets worse, they could give you a haircut on that 2.5% 10 year paper as well.
In today's market March 14 corn closed at $4.33 with December 14 Closing at $4.60. It also depends on how you are using the corn, the basis points at ADM or Cargill OR are you feeding cattle or swine?
It is still profitable just not as much as it was with $6.00 corn. ISU Land survey still showed a state wide increase of 5%YOY.
One thing about land, they're not making anymore of it.
funny story about rural land especially now that 80+% of americans live in an urban/exurban environment. back in the 70s when environmental rules, canadian competition and the general recession made loggers and holders of logging land reasses the future. one guy decided to subdivide his several hundred acres along a river into one acre lots. his target market were flat landers. they would come up to the mountains on weekend visits compliments of the new interstate and fall in love with the bucolic romance of it all and this guy would lure them in with a sales store featuring a large sign screaming how cheap it is to own a home in paradise. at the time an improved lot(subdivided with electric), ready to build could be bought for 1000 dollars and a camp built wholesale for a coupla thousand dollars literally. the guy was selling packages for three times his cost using a contract with a right of first refusal clause. locals thought he was crazy because the price was ridiculous for a local but dirt cheap for a flatlander.
the lots sold out over the course of several years. many homes were built. it turns out the flatlanders would buy the lots and homes then find out that 1. don't have time for it. 2. is too expensive to keep up. 3. realized that only 8 weeks out of the year were safe to visit between mud season and winter. 4. at the time there was nothing to do after 6 except to go to a restaurant 15 miles away that closed at 9. they would want to sell but since no local would buy the properties and the right of first refusal pretty much tied the owners to the developer who was advertising to flatlanders the developer would convince them to sell for cash for less than their purchase price because he was still selling new homes for virtually the same price they bought at. he would clear another 20-30% on the same home he sold just a few years before.
yea, urbanites moving to the country. green acres comes to mind.
This all assumes their is no grand plan, a magic trick played upon the populous. Remember you only need the land to feed the people, take the people away and you have? Now it's the magic trick you should be looking out for, bottled water from now on!
Investing is also interesting, stand on the moon in front of your shop, filled with everything but don't expect to sell much - with no one around your valued land might as well be that moon...
Hey isn't that what obamacare is about?
A whole bunch of unfunded liabilitys need to move on.
It's for the children!
What happens when the government decides to tax real estate ownership at insane levels in the name of "social equality"? Real estate is an "exposed asset" they know you have it you are at their mercy.
Yeah right. Who is more powerful? The federal gov't or the vested wealthy who own and dominate the real estate market and make the rules of the game?
Farmland usually gets lots of property tax breaks.
As long as it doesn't look like it's making huge money, you're safe. Farmers have always looked more poor than they are, because they invested in tractors and equipment -- which would get dirty and start to rust, but nevertheless were assets.
Those combines and tractors are probably financed by a bank
Sounds good on paper but in reality farmers are a pretty sad lot due to extremely low returns. I have a respectable farm and went about it with eagerness but when you raise product for the wholesale market the buyers beat price down to insane levels (ensuring you lose money despite all the effort or you become a mega farm).
People want food wrapped in plastic and sold for $$/b from a grocery shelf, with artistic labeling, not bundled on the farm and sold in bulk for a fraction cost.
Weekend markets sound good but the patrons are often unwashed liberal looking types you think are ripe for the picking but these pukes want to gouge price more than anyone.
I threw my hands in the air and do it for hobby. Many years the weather doesn't cooperate and you get zero. If I really wanted to make a go of it I could maybe plant berries and do a u-pick deal but all the weirdos coming around to pester you on your own land is a deal killer.
I give some of what I raise on my farm away to friends. they generally offer to buy more....but the idea of me selling a product that I have invested so much effort into isn't worth the money (as crazy as it sounds). If I sell it, I have to deal with the customers and keep them happy. When I give it away as a gift, they think the world of it and I'm not indebted to anybody.
Might not make sense, but I'd rather gift away to whomever I choose than sell it. Every time I give something away, it represents my sweat and life.
Anyway, plus one to your comments.
Bla bla.. peak traffic stats anyone?
You can have all the meat you want, and it's perfectly adapted for your body, unlike red meat.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Make_Room!_Make_Room!
Crop Rotation was eliminated with corporate farming. Prior to 'high tech' monopoly farming, farmers would move crops around the land (e.g., tomatoes in that spot this year, melons the next year, winter wheat the next) which would supplement the land with nutrients naturally along with free roaming domestic farm animals, basically without chemicals and with pollinators that are now becoming extinct.
Technology is not always a good thing, especially when it has not been tested thoroughly; over the past 50 years, perhaps longer, data and the scientific method (if used at all) is manipulated to the advantage of the parties funding the studies.
This is just another example of ignoring history too, this is what caused the 'dust bowls'.
This isn't necessarily true and historically US farmers only started rotating crops in large numbers after the 30s and the disaster of the Dust Bowl and new innovations and policies regarding agricultural science.
"Technology is not always a good thing, especially when it has not been tested thoroughly"
GMOs and topsoil destruction would be the posterboys for that phrase
Here we go with World bank stats again.
Particularly like the old one about how many acres of arable land it takes to raise meat V grain or whatever.
Dunno about your kneck of the woods, but in my country if you tried to grow vegetables on the land we raise beef on, the local farmers would laugh hysterically.
In countries where meat IS actually raised on arable land, it's because it's economically viable.
Fuck this agenda 21 propaganda bullshit.
Fuck farmers. I talk to many of them throughout the year, here in IL and the common theme is always "bitch bitch bitch, farming is soooo hard and we can't make money.....boo hoo!" all the while, they get paid handsomely by the federal government for the simple task of NOT growing a crop that the government would rather them not grow, along with all the other subsidization they get, complete with taxpayer funded crop insurance so they can still make a profit even if their crops fail.
Just once, I'd like take a map of the world down to the local Hardee's, where all the old geezer farmers hang out and point out to them that their land is not nearly as scarce as they seem to think it is. The way they price the stuff, you'd think there were gold bars buried just beneath the top soil.
Another clown tossing out a blanket statement...
If you don't think developed farm land is worth all that much then let's see you go create some new farml and. There's a reason why "stump busters" was a big part of the early US farming lexicon.
There's FAR more farmers NOT getting any subsidies than there are ones getting it.
And, as less ignorant people here have sufficiently noted, WATER is key.
We don't need water we just use Brawndo because it has what plants crave.
Re; The way they price the stuff, you'd think there were gold bars buried just beneath the top soil.
Sir, there will come a time when a sack of potatoes will buy a child.
A sack of potatoes will buy a child right now. E-mail me. He comes with a football but prefers his sister's fingernail polish and usually applying it to the white carpet. His name is "You Little Asshole".
Thanks a lot Simon. You really filled us in with this one. I have a degree in horticulture and I have spent my whole life learning about plants and growing them. If there is one thing I know it is plants and the second thing I know is that you do not know what you are talking about. First of all, you can't afford to own farmland anymore thanks to property taxes. You want some land? I will sell you some.
Then you talk like an ass in that plants just grow themselves somehow. It is just gonna be a big old happy time? Is that how it works? Tell me about the rabbits again George. Simon, you have NO idea what is really going on do you? You are NOT capable of growing so much as a dandelion. Farmland investement my ass. You need to have someone who knows what they are doing in order to manage it and you ain't it. You won't pay us though. Invest all you want but I have a shovel and I know how to use it. It will be interesting to watch you starve.
You didn't even menton apiary. Fail.
Growing things is bloody hard alright.
I'm into my fourth year of growing a hobby garden, and I still regularly lose crops. Once to a massive storm, which really sucked.
Thank God for the fruit trees and chickens, even a dumbass like me can manage those.
I'm starting my aquaponic herb and greens garden soon, I'll probly kill all the fish at some stage, but screw it.
I'm ALMOST ready to buy that property, maybe a couple more years.
Even the "pros" get nailed by weather or such... It's all quite humbling.
I opted to NOT wait (I wasn't getting any younger). Experience is the best teacher. And if you wait too long, if TSHTF before you make the move then what?
Exactly this. +1
I agree. It is not easy at all. Fucking aphids wiped out my peppers two years ago and fucking with my peppers is like... well, it's very bad. I tried everything from soapy water to bifenthrin, to carbaryl, to malathion. I'm not big on the organophosphates to be honest but the little fuckers stopped adapting once they got some malathion. Last summer I did not have any aphids. It just depends on the year.
Alright, who is a big fan of the Colorado potato beetle?! You can't have more fun than those cocksuckers. I can just see Simon Black out picking the beetles off the potato vines because I am just so sure that that is the kind of guy he is. Yeah, Simon and fonestar... that's even better. How much work do you think would not get done? Good Lord.
Re; You didn't even menton apiary. Fail.
Like you I have spent my life in horticulure.
The honey bee is on the way out. Forget about any climate change BS, the bees are dying and that spells doom for crops which require pollination.
Although its anecdotal, The mango crop in S florida has been decimated by the loss of wild honey bees. Trees that used to yeild 40-60 bushels in the past now produce but a handful of fruit.
My small farm, (3.5 acres) produces all the fresh/canned produce My family of four needs. It is intense cultivation, but the whole family chips in and the kids get to market the surplus.
I truly feel that as long as I have airable land to work, I am wealthy.
At least you caught the reference. How many would have missed the point? I know what is killing the bees. It is called fipronil. It used to be that you had to have a license to buy it AND sell it through BASF under the name Termidor. Then 2008 happened and fipronil started turning up up in OTC big box retail stores. I could not beleive it when I saw it. The stuff is wicked nasty on social insects both good and bad. If you research how the chemical works it all starts to make sense. It has been my contention for years that fipronil has been the culprit behind colony collapse disorder. If we lose our bees we are fucked and as someone who who has been in horticulture you know what I am saying. Perhaps Simon should write about that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fipronil
that shit is nasty. had a job once where the Mistress Gardener wanted me to spray it, i read the label and adamantly refused. she fired me on the spot. good riddance. she's lucky i didn't spray it in her face.
Our "crops" are for personal consumption, so no huge swaths of them. But... I have next to no losses even though I have deer, rabbits and crows and such (neighbor has a small orchard, and one day I was over there and he had to point out a big fucking pile of bear scat!). I talk to the crows, so maybe that's why they leave me alone*. I suspect that my dog is a big reason the wildlife doesn't get the better of things. Rabbits are somewhat kept at bay with a low, electrified (solar energizer) wire along the garden stuff that's attractive to them. The deer will get to some of the strawberries.
* A friend of mine knew someone who got pissed off at some crows and killed one, nailed it up in his backyard as a "warning." The crows then went bezerk on him.
When placed in the context of being a life style change (doing it more as a way of life than as some WallStreet investment) I see the advice as being perfectly sound. I opted to spend my precious money on doing this rather than spending for an education: I am doing all the prep work so that folks with better skills have something to come along and work with.
by the time you're done with the prep work, you'll be the one with the better skills.
don't sell yourself short brother.
Hey Seer, have you ever tried growing Amish Paste tomatoes? They make good sauce and then more sauce and then even more sauce untill you get sick of canning them. Then they reseed themselves and come up the next year even in zone 3 climates. I got mine from Baker Creek Heirloom Seeds out of Missouri. They are worth trying if you like your tomato pastes.(sort of like a Roma) If you do try them I would not plant more than a few or you wll have more fun than you can stand.:-)
Not mentioned in Mr. Black's latest piece of "advice from 30,000 feet" is the fact that the price of US farmland is at an all-time high and because of declining grain prices (among other reasons) is expected to drop 30% or so over the next few years. This will wipe out tens of thousands of farmers who bought land on credit to cash in on the corn-to-ethanol boom, which is in the process of busting. Then there is the rapidly plummeting fertility of land that has been artificially fertilized for decades, not to mention the loss of topsoil - as much as an inch a year in parts of the midwest.
What Mr. Black is advocating seems to be 'buy at peak price and watch your dumb ass swirl down the drain". But then, his wisdom comes to ZH readers for free, so what a deal.
I got "undepleted" Ag land (needs a "bit" of clearing work, though I wish to keep trees for firewood and silvopasturing [which I'm going a bit of] is just a good idea).
No matter, the old adage of "land, they ain't making anymore of it" holds true. All the good stuff will always be out of the reach of most.
Because I'd like to keep my blood pressure low I'l skip commenting on ethanol....
It is nothing but hard work. Nonstop. Fruits and vegetables are a different animal than huge corn/soybean farms. Kid brother worked in the muck on a celery farm. His nickname was Grub. I will let the knowledgeable here determine where we got him that nickname. If you want romance about farming watch Little House on the Praire. All else is bullshit. You don't know farming until you have lived on and worked on one. Better yet raised on one. There is a reason kids want to move to the city. No sleeping until noon on a dairy farm for sure. Don't forget the bees.
You know the top is in when you hear that the sons of dairy farmers aspire to becoming either golf or tennis pros. Their Dad's investment in better and bigger machinery allows them to sleep in and become playboys.
Yes, the animals part... I wish to avoid any dairy, even though grass-farmed dairy can do one-a-day milkings.
The city is always alluring to/for kids: I can claim that I was never attracted to cities, though I had to spend more time than I'd have liked in them. And when harmones start running strong they are much more attractive... Eventually we come to our senses and realize that there is nothing life-sustaining in cities...
Many people would rather wallow in muck with the Dairy cows than listen to the sirens, helicopters, and neighbors yelling at each other that other environs bring US. I can't sleep in cities anymore because of the racket. There is something magical about that moment just before sunrise when the temperature drops just as the sun's warmth drives the damp air in front of it. Bringing in a field of Wheat, knowing thousands of people are going to enjoy pancakes and sourdough bread. The cattle at round-up. Spring rains, dirt roads, wholesome well adjusted children.
I've got to bring in the cattle before the sun goes down, or I'd tell you what I really think....
A good friend of mine once smiled and looked at me and said: "I haven't heard that sound since when I was a kid!" She was hearing leaves breaking from the trees and dropping.
When my critters aren't making a racket it gets seriously quiet. Sometimes that in itself can be disquieting!
I'm still in the dreaming stage for cattle, may never be able to have them, though I'm still holding out.
I think you left our " while enjoying a lil toke" in your storey line
I think you left our " while enjoying a lil toke" in your storey line
Propadanda?
Now that we are starting to realize the truth about climate change, we then begin to see shills trying to con folks into investments that will go belly-up.
We are seeing now that many of our agricultural lands are no longer in prime locations due to changes in rainfall/droughts. So you want us to be suckered into purchasing land destined to become useless? Let this be a warning to all you would be "farmers"...get a clear picture of ground water availability and updated rainfall predictions/weather pattern changes before you invest.
And if you don't fully understand the risks...hold back.
It's ALWAYS about understanding risks. Trouble is, even if you think you've got them figured something throws a monkey-wrench.
Unless you were born with a silver-spoon or were one of the very few "lotto" winners you're going to have to compromise. And I believe that the "ideal" really doesn't exist, so even the well-off aren't likely not having to deal with compromises.
Food, shelter and water. Clearly the water part IS important.
Climate/weather is one constant of change. Well, LIFE is! It's all about being able to adjust.
Speaking of Propaganda.
Please feel free to share your "truth" on climate change.
It would seem the only truth about that topic is human greed. It is a giant wealth transfer, with some skim off the top for those who can profit from fear.
Remember the big O said his coming would cause the seas to lower.
Carbon dioxide levels are higher than ever in the history of hominids. CO2 is a green house gas. Does that pass for "TRUTH" in your pea-brained belief system?
You are another climate denier, Ho. I'm guessing you are old enough to know you will be dead sooner than the consequences of global warming and you either have no kids or hate them.
Really Hedgeless, you're my hero. I love seeing people endrun the system. Too bad the pic of that flawless cauliflower didn't copy/pasta.
new hedgeless_horseman
Vote up!
27Vote down!
0Not true. SO much fallow land in Texas it is mind boggling. In China, they farm the medians of the highways. HEre, we mow them.
Our cauliflower looks good right now.
I am going to make some cream of cauliflower soup this weekend.
Some bankers will buy up all the farmland on the market with printed money then hold it indefinitely, waiting for a global hunger crisis to maximize profits.
Bankers don't like hanging on to land for the obvious reason we're seeing them not being able to unload all the properties that they currently have. No matter what they do they are at high risk of being in a severe down-market with such assets. They're hanging on to shit now because they don't want to have a run on valuations: when I say they're hanging on what they're doing is not being quick to set properties into foreclosure status.
If folks are starving then it's quite unlikely that they have any money in which to purchase anything. Sure, the bankers will look to extort from govts (which has been how this has been going down), but when there's nothing there as well? No, while there may be a banker who thinks as you suggest I cannot see how the majority of bankers could even begin to think that this is some viable strategy: if it is in fact viewed that way then that means that things are pretty much over and that means their way of life as well.
Thomas Malthus made many of the same points in 1798.
Malthus is correct, his timing is just wrong. Humanity will outgrow its ability to feed itself as does every other species.
We are not unique, science doesn't create an exception for us, mathematics is always the same result. We are subject to mathematics. At some point there will be a huge die off of humanity, just based on the sheer number of humans currently alive now.
any calamity will effect more people, because there are more people.
starvation or sterility based on a polluted environment and a finicky sun. A few decades of drought and many of us will be naught.
How about some more of those plastics that mimic human hormones to fuck up the endocrine system?
What if the lowered ages of puberty are being caused by stress from overpopulation? the need to breed early to overcome competition for fertile partners. the planet is changing, as it always has, and we are only along for the ride as long as its hospitable.
Simon, how many tomatoes have you grown? And, where?
If you were well seasoned you'd know that this is WAY too much of a blanket statement, one that isn't likely going to be spouted by real farmers. Many animals graze lands that would NOT support a bunch of vegetable crops. And then there are locations in which it just isn't possible to have an animal.
I did the after work/weekend garden 20 years ago when I was a young man. I was also single and had lots of extra time on my hands. Better quality food at the same price as the local Farmers market but hard work. Buy all our veggies now and harvest whitetail deer. One deer per person per year. No USDA beef unless we want a steak. Unlimited feral hog, takes a little getting use to the taste though, their not corn feed. TX
"To me, this spells out an obvious case for investing in agriculture… and even more specifically, to own farmland."
This suprises someone? The very first thing that civilization was defined by was early agriculture which produced enough food and fabric to allow the tribe to do something else besides hunting and gathering. It allowed people to think about something else besides their grumbling stomach.
People, if you own the land you can literally go back 2,500 years and live off of it with no outside help. People still do that in all 50 states!
Provided you can also defend it....
And contain property taxes.
Use free fertilizer, the best there is. Offer to clean out some chicken coops. You only have to do it every five or six years!
"The land is the only thing in the world worth working for, worth fighting for, worth dying for, because it's the only thing that lasts "
What surprises me is how few people who live in cities understand the value of land. They all see it as just another kine of property and to them it's perfectly ok for a person to have a landless existence. Land is not just another property, by giving a person the right to provide for himself with food and shelter without the need of help from anyone else land is a sacred asset that safeguards a person's right to live as freeman. Without it a person's life wll however be held hostage by the market, not knowing whether you can feed youself next month because you are not sure whether your services will be needed by then, this sort of dependence makes people feel week, ill and angry all the time.
That's the way I see it, maybe it's all just BS but what's definitely true is the people I know who work in the country as farmers or so always seem to be happier than the paper pushers in the city even if they earn less.
Yields for some crops are skyrocketing. Lettuce, some vegetables, fruits etc. are being produced in greehouses hydroponically with tremendous yields. Insect damage is nil, water consumption is nil, energy consumption is less, weather damage is reduced, and labor is greatly reduced. The finest example of this agriculture is in Southern Spain. Square miles of greenhouses have turned this arid area into the winter vegetable supplier for Europe.
See: http://www.dzineblog360.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Greenhouses-in-Sa...
http://sierraclub.typepad.com/greenlife/2008/10/new-greenhouse.html
http://geographyfieldwork.com/AgribusinessCluster.htm
do a brix reading on any hydroponically grown veggies and you might think twice about spending any money on them. there's a way to do it that actually intensifies the nutrition, but i would bet that no one who is hydro growing commercially is doing that, unless they're growing cannabis that is.
IF were to be a farmer I'd be a farmer in Costa Rica, year round growing, decent water, good soil cheap labor low taxes
farmland too expensive stupid as we sit here tonight equities for now
Simon Black discovered what agronomists, environmentalist and animal right activist have been saying for decades. The size of the human population has always depended on the amount of food the world can produce. Famines have decimated human populations in the past. Modern agriculture increased and secured food so population could rise. But we exhausted and polluted our soils with agrichemicals and soil fertility is decreasing everywhere. So they come up with a 'solution' to that: GMO. But GMO and related agrichemicals (such as Roundup) causes inflammation of gut lining, organ damage, food allergies, etc. At least in lab rats. On humans GMO have never been tested. Or wait, they are actually being tested on us right now.....
Depends on the work you have to do. If this is free land - clear of any "indigenous people". What and where is this farmland that is being recommended? Local? Foreign?
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/12/17/green_rush_industrial_f...
re: "Yields for many staple crops (like wheat) essentially hit a wall about ten years ago. After decades of miraculous gains in the amount of tons, bushels, and kilograms per acre we have been able to extract from the Earth, productive capacity has largely plateaued."
We're about to see the real payload delivered from years of dumping all those wonderful, yield-increasing, chemical fertilizers on a big chunk of our arable farmlands.
Good luck.
One more reason to grow hemp. It doesn't need fertilizers or pesticides. It improves the soil it is grown in and the seed and oil are food that contains protein and omega-3 oils.
It also produces fiber that can be used for clothing, paper, or building products, such as fiberboard, or reinforced concrete.
It is grown in close proximity and will choke out weeds. It has been considered to be most likely one of the first, if not the first plant domesticated.
No you can't smoke it, but you can eat it. Unlike federal reserve notes.
interesting thread
thanks everyone