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Stocks "Euphoric" For 6th Straight Week

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While Citi's earnings-yield gap model indicates stocks are over-valued currently, their proprietary panic/euphoria model has now been in "euphoria" mode for six straight weeks. Having risen further into extremes, Tobias Levkovich notes that readings at this level indicate the market may retreat with an 83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months.

 

The Earnings-yield gap sees stocks modestly over-valued...

 

But investors are "euphoric" - will its be 1987 and 2008's collapse or 1999's meltup before collapse?

 

Charts: Citi

 


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Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"readings at this level indicate the market may retreat with an 83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months."

Wow!  That's a tough call! </sarc>

Wake me up when we're talking 83% DECLINE!

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

This time is different.

 

The only decline we will see is that of the shorts capital as they get blown the f**k out of the water by next years ramp to 2500 in the S&P.

 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:43 | Link to Comment InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

If you like your euphoria , you can keep your euphoria. Period.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

If you like your “fundamentals don’t matter,” you can keep your “fundamentals don’t matter.” Period.

If you like your Momo Ignition algos, you can keep your Momo Ignition algos. Period.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

"Cheer up boys and sing good luck.....
We laid our blood money for the Empire out on Wall Street....
We are marching to Euphoria, Euphoria Hoorah!"

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I'm thinking that the only "decline" to be found is in "participants."  Given enough of a continuance here I'd figure that at some point all of this shit will be nothing but algos talking to algos as REAL humans have completely walked away (like the Aztecs).

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall"....or in Wall Street speak..."The higher they are, the further they decline"

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:34 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

And a POMO 17% chance of gains.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

No more POMOs this year, 5 trading days left and no more POMOs.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

When you have to wait fifteen minutes for the three auctions to kick off and move the market, it wouldn't seem to matter much anyway.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

oh, another omenburg hinden

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Damn straight. 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Omenburg Hidden?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Twatter now over 30x sales. Stupid is, as stupid does

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yes.  And think about how This can be topped!

Unicorn swaps?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Pffft...who cares? The Bernank has my back....oh wait...

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If you do not know that this a fake rally engendered by Fed  buying of futures and options, then you believe in Santa and the Tooth Fairy and that the infinite NSA spying is to keep you safe - and Obama is always looking out for your welfare.

Corruption has become the norm in America.  Be surprised when markets go down or gold and silver go up.

In a fascist state, truth and free, fair markets are the first casaulties.

If you are not rich from buying Goldman, Facebook or Twitter, you are not corrupt enough for the land of the free.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Nicely summed up!

I'd suggest, however, that what is being corrupted is the notion of "growth."  We really need to come back to earth and realize that sooner or later we're going to have to deal with the issue of (the lack of) real growth.

Snot-nosed kids running around not wanting to look in the mirror lest they'd see themselves as snot-nosed kids (needing cleaned up).  And as it goes with kids running around, it can ONLY end in tears...

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:42 | Link to Comment kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Almost 6 straight years.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"will its be 1987 and 2008's collapse or 1999's meltup before collapse?"

I'm rooting for 1999-style.  Phony as a 3 dollar bill, but at least entertaining.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

The Fed has proven time and time again that even a 5% correction is not allowed.  This is not a market, it is centrally planned and they want asset prices higher.  Until they lose control, nothing else matters. 

Things will have to get insanely priced, then we will need a catalyst to pop the bubble which could be any number of things domestically or globally that leads to another financial panic.  Only a fool would try and time it.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:45 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Its 1999 but on 'roids. Double 'roids. S&P to 2500+ in a few months, 5000+ longterm. Gold sub-$1000 as it descends into the biggest bear market its ever seen (after coming out of the biggest bull market its ever seen) and settles sub-$100.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Serious question. How have the fundamentals for gold changed in the last two and a half years? Why should it continue down?

Has QE ended? Has ZIRP ended? Is there any real growth? Are there more full time jobs? Is inflation under control? What about unfunded liabilities? The debt ceiling?

Can you back your argument with any real world facts or will you continue to just make shit up?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:09 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The only fundamental for gold is the belief that it is a store of value. Once that belief is destroyed it becomes the useless metal that it intrinsically is. I think that belief has been destroyed. My sub-$100 thesis is based on its actual uses in industry and dentistry as well as the huge above gound supply.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I can see we have another smug zit-face here who thinks he knows so much more than his elders (and his betters), even while being fundamentally ignorant of and clueless of history and historical precedent.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:18 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Probably a damn sight older than you sunshine. I have lived through many bulls and bears and bought into gold and the goldies in 2001. Its finished.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:04 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I don't know what a "FieldingMellish" is, but I know what a "seer" is, and, well, being one (seer) I have to disagree with your position.  The reason is that this is not about some simple cyclical fluctuation, one that can actually be measured using today's metrics.  Predicting PRICING is a fools game from now on (I thought this memo has been in wide circulation?).  It'll come down on how folks will, in the future, execute more localized trade.  While I applaud the sentiment of the folks supporting Bitcoin I cannot see it working on a less techology-oriented society: here on out we are going to be applying more stored "wealth" toward energy and food, which removes that "wealth" from the technology sector (networks will also be subject to less and less capital).

All said, change happens.  Nothing will establish any condition of permanance: given a short enough time slice just about anything can be said a "success."

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 19:55 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

If gold is finished then why are the central banks accumulationg it in record amounts. Central banks, the supposed money masters. You see the problem with gold bashers is that they are . . . . . um . . . . . fucking moronic. Why waste time telling a bunch a 2 bit punters on ZH that gold is doomed. Get on the blower to central bankers, quick, before they pour too much MORE money into the useless metal.

When CB's all over the world are dumping gold then yes, I'd have to agree, the outlook for the PM as a trade would be dire. How you can correlate your view, though, with what is happening behind the scenes is beyond me. I suspect I have so categorically destroyed your argument against gold that you won't even reply to this, simply because, what the fuck can you possibly say. What possible argument can you profer. "Fielding Mellish" vs "worlds central banks", mmmm, whose right.

Bottom line is you're just thinking too hard about gold. If you need to argue whether gold is a store of value or not you're just not that smart. By definition, regardless of what humans think, gold is a store of value, with empahsis on the word VALUE. In can't be counterfeitied and retains it's orginal properties forever - presto - value retained, value stored. If you can't see that, you're not that bright. Think of the largely static mass of gold (growing at say 2% per year) in the world, think of the amount of currency in the world, think of at various times throughout history how much fiat is needed in exchange for an ounce and you will immediately see that it isn't the price of gold that changes, it is the price of currency.

Your arguments are completely misguided and you are talking about gold as a punt, a get rich quich scheme, a trade. No doubt you've been burnt and this is the basis of your view on gold.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@akak

Right, like old people can't ever be wrong while they're smugly putting down the younger generation. Flip the coin, you'll see the other side.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:23 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

BOP it has nothing to do with fundamentals. The fed has simply hijacked the paper price of gold and now are in full control of it's path. I had dinner last night with in laws. A few of them are in tech, bigtime. They were laughing at bitcoin because they felt governments ability to swat it away like a fly was so apparent. So I brought it around to currencies and they just shrugged and said that it's all about the dollar. Because people have faith in it. These people don't know or care about currency devaluations of QE. They just accept things for how they are. When I brought up gold they just said they understood that it had some minute form of value, but nothing that could ever warrant it being used in the financial system. These are incredibly smart people. Not dummies. But the way you or I view gold confounds them and for the most part they just dismiss it, and obviously it's history.

So with the tech crowd uninterested, you are left with retail and foreigners. Retail has left the building with a firm kick in their ass from the fed. So now you are left with foreigners. Will china at some point update their world gold holdings and dump UST's and announce their intention to become the new reserve currency? I don't know. But until that day comes, gold is going nowhere. There will be no "renewed interest" in gold from your typical investor. They never bought it for the same reasons you did. One last thing. The drop in gold preceeded the big crash in 2008. That crash everyone is looking for may be a long long ways away.

You know I am not a troll, I am just trying to put some rationale behind this obvious change in the direction of gold, and full disclosure, I own gold, and am not selling. Either ever, or until the day those Fafoa and Gato dudes are right and I can buy most of the southeast united states with it.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

fonz, always good to read level-headed thinking...

Although the tech-folks might be holding thing together for the moment I'm thinking that it can switch in a heartbeat.  It ALL works on "growth."  We've gone from fabrication of goods (autos - Detroit) to fabrication of robots (to make goods- Japan, South Korea, now China) to fabrication of financial shit (insufficient space to make any fair listing) to fabrication of reality itself (FB with shit like "Farmville," and Twitter).  ALL of this carried by tech.  I do not believe that the road can be stretched beyond fabricating reality; that is, w/o alienating most of the human population (we're already something like 4+ billion living on $3/day or less), more "importantly," to the System that is, alienating more and more folks who served the tech machine (the once entitled now shunned).

Next time you get those folks around the table ask them how long they think that their jobs might continue.  I liquidated quite a bit when I saw all this coming, able to make "gains."  I'm not thinking that you'll find that folks looking to do this now and in the future will be able to say the same, in which case they cannot assume that they can "manage" the down-leg (as they're likely using the wrong metrics).

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:38 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you seer. It was an interesting scenario Seer .There were two versions of people at this party. My wife's immediate family. Her close family member owns a tech company with thousands of employes all over, but concentrated in Belarus and Kiev. This is your serious tech dude. He is loaded. But he has a very similar outlook on things as many on here, including yourself. He seems like he is constantly just waiting for the shit to hit the fan. With that said I talked about robots etc. with him and he did not fully agree. He said he has plenty of jobs available but no one in the U.S has any skills. The education system sucks here. Long story short he is not optomistic about the outlook of the U.S economy and knows full well we are heading towards fascism.

Then you have my wife's extended famiy. This particular guy was early on the development of all these apps on the smart phones. He teaches at a large state university. That is his primary job. He is a nice guy but he is as liberal as they come. He thinks things are awesome and only getting better by the minute. So his job will only continue until the next great awesome life challenge comes along.

The funny part is the guy who teaches is trying to link up with the the other guy to set up a program where the students can hopefully end up at the tech firm. The teacher asks the other guy "are you more interested in credentials or skills". I mean he actually asked this guy if he was happy to get kids with useless letters behind their names (because I am sure he would love to just stamp a paper and be done) or does he actually have to be held accountable to these kids learning something. The tech company guy looked at me like "see what I mean".

 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

fonz, ask them, both sides, where the consumers are or will be for continued support (and, really, anyone thinking there's expansion just ought not be allowed to talk).  I suspect the reality is that they're looking to supply and consume between themselves, which, as we know, won't continue without an expansion of the consumer base (which ain't coming).

Was the "teacher" asking the question in such a way as it might suggest that it would cost a bit more (from the tech guy) to get non-stamped people?  I think that this might actually underpin the crux of the problem.  Tech, and the "industrial" world in general, demands a LOT more because there's a LOT more to program one's mind with (and PROGRAM, no matter whether it's stamping on paper or in the head, IS what it's about).  I believe that there's no way that we can pay for robot programmers with low-earning consumers: yes, no matter what the tech guy says, ROBOTICS has ballooned- I suspect that he would avoid this conversation for the very reason that tech and robotic ultimately drives down wages and reduces the ability for folks to purchase HIS products.  (look at all the iStuff- it's build primarily with robots; I worked for an internationally recognized electronics firm which at one point, as those familiar with the early days of electronics, built its own custom resistors- I long ago left, but I'm sure that most of what is used is being churned out by robots on the other side of the world).

The "brightest" are already harnessed by the big corporations.  And those that have time in have actual experience, something that good employers well understand.  NOTE: Joel Salatin says that the "brightest" need to be applied to farming (in the smaller scale that is); I agree with him- everything else looks simple compared to farming; so here too exists a lack of properly "educated/experienced" people (and wages tend to be FAR less attractive); those people at the "table" might also contemplate what This means...

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Sad to hear your family doesn't get it on gold, but I'm not too surprised. However, to think it is somehow "not being used in the financial system" is sheer lunacy. 

fonz, I know exactly why the direction of gold changed and it has nothing to do with most of your post. Cheers, and good luck.

 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 17:55 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

BOP they are not my family, and no, they don't understand it. Since you asked the question and have the answer, why don't you fill us in?

 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I thought you said in laws? Sorry.

All I can do is point to the East fonz, and there you will find the answers to the Golden Bull. If people want to ignore it, dimiss it, marginalize it, so be it. They miss the clear trend going on right now and their own possible pitfalls and dangers (in holding nothing but paper assets). I find this view  quite narrow, shortsighted and unenlightened. That's just me though, no offense meant to you and your friends if you disagree.

Merry Christmas friend...cheers!

PS gold is now priced at 2008 levels (adjusted for quantity of fiat)

http://www.silverdoctors.com/adjusted-for-quantity-of-fiat-money-gold-tr...

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 19:12 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks BOP. My wife's crazy in laws are smart and all, but they are not my family. 

It's not so much your overall point that I disagree with. It's pretty clear they are buying gold out east. It's the timeline of this whole thing that concerns me. The price of gold 5 years from now does not matter to someone who is coughing up their stash today. I believe the price is going down because the fed and the large banks are making it so. I feel that is beyond apparent. To the point where Goldman, despite the ZH sarcasm, has nailed every price move this year. That is not coincidence. That is just a message. As to who wins out and when, I will always keep some chips on your call. Always.

All the best to you and yours.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 20:07 | Link to Comment BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Normalcy bias is a powerful force in human thinking. It cannot be any other way that these tech millionaires aren't interested in gold because they are part of the current system, they have thrived being part of the current system, the current syste is all they know. When you are making millions do you think you can a shit about history when you're flying the world in first class, putting your feet up at your seaside residence, trottong off to your ski lodge for some fresh powder etc. Fiat is the absolute heart of the current system and cannot be abused. When it is abused it is signalling the end of the system. Many of us are going to be out of work for a long in the very near future because our jobs, our careers are based on skimming money from the system, not adding value, just skimming. Eventually the parasites in the system are taking more than the host generates and I suspect we are well past that point now.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment ydderf1950
ydderf1950's picture

gold may be seeing deflation. just a guess

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:48 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

Market has no sellers.....none........

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:52 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

if anyone sells in size they will become a pariah, a target of investigations, they will be W&Red, S&Ped, or Egan Jonesed.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

And without big shifts there cannot be big returns.  Lots of stuff out there, yet, written up on contract requiring big returns.

Only more and more corruption to come as folks dig closer and closer to the edges of what is "legal" (like GS now figuring out how to wiggle out past Frank-Dodd).

Pensioners on one side, babies on the other...  kind of hard to steal/shift from either, yet, that's what it's down to now.  This is the real "death panel."

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Moe Hamhead
Moe Hamhead's picture

Earnings?  Who needs corporate earnings?

It's stockholder earnings we're after!

-cough, -cough, - choke !

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:47 | Link to Comment FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Methinks the punch bowl is nearly drained. Without real employment and income improvement it is hard to see any further rational gains for the market as a whole.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

It's really about low interest pumping up the price on stocks as the companies buy back their own stock in an effort to disconnect from the ticking time-bomb that is now Wall Street.  And, sadly, because I actually see nothing wrong with folks who really care about their companies (be they big or small) wanting to see them continue (employment and or ideological reasons [folks just believe in what they are doing]), they're only treading water as the life-blood that is the "consumer" dries up: they'll be more able to slowly turn the lights off, whereas Wall Street would likely hit the kill switch at just about any time.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I can't wait until the whole thing crashes, it's going to be EPIC!

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

don't hold your breath.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Oh I won't be holding my breath, but it's mathmatically certain.  I'm not telling anything new to most on here.

There's going to be a whole lot of people who suffer at the hands of these criminals.  As many currently are.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:03 | Link to Comment webspin
webspin's picture

The only mathematical certainty is you are clueless as to speculating. Nothing in the “markets” is a certainty, thinking otherwise is your first mistake. Thinking your poor market reading skills are because of some invisible force/criminals/magic is the next one. You need to start doubting your smarts, the markets always right.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

It's a fucking FINITE planet.  Of fucking course this shit will all end.

Only those living in some sort of sheltered world could have missed the progression from organic growth to virtual growth as we desperately have tried to give oursleves the impression that growth, which drives all the retirement pensions and expansion of infrastruture and industry, is continuing.  If you don't buy this then ask yourself why there's a need for fiat: fiat is ALL about trying to make up for there being shortages of resources (the content of valuable metals in coins were reduced; too much of a direct linkage between shortages -metals- and currencies so we managed to go to "paper," as one need not "cut" paper, only manipulate it electronically now).

Math skills, skippy, trump reading skills.

Thanks for playing!

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

And you may want to renew your membership to DENSA!  It's like MENSA except for dumbasses like you.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

You are on the verge of the crack up boom.  The euphoria will continue until the retail investor does relent and put their retirement funds back into stocks.  Then, and only then, will the floor fall out.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Are there really any retail investors even left?

I'd figured this was all just a bunch of institutional sloshings as holders consolidated, consolidated to the point that any further sloshing (to make the appearance of growth) would end up in a final capsize.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:46 | Link to Comment webspin
webspin's picture

 

Stocks Euphoric For 6th Straight Week

is what a man crys when he has read the tea leaves wrong.

 

"No suprise" is what a man says who just paid attention to the facts

webspin 10,20,2013;

"relentless panic buying"??? All I see from the markets activity was a complete lack of concern for the shutdown that the left run media wanted us all to panic over. If you note the markets lack of fear to the shut down, you can only come to one conclusion, the market is going to rally for a lot longer and higher than anyone thinks.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"left-run media" yeah, whatever...

When you think you have it figured is when you might wish to step back and reflect.

Perhaps this is no more about writing turds for history rather than in wanting to "panic us?"  Really, think about it, does the "left-run media" cause panic in you? (that it "sucks" or whatever is not the point)  The reason to ask this is that doing so results in you/I/us here asking just WHO is really left for the media to play to in order to sucker?  Folks here ain't buying it.  All those poor and unemployed folks ain't buying it.  Just who the fuck is left?

No, this is nothing but turd writing for posterity.  Always, revolutions are won before the first shot.  This sucker died a long time ago.  The "media' are only writing the obit: and giving outs for the "criminals" among them.

I wonder how the market could tank over taper talk (last summer) and then when taper actually comes it shoots up.  It's nothing but a cluster fuck from a dying System- there are no reasons because nothing maps (and any compass we have doesn't work in the new land).

The market is becoming more and more disconnected from humans.  It very well live on a while longer, but I suspect it'll be most closely characterizable as old radio transmissions streaming far off in the universe than real-time functioning activity.  Increasing unemployment and dropping wages.  No, I wouldn't make the wager that "a lot longer" is a lock: tipping-points exist.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:27 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

can someone please explain to me the reason as to why facefuck is up 5 percent plus today?

 

i mean i assume its bc the day of the week ends in the letter Y, but is there a reason?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:59 | Link to Comment webspin
webspin's picture

We're in a bull market? Because 58 a share is only 16 points above it's IPO price of 42 a year and ahalf ago? Because in challenged 54 bucks a share 3 days in a row in October and challenged it again for the last 4 days and it eventually ran out of fools that had enough money to keep shorting it? A 5% "POP" is nothing on a breakout of a speculative stock. If you don't even know that much about trading, why the F are you buying puts (suckers bets)?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Think Herbalife.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:00 | Link to Comment webspin
webspin's picture

"Herbalife"?!? Facebook is hardly a pyramid-marketing scheme! I remember when Amazon was a much hated stock in 1999-2001. “Guaranteed to be bankrupt, no way the numbers work!!!” was the cry.

 

I don’t know if facebook becomes the next Polaroid (bankrupt) or Apple (darling) but I do know it’s poised for a strong rally from here and that’s all one needs to know.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"I don’t know if facebook becomes the next Polaroid (bankrupt) or Apple (darling) but I do know it’s poised for a strong rally from here and that’s all one needs to know."

You're not comparing "like" things (not to be confused the "Like" in FB).

Polaroid made shit.

Apple makes shit.

FB makes NOTHING.

FB is merely another virtual layer on a virtual hologram that's projecting "growth."  Growth can ONLY come from a basis in physical goods.  Sure, FB, Twitter and such consume electricity (which does come from a physical source), but nothing comes out the other end of the "factory."

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:58 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Like, God, you won't know until you die.  How curious are you?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

If I had to make a bet I'd bet that HUI will go negative sometime in Q4/14.
I've had enough... Not of stacking, that I will continue, but of trying to figure this shit out.

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

NP, you've just got better things to do!  And, well, lets all go about doing them (and not giving our energies to this dying system).

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Barter. Grow your own food...as much as you can. True subversive activities in Amerika. 

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

While it may be subversive to the System (and I agree that it is, just like Joel Salatin does in his "Everything I Want To Do Is Illegal" book), the AIM should be to do it because that is what is required (to [try to] keep from being under a collapsing system).

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 15:04 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Is this prediction baselined against $100B/mo. in direct market pumping?

Mon, 12/23/2013 - 21:27 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 hourly has moved over 60 points in four days

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-jumps-open-consolidates-up...

 

All whilst at the top of a five year bull run - Central Banks are buying up all they can to herd the masses in - so the masses become the bagholders.

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