2013 Financial Year In Review
Via Russ Certo of Brean Capital,
From the first headline to the last, the following brief month-by-month summary of the year shows just how far markets and global happenings have come...
January 2013: Risk seen in mortgage bonds, Swiss National Bank currency losses, fresh budget fights brewing, Egyptian Pound Extends Slide, more Asians going for gold in vault, SNB loses USD 16.5 billion, next comes the US downgrade, U.S. needs further deficit cuts to avoid downgrade-Moody's, Gross says government financing schemes such as QE to end badly, dealers take biggest year-end gamble since 2006, Brian Sach to resign as Senior Advisor-Fed, Yellen hopes Fed able to 'exit' easy monetary policy, bond market investors about to get crushed-Goldman, banks win 4 year delay as regulators loosen Basel Liquidity Rule; AAPL paid 1/40 of all U.S. federal corporate taxes in 2012, Muni tax cap threatens $150 billion bond calls-Citi, Blackstone rushes $2.5 billion purchase as homes rise, QE unwind signal may end in 'huge' rate rise-Former Fed official, Abe aids Fed as Japan seen buying $558 billion foreign debt, Ambrose: Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris, Bernanke seen buying $1.14 trillion in 2014.
February 2013: Margin debt only 13% from previous peak, Asian astrologers warn of stormy Year of Snake, Gold volatility squeeze means rise to $1,900, carried interest back in crosshairs, Bridgewater bets world stocks get lift as cash moves into market, EU tax would cover secondary-market government bond transactions, Fed party is over, invest overseas-Marc Faber, Moody's-States outlook negative 6th straight year, biggest buyers stamped from junk bonds on loss, FT-Fed exit fears increasing, gas prices risen for 32 days straight, Simpson and Bowles to offer up deficit fix, Spain to impose yield ceiling on bond sales by regions, BOE plans to sign Yuan currency swap deal with China, Fed dealer borrowing hits 1 year high.
March 2013: Swaps now clearing on exchanges, Cover the 2% 10 year shorts, expect U.S. home prices to increase 8%-BofA, Fed may be miscounting money supply.
April 2013: Ellington joins race to buy rental homes, Abe warns over Japan inflation target, shadow inventory, Asia souring wages hit factories stoking inflation, Eurodollars-FRA/OIS may need to add premium amid libor changes, number is uglier under the surface-labor participation rate, banks would need 15% capital in Brown-Vitter proposal, Fed braces for 4th summer slump, hedge funds cut bets most since 2008, VIX bets climb to three year high, housing prices are on a tear, bond funds might shift strategies, Der Spiegel-the Bitcoin boom and its many risks, drop in UST demand may indicate more risk taking, State Street's Junk ETF reports second-biggest daily withdrawal, Hilsenrath, BOJ bazooka, Obama mulls sail of TVA in budget plan, TVA bonds drop after Obama proposal, using of 401ks as an ATM soars by 28%, large explosion reported, Catalonia mulls taxing banks, Wall Street jobs at record low as profits rise, Germany auctions 30-year bonds at record-low yield of 2.16%, Treasury cuts bill auctions by $9 billion, Rwanda debut $400 million Eurobond, market's $20 trillion yielding below 20%.
May 2013: Apollo's Black 'selling everything', Posen predicts Geithner would be successor to Bernanke, MBI may be seized by regulators, dividend stocks being new bonds, copper leads metals higher, SEC zeroing in on 'prime' funds as viewed as most vulnerable, WSJ interview with Mel Watt, T-bill rates turn negative, 'modifying to prosperity' may hurt housing recovery-TD, Blackrock creates new alternative to money funds, Moody's downgrades Bermuda, record cash sent to balance funds, U.S. 2 year $35 billion auction attracts fewest bids.
June 2013: Treasury futures volume record, Fannie/Freddie plunge bond wipeout speeds shift to short-term shelter, Hindenburg Omen, PMI rumor, Finra-Brokers who fail to warn clients of risks of bond investing, tender for EUR 2.9 Greece government bonds, carry traders fall victim to Bernanke tapering wager; plan to abolish FNMA/FHLMC, "off the run ites", Fed tapering of QE is 'appropriate next step' for policy, home loan rates approaching 4%, MBS-immediate backstop bid may be hard to find, mortgage derivatives volume jumps to highest in almost year, Brazils outlook revised to negative, Vanguard tips fund outflows, Nikkei, SPDR gold holdings fall below 1,000 tons, futures traders raise bests on 2014 rate boost, five banks must raise $21 billion in fresh capital, Bonds tumble with stocks as gold falls in global rout, PBOC said to add cash after China money rates jump, BOJ taps Fed FX sap line, U.S. said to consider doubling leverage standard for big banks, ETF losses were far beyond what the most sophisticated risk models could have, U.S. govt. Treasury funds see 5th week of redemptions, Hilsy-market may be misreading the Fed's messages, Freddie to sell first structured agency credit risk transaction, 5yr auction direct award lowest since Nov. 2009, China suspends PMI details.
July 2013: 30 year swaps turn positive for the first time since 2008, part-time jobs surge to all time high, FT-Carney to extend QE, margin calls rise to 3 month high, Larry Summers circles as Fed opening looms, U.S. Treasury sued over Fannie/Freddie dividend, Egypt sells $1 billion bonds to Qatar as reserves decline, FT-banks warn against spread of clearing houses, Japanese sold record amount of foreign bonds in June, Treasury futures surge as Bernanke sees 'accommodative' policy, Rupee FX controls, banks dodge bullet with deal on swaps, European auto sales fall to two-decade low, German ZEW unexpectedly drops, CME to address bond contract duration shift, China Treasury holding hit record, Goldman rejects case for dollar gains seeing 6% drop, Bernanke seeks to divorce QE tapering from interest rate outlook, Ally said to weigh raising up to $1 billion; Finra increases MBS transparency, SEC warns prepare for repo defaults, Will the ECB embark on negative rates, Boehner-White House spoiling for a Government shutdown, Fed Chair ping pong.
August 2013: MBS applications plunging at fastest rate in 4 years, record equity inflows, Jackson Hole agenda leak, investors euphoric as US margin debt reaches 'danger' levels, Janus funds posts highest withdrawals in three years, Russ vacation :)
September 2013: Fed may use reverse repos for macro goals, Treasury shortage squeezes, worst losses since 1999 defy history's rally signal-Munis, bank exits sovereign debt markets due to low returns, MMFS expected to embrace Fed reverse repos, bond outflows $9 billion on week, 10 year bunds hit 2%, Obama seen delaying Fed nomination until Syria issue resolved, repo market may shrink $500 billion amid new capital ratios, Spain considers coming with 50 year bond, blutarsky bills, Hussmann on rates, White House-prepare for shutdown, Fed funds futures price first 25 bp rate hike at May 2015, everything you need to know about how a government shutdown works, ESM may issue debt in dollars, other currencies, Lombard, the case for cash, JPM settlement reaches $20 billion, U.S. may file charges against ICAP employees, countdown to shutdown, Wal-Mart cutting orders as unsold merchandise piles up, ECB says private sector loans fell most on record in August, Labor say California caught up with backlog of new claims, T-bill surrounding debt ceiling.
October 2013: Taper, Sequester, Selfie, biggest foreign creditors show concern for default, long volatility, biggest pension fund at risk holding 60% in JGBs, 1 month bills 30 bps cheaper on the day, GC rate jumps, consumer confidence plummets first week of govt. shutdown, Fidelity sells off short-term US government debt, Hong Kong lifts margin discount on Treasuries, Canadian T-bills, liquidity, FT-US debt crises sees $10 billion cash flood into BNY Mellon, Caroline Baum-This is no way to run a country, S&P-shutdown has taken $24 billion out of economy, Blackstone funding largest U.S. single family rentals, London house prices surge, central bank drops tapering talk, platinum shortages extend as car sales quicken, Hollande says 75% tax will apply to everyone, FT-BOE admits limits on forward guidance, 5yr butterfly spread at four month low.
November 2013: RBS to isolate $61 billion in toxic loans, Revise terms of overnight fixed rate reverse repo, liquidity draught, home prices climb 88% of U.S. cities, squeezed middle class looks to Dollar stores, confessions of a quantitative easer, default wave of $1.6 trillion looming for JUNK-Fridson, Venezuela bonds plunge, PBOC to end Yuan intervention, Census 'faked' 2012 election jobs report, Janet BernYellenKE, Americans recovering equity in homes at record pace, ECB ready to fight deflation, Senate filibuster rule change, Oil breaks on Iran deal, Labor- holiday weeks 'challenging' to seasonally adjust, FHLB system accounts for 75% of lending.
December 2013: Russ gets metacarpal syndrome from typing, the Fed now owns one third of the entire US bond market, Canadian dollar touches lowest in two years, record crowds but spending declines, investor survey largest net shorts, largest open interest, Congress trying to avoid another shutdown, deluge of Muni debt on tap, wealthy go frugal this holiday, 10 year notes -2.25% in repo, G-fee increase, Manhattan apartment rents drop as vacancies rise to 2006 levels, Fischer buzz, only 11% of managers see taper this week, TAPER, lumber up-limit, Yen weakening, 5yrs cheap on the curve, 5yrs CHEAPER on the curve, 5 point futures print overnight, year-end tidings.
It has been a long year but society at large (always) has a lot to be thankful for.
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