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2013: S&P 500 +28%, US Treasury Curve Unchanged
While both stock and bond markets are "influenced" by the ongoing flood of central bank liquidity, it is clear that the two "markets" have a very different view of the future. The last few days have seen the longer-term bond term structure (perhaps indicative of future growth hopes) collapse and are now unchanged on the year. Of course, the "taper" has been seen as nothing but great news by stocks which have pushed on to a 28% gain on the year... Which "efficient" market is discounting the future correctly we wonder?
Chart: Bloomberg
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keep an eye out on that 10 year...it's up to 2.98% today and rising...
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/charts
"US Treasury Curve Unchanged"
You misspelled "unhinged" -- darn that autocowrecked!
I am.....and I'm buying it.
The Fed just cannot let the 10yr rise too much more. And since it's successfully suppressed rates for many years now....and pumped up equity prices at the same time....it's hard to believe that---if forced to choose---the Fed would 'sacrifice' the Treasury market to save the equity markets.
Call me crazy, but things would get a lot 'worse' if rates blew out, as compared to an equity sell-off.
by their respective natures they are both headed to oblivion.
the public demands a BONUS CHART?!?! at the close with TWTR
Any kind of chart as long as it's a Hockey Stick.
IF it breaks 2.98 it may breakout if not it's exactly at double top. Will be interesting to see what happens over 3%... Now they watch they will move magic number when all hell breaks loose to 3.25
yeah, and let's just see how long Larry Yellen can "taper" as these rates continue to rise. She'll be CTRL-Peeing all over herself in no time after the first of the year. Soon it will become 100 Billion/month and up and up and up...anything to keep the rates down and equities pumping, right?
And remember...there is no debt ceiling anymore. To the moon!!!
stack phyzz Ag/Au and sleep well at night. Long lead projectiles and lead projectile delivery systems ;-)
Merry Christmas to all ZH'ers!!!
"Will be interesting to see what happens over 3%."
DB(Death Bed) will be the first to explode from their interest rate swaps
Just...let....me....get....to...year....end.
<Book'em (those profits) Dano.>
Looking for a broken elevator cable at the first of the year. Only a limited number of hotshots can get out at the top. Who's going to take the money and run in the new tax year?
It should be interesting to see if the usd continues to strengthen with higher yields, or if it sells off when the equity markets start to choke on higher funding costs. Based on the recent rate gains in bonds and the slight weaking bias of the usd my guess is a weaker dollar, unless all hell breaks loose.
The usd/jpy carry is having trouble with any additional gains, which also doesn't bode well when you consider the rate spike and the recent blast up in equities.
should be interesting to see what happens when instead of going up everything goes down.
Don't worry, it's is a "good" deflation.
I just spotted 2.99 for a minute there and then back to 2.98...now back to 2.99 as I type this...
Hold, Hold, Hold, HOLD................
S&P 500 dividend yield = 1.88%
Ten year 3%
Hmmmmmm.........
dividends taxed as capital gains interest as ordinary income. come on wisehiney...buy stocks NOW!
Treasuries?!
I don't get it. At all.
Someone smarter than I will have to explain to me why anyone would want to even consider buying the debt of the most flat broke government in history.
At some point, somebody is not going to get paid.