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Risk And Reality In The US Economy

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The US economy is stabilizing, but it's not truly recovering. That's the view of Saxo Bank's Chief Investment Officer, Steen Jakobsen. Following the Fed's tapering news, Steen says the risk is that we trade on perception and not reality. Clearly, the outgoing Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, wanted to send a signal to the markets.

Global equity markets, notably in the States, have been hitting record highs for weeks; but Steen warns "we're coming to the end of that cycle." Actual growth in America is well below the average rate of the past 60 years and job creation too is lagging. People may be starting to feel more confident but that's still not translating into significantly higher employment or wages.  

"We're at the end of asset inflation," he says, and that "will dawn on the market very soon."

 

 


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Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Hate fucking autoplay!

Steen Jakobsen....says it all!  Fuck'em!!

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Hate fucking autoplay!

I do too. 

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 23:09 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Particularly when it is one's spouse...

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:01 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I think we've reached a "permanently low plateau" for anyone not in the top 1%.  And I'm pretty sure that statement won't bite me in the ass a year or two from now, regardless of what happens in asset markets.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:17 | Link to Comment CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Modern finance semantics made easy:

 

  • Cigar -> Cigarette
  • Vinegar -> Vinaigrette
  • Corvair -> Corvette
  • Ass -> Asset

Any questions?

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

The amazing notion of the following concept is noticeably absent from any main stream reporting. 

People who need to support families with part time jobs often need several of them. Ergo the mirage of recovery is just that.

 

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:53 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

The US economy is stabilizing, but it's not truly recovering.

This is what is known as the embalmed cadaver effect.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 20:15 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

The embalming fluid is injected and not leaking.

Its all can be hoped for the time being.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everyone seems to be wanting to get on record as suggesting things could go badly while still not telling anyone to run away. They all need credibility while none of them has any as they make their living buying low and selling high.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:49 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

Good post.  I had a similar feeling of hopelessness while listening to a tired old group of shit-pedlars on mainstream Canadian radio over the weekend.  Interestingly, the last time I attended one of their public events, the big conference room was almost empty.  Are we near the end of the age when working-class mouth-breathers still have two dimes to rub together, ready to hand them over to financial industry scumbags?  Could that be a good thing?

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:15 | Link to Comment AngelEyes00
AngelEyes00's picture

Why don't they do a QE for the regular guy?  Print me 10 million dollars, charge me .25%, I'll roll it into 10 year treasuries at say 2.9%, pocket the difference and once I have some seed money from profit, I'll lend to people buying houses at 5-8% and make even more money.  That will get the economy rolling.  If we are in permanent QE, might as well funnel from the bottom up and test the results.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:31 | Link to Comment qussl3
qussl3's picture

Do it bottom up and you get massive inflation, leading to instability and possibly a challenge on the status quo.

Top down, you enable a rather stealthy wealth transfer from the producers to the takers (the real ones not the politispeak construct).

If you were sitting up top which would you choose?

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Do it bottom up, you get recovery.  Do it top down, you get asset transfer to the top.  It's clear from the choice what the intent is.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 20:43 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Mainstreet gets the bottom-up ACA taxes starting in 2010, first...and then in probably 2014 the bailins will be turned into bottom-up taxes for the plans.

As this propagates it gets deeper into the tax code.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/01/obamacare-and-new-taxes-destroying-jobs-and-the-economy

They got the healthcare taxes 'in' before the upcoming bailin taxes for Wall Street.

Hardly waiting.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment AngelEyes00
AngelEyes00's picture

qussl3, "Do it bottom up and you get massive inflation..."

Why would there be more inflation for the same QE dollars from bottom up than top down?

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 03:13 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Money multiplier. At the top they're sticking it into bank reserves, on deposit at the FED for free interest income, and cramming some of it into the stawk market, etc. but it's not multiplying in the real economy nearly as much as it would if the counterfeit were sent directly to the people. Really bad inflation would result. I think really bad inflation is still coming eventually (mixed in with bouts of deflation), but they'll be able to game it much longer.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

I believe in Santa and Peace on Earth and goodwill towards all.

Merry Christmas Angeleyes....

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 00:05 | Link to Comment AngelEyes00
AngelEyes00's picture

Right back at you Ying-Yang, groundskeeper and all the other fun loving posters on ZH.

Happy New Year to one an all!   

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

How about we just don't do QE at all?

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 02:11 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Special favors for special people. You are not special.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:28 | Link to Comment kurt
kurt's picture

Give money to the people who will spend it.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:58 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

So glad the economy has stabilized. I was worried I wouldn't have to fight the Mexicans while spending my bitcoin profits at Target this Christmas. Getting into that place...it was like a parade at the border. There were kids on both sides of the mothers that were pushing strollers. I had to wait for 30 or 40 of em to pass on foot just while trying to park my car. Nothing like a stabilized economy to keep the illegals here. Trouble is they are still going back to Mexico in ever increasing numbers because the F'n media is lying. They are crooks and banksters and that's what banksters do. They lie so they can steal from us and then kill us. They've captured congress and have built up the DHS gestapo to exterminate us. May you all have received guns and ammo for the Holidays. Merry F'n Christmas. My car broke down on the 101 FWY in the middle F'n lane today. I'm grateful that I had AAA and am preparing for a holy jolly Christmas.

Have fun.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 03:01 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Merry Christmas.  Hope the car repairs are minor (vapor lock from cheap ethanol petrol?).

The banksters love having the illegals stream over the borders unfettered; adds more souls to the reaping.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 09:12 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Look at it this way. Your car broke down on the 101, where it's warm. My diesel truck gelled up the other day near the

I 29/I 90 junction, when it was -10 with -25 windchill. But I wasn't waiting for a bunch of Mexicans either so it's all relative.

Tue, 12/24/2013 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

I would love it if this were the top - but I don't think it will be that easy. I think we get apullback and then one last rally up - if there are any chapman wave followers out there you may agree.

Merry Christmas

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 03:03 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The dark ones know exactly what they are doing.

The poor sheeple think there is a plan that helps them in some way.

This guy is a mid-level disinformation agent; say enough to sound plausible and a bunch of B.S.

"Buy stawks" or "it's better but be careful" or "buy and hold for the long term".

*cough*

Sure buddy, I got some snake oil to sell you, cures everything.

$10/bottle, and that tang of Opium is coincidental.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 05:26 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

FRB Potemkin Village, that's what it is.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Wages may have bottomed, that is for sure. But outside of political corruption, seeds of reform alongside much political confusion we have a bigger headwind which is the boomers retiring. Older folks retiring means downsizing, reduction of consumption while straining medicare and ss so we'll print to cover the difference. Assets will have a big correction in the next couple of years so that will have some ripple effects for a year or more. Several years of stagflation but some trade will rebalance and there will be minor labor shortage meaning rising wages after that time. Stagflation and realizing that last crop of crooks pulled off such a heist is gloomy enough...

Merry Christmas at least we're not at war at the moment.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 20:41 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

And the fiat plan is probably to divert some of the excess fiat into ACA to keep it 'sustained'.

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." - Tyson.

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

I am soon to be heading over the river and through the woods to inflate my ass ets all day!

Wed, 12/25/2013 - 12:25 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

To Saxo Bank's Chief Investment Officer, Steen Jakobsen:

 

There are 50M Americans on food stamps you retarded fuck!!!!

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