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The Probability Of A Stock Market Crash Is Soaring

Tyler Durden's picture


While some individual stocks (cough TWTR cough) may have reached irrational bubble territory, the US equity market is undergoing a seemingly 'rational' bubble. However, as John Hussman illustrates in the following chart, the probability of a stock market crash is growing extremely rapidly.

Based on the this paper, Hussman simplifies the rational bubble as:

You only hold one long one more period if expected return is positive - requiring EXTRAGAIN x (1-p) + CRASHLOSS x (p) to be greater than 0.

As John goes on to explain, The diva is already singing, the only question is how long they hold the note...

Regardless of last week’s slight tapering of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing, speculators appear intent on completing the same bubble pattern that has attended a score of previous financial bubbles in equity markets, commodities, and other assets throughout history and across the globe.

The chart below provides some indication of our broader concerns here. The blue lines indicate the points of similarly overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions across history (specific definitions and variants of this syndrome can be found in numerous prior weekly comments). Sentiment figures prior to the 1960’s are imputed based on the relationship between sentiment and the extent and volatility of prior market fluctuations, which largely drive that data. Most of the prior instances of this syndrome were not as extreme as at present (for example, valuations are now about 35% above the overvaluation threshold for other instances, overbought conditions are more extended here, and with 58% bulls and only 14% bears, current sentiment is also far more extreme than necessary). So we can certainly tighten up the criteria to exclude some of these instances, but it’s fair to say that present conditions are among the most extreme on record.

This chart also provides some indication of our more recent frustration, as even this variant of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” conditions emerged as early as February of this year and has appeared several times in the past year without event. My view remains that this does not likely reflect a permanent change in market dynamics – only a temporary deferral of what we can expect to be quite negative consequences for the market over the completion of this cycle.



Narrowing our focus to the present advance, what concerns us isn’t simply the parabolic advance featuring increasingly immediate impulses to buy every dip – which is how we characterize the psychology behind log-periodic bubbles (described by Didier Sornette in Why Markets Crash). It’s that this parabola is attended by so many additional and historically regular hallmarks of late-phase speculative advances. Aside from strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions, speculators are using record amounts of borrowed money to speculate in equities, with NYSE margin debt now close to 2.5% of GDP. This is a level seen only twice in history, briefly at the 2000 and 2007 market peaks. Margin debt is now at an amount equal to 26% of all commercial and industrial loans in the U.S. banking system. Meanwhile, we are again hearing chatter that the Federal Reserve has placed a “put option” or a “floor” under the stock market. As I observed at the 2007 peak, before the market plunged 55%, “Speculators hoping for a ‘Bernanke put’ to save their assets are likely to discover – too late – that the strike price is way out of the money.”

The following chart is not a forecast, and certainly not something to be relied upon. It does, however, provide an indication of how Sornette-type bubbles have ended in numerous speculative episodes in history, in equities, commodities, and other assets, both in the U.S. and abroad. We are already well within the window of a “finite-time singularity” – the endpoint of such a bubble, but it is a feature of parabolas that small changes in the endpoint can significantly change the final value. The full litany of present conditions could almost be drawn from a textbook of pre-crash speculative advances. We observe the lowest bearish sentiment in over a quarter century, speculation in equities using record levels of margin debt, depressed mutual fund cash levels, heavy initial public offerings of stock, record issuance of low-grade “covenant lite” debt, strikingly rich valuations on a wide range of measures that closely correlate with subsequent market returns, faith that the Fed has put a “floor” under the market (oddly the same faith that investors relied on in 2007), and the proliferation of “this time is different” adjustments to historically reliable investment measures.



Even at 1818 on the S&P 500, we have to allow for the possibility that speculators have not entirely had their fill. In my view, the proper response is to maintain a historically-informed discipline, but with limited concessions (very small call option positions have a useful contingent profile) to at least reduce the temptation to capitulate out of undisciplined, price-driven frustration. Regardless of whether the market maintains its fidelity to a “log-periodic bubble,” we’ll continue to align our position with the expected return/risk profile as it shifts over time. That said, the “increasingly immediate impulses to buy every dip” that characterize market bubbles have now become so urgent that we have to allow for these waves to compress to a near-vertical finale.

The present log-periodic bubble suggests that this speculative frenzy may very well have less than 5% to run between current levels and the third market collapse in just over a decade.

As I advised in 2008 just before the market collapsed, be very alert to increasing volatility at 10-minute intervals.


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Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:13 | 4278134 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

It's a done deal, get out now... :)

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:15 | 4278140 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

This is bullish for tulip bulbs and bitcoins.....

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:30 | 4278168 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I think you meant silver and gold.  It's Christmas after all.  Presents for all holders of metal...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:30 | 4278173 flacon
flacon's picture

We had the same conversation this time last year, but S&P was 29% lower and gold was 28% higher. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:06 | 4278362 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Yukon Cornelius should be the zerohedge mascot.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:28 | 4278421 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

I agree!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:39 | 4278432 knukles
knukles's picture

It's just not fucked up enough, yet.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:07 | 4278599 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

May I say - I love these charts.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 05:39 | 4278668 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

All I can say is that the more f'd up TPTB mess with the futures and options, the more dramatic the crash will become. Hussman is on to something along with the sentiment surveys and bond market (non-govt) manipulation. This has all the makings of a 20% down day at some point next year, a 40-60% not being out of the question over a period of weeks.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:06 | 4278677 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture



Next is..


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:38 | 4278698 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I don't think the heavy stuff is going to come down for quite some time.


Sure, there's this on Drudge this morning.

Wall Street advisor recommends guns, ammo for protection in collapse...


But other than that......don't really see what the problem would be.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:44 | 4278724 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Not if my new years resolution comes true. All the A and B movies get busted at the same time on new years eve and get to spend new years day trying to find a get out of jail free card. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:32 | 4278801 Truthseeker2
Truthseeker2's picture
Global Financial Architecture and Economic Systems on Verge of Collapse


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:39 | 4278814 WordSmith2013
WordSmith2013's picture


Just what's happening under the radar!


Global Financial And Trading Platforms On System OVERLOAD
Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:45 | 4278821 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture




It's Cloward and Piven.....he learned it in college.


Word is he was on an Arab scholarship at the time.


Pretty sure CNN reported about it. Maybe it was CNBC....I can't remember now.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 10:41 | 4278932 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Which college ?

Nobody from his supposed classmates remembers even seeing him.

He is a legend all right, in spook speak.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:28 | 4278735 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

That's a start but he left out a lot for survival. Like, where are all these urbanites going to "bug out" to with their "bug out" bag or bucket??

People in rural areas will greatly appreciate them for bringing all the food to them!  And rural people are generally a LOT

better armed and trained so aggressive urbanites can expect a "warm" reception out int the country side.

Another thing is sand bags protect you not your loaded weapons as they are for offensive and counter attack actions.

And how about training!!??   Most people buying a firearm for "protection" never shoot with them and thus would be dead

in a combat situation when they have that first "limp wristed" failure to eject jam and panic trying to clear it. Especially

with a never fired semi automatic. So get a revolver if you're not going to practice a lot but then you better practice

rapid reloads. But you better be sure the expanded spent casing eject easily from the revolver cylinmder .

The there are the not so little issues such as actually having to hit the attacker and stop them.

So yes, have a bug out bag, a revolver, a GPS, And go to your nearest Civil Defense Shelter.   Oh wait...

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:50 | 4278833 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

Best just to report directly to the Super Dome.

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 03:20 | 4281265 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Stop it, I can't breathe. I say f it, I'm doomed, I'm fumbling my reloader, while people are shootin at me. My plan, and it is in it's infancy, is to just stay drunk for long periods of time. I took a trip to Vegas one year, and spent 5 days drunk. I had a beer in my hand every waking moment. I have pleasant memories of that trip. The craps dealer at the clown casino hit me in the hand hard for doing my patented straight six set. I could just turn it to like "Days of Wine and Roses". So, I'm guess I'm confessing, my plan is to become an alcoholic, and hopefully people who can handle battle reloading will prosper. That will be the decider, who can reload in battle. It's just weirder and werder. How weird can you stand it, before your love cracks? 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:21 | 4278389 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Perhaps, but the 10 year rate wasn't climbing through 3.0% last year. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:27 | 4278411 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Indeed.  I'm looking at a chart that basically is tracking the money supply.  It should be noted that said chart also looks a lot like the early stages of hyperinflation.  

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:26 | 4278493 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture

If you're looking at money supply, you're being misled. Every metric that measures inflation is showing little to no inflation concerns whatsoever.

The parabolic increase in money supply is, mostly, just excess reserves held by member banks at the Fed. Before the crisis, excess reserves were normally ~$10B or so. Now it's nearing $2T, which accounts for that scary parabolic chart of money supply that you're referencing. That money is just sitting there, earning a measly .25% and keeping the system liquid and well capitalized in case another deflationary buzz saw threatens to cut all assets in half again. All that excess liquidity backing up the banks' balance sheets is like having the worlds largest fire truck full of water parked in front of a known fire danger. If/when it's ever needed (like it was in 2008/9), it's there; until then, nothing's getting soaked. Gold and TIPS and the entire bond market are signaling that inflation is NOT a threat.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:58 | 4278561 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Couldn't agree more.  Money supply is only increasing for the 1%ers. Banks are not lending to the working class coutesy of ZIRP. Therefore money supply for the working class is dramatically decreasing. The FED is printing 75 bill a month to try and replace that lost money creation. Its only going to the 1%ers so in actuallity we are seeing 75 bill transferred from the working class to the elites every month. That increased money supply, offered on a platter to the elites, is being spent on luxury goods, high end real estate, art, and equity's. That is where the inflation is materializing. For all else apart from, fuel and food, deflationary forces are increasing. Wages are stationary at best. This equity bubble, along with all other luxury commodities, is likely to continue in conjunction with continued money printing. Where else can the money go? 

Is there something external that will trigger the masses into an awkening state. Not likely when they do not even know or care what is happening to them as a result of this economic system. When you understand that tax and jobs are irrelevent in this money printing environment you can appreciate that this bubble can absolutely continue. The working class are being controlled by jobs and taxes. What is the alternative however? I have asked myself that question many times and I cannot find an answer. Its shoot the moon or nothing unfortunately.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 02:54 | 4278594 derryb
derryb's picture

Is there something external that will trigger the masses into an awkening state?

Rising Interest rates will be the game changer.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:17 | 4278635 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture



What makes you think interest rates will rise? Since 1981, rates are on a 33 year trend toward ZERO.  As the supply of money increases, the competition for yield increases; as the competition for yield increases, the cost of money zooms toward zero with a few ups and downs along the way.  

Ask yourself, why was the 30 year mortgage 20% in 1981 and 3% 30+ years later? Why do you think banks are always encouraging you to "lock in your low rate NOW!"  They've said that every year for the past 20.. lol...  Do you really think banks want you to get the lowest rates?  NO!  They want you to pay the highest possible! Banks know that rates will slowly move to ZERO basis points over time, so they want you to lock in a 30 year contract with 450 basis points while they can still trap you.  Sure, rates might rise a bit, touching 5% or 6%....  but not for long, maybe a year or two... a very small fraction of your 30 year contract.  If you're not on a tight budget and you can withstand some temporary increases, the smartest thing you can do is sign a variable rate, 30-year mortgage that tracks the 10YR.     

If you believe in inflation -- meaning that money becomes less valuable over time -- then you must surely believe that the cost of money becomes equally less valuable over time.  If money becomes increasingly worthless, how can you charge more for it?  You can get away with it in the short run, but not the long run.  

Rates are going LOWER.  Few bumps, here and there.  But LOWER, over time.  I've got a 33 year chart to prove it.  

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:27 | 4278713 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

With regard to the 33 year chart; the past is no guarantee of future results.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:01 | 4278773 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

That 33 year chart you've got proves another thing; rates have broken out of the 33 year trend to the upside.  You might ask yourself, it the power hungry sociopaths in charge are going to make one big money grab from the commoners, what would higher rates do to help them steal you and your neighbors money?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 20:57 | 4280614 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

And where were rates 40 years ago?  33 years does not forever make.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 15:17 | 4279769 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Rising interest rates are the game changer... so that is why TPTB will never allow it to happen. They have learned from the Euro fiasco and won't let the bond vigilantes do that again. That is the real reason why the Fed is slowing controlling the bond market. It is why they now control about 1/3 of the market. It will be game over for the bond vigilantes when the Fed controls 51%. Federal budgets can explode to keep the FSA happy. Deficits won't matter because the Fed is just monetizing the debt. TPTB have gamed the system to pump and dump to take whatever assets are still held by the middle class. The sheeple are content to just have any roof over their head and SNAP cards in their wallet. The New Feudal World Order is coming Fast & Furious and the serfs are actually encouraging it. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:04 | 4278676 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

But eventually it must stop. Japan is much more advanced on that curve and half the country is now hollowed up. Soon (means in 2014) real inflation will pick up. We can already see it in the stores but the acceleration will be stiff. The 3% VAT rise in April will have an instant impact as will the devaluation of the Yen. Monetary instability of course has the opposite effect on the dollar as the last resort reserve currency but it is all based on trust and when trust goes so does the currency. So yes the music can go on for a while but not forever as for the "musicians", they will not stop "playing" but nobody expect them to anyway.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 02:09 | 4278571 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

so the fires are going to burn, they   open up the taps on the truck and all that liquidity is used up to douse the flames. What then? we're fresh out of liquid and more QE?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 19:59 | 4280494 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The best part is that "money" earning .25% was merely swiped into existence, not earned, and thus the interest is a gift. I always figured the excess reserves would be deployed to buy Treasuries no one wants, as a sort of deranged variant of QE.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:09 | 4278777 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

...actually the same conversation for 5 years - It's all Bullshit!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:13 | 4278481 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Always consider, big money is going in at the very very beginning;

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:19 | 4278640 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Tulip bulbs is, maybe, the only place your money is safe. There and apple jack. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:23 | 4278161 Dazman
Dazman's picture

And yet, the probability is still under 50% according to this chart.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:28 | 4278170 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

3 Oz Silver on that?  I'll take 3:1 90 days.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:45 | 4278198 The Mist
The Mist's picture

To be honest I'm not sure what to make of these charts, they pop up on ZH a couple of times every month, predicting a collapse of some sort, and then nothing happens.

In fact, the inaccuracy of these charts almost makes me believe all is well...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:38 | 4278299 Dazman
Dazman's picture

The truth is, everyone that is calling for a collapse is right. The problem is, nobody really knows the timing. Unfortunately, timing is everything. "The markets can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent".

Another favorite quote of mine is from Peter Borish in the Paul Tudor Jones documentary "Trader". To paraphrase... "You can't just stop a train. It will crash through a wall and keep going before it stops". I.e.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:53 | 4278455 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Honey we shouldn't have gone vacationing in Aspen this year, such a hassle to replumb the house. Probably time for us to move?


Tic toc, tic toc

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:21 | 4278643 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

"You can't just stop a train. It will crash through a wall and keep going before it stops".


Sounds like Obamacare

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:10 | 4278781 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

A widespread expectation of another $10,000,000,000 taper at the January 28-29 Fed meeting could be enough to crash the market.

In January 2000 it was the fear that interest rates would rise that led to a market collapse, when in fact Greenspan ended up lowering rates to counter the fear, but he was already too late and the nasdaq went from over 5,000 to 1,100.  It has happened before.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 14:32 | 4279625 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"In January 2000 it was the fear that interest rates would rise that led to a market collapse, when in fact Greenspan ended up lowering rates to counter the fear"


Greenspan was raising the FED rate in 2000, then stopped at 6.5%, prior to the Presidential election window of FED neutrality.  At the beginning of January 2001, Greenspan made an emergency rate cut of 1/2%, followed by another 1/2% at the January FED meeting.

The economy was fast approaching a recession.


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:11 | 4278600 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The Mist said:  "In fact, the inaccuracy of these charts almost makes me believe all is well..."

Precisely.  South Seas shares can only go up, and Black Tulip bulb values will never go down.

Bubbles require the confuzzlement of a reality that defies reality, and a frenzy to "not miss out".

It's just a matter of time, and if you can time the next crash you'll be rich; or broke if you can't.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:16 | 4278602 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

If I hadn't listened to Zero Hedge I'd have made 35% this year on my 401-k in stead of 25%.

Shit happens.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:16 | 4278742 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Keeping it is going to be the tricky part.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 10:27 | 4278904 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

"Being a language, mathematics may be used not only to inform but also, among other things, to seduce."

Financial markets are the machines in which much of human welfare is decided; yet we know more about how our car engines work than about how our global financial system functions. We lurch from crisis to crisis. In a networked world, mayhem in one market spreads instantaneously to all others—and we have only the vaguest of notions how this happens, or how to regulate it.

So limited is our knowledge that we resort, not to science, but to shamans. We place control of the world's largest economy in the hands of a few elderly men, the central bankers.

Benoît Mandelbrot

The (Mis)Behavior of Markets


Sun, 12/29/2013 - 20:54 | 4284137 Shooting Shark
Shooting Shark's picture

What would be interesting is the same data from the charts in this post along with some perturbations in the supposedly predictive chart (log something of Jan 2014) and a fit test to compare how, say, failures in December and February match compared to failure in January.  Or 2015.  Or never.

Instead we get charts with real data sourced from somewhere, imaginary data from somewhere rather more local, and then a lurid up or down SINGULAIRTY arrow drawn like a big ol dick on a concrete wall, just to make sure we get the point.


There's a lot of good stuff here.  There's a lot of crap, too.  And most of the crazy-hate is confined to the comments, except when that anti-semitic commie loon "George Washington" is posting.


(Edited for minor typos)

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:48 | 4278313 max2205
max2205's picture

I am pretty sure no crash will or could happen with 6 billion fake Fed Pomo entering the market every month

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:51 | 4278451 pavman
pavman's picture

Not to mention circuit breakers.  Derp.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:29 | 4278172 Freddie
Freddie's picture

We are in full on Zimbabwe territory.  I knew when Obam was "elected" that he would be Mugabe 2 but hoped I was wrong.   Nice job Democrats,

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:02 | 4278227 myshadow
myshadow's picture

right, and if willard got in, the world would have golden sunrises.

Get a clue. No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:57 | 4278349 Incubus
Incubus's picture

be warned. having a clue is life threatening in some parts of murrika.



Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:02 | 4278361 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Nice job Demonrats and Re[tard]publicans.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:57 | 4278729 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



We just call them all Progressives to avoid confusion.


That way we don't have to take sides.....because there is no real side to take. Turns out they all work for the same cult.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:08 | 4278778 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

And guess who voted them in....and CONTINUE to vote them in ?

We the People.

It's the best we can do folks......garbage in......garbage out.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:56 | 4278838 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

jumbo been around here a while, no? diebold does the voting and it's selected not elected or are you that dumb.

the people vote them in LOL.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 14:16 | 4279578 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

LOL !!!!

Take your meds junior.....and let the grownups discuss grownup things.

The people ARE that stupid.  The people DO vote for their self interests.....which means we get these selfish bastards in power.

And EVEN IF you somehow by some quirk in quantum physics were correct.....that DIEBOLD <snicker> elects our leaders regardless of who we vote for....the people in power STILL came from us....the PEOPLE.

There there....junior.  It was just a bad dream about the Diebold boogyman.  Here's a glass of warm milk.  Go back to bed now.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 14:24 | 4279602 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Oh....and by the way fucktard.....if you have evidence of the fact that Diebold controls our elections why haven't you been able to convince all those SMART people out there they are getting duped every 2 and 4 years?

Here junior....I made nice shiny tin foil hat for you......have fun now.

It's losers like you who invent conspiracy theories in order to make yourselves feel better thinking you know the truth and that somehow gives you a little control in your life...... when the truth is you HAVE NO POWER AT ALL to stop the conspiracies that are perpetrated out in the the the Federal Hollyweird....etc.....etc.

But if believing in stupid conspiracy theories of evil Diebold machines programmed to change votes en masse helps you to get over your feelings of inadequacy and hopelessness about the situation around you....fine.  I suppose it's better than blowing your mind out on drugs.  But it's delusional just the same.  And also just as useless in changing the situation.

Go back to sleep again junior.  It's only when you are asleep that you can believe in the American Dream.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 02:26 | 4278577 CognacAndMencken
CognacAndMencken's picture



Weimar, Zimbabwe and Argentina share a common thread that is CRITICAL for any currency to hyperinflate: those countries owed their debts in foreign denominations.... that makes all the difference in the world!  The US does NOT share this commonality with the aforementioned countries... we owe US dollars, meaning we do not need access to fx markets to pay our debts. Being wholly dependent on an exchange rate -- rather than a printing press -- to service a debt is EXACTLY what made those currencies implode. That, coupled with a weak, vulnerable military made them sitting ducks in the fx markets.  If you don't understand this....Read...Learn....Look it up....

There is a reason why the US has increased its debt by trillions and entire bond market (specifically TIPS) has yawned. Resorting to conspiracy nonsense to explain economics and fx markets is no different than relying on religion to explain a rainbow.   

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:34 | 4278614 TheLoveArtist
TheLoveArtist's picture

The end result is the same, ie when nobody wants to be friends with the bully, ie take US dollars, all the worthless currency will end up on these shores and hyperinflation will be the result.  Why would anyone want to do business with the USA, the Chinese make absolutely everything one needs.  The world is turning to China, slowly but surely.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:02 | 4278626 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

The day we default, every other nation defaults...and they aren't going to be too happy about that fact.

There will be international consequenses.  There will be domestic consequiences.

We're not immune to the idiocy factor built into this system.  We WILL fall.  And we will pay dearly.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 17:38 | 4280178 joe90
joe90's picture

The world reserve $ is backed by oil; in 2008 currency "swaps" injected fresh USD reserves at central bank level into every country that needed to be "bailed out" (irrespective of the quality of the underlying balance sheets in that country).  Next time, will it be impossible to bail out every country, and the worst are told (say; Japan, Egypt) "get your balance sheets in order before you get the spice" which they then find impossible to do.  The periphery is sacrificed to save the core.  Selective default rather than all at once?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:06 | 4278629 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"The US does NOT share this commonality with the aforementioned countries... we owe US dollars, meaning we do not need access to fx markets to pay our debts."

You are correct about that.

However, one must wonder what the effect of derivatives will be on the dollar, especially as we approach the Line of Death (3% on the 10Y Treasury).

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:07 | 4278631 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Does gold owed to other countries (like germany) count?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:23 | 4278745 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Don't know why we just don't give it back to them.....I for one am sick of hearing them bitch about it.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:39 | 4278812 CH1
CH1's picture

Don't know why we just don't give it back to them

Who is WE? Identification with the state is the tool of your enslavement.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:47 | 4278825 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture




Did you get lost on your way to HuffPo?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:16 | 4278601 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

And Mittens would have been just as bad.

The figureheads don't run the show, the banks do.

Obama is, however, a rougher cut of sail.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:55 | 4278727 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yea I was concerned about that too, my life insurance agent told me my claim was still good, but that your problem is the banks still have your money.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:30 | 4278686 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

oh i KNOW that the Republicans are right alongisde them licking their lips   dont kid yourself-they both work for the same masters

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:44 | 4278194 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I'm guessing that no one wants to sell before the end of the year to lock in capital gains. Some selling in January just might set off an avalanche.

Nah...what am I thinking? Dow 20k in 2014!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:11 | 4278244 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture
The Probability Of A Stock Market Crash Is Soaring - Yet our readers are snoring...

Well, at least they gave a timeframe this time around. If we're yet-ever-higher after January 2014, then....

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:22 | 4278405 Gankfest
Gankfest's picture

Once the stock market broke 16k it was a done deal...

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:15 | 4278700 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I couldn't agree more. If you have profits from the recent stock market rally; take them. The possible reward gets smaller and smaller every day; and the probability of a downwave accordingly increases.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:42 | 4278760 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

‘Stock Market Bubbles Don’t Burst in ZIRP’

Historically, major asset bubble crashes have always been preceded by rising short-term interest rates.


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:16 | 4278135 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

It can't be the Top.

The Big People haven't resigned to "Spend more time with my family".


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:54 | 4278335 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The Big People don't want to resign right now, it means they have to return to the masses. And the is no safety there.

All prepped up and no place to go.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:17 | 4278385 NIHILIST CIPHER

CW         The "BIG PEOPLE" have luxury bunkers in the mountains near New Delhi, they will take their families with them. This info is easily sourced on the internet. They will not announce when they are leaving.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:33 | 4278423 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

So if some guy named Alaric opens a Walmart near Mumbai, I should get worried?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:16 | 4278484 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Say what???

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:53 | 4278558 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

that is: "say what again?"

(cue say-what-again to cite another avatar)


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 10:45 | 4278941 Charles Wilson
Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:00 | 4278463 Jack's Digestib...
Jack&#039;s Digestible Ideas's picture

Tell that to the increasingly vacant seats on the Board of Governors.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:17 | 4278139 Richard III
Richard III's picture

Aye, but could not the 'Diva' pull a Bieber and retire, leaving the creature intact ?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:16 | 4278142 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Jan 14th

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:31 | 4278171 NIHILIST CIPHER

The date should add up to 33.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:43 | 4278188 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

So...the 18th?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:02 | 4278226 NIHILIST CIPHER

01/16/2014          33

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:48 | 4278306 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

1 + 16 + 14 = 31   No?

I'm completely lost.

But I know if we every figure out how to add to 33, you can keep doing it by incrementing the month by one while decrementing the day by one.  You could make it add up every month of the year in 2014.

2/17/14 = 33

3/16/14 = 33

4/15/14 = 33  


This is idiotic.  I'm down-voting myself for even posting.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:00 | 4278351 NIHILIST CIPHER

@nodebt          I see that your ability for date addition is not of the high forgot to add the (2)  to the 14.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:14 | 4278381 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's why I'm lost.  I don't know where to break the numbers.  Should I add the 2 or add the whole 20 from the year?  If I add just the 2 shouldn't I also be adding all the individual digits together from the month and day as well?

01/16/2014 = 0+1+1+6+2+0+1+4 = 15

I don't understand these crazy rules.  It's like we're making this up as we go along.  

No matter how you add this up, I'm pretty sure I could make it work for a day in every month of this entire year.  i.e WORTHLESS.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:23 | 4278396 NIHILIST CIPHER

@nodebt           I have seen dates added in many ways, there are no rules that I am aware of, but ritual dates and times are me.   01/16/2014 was not a prediction on my part just coaching the other poster for fun.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:28 | 4278500 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

33 is the Freemasons number for power. Jesus died at 33. Atlantis was located along the N. 33rd parallel. Roswell is also located at the N. 33rd parallel. Sun worshipers claim that when the sun is at 33 degrees, evil derives its energy from hell.

OMG its a conspiracy!!!!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:52 | 4278557 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

Do the Freemasons drink Rolling Rock?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 02:10 | 4278570 NickVegas
NickVegas's picture

Just follow the pattern, the pattern, don't ya see it? You people are funny. Keep rockin it. It's like a sick metaphor for our educational system.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 02:44 | 4278590 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"3/16/14 = 33"

Cue the sound of Jaws in water music:


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:11 | 4278633 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I thought the answer to life, the universe and everything (including the market) was 42.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:38 | 4278183 Alethian
Alethian's picture


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:21 | 4278146 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Nothing is crashing until there is a plausible place to lay blame that will enrage the sheepltons such that they demand MOAR control, MOAR oversight, MOAR government intervention. I don't think blaming the evil banksters will play again, although eradicating 'Evil Capitalism' might.......

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:13 | 4278238 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

A Lunatic       "Nothing is crashing until there is a plausible place to lay blame that will enrage the sheepltons"



However, in chaos,  almost anything becomes plausible for blame. If your family hasn't eaten for 3 days and I have food to share with you, would you entertain whatever plausible theory to get that food?

It's not always about blaming the evil banksters. It's about various groups gaining power over society and you. Banking has just been the most visible and easiest target to see. Now we have healthcare. What next? In a dumbed down society, a propagandizing media will TELL you who to blame regardless of who is to blame.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:57 | 4278347 BandGap
BandGap's picture

And in steps WW3. Problem solved in a lot of ways.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:23 | 4278392 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

There must be a catalyst sufficient to cause the majority of people to submit to further encroachment of their current lifestyle choices and their ability to choose must be sufficiently interrupted with their attention diverted to an 'obvious' source of discomfort (banksters, Iran, axis of evil, al qaeda) in order to cause them to act within the framework of a predetermined model that achieves the desired results of the bankstercriminalpoliticalelite. There will never be an un-orchestrated collapse that is advantageous to the common working man.......

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:02 | 4278464 pavman
pavman's picture

What really is the recourse?  Its not like we can march on washington and string up the politicians by their genitals.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:35 | 4278754 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Why not (after Grand Jury trials, of course)?

Sat, 12/28/2013 - 16:53 | 4282168 fedupwhiteguy
fedupwhiteguy's picture

Don't waste your time with those useful idiots. psst!!! go after the officers..... duh!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:51 | 4278448 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Who do you suggest for our new nemesis? I blame Santa. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:58 | 4278462 pavman
pavman's picture

Pretty sure any future crash can be safely attributed to Bush.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:19 | 4278149 kedi
kedi's picture

Yeah it will crash. Too much QE to care. The taxpayers and their ancestors will cover it. The BIG shareholders will be made whole. QE is to let the few, buy more, on the rest of the little peoples dime. At this point, a stock market crash, will only hurt those, not in the market in a big way. The Gov and Fed will bail out the big boys. The TBTF. QE is to let the few buy up everything at no interest charge. A crash will just shake off the few that are not in favor, control. When the TBTF, Fed and bought Gov decide the time is right to let it crash and screw out the last of the little people. It will be allowed to crash. The big boys will own everything. The rest will pay the difference.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:31 | 4278150 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

According to consensus analyst estimates 90% of S&P 500 companies are expected to grow earnings in 2014 (median growth rate of about 10%).. as long as adjusted EPS keeps coming in line or beating expectations.. this will continure to trend higher. The safe bet is that SP500 will rise to 2050 by next year.. Historically the asset class (large cap stocks) have a standard deviation of 8%, so even a 16% pull back would not really break this bull market.

Look at the DJIA, how can you honestly bet that companies like (CAT/XOM/JPM/DIS/V/UNH) will lose money next year? Its a stock pickers market.. some companies will outperform others.. even between the hype internet stocks you can already seperate the bad from the ugly.. (LNKD is shit/ YELP ok/ P ok/ FB good). The REAL contrarian play right now is to just go long and sell volatility.. The risk is to the upside.. the numbers start coming in better than expected and the deer in the headlights will be when GDP posts something like 4%+.. (its possible).. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:40 | 4278182 Doctor of Reality
Doctor of Reality's picture

Did your mother have any kids that lived?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:44 | 4278193 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Looks like 'Robo Trader' has a new handle.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:46 | 4278201 akak
akak's picture

I fully expect that his foolish and ignorant faith in the mainstream propaganda, er, "consensus", is going to blowtorch his savings in the end.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:59 | 4278225 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I LOLed at the 4%+ GDP bit, and hoped he was just trolling.  If we get a 4% increase in GDP, it won't be from anything healthy.  At this point, that much of a boost in GDP would come from things like Wall Street bring a brand new scam online or inflation or war or simply redefining GDP. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:44 | 4278439 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

Reminds me of a line from an old cop movie where the detective is listening to the local radio station news report about the cops busting a drug ring with a $3million STREET value. The detective laughs to himself and says, "What STREET was that?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:47 | 4278195 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

"It's a stock picker's market..."  LOL. As if that bromide isn't thrown around CNBC 100 X/day. Give me a break. It's a false rally based on printed cash (among many things).  When people run for the exit--all at once--it will be ugly to say the least.    

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:23 | 4278262 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

the only people running for the exits are the ZHs buying SPY 2% OTM weekly puts (every single week) for the past year..


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:26 | 4278270 jcaz
jcaz's picture

You're right, Sparky- why, this tree is gonna grow to the sky....

BTW, you'd sound a lot more intelligent if you went beyond this "buy this dips cause I'm 21 and my econ prof says so" mentality......

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:17 | 4278278 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

how about aircraft carrier movements in the gulf? 

the dragons are coming!!



Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:45 | 4278315 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Actually, I stay out of the market all together, and there are other ZHers like me.  Were I to play in the market, I would trade based on what the Fed appeared to be doing, and it would probably work fairly well for a while, then something would break or the Fed would lie, and then I'd wind up with some banker cock in my ass.  Since I don't like any cock up my ass, which is a condition that would be exacerbated by the fact that bankers are exceedingly filthy creatures, I'll pass. 


But, go ahead and continue to play in the markets.  Just keep some Astroglide handy, because nothing is permanent. 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:08 | 4278375 new game
new game's picture

El V


lol, yea i get the visual. The dicks are coming! whole lotta 401 statements are going to be mailed out to confirm all is good again!

but alas the dicks are coming. sidelines yes-3 years running...

all cash, out of all market including 403 lquidation, no real estate, cash flow pos mo to mo.

watching carefully for an all out lead purch. pullback underway, barring a shooting.

perfect investment.(IMO). dick proof.

chart the 9mm, 223, 45 and 308.

bit heavy though.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:14 | 4278253 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Ummm... @ 4% GDP where do you see interest rates? 10yr @ 4%, 4.5%.... the Fed does have a $4.5Trillion interest rate sensitive (what is that DV01 ?) balance sheet to worry about.... 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:59 | 4278346 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

i dont worry about the feds balance sheet.. trading pnl is meaningless to them.. most of that paper will be held to maturity.. 10yr at 4% in 2015 is fine.  the marginally negative implications to corps should be offset by the positive developments.


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:35 | 4278429 Keyser
Keyser's picture

What about the $440 trillion in Interest Rate Derivatives lurking in the background if the 10 year rates goes to 4.0%? 


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:36 | 4278434 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Shhhhhh.  We cannot upset his world.  While I think there are still further manipulations to come regarding the 10 year, he need not know about that.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:24 | 4278265 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Dude, just sell your 3 shares of Tesla and get out- you ain't gonna pump this market with babble....  We leave that to the adults.....

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:42 | 4278305 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

All this dickwad is saying is don't fight the fed.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:19 | 4278151 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

BTFATH...but remember to bring your own oxygen.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:22 | 4278158 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

In the real world, uncontrolled growths are called cancers and are not at all beneficial...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:26 | 4278162 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

C'mon, Hussman?! Seriously? Really now, let's start being honest here. What hedge fund paid you to post this? I know, their Q1 '14 numbers depend on crushing as many retail shorts as they possibly can. I just hope you were well-paid for posting this retail chum. Somebody remind me, how many shorts got killed circa 98-00?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:39 | 4278301 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

That's what they said about George Washington for 12 years.

Besides, there are no more retail shorts.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:26 | 4278167 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The dollar is really starting to roar so it might not be the 90's per se but it sure has the feel of it. Tesla and Solar City have had "burn rates" for some time now...I wouldn't call what the Fed is doing as some type of "soft landing" for instance. Ironically what the Fed is doing could be seen as "tightening" making the equity market's response all the more...emotional. If instead of a crash you get a correction then I would be paying attention for some type of "real" push into bubble territory. That would require a broad based move in the dollar higher first. So far the euro, pound and yuan have not allowed that.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:35 | 4278178 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Hussman again? The guy's funds are a fucking trainwreck. Not a one is beating the market this year, not a one has returns in the double digits. The guy is a loser.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:39 | 4278186 Gusher
Gusher's picture

The market is almost all emotion at this point. While zerohedge has been negative for years based on some very gloomy but real stats, that just can't be translated to a stock market prediction.  This market could go 30% higher!  And then crash to where we are now. Or worse. or not so worse.  Who the heck it seems to be more a casino every day.  But 4% growth next year?  NO WAY!  Too many headwinds.   The biggest being we still have a president named Obama.  But if Obamacare is repealed and we do go all in on energy like our chief liar promised 2 years ago, that would help. But...ain't going to happen.  More likely that Obama's ship is going down and he is bringing all of us with him.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:26 | 4278274 bks
bks's picture

Don't understand this.  S&P500 is up 100% since Obama was first elected.


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:23 | 4278608 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Food stamp usage is up about 50% since that time as well, from 31,939,110 to 47,305.667.


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:50 | 4278762 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



The boy king has also done wonders for the workforce non-participation rate....which explains why the unemployment rate is so low.


They explained it all on CNBC.....I think.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:42 | 4278187 Gusher
Gusher's picture

The market is almost all emotion at this point. While zerohedge has been negative for years based on some very gloomy but real stats, that just can't be translated to a stock market prediction.  This market could go 30% higher!  And then crash to where we are now. Or worse. or not so worse.  Who the heck it seems to be more a casino every day.  But 4% growth next year?  NO WAY!  Too many headwinds.   The biggest being we still have a president named Obama.  But if Obamacare is repealed and we do go all in on energy like our chief liar promised 2 years ago, that would help. But...ain't going to happen.  More likely that Obama's ship is going down and he is bringing all of us with him.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:29 | 4278543 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

People cannot seem to 'get it' that Backdoor was a UDT guy hired to scuttle the ship on purpose.

He is a Frogman with a mission.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:45 | 4278197 dcohen
dcohen's picture

I guess just because Hussman says so, the markets will crash, all men to the trenches, the talking disaster is still talking.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:54 | 4278209 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

This Diva  is a robot fueled by the Fed, so she can hold her high note for far longer than most people can imagine. The market cannot crash until everyone is all-in, and the shoeshine boyz and the Chinese massage ladies are touting stocks. Bubbles always rise the fastest right before the end. Before this one ends the SPX could be rising by 1000 points a day. When Tyler capitulates and goes long, it will crash.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:55 | 4278215 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

At this point in time, the market has limited upside. Gold has limited downside. If you get out now and fully into PM's,could you not flip your position into unlimited upside?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:40 | 4278431 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Think of the likely outcome of gold when fiat inflates. TPTB will find some way to tax, control, confiscate, demonize its owners.  I remember as a kid when silver coin was taken out of circulation the radio was apealing to patriotism to not hurt the american economy with 'silver hoarding'.  My patriotic step father had a 5 gallon jug of silver coins too heavy to carry that he felt guilty for hoarding and took to the bank to put back into circulation.  All the bank tellers gathered around to split the silver coins themselves, so the 5 gallons of silver coins never went into circulation. Look out for your future, I promise the FED and our government is not looking out further than their next election at best.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:57 | 4278221 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

It won't crash until faith in the counterfeit paper is lost (this is inevitable).  Buy your earplugs now.  The result will be deafening.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:02 | 4278230 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i dont see how it can crash. 

jim cramer told me this bull market is for real and will continue through 2014.


all these amazing companies r doing so well according to msm, like amzn, fb, goog, twtr, aapl, u name it, everything is great.


did u see the gdp number for quarter 3? it was amazing, i am so hopeful.


i have been told there r no headwinds in the long term, europe is totally fixed, the u.s is recovering, obamacare is very for the economy, housing is booming, as jim cramer says '' buy buy buy''.


in all seriousness though,  nothing pisses me off more than the market going up on a daily basis ( and no i am not in the market anymore, have been on sidelines for a while, so im not losing money shorting it, i am out of market fully) seeing the smiles on these assholes faces, its like so fucking fake, a fucking 5 year old can fucking make money in this market bc u do not need to know anything about any companies, every stock just goes up bc bernanke and yellen say so.


i want blood and i want blood now in this market.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:06 | 4278364 Alethian
Alethian's picture

Sorry for my ignorance - headwinds in the long term? 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:23 | 4278605 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Boeing up 80% in one year, even though the 'Screamliner' has flammable batteries and panels that fall off mid-air.

Oh yeah, Twitter has a gerat revenue mondel.


Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:02 | 4278233 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Let me share a story about a mailman who is declaring faked disability to fuck over the democrat system. He can game $1,500/month plus 3 children to yield $7,000/ month government dole retirement. He plans to jet off to the Philippines for retirement.


The last time we spoke, was during the election. I asked, how is your negro working out for you? He fired back, better than if Romney was President. Here’s my plan.. see above. I egged him on, he is scared if the US dollar goes tits up. I asked, what happens when your revenue stream no longer arrives in the Philippines? He picked up his plate and disappeared for the remainder of our visit. / fucking true story from yesterday. / deviant mother fucker I am. “>)



Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:00 | 4278523 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Better to be the fucker or the fuckee?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!