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Summary Of Latest Overnight Market Meltup

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The latest overnight meltup which has pushed the DJIA and S&P to new implied record opens has been driven by, what else, the falling Yen, which after tumbling to fresh new 5 year lows following the release of the BOJ minutes (which said nothing new), has sent both the Nikkei higher by 1%, to post-2008 highs of 16,174, while the S&P, up about 5 points just shy of 1840, and has only three trading days in which it should close the gap to the central banks' price target of 1900 as we first showed in April.

In the absence of any actual newsflow (we now live in a world in which both good and bad news are P/E multiple beneficial, just continue keeping an eye on the EURJPY and the USDJPY - these are the only two signals tht matter for the market.

The other, far less relevant, overnight bulletin points are summarized by Bloomberg:

  • Treasuries steady, with 10Y yields holding near YTD high seen in Sept.; trading quiet with U.K. closed for Boxing Day and before New Year’s holiday next week.
  • The Turkish lira weakened to a record low vs USD after a third government minister resigned amid a corruption probe and urged Prime Minister Erdogan to do the same
  • Shinzo Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine on Mao’s birthday, drawing a quick rebuke from China for paying respects at a site that memorializes war-dead including World War II criminals
  • China estimates that growth slowed to 7.6% his year, with mounting challenges putting pressure on the nation’s traditional growth model of investment-led spending, according to Xinhua
  • Thai police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters trying to break into a Bangkok arena where political parties were registering for a snap election meant to ease months of unrest
  • A homemade bomb exploded alongside a public bus near a Cairo campus, coming two days after a deadly attack on a Nile Delta police headquarters that prompted Egypt’s military- backed government to brand the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group
  • The U.K. government is considering rule changes that would make it easier for new banks and alternative finance providers to provide funding to small and medium-sized companies
  • From Maryland to Hawaii, Obamacare’s state-run enrollment operations are running into technical difficulties, creating new headaches for the White House even as the federal insurance website finds its footing
  • Former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, in a Christmas message on a London television station, called government surveillance worse than anything envisioned by George Orwell in “1984”
  • BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS narrows to new YTD low 129bps; $50b has priced this month. High Yield Master II OAS narrows 4bps to 396bps, new tight since 2007; nearly $21b priced in Dec. CDX High Yield closed at 108.48, third consecutive record, from 108.35; YTD low 101.03 (June 24)
  • European sovereign markets closed. Nikkei gains, China stocks decline to four-month lows; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude little changed, copper and gold higher
 

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Thu, 12/26/2013 - 08:34 | 4276444 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The falling yen, short memory's, and doomsday for all, coming to a theater near you.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 08:44 | 4276450 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Get up.....brew coffee....make the donuts....print some more money.

 

Printer 536 is acting like it's running a little hot.....better tell the morning shift to keep an eye one it.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 08:56 | 4276462 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You have now crossed over into The Twilight Zone....again and again and....

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 09:32 | 4276509 balanced
balanced's picture

Guess having the 10-year at 2.98 wasn't worth mentioning.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 10:05 | 4276562 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

How does a falling Yen force the S&P higher?

All I can come up with is -

People borrow yen - low interest rate - convert to dollars and as long as the yen keeps dropping they will be ahead when they convert the dollars back to yen - to pay off the loan.

While they wait they need to invest in something - go US equities?

Unwind could be a bitch if we get a 10% correction.

 

 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 11:05 | 4276657 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

a-p-i...that's pretty much how it works: botrrow in cheap Yen to buy ANYTHING in the capital mkts & pray there isn't a massive Yen reversal, which leads to major problems.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 12:43 | 4276876 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Reversal = big problems. Especially for those on margin, which are record numbers.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 10:25 | 4276584 Danno Anderson
Danno Anderson's picture

Japanese government bonds lost 3.68% of their value yesterday.  Things are falling apart.

Will scared money finally start buying gold or fall back on the historical norm of US bonds ?

Ol Danno's charts say the scared money is going to start buying the precious metals PDQ not US bonds. 

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