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Twitter Now Has A Larger Market Capitalization Than 80% Of All S&P 500 Companies

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As everyone is well aware by now, Twitter investors and speculators have been on a sharp, sudden and very relentless buying spree, sending the company nearly 50% higher since the first week of December, and nearly doubling it since late November.

Why the stock has exploded the way it has, nobody knows, and frankly nobody cares: it has entered that mythical zone of raging momentum where things work, until they don't for whatever reason. But in order to present readers with a sense of where TWTR's $40 billion market cap, which is greater than 403, or 80%, of all S&P 500 companies, puts in in the context of several companies all of which have a market cap that is lower than Twitter's, we have shown on the chart below Twitter's 2014 projected Revenue compared to this same universe of immediately smaller S&P500 companies. Again, just for the sake of perspective.

Certainly, we have no doubt that Twitter's growth curve, based on the realistic assumption of infinite and growing advertising budgets, will promptly eclipse not only the revenues but certainly the earnings and cash flows of all the below-listed companies, and why not all other companies, both in the US and the world, too. Surely, more idiotic things have happened under Bernanke's centrally planned regime.

 

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Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:01 | 4277985 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Moar Bullshit.

Throw another log on the fire...and pour me a stiff one.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:18 | 4278016 flacon
flacon's picture

I am old enough to remember when investors put money in "internet malls", thinking that "future growth" will make them a millionaire. Same thing with "internet portals", you remember, those "starting points" for your "web experience". 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:22 | 4278021 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

I still remember Webvan.

 

I also owned a bunch of shares of something called (something)2business or something like that.  Those were the good old days of worthless crap being worth a shit load for some odd reason...  wait a second!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:34 | 4278060 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Twitter = location between twat and shitter.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:43 | 4278079 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

#ExtraordinaryPopularDelusionsAndTheMadnessOfCrowds

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:52 | 4278091 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Indeed, it is the nature of the maddened crowd to frenzy round the most fashionable of speculations - particularly those whose earnings multiples and dividend yields are suffixed by, "not meaningful."

+1

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:07 | 4278107 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

.....................zzzzzzzzzzz

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:33 | 4278175 foodisgood
foodisgood's picture

Earnings and revenue and cash flow. Those are so not relevant.

It is all about retaining eyeballs - money is just pouring out of em.

Hurry and get with the program as sight will soon give way to a plug into your spine but by then there will only be BitCoin to judge worth.

Que fonestar...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:13 | 4278255 lewy14
lewy14's picture

So, how might twitter be worth what it's trading at?

If eyeballs really do get monetized.

If you aren't paying for an app, you are not the customer. You are the product.

Twitter's users will get monetized. Productized, if you will, just as Google's users have; just as Facebook's users have.

The NSA isn't the only one interested in what everybody's thinking and who is influential (and on what topics). Every Fortune 500 company is building their own little NSA and bespoke Ministry of Truth. And there are many companies - startups, mostly - which are helping them do this.

Once the whole "data-mining the interest graph" technology ecosystem becomes ripe enough, Twitter will pick some winners and either start charging for the data, or buy the companies for their talent and technology - which will then be applied to the motherlode, the twitter "firehose". 

And the global corporations will know even more about you - who you are online, how bright you are, if you're a troll or a smart guy that people pay attention to. If you're a troublemaker or you go with the flow. If you complain and cost overhead or if you're a happy camper. If you're the type that writes bad reviews. If you're prone to talkback. 

And you will be dealt with accordingly. For you, a special deal on the latest model. For you? Sorry, out of stock.

They know some of this stuff already of course but the twitter miners will provide some nice big puzzle pieces that are currently missing.

And yeah, I do know all this for a fact, firsthand. And yeah, this is all I will / can say. Left plenty of crumbs to GIFY.

But does this make TWTR a buy? Damned if I know. But "discounted cash flow" is not how to value it; of that I am 100% certain.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:50 | 4278449 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

That works out to $285,714,285.71(4....) per character.  Seems reasonable...

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:41 | 4278647 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

yup - seems legit!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:40 | 4278688 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

That market cap is absolutly okay if you have profits per share that high like Twitter ...  btw, can anyone of you experts tell something me about those Twitter profits?

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 05:15 | 4278658 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm working on a project to do something quite similar in a different area.

The components are mostly ready for the glue to bring it all together.

BTW, the recent NLP work from stanford has made some major inroads with applications across all sectors.

http://nlp.stanford.edu:8080/sentiment/rntnDemo.html

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:41 | 4278722 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Nice demo. I'm aware of the Stanford work and I know some companies that make use of it. Personally I think sentiment analysis has a place (call center stuff) but might be overrated for social network analysis. (Might).

Have you read "Six Degrees" by Duncan Watts?

 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 14:18 | 4279575 malikai
malikai's picture

On the list now. I usually go for the deep technical stuff, but this book sounds pretty cool.

Got a long flight coming up and this looks like just the read for it.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:15 | 4278636 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

But... but... but... this time is different! Fundermentawls 'n balins-she3ts don't matter!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:44 | 4278081 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Isn't that the Twainter?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:58 | 4278099 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

The convergence of the twat and the shitter .

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:20 | 4278155 booboo
booboo's picture

Thats a small internet company called Tainter

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:48 | 4278726 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Such a serious name; you can tell it's a real industry; very important to the productivity of the USA; and therefore it's just fine it's worth more than 80% of the companies on the S&P500.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:29 | 4278041 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

.

"The Internet? We are not interested in it"

- Bill Gates, 1993

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:01 | 4278106 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Bill Gates is one of the dumbest smart guys out there and a evil asshole to boot...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:11 | 4278248 Major Malfunction
Major Malfunction's picture

An evil asshole who, since 2007, has given $28 Billion (yes, billion, not million) to various charities .. 48% of his net worth.

He is way not evil. You must be getting him mixed up with the true devilspawn, Mark .. SomethingorOther, head of .. Faceblog, or some such. He's the one who deserves a boot ..

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:58 | 4278352 putaipan
putaipan's picture

yeah. eugenics programs are expensive.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:24 | 4278404 localsavage
localsavage's picture

Yah because giving a bunch of money doesn't even effect your lifestyle and plastering your name all over these foundations in a look at me look at me fashion makes you great these days.  I have mor e respect for the little old lady who donates to her church....

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:18 | 4278702 dognamedabu
dognamedabu's picture

That church that promises people eternal damnation or the one that says God lives on the moon?

 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 08:52 | 4278768 starfcker
starfcker's picture

depends on what you view as a charity. immigrant rights groups don't qualify, in my view. fuck bill gates, and every other globalist scum. globalization is not the problem. destroying the mother ship (america) in the name of globalization is

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:28 | 4278043 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

During the internet bubble, Blue Mountain Arts (an online greeting card site) got bought for $780 million dollars.  I think the founder bought it back a few years later for 20 million.  Those were the days.  Suckers were everywhere.

http://news.cnet.com/ExciteHome-buys-online-greeting-card-site-for-780-m...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:16 | 4278017 Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

so what you are saying is........."BUY"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:38 | 4278063 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

But what is it backed by?  Seems like a virtual asset to me.

Should I have used the <sarc> tag?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:17 | 4278258 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

Good point Kirk, seems that a lot of money goes into Twitter, but nary a criticism of its ephemeral electrons being used to send messages.

Eh, par for the course in this shanty-town bereft of all critical thinking.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:11 | 4278782 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Follow TWTR at  #Bullshit

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 19:59 | 4277986 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

All without a sock puppet as their mascot.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:03 | 4277990 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

What will be funny is if, once the TWTR bubble pops, it takes the rest of the market with it.  I get the impression that a lot of people looking for some big event to kick it off, like Lehman failing, but wouldn't it be funny if it was just Twitter's stock price declining?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:23 | 4278028 The man with po...
The man with pointy horns's picture

It would be even funnier if it meant the demise of Twitter.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 01:52 | 4278559 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Twitterspace says what?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:03 | 4277992 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I think it is because the name sounds like something a woman''s clitoris does when she sees me.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:03 | 4277993 Lotionboy
Lotionboy's picture

I like to call it twatter...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:11 | 4278004 TulsaTime
TulsaTime's picture

AS IF we needed another example of how removed the market is from the economy. Cue the creepy music for the rapidly approaching alpacalypse, malinvestment is the only investment going on now. How many trillion will not be enough this time? TARP II bailout estimated at only 12T, still not enough to save BOA !

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:33 | 4278005 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

And with Facebooks valuation priced at future earnings for the next one hundred years what possibly could go wrong?

Its a sad day when 2 of Americas biggest products for export are twitters and Likes. How far as a nation we have slid.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:13 | 4278009 max2205
max2205's picture

Shit happens

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:19 | 4278228 Phil Free
Phil Free's picture

And shit is GOING to happen. And -- how soon will it be?  Place yer bets!!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:14 | 4278012 monopoly
monopoly's picture

That is truly amazing. They never learn.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:20 | 4278018 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

make favorite

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:25 | 4278025 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

This is not gonna end well.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:22 | 4278026 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Greater fool and his money...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:26 | 4278029 kedi
kedi's picture

QE. Making stupid  money, even more stupid. With little consequence. Because the stupid, will be spread out to the smart and the too poor to be so stupid. Your tax dollars at work. Forever.....

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:24 | 4278030 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Tell me again - how much profit does Twitter make?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:56 | 4278097 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Its not about profit, this time its different, Its all about volume!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:22 | 4278154 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Exactly.  It's different this time because companies that don't make a profit have reached a permanently high plateau.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 03:31 | 4278613 MeelionDollerBogus
Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:26 | 4278031 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Well, if Amazon and its baseless growth in Market Cap are any example, Twitter can triple in value from here easily.

I ain't buyin' it, though.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:26 | 4278032 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

All that matters is there being another sucker.

It has always been so.  It's what makes markets, markets.

Hey, buddy, wanna buy a bridge?  Yeah, da Brooklyn bridge,  I got da title right here.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:28 | 4278038 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

because the supply of greater fool will never end ...

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:32 | 4278047 Argos
Argos's picture

SELL!  Sell everything (except PMs) now.  I can read the entrails as well as anyone.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:34 | 4278054 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Sure, they don't make a profit, but they'll make up for it in volume!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:33 | 4278057 Blame Crash
Blame Crash's picture

Bitcoin by another name.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:17 | 4278637 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Wrong. BitCoin has real, practical value. TWTR, not so much.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:36 | 4278062 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Seems about right, using the 80/20 Rule:  80% are Twits.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:44 | 4278075 Debugas
Debugas's picture

i like tulips more

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:53 | 4278093 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Some clever person will work out how to use Twitter to trade virtual Tulip bulbs, Billion dollar idea!!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:28 | 4278166 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Stealing Soros György idea [George Soros], we'll place a put on the stock for all social media ventures.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:49 | 4278084 buzzsaw99
Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:28 | 4278683 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

How prophetic that the mascot is singing Spinning Wheel by Blood Sweat & Tears

"What goes up, must come down......."

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:50 | 4278087 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Got  Emu Eggs?

 

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/article3739111.ece

 

A private firm engaged in emu farming here has been charged with cheating investors of their promised monthly returns.

The police on Tuesday registered a case against eight persons, including the chairman and managing director of Susi emu farms at Perundurai, M.S. Guru. The district administration also launched a detailed probe into what is suspected to be a scam involving several crores of rupees.

On another note check this graph.

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2013/12/08/crash2-are-all-bets-off-after-spring-2014/

Which timescale and why?

We’re heading towards that two-week period now where a combination of gift-buying panic, holiday plans and liquid lunches will take many eyes off many balls, and reduce volumes in most markets. But we’re not quite there yet: there is still next week, and still a lot of nervous taper angst out there.

All it will take is a big enough chunk of savvy selling (which most of us won’t see until too late), or a tipping-point bulletin from Europe, or a chance remark by the Fed….or all of those. And maybe others still….like interest rate hints.

But whether or not such triggers have any effect before the great anti-materialist’s birth is celebrated by an orgy of materialism, the time is almost nigh come what may. In recent weeks, stocks have continued to roar to new all-time highs. In many cases, rises massively exceed real expectations for earnings growth. “I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 25% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets,” warned Nomura’s Bob Janjuah in a recent note to clients.

Personally I am also concerned about the number of “bollocks” stocks there are in the top twenty. They include things like Facebook and Ebay which – although they look like excellent medium term bets – still struggle to convince me – given in many cases an absence of real profit – that the long term business outlook for them is that great…or that the short-term prognosis isn’t that they’ll be the first ones to take the hit. Even Google I find madly overpriced, given the number of ‘intelligent search’ threats I believe it may face.

 

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 20:56 | 4278100 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

But my twitter button is blocked when viewing websites. How can you make money reselling private information?

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 21:19 | 4278143 Misanthropia
Misanthropia's picture

Prepare for a Twit-Out!

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:10 | 4278250 smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

Anytime a mo'stock trades it's entire float in a day, it's a disaster in the making

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:25 | 4278269 arrogantchef
arrogantchef's picture

No bubble to see here... move along

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 22:34 | 4278286 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

OTOH, six or seven of those other very profitable companies are government-supported.  They're "healthcare".

Get the government out of the picture.

Thu, 12/26/2013 - 23:24 | 4278403 artless
artless's picture

They're gonna have to redo this list in a few years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubLxic5FkTw

I especially like the part about "the realistic assumption of infinite and growing advertising budgets, [that] will promptly eclipse not only the revenues but certainly the earnings and cash flows of all the below-listed companies"

Beacuse, of course it only make sense that MOAR will be paid to advertise a product than what the seller will get for it.

Meanwhile the lemmings pile over the cliff with their 401ks, pension funds,  get assraped by Wall Street in the way of fees and  commissions along the way, until the day that Uncle Sam comes along a just takes it. For the children, of course.

Carry on!

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 00:10 | 4278467 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Exactly what William Dudley of the NY fed wants, infinitely increasing stock indexes.

A hyper-bubble market. Still has a ways to go.

Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, said at least 15%/year appreaciation.

2014-year-end target for the S&P 500 of 2,220. They will pump it there no matter what.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-19/chicago-fed-evans-unveils-2014-year-end-sp-500-target?page=1

Federal Reserve controls rates, unemployment and stock indexes. Amazing. Like North Korea and the communist party.


Fri, 12/27/2013 - 04:07 | 4278630 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

If its in a bubble now what will it be next month as it traded through 100? 

 

I've gotta figure its just managers buying it with other peoples money so they can say that they have twitter in their portfolios. 

 

What the hell do asset gatherers care about the price or something or if it is a good trade or not?  They just need to wrangle more people into their funds to gather more assets and live fat on the fees. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 06:06 | 4278679 Come in Number 51
Come in Number 51's picture

#Dont_fight_the_bubble

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 07:38 | 4278714 katchum
katchum's picture

Twitter should set up some ads or fees, will immediately become very profitable. 

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:03 | 4278776 robochess
robochess's picture

It's not the price. It's the money.

Fri, 12/27/2013 - 09:25 | 4278796 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

MOAR SHITSHOW FOR EVERYONE!!!!!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!